Paolo Gentiloni, Italian Foreign Minister HARDtalk

Welcome to HARDtalk, with me, Zeinab Badawi, in Rome. Migration, the

euro, and, of course, Brexit, are testing the European Union as never

before. In Italy there's talk of another possible blow for the EU. If

voters use a forthcoming referendum on constitutional change as a chance

to register a protest vote against the country's centre-left

government, anti-Euro populist parties may be able to capitalise.

Are Italians becoming disillusioned with the EU project? My guest is

Italy's Foreign Minister, Paolo Gentiloni.

THEME SONG PLAYS. Paolo Gentiloni, welcome to HARDtalk. Thank you.

Could Italy deliver the next big blow for the European Union? For

sure. Really? Definitely. You might lose the referendum in October.

Opinion polls say it is neck and neck. We are confident we will win

the referendum. It isn't about the EU or the government, it is a

referendum about constitutional reforms. Editable it complicated to

explain to a non- Italian. --A little bit. It tries to shift power

away from the Senate towards the Lower House. And to lower the amount

of members of Parliament. And to bring more stability to Italy. You

have had a revolving door programme for migration. That may be the case.

But the fact of the matter is Italy is in a bad state. Look at the

economy. A large number of your banks are failing to capitalise at

all. They are in a bad position, 30% of them. You have bad unemployment.

1% GDP growth and colossal public debt. You know, voters are angry.

They could see it as a protest vote to give your government. Nobody

knows. Well, you know, you have to consider

this kind of situation on the basis of what was

the situation in the last five, Because yes, you are right,

Italy's growth rate is not so high but we didn't have growth for three

or four years. Now, since a couple of years,

it is again going up. We are having a lot of reforms,

including the labour market. This is, I think, giving our

economy more confidence. But the fact of the matter is,

the Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, has said that if he loses

the referendum he will resign and the whole government

will go down with him. You don't know, that's

what David Cameron thought Why would he take such a high

risk strategy though, seeing as it has backfired

for David Cameron in the UK with Brexit, saying "if I lose

the referendum I'm off", I think it is a kind of message

to mobilise our people, but we are absolutely

confident that we will win because the constitutional change

the parliament decided, we have waited in our country

since decades so we have now the opportunity

to put them in practice. All right, but I have to say to you,

that's what you hope but it Marco Protopapa, an economist

at JP Morgan in London, says a negative outcome in Italy

would herald a new phase of extremely high political

uncertainty with a notable absence of major centrist leaders

and a rising risk of populist That is how the Italy domino

could actually be triggered because we know the populist party,

the Five Star Movement, is ahead of the Democratic Party

in the polls and they are calling We risk it before because of

a British referendum, not You are quoting,

mentioning our surveys. Yes, we have surveys every week

and I think that in the last three years, one week, one single week,

the one you are mentioning, so the Five Star Movement

0.4 points... I mean, Democratic Party 29.8,

and the Five Star Movement 30.64 opinion polls, quite different

from the start of the year. And one week in the last three

years. Listen, they won 19 of the 20

mayoral elections in Italy, including the mayor

of Rome and Turin. And we won 72, so it

is 72 against 90. If someone had worried

about the future of the European economy and European stability,

he is perfectly right. But the reason to be worried is that

unfortunately we had a referendum in the UK and the Remain position

lost the referendum. We hope to be part of the solution,

and it will not be easy, The EU commission president,

Jean-Claude Juncker, said of the Brexit vote,

"We must stop the vote which took place in Britain as a vote that

should be shaping policy in Europe." It sounds like you are

disagreeing with him, you think it has had an impact,

it is causing people to be So he's

wrong? Maybe he said this so bluntly

I don't agree with him because UK is one of the three main

European countries. How can we believe the fact

the majority of the UK citizens decided after a very,

very long period, decades of participation to the EU,

if the majority to decide to leave, can you imagine that we,

the other 27 member states, It is obvious that it is something

very, very serious for Europe OK, well given that your position

is different from Mr Juncker's there, you know there has been quite

a bit of criticism about him, unattributed sources,

or even some people speaking openly, like the Czech Foreign Minister,

saying he is not suitable for the job, what is Italy's

position on Mr Juncker? We contributed to his election

because there was an agreement between the conservatives

and the socialist I think that President Juncker tried

to give to the EU commission a role in this complicated

situation, but the fact is that the European Commission

is still something different It has not the legitimacy

to represent the European citizens, so we have to go forward

in this process. So when the Prime Minister,

Matteo Renzi, here said that people don't like being lectured

by a schoolteacher in Brussels - they were his exact words -

do you think he might have been talking about

Jean-Claude Juncker? All right, so after Brexit,

the debate, you said, is a wake-up call in a way,

isn't it, for Europe. So the question is, how

does Europe respond? Does it say the major Eurosceptic

nation is now voting to leave the EU, we can either go

down more integration, more federalism, or you could say,

well, we have seen the degree of Euroscepticism in the UK,

we have to heed that and make sure we understand people's concerns

about to watch Europe? Well, my opinion is that the real

issue of the debate was not so much, even in the UK as far

as I understand, was not so much if we have too much or not too much

Europe. It was about two or three main

issues that are now worrying First of all migration,

and number two the economic crisis, jobs, and many in our public

opinions, and it is clear in the UK also, are blaming Europe, Brussels,

for these kind of problems. No, but it is how you respond to it

now that I'm asking you, Foreign Minister, because as I said

there's two stark options in Italy. The finance minister,

Carlo Padoan, has talked about having a common budget,

Treasury, for eurozone members. And even an unemployment

insurance scheme. Now that sounds quite

integrationalist if you ask me. Yes, but I don't think that this

is the moment to launch a big debate on the architecture

of the European Union. I think that our citizens,

if after such a serious event as the British referendum,

we would react with the debate on European architecture

for more integration, less integration, they will consider

us a little bit mad. What they are asking the Europe

and to the 27 European governments is to solve or at least to give

a contribution to solve the two The 27 EU countries -

have you already taken If the UK want to change this

decision, I will take Do you think Brexit

is definitely going to happen? For sure it is not up to the Italian

Foreign Minister to decide. What I can say that in the last 20

years we saw decisions, referendums, in Europe changed by other

referendums or even by decisions Denmark for instance,

the Maastricht Treaty they voted against and then another referendum

they accepted in the '90s, yes. But this is obviously to UK citizens

and government to decide, not us. But do you think

it is a possibility? I am saying 27 because they decided

to leave, not because I decided. The timing, there are those who say

Article 50, you know, that's when you start the break-up

and not before, is still a fully paid-up member

of the EU. It is, it is, but at the same

time I think reasonable what the Foreign Secretary Philip

Hammond, told me the day after the referendum,

he told me, look, Paolo, we have to wait for the new leader,

the new Prime Minister, and he has to take

this decision. He or she has to take the decision,

correct, but this cannot The Latins use the word

ad libitum - forever. The situation for 27 countries

and 450 million people. So, you agree with the Belgian Prime

Minister, Charles Michel, when he told the Times newspaper,

you can't say "I want a divorce but I will live

with you for a little I think this is up to the UK

to decide but the time is when the new UK leadership

will be in place, at this moment I think we have

to begin the process. I repeat, if the decision to leave

is not a decision taken, but this is for the UK people

and government not for me. Just to finish off on whether this

integration is federalism, and you said it's not really

the right time to have this debate, Donald Tusk, the European Council

president, himself a Pole, because they are more

on the Eurosceptic side, and by the way you know the east

and central European countries have said that they don't want to be kind

of stitched up by the big three - Italy, France and Germany -

deciding what's going to happen. He has said, "Increasingly louder

are those who question the very principle of a united Europe

and a vision of a federation doesn't seem to me to be

the best answer to it." You cannot press on with grand

schemes any more in Europe, can you? I think the grand scheme for us now

is three words. Migration, jobs and

economy, security. This is where EU will show

its resilience and its future. If you ask me about structure

of Europe, I will answer that it is not now that

we will discuss this. When we will discuss this,

our position is yes, we need more integration,

but not because it More integration at 27,

or 28 if UK comes back, level. Just to get that, so it could also

leave but come back With your vast experience, you think

that is also a possibility? OK, so you said migration,

jobs and security, the EU has got First of all, let's look at EU

migration, within the EU, and as we know, that was one

of the key issues, people coming from other parts

of the European Union enter the UK. This is one of the main pillars

of the European Union, but it is now actually,

post-Brexit, being questioned. Even Manuel Valls,

the French Prime Minister, has said of this that he is threatening to no

longer apply EU laws on workers because EU migrants

are undercutting French standards. EU migration and jobs for people

in their own country, was always a problem in the last 20

years. I personally remember,

I am not a young guy, the threat of Polish workers

when there was the enlargement Everybody in Italy but also

in France and other countries was saying, "oh,

now we will have an invasion Then we had the same phenomenon

in Italy about Romania. "Oh, the Romanians

are arriving," etc etc. I think we should be realistic

and say that after 60 years, we have an extraordinary achievement

of the fact that within Europe, so huge area and the richest area

of the world, there is the free It has disadvantages,

but it is the basis also You cannot have the common unique

market having all the privileges and the advantages of a single

market and not having So, you agree then with

Angela Merkel when she is saying in the context of the UK Brexit

again that it is not exercise on the single

market, to use her words? You say yes, we will accept

the trade but not the free movement With the same issue

we are discussing since one year One of the most relevant economic

partners of EU. Not a member, they had a referendum

against the circulation of persons and this referendum

created huge problems That's the one they had in 2014

and it is still a matter of dispute. You said we have got

to answer voters' needs, jobs, and also on migration,

and still just sticking with the intra-EU migration,

that will be a difficult Because, as I've just said,

the French are worried, I think that we are very happy

in general with the internal freedom We are happy of having many,

many UK and France citizens It is something that

makes our societies more rich. London is one of the most admired

cities in the world, also because it has 500,000

Italians. It is something that in all

the world that we envy the UK. So, that is on the intra-EU

migration, but another big issue in the EU,

both for governments and voters, is migration from outside

the European Union. Yes, and again the EU has failed

woefully to do anything about this. We had the Germans in particular

pushing for the mandatory refugee policy, the law was passed

in September last year. We've only had a few thousand

distributed on the basis You've got eastern and central

European countries putting up their borders to other EU

countries, dealing a blow to Schengen, so clearly the EU

is really not addressing, You are right, you are right,

and I think that we Italians are the one that are most affected

by this problem directly because other European

countries, especially on the so-called Balkan

route - Turkey, Greece, Macedonia, Serbia and so

on towards Germany and Austria -

were affected by this flow of migration beginning from July,

August last year. But we have very significant

migration flows coming from Africa Your finance minister, Carlo Padoan,

has warned of a threat of a possible breakdown of Europe's borderless

Schengen region, and he says, "If Schengen fails,

this is going to be more destructive But that is correct

because the issue that is most destabilising Europe

is exactly migration. The issue of external

migration, not intra-EU migration, A big flow of non-EU

migrants arriving in UK, it was an extraordinary issue

in itself, the idea of the world So, you are right that Brussels,

the EU, the member states were not able in these years to tackle

the migration phenomenon correctly. I think we have to accelerate

because the situation is now under control in the Aegean Sea,

apparently, but we are not sure how long it will last, and we know

that the differences between Africa and Europe will remain there for 20

years, not for two months. You said also that one

of the key things you want We talked about migration,

jobs and security. I mean, Italy has for instance

talked about a UN peacekeeping force for Libya to stop people coming

and obviously the terror threat But post the Chilcot inquiry report

that we have had in the UK, there's going to be no real

appetite in the west, is there, for that kind

of intervention to go The mistake we should not repeat,

and we did it not only in Iraq but also Libya, is to go

there without any Libyan ownership and to leave after having bombed

in some way Libya after What we can do is, if stabilisation

of Libya is going on, and if the Libyan government

is asking for support for training, But you can help them,

you cannot go there, bombing a country, and then

going back home. This was a mistake that you cannot

repeat and we will not repeat. Paolo Gentiloni, thank you very much

indeed for coming on HARDtalk. The general trends for the week

ahead of weather are clear.