29/10/2015 BBC Business Live

This is Business Live from BBC News with Ben Thompson and Sally Bundock.

Oil giant Shell posts a $6 billion loss compared to a year ago as

falling prices and BIG write-downs drag on the bottom line.

Live from London, that's our top story on Thursday 29th October.

Across the board - Shell's results have nose dived,

with plans for drilling in the Arctic and Alberta shelved.

Can the oil giant turn its fortunes or is this the new normal?

Also in the programme - the novel way to spread

Google is on course to use helium balloons to connect

And a mixed picture for markets. We will have all the details for you

And we will be taking "time" out to talk about the

lucrative business of selling high end watches and jewellery.

Brian Duffy - the boss of Aurum Holdings - the biggest

British distributor of Rolex and Cartier time pieces will join us.

And as one woman admits to spending 6,000 dollars a week outsourcing her

chores we want to know what would you pay someone else to do for you?

Oil giant Shell has announced third quarter results

The company posted a $6.1 billion loss -

a huge slide into the red compared with a profit of $5.3 billion

One of the main factors, unsurprisingly,

Brent prices have been hovering around $50 a barrel

and Shell has said that will cost them billions as the weak price is

And that fall is dragging on Shell's market value.

Shares are down by more than 17% since the beginning of the year.

Another reason for the lacklustre share price - Shell's proposed

After spending over $7 billion searching for oil in the Arctic, the

company announced last month that it would be pulling out of the region

It has written off $2.6 billion in this latest report.

And another project was shelved just this week - Shell said it will take

a $2 billion charge as it ends an oil-sands project in Alberta.

Elet us get analysis. A lot of big numbers there and they are mostly

bad news numbersers how bad is it? It is an enormous loss. It's the

most valuable company in the FTSE 100, so what happens to Shell really

matters. The thing is that projects that make

sense when e most valuable company in the FTSE 100, so what happens to

Shell really matters. The thing is that projects that make

sense when oil is at 100 $s a barrel don't make sense at $48s a barrel.

Also, the, parts of Russia where there are Shell projects there. So

if you think of Shell like a sort of sinking balloon, what they are

trying to do is chuck over the heaviest objects they have got to

regain altitude because the gravitational pull is down because

of the fall in oil prices we were talking about. And that going to

stay in the downward direction and people are saying $50s a barrel is

going to be the new normal for some time. How long will the blood

letting last for? We have seen the same with BP and the boss of Shell

have said, we need to make these businesses competitive, with oil at

$50-60 a barrel. They are adjusting for a new normal. They are looking

at places which are lower cost producing. As all of the additional

supply sources get abandon the secure to low prices is low prices

because people stop investing, the seeds of the future price spike in

oil is being sown now. Don't rule out a return to high prices in the

future. Investors are keeping the sweet ens in there, to keep

investors pension funds onboard, to keep them hanging in. BP and Shell,

between them paid something like 15% of all tiff depends in the FTSE 100,

so they are massively important. So they are trying to keep investors on

side. They know they will have to go back to them, so they need to keep

them in return so they keep them onside. A lot more analysis on the

business page online. Deutsche Bank has just announced

it will axe 15,000 people from its The lender said it would cut 9,000

full-time jobs and 6,000 external contractor

positions as Germany's biggest bank It plans to dispose

of $4.7 billion worth of assets. The bank has just reported a third

quarter loss of $6.6 billion. Samsung posted

its third-quarter earnings today, revealing that - the company is

back to operating profit growth made $6.42 billion in operating

profit during the Q3 period, a hefty The South Korean tech giant

attributed its overall profit increase to

strong shipment growth in its smartphones, including the S6 Edge+,

the Note five, the A8, and the J5. The European Union says emissions

tests for new models of cars will be changed to ensure that that harmful

nitrogen oxides are measured under real-world driving conditions -

not just in a test lab. The new rules will come

into effect from 2017. Emission testing has come under

scrutiny since the Volkwagen scandal when so called cheat software was

used to manipulate results. It is looking at stories as they

break. Let us look at some of the raking stories now. We mentioned

Shell of course, there is lots of other companies with news, Lloyds

bank, Barclays is very much in the news, we will talk about that later

but Lloyds bank as well, share sale confirm. The crucial thing is that

the Government stake below 10%. It has been slowly returning it to

private hands, ahead of that big sell off at the end of the year.

Some progress there. Progress for Lloyds, Barclays results have come

through, we will talk about that in a second. There is more news about

Deutsche Bank. All the banks have been to readjust their business

models in a similar way to the oil giants, talking about Shell and BP.

We have had Total earnings, the French oil company doing better than

the likes of Shell, increasing its production, which is bucking the

trend among the oil majors, Total Let's go to China,

where a top-level Communist party meeting where the nation's economic

and social policies for We're waiting for the official

announcement - but expecting John Sudowrth is in the town

of Rudong in Jiangsu province province once held up as a model

for that policy, but now weighed There are too few young people to

support the population. That is right. It's a County of one million

or so people, and there has been nowhere in China that has been quite

ass enthusiastic as this place, in terms of enforcing the one child

policy, and the results are now everywhere to see. One of them,

right here behind me. Closed schools, almost half of the schools

in this County have closed their doors over the past decade or so.

And although this has been the most enthusiastic enforcer of the one

child policies, the rest of the country is not so far behind. So

what they are looking at here, is staring into the abyss of that

demographic time bomb. Falling birth rates, falling worker numbers and

this real economic drag on growth, and that is why some people suggest

that it is now high time that the issue, they have been encouraging to

do so for a long time by analysts and advisers and a lot of

speculation it will be at this party, in this plan we will see the

back of the one child policy. As you say we could hear that announcement

imminently. If they went from, to a two child policy is it would take

decades get a communique this evening which

may give us some hints about the sort of direction of travel. But

analysts we have spoken to say that they are certain in the end it will

be confirmed that this issue will be in there, although as you say, the

big concern is that even allowing everybody to have two children will

still not do enough to boost the population, and will still leave

China with this giant change. Thank you John.

So that is what the markets in the region are done, you see the Nikkei

up 0.2%. Really all eyes on the fed last night, America's central bank

signalling that interest rates could rise as soon as December, that was

enough to push the Dow up. A tougher tone than its last meeting, but what

is interesting is that tougher tone came despite weaker economic data.

If you look at the data. The possibility of more moves by the

European Central Bank, but, borrowing costing soared. We will

get more on that in a moment but I want to take you to Europe. It has

results from the likes of Barclay, results from the likes of Barclay,

Shell, BT. Deutsche Bank, a mixed bag, that has left the markets mixed

over the course of early trade. Bar kiss profited down sharply. Not a

shuerge price. BT seeing a 15% rise in profit, and Santander up posting

a near 5% rise in profit, but as we said Deutsche faring worse.

Announcing plans to cut more jobs. But of coarse those details

filletsering there. We will assess them later. What about the US? We

have more on what we can expect out of the US today, particularly those

long' waited GDP numbers. On Thursday we will get a look at

American economic performance in the third quarter which is likely to

show the US recovery is not as robust as thought. GDP expanded at a

1.5% rate. If true, that would mark a slow down from the second quarter.

The GDP report will serve as a barometer for how well the US is

handling weakness oversea, growth was likely head back by trade and

fallen exports. Analysts will see if lower oil prices encouraged more

consumer spending and if the housing sector made gains, which could help

off set the weak economy. Watch out for earnings results from MasterCard

and Starbucks. Growth numbers coming out, other

figure, earnings, give us your take on the US, in the light of the fed

and last night. That is right. So the focus is now back to will the

data be strong enough for the fed to move in December? Previously, last

month in September, markets had assumed that rate rises for 2015

were really off the table. It was a 2016 story. But last night, the

commentary took away that... That bit about overseas economies and

market, turbulence we saw in August, that really unnerved the fed and

took away that impetus for rate rice. The door is wide-open. It S we

have seen markets move to discount that, so from a one third chance to

half a chance now. By December. So it all moves round. It did. It does.

Let us touch briefly on Deutsche, we have heard about the job loss, not

wholly unexpected, we knew they had to cut costs but the latest figure

15,000. Significant number. Very big numbers, they are under pressure to

do a number of thing, to lower the cost, so clearly staff cuts are part

of that lower cost part, and the other aspect is to raise capital,

now they have done two things, they have suspended their dividend for

the next two years, so that will retain resources within the company

and help that capital number and they will be selling is off parts of

the business. Some staff will clearly go with the new business

owners but that will also reduce the capital requirements for the

remaining Deutsche group. OK, thank you Sue. Sue will be back in five

minutes to look at some other stories. Still to come it is an

age-old industry but there is a new player in town, can the smartwatch

ever take on the luxury watch makers? And faced with a slow down

in key markets for luxury goods we will meet the boss of watches of

Switzerland as well as other outlets as it plans a major expansion.

Let us discuss Barclay, because it is among those out with earnings

today, reporting pre-tax profits of 861 million, that is for the three

months to end the of September. That is half the profit the bank posted

for the second quarter, our business editor has the details. A

significant fall but once again, a company that we weren't expecting

anything amazing and this confirming what we thought might happen?

Barclays, yes, slightly treading water at the moment. They are the

second of the Big Four UK banks to report. Yesterday we had Lloyds,

tomorrow RBS and Monday HSBC. As you say, their profits slightly softer.

Statutory profit, year or year are up slightly. ?560 million for

foreign exchange mis-selling provisions and issues around

mortgage-backed securities in America. Let's look at the share

price this morning. Slightly soft profits, share price slightly down.

Over the last six months, interesting things. This is when

Anthony Jenkins, the previous chief executive, was fired. Investors

quite liked that, they thought they might be a new focus on the

investment bank. And recently the new Chief Executive was announced. A

little uptick in the share price. What we are really waiting for is

their full-year results, March one next spring. That's likely to be the

chief executive's first outing in public in the UK and people here

will be seeing what kind of Chief Executive he wants to be for

Barclays. We'll watch closely to see what he manages to do with the bank.

Thank you. A report will be released today to

talk about how a government initiative will allow more women to

get into the boardroom. They set themselves a target of 25% of women

on the boards of fifth -- FTSE 100 companies. They are expected to say

they have reached new milestones as far as that is concerned. That

picture is Martha Lane Fox. She's on the board of Marks and Spencer. Now

they want to extend it to the boardrooms of FTSE 250 companies and

they want to increase that target to 33%.

Clearly implications about whether quotas are the way to do that, but

nonetheless some progress there. You're watching Business Live -

our top story: Profits at the oil giant Shell have

slumped, posting a $6 billion loss as falling oil prices take

a bite out of its bottom line. Has the humble wristwatch had

its day? Or does new technology mean that

the craftsmanship and design that goes into watchmaking is more

important than ever? Well, our next guest probably agrees

that watchmaking is alive and well. Brian Duffy is the chief

executive of Aurum Holdings. Aurum runs luxury and jewellery

stores like Watches of Switzerland, It operates 139 shops across Britain

and employs more than 1,500 people, with plans to expand into the US

and Europe. They are currently the Crown

jeweller and have a Royal warrant from both

the Queen and Prince Charles The average timepiece costs

around ?10,000 - about $15,000. The group is Britain's biggest

distributor of Rolex, Patek Philippe, Jaeger-leCoultre

and Cartier watches. Just to give you an idea,

the global jewellery and watches market had a total revenue

of $290 billion in the last year. And that represented a growth rate

of nearly 7% between 2010 and 2014. I'm not wearing a watch today, I was

too ashamed! Thank you for coming in. Before we talk about watches,

let's find out how you got into this business. You've been working in the

realm of luxury goods for some time. When the luxury goods player Ralph

Lorenzo knocked on your door, you watch on a career break studying

rock and roll. I was at the Academy of contemporary music in Guildford

doing rock 'n' roll and blues and jazz, something I'd always wanted to

do, study and learn guitar and music. Rav Lauren came knocking and

your reaction was? It was irresistible. I've always loved

Ralph Lauren. I effectively became the first president for Europe, a

big new beginning for the brand. Right place, right time and an

irresistible knock on the door. But I did regret not finishing my

degree. Let's talk watches. It's an age-old industry, but we are talking

about high end luxury watches, $10,000, $15,000. These are not just

timepieces, they are things you inherit and pass on. It's about an

investment not necessarily a product. It's the wonders of

mechanical craftsmanship. They are precious materials. They are family

heirlooms. They work every minute of every hour of every day of every

year for your life and hopefully the life of generations to come. They

are beautiful things to have. How do you convince people to part with

that sort of cash in a market or an environment where the recession has

taken its toll on some of the luxury goods maker 's? Markets are slowing

down, like China. How do you convince people to part with cash

for something that will live well beyond them? On some of the luxury

goods maker 's? Markets are slowing down, like China. How do you

convince people to part with cash for something that will live well

beyond them? Honestly I call it rational indulgence. You don't need

it to tell the time, your phone can tell you the time, or something much

less expensive. But you're taking the money out of you your bank and

putting it on your wrist. They generally don't do appreciate,

values go up, they are made of precious materials which have gone

up a great deal recently. It's a wonderful thing to have and enjoy

and to pass on to the next generation. When it comes to

persuasion, how important are the marketing sites? The likes of George

Clooney and other big international stars becoming the face of a brand?

I know Oma go -- pomade is the watch 007 is wearing inspector and you

were at the premiere because your company is involved in the process.

How important is that the sales? Marketing is very important. The

image and association you want to have can be through celebrity

endorsement, sports endorsement. Rolex, visibility at Formula one for

example. Marketing is important for those brands who have global reach.

Some brands are very... They trade on discretion because you have to go

and find them. You've been with 2-1 for two years. What difference have

you seen in terms of how to sell? Is it easier to sell a luxury watch in

this environment rather than Ralph Lauren clothing? With the cooling of

the global economy and the emerging market economy, people are thinking

more about value. We can offer value. They are financial

investments. That's a tougher argument if you're talking about

fashion or high heels. Interesting when this March watch does a million

thing and this is a watch that simply tells the time and date. -- a

smartwatch. Interesting to meet you, thank you for coming in, but we've

run out of time. That was a joke! Everybody is

catching on. Here's a reminder of how to get

in touch with us. The web pages where you can stay

ahead of the news. We'll keep you up-to-date with the latest details,

insight and analysis from the BBC's team of editors around the world.

And we want to hear from you. Get involved on the web page. Or on

Twitter. And you can find us on Facebook. On TV and online.

Keep your messages coming in, particularly about things you would

like to outsource. We'll run through some of those in a second. Sue is

back with us to look at some of the stories in the papers. We want to

talk about this Google story. It is amazing. This massive project to

launch balloons into space. To create more bandwidth for areas that

can't have, because of their geography, fibre networks or antenna

networks. The balloons go up into the air and beam down bandwidth that

will broadly make a 4G network available to a number of Indonesian

islands. Indonesia is a very large, populous country and that the moment

they are struggling to get connected. About 50% of people are

not connected. This is one way, a cost-effective way, for Google to do

it. It only takes 300 balloons to make a continuous string around the

world, I'd imagine it would be much more. They will start off with a

regional area, but that's claim. They go 20 kilometres up in the air.

You can get quite a decent range on the ground. It sounds like a crazy

project, Micah Richards Branson kind of project. We'll see how it works

out. -- Richard like -- like a Richard Branson project. Let's talk

about outsourcing in your private life. This is a mother in Sydney who

is said she's spent $6,500 outsourcing things like cleaning,

shopping, cooking. And a nanny. She has five children.

$6,500 a week! About ?3000 a week. $4500. That's a lot of money. She

says it's worth her while because she gets to spend quality time with

her family, a bit of time for herself, enough sleep. She can

afford it. Many working women and dads who can't afford to outsource

the chores, unfortunately. We've been asking people to get in

touch. The common theme is coffee, someone to buy copy for you in the

morning. We share that feeling! Thank you for sending those in. What

would you outsource? I do outsource some things. The things that take a

lot of time, that allow me to have time to spend with my family. Spend

money on the things you don't want to do, that's why you earn money.

Thanks so much for coming in. Thank you for your company today.

Thank you for your comments about my glasses, they've made their debut.

We like those! You can wear those again. See you soon.

Good morning. The general story today is of rain crossing from west

to east across the country with sunny skies following on. A wet

start