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So those are the latest BBC News headlines. Now it is time for | :00:00. | :00:11. | |
President Trump or President Clinton? | :00:12. | :00:15. | |
It's still a month until the Republican and Democrat parties | :00:16. | :00:18. | |
formally nominate their candidates, but that is all but certain to be | :00:19. | :00:21. | |
the choice for Americans in November. | :00:22. | :00:22. | |
My guest on HARDtalk is Frank Luntz, one of the best known pollsters | :00:23. | :00:27. | |
A Republican, he has spent his career listening to how | :00:28. | :00:32. | |
Americans think and feel about politics and politicians. | :00:33. | :00:34. | |
He says voters are angrier than ever before and the fracturing of both | :00:35. | :00:39. | |
the right and left in American politics means "any | :00:40. | :00:45. | |
There is a 'dump Trump' campaign that claims to be gaining followers | :00:46. | :01:23. | |
Do you think it is still possible that Donald Trump might not be | :01:24. | :01:30. | |
I don't think it's possible, and there are three reasons. | :01:31. | :01:34. | |
He won the most votes and he won the most by far. | :01:35. | :01:37. | |
And this is not a guy who takes criticism lightly. | :01:38. | :01:44. | |
For better or worse, he does not back down. | :01:45. | :01:47. | |
He is determined and he has won the votes and he has won the states | :01:48. | :01:52. | |
While there will be fussing, because that is the way American | :01:53. | :01:56. | |
politics is, he is the nominee, Hillary Clinton is the nominee, | :01:57. | :01:59. | |
and we will have the ugliest, meanest, most vicious campaign | :02:00. | :02:03. | |
in the modern history of American politics. | :02:04. | :02:09. | |
But even before that, so we get to the convention, | :02:10. | :02:11. | |
there are those who say having Trump as the Republican candidate | :02:12. | :02:17. | |
will mean it is "The end of our party". | :02:18. | :02:20. | |
Republicans talking of a moral obligation to stop him. | :02:21. | :02:22. | |
Even the house speaker saying, "The last thing I would do is tell | :02:23. | :02:26. | |
anybody to do something contrary to their conscience," | :02:27. | :02:28. | |
in other words, you may feel free to vote as you like rather | :02:29. | :02:32. | |
We have never had an election like this. | :02:33. | :02:36. | |
We have never had so many Democrats abandon someone who was so clearly | :02:37. | :02:40. | |
the front-runner as what happened with Hillary Clinton. | :02:41. | :02:44. | |
We have never had Republicans be so acrimonious towards each other. | :02:45. | :02:47. | |
It is happening in both parties, but it stretches out a bit | :02:48. | :02:50. | |
It is no different in Britain, France, Italy, Austria. | :02:51. | :02:59. | |
We are electing people we never dreamed would lead our countries | :03:00. | :03:02. | |
We are saying things in politics we never expected to say, | :03:03. | :03:09. | |
and the problem is, frankly, we have lost our civility. | :03:10. | :03:12. | |
We have lost our respect, the decency politics | :03:13. | :03:14. | |
Yes, it has always been a rough and tumble world, | :03:15. | :03:19. | |
but at least at the end of the day you could compromise | :03:20. | :03:22. | |
Hillary Clinton has the numbers but still doesn't have | :03:23. | :03:31. | |
Bernie Sanders rowing in behind her yet. | :03:32. | :03:35. | |
Does she need to do something to bring him onside and make | :03:36. | :03:38. | |
The key for him is not about personality, | :03:39. | :03:42. | |
As someone who does not agree with what he says, | :03:43. | :03:47. | |
I did enjoy listening to him say it, because it was policy-oriented | :03:48. | :03:51. | |
rather than this viciousness you have seen on the Republican side. | :03:52. | :03:54. | |
The Democratic party is not the same party that existed | :03:55. | :03:59. | |
It is much more liberal and progressive. | :04:00. | :04:04. | |
Much more likely to support higher taxes, more spending, | :04:05. | :04:07. | |
and for her, I think she can't move to the centre because the grassroots | :04:08. | :04:10. | |
The problem is will any of those people vote for Donald Trump? | :04:11. | :04:21. | |
Something most political observers don't realise. | :04:22. | :04:27. | |
This is not just about Republican or Democrat, | :04:28. | :04:29. | |
This is also about change versus status quo, and how much | :04:30. | :04:35. | |
And once again, in all of these European countries, | :04:36. | :04:39. | |
and being led by America, there is a segment that rejects | :04:40. | :04:42. | |
politics as usual and rejects the same traditional politicians, | :04:43. | :04:47. | |
and they want to vote for the most extreme candidate, | :04:48. | :04:49. | |
I think 15% of the Sanders people will vote for Donald Trump. | :04:50. | :05:00. | |
People who move from Bernie Sanders... | :05:01. | :05:04. | |
Because he is the most radical candidate. | :05:05. | :05:07. | |
However, you will see some Republicans who have never voted | :05:08. | :05:17. | |
Democrat before voting for Hillary Clinton this | :05:18. | :05:18. | |
You talk about any outcome is possible, and there | :05:19. | :05:27. | |
is an argument it is in your interests. | :05:28. | :05:29. | |
You've seen The Godfather III - "Just when I think I'm out, | :05:30. | :05:35. | |
OK, you may not be being paid by a candidate, | :05:36. | :05:42. | |
but it is your business, the predictability. | :05:43. | :05:44. | |
You are asked to go on television programmes to chart a way | :05:45. | :05:47. | |
What I want to ask is if we have Clinton versus Trump, she has a | :05:48. | :05:56. | |
We saw Doald Trump down by 12-15 points six weeks ago. | :05:57. | :06:05. | |
Then when he clearly got the nomination, he went to dead even | :06:06. | :06:08. | |
You have 40% definitely voting for him, | :06:09. | :06:17. | |
For all of you out there, in whatever language you speak, | :06:18. | :06:33. | |
only in those states who can go either direction. | :06:34. | :06:39. | |
In reality, they are fighting over about 4% of the vote. | :06:40. | :06:43. | |
We will come back to what they need to do on that battleground. | :06:44. | :06:48. | |
But one of the things I know you have polled | :06:49. | :06:50. | |
There are people who love Trump or Clinton, but there are also | :06:51. | :06:55. | |
And they are the people who actually say I will not vote | :06:56. | :07:03. | |
And these are the none-of-the-above voters. | :07:04. | :07:11. | |
Demographically, they are much younger and 2-1 female. | :07:12. | :07:17. | |
Attitudinally, they preferred Mitt Romney over Barack Obama | :07:18. | :07:19. | |
and give the Republicans better numbers. | :07:20. | :07:23. | |
How they look, you think they are Democrats. | :07:24. | :07:25. | |
How they speak, you think they're Republicans. | :07:26. | :07:26. | |
I want to ask you about those two candidates. | :07:27. | :07:31. | |
You talk about the favourable versus unfavourable. | :07:32. | :07:37. | |
Donald Trump's negative ratings are the highest of any candidate... | :07:38. | :07:40. | |
Malaria has a higher favourability rating in some places than Donald | :07:41. | :07:48. | |
But Hillary Clinton has that same, just a hair less, dislike. | :07:49. | :07:54. | |
In the end, this is the saddest thing of all, the American people | :07:55. | :07:58. | |
will vote for the candidate who they distrust the least. | :07:59. | :08:07. | |
This is not just an election of the least evil of the two. | :08:08. | :08:14. | |
The public has decided they don't trust anyone. | :08:15. | :08:16. | |
So when you say this is actually about who they distrust the most, | :08:17. | :08:21. | |
I have to tell you, first and foremost, | :08:22. | :08:26. | |
However people take it at home, I'm American. | :08:27. | :08:35. | |
I'm watching my country getting torn apart. | :08:36. | :08:38. | |
I've seen violence take place in other countries | :08:39. | :08:42. | |
I'm scared to death it will happen in America. | :08:43. | :08:46. | |
People are going there not to be heard, not just to disrupt, | :08:47. | :08:54. | |
Explain something to those of us outside the States who can see | :08:55. | :09:03. | |
Donald Trump almost deliberately setting out to offend. | :09:04. | :09:05. | |
But we don't see that from Hillary Clinton. | :09:06. | :09:17. | |
They don't go to Democratic rallies and throw chairs and disrupt. | :09:18. | :09:21. | |
They don't go yelling and screaming and disrupting. | :09:22. | :09:27. | |
All of the disruptions are on the left! | :09:28. | :09:29. | |
But he is saying things that are offensive. | :09:30. | :09:35. | |
I will acknowledge something I haven't before. | :09:36. | :09:39. | |
I initially felt Donald Trump was responsible for the protests. | :09:40. | :09:44. | |
I initially felt what he was saying was causing the problem until I went | :09:45. | :09:47. | |
The people outside were pushing people around, throwing stuff, | :09:48. | :09:50. | |
It wasn't the Trump people or the Sanders people. | :09:51. | :09:58. | |
We have an organisation in America called MoveOn.org. | :09:59. | :10:03. | |
These are professional protesters who want to disrupt | :10:04. | :10:07. | |
They are the ones who are responsible. | :10:08. | :10:11. | |
He has said things that are impossible to defend, yes. | :10:12. | :10:21. | |
If you say what he has said about Muslims, | :10:22. | :10:35. | |
A lot of people outside America can't understand why | :10:36. | :10:42. | |
Number one, she reads everything from the teleprompter. | :10:43. | :10:50. | |
There is nothing new or original about her. | :10:51. | :10:54. | |
Do you say what you mean and mean what you say and do | :10:55. | :11:00. | |
Has she told the truth about the Clinton Initiative, | :11:01. | :11:03. | |
or Benghazi, or about campaign financing and the money | :11:04. | :11:06. | |
The public looks at her and says, "I don't trust you". | :11:07. | :11:15. | |
And number three, they feel like she doesn't understand | :11:16. | :11:17. | |
the day-to-day concerns that they have, and they believe | :11:18. | :11:20. | |
Trump, even though he is a billionaire, does. | :11:21. | :11:22. | |
All of those things you could say of many other politicians. | :11:23. | :11:24. | |
Some would say of any other politicians, yet | :11:25. | :11:27. | |
There seems to be something where she is more hated. | :11:28. | :11:49. | |
She may have higher positive records, but she is more hated. | :11:50. | :11:53. | |
That is a strange thing for those outside the States to understand. | :11:54. | :11:56. | |
They want to look you straight in the eye and know you mean | :11:57. | :11:59. | |
This is someone they believe says what the polls tell her to say. | :12:00. | :12:04. | |
We have a show called Saturday Night Live and they have | :12:05. | :12:09. | |
sketches of her becoming Bernie Sanders because she is taking | :12:10. | :12:13. | |
After 25 years in American politics, you would think you would | :12:14. | :12:17. | |
Let's turn to the battleground itself. | :12:18. | :12:25. | |
It's eight or nine states they are scrapping over. | :12:26. | :12:28. | |
Let's think about who they are voting for. | :12:29. | :12:31. | |
It's not going to be Muslims, given what Donald Trump says | :12:32. | :12:36. | |
about Muslims and wanting to stop them coming into the country - | :12:37. | :12:39. | |
African-American vote, typically goes Democrat, | :12:40. | :12:43. | |
I will give you the three segments she would do better | :12:44. | :12:49. | |
Even though there is so much in Bernie Sanders' camp, | :12:50. | :12:54. | |
they don't like Donald Trump's language or his tone. | :12:55. | :12:56. | |
You are never supposed to draw an age line, | :12:57. | :13:03. | |
women under the age of 40, Trump is doing worse than any | :13:04. | :13:09. | |
And then Latinos, who are making up a bigger percentage in central | :13:10. | :13:14. | |
states like Nevada, Colorado and Florida. | :13:15. | :13:19. | |
His insistence on supporting a wall, his communication | :13:20. | :13:23. | |
That is where she is doing better than a typical Democrat would do. | :13:24. | :13:33. | |
And where Donald Trump is doing better is class voters - | :13:34. | :13:47. | |
And where Donald Trump is doing better is WORKING class voters - | :13:48. | :13:49. | |
people below the average income who do not have a college education, | :13:50. | :13:52. | |
Republicans have always done badly among them. | :13:53. | :13:55. | |
It's similar to here, between Labour and Conservative. | :13:56. | :13:57. | |
Donald Trump is getting those people and no Republican ever has. | :13:58. | :14:00. | |
This is the blue wall, which is a term coined | :14:01. | :14:02. | |
by the journalist Ronald Brownstein, which refers to 18 states which have | :14:03. | :14:05. | |
And Trump, in a state like Pennsylvania, which is very | :14:06. | :14:12. | |
below the average in terms of economic recovery, | :14:13. | :14:14. | |
There are millions of Americans who have never voted Republican | :14:15. | :14:19. | |
before but will vote for him because he is their voice - | :14:20. | :14:21. | |
his anger is their anger, and they feel betrayal | :14:22. | :14:23. | |
that Washington and Wall Street not only let them down but took | :14:24. | :14:28. | |
They benefited, and these voters were hurt, and Donald Trump | :14:29. | :14:32. | |
He has those three weaknesses and one strength. | :14:33. | :14:41. | |
On betrayal and what he says, what they are responding to, | :14:42. | :14:45. | |
you sit with focus groups to see how they respond. | :14:46. | :14:49. | |
You have no commercials here and that's a blessing. | :14:50. | :15:02. | |
I can't get the commercial break in my focus groups. | :15:03. | :15:04. | |
In my ear they're telling me, "End the segment - | :15:05. | :15:06. | |
I can't stop them yelling at each other. | :15:07. | :15:10. | |
Once they start talking about politics they won't stop. | :15:11. | :15:12. | |
The rudeness and incivility is so horrible. | :15:13. | :15:14. | |
In a way that it hasn't been before, in your focus groups? | :15:15. | :15:17. | |
I've been doing this for 25-30 years, forever. | :15:18. | :15:21. | |
So when Donald Trump says, well, perhaps whether it's about Mexico | :15:22. | :15:24. | |
sends its people, they're not the best, they're sending people | :15:25. | :15:27. | |
with problems, bringing drugs, bringing crime, they're rapists. | :15:28. | :15:29. | |
If Hillary Clinton were a man I don't think | :15:30. | :15:31. | |
Whether it's Republicans or Democrats, how do people respond? | :15:32. | :15:43. | |
There's a segment of people that want politicians to look them | :15:44. | :15:45. | |
straight in the eye and tell them exactly how they think and feel, | :15:46. | :15:49. | |
even if they disagree with it, and Donald Trump is appealing | :15:50. | :15:51. | |
There is a segment, about 10-15%, among the Republican Party | :15:52. | :15:56. | |
that doesn't like it because they want to be | :15:57. | :16:00. | |
representative of all people and they don't | :16:01. | :16:01. | |
On the Democratic side, they are desperate for | :16:02. | :16:05. | |
Hillary Clinton to step up onto the podium and just say | :16:06. | :16:08. | |
what she thinks and acknowledge that she hasn't been perfect. | :16:09. | :16:11. | |
So we do testing, and again I'm going to do this on the show, | :16:12. | :16:15. | |
I've never talked about this, I think one of the big segments | :16:16. | :16:18. | |
will be an interview that she did on network television where she says | :16:19. | :16:22. | |
You don't make an effort, you just do or don't. | :16:23. | :16:35. | |
So she doesn't understand the damaging nature of that. | :16:36. | :16:38. | |
It isn't my job to trust either, my job is to tell | :16:39. | :16:44. | |
Because Donald Trump has said many things. | :16:45. | :16:48. | |
Does he stay by all the things that he has campaigned on? | :16:49. | :16:51. | |
No, he changes his positions on issues like minimum wage, | :16:52. | :16:56. | |
There are too many occasions where he has changed his positions | :16:57. | :17:03. | |
and too many occasions where she hasn't told us | :17:04. | :17:06. | |
My advice, and I will do both because we want to keep this | :17:07. | :17:19. | |
balance, my determination is to instil a sense of civility | :17:20. | :17:21. | |
where there is none and keep it balanced where there is none. | :17:22. | :17:24. | |
For him, he has to tell people exactly what he will do on day one. | :17:25. | :17:29. | |
What is the first thing you will do as president? | :17:30. | :17:35. | |
What is the law, what is the regulation, what exactly | :17:36. | :17:38. | |
He has to do it because he has no political background, | :17:39. | :17:43. | |
he comes as a businessman - so we have the right to know. | :17:44. | :17:47. | |
Number two is we should know who he will appoint. | :17:48. | :17:49. | |
Because his voters tell me that they assume he will put | :17:50. | :17:52. | |
brilliant people around him, that's how | :17:53. | :17:53. | |
Not political people, people who know how to do their jobs. | :17:54. | :17:57. | |
Those are the two things he needs to do. | :17:58. | :18:01. | |
In Hillary Clinton's case, because she has such a bad | :18:02. | :18:03. | |
she needs to demonstrate whether she can work with Congress | :18:04. | :18:07. | |
I'm not convinced that either of them can work with anybody. | :18:08. | :18:16. | |
I can't believe my country is in this situation. | :18:17. | :18:22. | |
You are at the centre of it and you have been accused of bias, | :18:23. | :18:26. | |
but bias towards Marco Rubio, who you have worked for in the past | :18:27. | :18:29. | |
and who has paid you hundreds of thousands of dollars. | :18:30. | :18:32. | |
I work for seven of these candidates. | :18:33. | :18:33. | |
Trump accused you very early on in the campaign, | :18:34. | :18:40. | |
after the first debate, you said that he had... | :18:41. | :18:42. | |
Referred to him guaranteeing the destruction of his campaign. | :18:43. | :18:48. | |
You called him wrong and Trump called you on it and said | :18:49. | :18:51. | |
I am a clown, you can see how I'm dressed, | :18:52. | :19:00. | |
and I am a slob, the tie isn't perfect, but I'm not an idiot. | :19:01. | :19:03. | |
I did not get acknowledged by Oxford University at the age | :19:04. | :19:06. | |
By September I realised and I went to so many political people to say, | :19:07. | :19:14. | |
We all have the right to make a mistake, the question | :19:15. | :19:23. | |
When he answered that question about women and Megyn Kelly | :19:24. | :19:28. | |
challenged him on it he turned it into a question | :19:29. | :19:30. | |
of political correctness, that's brilliant. | :19:31. | :19:34. | |
I would never talk about who I vote for, | :19:35. | :19:41. | |
ever, because that automatically colours everything I do. | :19:42. | :19:43. | |
It's not an appropriate question for someone who does what we do. | :19:44. | :19:48. | |
My own opinions, with the exception of civility, don't actually matter. | :19:49. | :19:53. | |
If Marco Rubio was the nominee would you have worked for him? | :19:54. | :19:56. | |
No, because I love bringing people together around tables like this. | :19:57. | :20:00. | |
I love conversations where I get to give and take. | :20:01. | :20:04. | |
You said you were finding it more difficult. | :20:05. | :20:07. | |
Are you still loving it, despite the... | :20:08. | :20:10. | |
You have no idea how depressed, not that anyone cares, | :20:11. | :20:14. | |
but please understand the system isn't broken, | :20:15. | :20:17. | |
And I don't necessarily believe that it can recover itself. | :20:18. | :20:25. | |
I studied history at university and you can't show me an example | :20:26. | :20:31. | |
of a country that gets into the situation that the US | :20:32. | :20:35. | |
is in and then finds a way to come out of it. | :20:36. | :20:38. | |
When you make the commitments that it has made in budgets, | :20:39. | :20:41. | |
in spending, when you have a government | :20:42. | :20:43. | |
that is so little trusted and an economic system... | :20:44. | :20:47. | |
We did a survey for Snapchat among 18 and 29-year-olds. | :20:48. | :20:50. | |
A majority now think socialism is the best | :20:51. | :20:52. | |
We are, as a country and as a system, we are broken | :20:53. | :20:58. | |
You did a profile, or the Atlantic did one of you in 2014 | :20:59. | :21:03. | |
when you sounded so disillusioned with politics. | :21:04. | :21:05. | |
I wanted to ask you, you have written, "It's not | :21:06. | :21:11. | |
And you wrote a book, 'What Americans Really Want'. | :21:12. | :21:17. | |
There is an argument that you have spent years telling politicians, | :21:18. | :21:23. | |
So the politicians say it and then when they don't deliver, | :21:24. | :21:31. | |
which they arguably can't, funnily enough the voters get angry. | :21:32. | :21:34. | |
And it's the responsibility of the politicians and the people | :21:35. | :21:36. | |
who advise them to not only know what's possible but to know | :21:37. | :21:39. | |
what could be done with the right kind of leadership. | :21:40. | :21:43. | |
I have never advised a politician to say anything that | :21:44. | :21:46. | |
I never advised them to change position on an issue. | :21:47. | :21:54. | |
In fact, one of the things I have been trying to clarify is that I do | :21:55. | :21:58. | |
think politics is too negative and I think you find what's wrong | :21:59. | :22:01. | |
with our opponents and go with that rather than focusing on what's right | :22:02. | :22:05. | |
The essence of good politics is good communication. | :22:06. | :22:11. | |
Based around fundamental philosophy and a commitment to principles that | :22:12. | :22:18. | |
accept that you can make a mistake, but you have to fix it, | :22:19. | :22:24. | |
and the most important value is accountability and admit | :22:25. | :22:28. | |
when you get it wrong, as I did with Donald Trump | :22:29. | :22:30. | |
in August, and you can't just plan for today, | :22:31. | :22:34. | |
So many interviews on shows like this are confrontational | :22:35. | :22:39. | |
because you're trying to get them to do | :22:40. | :22:42. | |
You're trying to get them to say, "I messed up". | :22:43. | :22:45. | |
It's the advice I gave Hillary Clinton. | :22:46. | :22:49. | |
Admit you made a mistake in Benghazi, admit that your reset | :22:50. | :22:52. | |
with Putin didn't work, admit that what happens | :22:53. | :22:56. | |
and what has happened in Syria is wrong. | :22:57. | :22:58. | |
And then say, and this is what I have learnt and this | :22:59. | :23:01. | |
In May you wrote, "I'm fearful of expressing my concern | :23:02. | :23:08. | |
publicly about the poison and toxicity of American politics. | :23:09. | :23:10. | |
Not for my safety, for my business relationships. | :23:11. | :23:17. | |
Also for people taking advantage, for people using it... | :23:18. | :23:26. | |
The inability of people to connect to each other, | :23:27. | :23:41. | |
to work out their differences is destroying the body politic that | :23:42. | :23:43. | |
for the last 240 years has been essential in moving | :23:44. | :23:46. | |
If you want to understand the core of the challenges they face | :23:47. | :24:02. | |
emotionally and intellectually, it is that for the first four | :24:03. | :24:06. | |
decades of my life I could find a solution and a way out. | :24:07. | :24:09. | |
For the first time in my professional life I don't know. | :24:10. | :24:12. | |
Frank Luntz, thank you for coming on HARDtalk. | :24:13. | :24:17. | |
Hello there. For those of you suffering with the storms over the | :24:18. | :24:50. | |
last | :24:51. | :24:51. |