Tim Martin, Chairman and Founder, JD Wetherspoon HARDtalk

in New York, people go to the polls. Donald Trump is expected to win,

despite confusing 9/11 with a well known convenience store. Time now

for Hoddle. Welcome to HARDtalk. I am Stephen

Sackur. The battle is on. Economic arguments are the most potent

weapon. Brexit, they claim, will come at a crippling cost in terms of

jobs, investment and growth. Many business leaders seem to agree, but

by no means all. My guess is Tim Martin, the founder of the JD

Wetherspoon chain. Could Brexit make economic sense?

Tim Martin, welcome to HARDtalk. Thank you very much. The Prime

Minister David Cameron and his team seems to have decided the economy

will be the main battle ground for the battle for the argument over

Europe. They believe they have strong arguments on their side. You

are a businessman, you have to accept they are right, don't you?

Definitely not. They are completely wrong. Everyone knows or should know

that democracy equals prosperity and freedom. You can see that throughout

the world. West Germany, far more successful than east Germany. South

Korea far more successful than North Korea. A really good example to chew

on is why North America, same resources, it is more successful

than south America. The reason, I think, is because of the high level

of democracy. A constitution put together a couple of hundred of

years ago by the founding fathers. You did not get that in South

America. In Europe, the overriding issue is democracy is slowly being

taken away. I am going to stop you there... Just look at Greece. They

no longer have control over their interest rates or budget. Look at

Portugal, Spain. Italy has had no growth since the euro started. It is

an emerging catastrophe. You can cut that argument about what is

happening in Europe different ways. Let me step back a little bit. You

chose to answer by not addressing economic arguments, but by saying it

is about democracy. It is an economic argument. Let us look at

what the Prime Minister and his team are saying. They'd just issued a

report in the Treasury in London which looked at the impact of

leaving the European Union in terms of Britain's trade, growth

potential, jobs, over the next 15 years. And to quote the Prime

Minister, the conclusion was that leaving the European Union would

leave Britain significantly and long-term poorer. It is an exercise

in deception. The Chancellor has used his great office, which carries

a lot of kudos and power and prestige to produce a highly

misleading statement. One of the things he said which hit the

headlines in the press is that, and he back to top by saying he was

supported in terms by the Bank of England, is that mortgage rates for

individual householders would go up if Brexit occurred and that is

because the pound would come under pressure as a result of inflation

going up and when inflation goes up, interest rates and mortgages go up.

That is what he said. He is trying to influence the householders of

Britain. When this happened in 2009 at the interest rates went down.

Anyone who predicts interest rates over 15 years is in a mark-up is

back again. What Osborne is focused on and what you must focus on in

your vote leave campaign, Osborne is focused on the pact on trade,

regarding leaving the European single market. He is not singled on

-- he is not focusing on that. Yes he is. It goes through establishing

a new trading relationship. It could be the Norwegian model. They have

signed up and they have two pay in, even though they are not a member.

You are saying no one can tell what interest rates will be over 15

years, but they can tell by looking at Norway how the British economy is

going to be worse off? That is the best case. The other case is you

accept a bilateral trade deal, like the Canadians, which will lead to 6%

lost growth, or you have a trade deal like the Brazilians, the

Russians have with the Europeans, and that will be more damaging to

the UK economy. This is backed by figures. What have you got on your

side to rebut it? The Chancellor, and you try to close me down on an

important point the Chancellor has made and I will come back to that

and then answer your question, the Chancellor said very recently that

mortgage rates would go up for the British public is Brexit occurred

because the pounds would go down and inflation would go up. When that

happened in 2009, the last time, this is the Chancellor of the

Exchequer talking, the interest rates went down. That was a

deception and a deliberate lie to frighten people. As regards the

Treasury report, it is also an exercise in trying to frighten

people. It is taking no account of the fact that outside Europe there

will be benefits. It has taken all the costs and none of the benefits,

as a lot of the commoners have said. That's because of the fact that we

will have more freedom and more democracy, we will be able to forge

our own path. They have taken, for example, according to newspaper

reports I have read, I don't have my own large team of economists who can

dissect it. Macro no, you don't. You just accuse the Chancellor of

deliberate lying. Is it the way to conduct this campaign? Yes! Saying

mortgage rates would go up? It is a protection based on the weakness of

the pound. -- prediction. Then why when the pound was weak in 2009, why

did interest rates go down will stop people will find it staggering that

you as the chairman of a successful business are willing to contemplate

what would happen... The point you said, the point you started off

with, are we concerned about the uncertainty of Brexit. I think there

is far more uncertainty by staying in Europe because if exit occurs and

we read grain -- if Brexit occurs and we regain control of our own

laws, at the moment laws are framed by the European commission and our

MPs have only 50 votes out of about 750, we will have far more certainty

if we regain power for the British Parliament because we can control

events. You can go and see your own MP and have democracy. At the moment

we don't have it. You are interrupting me! Because this is an

interview! You have built a successful business, right? A

moderately to good business. Your business involves the best part of

1000 pubs. Yes. The stock market CU is a success and people have

invested money with you. You have done all of that would Britain

inside the European Union. I do think it was the European Union when

I started. It was the common market. It has become a union. Is it

troubling your business? It is. We are paying a lot on that money to

Europe. We are losing control of regulation in this country and it is

having a sporadic effect on the whole of Europe which has to be bad

for our business. The Centre for economic and research wrote a report

and reckon debris products or 8% lower. Sugar is 3.9% cheaper.

Serials are 3.3% cheaper. Alcoholic drink the estimated to be 3% cheaper

thanks to the single market. This is a relevant to your business. Who is

producing these the two sticks? Everyone knows that the modern

situation is meant to protect farmers. I am sure our agricultural

products are higher price in the shops and if we were outside. I have

met a lot of people who have said that, so it is difficult for me to

contradict the person you have named in that report. It is interesting.

An agricultural body that restricts imports. It is interesting that you

skies in the vote leave campaign have an enormous amount of

self-confidence. If you look at the range of people who are convinced

that Britain live in the European Union would be bad for the British

economy, it would include the majority of FTS -- FTSE CEOs. Again,

the clear majority say they are convinced it would be better

display. It is true, but you can deny. The IMF 's said... I am trying

to give you the list, the litany of people in economic and business to

say leaving will be a terrible idea. It is simply not true in my personal

opinion and anyway, we have been here before. It is exactly the

argument that was advanced in favour of the euro. The CBI was massively

in favour of the euro. The financial Times massively in favour of the

euro. All the good and the great amongst the political leaders. Tony

Blair, Geoffrey Howe, or the Liberal Democrats. It was a great and good

thing, and the euro, they ignore the fact that for a currency to work,

you have to have a government. Terrible problems with the euro now.

Terrible problem since it has been introduced and it defies economic

logic. It is not based on economic 's, it is based on a quasi religious

desire for a transfer of power to the supranational organisations.

If you were in China or the United States, and you were looking to

negotiate trade deals with Europe, do you think that Britain on its own

carries more clout or do you think carries more clout or do you think

that the biggest trading block in the world, the European Union

carries more clout, when it comes to leverage and getting what Europe

wants? I think that as an independent country we could strike

better deals than Europe can. Leverage, you think Britain has more

leverage than the European Union? I think that we've got very good

leverage as the fifth biggest economy in the world. We're a

country of 60 million. You're talking about negotiating with China

with its 1. 3 billion people. The EU hasn't got a trade deal with China.

Nor with America. This is what the Chinese say. We haven't got a trade

deal with China or America. That's because these are the things that

are going to be negotiated over the next few years. I'm asking you where

the real power lies. It's a good example - This is what the Chinese

say... We don't need a trade deal to trade with China or America. Let me

tell you what the Chinese say... 1. 2 billion of them... From China's

point of view, we don't think any single European country can play a

global role. But the EU is different. It's the biggest market,

biggest trading partner of China. The EU is seen here in Beijing as a

major power in the world. If the UK left, it would hurt the UK much more

than the EU. Well, it's very difficult to get disagree with a

bland assertion such as that. You said America and China? Are

Americans themselves going to cede their own democracy to a

supra-national body like Mexico, Canada, put together into a greater

organisation to negotiate things for them? The United States is a federal

republic. That's the nature of their governance. They believe in a

federation. That's what they created. A federation within

America. They don't believe in a federation with Mexico and Nicaragua

and Brazil and Canada. That's what, in effect, Britain is being asked to

do within the EU. I think the United States, when they look at it

closely, will say it's very important to have democracy within

your own country. On the question of specific visions for the future of

Britain after a Brexit vote, which you hope will happen, there is a lot

of discussion about whether Britain will do a deal, can do a deal with

the remaining members of the European Union to deliver both

completely free access to the single market and a new arrangement on

migration and the movement of people. So let's take them one by

one. Do you believe Britain must have access to the single market,

full access to the single market? I think it needs to have a trading

arrangement with its neighbours, so full access to the single market? I

think we can negotiate a very good deal. The EU itself, the biggest

trading partner with China, doesn't have a deal with China. The EU

doesn't have a deal with America. So you can still trade with countries

without a formal deal. I think we'll be able to reach a formal or

informal deal with the EU that's very good. Do you? The French

economics minister just said that Britain will be completely killed.

We are the biggest buyers of champagne in the world. We're one of

the biggest buyers of French cheeses. We're a huge buyer of

German cars. They sell us twice as much - You're talking about tangible

goods - what about financial services, what about Deutsche Bank

saying that - what about financial services? Is this an exercise in

interruption? I don't know. Maybe you don't like questions, I don't

know. I start to answer the question and you interrupt it. It's fine. If

you want to do that. I do want to hear not just about cheese and wine

and cars, tangible goods traded between us and Europe. That's fine.

I'm asking you about perhaps more difficult things, like financial

services, like the fact that the head of Deutsche Bank says London

can forget about being a financial centre for Europe if it's not in the

European Union. As you will remember during the euro, the main argument

in favour of joining the euro was that if we didn't join our financial

services and the City would be hammered by staying outside. We

didn't join the euro and we've done really very well. When you get these

scare stories, they're difficult to contradict, but there's no reason

why the City shouldn't continue to thrive and financial services

shouldn't ton thrive outside -- continue to thrive outside the EU.

The free movement of people and migration then. One of the most

contentious issues for campaigners for Brexit is the idea that we've

lost, Britain has lost control of its borders and it has to re-impose

the control and end the principle of free movement of people. Do you

believe that is important for the British economy to end the free

access for European workers into the British economy? My own view is that

people who have gained access, the countries which have gained access

already, that includes countries within the EU and countries like

Switzerland and Norway, outside the EU, who are also entitled to live

here, and it happened before the EU with Ireland, for example, they

should continue to be able to come and live here with a passport or

with - Free unfettered access? Yes. Because you're way out of step then

with most in the vote Leave campaign. I don't know if I am out

of step with most in the vote Leave campaign. That's my view what have

should happen. Is that because your own business uses a lot of migrant

labour? No. It's not because of that. It's because I think that up

to now, the numbers of people that have come and have been sensible

enough, some people feel - Really? Yes. You're way out of step with

your colleagues in the Brexit campaign who believe that the

hundreds of thousands who have come from Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, all

sorts of different countries have fundamentally damaged the UK and not

just the UK economy, but the UK culture. I don't believe that

myself. I think that what's happened up to now has been acceptable. If

our borders and if the EU expands our borders and if the EU expands

further, then it has to be up to the British Parliament as to whether

people should be allowed to come here. I think for the future, like

the United States, or Australia, we should do it on a points system, not

based on where you happen to be born, but based on the

qualifications that the people have who want to come here and the needs

of the country. We're close to the end. I want to bring in a different

point. You're from Northern Ireland originally. Yes. You're more aware

than most of the potential forces within the United Kingdom, I'm sure

you're aware that the Scots, for example, in the form of Nicola

Sturgeon, the leader of the SNP, have said if Britain, as a whole,

votes to leave the European Union, but the Scots people, when you look

at the result, have voted to stay, for her, that will be a clear signal

that it's time to re-open again the argument for Scottish independence

Well, there may be another Well, there may be another

referendum any way. I don't think Nicola has ever refuted the idea of

a second referendum. It may arise in a lot of circumstances. William

Hague says that voting to leave will inevitably threaten the unity of the

United Kingdom. Do you worry about that? I think myself that if the

Scots want to leave the United Kingdom, it's a decision for them.

It's very important that they don't stay in the United Kingdom under

duress, so if they do want their own government, then I think probably

it's a good thing for them and for the UK in they have it. I think the

principle of democracy is the overriding one. That's where you

started and that's where I guess we're going to end. On that point,

you feel so passionately about this, we discussed and we can argue

forever about whether the consensus within business and economics is for

leaving or not, but do you ever think that you're putting your

personal views before the interests of your employees or your

shareholders when it comes to this Brexit argument? No. I've said in my

magazine, this is what I think, but who cares what I think? It's up to

you. What do you think? That's the reality of the matter. I personally

think that democracy is needed for the future of humanity. I don't

think unless it's enshrined in individual countries and increased

in the future that the world will survive. Sounds rather dramatic, but

you can't take democracy away from people or it always ends up in

trouble. We'll end with that thought. Tim Martin, thank you very

much for being on HARDtalk.