02/02/2016 Outside Source


02/02/2016

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It's been a big day in the politics of the European Union.

:00:10.:00:18.

David Cameron says a referendum on EU membership could be held

:00:19.:00:21.

Earlier, the EU unveiled draft reforms designed to persuade Britain

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We will also speak about US politics. Hillary Clinton beat

:00:27.:00:36.

Bernie Sanders into second place and Ted Cruz beat Donald Trump into

:00:37.:00:40.

second place. Any questions on that story, feel free to get in touch. We

:00:41.:00:45.

will be live in Washington and New Hampshire. We will have more on the

:00:46.:00:52.

link between pregnant women who contract Zika virus and a brain

:00:53.:00:56.

abnormality called microcephaly. We will hear the story of a Brazilian

:00:57.:00:59.

journalist who suffers from the condition. I guess it was not long

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before this came along-high end drawn racing, being watched by

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millions online. We got in touch with someone to find out how it

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works at this race circuit. As I mentioned, if you have questions on

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any of the two big stories, these EU reforms and also on the race for the

:01:21.:01:23.

White House, you can use the hashtag and I will do my

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Let's begin with the negotiations between Donald Tusk, the European

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Council president, and David Cameron. Mr Cameron is committed to

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renegotiating the UK's relationship with Europe and then holding an

:01:57.:02:06.

in-out referendum. This letter sets out the proposed deal that has been

:02:07.:02:10.

agreed. We will hear from Brussels and London to get two different

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perspectives on this in a minute. Before that, to understand what is

:02:16.:02:20.

being agreed, let's look at the foundations of the European Union.

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It has 28 member countries and they have all signed a range of treaties

:02:24.:02:27.

which are essentially agreement assuring various things, like free

:02:28.:02:33.

movement of people, goods, services and capital, and also closer

:02:34.:02:35.

political integration between members and, just as importantly,

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common policies on trade, agriculture, fisheries and regional

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development. He did Cameron wants to put checks on several of these.

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Firstly let's get the assessment of the document I just showed you from

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the BBC's Norman Smith in Downing Street.

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Well, he has got some of what he wanted, but not

:02:58.:02:59.

all of what he wanted, so he has secured an

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agreement to introduce a ban on EU migrants being able to claim

:03:03.:03:05.

benefits in Britain for four years, but there is no detail on how long

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this particular ban will stay in place, who will decide when it

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should come into force, and he has also agreed to a very

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complex and unexplained scheme to allow EU

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migrants to gradually receive more and more in benefits,

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Similarly, he has secured what is called a red

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card scheme, whereby national parliaments can lobby together

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to block bits of EU legislation which

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they don't like, but it transpires they will only be able to block very

:03:30.:03:33.

limited areas of legislation, and lastly he has, yes,

:03:34.:03:35.

sought some sort of safeguards to protect countries

:03:36.:03:37.

like Britain outside the single currency from being pushed around

:03:38.:03:39.

by members of the euro, but it is not

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at all clear how much power he will actually have,

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because it seems the only thing Britain would be able to do

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So Mr Cameron is trumpeting this as a

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His critics are saying, no, it is much ado about

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Just before I let you go, Norman, is this the basis

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of what David Cameron will turn to the

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country and offer, or is there still negotiation to happen?

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There is still critical negotiation ahead,

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because this document has to be approved by all 27 other members

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of the European Union, so a huge amount

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of intensive diplomacy will have to to take place over the next

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fortnight, head of that EU summit, but I think it is worth suggesting

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that when voters in Britain go to the polls, I doubt very much

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whether it will be this document that will

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Much more likely, I would suggest, is there a gut instinct,

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how they feel in their bones - do they think that Britain

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is better off in the European Union, or better off getting out?

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The Eu has a total population of about 740 million.

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64 million in the UK, so less than 10%.

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Let's look at economy - the Eu's total economic output

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is thought to be about 15 and a half trillion dollars.

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The UK's contribution to that is SWIPE 2.7 trillion,

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So it's punching above its weight in terms of output per person.

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I was saying right at the Central of these negotiations is the European

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president. To quote a little bit of Shakespeare, here. But it is not

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just a question of persuading David Cameron that this is a good idea. He

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represents all of the leaders within the European Union and he has two

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persuade all of them as well. Here is Ben Wright talking us through

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that side of the story. One is the in work

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welfare payments that EU David Cameron wants

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to stop them getting those There is agreement in

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principle that that can happen, but a great deal

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of uncertainty about exactly how that mechanism will

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work, for how long There are big gaps in this draft

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document that need to be filled in over the next couple of weeks,

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and he is going to face, we think, resistance from Central

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and eastern European countries in particular, countries which see

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a lot of their population go to the UK to work,

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and I think any sense that this is discriminatory,

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that it is unfair, So I think on that

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front, lots of work to do, and as Norman was saying,

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this issue are protecting the rights of countries like Britain that don't

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have the Euro within an EU that is seeing the

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Eurozone pulled closer together in terms of economic

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governance, that relationship remains quite unclear

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and there is work to do on that front too, and I think France

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is one of the countries who are very worried that Britain

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is trying to exercise special powers or special protections

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for the City of London, and I think that is one

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of the reasons why they were still working on this draft document

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at two o'clock this morning. There are big areas still the iron

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out, as Donald said just then. This is the other big story in the

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BBC newsroom. We have the first two victories

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in the battle for the two Ted Cruz on the Republican side -

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Hillary Clinton on But she only won by a whisker,

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and in some precincts it came down to this between her

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and Bernie Sanders. That's right - a coin toss plays

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a role in deciding who gets a shot at becoming the most powerful

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person in the world. If you didn't follow

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the coverage as it unfolded, God bless the great state of Iowa!

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APPLAUSE We finished second, and I want to

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tell you something. I am just honoured... Tonight is a victory for

:08:52.:08:55.

courageous conservatives across Iowa. We will be back many, many

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times. In fact, I think I might come back here and buy a farm! That is

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the most votes ever cast for any Republican primary winner! They told

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me we have no chance because my hero wasn't great enough and my boots

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were too high! -- hair wasn't grey enough. As I stand here tonight,

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breathing a big sigh of relief - thank you, Iowa! A profound message

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to the political establishment and, by the way, the media establishment!

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That message we hold out for our children and grandchildren never

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fades but inspires generations to come. Join me. God bless you!

:09:54.:09:59.

Hillary Clinton giving her speech, after saying she had won. Look at

:10:00.:10:03.

the numbers here for the Republicans. What did I jest. You

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can pick out Jeb Bush, only 2.8%, which will be a huge disappointment

:10:09.:10:14.

to him and his donors. Marco Rubio appalled really well, just narrowly

:10:15.:10:18.

beaten by Donald Trump on 24% but right at the top of the pile and no

:10:19.:10:22.

serious contender in this race, Ted Cruz. He had been pulling close to

:10:23.:10:28.

Donald Trump but this will be big friend -- now a serious contender.

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Here is the analysis from Washington for Outside Source a little earlier.

:10:37.:10:41.

It was a big night for Ted Cruz. He was trailing Donald Trump in the

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polls but he had a ground game here in Iowa and it ended up overcoming

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any enthusiasm Trump voters showed leading up to this. He was working

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Iowa for a year, going to churches, talking to evangelical voters and

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keeping tabs on them. Next, let's look at the Democrat numbers.

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Hillary Clinton close to 50%. Bernie Sanders on 49.6% and I am afraid the

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other contenders did not make any sort of a mark. Going back to here,

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I guess the story is how close Bernie Sanders got? Yes, six months

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ago he was on single digits here in Iowa so the fact he claimed all the

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way a virtual tie with a former Secretary of State with the name

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recognition of Hillary Clinton is pretty remarkable. He will now go to

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New Hampshire where he has a good shot of winning and at that point it

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will be interesting to see whether Hillary Clinton's organisation

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throughout the nation is able to overcome the momentum Bernie Sanders

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has. The Fox News opinion site here. After Iowa, keep your eye on Marco

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Rubio, not Trump or Ted Cruz. A lot of commentators would see what --

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say he was the biggest winner of the night? In third place but his speech

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sounded like a victory speech, and for good reason. He was able to

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outpace expectations. He almost caught Donald Trump for second place

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and no of all the establishment candidates he has the wind at his

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back and we'll be going to New Hampshire where the others have been

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camping out, but he will go back with the perception as someone on

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the rise. That is Iowa Don and this is what is coming next. New

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Hampshire, next Tuesday, and from there we go on to Nevada and South

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Carolina -- Iowa done. They hold various polls between the 20th and

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27th of debris and then a day which could, not definitely, but could

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decide this whole process. The 1st of March, Alabama, Arkansas,

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Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee... Here is a more detailed breakdown.

:12:56.:12:59.

These all hold primaries for both parties and on top of that we also

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have while roaming and Alaska looking at issues for the

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Republicans in Colorado -- and Colorado for the Democrats. The

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focus will be on New Hampshire. Our BBC correspondent is there. She has

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just been at a Bernie Sanders rally. How is it going? I just stepped out.

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It is still going on but what I really got from that rally is that,

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firstly, he has a huge support base amongst younger voters. It is not

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just here but in Iowa if you number crunch the figures of who actually

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voted in those coppers as yesterday, 84% of those went for Bernie

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Sanders, as opposed to Hillary Clinton -- caucuses yesterday. That

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shows his reach in that young democratic. -- demographic. New

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Hampshire has a young demographic as well and if Bernie Sanders can tap

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into that it will play to his advantage. He is actually a head in

:14:03.:14:07.

the polls year by about 20 percentage points or has a big

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advantage over Hillary Clinton although they have not been polls

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taken since last night's result. The other thing in his favour is that

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this is home territory for him as he is the senator for Vermont, and

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neighbouring state. He spoke about the three Rs, a political

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regulation, spoke at about a red economy and says he wants radical

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change -- rig economy. How does his funding compare with Hillary

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Clinton? He has managed to raise money, not on the scale Hillary

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Clinton has, from smaller donations. That might sound familiar because it

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was the model Barack Obama used when he was running for president,

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getting smaller donations, and also in the same vein actually energising

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this is time for two base, people who do not always turn out to the

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polls, by getting them to register -- first time voter base. I should

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just say that of course we also have a Republican race here in New

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Hampshire that will be hotly contested. The polls, nonsense last

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night's result, but they say Donald Trump is still way ahead in the

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Republican field. He is here tonight, he has a rally in New

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Hampshire and will be working up to the wire to show he can be a winner,

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unlike the result in Iowa. Anthony Stokes about Marco Rubio as an

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interesting third placed candidate and there are a lot of people in the

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Republican party who do not want a Donald Trump or Ted Cruz, they want

:15:49.:15:52.

someone more moderate and centrist in their policies so he is trying to

:15:53.:15:56.

step into those shoes but there are other names campaigning heavily here

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in New Hampshire. The former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and the governor

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of Jersey, Chris Christie, and they are all hoping if they can make a

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mark here in New Hampshire that will set the tone for the campaign ahead.

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Plenty to play for here on both sides. It will be an interesting

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week. Thank you very much indeed. I will let you get back into Bernie

:16:19.:16:22.

Sanders. That was life from New Hampshire. Every day for the last

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two or three weeks we have been covering the Zika virus, first in

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Brazil and then in the Americas and in a little while on Outside Source

:16:30.:16:33.

we will play you the account of one woman who has been living with the

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condition which the Zika virus can cause, and it is believed can be

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passed on to mothers having babies who have the virus. We will hear

:16:45.:16:51.

about her experience. Three bodies have been found at a house in the

:16:52.:16:55.

North of England. Police were called to a property near Leeds just before

:16:56.:17:00.

noon after concerns were raised about the occupants. Officers are

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also liaising with police in North Wales following the discovery of a

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body in Anglesey. Danny Savage reports. Police have confirmed they

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are now treating this as a murder inquiry. When became into the house

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by the late this morning they found three bodies in the house. The body

:17:17.:17:21.

of a woman downstairs, and of two children upstairs. We understand

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from neighbours those two children are a girl aged about 11 and also a

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boy aged about six years old. How long they have been there is unclear

:17:31.:17:36.

and so police are no investigating in great detail what actually

:17:37.:17:39.

happened here and what the circumstances are -- now

:17:40.:17:42.

investigating full stop in the words of West Yorkshire Police they are

:17:43.:17:47.

treating this as domestic related incident although they are not

:17:48.:17:49.

speculative about who was responsible or exactly what

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happened. This is Outside Source and were alive from the BBC newsroom.

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Our lead story is David Cameron is saying at referendum on the EU

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membership could be held within a few months. Earlier the EU unveiled

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draft reforms designed to persuade the UK to stay. Let's turn to some

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of the main stories from the BBC World Service at the moment. 50,000

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people have been stranded outside a train station in Guangzhou in China.

:18:23.:18:31.

They are trying to get home for the Chinese New Year holiday and that is

:18:32.:18:35.

clearly not going to happen. Snow in central China is causing delays and

:18:36.:18:39.

let's hope they get homes. The Supreme Court in India has agreed to

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look again at the Colonial era law that allows for ten jail sentences

:18:43.:18:52.

for anyone engaging in gay six. The law is really applied and

:18:53.:18:55.

campaigners say it is often used to threaten them. -- six. And this

:18:56.:19:02.

waterfall on the Isle of Mull in Scotland is being blown back on

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itself by the storm. You will find the video in the most watched list

:19:07.:19:15.

on the BBC news app. The last couple of weeks has seen extensive coverage

:19:16.:19:19.

of the Zika virus, primarily because when a pregnant woman has the virus

:19:20.:19:24.

it is believed likely it can cause brain abnormalities in her baby. The

:19:25.:19:29.

condition is called microcephaly. BBC Brasil has been speaking to

:19:30.:19:33.

journalists living with it. My skull is smaller than average. I suffer

:19:34.:19:38.

from microcephaly. The doctor gave his diagnosis. She will not walk or

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talk and will enter into a vegetative state until she dies.

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Like many others, he was wrong. I grew up, I went to school, went to

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university and today I am a journalist. I chose journalism to

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give a voice to people like me who do not feel represented. With the

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spike of microcephaly cases in Brazil the need for information is

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more important than ever and people need to leave their prejudices

:20:04.:20:07.

aside. The Minister for health, for example, he said Brazil will have a

:20:08.:20:12.

damaged generation because of microcephaly. If I had the chance to

:20:13.:20:16.

speak to him I would tell him, what is damaged is your statement, sir.

:20:17.:20:22.

Microcephaly is a box of surprises. You may suffer from serious problems

:20:23.:20:27.

or you may not. I believe those who want to have abortions do not give

:20:28.:20:31.

their children a chance to succeed and survive, as happened with me. I

:20:32.:20:36.

survived and lived, as so many others with microcephaly do. There

:20:37.:20:39.

are mothers did not choose abortion and that is why we exist. -- there

:20:40.:20:45.

are mothers. There is also background information on the Zika

:20:46.:20:49.

virus as well on the BBC News website. We have been speaking about

:20:50.:20:53.

the falling price of oil for months now and inevitably it is starting to

:20:54.:20:57.

hit the numbers of major oil companies. BP's share price today

:20:58.:21:03.

did this. It dropped 26 points, knocking around 7% of the company's

:21:04.:21:11.

value off. There was also a 50% drop in profits for Exxon Mobil. Let's

:21:12.:21:15.

bring in a correspondent live from New York. With regards to BP, oil

:21:16.:21:19.

prices have been down low for a while so why is it suffering today?

:21:20.:21:25.

The company is obviously suffering badly as a result of the price drop.

:21:26.:21:28.

It has had a huge impact on the company has been forced to lay off

:21:29.:21:33.

staff and all of this bit in to prop it will eat my profits and had

:21:34.:21:36.

investors scurrying for the doors. The company has been struggling for

:21:37.:21:43.

12 -- it bit into profits and had investors. Presumably there is only

:21:44.:21:48.

so much the business can do about this. It is not in control of the

:21:49.:21:53.

oil price? If you speak to anyone who has any experience in that

:21:54.:21:56.

industry and they will tell you it is a boom and bust industry, a

:21:57.:22:01.

cyclical one, and we are very much in a downturn. The question is how

:22:02.:22:05.

do you navigate the downturn is? I guess you could argue the price has

:22:06.:22:10.

fallen more sharply than many people anticipated -- downturns. If you

:22:11.:22:14.

look at the forecasts from Wall Street each week on the direction

:22:15.:22:17.

and price of oil, there does not seem an end in sight but if you look

:22:18.:22:22.

at Exxon Mobile, for example, executives they were trying to save

:22:23.:22:25.

cash and they say they will cut to much they invest back into the

:22:26.:22:28.

business because it takes a lot of money to try to get the black stuff

:22:29.:22:32.

out of the ground. They are cutting their spending by 25% this year and

:22:33.:22:37.

they have also cut back how much, how many shares they are buying

:22:38.:22:41.

back, which helps boost their share price so that gives you a sense of

:22:42.:22:46.

the steps companies are taking, the measures, in the case of BP, whether

:22:47.:22:50.

that is laying off staff, what they are doing to batten down the hatches

:22:51.:22:57.

until they start to see prices recover. Thank you, live from New

:22:58.:23:03.

York. Let's get some historical perspective on the crisis Michelle

:23:04.:23:07.

was analysing for us. This report features Mickey Clark looking back

:23:08.:23:14.

over the last 30 years. Oil has become the most volatile commodity

:23:15.:23:22.

of 1986... Hovering at $9 75... 30 years ago the price of oil dropped

:23:23.:23:29.

almost 70% from the year before. The price of North Sea oil has plummeted

:23:30.:23:33.

to a record low and prices could fall to just $5 a barrel. A once

:23:34.:23:39.

thriving North Sea oil sector was hit hard. Ormond oil rigs around the

:23:40.:23:45.

coast of Scotland show an invisible sign of the fall in production. This

:23:46.:23:50.

depression has hit the southern states faster than any they have

:23:51.:23:55.

known before. As the price dropped, even the Texan oil barons suffered.

:23:56.:24:00.

This is the most frightening time I have seen in my 29 years in the oil

:24:01.:24:05.

business. It is going to be a bad spring for borrowers. That is what

:24:06.:24:10.

is frightening investors and producers today. China is no longer

:24:11.:24:14.

consuming oil at the price it was and this means the US is less

:24:15.:24:18.

reliant on imports and Saudi Arabia refuses to cut back, so the

:24:19.:24:25.

unanswered question is how long will the recovery take? Will it be quick

:24:26.:24:31.

or take 20 years like last time? I think in terms of price recovery, to

:24:32.:24:35.

anything like $100 a barrel, that is a very long way into the future,

:24:36.:24:39.

because one of the other key parallels with the situation at the

:24:40.:24:44.

moment is that technology, in the form of US shale, has once again

:24:45.:24:47.

proved able to commercialise a lot of hydrocarbon that was otherwise

:24:48.:24:51.

uncommercial and that genie is not going back in the bottle. One thing

:24:52.:24:56.

for sure is that all the time oil is becoming more expensive to get out

:24:57.:25:00.

of the ground and the producers must continue to invest in the future.

:25:01.:25:03.

Not much chance of that if they start racking up losses. Just a few

:25:04.:25:13.

minutes ago I had a report on the Zika virus. We have won almost every

:25:14.:25:16.

day at the moment. That story has left the Indian car-maker with a

:25:17.:25:23.

predicament. Look at this advert it has recently posted for their newer

:25:24.:25:27.

models, and you can see that while there may be a difference, it still

:25:28.:25:39.

sounds the same. The car is called Zica, and they even have an Lionel

:25:40.:25:43.

Messi photo shopped in there, but they have announced they will change

:25:44.:25:46.

their name. What they have not told us is what they will change it to.

:25:47.:25:50.

This was Outside Source. Thank you very much for watching, keep your

:25:51.:25:54.

comments coming in and I will speak to you in two or three minutes'

:25:55.:25:57.

time.

:25:58.:25:58.

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