Chris Grayling - Leader of the House of Commons HARDtalk


Chris Grayling - Leader of the House of Commons

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Welcome to The HARDtalk, I'm Stephen Sackur.

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Any hopes that Britain's decision on whether to stay in or leave

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the EU would be calm, dispassionate and respectful have

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In the run up to the referendum on 23 June, the two camps

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are kicking lumps out of each other, and the fight is at its bloodiest

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inside the governing Conservative Party.

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My guest today is Chris Grayling, the Leader

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of the House of Commons and a senior figure in the campaign to leave

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Will this political war ultimately weaken Britain and Europe?

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thank you. The British public has had weeks of this referendum

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campaign, and there are days more to go. Do you think the nature of the

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campaign is serving the British public well? I think there will

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always be some lively moments, but I think people like being given a real

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choice. This is a four-month campaign at which both sides have

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got ample opportunity to explain issues, get messages out. People

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will have to form their own judgement. There are strong views on

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both sides of the debate, ultimately it is a decision that will rest with

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the public. One of the most respected committees in the place,

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the House of Commons, described the debate as being full of lurid claims

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which are impoverishing the debate. I am not sure I necessarily by that

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argument. There have been some fairly robust arguments on both

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sides, such as the complaint of the money that is sent to the EU. That

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is a National office of statistics figures. People will probably be

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very interested in that, let me stop you. You claim that it cost Britain

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?350 million a week, membership of the European Union. That is frankly

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just plain wrong. It is not, the official figure is 9.9% of the

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national office of statistics... We only get about half of it back. So,

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you have just given the game way, you get it back. The figure that you

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present on the Leave campaign battle bus as how much it costs Britain

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every week to be in the EU is nonsense because you get more than

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half of the moneyback. We do get a rebate, which is continuous

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negotiation, and the second is... You are getting a rebate every year,

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so however you get an account for it, there is money going out

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amounting to about 18 billion of which the... Our overall

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contribution is over ?300 billion a week. What we get back is not under

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our control. We get about a quarter back through the rebate. That is

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under constant pressure from other EU members who want to get rid of

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it. What we have set throughout the campaign, that our gross on

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tradition. Our net contribution is about ?10 billion a year. As someone

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who has run government departments in top spending reviews, that would

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be a great addition to things like spending on our health service. I am

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taking a wild guess that this was a distortion would not persuade you to

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change your mind on the figures. I guessed that and clearly I am right.

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I just wonder whether you mind that, for example, some of the most

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respected figures in the land, such as the chair of the UK statistics

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authority, said that he is deeply disappointed that you continue to

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use that figure. Do you not care about that? What he said was that

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you need to play it in context, which I have done. But you have

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frequently used it without any context whatsoever. We have said

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throughout that that is our gross contribution. The money we do go

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back, we don't have control over. That is money that is decided for us

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as to how it is spent. Our rebate is under constant pressure from other

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member states. There is no guarantee that it will still be there in five

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years at White Oda new respect Sir John Major, perhaps a doyen of the

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Conservative party. He described the use of statistics and economic

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arguments as strategic political lying as an art form, it is great

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political fraud. I completely disagree. Using official statistics

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from the office of National statistics is hardly a national

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fraud. Other claims that have been made in the last few days by your

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side, Boris Johnson said that Britain is going to be on the hook

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for billions more from the EU because he says we will ultimately

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be forced to be a part of future bailouts. We will have to fork out

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billions. He also says there is a black hole in the European budget

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which we will have to meet. It is just plain wrong, isn't it? You and

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I know that the David Cameron deal with Europe is that those of us not

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in the eurozone will not be required to take in future eurozone bailouts.

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It is only a couple of years since a political agreement was reached

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between our government and other member states that said we would

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have to contribute to the last bailout. But that was immediately

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torn up subsequently. There is not yet a legal basis for our exclusion

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from any future bailouts. We have had to pay out billions... The

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entire debate is nonsensical. If you say that any agreements that have

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been signed me nothing... About three years ago, there was a

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political agreement about a gay lot of which written was not part, but

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then suddenly we turned out to be part of it. That is one of the

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challenges. On this question of truth telling and deceit or not, a

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final poster that really sticks in my mind is that Turkey is joining

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the EU. Turkey is a candidate member. It is. -- Turkey is a

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candidate member. We have a document setting out the current process of

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integrating Turkey into a number of EU processes as part of what it

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described as the process of bringing Turkey towards membership. That is a

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very long sentence and has nothing to do with the statement, Turkey is

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joining the EU. It is a candidate member and European commissioners

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are working towards Turkey joining. I don't know what the date is yet,

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but it is absolutely clear that it is going to occur. A plan was agreed

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only two months ago that to stop migrants crossing the AT, Turkey

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was going to become a member of the EU. According to my statement, you

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have no idea of whether Turkey will ever be a member of the EU. I am

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simply taking at face value what the European Commission said. They may

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be telling us a non- truce, but as far as I can see, Turkey is a

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candidate member and the EU is taking steps to move them towards a

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membership. Tell me if this is unfair, but you focus on Turkey

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because that is part of the main plank of your message delivery right

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now, which is about immigration? You seem to believe that you have a

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winning platform as long as you keep the debate in Britain on the

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question of immigration. You have suggested that Turkey is going to be

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an EU member in the 18 million Turks will have the freedom and write to

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come and live and work in the UK. Of course, that notion is so full of

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holes I don't know where to begin. But your cat has been peddling it

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for the last few months gradually we have a group of countries that are

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lined up to become members of the EU, they include study, Turkey,

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Macedonia and Turkey. In the case of Turkey, the commission explicitly

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agreed to accelerate the process of moving them towards the EU. Even if

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there is a restriction put in place to limit free movement of workers

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for a period, as was the case in the past, if you are self-employed, you

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can move straightaway. Very years that were in Romania and bog area

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joined, anyone working in the UK long before the official

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restrictions were lifted, south of the people could live in the EU from

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wherever they wanted from day one. How many Turks in this hypothetical

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land of yours we Turkey is a member of the EU, which of course it isn't,

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how many Turkish people do you think would come to the UK? I don't know,

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but what I do know from experience, in 2005 we admitted eight Eastern

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European countries. Five years later, we admitted Romania and Gary

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West European free movement. We saw very large numbers of people, in

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seven figures, come to the UK. That number is rising. There is no reason

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to believe that as more countries join, that that process won't

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continue. Net immigration to the UK was a third of a million, 333,000.

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Roughly half came from inside the EU and the rest came from outside. Your

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colleague Michael Gove has committed that if the Leaf campaign wins,

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within just a few years, that number will be down to tens of thousands.

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How are you going to do that? We have just passed and immigration

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act, they have put restrictions of movement from outside the EU. Within

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the EU, we have said there are a number of changes that we think need

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to happen. We are campaigning, we are not a government, but we have

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talked about a couple of things. The first is that people should only

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come to the UK to work if they have got a job. The second is that we

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should introduce a system similar to the Australian points -based system

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that allows us to recruit skills when we need them and not...

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Australia has a much higher proportion of migrants in their

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population than we do with their points -based system. How are you

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going to deliver this reduction when the CBI have said they want to see

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the movement of workers continue and they have said that the EU have

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consistently helped the UK to fill their skills shortage closer work it

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is about having control. At the moment, we can't control the flow of

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migration within Europe. When SEBI is telling you that immigration must

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continue because of the skills shortage, whether you talk about

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control will not, people will still have to come in. There are promises

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of reducing the numbers to tens of thousands, that does not stand up. I

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think it does. You want to strangle British business? I want people to

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have a choice. If we continue our levels at the moment, in overall

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terms, a city the size of Newcastle or Oxford every year, that will

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change our country. We will see more congested roads, more congested

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schools. We will see pressures on our health service. We will see

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pressures on the housing market. We will see significant additional

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development of green spaces around our country. If that is to happen,

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it is my view that the people of this country should have their

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choice. At the moment, there is no choice. Looking at other countries,

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some of those who have said we should stay with the EU, such as the

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US. The US, if they were going to have a similar issue, they would

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have to be having an SD card and people emigrate to America. Why

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should we have no control about the numbers of people who want to live

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and work it? I don't want to be a close the nation and its want to be

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able to manage that process. What about the tone of your

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argument? Sir John Major said it is overall squalid. I don't agree. You

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drive down the motorway and see that ridiculous poster you put up? That

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wasn't put up by us. It is fraudulent. It has nothing to do

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with us. It was Vote Leave. It was your campaign. It is perfectly

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possible for someone to mock up a poster. It isn't just posters. It is

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the tone. It is important to say, it isn't from us. This is important. We

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have talked about immigration as pressure on health, housing,

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schools, and the younger generation. Many are voting to remain, the

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younger people... Many younger people want to remain. If they want

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to get on the housing ladder, in what world will that become easier

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if we continue to have a city the size of Newcastle in immigrants

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coming to England every year. Do you think young people really related to

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Boris Johnson when he talked about efforts through history to recreate

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the empire of the Romans? He said Napoleon, Hitler, various other

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people tried it out, it ends tragically, and the EU is an attempt

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to do this by different method. Hitler? That association works? He

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was making a point. He is a politician like you. He is

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associating the EU with Hitler. He is also an accomplished historian

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and was making a historian's point. But he is speaking as a practical

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politician. He thinks linking the EU and Hitler is good politics he is an

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accomplished historian. He isn't, actually, professional, as a

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historian, he is a politician. He has written many books. You can

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choose to answer or not. Is it sensible to reach out to young

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people in this country today, many that travel around Europe, to link

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the EU and Hitler? What or is was doing was making a historical

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argument in poor taste. -- Boris. It is an interesting point, the polls

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suggest there is a clear division. The older generation, it seems, by

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and large, according to the polls, are with you, and the younger

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generation wants to remain in Europe. Why do you think that is? I

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don't know why people choose to vote the way they do... Why is your

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message not reaching out to young people? Interestingly, we have

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outing to see movement in the polls. I think that message is getting the

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younger generation. -- are starting to. When I talk to students and

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schools during the course of this campaign the message I give is think

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about the implications of the roles we have today for your future in the

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United Kingdom, especially about housing and the nature of the

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country in which they live. It will change, inevitably, and my point is

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not about that change being right or wrong, but about them having a safe.

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If we look forward, under current rules in the UK, we will see our

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country changed. I think the people who live here, old and you, should

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have a say. I would like to finish on the way this debate is being seen

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from outside. One of the key elements of the debate for your side

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is the conviction you seem to have that whatever the European states

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Sadie right now, other members, about things being different if

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written vote for Brexit... -- say. There will be a tough negotiation

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with the UK if you leave, you seem to say it is absurd to suggest the

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EU would put up trade barriers in a fit. You don't close a shop to your

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best customer, says Michael Gove. Do you not actually listen to what the

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rest of Europe is seen? Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande? --

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saying. You have to look at it the other way around. People are talking

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about advantageous terms. But it is also about the access of the rest of

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the EU to the UK market. If we leave the European Union we will represent

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17% of EU exports. We are crucial markets to French farmers and German

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automatic car makers. In what world do we think that their governments

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are going to jeopardise the 5 million jobs that depend upon UK

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consumers? Let me try and address that. The world in which that would

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be the case is a world in which the EU has greater leverage than the UK.

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To quote an independent economist, the truth is the EU needs us a great

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deal less than we need them. The worst case scenario is that its

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economy would be 0.2% smaller after Brexit. Not the case with us. The

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leverage is with them. I don't buy that. This is an independent

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economist. This is the French election year. The most vociferous

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lobby group in France are the farmers. If we don't carry on

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trading with the EU, the price of French agricultural projects in the

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UK will rise up to 40%. -- products. They will go bust, the French

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farmers. What sane politician in their election you possibly say to

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the farmers who will take to the streets in the drop of a hat, we

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will cripple your business in the most important market. It is a heck

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of a gamble you are taking, that senior politicians across Europe are

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crying wolf. Just to quote the Economy Minister from France,

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Britain will be completely killed in the global trade negotiations if it

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votes for Brexit. You think this language is a smokescreen? I

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listened very careful to Emmanuel's interview. He asked about power

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states developments in the UK. He said it is important it goes ahead.

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The Northern Powerhouse, I mean. There is a lot of physical rhetoric

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in this... People trust politicians internationally any more? -- to

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people. President Obama said it is quite clear that it is in the UK and

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the EU and the US's addressed for Britain to stay in the EU. --

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interest. Even China says though. Everyone looking in says, Britain,

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think carefully. You don't trust any of them? President Obama said it was

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in the US's interest... No, he said both. Look, the key point is we are

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looking out for the future. The debate is important is because over

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the next ten years, according to Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande,

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there is going to be a move. The EU in ten years time will look like big

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block called the United States of the eurozone or whatever and tacked

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onto it will be two countries, the UK and Denmark. The only two

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countries not bound by treaty to be part of that. How much they will we

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have in what goes on? How much will we be able to look after our

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national interest? All those countries saying we should stay,

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they aren't asking themselves the question what we in the same

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position putting ourselves into that situation, where we are unable to

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look after our national interest... We would be voted out every time.

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Referring to the question on whether you trust the words of people like

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President Obama internationally... I was in Washington. I talked to

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American politicians. The views they are much more nuanced than just

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President Obama. He happens to be the president. Let's talk about

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trust in one different way. You can't, it seems, trust your own boss

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any more, David Cameron. You don't trust him. I do trust in. He is and

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will continue to be a very good Prime Minister. -- him. But your

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colleagues, Michael Gove and Boris Johnson, they wrote saying he

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deceived the British public concerning Brexit. Do you believe he

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is to see for? How can you go on working for him if you believe that?

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-- deceitful. But he is a good Prime Minister. But he believe he is

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telling lies. I have every confidence in David Cameron as Prime

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Minister. Even if you think right now he is deceiving the British

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people? This will always be a lively debate. There are strong sentiments

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on both sides of the argument. But I make it be that it is in Britain's

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interest that regardless of the outcome, David Cameron is the best

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man to lead this country for the next New Year's. Chris Grayling,

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thank you very much for being on HARDtalk. -- few years. Thank you.

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It was a pleasure. THEME SONG PLAYS. Yesterday we saw some sunshine

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across many parts of the UK.

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