23/11/2016 BBC Business Live

This is Business Live from BBC News with Sally Bundock and Ben Thompson.

The UK Finance Minister gets set to announce billions

of pounds of new government spending amid forecasts

Live from London, that's our top story on Wednesday,

Increased funds will go to infrastructure,

research and those who are just managing, but will the national

Also in the programme - rumours Facebook is working

on censorship software to accommodate China's data requests

- the company has neither confirmed nor denied the reports -

Markets in Europe are mixed today, but everybody is celebrating on Wall

Street as the Dow goes above 19,000 for the first time.

The oil giant Shell serves 20 million customers a day

in its retail outlets that are attached to petrol stations.

So are they really a one-stop shop and what will the forecourt

It's Black Friday soon but some brands are scrapping big reductions.

We want to know, do you still wait for the sales?

Let us know - use the hashtag BBCBizLive.

The UK's Autumn Statement, which is just the Budget,

will be announced in a few hours' time.

It's especially important this time around because it's the first

fiscal plan that's been unveiled since Brexit.

And the UK leaving the EU means specific challenges

that the Government will have to face head-on.

Phillip Hammond is likely to pledge increased

?5 billion or $6.2 billion is the number being mentioned.

That's modest compared to say Donald Trump's one trillion dollars

Another area likely to get a cash infusion is research

and development in the science and tech sectors.

?2 billion - nearly two and half billion dollars -

will go to the industry, which is being touted

by the Government as a long term investment strategy

But the money to pay for this has to come from somewhere.

The government is likely to borrow ?100 billion over

With me in the studio is Kate Andrews, the news editor

at Institute of Economic Affairs, a conservative leaning think-tank

and in our Business newsroom our business editor Simon Jack.

Kate, if we look at what the Chancellor has to give away, there

is not much money in the pot? There is not a lot of wiggle room, is

there? Growth forecasts are down according to the Office for Budget

Responsibility and he is looking at higher inflation figures which is

why I think we are seeing stranger things in this Budget that have been

released. For example the big headlines are the fact that he is

going to try to ban letting fees this. Is something where the

Chancellor can come in and not have to commit any of his spending to

doing something that seems like he's trying to help those who are just

managing, but this is him basically skirting around the issue of the

housing crisis. He is not really in a position at the moment where he

can be flexible or bold in a lot of his statements. He has a looming

deficit and a debt that he's going to have to tackle. Simon Jack, Kate

outlining that there is not a lot of money really in the pot to be

distributed and also coming in that era of slowing economic growth.

That's what everyone will be keeping a really close eye on, won't they,

the forecasts? The news from today's Autumn Statement will be just

exactly how bad the public finances look over the coming years. Now

remember the original plan as early as just as soon as March of this

year, was that the Government wouldn't have to borrow any machine

at all by 2020. In fact, it would be getting more in in taxes than it was

spending. That's been ditched that as unrealistic. What we are going to

be looking at out for is how much money they will be borrowing per

year by the end of the Parliament. Some of the number crunchers reckon

it will be ?25 billion per year, that's adding ?25 billion every year

to a debt pile that the Chancellor has already called eye watering. So

what will be interesting is his language about about when he wants

to balance the books and over what time frame? It will not be some

date, it will be an aspiration, expect a lot of aspirations today

because aspirations are free and spend something not! Kate, do you

think he would hold back today, Philip Hammond, in terms of what he

may or may not announce, because he wants to wait for a Budget before an

election in 2020 and also a Budget that's during or after Brexit

negotiations? Certainly, well Brexit is that huge question mark, the UK

a net ?10 billion back. That it a net ?10 billion back. That it

would be normally paying to the EU, but it is not obvious that he will

have that money yet to play with depending on the relationship with

the EU going forward, some of that money might be going to the EU to

buy into the single market, perhaps. There is a big question mark for him

around what figures he is going to have to play with going forward, but

we should be concerned about the fact that the da debt is estimated

to be around 90% of the UK's annual GDP. It is staggering and it is not

money that can be put off forever. At some point future generations

will be taxed and borrowing will impact us and with Brexit looming

and everything, it is a gamble to be borrowing this much at this time.

Simon, the question is how much this is going to cost us as a result of

the vote to leave the EU? The very wildly ranging forecasts of what

that could mean? Yes, I think it will be tempting to look at the

March Budget and the way the OBR set out its plans there and look at this

one and compare the two and say the difference is the cost of Brexit and

over the next five years some will say that's ?100 billion. Economies

are dynamic things. It is difficult to ascribe one things. Are

businesses investing bes because of Brexit? Probably. Is inflation going

to be higher because of breaks snit Yes, because of the fall in the

pound. In today's forecast we will show that growth for this year looks

like it will come in exactly on target and yet we already know he's

going to miss his borrowing targets this year. Even when growth is on

target you can still miss your borrowing forecasts. So that Iing

that it is to do with Brexit, we have to be careful about how much we

definite ascribe to one phenomenon. Simon, thank you very much indeed.

Kate Andrews, news editor at the Institute of Economic Affairs,

really good to talk to you, thank you very much.

There is more on the website from the Autumn Statement. Special

coverage from our team who will stay across the announcements as they are

made. Special details there on the BBC News website. Just look for the

Autumn Statement 2016 section. Lufthansa has cancelled almost 900

flights after it lost a last-ditch The two-day strike began

at midnight local time. Lufthansa says about 100,000

passengers will be affected. The industrial action is part

of a long-running dispute involving 14 strikes in the past

two and a half years. Three Australian employees

of gambling group Crown Resorts, who were detained in China last

month, have been formally arrested. The three were among 18 Crown staff

held after a police operation, believed to target Crown's

marketing activities. Casino gambling and promoting

gambling abroad are The Japanese car maker Toyota

is recalling more than 800,000 minivans in North America over

concerns the sliding doors could open while

the vehicle is moving. The recall affects Sienna

minivans from 2011 to 2016. Toyota says it is still developing

a fix for the problem. Sally, you came up with a good fix?

I thought a lock might work well! The New York Times is reporting

Facebook has been working on a tool that could pave the way

for censoring certain content if the network

was ever to launch in China. Facebook has not confirmed or denied

the software's existence, It is learning more

about the country. Robin, tell us more about what

Facebook is supposedly thinking through? Well, the big question for

Facebook, it has one billion users, where does it get the next one

billion from? Facebook looks like that. You can't get it because it

hasn't been in this country since 2009. Mark Zuckerberg has a possible

solution. The potential here is vast. He met the president, we have

seen him running through the smog during visits in Beijing and we have

evidence, some might say in reports in the New York Times that Facebook

is trying to develop software which will allow it to exist in China and

exist by new rules and new laws that China insists on having if social

media giants are allowed to be here. That software will allow, according

to the New York Times certain content to be blocked from specific

geographic areas. Facebook and other social media giants do take down

some content, but this would allow third party actors, other companies,

to remove content at the behest of the Chinese Government. Very

interesting. Robin, thank you for filling us in.

Tell us what you think about that. Use the hashtag BBC Biz Live.

Most of the markets in Asia were higher. You can see hong don'ting

down at the close. The big story is the Dow. Going above 19,000 for the

first time, closing above that. You can see behind me there and all

markets in the US were at record levels at the close on Wall Street.

Let's look at Europe right now. Just to give you a sense of how the day

is progressing. All higher at the moment. It is a really interesting

time we're in. Is it a bubble we're experiencing in share markets? We

will talk about why we had a good session on Wall Street.

Here is Samira. Trading volumes will be light, but before carving the

turkey, there are a few bits of economic news to chew on the durable

goods orders for the month of October are expected to increase

1.5%. But non defence related capital goods orders are expecting

up 0.2%. Now, this is actually a closely watched number as it gives

us an idea of how businesses maybe planning on spending money going

forward. And new home sales, increase 0.3% in October.

Agriculture and construction equipment maker Deer are are

expected to report lower earnings due to a fall in products.

Mike Amey, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at PIMCO is here

People were reluctant to commit their money before the election

because of the uncertainty created over previous, you know, political

events, Brexit for example. So I think there was money on the side

and the two things that happened really has been the focus from the

Trump campaign about Government spending and that's obviously helped

US stock markets. A bit of money on the side. But the two together and

there you go. Above 19,000. That's right. The challenge at this point

is do we keep going up or do we take a pause for breath as you mentioned?

The pause for breath could be the Fed move next month, do you think or

not? What will be the reaction when from interest rates go up next month

which most people believe they will? So we and most other people expect

the Fed to raise rates next month which will be the second time

they've done it. We get minutes today, don't we? We do. I think

really what investors think about is on the one hand with Trump you have

this positive, you know, Government spending story. On the other, you

have this kind of withdrawing from global trade and all those aspects

of the Trump policy. The markets are focussed on fiscal spending. If we

get more focus on the trade then things could become a bit more

challenging. Mike, for now, thank you.

The oil giant has more shops around the world

than Starbucks or MacDonald's and with low oil prices

squeezing petrol income, it's looking elsewhere

You're with Business Live from BBC News.

Thomas Cook has reported a ?41 million fall in profits

after what it called a difficult year for tourism after terror

Theo Leggett has been looking at the figures,

We saw it with easyJet, and this time Thomas Cook. That is true, but

look at my graph, see what has happened to Thomas Cook's share

price, up 9%. That is a strong reaction, because investors believe

that things could have been a long worse. If you look at their

underlying profits today, ?308 million earned in the year against

310 million last year, which flatters things a little, because of

the effects of the fall in sterling, which massaged the figure is a bit.

If you strip that out, there is a fall of ?41 million. They had to

deal with a number of outside factors, especially a fall in demand

in travel to Turkey, one of its major destinations, especially for

its German business, and it saw a drop in numbers to Egypt and

Tunisia, but they have been working hard to move their destinations away

from the eastern Mediterranean and more towards the western

Mediterranean, the Spanish islands, for example. It was prepared for a

drop-off in passenger numbers to areas like Turkey. Therefore it has

done better than expected, and as you can see, investors are quite

happy about that. The latest results ad. As the owner pointed out, shares

going up and up, at a time expected. They could look at our page,

dominated by events today, it is all about the Autumn Statement in the

UK. And not from our colleagues at BBC Radio 4. The Chancellor to

gloomy about the economy, apparently, but infrastructure

projects are on the cards. What that could mean in terms of jobs and

economic growth. We are right across this for you,

you can follow Simon Jack, and others, on Twitter. The live page

will be updating throughout the speech. I have been told it will be

a short one. Due to kick off at 12:30pm, full

coverage on the BBC. The UK's Finance Minister is poised

to announce billions of pounds' worth of new Government spending,

but is Britain's national-debt We will have the forecasts for

economic growth as well. We will stay across that for you.

In a world of falling oil prices and squeezed profit margins,

the companies selling it are increasingly looking for other

And that's clear on the petrol-station forecourt.

Shell runs the biggest single chain of petrol stations,

it's got around 43,000 around the world.

Close behind are China's state-owned Sinopec, Exxon Mobil and BP.

Shell is increasingly using those sites to sell

It got through 250 million cups of coffee last year

In fact, in the US it's come full circle, and the stores now dominate.

Around 80% of all motor fuel bought in the US is sold in

Istvan Kapitany is the executive vice president at Shell Retail.

Good morning. Good start, I got your name right! You were smiling when we

talked about how much coffee and drinks you sell, but it is an

important point, an important source of revenue. How has that changed? It

is rapid change in the last ten years. 35% of the customers who are

coming to the 44,000 service coming to the 44,000 service

stations around the world are buying fuel only, and 50% of them are

buying convenience retail items, like offing. In the UK we have the

biggest Costa Coffee chain, almost every Shell service station has won.

That is really growing, we are introducing it in more countries,

with global partners. I can see how drinks and food are ages for fit,

because people wanted on the go. But you can also pick up strange things,

flowers, call for your fire, although anybody buying flowers from

a petrol station will get it for -- in the neck! But they are not

convenient things. It is growing, it is interesting how habits are

changing. In many countries, we are starting to sell what we should have

been selling for a long time. Steak and kidney pie in the UK! We are

still working on the fish and chips programme! We need to become more of

a convenience outlet around the world. That is what the Gucci must

tell us, the reason why be do this is not just because of the oil price

being low, because it is what the Gucci must would like. You have had

a challenging recent couple of years, the cost of lower oil prices,

and many of the kickabout Lolo oil forever now, so that is a world you

have to get used to. But also, how we are moving around this changing,

the driverless vehicles conversation, electric vehicles, all

of that kind of thing. How will you change? What will you do to

accommodate those changes in the future? These changes are not

entirely new, some of the elements are, but if you look around the

world, we are selling biofuel, we are the number one in the world. We

are the only company which produces second-generation biofuel, it is

very environmentally friendly. We are selling petrol and diesel, more

and more, with all of the changes, we need to adapt, so we are at the

forefront of building hydrogen service station networks in Germany

and the US, and we are starting in the UK next year. Hydrogen -- one

fella is three minutes, so it is a good proposition. As you move into

that realm, hydrogen, biofuel or a battery change, cost is important.

From that point of view, I assume you are in a position of strength,

it is a brand we all know, wherever we are. It is more than 100 years,

it is a trusted brand, we have a strong brand preference, almost a

quarter of the world's motorists say, we prefer Shell. Where ever we

go and start with electric charging, there is a trust, because they know

we put research and technology behind it, we are spending $1.1

billion on research and development in the company, this is their sense

of the company technically. We are well prepared, and we are trying to

participate in shaping this. In hydrogen, electric charging we have

in Norway and Russia and Spain, and we are starting in the UK. What is

the one thing I can buy at one of your forecourt that I cannot buy

now? It will be the fish and chips, hopefully avoid you! It is a global

programme, we have that everywhere in the world! I will hold you to

that! If you are wondering, Hungary. Hence

the name. In a moment, we'll take a look

through the business pages. But first, here's a quick reminder

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This is a story we asked if he was about, big sales are getting smaller

at department stores, Black Friday is traditionally the time when they

sell things cheaper, it is ready for Christmas and Thanksgiving, but

maybe not so much any more? Classically, we think sales on Black

Friday, but some of the core brands are resisting. In the department

stores, they say, I don't want to go on discount, I want to maintain my

price premium, and I will take the lower volume. A tug-of-war between

the department store and the brands in the store. For years, we have

been told it is relentless pressure and competition, so maybe there is a

bit of... Chris is challenging my attitude, he says, sales are of no

interest at all, nasty, cheap, unwanted stock and hideous queues.

Utter madness. Happy Wednesday morning! But it is all of those

images that we see. That's talk about Eurostar, operating between

Continental Europe and the UK, is axing 20 trains a week between

London and Brussels. Sadly, some of this is related to a fall in tourism

for that particular route. The number of daily trains will go down

from nine to seven. There will be more flights from London to

Brussels. That is interesting. Not super environmentally friendly. If

you read the comments, it is not lost on many people, talking about

the gravy train to Brussels. Maybe that is finally drying up. Not my

view, just the view of some of those comments underneath.

Thank you for your company, have a good day. Children for the Autumn

Statement. See you later. Goodbye.

The last few days have seen some extreme weather around the country.

Over four inches of rain in the south-west of England. Scenes of

flooding in the south-west. More recently further north as well, into

parts of northern