18/05/2014 Sunday Politics East

Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until

election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader

on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections

on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls

are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a

difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised

an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the

campaign trail, he has been asking all the big

campaign trail, he has been asking Here in the East: We are in Luton

discussing the European elections, where a panel of candidates will

join me to answer questions from our audience here today ahead

elections, and the 50th anniversary of the first elections to London's

32 boroughs. I am in the studio, with those who think they have got

all the big answers. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it

is the European elections for everybody on Thursday, local

elections for England and a bit of Northern Ireland as well. They are

the last elections before the big one, the 2015 general election. Some

say that these European and local elections will not be much of a

pointer to how the big one goes. But that will not stop political

commentators and party gurus from examining them closely. So, what is

at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is local elections and European

Parliament elections. These local results should be known

by Friday. In the European elections, all 751 members of the

European Parliament will be elected across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let

it by people living in the UK. But the results will not be announced

until Sunday night, after voting has closed throughout the 28 member

states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are in a position where the polls this

morning cannot tell us what the outcome is going to be on Thursday,

and the general election is still wide open - we really are in

uncharted territory? Also it is difficult to know where we are,

because there is that ComRes poll which shows an 11 point lead amongst

those certain to vote for UKIP, and another poll in the Sunday Times

showing that it is a much more slender lead for UKIP. But we know

that will they win? We do not know, but clearly they will unsettle the

major parties. Fall or five months ago, we assumed that the UKIP

success would create panic in the Conservative Party, but that has

been factored into David Cameron's share price. The Conservative Party

is remarkably relaxed at the moment, and I wonder whether this time next

week, when we have the results, whether the two political leaders

who will be under pressure will be Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick

Clegg, because they could go down from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or

four. And Ed Miliband, because, one year before a general election, he

should be showing that he is a significant, potent electoral

force. So, they should all be worried about UKIP, but whereas a

couple of months ago, we would all have said David Cameron was the one

who should be worried, now, we are saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr

Clegg? And of the two, I think it is Ed Miliband who should be worried.

The Lib Dems are an incredibly resilient party. He described his

own party as cockroaches, and incredible resilience! I think the

Lib Dems are ready to take this one, but I think Labour are really wobbly

at the moment. What UKIP has done, to England, it means that England

has caught up with Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, England

now has a four party system, which makes it all the more uncertain what

the outcome will be? Yes, but whether UKIP finish first or second,

it will be the biggest insurgent event since the European elections

began in 1979. People talk about the Greens in 1989, but I think they

finished third. Were UKIP to win a national election or even finish

runner-up, it would be truly historic. It is reflecting on

something which is happening across Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland,

France and in this country. -- populist parties. And it makes first

past the post look absolutely ridiculous. You could be in a

situation after the next general election where Labour do not get the

largest percentage of the vote but they get the largest number of

seats. First past the post works fairly if there are only two

parties, but when there are four... We will talk more about that. Let's

speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP. She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP

claims that there is going to be an earthquake in British politics on

Thursday. Suppose there is, what does UKIP then need to do to become

a more grown-up, proper party? I think UKIP has very much become a

grown-up, proper party. We have been around for 20 years. What we are

going to be doing after the European elections, if we do cause this

earthquake, and the polls are looking like we are going to, is we

will be firmly looking towards 2015, getting our general election

manifesto out, to keep those votes on board from the euro elections and

putting forward common-sense policies which really will bring

Britain back to the people. We want to be able to hold the balance of

power come the general election. If we can do that then there will be a

referendum. That will be our aim. You say you are a more grown-up

party, but when you look at the stream of gaffes and controversies

created by your candidates and members, I will not go into them

this morning, at the very least, I would suggest you are needing a more

robust system of selection? You could say the same for the other

three parties, who have been around for a lot longer. They have got

nothing like the embarrassments you had. I am afraid they had. Just this

week, since Monday, we have had 17 Liberal Democrat, labour or

Conservative councillors either arrested, charged or convicted on

all manner of offences. In addition we have had 13 who have been

involved in some kind of racist, sexist or homophobic incident. I am

not saying I am proud of any of that. The whole of politics probably

needs to be cleaned up, but I certainly do not think we are any

worse than the other parties, who have much greater resources than we

do. Those other parties are even putting people in power who they

know have got criminal convictions or who have previously belonged to

far right, fascist parties like the BNP. Can you continue to be a

one-man band? The only time any other UKIP petition makes the

headlines is when they say something loony or objectionable? We have a

huge amount of talent in this party. We have fantastic spokespeople

across the patch, the huge amount of expertise in the party. Inevitably

the media focuses on Nigel Farage, who is a fantastic, charismatic

leader. But believe me, there is a huge amount of talent. When we get

our MEPs into power after the European elections, we will see many

more of them I think on television and radio and in the newspapers. We

are not a one-man band. Who runs your party? The party is run by

Nigel Farage, our leader. But he spends all his time running between

television studios and in and out of the pub! You would be amazed how

much he does, and of course we have a National Executive Committee, like

the other parties. So who runs it? The National Executive Committee, in

conjunction with Nigel Farage, the MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a

joint effort. Your Local Government Minister Stosur is, if you vote

UKIP, you go on to pledge that your councillors will not toe the party

line, how does that work? -- your local government manifesto says...

On the main policies, they will toe the party line, because that is

obviously what people will be voting for. It is no good putting forward a

manifesto like the Lib Dems did on 2010 and going back on it. We have

put forward a lot of positive -- a lot of policies at local government

level, and those we will stick to. But when it comes to individual,

local issues, say, a particular development or the closure of a

school, whatever, UKIP then will vote what they think is in the best

interests of the people in the borough, and not according to any

party whip system. This plays out really well on the doorstep, I find.

People do not want their politicians to be in the pockets of their

party, putting party first, ahead of the people. You want people to vote

to leave the European Union in a referendum - have you published a

road map as to what would then happen? Yes, there will be a road

map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first time gave us that exit opportunity.

Have you published a road map? I am not the legal expert on this but

there are ways in which you can come out of Europe fairly quickly. There

is a longer you all as well. But have you published any of that

detail? Not that I have read. But certainly there are ways to do it.

We are the sixth strongest world economy, I think we are in a strong

position having left the EU to be able to negotiate a very good trade

deal with the European Union. It is what people voted for in 1975. What

would be our exact status? It would be I think what people voted for

back in 1975. An independent, sovereign country in a trade

agreement, a very positive and valuable trade agreement with the

European Union. I voted in that referendum, I remember it well, 1975

involved the free movement of people 's... That is something which I do

not think UKIP or the country wants. 70% of people now are deeply

concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it

sounds like you are complaining that we might have something which is

better than 1975. I am just trying to find out what it is! That sounds

like positive to me. We will negotiate a trade deal and all

manner of issues, whatever is best for the British people. We want our

sovereignty back, we want our country back. Would you be upset if

a bunch of Rumanian men moved in next door to you? Where I live, I am

surrounded by one and two-bedroom flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in

next door to me, I would want to ask questions. That is very different

from say a Robinho family moving in next door. I would think, are they

being ripped off, are they up to no good or are they perhaps being

trafficked by a gang master? So I think it would be of concern, and I

do not think there is anything wrong with that, it is a humanitarian

approach. That would be different from a family moving in who were

learning to speak English, who wanted to contribute to the British

economy. Maybe if your boss is watching, he will now have found out

how to answer that question. Now, what is more glamorous, 24

hours in the life of a counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours

in the life of Adam Fleming, on the campaign trail? I will let you make

up your own mind. So, it is eight o'clock in the morning here in

Westminster. Today's challenge is, how much campaigning for the local

and European elections can we fit into 12 hours? See you back here at

eight o'clock tonight. Wish me luck. With my cameraman and

producer, we went to Thurrock in Essex first. I got a very, very warm

welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They have never had this much attention.

One candidate's misdemeanour ends up on the front page. But you have got

Lib Dem candidates being convicted of racially aggravated assault, and

that was not on the front pages of the newspapers. Houdini is fine but

it must be applied evenly. Have you had to sack Thurrock UKIP members

for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh, God, no. Next we head to meet a top

Tory in a different area. We are heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in

traffic. We are going to miss William Hague. We got there, just in

time, to ask the really big questions. David Cameron went to

Nando De Colo last week, where are you going to go for lunch? I do not

even get time for lunch. I think something in the back of the car. We

will go down the street and see what people have got to say. Even the

Foreign Secretary has depressed the flesh at election time? Even the

Foreign Secretary meets real people. The message William Hague impresses

upon everyone he meets is that the Tories are the only party offering a

referendum on our membership of the EU. He's off for lunch in the limo.

I've got five minutes by the beach. This is the best thing about

elections, lunch. Do you want one? And chips are weirdly relevant at

our next stop - the Green Party battle bus which is parked in

Ashford in Kent. What is special about this vehicle? It runs from

chip fat oil so it is more friendly to the environment. But boss was

boiling. The next stop is Gillingham to see Labour. Labour have just

hired Barack Obama's election guru David Axelrod to help them craft

their message. What does David Axelrod know about the people who

live on the street? I know the local details but you handle those. Ed

Miliband and his party have had to handle a few dodgy opinion polls

lately, prompting some leadership speculation from one activist. Who

is your favourite Labour politician? Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're

flagging. Final stop, Southwark in south London. We are in the right

place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning

as the party of in. But are they in trouble? Your party president said

the party would be wiped out and lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If

he did say that, then no, that's not terribly helpful. And let's not

forget, every London council is having elections too. I have 40

minutes to get back to the office in Westminster, which calls for

something drastic, like this. After 212 miles, but will be make it home

for eight? We have made it, aided, 12 hours of pure politics. Happy

elections, everyone. Adam Fleming impersonating Jack

Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our studio, welcome back. The Greens

used to be the upcoming party in Britain, now it is UKIP. What went

wrong? We are in a very good place, looking towards travelling our MEPs

and we could be the fourth largest group in Parliament after these

elections. More and more people are recognising we are the only party

calling for real change, the only party saying we have two stop making

poor, disadvantaged young people over the mistakes bankers. You have

made a strong pro-environment stands synonymous with the politics of the

left, why have you done that? Why should an equal minded Conservative

vote for you? I think one of the reasons why many Conservatives, I

met them in Chester where they are stopping coalbed methane

exploration, lots of Conservatives are looking to vote for us beyond

issues like fracking and the Green belt, and many of them are concerned

about the fact we haven't reformed the banks. This morning we had the

Bank of England chief coming out and saying we have a huge house price

bubble and people recognise that many of the parties offering the

same are not working. And yet the polls show that the hardline

greenery is not winning. We are looking to travel our number of MEPs

and we have people recognising that we have to change the way our

economic 's, politics and society works so that everyone has

sufficient resources within the limits of the one planet because one

planet is all we have got. You want all electricity to be generated by

renewables, is that right? So where would the electricity come from on

days when the wind is not blowing? Most of the electricity is there. It

is mature. We need to be hooked into a European wide grid, we need a

smart grid that will allow for demand to be adjusted according to

supply. So we would take French nuclear power, would we? We need to

work with a partnership across Europe. We are being left behind and

we are losing opportunities. 50% of German renewable electricity is

owned by communities and it stays within communities, rather than the

big six energy companies. So you have still got to take the French

nuclear power. What we need to do... Nuclear is a dead technology,

going down in the developed world. At the moment the Government

proposes the most expensive proposal for Britain and yet the last two

plans took 17 years to bring online, way too slow for what we need now.

We know what the Green council would be like if you were to win more

seats on Thursday because you run Brighton. Your own Green MP joined

strikers against the council, the local Greens are at each other's

throats, a council ridden with factionalism, attempts to raise

council tax to 5%, attempted coups against the local Green leader by

other Greens and you have had to bring in mediators. If you look at

the life of people in Brighton and Hove, it has seen its visitor

numbers go up by 50,000, it has become the top seaside resort in

Britain, we have seen GCSE results going up significantly. These are

the things affecting people's lives in Brighton and Hove. 60% of

Brighton and Hove people think life is better and the Greens. We have a

debate to be had from next is better and the Greens. We have a

election and perhaps we can have that debate next

election and perhaps we can have up Brighton as the way the city

should be run? We have made huge progress, we have found money to be

brought into the city to improve Green spaces. I was on the big ride

in London yesterday, and we need to change our roads so they worked the

people as well as cars. Which side of the picket line were you on in

Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was in London, travelling around as I do

most days. From Penzance to Newcastle and many areas in between.

Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm joined now by the Conservative MP,

the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and Sajid Javid. We want to see a

European Union resolutely focused on the single market, free trade, and

only we can bring about that change. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with

the status quo, in fact they would like more integration, and a UKIP

party can not deliver the change. Hilary Benn, at this stage positions

usually romp home in European elections and no party has gone on

to form a government without winning the European elections first. Now it

suggests you could become second, you haven't handled UKIP very well

either. There is a lot of alienation from politics around, globalisation

has left some behind and people are concerned about that but UKIP will

not provide the answer. Nigel Farage only talks about Europe. We are to

hear it would not be in the interests of British people to come

out of Europe. We do want a season change in Europe, for example we

want longer periods when new member states come in. We don't think child

tax credits should be paid to children not living in the UK, but

Nigel Farage is also proposing to charge us when we see the GP, to

halve maternity pay, and he wants a flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to

the problems we face and we will continue to campaign as we have done

to show that we are putting forward policies on energy prices, and in

the end that is what people will look for. Simon Hughes, you will be

lucky to come forth. The voters decide these things. Really? I never

knew that. My response to the UKIP question is that they get support

because they have never been in power, they are never likely. A bit

like the way you used to never get into power. I accept that, but now

we are in government. The reality is that laws made in Brussels, we make

together by agreement, and it is the case from the Commons figures that

only seven out of 100 laws are made in Brussels. Actually they have been

shown not to be the only ones. 14 out of 100. If we were to come out

of Europe, we would seriously disadvantage our economics and the

jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the European Union. If the Conservatives

comes third or even a poor second, it will show that people don't

really trust your promise about European referendum. They have been

there before, they don't trust you. What we have already shown, despite

being in coalition with Liberal Democrats, we have shown progress on

Europe, we have vetoed a European treaty when people said we

wouldn't, we have cut the European budget which is something Liberal

Democrats and Labour MEPs voted against, we cut it by ?8 billion.

But overall we are still paying more. We have still cut it. We have

taken Britain out of the bailout fund that Labour signed us up to. We

are now going to take that same energy to Europe and renegotiate our

relationship and let the British people decide in a referendum. Why

has Ed Miliband become such a liability for your party? Even your

own MPs are speaking out against him. If you look at the polls, we

have been in the lead almost consistently. The voters will

decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man, but what really marks him out is

that he is thinking about the problems the country faces. Simon

and Sajid both support the bedroom tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband

said the energy market doesn't work for consumers, we will freeze energy

prices while we change the system. So why are his ratings even lower

than Nick Clegg's? They will be voted for next year in the general

election, and if I were David Cameron I would ask myself this

question - the economy is recovering, why is it that David

Cameron and the Conservatives have been behind in the polls? Because in

the end the big choice in British politics is between the two parties

that say, if we sought the deficit everything is fine, and Labour who

say that there are things about this country, the insecurity that has

given rise for support for UKIP, and we are the ones talking about doing

something about zero hours contracts. The more your leader

bangs on about Europe, the worse your poll ratings get. He is out of

the kilter with British people. It may not be a majority of people who

think that we ought to stay in the European Union, but when you speak

to people about it, people understand that we are better in

them out. In the elections on Thursday, that is not about who runs

Britain, that is for next year. In terms of the local councils, we have

battles on the ground, like in my community, where we are trying to

take it back from the Labour Party. Affordable housing has just not been

delivered. We have delivered that in office and we had admitted to that.

-- we are committed to that. Labour have actually demolished homes. So,

people want more affordable homes. One issue which is behind people's

antipathy towards immigrants is that they cannot get the affordable

housing they need. We as a government have delivered more

affordable housing in this Parliament -170,000 new properties

earning and more, over the next three years. That does not work out

that very many per year. Overall housing is a lot less than it was in

2006. Let me tell you, under the Labour government, we lost nearly

half a million affordable homes. Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher

or under the coalition. What is your last ditch message to the millions

of Tory voters thinking of voting UKIP on Thursday? First, what I

would say is, Ed Miliband also said that we should not tackle the

deficit, it was not a priority. As a result of our resolute focus, we now

have the fastest growing economy in the developed world, and more people

employed than ever before. I am sure you will have more chance to say

that at the general election, what is the answer to my question? We

need a Europe which is focused on free trade and the single market.

Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, we are not. We are

the only party which can bring about change, UKIP cannot bring about any

change. Hilary Benn, why not have a referendum on Europe? If you think

like Nigel Farage that you should get out of Europe, I do not agree

with him, because Britain's future lies in Europe. My message simply

would be, vote for a party which wants to tackle insecurity in the

workplace, to give more security to the 9 million people who are now

privately renting, build more homes. What Simon has just said about the

coalition's housing record, it has been appalling, the lowest level

since Stanley Baldwin was Prime Minister. With Labour, you have got

a party which will freeze energy prices, more childcare, policies

which directly address the problems which people face. I think the

public will realise that. UKIP offers absolutely nothing at all for

the future of the country. You used to be in favour of a referendum? We

are in favour, we voted for one, we have legislated for one. The next

time there is a change between Britain and Europe, in the

relationship, there will be a referendum. We have supported that.

We voted for it. You would obviously want to vote yes in any referendum.

We would. But if you had one now, it would be for coming out or staying

in, and you are going to wait until there is another step son shall

transfer of powers to Brussels, and then say to people, either vote for

this substantial transfer or vote to leave! Of course they will vote to

leave! Yes, we are not natural partners with the Conservatives, but

we do not want to be distracted at the moment by a referendum in the

future in relation to Europe. Because what we have done is built

our own economy back. That has been the priority. We do not want

artificial priorities. The Tories want an artificial date plucked out

of the air for their own advantage. We say, let's get on with being

positive about being in Europe, and many people on the doorstep

absolutely understand that. Yesterday, the Energy Minister said

that he thought the party would be willing to campaign for a British

withdrawal from the EU if there was not a successful negotiation, a

successful repatriation, do you agree with that? First of all, I am

very optimistic... I got that I am going into these negotiations with

confidence but Michael Fallon is one of your ministerial colleagues, he

said that if we cannot get a deal on substantial repatriation, then the

party should be willing to campaign for a British withdrawal - do you

agree? My view is that I am confident we will get a deal, and

then we will put it to the British people. But you will have to take a

line. If you do not get substantial repatriations, will you side with

Michael Fallon all with the Prime Minister, who seems to want to stay

in regardless? I may only have been in politics for four years, but I am

not going to ask that kind of hypothetical question. Every

question I ask is hypothetical, that is the fascination of the programme!

I go into these negotiations with complete confidence. If you look at

our track record, it suggests we will be successful. Hilary Benn,

what is the difference between your attitude and that of the Lib Dems

towards a referendum? We have been very clear that if it is proposed at

sometime in the future, further powers would be transferred, then,

we would put that to the British people in a referendum. That is the

Lib Dem position. This is our position, which I am planing to you.

It would be an in-out referendum. We would only agree to a transfer of

powers if we thought that it was in the interest of Britain. But we

believe that Britain's place remains and should remain in Europe, for

economic reasons. But we also want to see some changes in our

relationship with Europe, and electing Labour MEPs on Thursday

will be a way of boosting that argument. In what way is everything

you have just said not entirely sell my must with the Lib Dem position? I

am not worried about that. -- entirely synonymous. It is the

dividing line between us and UKIP, because they somehow believe that

Britain leaving the European Union would be good for our economy. Truth

is, it would be really bad, because so many jobs depend on being part of

a large market in an increasingly globalised world. I have got one

more question for you on the locals. We seem to have lost our connection

with Leeds. What is the single most important reason that people should

vote for you in the local election? Because taxpayers' money is just

that, it does not belong to the politicians, and we can do a lot

more and get more for less with taxpayers money. If you look at

Conservative councils up and down the country, most of them have not

been raising council tax, they have been getting more for less, and that

is what people deserve. We will produce the maximum amount possible

of affordable housing to meet the housing needs of Britain, instead of

the richest minority having flats and houses that nobody can afford.

We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I can answer for him. I will do it -

he would certainly say, vote Labour. You are watching The Sunday

Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who now leave us for

Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up in Scotland, who now leave us for

Hello and welcome to the University of Bedfordshire's Luton campus,

where these European candidates will answer questions from our audience

about the EU and its influence on our lives. For Labour, we have

Richard Howitt, a long`standing MEP. For the UK Independence Party,

Patrick O'Flynn, who's the former political editor of the Daily

Express. For the Conservatives, MEP Vicky Ford. She is the spokesman on

the European Industry and Research Committee. The Green Party candidate

is Dr Rupert Read, a lecturer at the University of East Anglia. And for

the Lib Dems, MEP Andrew Duff, a committed federalist and respected

author of many books and pamphlets on the EU. All five of them the

leading candidates for their parties. Ladies and gentlemen, our

panel. APPLAUSE

. Our first question is from John

Scully. If we were to leave Europe, what

will remain of our credibility with regard to future commerce?

First of all I see myself as an English and British candidate in

this election and I believe our relationship with Europe must change

but it must be a change that suits British businesses and local

businesses and British jobs. A lot of people say to me that we voted to

go into a common market but not a federal Europe, we want to see

powers come back to Britain, we want a negotiation that works for

business as well. This is a complex negotiation, but it is change that

we need and then we want to put that to you in a referendum and give you

a choice, so you will then see the decision on in and out but after we

have delivered AB negotiation. Richard Howitt. She did not answer

the question, there are 336,000 jobs and the east of England dependent

upon our membership of the European Union, the Bex `` the business

organisation of Britain, the CBI, says that families are thousands of

pounds better off because of our trade within the EU. The Nissan

plant created thousands of jobs. Some jobs could be lost to forward

elsewhere in the country. The bosses of those companies have said that if

Britain was to leave the European Union, they would leave Britain and

that is why David Cameron and UKIP are playing a dangerous game in

sleepwalking this country into an exit from Europe. What Richard said

was correct but I would add to further things. We must remember

that the European Union has kept the peace amongst its member states for

65 years, that is an extraordinary achievement. We must remember that

most of our good environmental legislation comes from the EU, I am

talking about our rivers and beaches being clean and not covered in

sewage, that was of it was in the 1970s before we joined the EU. It is

not enough to talk about the trade benefits which are important, two

other important points, the EU is undoubtedly a good thing, it needs

reform but on balance it is better being in than out. Patrick O'Flynn.

I will begin on a pedantic note. Norman is talking about leaving

Europe, geographical and that is impossible, we are talking about

withdrawing from a federal superstate. Talking about the CBI,

the most respected head and former head of the CBI is Digby Jones and

he has said that Britain would have a trade deal in place 24 hours after

leaving the EU because the German manufacturing sector would assist

upon it and he is correct about that because yes, Europe an important

market, it is important for our exports and it is not membership of

you that those jobs depend upon, it is the ability to export. We are the

biggest market in the world for the eurozone, bigger than China or

America or any other country. We explored about ?100 million worth of

goods each year, we import about 150 million, so they can trade without

being a member of a political union and there is absolutely no doubt

about that, we would also have the benefit of being able to sing our

own trade deals with the faster growing countries of the

Commonwealth. Andrew Duff. Can I say how nice it is to see Patrick and

the region, this is your first trip here I believe. I have made many

public meetings, have you? Let us move on, thank you. Regarding trade,

it would be severely damaged if we were to leave. Employment is

imperilled and you do not have to believe us, speak to the CBI, the

Federation of Small Businesses and so forth, but the idea that the

union is static that it is some sort of monolithic thing stuck in the

past, I think it actually has to be addressed. It is changing all of the

time. It is expanding the strength of the single market and indeed the

size of that single market, and, of course, at present it has embarked

upon a hugely important trade negotiation with the USA, which is

of huge advantage to our economy. Trade apparently has been falling

within the EU. Look at this 2013 statistics. It was 42% back in 2008.

How worried are you at the prospects, John Scully? I am quite

worried because I do not want Britain to be cut adrift of Europe

with regard to trade. As Ruppert mentioned, things that have been put

in place as regards the policy and Green Party policy, it is important

that if we stay within Europe that we are fully present as a pause to

partially present. Let's take our next question, from

Anca Tinica, a Romanian student. My question would be ` why Romanians

and Bulgarians are blamed for coming to work in the UK if we have this

right in the EU, and what can be done to change this negative

perception? Thank you for that question.

Firstly, Patrick O'Flynn. No one should blame Romanians or Bulgarians

for coming to Britain, they have the right to do so under our current

arrangements, the point is, is it in our interest to have an open door

immigration system with two dozen neighbouring countries and over 400

million people, UKIP says it is not and all of the polls suggest that

the public agree with us that it is not a good idea. What would help in

terms of giving immigration a good name in this country again is a

proper work permit system with a British National Party to rest could

be the thing where we judge who comes into our country, whether they

have high skills or are filling the gap in skills and they comply to our

core values. If we have a system like that which we can only do

outside of the U, I believe race relations will improve remarkably.

But these people have a right to be here. That is correct. What about

the negative perception, turning that around? The negative

perceptions will not turn around whilst we have is open door and

there is pressure on social housing. Pressure on transport. But as your

leader doing enough to dispel those negative perceptions? It is his job

to make them less bad! Why did your leaders say the other day that

people have a right to be concerned if Romanians moved next door to

them? You were there, you tried to stop him seeing that. I ought to be

able to answer. Hang on, I should be able to answer. There are

differential figures and Romania has been susceptible to organised crime

on a high level, it is true in this this this ticks. Rupert Read, could

you answer that question. It is a great question and I am concerned

about it. If anyone said that people have a concern about Dewes or Irish

people or black people living next door, everyone would condemn that

statement. Patrick O'Flynn knows that is incorrect. He tried to stop

Nigel Farage from seeing that. That is absolutely not true. You tried to

stop the interview. The interview was running overtime. You tried to

stop the interview, admit it. Gentlemen, let us get back to the

question. Thank you both for the moment. Vicky Ford, please answer.

The whole issue of immigration has complicated and we went through a

period under the Labour government where it was very uncontrolled and

the Labour government have admitted that and that means that in certain

parts of the east of England we have seen very significant migration and

very significant pressures on local services. In other areas, we also

have world`class scientist, world`class research, people from

all over the world are coming together and making a huge

difference and discovering new Cure 's for diseases, new ways to live

and ways of solving the energy problems. We must make sure we stay

part of that global community, but at the same time control the impact

of immigration. I believe that we must have controls upon immigration,

we have put some in place already and have started to make sure that

you cannot come only for benefits so that people cannot get this

misperception that people only come here for benefits, close those doors

and reform so that you cannot have another new country entering without

changes on the freedom of movement and restrictions and then we will be

able to move former `` forward calmly. Freedom of movement of

people within the single market is a very key and precious principle. It

defines us as Europeans that we can move and live abroad and the

European Union. Millions of Brits have decided to opt for that. The

second point, employers in the east of England are crying out to employ

Bulgarians, Romanians, people from Poland and so forth. There is a

shortage of labour supply in this region and as the economic recovery

starts to boom, which I hope it will and I expect it will, the problem of

the labour supply will be even more acute. Very briefly, please. With

respect to Dr Rupert Read, I do not believe that Nigel Farage was being

xenophobic, I think he was being racist and marching to the beat of

the nationalist drum, that is a disgrace. There has never been open

door immigration, this is simply said to make people feel fearful.

The Labour Party believes in controlled immigration and we will

put controls when they get back into government. I am sorry about the

negative perception, I am a patriotic man and we have always

given a warm welcome and courteous welcome to people that visit us and

the embarrassment for UKIP is that they put out leaflets saying that 29

million Bulgarians and Romanians would come to Britain. One estimate

that there were only 30 people, another said they are even fewer now

than there were in January! The shame is regarding UKIP as a party

and the fact that one of their members resigned last week and said

they were being deliberately racist. The Labour Party believes that if

you are fair to everyone, and stop people being brought in to undercut

the jobs and wages, that is in the interest of everyone. We will move

on. We want to talk about farming. Our next question is from William

Dickinson. In the East of England we farm some

of the UK's most productive farmland, but thanks to decisions

taken in Brussels, we're losing tools in our armoury to deal with

crop pests and diseases. What will you do, in the next European

Parliament, to help ensure decisions taken in Europe are based on sound

science, with policies that promote rather than preclude innovation in

food and farming? William is asking about sound

science and better protection for our farmers and their interests.

Richard Howitt, let us start with you. I have backed the technology

Centre in Cambridge with European funding that has created the Glass

that is helping small farmers in the region. I believe the common

agricultural policy reform should have gone further and I have backed

our farmers in this region in terms of getting a fair price for their

mocks at supermarkets. And making sure that they get payments back to

them that with `` that were withdrawn on a European level. But

we should also make sure there is greater help for environmental

stewardship. We must also talk about the quality of food. After the horse

meat scandal when the Tories prevented us from giving honest

labelling where the source of our meat comes from, we would have to

overcome that and make it and the interest of British farmers. 5.7

million loaves of bread are produced in the East, two thirds of sugar

beet and one third of UK potatoes. What can we do to protect farmers? I

want Britain to be in control of agricultural standards, pesticides

and regulations. That is the number one think that UKIP can offer. What

we also have is that we have trapped subsidising inefficient farmers who

farm on a smaller scale in many European countries, so we are in the

absorbed condition where we can support our own farmers more and

still reduce food prices for British consumers and that we can do outside

of the Common Agricultural Policy and outside of the European Union

and that is the number`1 issue with agriculture and food in this

country, we'll Richard goes on about food banks where the Common

Agricultural Policy is not helping. Farmers tend to grumble. I think we

have fantastic farming and the east of England, which is competitive and

always pushing the advances of science. I certainly think that we

must follow the signs `` the silence as you have proposed, but we have to

experiment because science means experiment and rear experimenting at

present with the bands upon pesticides near lakes which

encourage biodiversity. I would've peeled to our agricultural comment

unity to play their part and to support the fantastic research and

development that we have in the east of England. Vicky Ford. The east of

England as the breadbasket of the country and we also have some world

leading scientists. We must listen to those scientists because they are

doing fantastic work in terms of overcoming drought and disease and

that is what will help us to feed the world's growing population and

with the growing food prices. Before we rush into some sort of a ban in

Europe on the latest chemical solution which the Green Party and

the Labour Party tend to do, we must listen to the voice of science and

to work with scientists to make sure that people understand what is being

used. A like Fried potato, which means you do not need to spray your

crops 50 times are here, what could be wrong with that? We must look at

each individual crop and decide what we want and which ones we do not and

that's how we will the world. And the Green Party we are all in favour

of sound science and that is why be back climate science. Unlike the

Tories. Sound science does not mean backing genetically modified crops

and it does not mean taking the gene from a fish and sticking it into a

tomato recklessly, it does not mean throwing more pesticides and

herbicides onto the land. We must build an agricultural policy fit for

the 21st`century that will reduce the amount of artificial inputs and

move us towards a system of improved aggro forestry and systems that will

work in the long term. William Dickinson, what are your own

concerns? From my point of view, the scary thing is that if we cannot

produce food in this country that we will import it and most other

countries in the world are using new crop technologies and the public

will be exposed to reading that new technology, will we in Europe and

build a wall around the farmers telling them that they cannot use

it. Time for one more question. We are short of time.

Our next question is from Bronwen Philpott.

A lot of the employment legislation that has a big impact due to cost

and complexity on small and medium`sized businesses when they

employ people is from the EU. What is your view on that? Very brief

comment on red tape, Andrew Duff. I would agree that sometimes

employment law from Brussels or from Whitehall which is just as bad can

be very intrusive and can be a burden for industry, both small and

big. It is essential that as we go forward into the next phase of

reform of the European Union that we are tougher on the bigger things and

smaller on the smaller things. Richard Howitt. Everyone appears to

be against red tape but people must look at the health and safety, think

about that tragedy locally where people died. People will ask why

were health and safety not better put into place. One in five workers

in the east of England feel insecure in the workplace and we must get rid

of those zero`hour contracts and make sure that the minimum wage is

properly enforced. Rupert Read. The level playing field is not present.

It must be more friendly to smaller businesses. We believe that small is

beautiful. Rolling back the red tape is critical for small businesses. We

have identified the ten most burdensome and I want to unwind that

red tape but sadly the Green Party and the Labour Party are blocking is

doing that and Europe. Patrick O'Flynn, finally. The European Union

as the club of big business. Some of that big business is like red tape

because they can't afford the compliance teams and the lobbyists,

we must get out of this feeling organisation and get back to having

our enterprising spirit and bring jobs back to the UK. Bronwen

Philpott, what do you think? My concern is that a lot of small

companies particularly in terms of maternity, the impact upon small

businesses as salt important. We are sadly out of time. Thank you Thanks

to all of you and, of course, there are some other parties fighting

these European elections in the Eastern region.

Here they are on screen now. We are back next Sunday morning and we will

have all of the results from the local elections. We will see you

then. APPLAUSE

thank you very much indeed. Back to Andrew.

Welcome back. Politicians always insist in public that opinion polls

do not matter. Even though their own parties each spend a small fortune

on private polling. If they take them seriously, so do we! Let's take

a closer look. First up, how the votes might fall for the European

Parliament. Back in January, Labour looked set to finish first. By

April, UKIP had edged into the lead. According to today's poles, Nigel

Farage's party is either down into place, or has soared ahead. Both

cannot be right. It is a similar picture for the general election.

Labour's lead has been cut back by the Tories. This is the most

unpredictable general election in a long time. It keeps us in a job! We

are joined now by the managing director of the pollsters, ComRes.

Welcome to the programme. While the polls all over the place on the

European election? We are trying to do two things, figure out who is

going to be voting, and how they are going to be voting. I think a lot of

the polls are predicting quite high turnout. They are looking at more

than 50% turnout, which is simply not can be the case. So, what we are

than 50% turnout, which is simply those who are ten out of ten,

certain to vote, and it really benefits UKIP, it benefits them

democratically, demographically, with the older age profile, who are

going to vote. Another poll gives them only a one-point lead, so, come

the results coming out, you are either going to look away ahead of

your time or very stupid? Absolutely. That is the job of

pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong. Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009,

and we are hoping to be spot on on Thursday. So you were spot on on

voting intention in 2009? Yes. What does the indications of what is now

a four party system mean, does it change the nature of your methods?

It changes how we look at the polls, how we look at what is going to

happen as a result of the vote. Predicting the number of seats is

becoming more and more important and more difficult to do, because

distribution is becoming fundamentally important. Because it

is for parties? That's right. . Does the polling give us any evidence to

try to settle the matter of whether UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We

know that over 50% of the UKIP vote share is coming from the

Conservatives come people who did vote Conservative in 2010. But

actually, the other 50% is coming from a wide range of different

sources. And what we are seeing is that ultimately, every single

establishment party should be worried, because the people voting

for UKIP are the people that really do not like politics at the moment.

They are wanting people to speak on their behalf, so it affects all of

them. There is evidence that there is now a move of some working-class

Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's right. That is what I mean about the

establishment vote, the people that they can really reach out to, who

are really interested in things like immigration, in those single issues,

where they do not feel the political parties of the mainstream are

representing them. I would suggest that for the European elections,

where turnout is low, ComRes may be right or wrong, but likely to vote

would seem to be the yardstick. I would say that is true in almost any

European election apart from this one. Because there has been so much

attention on this election, because of UKIP and the probably do that

they will win second, I wonder whether it is now such a big topic

of conversation, the subject of Nigel Farage, that people who would

otherwise talk a good game about voting UKIP but do not show up on

the day are this time around likely to show up on the day? I am not

entirely convinced by that. We underestimate how many people are

completely disengaged by politics. I think it is very easy for us to

think, and I agree that by any other standards, this is the most coverage

a European election has ever had in Britain, but still, most people

don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you would think, if you are a UKIP

photo, if you have made that choice, then you would probably be more

motivated to go and vote on Thursday? I am sure that is right.

Also, the publicity that Nigel Farage has had. And also, as

Catherine says, people are attracted to UKIP because they are annoyed

with the established parties. If you have made that big decision to do

it, then you will probably do it. The really big question which we

want to take out of these elections is, how many people who have left

the established parties, left the Conservative Party, in these

elections on Thursday, how many of them will stick with UKIP and how

many of them will go back? Nigel Farage is very confident, he is

saying that 60% of those certain to vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If

that happens, it is a real problem for Downing Street. Downing Street

are basically saying that many Tories will have a fling with UKIP

but they will return to the marital home next year. You do two sorts of

polling, for the European elections, and for the general election, which

may be more relevant to the local election voters, but what is the

answer to his question? We do not know at the moment. We when you ask

people how likely they are to vote in the same way, they are thinking

that actually, I am going to vote in exactly the same way at the general

election, they are not going to say, I am going to split my vote. I think

the key point is, what happens in the Euros. We have a fixed term

parliament, which means momentum is crucial. What comes out of the Euros

will be a statement about how well UKIP can last for the next year, or

indeed, if it comes second, it is about momentum and feeling about the

parties. I do not think we can tell yet. If UKIP does well, there could

be some leadership crises we will have to cover. I want to look at a

couple of the headlines on the screen. Now, it seems, as you can

see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could be in some trouble. The Labour MP

for Rochdale talking about the mantra of misery which is Labour's

policy is not going down well. And there are also rumbles about, if Mr

Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in the European elections, that there

will be a plot to remove him. There are not many names behind that plot

yet, but Vince Cable does get an honourable mention! Not that he is

plotting, but he could take over! If Labour comes a poor second, and the

Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is nowhere, there is a

Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't there? It will be very different for

each man. The worst thing that could happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg

loses his job, because he will be replaced by somebody substantially

to the left of him, you would have to assume, someone like Tim Farron.

I think it is unlikely that David Laws Danny Alexander, the two

prominent figures who are to the right of him, would win the

leadership. If it is someone who is quite a way to the left of Nick

Clegg, then some voters might find the party a more attractive

proposition. Which is why the Tories want to hold on to Nick Clegg.

Absolutely. But I think you are right, there is a really big bubble

for Ed Miliband here. The second big thing, I do not know if you saw the

photo opportunity this week, Boris Johnson strolling through a garden

with David Cameron, they got off the chew one-stop early just to

appreciate the spring sunshine. But where are the shadow cabinet? I hear

rumours of a politician called Yvette Cooper, but I do not know

what she has been up to recently. And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham,

all of these big hitters are not lashing themselves to the mast of

the Labour election campaign. And some of these big hitters are

immensely talented, Rachel Reeves, Chuka Umunna, these guys are really

talented. You get the impression that they are watching this as you

say and biding their time. Ed Miliband has bet the farm on this

calculation that there has been this rupture between the rise in wages

and the rise in inflation, although that is now beginning to slow. The

calculation he is making is that in the 2012 presidential election, Mitt

Romney was ahead on many of the economic indicators, but Barack

Obama won because he said, I am on your side. He has bet the farm on

that. But there is a big difference between Miliband and Barack Obama,

which is that Barack Obama was elected in 2008 after the crash, so

everything he did was about rescue. The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed

Balls is that they were in power when the crash happened, so it is

difficult to make that comparison. Labour is nip and tuck with the

Tories, or ahead by a small amount - Mr Miliband's personal ratings are

much worse than what David Cameron's were at the same stage in

the political cycle, does that matter? I think personal ratings do

matter, particularly if things like Ukraine gained more prominence in

the media. It is a question of who you want as your statesman. But on

the economy specifically, actually, the economic ratings in terms of

confidence in the leader has not changed. That has not changed for

years now. It is pretty stable. Actually, the narrowing of the polls

could be due to the usual narrowing about 12 months out from the

election, and Labour really need to use the momentum. Thank you for

that. Plenty to talk about after you all go to the polls on Thursday.

There will be tonnes of election coverage and results on the BBC,

Thursday night, Friday, and of course, Sunday night, when the

European results come out. Daily Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow

lunchtime. I will be back here next Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for

The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is The Sunday