:00:27. > :00:32.This is BBC World News Today with me, Rajesh Mirchandani.
:00:33. > :00:35.It's getting too close to call, but could Scotland be
:00:36. > :00:37.Scottish voters will decide next week.
:00:38. > :00:40.Now one poll says a majority favour independence.
:00:41. > :00:42.And we'll see what happened when people in Quebec in Canada also
:00:43. > :00:45.thought their bid for independence was about to become a reality.
:00:46. > :00:48.Also coming up, Iraq's parliament votes on a new government,
:00:49. > :00:50.a critical step in the fight against Islamic State jihadists.
:00:51. > :00:53.And a new Royal baby is on the way here in Britain.
:00:54. > :00:56.Delight all round, but the Duchess of Cambridge is once more suffering
:00:57. > :01:00.It's early days, but we hope things settle down
:01:01. > :01:24.A referendum on whether Scotland should leave
:01:25. > :01:28.Now it's taken on new impetus because, for the first time,
:01:29. > :01:31.a poll has suggested that more Scots would vote for independence than
:01:32. > :01:34.The survey gave the pro-independence,
:01:35. > :01:45.The British pound has already fallen to a low against the US dollar. This
:01:46. > :01:55.report from Dundee. At campaign headquarters, they are
:01:56. > :02:00.on dawn to buy the value of the pound or shaky set prices. They say
:02:01. > :02:06.Dundee is yes city, so great has been the defection of Labour voters
:02:07. > :02:12.to the yes cause. What difference has the poll giving them a narrow
:02:13. > :02:18.lead made? Will it give yes voters pause, might there be a loss of
:02:19. > :02:22.nerve? To the contrary, I think as people start realising we can do
:02:23. > :02:27.this, people will find their nerve, people who perhaps before were a wee
:02:28. > :02:32.bit sitting on the fence, not convinced we will do it. Now they
:02:33. > :02:36.understand we can, they are finding their nerve. What will win it or
:02:37. > :02:41.lose it for the yes campaign is the ability to maximise the campaign in
:02:42. > :02:44.places like this, working-class Scotland where people's natural
:02:45. > :02:48.inclination in the past has been to vote Labour. To do that, they will
:02:49. > :02:51.have to reassure people that negative reaction in the
:02:52. > :02:58.international markets and the global economy will be short lived. The yes
:02:59. > :03:04.campaigners say it's Westminster that is stoking nervousness. The
:03:05. > :03:07.blame for any uncertainty has to lie with the UK government which refuses
:03:08. > :03:11.point blank to have sensible discussion with the Scottish
:03:12. > :03:15.government about a currency union and the kind of things that would
:03:16. > :03:21.help give reinsurance to those markets. Yesterday's a poll gave yes
:03:22. > :03:27.a 2-point lead, the first time they have surged ahead. An aggregate of
:03:28. > :03:31.recent polls suggest the pro union side's commanding lead has almost
:03:32. > :03:35.vanished. I think we are winning the argument. We will win this
:03:36. > :03:38.referendum next week because I think, as people approach polling
:03:39. > :03:42.day, they will see the stakes couldn't be higher. We don't have to
:03:43. > :03:47.break up the country to make Scotland a better, stronger country
:03:48. > :03:52.in which to live. They've reassured by that in the other Scotland, the
:03:53. > :03:57.Scotland that still feels British to its core? At Kelso in the Borders,
:03:58. > :04:01.some are dismayed that the no campaign's leads seems to have
:04:02. > :04:06.evaporated in a month. I am worried about what's going to happen if
:04:07. > :04:12.Scotland goes independent, what's going to happen to my pension, my
:04:13. > :04:17.health care? And also my family, who live here? A very worrying time.
:04:18. > :04:22.It's a huge decision, the biggest we will ever make. You can change the
:04:23. > :04:27.government from time to time, every five years if you wish, but this,
:04:28. > :04:31.this is for ever. But the momentum is with the yes campaign now, pro
:04:32. > :04:35.union leaders must hope that action on more powers for the Scottish
:04:36. > :04:42.parliament, however late in the day, will halt that.
:04:43. > :04:45.If you're watching in Canada, this all might sound familiar.
:04:46. > :04:47.The vote for independence in Scotland has piqued
:04:48. > :04:52.the interest of many people in the mostly French-speaking province
:04:53. > :04:55.of Quebec, because they held two referenda on sovereignty.
:04:56. > :04:57.Both time, voters chose to remain in Canada, but the last vote
:04:58. > :05:02.So does Quebec's experience offer any lessons for Scotland?
:05:03. > :05:12.The BBC's Nick Bryant has been to Quebec City to find out.
:05:13. > :05:14.A pageant through the streets of old Quebec city, retelling
:05:15. > :05:23.the story of the settlements of what was then called New France.
:05:24. > :05:25.The British conquest in the mid-18th-century meant Quebec
:05:26. > :05:29.The province has retained its Francophone character, even though
:05:30. > :05:35.Festival organiser Stefan Perrin exemplifies the separatist dilemma.
:05:36. > :05:38.He sees himself as a Quebecer first and a Canadian second.
:05:39. > :05:41.But like many Scottish voters, he fears the economic consequences
:05:42. > :05:47.Are we going to be still with the Canadian dollar?
:05:48. > :05:51.Are we still going to trade with our neighbours, Ontario?
:05:52. > :05:56.Is it going to be that easy to trade with the other Canadian provinces?
:05:57. > :06:00.How would the Americans consider us if we decided to separate, to split?
:06:01. > :06:04.Those were big concerns for a big part of the population.
:06:05. > :06:07.In their decades-long struggle, Quebec separatists have suffered
:06:08. > :06:14.Adding to the agony, they came within 1% of securing a
:06:15. > :06:21.The lesson from Quebec for Scotland is that independence is a multiphase
:06:22. > :06:24.affair, according to the politicians who advised the SNP.
:06:25. > :06:31.They just had a new parliament in 1997 and now they are already having
:06:32. > :06:39.To me, if it won't work this time, it might next time.
:06:40. > :06:42.From laws protecting the French language to control over
:06:43. > :06:46.immigration, Quebec has achieved a great deal of autonomy.
:06:47. > :06:49.But another lesson for Scotland - that's thought to have dampened
:06:50. > :06:55.Despite two separate referenda, despite the fact the last poll was
:06:56. > :06:58.almost 20 years ago, the question of independence hasn't really been
:06:59. > :07:06.In Canada, they even have a phrase to describe this long-protracted
:07:07. > :07:14.constitutional struggle - they call it the Neverendum Referendum.
:07:15. > :07:17.But for all the celebrations of Quebec's distinctive culture,
:07:18. > :07:21.there's no great appetite right now for a third referendum.
:07:22. > :07:24.Many feel that the history of this province has not yet reached
:07:25. > :07:29.Independence - that struggle may be more a part
:07:30. > :07:41.With me is Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, an international market
:07:42. > :07:43.research firm that measures of public opinion and consumer
:07:44. > :07:55.You have already corrected me on the plural of referendum being
:07:56. > :08:05.referendums, so thank you, but your organisation at the weekend put the
:08:06. > :08:08.yes campaign ahead 51-49 at the weekend, I'm undecided voters. What
:08:09. > :08:15.should we take away from that one snapshot of just over 1000 voters?
:08:16. > :08:19.Firstly, it's too close to call. A 2-point lead does not definitely
:08:20. > :08:23.show yes is in the lead, it's within the margin of error. However we have
:08:24. > :08:28.shown a progressive closing of the gap from a few weeks ago, and if we
:08:29. > :08:32.look into the innards of the poll, especially people we have questioned
:08:33. > :08:38.more than once, what is absolutely clear, a number of no voters are
:08:39. > :08:44.switching to yes, and a lock of the undecideds are making up their minds
:08:45. > :08:49.going much more to yes than to no. The move towards yes is real, recent
:08:50. > :08:57.and big. So more importantly there is a trend, why is there a trend
:08:58. > :09:02.towards yes in the latter stages? The reason is that the no campaign
:09:03. > :09:08.was built very much on the fear factor, that Scotland's economy and
:09:09. > :09:12.prosperity would be at risk. Those fears are subsiding. More and more
:09:13. > :09:14.people think London is bluffing. When a London government says
:09:15. > :09:22.Scotland couldn't keep the pound, which is what Alex Salmond says it
:09:23. > :09:27.wants... He has been leading the yes campaign. The argument over the
:09:28. > :09:32.pound is a thing that the no campaign has been hammering. That is
:09:33. > :09:36.right, London has been saying you are independent, sort out your own
:09:37. > :09:40.currency. Alex Salmond is saying, of course we are part of the pound and
:09:41. > :09:44.when push comes to shove, London will have to come to terms...
:09:45. > :09:49.Increasingly, people are agreeing with Alex Salmond. Secondly, the
:09:50. > :09:58.fear is that Scotland's economy will go down the tubes. Those fears are
:09:59. > :10:03.subsiding. A further factor, Alex Salmond, if you stay in the union,
:10:04. > :10:07.you are going to be subject to Tory policies, Tory laws coming from
:10:08. > :10:11.London, a Conservative led government. The biggest group moving
:10:12. > :10:16.across are Labour supporters. A month ago, only 18% of Labour voters
:10:17. > :10:21.in Scotland said they would vote yes. That has doubled in a month to
:10:22. > :10:27.35%. Alex Salmond is playing the Tory London card and winning a lot
:10:28. > :10:32.of Labour voters. The politics may lead to a result one way or another,
:10:33. > :10:37.but let's internationalise for a second. If the Spanish government is
:10:38. > :10:43.watching, they have a population in Catalonia that wants a referendum,
:10:44. > :10:51.maybe the QuebecoISwatching, what will people make of this if Scotland
:10:52. > :10:57.goes independent? -- the Quebecois. It is not the first time parts of
:10:58. > :11:00.countries have seceded, you had checkers wackier breaking up into
:11:01. > :11:08.the Czech Republic and Slovakia, but it would be the first time a stable
:11:09. > :11:12.economic country has spread out like this. -- you had checkers wackier
:11:13. > :11:19.breaking up. It is not civil war, economic upheaval, anything like
:11:20. > :11:25.that, this is a reasonably stable, healthy, civil society saying
:11:26. > :11:29.perhaps, narrowly in ten days' time, we choose to go our own way and
:11:30. > :11:34.cease to be part of the United Kingdom. I think people in
:11:35. > :11:41.Catalonia, Quebec, other places around the world are saying, if they
:11:42. > :11:46.can do it, perhaps we can too. It's a big deal, Peter. Thank you. Ten
:11:47. > :11:54.days to go, I imagine we will be having you back.
:11:55. > :12:14.In Baghdad, a vote has begun to form a new government for the country.
:12:15. > :12:18.It is considered to be a key step in the struggle against Islamic State.
:12:19. > :12:20.Iraq's parliament is reconvening to try to approve a new government.
:12:21. > :12:23.It's a critical step in the fight against Islamic State
:12:24. > :12:25.militants who are occupying parts of Iraq and Syria.
:12:26. > :12:28.On Sunday, the Arab League promised to do its part to stop
:12:29. > :12:31.The town of Duluiyah briefly fell to the Sunni-dominated Islamic State
:12:32. > :12:34.group for few days in July, but the Jabour tribesmen,
:12:35. > :12:37.who have aligned themselves with the Iraqi forces in the battle against
:12:38. > :12:45.Jim Muir is in Irbil. Where is Baghdad in putting together this
:12:46. > :12:49.elusive, inclusive government? It does seem to be happening. The
:12:50. > :12:53.session of Parliament began a short while ago. It got off to a rocky
:12:54. > :12:58.start, quite a lot of barracking from MPs. Quite a number stayed out
:12:59. > :13:09.in the corridors and didn't actually join proceedings going on inside.
:13:10. > :13:12.Some bad vibes there. A prime ministerial nominee is currently
:13:13. > :13:14.addressing parliament laying out the programme, and he will shortly
:13:15. > :13:18.introduce the ministers he has chosen to implement that and will
:13:19. > :13:23.ask for a vote of confidence in them. In his opening address, he
:13:24. > :13:28.talked about an administrative revolution, he talked about
:13:29. > :13:31.decentralisation, introducing balance within the Armed Forces,
:13:32. > :13:38.which is very important because the current Iraqi army is seen as a bit
:13:39. > :13:41.of a Shia militia, certainly a bit weak on the Sunni front. The whole
:13:42. > :13:44.idea of this new government is to bring everybody on board, that is
:13:45. > :13:48.what the Americans and others are looking for. We have yet to hear him
:13:49. > :13:54.confirm the names of his ministers, but we have been told pretty much
:13:55. > :13:57.what to expect. The Sunnis have got the defence Ministry, which they
:13:58. > :14:02.would be happy about because that should put them in charge of the
:14:03. > :14:07.army. The Shia have got the interior ministry. The man nominated there is
:14:08. > :14:12.a Shia militia organisation, closely tied to Iran, so that may raise some
:14:13. > :14:18.eyebrows. Otherwise, a lot of reshuffling. Well-known Foreign
:14:19. > :14:22.Minister will become a Deputy Prime Minister. The Foreign Ministry job
:14:23. > :14:28.that he has had for eight years, being the face of Iraq to the
:14:29. > :14:30.outside world, will go to Ibrahim Jeffrey, a Shia politician who was
:14:31. > :14:36.Prime Minister before the outgoing Nouri al-Maliki. We do expect this
:14:37. > :14:44.government to be voted on and presumably passed in the coming
:14:45. > :14:46.minutes. It might be a bit of a long night for you. Keep us updated.
:14:47. > :15:01.Thanks, Jim. Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko
:15:02. > :15:03.has said that pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine have released 1,200
:15:04. > :15:04.prisoners. He was speaking during a visit to
:15:05. > :15:07.the strategic south-eastern port city of Mariupol, the last city
:15:08. > :15:11.in Donetsk region still held by the Ukrainian government,
:15:12. > :15:13.which has come under shelling from The announcement follows Friday's
:15:14. > :15:16.ceasefire deal, which has been described
:15:17. > :15:19.by the head of the OSCE as shaky. Meanwhile the EU says it's imposing
:15:20. > :15:21.further sanctions on Russia because of its continued involvement
:15:22. > :15:23.in the crisis in Ukraine. Russia has responded by saying
:15:24. > :15:37.it may block some international Through all of this, it's the people
:15:38. > :15:41.in the region who continue to suffer.
:15:42. > :15:54.To the neighbours, who watched them grow up.
:15:55. > :15:58.The family want the story of Carolina, aged six, and her disabled
:15:59. > :16:07.Shellfire killed them both on the day the cease-fire was declared.
:16:08. > :16:13.She was taking care of them when they were killed.
:16:14. > :16:18.She cries, God, why have you taken them?
:16:19. > :16:24.Like Nikita and Carolina, they lived in places where land
:16:25. > :16:28.became something men were willing to kill for.
:16:29. > :16:31.Children faced death and displacement with their families,
:16:32. > :16:35.driven to makeshift camps like this old Soviet era holiday resort.
:16:36. > :16:37.The propaganda pictures of forgotten heroes yellowing
:16:38. > :16:47.The war has distorted life and disrupted normality.
:16:48. > :16:51.I want to go home, but there is no home to go to, she says.
:16:52. > :17:00.In the crowded bunk rooms, medical aid is being provided,
:17:01. > :17:05.including the help of psychologists for traumatised children.
:17:06. > :17:08.They have of course been traumatised by the conflicts, hearing shelling
:17:09. > :17:12.and bombs, fleeing their homes and not being in their normal
:17:13. > :17:17.environment. It has a huge impact on the psychology of those children.
:17:18. > :17:19.It is a serious situation for those displaced people.
:17:20. > :17:24.If the conflict continues, this will worsen, definitely.
:17:25. > :17:27.The cease-fire is supposed to end the random cruelty that destroys
:17:28. > :17:31.the lives of children like Nikita and Carolina.
:17:32. > :17:43.But for their parents, it is a truce empty of meaning.
:17:44. > :17:45.Now a look at some of the day's other news.
:17:46. > :17:48.The World Health Organisation says the ebola virus is spreading
:17:49. > :17:54.It's warning that many thousands of new cases may emerge there in the
:17:55. > :17:58.next three weeks and that measures to stop it spreading were not
:17:59. > :18:01.working. Liberia has recorded almost 1,100 deaths out
:18:02. > :18:12.Rescue workers are battling hard to reach villagers stranded
:18:13. > :18:14.in remote areas of Indian administered Kashmir after
:18:15. > :18:25.Six days of rain have caused floods and landslides and killed almost
:18:26. > :18:28.three in 20 people. That my 320 people.
:18:29. > :18:31.A five-year-old British boy whose parents took him from a hospital in
:18:32. > :18:33.Britain last month has arrived in the Czech Republic for radiotherapy
:18:34. > :18:38.Ashya King has been at the centre of an international legal wrangle.
:18:39. > :18:39.His parents were arrested and detained
:18:40. > :18:57.We're -- to Afghanistan now, and more instability looms there because
:18:58. > :19:02.one of the two presidential candidates, Abdullah Abdullah, has
:19:03. > :19:05.said he will reject the outcome of the second round of the disputed
:19:06. > :19:08.election. The results are expected this week. The election has been
:19:09. > :19:14.gridlocked for months. Both sides allege voter fraud.
:19:15. > :19:17.With the disputed Afghan election process now entering its
:19:18. > :19:22.one of the candidates, Abdullah Abdullah, has had enough.
:19:23. > :19:30.He said he would not accept the results of the audited vote
:19:31. > :19:32.as he believes it has not discovered fraud and despite
:19:33. > :19:35.a personal appeal from President Obama, he told me that talks for a
:19:36. > :19:38.government of national unity, backed by the US, are at a dead-end.
:19:39. > :19:41.The future Afghanistan, which will be a viable partner with
:19:42. > :19:48.the international community, to be able to deal with the challenges,
:19:49. > :19:51.the challenges that Afghanistan has faced or global peace has faced in
:19:52. > :19:54.this part of the world, could not be based on the foundation
:19:55. > :20:11.The announcement was made to a room packed with supporters.
:20:12. > :20:14.One prominent backer, a former head of the intelligence service,
:20:15. > :20:15.said the deal had foundered because
:20:16. > :20:19.A political settlement, ensuring equal partnership, should
:20:20. > :20:24.The timing of Dr Abdullah's announcement was highly charged,
:20:25. > :20:36.coming as Afghanistan prepares to commemorate the death of the former
:20:37. > :20:37.guerrilla leader killed in 2001,
:20:38. > :20:42.Dr Abdullah appealed to his followers not to protest
:20:43. > :20:45.violently, but his message that he would not recognise a government
:20:46. > :20:48.that may be about to come to our that does not include his people
:20:49. > :20:52.Dr Abdullah has appealed for peace, but at the same time,
:20:53. > :21:02.he has said that any negotiations are now over and that he won't
:21:03. > :21:03.accept a government led by his opponent.
:21:04. > :21:11.This feels like a very dangerous moment for Afghanistan.
:21:12. > :21:13.The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge have announced that they are
:21:14. > :21:17.The Duchess, who is still in the very early stages
:21:18. > :21:20.of pregnancy, is suffering once again from acute morning sickness.
:21:21. > :21:23.This time, she is being treated by doctors at Kensington Palace.
:21:24. > :21:28.The BBC's royal correspondent Nicholas Witchell reports.
:21:29. > :21:32.William was there at a long planned visit to Oxford
:21:33. > :21:35.today, but Catherine couldn't make it, and Kensington Palace realised
:21:36. > :21:38.that it would have to explain the reason for her unexpected absence.
:21:39. > :21:41.She was pregnant with the couple's second child, the Palace said,
:21:42. > :21:46.So William was asked, how was she feeling?
:21:47. > :21:52.It has been a tricky few days for a week or so.
:21:53. > :21:59.I'm hoping things can settle down and she will feel better.
:22:00. > :22:02.It's important we all focus on the big news,
:22:03. > :22:09.That is where my thoughts are at the moment.
:22:10. > :22:12.In December 2012, early in her pregnancy with George,
:22:13. > :22:15.doctors hospitalised the Duchess for a couple of days.
:22:16. > :22:18.On this occasion, with this pregnancy yet to reach the 12 week
:22:19. > :22:21.stage, it is hoped the sickness can be managed at home and that it
:22:22. > :22:27.George was a summer baby, born in July last year.
:22:28. > :22:31.The chances are that his younger brother or sister will be due in the
:22:32. > :22:37.He or she will automatically come fourth in line to the throne,
:22:38. > :22:40.fulfilling William and Catherine's obligation to ensure that
:22:41. > :22:57.The Queen, seen here at the Braemar Gathering near Balmoral at
:22:58. > :23:01.I think George will be over the moon.
:23:02. > :23:09.The family continues to grow. a younger brother or sister.
:23:10. > :23:18.News of the pregnancy is making headlines around the world.
:23:19. > :23:24.International fascination with Britain's royal family
:23:25. > :23:41.Hugo Vickers is a writer and broadcaster and he joins us from our
:23:42. > :23:46.studio in Reading. You have written extensively about the Royal Family.
:23:47. > :23:49.This is interesting, married couple expecting second baby. Why is that a
:23:50. > :23:55.story that has lit up headlines around the world and social media?
:23:56. > :23:58.Of course, it is a very happy story, and the monarchy has been doing for
:23:59. > :24:04.many generations. So anything to do with the monarchy always attract
:24:05. > :24:08.attention. But it is because the Cambridges themselves are such a
:24:09. > :24:14.popular figure. Wherever they go in the Commonwealth, they seem to make
:24:15. > :24:18.people feel happy. So we are all very much on their side and
:24:19. > :24:22.rejoicing alongside them that there is more good news on the way.
:24:23. > :24:27.Everyone seems to be getting in on the congratulations. I was looking
:24:28. > :24:33.at Twitter and apparently, the royal baby # has been used 50,000 times,
:24:34. > :24:37.the worst one from an international pizza chain that says
:24:38. > :24:42.congratulations. May we humbly suggest naming the royal baby Pizza?
:24:43. > :24:48.I will not name that chain! Everyone seems be getting in on the act. It
:24:49. > :24:52.is internationally big news. It is. At the time of the royal wedding,
:24:53. > :24:56.everybody got excited about Prince William. I know that royal weddings
:24:57. > :25:00.are a cause of great excitement, but I remember wondering at the time why
:25:01. > :25:06.this was so much the case with him. I think the real reason was that the
:25:07. > :25:09.world had probably last seen Prince William when he was a forlorn
:25:10. > :25:13.teenager following his mother's coffin, and he didn't go off the
:25:14. > :25:16.rails. He went through school and universe tea and met a nice girl
:25:17. > :25:21.with freedom of choice. They are clearly happy together and that is a
:25:22. > :25:25.great story. I think it has gone on like that. The arrival of Prince
:25:26. > :25:31.George was very much welcomed, and wherever Prince George has been
:25:32. > :25:35.taken, he is a huge success. Funny you should talk about that, because
:25:36. > :25:38.I remember at the time of the royal wedding, I interviewed the Queen of
:25:39. > :25:42.American journalism, Barbara Walters, who said that was the
:25:43. > :25:46.reason America were going crazy about the royal wedding, because
:25:47. > :25:48.everybody remembered the tragedy of Diana, and now they have something
:25:49. > :25:53.happy to talk about. We also saw in that report, Prince Harry was saying
:25:54. > :25:58.great, I am not going to be king. There is also an issue for this
:25:59. > :26:02.second baby. Prince George is the heir to the throne and now there is
:26:03. > :26:09.a spare as well, as they say. Yes, that is the traditional duty as your
:26:10. > :26:11.commentator said. They must keep the Protestant succession going. It may
:26:12. > :26:17.be that they will have another child after that. Of course, supposing
:26:18. > :26:20.they have a girl, she would automatically be after Prince
:26:21. > :26:24.George. If there was a younger brother, he would not overtake her
:26:25. > :26:30.the wake since Andrew and Prince Edward overtook Princess Anne. So
:26:31. > :26:34.that is a change. And Will this child be born as a prince or
:26:35. > :26:38.princess of the United Kingdom? Will Scotland be involved? We hope so.
:26:39. > :26:42.That is a whole new area of conversation. Sadly, we don't have
:26:43. > :26:50.time to get into that. Thanks for joining us. And thank you as well
:26:51. > :27:03.The weather is looking fine and settled for the next few days and
:27:04. > :27:06.for the week ahead, with high pressure in charge. Tomorrow could
:27:07. > :27:10.have a misty start of the day, but sunny spells are soon developing. We
:27:11. > :27:15.could start Tuesday morning on a chilly note, particularly from any
:27:16. > :27:19.rural areas, but that mist and fog soon clears away. We are looking at
:27:20. > :27:20.bright skies. Perhaps