20/07/2016 BBC Business Live


20/07/2016

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This is Business Live from BBC News with Ben Thompson and Sally Bundock.

:00:00.:00:10.

So it's official, Donald Trump is the Republican

:00:11.:00:12.

He has announced tax cuts for the rich and a hard-line on trade.

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Live from London, that's our top story on Wednesday, 20th July.

:00:29.:00:39.

He's vowed to slap tariffs on Chinese imports and build a wall

:00:40.:00:42.

We'll take a look at what Donald Trump's policies

:00:43.:00:50.

could mean for the US economy and the rest of the world.

:00:51.:00:53.

Also on the programme: As the UK's new Prime Minister vows to get tough

:00:54.:00:57.

She wins the backing of the world's biggest fund managers.

:00:58.:01:04.

She'll also meet European leaders for the first time later.

:01:05.:01:06.

And markets look like this in the first half hour of trade.

:01:07.:01:10.

The latest UK jobs numbers are due in the next hour.

:01:11.:01:13.

It's the size of a small coffee machine and can diagnose

:01:14.:01:16.

Later in the programme we'll speak to the inventor of Samba,

:01:17.:01:23.

an award-winning medical device aimed at tackling one of the world's

:01:24.:01:26.

Today we want to know what would make you pay

:01:27.:01:29.

How about a billboard naming and shaming those who ve

:01:30.:01:35.

This is what's happened in China, is it a sensible move

:01:36.:01:41.

And we're starting today in the US where Donald Trump has been formally

:01:42.:02:00.

nominated as the Republican candidate for the US

:02:01.:02:02.

Next week Hillary Clinton is due receive the formal stamp

:02:03.:02:07.

So what could the presidency of Trump or Clinton mean

:02:08.:02:15.

Both hold vastly different views over tax and the size of the state.

:02:16.:02:19.

While Hillary Clinton believes the richest people in society

:02:20.:02:21.

Donald Trump is staunchly opposed - saying he favours slashing tax bills

:02:22.:02:28.

for the highest earners as well as those on lower incomes.

:02:29.:02:31.

On the minimum wage - while both are in favour of reducing

:02:32.:02:35.

the tax burden for the least well-off, the Democrats have also

:02:36.:02:38.

proposed raising the minimum wage to $15 per hour.

:02:39.:02:41.

Trump has previously said he's against any changes.

:02:42.:02:46.

But recently he's softened his language, meaning there could be

:02:47.:02:49.

a rise in the federal minimum wage from $7.25 an hour

:02:50.:02:52.

Despite their differences, both candidates are united

:02:53.:02:58.

in opposing the controversial trade deal known as TPP.

:02:59.:03:04.

It involves 12 Pacific Rim countries but Mr Trump has already

:03:05.:03:07.

vowed to impose significant tariffs on goods imported

:03:08.:03:09.

With me now is Tom Packer, Fellow of the Rothermere American Institute,

:03:10.:03:22.

Nice to see you Tom. Do you know more about what their economic ideas

:03:23.:03:35.

are? Yes, I would emphasise that in particular in the case of Mrs

:03:36.:03:43.

Clinton deference to the currents within their political party.

:03:44.:03:46.

Growing concerns about inequality and she, I think, is sympathetic to

:03:47.:03:51.

it and is responding to it. From her point of view, will it be an

:03:52.:03:56.

evolution of what Barack Obama has introduced or any significant

:03:57.:04:01.

change? That's, I think that's the idea, a slightly more sceptic view,

:04:02.:04:05.

higher minimum wages. Having said that, she has to get all this

:04:06.:04:08.

through Congress and there is a limit to how much she can push the

:04:09.:04:13.

board on executive actions and Congress is Republican controlled.

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What about Mr Trump? Mr Trump is very different from Mrs Clinton who

:04:18.:04:21.

has been high level in US politics for a quarter of a century. Still

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mosty the same themes. The biggest difference is on trade. If you look

:04:30.:04:33.

at his language clear, it is not clear that he is that protectionist.

:04:34.:04:37.

Anyone looking from the outside in will think, "What does it mean for

:04:38.:04:40.

trade with the United States and will we suddenly see tariffs being

:04:41.:04:44.

slapped on left, right and centre in the talk of protecting the US

:04:45.:04:48.

worker?" Mrs Clinton, I think it won't be that different from Barack

:04:49.:04:52.

Obama. There is a big protectionist movement in her party. She is has a

:04:53.:04:55.

long history of opposing trade deals in election years and deciding they

:04:56.:05:00.

are a good idea when they're not. Mr Trump is less predictable than Mrs

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Clinton, but when one looks at the Republican platform, it is

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surprising how little change there has been. Once he is president, he

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may decide there are more good deals than it looks like at the moment. To

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what extent is the economy on the minds of the voter this time? I

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think reasonably so and there is some signs of softening, of course,

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but at the moment, I think it has been relatively low for an election

:05:28.:05:32.

year, less so than 2012, but all it would take is bad economic news to

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force the economy up the agenda. Thank you for coming in. Very

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interesting and we shall keep across it whether you like it or you don't.

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We will be on the sclams a long way to go before we get to a result in

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the US Presidential elections, but we will keep you up-to-date.

:05:50.:05:51.

Three States have taken lawsuits against Volkswagen. New York's

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Attorney-General called the use of the defeat devices a widespread

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conspiracy. VW says the allegation are not new and the car maker has

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been co-operating with US authorities. Eurostar cancelled for

:06:15.:06:21.

trains today. The firm suspended three train services on Tuesday and

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a further six services have been cancelled today. Trains between

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London, Brussels and Paris are all affected. Eurostar is urging

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customers to check the website before setting off.

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Brazil's Supreme Court has overruled a decision ordering mobile phone

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operators to block access to the messaging service Whatsapp.

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The president of the court said the ruling had been disproportionate

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because the app is so widely used in Brazil.

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It's the third time in two years that WhatsApp has been threatened.

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An important day for UK Prime Minister, Theresa May. She is

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meeting Angela Merkel in Berlin. It is the first time that the two will

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talk as leaders of European countries. Fa delity backs Theresa

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May's pay plans. They are saying they are right behind her in her

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views when it comes to what bosses earn in comparison to those who work

:07:22.:07:25.

for the bosses. The crux of this debate is about so-called long-term

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thinking. So pay packets, remuneration deals that reward

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long-term thinking rather than simply short-term results. So not

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just based on purely the profits over the course of a year, but what

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they can manage to deliver in the longer term and they say that should

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be the way to pay bosses. That's Dominic Rossi and that's a company

:07:48.:07:52.

that manages $250 billion worldwide in assets. So they feel they have a

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voice. More on that online. Now Pokemon fever. It has been

:07:55.:08:13.

moving share prices. Nintendo's share in Japan actually fell. They

:08:14.:08:17.

fell 15% on news that the release of the game could be delayed in Japan.

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Let's find out why. First, Charlotte Glennie

:08:22.:08:25.

is in Singapore. Why the delay? It has been reported

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there will be a delay and there has been a rally in the Nikkei that

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lasted several days with investment excitement in the Pokemon Go craze.

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Until today when this reported delay was announced and this led the

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shares to die, ending down more than 12%, but there is a winner out of

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this, Sally and that's shares in McDonald's Japan are up, nearly 10%.

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This follows reports that the fast-food company been the game's

:09:01.:09:06.

first sponsor and will act as a gym for Pokemon Go players where they

:09:07.:09:10.

can battle against each other and get new Pokemon characters. It is

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expected to bring customers flocking to McDonald's. When that will be

:09:15.:09:18.

nobody knows because there is not an official launch date for the game at

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this point in Japan. Charlotte, thank you.

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It still amazes me that investors get so excited by effectively

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cartoon characters! Nonetheless, Japan's Nikkei ending the session

:09:35.:09:38.

down a quarter of a percent breaking the seven-day winning streak. Partly

:09:39.:09:43.

blamed on a bit of profit taking. As we heard from Charlotte, shares in

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Nintendo falling after the reported delay for the launch in Japan. It

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does show how much is riding on the success of that game after that

:09:53.:09:56.

stellar growth off the back of its success elsewhere in the world. A

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quick look at what Europe is doing. Yesterday we got the slight rise in

:10:03.:10:07.

inflation, today it is the turn of jobs data. Average earnings are

:10:08.:10:14.

expected to rise a little bit, but the overall unemployment rate,

:10:15.:10:17.

probably going to stay about 5%. Of course, it is possible that that

:10:18.:10:21.

means firms put off hiring in the run-up to the election, the EU

:10:22.:10:26.

referendum, but, of course, it is more likely the real impact will be

:10:27.:10:29.

felt a little later on as firms decide what it actually means for

:10:30.:10:32.

them in the real economy. So we'll talk about that in a moment.

:10:33.:10:36.

Michelle has the details about the day ahead on Wall Street. Two

:10:37.:10:40.

companies watching Softbank's purchase of Arm Holdings with great

:10:41.:10:51.

interest are Intel. Key for Tin tell's future is

:10:52.:10:57.

lessening its dependence on the PC market which is shrinking, but

:10:58.:11:00.

profits at the largest chip maker got a boost after the PC market did

:11:01.:11:04.

better than expected in the second quarter. Prospects for Coolcom

:11:05.:11:16.

aren't so rosy. Analysts are predicting a drop this third quarter

:11:17.:11:20.

revenue. The results from the big banks continue to roll in. Goldman

:11:21.:11:23.

Sachs turned in an impressive performance on Tuesday. Can Morgan

:11:24.:11:28.

Stanley keep up the momentum when it turns in its report card?

:11:29.:11:36.

Lots of earning stories coming out of the States.

:11:37.:11:42.

Joining us is David Buik, Market analyst, Panmure Gordon.

:11:43.:11:47.

You wanted to mention Goldman Sachs. They are had better than expected

:11:48.:11:55.

results, but you are not so sure. I think the whole global equity market

:11:56.:11:59.

has been brought forward on a wave of quantitative easing and Central

:12:00.:12:02.

Bank co-operation, I don't think there is any doubt about that

:12:03.:12:04.

because this is the fourth quarter in the United States where the

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quality of earnings have fallen. Easily the worst performing sector

:12:10.:12:13.

is banking and I wanted to highlight Goldman Sachs because everybody will

:12:14.:12:16.

say, well, you know, it is not terribly good, but actually when you

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consider that their share price a year ago was $186, today, it is

:12:22.:12:26.

$186. They had a desperate first quarter, but there was a $2.7

:12:27.:12:31.

billion fine for litigation which they haven't got that time. But the

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fee earning from M and A activity, which of course, they blame on

:12:38.:12:43.

Brexit, was down by 18% to 1.35 million, earnings per share was up

:12:44.:12:50.

from 97 cents, sorry, a dollar 97 to 372. Shares fell 2% because

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everybody went, "OK." The reason I'm mentioning it is because look over

:12:56.:12:59.

your shoulder into Europe and particularly Italy and also Germany

:13:00.:13:03.

and Spain, all is not well. Away from the corporate news, economic

:13:04.:13:07.

news, unemployment figures in the UK, it is expected to stay steady,

:13:08.:13:12.

but we will be keeping an eye on the earnings figure because that's the

:13:13.:13:15.

bit that means we will have a bit more money in our pocket? We might

:13:16.:13:21.

just see a slight slither down because of the effect of Brexit and

:13:22.:13:24.

people not being prepared to employ ahead of the results. These things

:13:25.:13:31.

are always in the past or rather historical so maybe above 1.6

:13:32.:13:34.

million. Thank you, David. David will be back later. He has got lots

:13:35.:13:38.

of issues to tackle including the naming and shaling of those who owe

:13:39.:13:41.

money on billboards. We will talk about that later!

:13:42.:13:50.

It is the size of a small coffee machine, but it can diagnose HIV in

:13:51.:13:54.

two hours. You're with Business Live from BBC

:13:55.:14:01.

News. When is a worker not a worker? It is

:14:02.:14:07.

an important legal question that's being grappled with in an employment

:14:08.:14:15.

tribunal today. It involves Uber the taxi hailing app. It has shaken up

:14:16.:14:19.

the taxi business across the world and its cars carry the Uber brand

:14:20.:14:24.

but the drivers are self-employed. A group of 17 drivers backed by the

:14:25.:14:28.

GMB Union are claiming the American company is not respecting basic

:14:29.:14:32.

workers' rights. They say that drivers should receive holiday pay

:14:33.:14:39.

and a minimum wage. Theo Leggett is in our business newsroom. Just talk

:14:40.:14:44.

us through, it is a really controversial issue?

:14:45.:14:49.

the fundamental thing is, is Uber a technology company or a transport

:14:50.:14:55.

company. It might seem like a strange distinction but it's not

:14:56.:14:58.

because of Uber is our technology company, need to which connects

:14:59.:15:03.

customers with drivers. Those drivers can then be considered

:15:04.:15:06.

self-employed so they don't have certain employment rights like an

:15:07.:15:08.

entitlement to the national minimum wage, holiday pay, sick pay and so

:15:09.:15:14.

forth. But if Uber is a technology company, then they don't have those

:15:15.:15:16.

rights. It's a complicated issue and rights. It's a complicated issue and

:15:17.:15:20.

one that is Uber is fighting not just in the UK but around the world.

:15:21.:15:25.

How significant is it for Uber that the drivers ourselves and void? As I

:15:26.:15:30.

said, it means it is effectively cheaper for them to offer the

:15:31.:15:34.

service. If it has to pay the national minimum wage and benefits,

:15:35.:15:39.

that increases its bottom line so it has to pay more. It can't offer as

:15:40.:15:44.

cheap service. Uber's selling point is that it is cheap convenience.

:15:45.:15:48.

It's a key point but not just for Uber. It affects other businesses

:15:49.:15:53.

that operate in a similar model. For example, parcel delivery services

:15:54.:15:57.

operate a similar model in some cases where the drivers are

:15:58.:15:59.

effectively self and void. If it goes against Uber, they might be

:16:00.:16:03.

next in the firing line. -- self-employed. Thank you for joining

:16:04.:16:08.

us. Yellow gets talking through the implications of that lawsuit into

:16:09.:16:14.

Uber. -- Theo Leggatt. It could set a prospect for other comp -- a

:16:15.:16:18.

precedent for other Company is around the world. Let's take you to

:16:19.:16:21.

the web page because a lot of stories on there that we have

:16:22.:16:25.

already covered on the programme including UK jobs figures due later.

:16:26.:16:29.

Also, if you are planning to travel by Eurostar, information about

:16:30.:16:33.

today's disruption on the business live page so look there for updates,

:16:34.:16:34.

as well as their own website. Donald Trump has been unveiled as

:16:35.:16:47.

the public nominee for the US president. He has vowed to protect

:16:48.:16:50.

the country from cheap imports and has also announced he will slash tax

:16:51.:16:55.

bills if he is voted into power. A long way to go yet.

:16:56.:16:57.

A quick look at how markets are faring.

:16:58.:17:02.

All in the green which makes the change but keeping and I them in the

:17:03.:17:07.

next 45 minutes, when we get the latest jobs figures in the UK that

:17:08.:17:08.

could affect them. Let's get the Inside Track

:17:09.:17:10.

on the battle to stop the spread Yes, when it comes to tackling

:17:11.:17:13.

epidemics, it's certainly true that Following a successful

:17:14.:17:17.

career working at a global pharmaceutical company,

:17:18.:17:23.

Dr Helen Lee moved into academia. In 2002, she founded

:17:24.:17:25.

her medical company, Diagnostics For The Real World,

:17:26.:17:29.

which aims to commercialise the technologies developed

:17:30.:17:33.

at Cambridge University. The company works with medical

:17:34.:17:37.

charities around the world, and retains up to 15% of the profits

:17:38.:17:40.

generated from her inventions. Last month, she won

:17:41.:17:44.

the prestigious Popular Prize at the European Inventor Awards

:17:45.:17:47.

for her ground-breaking device. The so-called Samba device

:17:48.:17:51.

is the size of a small coffee machine and can diagnose HIV

:17:52.:17:54.

in under two hours at a cost That is the thing that could make it

:17:55.:17:59.

so worthwhile. With us is Dr Helen Lee,

:18:00.:18:11.

Chief Executive, Diagnostics It is a real pleasure to have you on

:18:12.:18:21.

the programme. We can see the machine rights next EU. Talk us

:18:22.:18:26.

through how it works. Usually, this particular test would take a machine

:18:27.:18:32.

the size of a Mini, and it can only be done in centralised laboratories.

:18:33.:18:37.

The idea is to reduce the size, such that it can be carried on the back

:18:38.:18:41.

of a motorbike. That is in our design goals. The chemicals are heat

:18:42.:18:49.

stable and do not require cold storage or cold transport. Other

:18:50.:18:54.

agents, something like 88 reagents, are put into a unique cartridge, and

:18:55.:19:00.

that can only go one way, and you couldn't get it wrong. So you can

:19:01.:19:05.

put this in the middle of an African village in the heat and the dust and

:19:06.:19:08.

it would still work effectively and you don't need anyone with any

:19:09.:19:14.

medical knowledge to work this device. Those who live in the

:19:15.:19:19.

village can do it themselves. It is so simple. I always say, anyone who

:19:20.:19:24.

can cook can do it, obviously that leaves half of the men out! We will

:19:25.:19:28.

get a reaction to that comment straightaway!

:19:29.:19:32.

I not getting involved but the interesting and important thing is

:19:33.:19:35.

the idea that currently, without this machine or one like it, people

:19:36.:19:39.

have to travel quite a long way to get to a clinic. They would go and

:19:40.:19:42.

have a blood test and the requirement would be that they have

:19:43.:19:45.

to go back several weeks later to get the results. 70% of people don't

:19:46.:19:49.

do that. Whereas with this, they could do it immediately and get the

:19:50.:19:54.

results straightaway and take the appropriate action immediately.

:19:55.:19:59.

Exactly. The question is, this is fantastic, the provision of this and

:20:00.:20:05.

I understand it's a question of government and non-government

:20:06.:20:07.

organisations and charities that are helping this be available in

:20:08.:20:11.

developing countries but what about the care and the help that they need

:20:12.:20:16.

when they have got the diagnosis? That is the problem. Years, as proud

:20:17.:20:22.

as I am of this machine, it is only a tool. -- yes. Unless it is linked

:20:23.:20:27.

to care and appropriate care, you will not have the whole chain. The

:20:28.:20:32.

idea and the goal is really to treat people effectively. I must say, it

:20:33.:20:36.

is already being used in villages in Malawi and Uganda. More than 90% of

:20:37.:20:42.

the results are given to the people on the same day. I see these women

:20:43.:20:49.

and children sitting on the lawn because there is no waiting room and

:20:50.:20:55.

I don't know how they get there. I don't see any buses. It is very

:20:56.:20:57.

critical to give them the results and appropriate care at the same

:20:58.:21:08.

time. What I think will be critical is to implement it in many

:21:09.:21:12.

countries, linking it to the appropriate drugs, and to that

:21:13.:21:16.

extent, we have so far raised almost 100 million euros for the

:21:17.:21:19.

development of this machine from charitable organisations like the

:21:20.:21:27.

welcome trust and the UN's children's investment fund. But I

:21:28.:21:29.

think much more funding will still be necessary to really implement it

:21:30.:21:34.

for the benefit of the patients. Thank you for joining us. It is a

:21:35.:21:39.

fantastic machine and quite light. I picked it up. I can imagine trekking

:21:40.:21:43.

across large areas with that in a backpack or something. And attic.

:21:44.:21:48.

May I just say, it is really the work of the team, like Leicester!

:21:49.:21:55.

Wonderful. Do you cook? I do. I'm not part of

:21:56.:21:59.

that 50%. Thought we had better establish

:22:00.:22:00.

that. It's been a busy time for earnings,

:22:01.:22:08.

including Microsoft, swinging back to profit. All as a result of it

:22:09.:22:11.

Cloud compute in business. Quarterly profits came

:22:12.:22:12.

in at $3.1 billion, reversing the $3 billion losss in the same

:22:13.:22:14.

period last year. When Satya Nadella took over

:22:15.:22:17.

at Microsoft two years ago he said the future of the company

:22:18.:22:25.

was in Cloud computing services. That strategy seems to be paying off

:22:26.:22:29.

with the latest results beating Revenue from Microsoft's Cloud

:22:30.:22:32.

services have grown by 100% in the last three months

:22:33.:22:40.

and subscription sales of the Office software suite have been strong,

:22:41.:22:44.

adding up to a $3.1 billion profit This time last year,

:22:45.:22:47.

he was telling investors the company had lost $3.2 billion

:22:48.:23:02.

thanks to its disappointing acquisition of Nokia's

:23:03.:23:04.

mobile phone business. With that deal behind the company,

:23:05.:23:05.

last month Nadella made his biggest gamble yet, spending $26 billion

:23:06.:23:08.

on the business social The company is expected

:23:09.:23:11.

to integrate the service with its own business products soon,

:23:12.:23:14.

further boosting its Cloud division. There was one note of caution

:23:15.:23:20.

from Microsoft, however. It admitted it would probably

:23:21.:23:22.

miss its target of 1 billion devices David Buik, Market Strategist,

:23:23.:23:25.

Panmure Gordon - is back I understand you make a killer

:23:26.:23:41.

scrambled eggs. Not a lot bettered in the realm. I'm not normally

:23:42.:23:44.

arrogant about this but they are the best and I always make a blinding

:23:45.:23:48.

spaghetti Bolognese. Can you run shuts scrambled egg in time for

:23:49.:23:52.

Business Live, we can get it on the table? Bring the ingredients. Lets

:23:53.:23:59.

not talk about eggs but excessive pay, see what I did there? Vowing to

:24:00.:24:06.

clamp down on it. Now the backing of a big hedge funds. It's interesting

:24:07.:24:11.

point. She was very exposed about this in what I thought was an

:24:12.:24:13.

excellent delivery on Downing Street. I think she really means it.

:24:14.:24:19.

What we need to do, as you pointed out before, is the coordination of

:24:20.:24:26.

boards, whether they have workers, members, women on it, and also,

:24:27.:24:30.

trade union membership and the rest of it because we have to close the

:24:31.:24:33.

pay gap between those that have and those that have not. I think it is

:24:34.:24:38.

extremely important. But without the full coordination, it's not going to

:24:39.:24:43.

work. The other thing I think people tend to forget, there's a huge

:24:44.:24:46.

difference between being a manager that manages a business and an

:24:47.:24:49.

entrepreneur, who has built the business up from nothing. It takes

:24:50.:24:53.

some unlike Sir Martin Sorrell. People resent his ?70 million bonus

:24:54.:24:57.

this year but I don't because it is his business, it has 132 companies

:24:58.:25:01.

in it he's built it up in the last 35 years from scratch. What about

:25:02.:25:06.

Bob Dudley at BP? You've chosen another bad one that I would support

:25:07.:25:10.

because politically, what he has done, staving off the problems in

:25:11.:25:13.

Russia and the US, he is worth his weight in gold but if you want me to

:25:14.:25:19.

go on to someone else, there's a big problem with money elsewhere. 'S

:25:20.:25:25.

bashing billboards with the names of the deadbeat debtors. This is the

:25:26.:25:29.

title in China Daily which is the state-sponsored newspaper. --

:25:30.:25:39.

splashing. It is not necessarily individual 's but companies that own

:25:40.:25:42.

mind. Is it a good idea question mark Diskerud especially when the

:25:43.:25:45.

small supplier is greed by the large company which makes it wait until it

:25:46.:25:51.

pays off and squeezes it out of business. Totally unacceptable but

:25:52.:25:53.

he would never get it through this country and the Court of Human

:25:54.:25:56.

Rights and all the rest of it would have their big boots all over it.

:25:57.:25:59.

But I think it's a lovely idea. Thank you for joining us. See you

:26:00.:26:02.

again soon, scrambled egg on toast next time he is with us. That is

:26:03.:26:06.

Business Live. Heat and unity going out with a bang

:26:07.:26:14.

across northern and western areas after what was the hottest day of

:26:15.:26:17.

the year so far yesterday with

:26:18.:26:18.

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