19/01/2016 BBC News at Ten

Tonight at Ten: A challenging year ahead for the global economy,

the latest warning, this time from the Bank of England.

The Governor rules out an imminent rise in interest rates in the UK.

A rather different message to the one he delivered just

The year has turned and that decision proves straightforward, now

is not yet the time to raise interest rates.

Recent turbulence in the global economy, with a focus on slower

growth in China, are the main factors behind the decision to keep

We'll have more on the Governor's message and we'll be taking a closer

look at what's happening in the Chinese economy.

Also tonight: A court rules that a baby girl in Cumbria was sexually

assaulted by her father shortly before her death.

A special report on Turkey's handling of the migration crisis.

23,000 people have been smuggled into Europe in the past three weeks.

It's a journey of about two-and-a-half hours across to

Greece and once they're there the journey into Europe begins.

A two-day strike by junior doctors in England scheduled for next week

has been suspended as talks on the new contract continue.

And, they have a black host, but no black actors among

the nominees for the second year running.

On BBC London: How to spot whether children are being

The new Government website for teachers and parents.

And the Tory man who wants to be Mayor.

Zac Goldsmith sets out his vision for London.

The latest warning of a bumpy year ahead for the global economy has

come from the Governor of the Bank of England.

Mark Carney - in his first major speech of 2016 -

has ruled out an imminent rise in interest rates in the UK,

a rather different message to the one he delivered just

The value of sterling sank to its lowest for seven years,

following the news that Mr Carney was concerned by weaker economic

growth and volatility in China, where growth is at its lowest

Our economics editor Kamal Ahmed reports.

In China the economic juggernaut is slowing as the country attempts

Around the world, the global oil price is collapsing,

a reflection of weakening growth and in Britain,

For the governor of the Bank of England there are warning signs

Now is not yet the time to raise interest rates.

This wasn't a surprise to market participants

They observed the renewed collapse in oil prices,

the volatility in China, the moderation in growth in wages

He said the next rate rise wouldn't be governed by a firm timetable,

That means we will do the right thing, at the right

It was here at Lincoln Cathedral that the governor said

that the question of interest rate rises would come into sharper relief

That was last summer and things have certainly become chillier

since then, both for the weather and the UK economy.

After today's speech, many are now predicting

that the first interest rate rise in the UK since 2007 may not arrive

For local residents it might be good news for mortgage holders,

I mean, obviously, I appreciate that you don't want mortgage rates to go

up too high because that's going to impact greatly on people.

The problem now is I'm getting nothing, virtually nothing,

There is nothing you can do without taking a risk and at my age,

Is Mr Carney flip-flopping on when interest rates may rise?

The trouble with trying to say what you're going to do

with interest rates is people rightly say,

well, give us a clue about where it's going?

But you can't give a clue because your actions are always

There could be more poor data tomorrow.

Figures are likely to show that wage growth is slowing,

another headwind for an economy beset by local and global problems.

As we heard, Mr Carney's predictions were made against a background

of bleak forecasts about the health of the global economy.

And one of the main factors is a slowdown in China.

The Chinese economy grew by just under 7% in 2015.

Although this rate seems impressive here in the West,

it's the weakest annual growth in China since 1990,

Some observers insist Chinese growth is actually much weaker

than the official data as our correspondent Stephen Evans

It's the shopping centre where shoppers barely came.

Modelled on the Pentagon in Washington, this massive retail

park in Shanghai was meant to be a money magnet

Inside, rows and rows of empty shops and a solitary,

Just outside Shanghai, this tailor makes a winter coat.

It's cold here but she fears the economic chill.

TRANSLATION: It's very difficult for him to find a new

Employers don't want him and he's no longer young enough

Our financial situation is definitely going to get worse.

This economy has ploughed ahead at 10% a year for nearly three

decades and no economy can sustain that growth.

Some question whether Chinese official figures are accurate

but they don't add the big picture - slowdown.

China produced less electricity in 2015 than the year before,

This economy's grown from the starvation and the wreckage

Now it's moving forward at a more normal pace.

But the question is can it make that transition smoothly?

Nobody's going to dismantle this amazing structure

but are the financial foundations secure?

Can it make the change without a crash?

And there are problems, wages have risen, cutting China's

competitive advantage, much construction was on borrowed money.

So without lowering the cost of capital, then this

It used to be said that when America sneezed,

The outlook for China is darker and that makes it tougher

China hasn't caught economic pneumonia yet but nor is it

Stephen Evans, BBC News, Shanghai.

A judge has ruled that a baby girl from Cumbria,

who died suddenly in 2012, had been sexually assaulted

by her father shortly before her death.

Poppi Worthington was found with serious injuries at her home

in Barrow-in-Furness but it's still not known

Paul Worthington was questioned by police on suspicion of sexual

assault but was not charged and he's denied any wrongdoing.

Poppi Worthington was a healthy 13-month-old toddler

For three years, secrecy surrounded her death but,

for the first time, a High Court judge has revealed moments before

Poppi died she'd suffered a violent sexual assault by her father.

This is Paul Worthington, he was alone with Poppi

He was questioned on suspicion of sexual assault, but never charged

and released after an investigation full of mistakes.

The court was told there was a series of police failures

to investigate Poppi Worthington's death.

The judge said the case was "unprecedented."

He called it "astonishing incompetence", missed opportunities

The court detailed a catalogue of errors by detectives

Her nappy, clothes and bedding were lost.

Paul Worthington's laptop was also lost.

Senior police officers didn't visit Poppi's home and her parents

were not interviewed for eight months.

I want the Home Secretary to step in now and give this case to another

force to try to salvage some hope that there could be a criminal

investigation after all of the failings.

Those failures mean we still don't know the cause of Poppi's death

and without new evidence her father won't face prosecution.

I do accept that the police and other agencies perhaps have

This is former detective Mike Forster, he led the inquiry

The BBC has seen this unpublished report by

the Independent Police Complaints Commission.

It describes the investigation as "unstructured and disorganisation",

I think what people need to try and understand as well

is that the IPCC look at policies and procedures and how it should be

Tonight, the Government has warned Cumbria County Council's Children's

Services to improve or face tough action.

Paul Worthington has denied abusing his daughter,

An independent review of the handling of child sexual

abuse allegations against the late Lord Janner has blamed poor police

investigations and mistakes by prosecutors for the failure

Greville Janner, a former Labour MP, died in December, before

an official review of the facts could be held.

A man who alleges he was sexually abused as a child by Lord Janner

says he's angry that three opportunities to prosecute

A 48-hour strike by junior doctors in England, planned for next week,

has been suspended by the British Medical Association.

Talks are continuing between the BMA and NHS employers on the terms

of the controversial new doctors' contract.

The two sides disagree over how best to make more health services

Our health correspondent Sophie Hutchinson is outside the BMA

headquarters in central London for us tonight.

Should people read into this they're closing to some agreement? Perhaps

edging towards a deal, you might say, that is the hope that there is

no sign of a significant breakthrough at this stage. The

talks between Government officials and doctors have been taking place

behind closed doors, so details are limited. But what doctors here today

at the British Medical Association have said is that they feel that

things are improving, that there is now real room for some progress.

They said that they were hopeful. They also said they felt the

Government was now listening to their concerns, which have been

around safety and also around pay. They say that's why they've called

off this strike next week, this two-day strike that was going to

take place, the Government has welcomed that and clearly it's

better news for patients. That strike has been called off but there

was a third strike on the list, is that going ahead? Yes, at the moment

that strike planned for 10th February is going ahead. That would

be a full walk-out by junior doctors. It will be the first time

in the NHS that junior doctors have not covered emergency care and

clearly that is a much greater challenge for the NHS than the

previous strikes and for patient care. Now that is the threat hanging

over these negotiations now, there are three weeks until then for the

Government and junior doctors to reach some kind of understanding and

the clock is ticking. Thank you very much for updating us.

The European Union has two months at best to get the migration crisis

under control, according to the President of the European

He says failure to control the influx of refugees and migrants

could mean the end of the Schengen Agreement,

the system which allows freedom of movement without passports

More than 23,000 people have been smuggled from Turkey into Europe

so far this year, that's three times more than in the whole of last

The EU has pledged over ?2 billion in aid for Turkey to help

But, as our special correspondent Fergal Keane reports

from the Turkish port of Izmir, that hasn't stopped the criminal

gangs determined to make more money from the crisis.

By the time they get here there's one choice,

refugees must pay the criminal gangs or get stuck in Turkey.

So far in 2016 the numbers trying to cross to Europe have tripled

And with rough winter seas, prices have more than halved

Families come into cafes like this to meet the smugglers' middlemen.

Just behind me a deal is being brokered now to try

Using a Syrian contact, we've been able to secretly record

a conversation with one of the middlemen.

The smuggling Mafia has offices in the centre of town,

where we secretly filmed this man who calls himself Abu Saif

We've discovered that even children have been recruited into the trade.

These Syrian refugee boys were selling life jackets.

The oldest, no more than 13, the youngest about eight.

Then the older one offered to organise a crossing

And the boy assured us they'll be no danger of the boat breaking down.

But boats do sink, the drowning of three-year-old Aylan Kurdi last

Overcrowded boats, sinking on rough seas as refugee try

Resisting the smugglers' orders can be perilous.

And we would discover just how dangerous and brazen they are.

Under the light of a thunder storm we waited at a beach.

More than 30 people downed here a week earlier.

Suddenly, the lights of a smugglers' coach carrying refugees.

As the sun rose, we found the people on the beach.

They were readying themselves, soon the smugglers would

The majority here are women and children from Iraq.

We left our country, but we still love our

"When I left my home, I cried and I cried.

My family and my children had left and I was alone there."

The people here are now waiting for the smugglers' boat to arrive.

It's a journey of about two-and-a-half hours

across to Greece and once they're there, the journey

The police came, Turkey says it's clamping down on smuggling,

they've been dozens of arrests, but not this time,

Then four vans appeared, the Turkish smugglers

We hid behind rocks and witnessed the loading of the refugees

as the boats are launched, a smuggler jumps off,

the people are on their own.

A man desperately tries to restart the engine.

After nervous minutes, the second boat is on its way again.

War and the failure of government have left the vulnerable

Fergal Keane, BBC News, western Turkey.

As we saw there in Fergal's report, many of the refugees trying to get

Today, the UN published a report saying that violence suffered

by civilians there remained at "staggering" levels.

It says at least 18,800 people were killed between the beginning

The UN accuses the so-called Islamic State group of systematic

and widespread violence, including holding some 3,500 people,

mainly women and children, as slaves.

Alleged abuses by troops, militiamen and Kurdish forces

Our correspondent, Jim Muir, reports now from the front-line

of Fallujah and Ramadi, as the Iraqi Army tries to confront

Just a week ago this was an empty field, now it's home to hundreds

fleeing the battles at Ramadi, joining many thousands uprooted

Razil arrived here with her family, or what's left of it.

As they were fleeing, a bomb went off.

Razil's two teenage sisters were killed.

She and her brother were hit by the shrapnel.

The family had already lost one of its sons to the self-styled

TRANSLATION: They took my son and held him for a year,

Then they came and said, "we've killed, and don't even ask

Life was terrible the children were living in fear.

The dogs were living better than that us.

The camp's not far from the front-line with the city of

Under Saddam Hussein, they virtually ruled Iraq.

Now, IS is in control there, cashing in on Sunni resentment

against the Shia dominated government.

The battle for Fallujah is clearly coming up very soon,

but as the government forces push harder against IS,

the militants, one thing is becoming very clear -

this is not a war that can be won by military means alone.

They have to win back the Sunni community whose alienation

from the Baghdad government gave IS, the militants, fertile soil

Most of the IS fighters in Fallujah and elsewhere are believed to be

But here, Sunni tribes have taken up arms against IS.

TRANSLATION: Everybody's been harmed by IS, houses and mosques destroyed.

They arrived saying, "we've come to help you,

to defend you", but now they have shown their true colours and people

are cursing IS because they've seen its reality.

This is what IS left behind in Ramadi.

The Army's almost won the fight here, but there's a long way to go

before IS is driven out of the huge Anbar province.

History has shown that if the government loses the battle

for Sunni hearts and minds, it could lose all this

A statement from the so-called Islamic State group has confirmed

the death of the British militant known as Jihadi John in a drone

Mohammed Emwazi was a British citizen of Arab origin who gained

notoriety worldwide for his filmed executions of Western hostages.

US forces said last year that they were "reasonably certain"

then that he'd been killed in a strike.

Labour has released the findings of its internal inquiry into why

It says it failed to convince voters it could be trusted on the economy,

During the day, another report was published on the mistakes made

by polling organisations which failed to predict

a Conservative majority and suggested a hung parliament

Our political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, reports now

How did you chose who lives behind this famous door?

We are saying the Conservatives are the largest party.

Pollsters and pundits thought the decision was achingly close,

As ballot boxes were closed, the extensive exit poll

was like an electric shock to the political establishment.

If this exit poll is right, Andrew, I will publicly eat my hat

All those predictions of a hung parliament were off,

mainly because of one big simple mistake.

They had too many Labour voters in them and too few

The pollsters were wrong, but were you listening?

Did you pay any attention to the polls?

Every now and again I read the results,

It was really only in the last week or so before the election that

I realised that they were all singing from the same book

which was - it's going to be too close to call.

Do you think people do pay attention to the opinion polls?

Definitely, I think most people do, you know because, you know,

it takes a bit more extra effort, I suppose, to dig deeper.

Did you pay attention to the opinion polls?

I mean, I'm 76 now, so I've been there, done it.

Ed Miliband can only get into Downing Street if he has

But the polls were the backdrop and for as long as it looked

like a dead heat, the Tories accused Ed Miliband of plotting to use

Did the polls change politicians behaviour in the campaign?

Yes, and they did influence the questions they were asked.

But did the polls shift millions of votes on their own?

The Tories win and Labour's loss were about more than numbers.

Almost as soon as it was unveiled, carving the party's policies

in the so-called EdStone seemed like a mistake.

But an official party report today said much more went wrong

Ed Miliband struggled to be seen as a strong leader.

Labour didn't present a compelling pitch for power and didn't persuade

The task we had was to try to convince people

that they could trust us, particularly with the economy,

and to deal with issues that the Conservatives had made

issues of divisions between people, like welfare and immigration.

And we weren't able to do that in the end.

Working out what went wrong is the easy part,

the report says Jeremy Corbyn will need 94 more seats next time

Hugely popular among his own supporters, but as all politicians

know, getting your own party on side is not nearly enough.

Laura Kuenssberg, BBC News, Westminster.

The Republican front-runner, Donald Trump, has said he has

received the endorsement of the former Governor of Alaska,

In a statement, the businessman described Sarah Palin,

a former Republican nominee for vice-president, as a friend

for whom he had great respect and said he was proud

Our Washington correspondent, Gary O'Donoghue, is at

the Trump Hotel in Washington for us tonight.

Gary, what impact might this have on the Republican race?

In less than an hour's time two of the most colourful and controversial

figures in recent political memory will stand side by side on a stage

in Iowa, less than two weeks before that state has its say on who should

be the nominee for Republican presidency. Now, that is a huge flip

to the Trump campaign. Why? Sarah Palin is a huge darling of social

conservatives and evangelicals they are a significant part of the

Republican electorate in Iowa. Now, Donald Trump's main rival for the

candidacy is Ted Cruz, the Senator from Texas, he has been running them

a close second he would have loved Sarah Palin's endorsement. More than

the endorsement, what Donald Trump has proved once again is that he can

draw the oxygen, pull the limelight, from his arrivals onto to himself at

a key moment in the campaign. Huw. Gary, thanks again for theup date.

Gary O'Donoghue at the Trump Hotel in Washington.

Tributes have been paid to Glenn Frey, a founding member

of one of America's most successful groups, The Eagles,

# Take it easy. # Take it easy...

He was the lead singer on several of the group's hits,

wrote some of the band's biggest hits among them,

The group sold more than 150 million albums worldwide.

The absence of black actors among the nominees for the Oscars

for the second year running is "unforgivable", according

to the British actor David Oyelowo, who was overlooked last year

for his performance as Martin Luther King in Selma.

There are calls to boycott this year's Oscars ceremony.

The director Spike Lee says he won't be attending.

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has said it's looking

again at the diversity of its membership as our

I'm Chris Rock and I'm hosting the Oscars.

He may be the host, but the Hollywood elite does not

Nominations for the Oscars are decided by some 6,000 members

of the Academy of Motion Picture, Arts and Sciences.

Overwhelmingly, white men over the age of 50.

And this year, all 20 performers up for an Oscar have one thing

For 20 opportunities to celebrate actors of colour,

actresses of colour, to be missed last year's one thing,

for that to happen again this year is unforgiveable.

Also missing is this film, Straight Outta Compton,

Critically acclaimed, but Oscar-nominated not

as Best Picture, but for its white screenwriters.

In Compton today, dismay about the Oscar nominations runs deep.

For many people here what is happening in Hollywood

is symbolic of a continuing fight for equality, half a century

on from the civil rights struggles of the 1960s.

I think when you have 40 actors, over two years, and not one

We're not - we're just saying being nominated,

Yeah, I think it's kind of reality, it happens, but it's not right

and it's time for somebody to speak up.

I think that they should look deeper into the actors and nominate black

So does Spike Lee, he's boycotting the ceremony,

calling the Oscars lily white.

The only black film-maker ever to win a Best Picture Oscar has told

the BBC the problem is bigger than the Academy.

I think racism has a lot to do with it.

You want to talk about the Academy and obviously the demographic

of the Academy, one can talk about that.

That, to me, that's beside the point.

It's about the source, getting things made.

The President of the academy says she's heartbroken

I hope that everybody understands that this organisation is completely

committed to turning this narrative around.

Too late for this year's Oscars, already drowned out by the question

Newsnight is coming up on BBC Two, here's Evan.

Now, there is one indicator, one thing that tells you everything

To find out what it is, join me now on BBC Two,

Here, on BBC One, it's time for the news where you are.