0:00:02 > 0:00:04Hello and welcome along to our latest thoughts on how the weather's
0:00:04 > 0:00:07going to pan out in some detail over the next four or five days
0:00:07 > 0:00:09but then we'll just push the horizon into the body of next week.
0:00:09 > 0:00:13The script for this week is that we start the week fairly quietly.
0:00:13 > 0:00:16That was the way of it on Monday, we'll repeat that on Tuesday.
0:00:16 > 0:00:19By Wednesday and Thursday, things get very wet and very windy,
0:00:19 > 0:00:21as you will see, and then the end
0:00:21 > 0:00:23of the week turns much, much colder.
0:00:23 > 0:00:25So let's do that stage by stage.
0:00:25 > 0:00:28As I say, Tuesday, bit of a replica of Monday,
0:00:28 > 0:00:30a lot of settled weather around, say,
0:00:30 > 0:00:31for the northern and north-western parts
0:00:31 > 0:00:33of Scotland, wet and windy fare here.
0:00:33 > 0:00:35A little bit of brightness around,
0:00:35 > 0:00:378 to 10 degrees,
0:00:37 > 0:00:39not too bad at all.
0:00:39 > 0:00:40But this is where we begin to see
0:00:40 > 0:00:42the first signs of a change,
0:00:42 > 0:00:43especially across northern and western parts
0:00:43 > 0:00:45of the British Isles
0:00:45 > 0:00:47because this low pressure
0:00:47 > 0:00:49is going to gradually drag its wind
0:00:49 > 0:00:52and rain into those northern and western areas.
0:00:52 > 0:00:54How much wind? Well, it could be a gale,
0:00:54 > 0:00:56small comfort perhaps, but it gives us
0:00:56 > 0:00:58the mildest day of the week with
0:00:58 > 0:01:00the temperatures widely in double figures,
0:01:00 > 0:01:02that's the last time I will be saying that
0:01:02 > 0:01:04in this particular forecast.
0:01:04 > 0:01:06As the low pressure churns its way
0:01:06 > 0:01:09up towards the coast of Scandinavia,
0:01:09 > 0:01:11we begin to see the last of the mild,
0:01:11 > 0:01:13south-westerly winds slipping away
0:01:13 > 0:01:15towards the near continent
0:01:15 > 0:01:17and notice the temperatures.
0:01:17 > 0:01:18In Norwich, for example,
0:01:18 > 0:01:2011 degrees in the morning
0:01:20 > 0:01:22as we tuck into some of that cold north
0:01:22 > 0:01:24and north-westerly wind,
0:01:24 > 0:01:25we conclude the day in Norwich
0:01:25 > 0:01:27at around about 8 degrees
0:01:27 > 0:01:28and falling, as you will see.
0:01:28 > 0:01:30Notice the number of isobars here.
0:01:30 > 0:01:33This is a very deep area of low pressure.
0:01:33 > 0:01:35That could be severe gale force,
0:01:35 > 0:01:37if not storm force, winds
0:01:37 > 0:01:39coming down the eastern shores
0:01:39 > 0:01:41and coming from a very cold direction
0:01:41 > 0:01:42because as we kick into
0:01:42 > 0:01:44a north and north-westerly,
0:01:44 > 0:01:46we just tap into that reservoir of cold air,
0:01:46 > 0:01:49just sitting there waiting
0:01:49 > 0:01:50to the north of the British Isles.
0:01:50 > 0:01:53So Friday, across all parts of the British Isles,
0:01:53 > 0:01:55will be a cold day.
0:01:55 > 0:01:57The showers will be wintry,
0:01:57 > 0:01:59not necessarily just on the higher ground,
0:01:59 > 0:02:02given that that will be the temperature profile,
0:02:02 > 0:02:04add in the strength of the wind in the east,
0:02:04 > 0:02:07you could be closer to feeling like -4,
0:02:07 > 0:02:08rather than +2.
0:02:08 > 0:02:11And as we start the weekend, not a deal of change,
0:02:11 > 0:02:14still a lot of isobars on the chart,
0:02:14 > 0:02:15especially so through
0:02:15 > 0:02:17central and eastern parts.
0:02:17 > 0:02:18Still plenty of showers,
0:02:18 > 0:02:21especially along those eastern shores,
0:02:21 > 0:02:23North York Moors, absolutely seeing
0:02:23 > 0:02:24a covering of snow here
0:02:24 > 0:02:25and other the high ground
0:02:25 > 0:02:27across northern and eastern parts.
0:02:27 > 0:02:29Towards the latter part of the weekend,
0:02:29 > 0:02:31this high pressure just trying
0:02:31 > 0:02:32to tumble in to calm things down
0:02:32 > 0:02:33across the western side
0:02:33 > 0:02:34of the British Isles,
0:02:34 > 0:02:38but my eye is fixed on the area of low pressure, throwing frontal
0:02:38 > 0:02:42systems down towards the western side of the British Isles.
0:02:42 > 0:02:43Now as that low pressure drags
0:02:43 > 0:02:44its way down across
0:02:44 > 0:02:46this south-western quarter,
0:02:46 > 0:02:50if you are properly in the mild air associated with that low pressure,
0:02:50 > 0:02:55then I think you're going to see leaden skies and it will rain.
0:02:55 > 0:02:56Here comes the "but" -
0:02:56 > 0:02:58if, however, as that low pressure
0:02:58 > 0:02:59comes down and across
0:02:59 > 0:03:00the south-western quarter
0:03:00 > 0:03:02of the British Isles,
0:03:02 > 0:03:03you're more likely to be
0:03:03 > 0:03:05in the colder air,
0:03:05 > 0:03:09then I think you're going to stay in that rather wintry regime
0:03:09 > 0:03:12and there will be some ice, there will be some snow.
0:03:12 > 0:03:15The uncertainty comes in the boundary between -
0:03:15 > 0:03:18where is the warm air, where is the cold air?
0:03:18 > 0:03:19I think it'll be colder
0:03:19 > 0:03:20in the north and east,
0:03:20 > 0:03:21I think it'll be milder
0:03:21 > 0:03:22in the south and west,
0:03:22 > 0:03:24but where's the slow going to fall
0:03:24 > 0:03:26on that boundary level
0:03:26 > 0:03:28and just how much? See you soon.