Browse content similar to 22/06/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Welfare reform is one of the government's most popular policies. | :00:37. | :00:43. | |
So Labour says it would be even tougher than the Tories. | :00:44. | :00:46. | |
We'll be asking the Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary if she's got | :00:47. | :00:50. | |
Even Labour supporters worry that Ed Miliband hasn't got what it takes | :00:51. | :00:56. | |
Labour grandees are increasingly vocal about their concerns. | :00:57. | :01:01. | |
Over 50% of Labour voters think they'd do better with a new leader. | :01:02. | :01:12. | |
And in the east, a shortage apparently "toxic" on the doorstep. | :01:13. | :01:28. | |
And in the east, a shortage of GPs leaving thousands | :01:29. | :01:28. | |
promised an electric car revolution, why so little progress? | :01:29. | :01:40. | |
Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh, the toxic tweeters | :01:41. | :01:47. | |
First, the deepening crisis in Iraq, where Sunni Islamists are now | :01:48. | :01:55. | |
largely in control of the Syrian-Iraq border, which means | :01:56. | :01:58. | |
they can now re-supply their forces in Iraq from their Syrian bases. | :01:59. | :02:04. | |
Rather than moving on Baghdad, they are for the moment consolidating | :02:05. | :02:07. | |
their grip on the towns and cities they've already taken. | :02:08. | :02:09. | |
They also seem to be in effective control of Iraq's | :02:10. | :02:11. | |
biggest oil refinery, which supplies the capital. | :02:12. | :02:15. | |
And there are reports they might now have taken the power | :02:16. | :02:18. | |
Iraqi politicians are now admitting that ISIS, | :02:19. | :02:24. | |
the name of the Sunni insurgents, is better trained, better equipped and | :02:25. | :02:27. | |
far more battle-hardened than the US-trained Iraqi army fighting it. | :02:28. | :02:33. | |
Which leaves the fate of Baghdad increasingly in the hands | :02:34. | :02:35. | |
No good news coming out of there, Janan. No good news and no good | :02:36. | :02:53. | |
options either. The West's best strategy is to decide how much | :02:54. | :02:57. | |
support to give to the Iraqi government. The US is sending over | :02:58. | :03:02. | |
about 275 military personnel. Do they go further and contemplate | :03:03. | :03:05. | |
their support? General Petraeus argued against it as it might be | :03:06. | :03:12. | |
seen as the US serving as the force of Shia Iraqis -- continue their | :03:13. | :03:17. | |
support. Do we contemplate breaking up Iraq? It won't be easy. The Sunni | :03:18. | :03:22. | |
and Shia Muslim populations don t and Shia Muslim populations don't | :03:23. | :03:28. | |
live in clearly bordered areas, but in the longer term, do we deal with | :03:29. | :03:32. | |
it in the same way we dealt with the break-up of the Ottoman empire over | :03:33. | :03:37. | |
100 years ago? In the short-term and long-term, completely confounding. | :03:38. | :03:42. | |
Quite humiliating. If ISIS take Baghdad I can't think of a bigger | :03:43. | :03:47. | |
ignominy for foreign policy since Suez. If Iraq is partitioned, it | :03:48. | :03:53. | |
won't be up to us. It will be what is happening because of what is | :03:54. | :03:59. | |
happening on the ground. Everything does point to partition, and that | :04:00. | :04:04. | |
border, which ISIS control, between Syria and Iraq, that has been there | :04:05. | :04:09. | |
since it was drawn during the First World War. That is gone as well. An | :04:10. | :04:14. | |
astonishingly humbling situation the West, and you can see the Kurds in | :04:15. | :04:20. | |
the North think this is a charge -- chance for authority. They think | :04:21. | :04:26. | |
this is the chance to get the autonomy they felt they deserved a | :04:27. | :04:31. | |
long time. Janan is right. We can't do much in the long term, but we | :04:32. | :04:35. | |
have to decide on the engagement. And the other people wish you'd be | :04:36. | :04:39. | |
talking turkey, because if there is some blowback and the fighters come | :04:40. | :04:42. | |
back, they are likely to come back from Turkey. Where is Iran in all of | :04:43. | :04:47. | |
this? There were reports last week that the Revolutionary guard, the | :04:48. | :04:51. | |
head of it, he was already in Baghdad with 67 advisers and there | :04:52. | :04:56. | |
might have been some brigades that have gone there as well. Where are | :04:57. | :05:01. | |
they? What has happened? I'm pretty sure the Prime Minister of Iraq is | :05:02. | :05:06. | |
putting more faith in Iran than the White House and the British. I think | :05:07. | :05:16. | |
they are running the show, in technical terms. John Kerry is | :05:17. | :05:20. | |
flying into Cairo this morning, and what is his message? It is twofold. | :05:21. | :05:25. | |
One is to Arab countries, do more to encourage an inclusive government in | :05:26. | :05:30. | |
Iraq, mainly Sunni Muslims in the government, and the Arab Gulf states | :05:31. | :05:33. | |
should stop funding insurgents in Iraq. You think, Iraq, it's | :05:34. | :05:38. | |
potentially going to break up, so this sounds a bit late in the day | :05:39. | :05:44. | |
and a bit weak. It gets fundamentally to the problem, what | :05:45. | :05:47. | |
can we do? Niall Ferguson has a big piece in the Sunday Times asking if | :05:48. | :05:51. | |
this is place where we cannot doing anything. He doesn't want to do | :05:52. | :05:56. | |
anything. By the way, that is what most Americans think. That is what | :05:57. | :06:01. | |
opinion polls are showing. You have George Osborne Michael Gold who | :06:02. | :06:05. | |
would love to get involved but they cannot because of the vote in | :06:06. | :06:09. | |
parliament on Syria lasted -- George Osborne and Michael Gove. This | :06:10. | :06:12. | |
government does not have the stomach for military intervention. We will | :06:13. | :06:15. | |
see how events unfold on the ground. All parties are agreed that | :06:16. | :06:19. | |
Britain's 60-year old multi-billion The Tory side of the Coalition think | :06:20. | :06:21. | |
their reforms are necessary and popular, though they haven't | :06:22. | :06:26. | |
always gone to time or to plan. In the eight months she's had since | :06:27. | :06:29. | |
she became Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, Rachel Reeves | :06:30. | :06:33. | |
has talked the talk about getting people off benefits, into work and | :06:34. | :06:40. | |
lowering the overall welfare bill. her first interview | :06:41. | :06:43. | |
in the job she threatened "We would But Labour has opposed just | :06:44. | :06:45. | |
about every change the Coalition has proposed to cut the cost | :06:46. | :06:49. | |
and change the culture of welfare. Child benefit, housing benefit, | :06:50. | :06:54. | |
the ?26,000 benefit cap - They've been lukewarm about | :06:55. | :06:56. | |
the government's flagship Universal Credit scheme - which rolls six | :06:57. | :07:03. | |
benefit payments into one - and And Labour has set out only | :07:04. | :07:06. | |
two modest welfare cuts. This week, Labour said young people | :07:07. | :07:13. | |
must have skills or be in training That will save ?65 million, | :07:14. | :07:16. | |
says Labour, though the cost And cutting winter fuel payments | :07:17. | :07:22. | |
for richer pensioners which will Not a lot in a total welfare bill | :07:23. | :07:27. | |
of around ?200 billion. And with welfare cuts popular among | :07:28. | :07:35. | |
even Labour voters, they will soon have to start spelling out exactly | :07:36. | :07:38. | |
what Labour welfare reform means. Welcome. Good morning. Why do you | :07:39. | :07:54. | |
want to be tougher than the Tories? We want to be tough in getting the | :07:55. | :07:58. | |
welfare bill down. Under this government, the bill will be ?13 | :07:59. | :08:02. | |
million more than the government set out in 2010 and I don't think that | :08:03. | :08:06. | |
is acceptable. We should try to control the cost of Social Security. | :08:07. | :08:11. | |
But the welfare bill under the next Labour government will fall? It will | :08:12. | :08:15. | |
be smaller when you end the first parliament than when you started? We | :08:16. | :08:20. | |
signed up to the capping welfare but that doesn't see social security | :08:21. | :08:23. | |
costs ball, it sees them go up in line with with inflation or average | :08:24. | :08:29. | |
earnings -- costs fall. So where flair will rise? We have signed up | :08:30. | :08:34. | |
to the cap -- welfare will rise? We have signed up to the cap. We will | :08:35. | :08:39. | |
get the costs under control and they haven't managed to achieve it. The | :08:40. | :08:43. | |
government is spending ?13 billion more on Social Security and the | :08:44. | :08:46. | |
reason they are doing it is because the minimum wage has not kept pace | :08:47. | :08:51. | |
with the cost of living so people are reliant on tax credits. They are | :08:52. | :08:55. | |
not building houses and people are relying on housing benefit. We have | :08:56. | :08:58. | |
a record number of people on zero hours contracts. I'm still not clear | :08:59. | :09:05. | |
if you will cut welfare if you get in power. Nobody is saying that the | :09:06. | :09:09. | |
cost of welfare is going to fall. The welfare cap sees that happening | :09:10. | :09:17. | |
gradually. That is a Tory cap. And you've accepted it. You're being the | :09:18. | :09:21. | |
same as the Tories, not to. If they had a welfare cap, they would have | :09:22. | :09:29. | |
breached it in every year of the parliament. Social Security will be | :09:30. | :09:31. | |
higher than the government set out because they failed to control it. | :09:32. | :09:36. | |
You read the polls, and the party does lots of its own polling, and | :09:37. | :09:39. | |
you're scared of being seen as the welfare party. You don't really | :09:40. | :09:42. | |
believe all of this anti-welfare stuff? We are the party of work, not | :09:43. | :09:49. | |
welfare. The Labour Party was set up in the first place because we | :09:50. | :09:51. | |
believe in the dignity of work and we believe that work should pay | :09:52. | :09:55. | |
wages can afford to live on. I make no apologies for being the party of | :09:56. | :09:58. | |
work. We are not the welfare party, we are the party of work. Even your | :09:59. | :10:03. | |
confidential strategy document admits that voters don't trust you | :10:04. | :10:08. | |
on immigration, the economy, this is your own people, and welfare. You | :10:09. | :10:13. | |
are not trusted on it. The most recent poll showed Labour slightly | :10:14. | :10:16. | |
ahead of the Conservative Party on Social Security, probably because | :10:17. | :10:19. | |
they have seen the incompetence and chaos at the Department for Work and | :10:20. | :10:23. | |
Pensions under Iain Duncan Smith. Your own internal document means | :10:24. | :10:28. | |
that the voters don't trust you on welfare reform. That is why we have | :10:29. | :10:34. | |
shown some of this tough things we will do like the announcement that | :10:35. | :10:39. | |
Ed Miliband made earlier this week, that young people without basic | :10:40. | :10:42. | |
qualifications won't be entitled to just sign on for benefits, they have | :10:43. | :10:46. | |
to sign up for training in order to receive support. That is the right | :10:47. | :10:49. | |
thing to do by that group of young people, because they need skills to | :10:50. | :10:50. | |
progress. We will, once that. -- we progress. We will, once that. - we | :10:51. | :11:00. | |
will, onto that. You say you criticise the government that it had | :11:01. | :11:05. | |
a cap and wouldn't have met it, but every money-saving welfare reform, | :11:06. | :11:09. | |
you voted against it. How is that being tougher? The most recent bout | :11:10. | :11:16. | |
was the cap on overall welfare expenditure, and we went through the | :11:17. | :11:20. | |
lobbies and voted for the Tories. You voted against the benefit cap, | :11:21. | :11:25. | |
welfare rating, you voted against, child benefit schemes, you voted | :11:26. | :11:30. | |
against. You can't say we voted against everything when we voted | :11:31. | :11:32. | |
with the Conservatives in the most recent bill with a cap on Social | :11:33. | :11:37. | |
Security. It's just not correct to say. The last time we voted, we | :11:38. | :11:44. | |
walked through the lobby with them. You voted on the principle of the | :11:45. | :11:50. | |
cap. You voted on every step that would allow the cap to be met. Every | :11:51. | :11:55. | |
single one. The most recent vote was not on the principle of the cap it | :11:56. | :11:59. | |
was on a cap of Social Security in the next Parliament and we signed up | :12:00. | :12:02. | |
for that. It was Ed Miliband who called her that earlier on. Which | :12:03. | :12:04. | |
welfare reform did you vote for We welfare reform did you vote for? We | :12:05. | :12:11. | |
voted for the cap. Other than that? We have supported universal credit. | :12:12. | :12:15. | |
You voted against it in the third reading. We voted against some of | :12:16. | :12:20. | |
the specifics. If you look at universal credit, they have had to | :12:21. | :12:25. | |
write off nearly ?900 million of spending. I'm not on the rights and | :12:26. | :12:30. | |
wrongs, I'm trying to work out what you voted for. Some of the things we | :12:31. | :12:34. | |
are going to go further than the government with. For example, | :12:35. | :12:38. | |
cutting benefits for young people who don't sign of the training. The | :12:39. | :12:42. | |
government had introduced that. For example, saying that the richest | :12:43. | :12:45. | |
pensioners should not get the winter fuel allowance, that is something | :12:46. | :12:49. | |
the government haven't signed up. You would get that under Labour and | :12:50. | :12:52. | |
this government haven't signed up for it. ?100 million on the winter | :12:53. | :12:56. | |
fuel allowance and ?65 million on youth training. ?165 million. How | :12:57. | :13:03. | |
big is the welfare budget? The cap would apply to ?120 billion. And | :13:04. | :13:11. | |
you've saved 125 -- 165 million Those are cuts that we said we would | :13:12. | :13:15. | |
do in government. If you look at the real prize from the changes Ed | :13:16. | :13:19. | |
Miliband announced in the youth allowance, it's not the short-term | :13:20. | :13:23. | |
savings, it's the fact that each of these young people, who are | :13:24. | :13:26. | |
currently on unemployment benefits without the skills we know they need | :13:27. | :13:30. | |
to succeed in life, they will cost the taxpayer ?2000 per year. I will | :13:31. | :13:36. | |
come onto that. You mentioned universal credit, which the | :13:37. | :13:40. | |
government regards as the flagship reform. It's had lots of troubles | :13:41. | :13:44. | |
with it and it merges six benefits into one. You voted against it in | :13:45. | :13:50. | |
the third reading and given lukewarm support in the past. We have not | :13:51. | :13:54. | |
said he would abandon it, but now you say you are for it. You are all | :13:55. | :14:01. | |
over the place. We set up the rescue committee in autumn of last year | :14:02. | :14:03. | |
because we have seen from the National Audit Office and the Public | :14:04. | :14:08. | |
Accounts Committee, report after report showing that the project is | :14:09. | :14:13. | |
massively overbudget and is not going to be delivered according to | :14:14. | :14:16. | |
the government timetable. We set up the committee because we believe in | :14:17. | :14:19. | |
the principle of universal credit and think it is the right thing to | :14:20. | :14:23. | |
do. Can you tell us now if you will keep it or not? Because there is no | :14:24. | :14:28. | |
transparency and we have no idea. We are awash with information. We are | :14:29. | :14:34. | |
not. The government, in the most recent National audit Forest -- | :14:35. | :14:40. | |
National Audit Office statement said it was a reset project. This is | :14:41. | :14:44. | |
really important. This is a flagship government programme, and it's going | :14:45. | :14:50. | |
to cost ?12.8 billion to deliver, and we don't know what sort of state | :14:51. | :14:54. | |
it is in, so we have said that if we win at the next election, we will | :14:55. | :14:58. | |
pause that for three months and calling... Will you stop the pilots? | :14:59. | :15:05. | |
We don't know what status they will have. We would stop the build of the | :15:06. | :15:10. | |
system for three months, calling the National Audit Office to do awards | :15:11. | :15:14. | |
and all report. The government don't need to do this until the next | :15:15. | :15:20. | |
general election, they could do it today. Stop throwing good money | :15:21. | :15:23. | |
after bad and get a grip of this incredibly important programme. You | :15:24. | :15:28. | |
said you don't know enough to a view now. So when you were invited to a | :15:29. | :15:32. | |
job centre where universal credit is being rolled out to see how it was | :15:33. | :15:39. | |
working, you refused to go. Why We asked were a meeting with Iain | :15:40. | :15:41. | |
Duncan Smith and he cancelled the meeting is three times. I'm talking | :15:42. | :15:45. | |
about the visit when you were offered to go to a job centre and | :15:46. | :15:48. | |
you refused. We had an appointment to meet Iain Duncan Smith at the | :15:49. | :15:52. | |
Department for Work and Pensions and said he cancelled and was not | :15:53. | :15:56. | |
available, but he wanted us to go to the job centre. We wanted to talk to | :15:57. | :15:59. | |
him and his officials, which she did. Would it be more useful to go | :16:00. | :16:05. | |
to the job centre and find out how it was working. He's going to tell | :16:06. | :16:06. | |
you it's working fine. Advice Bureau in Hammersmith, they | :16:07. | :16:24. | |
are working to help the people trying to claim universal credit. | :16:25. | :16:30. | |
Iain Duncan Smith cancelled three meetings. That is another issue, | :16:31. | :16:33. | |
Iain Duncan Smith cancelled three meetings. That is another issue I | :16:34. | :16:37. | |
was asking about the job centre. It is not another issue because Iain | :16:38. | :16:42. | |
Duncan Smith fogged us off. This week you said that jobless | :16:43. | :16:46. | |
youngsters who won't take training will lose their welfare payments. | :16:47. | :16:50. | |
How many young people are not in work training or education? There | :16:51. | :16:58. | |
are 140,000 young people claiming benefits at the moment, but 850,000 | :16:59. | :17:05. | |
young people who are not in work at the moment. This applies to around | :17:06. | :17:14. | |
100,000 young people. There are actually 975,000, 16-24 -year-olds, | :17:15. | :17:21. | |
not in work, training or education. Your proposal only applies to | :17:22. | :17:28. | |
100,000 of them, why? This is applying to young people who are | :17:29. | :17:33. | |
signing on for benefits rather than signing up for training. We want to | :17:34. | :17:40. | |
make sure that all young people .. Why only 100,000? They are the ones | :17:41. | :17:45. | |
currently getting job-seeker's allowance. We are saying you can not | :17:46. | :17:58. | |
just sign up to... Can I get you to respond to this, the number of | :17:59. | :18:02. | |
people not in work, training or education fell last year by more | :18:03. | :18:11. | |
than you are planning to help. Long turn -- long-term unemployment is an | :18:12. | :18:22. | |
entrenched problem... This issue about an entrenched group of young | :18:23. | :18:26. | |
people. Young people who haven't got skills and are not in training we | :18:27. | :18:33. | |
know are much less likely to get a job so there are 140,018-24 | :18:34. | :18:37. | |
-year-olds signing onto benefits at the moment. This is about trying to | :18:38. | :18:43. | |
address that problem to make sure all young people have the skills | :18:44. | :18:48. | |
they need to get a job. Your policy is to take away part of the dole | :18:49. | :18:53. | |
unless young unemployed people agree to study for level three | :18:54. | :18:59. | |
qualifications, the equivalent of an AS-level or an NVQ but 40% of these | :19:00. | :19:04. | |
people have the literary skills of a nine-year-old. After all that failed | :19:05. | :19:10. | |
education, how are you going to train them to a level standard? We | :19:11. | :19:17. | |
are saying that anyone who doesn't have that a level or equivalent | :19:18. | :19:22. | |
qualification will be required to go back to college. We are not saying | :19:23. | :19:28. | |
that within a year they have to get up to that level but these are | :19:29. | :19:32. | |
exactly the sorts of people... These people have been failed by your | :19:33. | :19:35. | |
education system. These people are, for the last four years, have been | :19:36. | :19:39. | |
educated under a Conservative government. 18 - 21-year-olds, most | :19:40. | :19:46. | |
of them have their education under a Labour government during which | :19:47. | :19:52. | |
300,000 people left with no GCSEs whatsoever. I don't understand how | :19:53. | :19:57. | |
training for one year can do what 11 years in school did not. We are not | :19:58. | :20:01. | |
saying that within one year everybody will get up to a level | :20:02. | :20:05. | |
three qualifications, but if you are one of those people who enters the | :20:06. | :20:09. | |
Labour market age 18 with the reading skills of a nine-year-old, | :20:10. | :20:14. | |
they are the sorts of people that should not the left languishing I | :20:15. | :20:19. | |
should not the left languishing. I went to college in Hackney if you | :20:20. | :20:26. | |
you are -- a few weeks ago and there was a dyslexic boy studying painting | :20:27. | :20:31. | |
and decorating. In school they decided he was a troublemaker and | :20:32. | :20:35. | |
that he didn't want to learn. He went back to college because he | :20:36. | :20:40. | |
wanted to get the skills. He said that it wasn't until he went back to | :20:41. | :20:45. | |
college that he could pick up a newspaper and read it, it made a | :20:46. | :20:49. | |
huge difference but too many people are let down by the system. I am | :20:50. | :20:55. | |
wondering how the training will make up for an education system that | :20:56. | :21:00. | |
failed them but let's move on to your leader. Look at this graph of | :21:01. | :21:05. | |
Ed Miliband's popularity. This is the net satisfaction with him, it is | :21:06. | :21:10. | |
dreadful. The trend continues to climb since he became leader of the | :21:11. | :21:17. | |
Labour Party, why? What you have seen is another 2300 Labour | :21:18. | :21:20. | |
councillors since Ed Miliband became the leader of the Labour Party. You | :21:21. | :21:25. | |
saw in the elections a month ago that... Why is the satisfaction rate | :21:26. | :21:33. | |
falling? We can look at polls or actual election results and the fact | :21:34. | :21:38. | |
that we have got another 2000 Labour councillors, more people voting | :21:39. | :21:43. | |
Labour, the opinion polls today show that if there was a general election | :21:44. | :21:47. | |
today we would have a majority of more than 40, he must be doing | :21:48. | :21:55. | |
something right. Why do almost 0% of voters want to replace him as | :21:56. | :22:00. | |
leader? Why do 50% and more think that he is not up to the job? The | :22:01. | :22:07. | |
more people see Ed Miliband, the less impressed they are. The British | :22:08. | :22:13. | |
people seem to like him less. The election strategy I suggest that | :22:14. | :22:18. | |
follows from that is that you should keep Ed Miliband under wraps until | :22:19. | :22:22. | |
the election. Let's look at actually what happens when people get a | :22:23. | :22:28. | |
chance to vote, when they get that opportunity we have seen more Labour | :22:29. | :22:32. | |
councillors, more Labour members of the European Parliament... | :22:33. | :22:39. | |
Oppositions always get more. The opinion polls today, one of them | :22:40. | :22:45. | |
shows Labour four points ahead. You have not done that well in local | :22:46. | :22:50. | |
government elections or European elections. Why don't people like | :22:51. | :22:56. | |
him? I think we have done incredibly well in elections. People must like | :22:57. | :23:01. | |
a lot of the things Labour and Ed Miliband are doing because we are | :23:02. | :23:05. | |
winning back support across the country. We won local councils in | :23:06. | :23:09. | |
places like Hammersmith and Fulham, Crawley, Hastings, key places that | :23:10. | :23:15. | |
Labour need to win back at the general election next year. Even you | :23:16. | :23:20. | |
have said traditional Labour supporters are abandoning the party. | :23:21. | :23:26. | |
That is what Ed Miliband has said as well. We have got this real concern | :23:27. | :23:31. | |
about what has happened. If you look at the elections in May, 60% of | :23:32. | :23:36. | |
people didn't even bother going to vote. That is a profound issue not | :23:37. | :23:41. | |
just for Labour. You said traditional voters who perhaps at | :23:42. | :23:46. | |
times we took for granted are now being offered an alternative. Why | :23:47. | :23:51. | |
did you take them for granted? This is what Ed Miliband said. I am not | :23:52. | :23:57. | |
saying anything Ed Miliband himself has not said. When he ran for the | :23:58. | :24:03. | |
leadership he said that we took too many people for granted and we | :24:04. | :24:07. | |
needed to give people positive reasons to vote Labour, he has been | :24:08. | :24:11. | |
doing that. He has been there for four years and you are saying you | :24:12. | :24:15. | |
still take them for granted. Why? I am saying that for too long we have | :24:16. | :24:20. | |
taken them for granted. We are on track to win the general election | :24:21. | :24:24. | |
next year and that will defy all the odds. You are going to win... Ed | :24:25. | :24:35. | |
Miliband will win next year and make a great Prime Minister. | :24:36. | :24:39. | |
Now to the Liberal Democrats, at the risk of intruding into private | :24:40. | :24:44. | |
grief. The party is still smarting from dire results in the European | :24:45. | :24:48. | |
and Local Elections. The only poll Nick Clegg has won in recent times | :24:49. | :24:51. | |
is to be voted the most unpopular leader of a party in modern British | :24:52. | :24:55. | |
history. No surprise there have been calls for him to go, though that | :24:56. | :24:59. | |
still looks unlikely. Here's Eleanor. | :25:00. | :25:00. | |
Liberal Democrats celebrating, something we haven't seen for a | :25:01. | :25:02. | |
while. This victory back in 199 led while. This victory back in 1998 led | :25:03. | :25:08. | |
to a decade of power for the Lib Dems in Liverpool. What a contrast | :25:09. | :25:13. | |
to the city's political landscape today. At its height the party had | :25:14. | :25:19. | |
69 local councillors, now down to just three. The scale of the | :25:20. | :25:23. | |
challenge facing Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems is growing. The party is | :25:24. | :25:30. | |
rock bottom in the polls, consistently in single figures. It | :25:31. | :25:33. | |
was wiped out in the European elections losing all but one of its | :25:34. | :25:39. | |
12 MEPs and in the local elections it lost 42% of the seats that it was | :25:40. | :25:46. | |
defending. But on Merseyside, Nick Clegg was putting on a brave face. | :25:47. | :25:51. | |
We did badly in Liverpool, Manchester and London in particular, | :25:52. | :25:57. | |
we did well in other places. But you are right, we did badly in some of | :25:58. | :26:02. | |
those big cities and I have initiated a review, quite | :26:03. | :26:06. | |
naturally, to understand what went wrong, what went right. As Lib Dems | :26:07. | :26:12. | |
across the country get on with some serious soul-searching, there is an | :26:13. | :26:17. | |
admission that his is the leader of the party who is failing to hit the | :26:18. | :26:21. | |
right notes. Knocking on doors in Liverpool, I have to tell you that | :26:22. | :26:26. | |
Nick Clegg is not a popular person. Some might use the word toxic and I | :26:27. | :26:32. | |
find this very difficult because I know Nick very well and I see a | :26:33. | :26:36. | |
principal person who passionately believes in what he is doing and he | :26:37. | :26:41. | |
is a nice guy. As a result of his popularity, what has happened to the | :26:42. | :26:52. | |
core vote? In parts of the country, we are down to just three | :26:53. | :26:56. | |
councillors like Liverpool for example. You also lose the | :26:57. | :27:00. | |
deliverers and fundraisers and the organisers and the members of course | :27:01. | :27:04. | |
so all of that will have to be rebuilt. As they start fermenting | :27:05. | :27:10. | |
process, local parties across the country and here in Liverpool have | :27:11. | :27:14. | |
been voting on whether there should be a leadership contest. We had two | :27:15. | :27:21. | |
choices to flush out and have a go at Nick Clegg or to positively | :27:22. | :27:25. | |
decide we would sharpen up the campaign and get back on the | :27:26. | :27:30. | |
streets, and by four to one ratio we decided to get back on the streets. | :27:31. | :27:35. | |
We are bruised and battered but we are still here, the orange flag is | :27:36. | :27:41. | |
still flying and one day it will fly over this building again, Liverpool | :27:42. | :27:46. | |
town hall. But do people want the Lib Dems back in charge in this | :27:47. | :27:51. | |
city? I certainly wouldn't vote for them. Their performance in | :27:52. | :27:55. | |
Government and the way they have left their promises down, I could | :27:56. | :28:00. | |
not vote for them again. I voted Lib Dem in the last election because of | :28:01. | :28:06. | |
the university tuition fees and I would never vote for them again | :28:07. | :28:12. | |
because they broke their promise. The Lib Dems are awful, broken | :28:13. | :28:15. | |
promises and what have you. I wouldn't vote for them. This is the | :28:16. | :28:20. | |
declaration of the results for the Northwest... Last month, as other | :28:21. | :28:24. | |
party celebrated in the north-west, the Lib Dems here lost their only | :28:25. | :28:29. | |
MEP, Chris Davies. Now there is concern the party doesn't know how | :28:30. | :28:34. | |
to turn its fortunes around. We don't have an answer to that, if we | :28:35. | :28:40. | |
did we would be grasping it with both hands. We will do our best to | :28:41. | :28:48. | |
hold onto the places where we still have seats but as for the rest of | :28:49. | :28:53. | |
the country where we have been hollowed out, we don't know how to | :28:54. | :28:58. | |
start again until the next general election is out of the way. After | :28:59. | :29:01. | |
their disastrous performance in the European elections, pressure is | :29:02. | :29:04. | |
growing for the party to shift its stance. I think there has to be a | :29:05. | :29:15. | |
lancing of the wound, there should in a referendum and the Liberal | :29:16. | :29:22. | |
Democrats should be calling it. The rest of Europe once this because | :29:23. | :29:27. | |
they are fed up with Britain being unable to make up its mind. The Lib | :29:28. | :29:32. | |
Dems are now suffering the effects of being in Government. The party's | :29:33. | :29:37. | |
problem, choosing the right course to regain political credibility. | :29:38. | :29:40. | |
to regain political credibility We can now speak to form a Lib Dems | :29:41. | :29:46. | |
leader Ming Campbell. Welcome back to the Sunday Politics. Even your | :29:47. | :29:51. | |
own activists say that Nick Clegg is toxic. How will that change between | :29:52. | :29:58. | |
now and the election? When you have had disappointing results, but you | :29:59. | :30:03. | |
have to do is to rebuild. You pick yourself up and start all over | :30:04. | :30:07. | |
again, and the reason why the Liberal Democrats got 57, 56 seats | :30:08. | :30:12. | |
in the House of Commons now is because we picked ourselves up, we | :30:13. | :30:16. | |
took every opportunity and we have rebuilt from the bottom up. | :30:17. | :30:27. | |
least popular leader in modern history and more unpopular than your | :30:28. | :30:30. | |
mate Gordon Brown. You are running out of time. No one believes that | :30:31. | :30:35. | |
being the leader of a modern political party in the UK is an easy | :30:36. | :30:39. | |
job. Both Ed Miliband and David Cameron must have had cause to | :30:40. | :30:43. | |
think, over breakfast this morning, when they saw the headlines in some | :30:44. | :30:47. | |
of the Sunday papers. Of course it is a difficult job but it was | :30:48. | :30:51. | |
pointed out a moment or two ago that Nick Clegg is a man of principle and | :30:52. | :30:55. | |
enormous resilience if you consider what he had to put up with, and in | :30:56. | :30:59. | |
my view, he is quite clearly the person best qualified to lead the | :31:00. | :31:02. | |
party between now and the general election and through the election | :31:03. | :31:06. | |
campaign, and beyond. So why don't people like him? We have had to take | :31:07. | :31:11. | |
some pretty difficult decisions, and, of course, people didn't expect | :31:12. | :31:15. | |
that. If you look back to the rather heady days of the rose garden behind | :31:16. | :31:21. | |
ten Downing St, people thought it was all going to be sweetness and | :31:22. | :31:23. | |
light, but the fact is, we didn't light, but the fact is, we didn t | :31:24. | :31:27. | |
know then what we know now, about the extent of the economic crisis we | :31:28. | :31:32. | |
win, and a lot of difficult decisions have had to be taken in | :31:33. | :31:35. | |
order to restore economic stability. Look around you. You will see we are | :31:36. | :31:40. | |
not there yet but we are a long way better off than in 2010. You are not | :31:41. | :31:45. | |
getting the credit for it, the Tories are. We will be a little more | :31:46. | :31:52. | |
assertive about taking the credit. For example, the fact that 23 | :31:53. | :31:57. | |
million people have had a tax cut of ?800 per year and we have taken 2 | :31:58. | :32:00. | |
million people out of paying tax altogether. Ming Campbell, your | :32:01. | :32:04. | |
people say that on every programme like this. Because it is true. That | :32:05. | :32:10. | |
might be the case, but you are at seven or 8% in the polls, and nobody | :32:11. | :32:14. | |
is listening, or they don't believe it. Once | :32:15. | :32:22. | |
is listening, or they don't believe doubt that what we have achieved | :32:23. | :32:23. | |
will be much more easily recognised, and there is no doubt, | :32:24. | :32:27. | |
for example, in some of the recent polls, like the Ashcroft Pole, | :32:28. | :32:31. | |
something like 30% of those polled said that as a result at the next | :32:32. | :32:39. | |
something like 30% of those polled general election, they would prepare | :32:40. | :32:41. | |
their to be a coalition involving the Liberal Democrats. So there is | :32:42. | :32:46. | |
no question that the whole notion of coalition is still very much a live | :32:47. | :32:50. | |
one, and one which we have made work in the public interest. The problem | :32:51. | :32:55. | |
is people don't think that. People see you trying to have your cake and | :32:56. | :32:58. | |
eat it. On the one hand you want to get your share of the credit for the | :32:59. | :33:02. | |
turnaround in the economy, on the other hand you can't stop yourself | :33:03. | :33:05. | |
from distancing yourself from the Tories and things that you did not | :33:06. | :33:09. | |
like happening. You are trying to face both ways at once. If you | :33:10. | :33:15. | |
remember our fellow Scotsman famously said you cannot ride both | :33:16. | :33:28. | |
remember our fellow Scotsman to the terms -- terms of the | :33:29. | :33:28. | |
remember our fellow Scotsman coalition agreement, which is what | :33:29. | :33:30. | |
we signed up to in 2010. In addition, in furtherance of that | :33:31. | :33:34. | |
agreement, we have created things like the pupil premium and the | :33:35. | :33:38. | |
others I mentioned and you were rather dismissive. I'm not | :33:39. | :33:42. | |
dismissive, I'm just saying they don't make a difference to what | :33:43. | :33:45. | |
people think of you. We will do everything in our power to change | :33:46. | :33:51. | |
that between now and May 2015. The interesting thing is, going back to | :33:52. | :33:56. | |
the Ashcroft result, it demonstrated clearly that in constituencies where | :33:57. | :34:02. | |
we have MPs and we are well dug in, we are doing everything that the | :34:03. | :34:05. | |
public expects of us, and we are doing very well indeed. You aren't | :34:06. | :34:10. | |
sure fellow Lib Dems have been saying this for you -- you and your | :34:11. | :34:16. | |
fellow Liberal Dems have been saying this for a year or 18 months, and | :34:17. | :34:19. | |
since then you have lost all of your MEPs apart from one, you lost your | :34:20. | :34:23. | |
deposit in a by-election, you lost 310 councillor, including everyone | :34:24. | :34:29. | |
in Manchester or Islington. Mr Clegg leading you into the next general | :34:30. | :34:34. | |
election will be the equivalent of the charge of the light Brigade. | :34:35. | :34:37. | |
election will be the equivalent of the charge of the light Brigade I | :34:38. | :34:37. | |
the charge of the light Brigade. I doubt that very much. The | :34:38. | :34:42. | |
implication behind that lit you rehearsed is that we should pack our | :34:43. | :34:46. | |
tents in the night and steal away. -- that litany. And if you heard in | :34:47. | :34:51. | |
that piece that preceded the discussion, people were saying, look | :34:52. | :34:54. | |
we have to start from the bottom and have to rebuild. That is exactly | :34:55. | :35:09. | |
what we will do. Nine months is a period of gestation. As you well | :35:10. | :35:13. | |
know. I wouldn't dismiss it quite so easily as that. I'm not here to say | :35:14. | :35:18. | |
we had a wonderful result or anything like it, but what I do say | :35:19. | :35:22. | |
is that the party is determined to turn it round, and that Nick Clegg | :35:23. | :35:26. | |
is the person best qualified to do it. Should your party adopt a | :35:27. | :35:31. | |
referendum about in or out on Europe? No, we should stick to the | :35:32. | :35:36. | |
coalition agreement. If there is any transfer of power from Westminster | :35:37. | :35:40. | |
to Brussels, that will be subject to a referendum. No change. And | :35:41. | :35:46. | |
finally, as a Lib Dem, you must be glad you are not fighting the next | :35:47. | :35:52. | |
election yourself? I've fought every election since 1974, so I've had a | :35:53. | :35:57. | |
few experiences, some good, some bad, but the one thing I have done | :35:58. | :36:02. | |
and the one thing a lot of other people have done is that they have | :36:03. | :36:05. | |
stuck to the task, and that is what will happen in May 2015. Ming | :36:06. | :36:07. | |
Campbell, thank you for joining us. It's just gone 11.35am, you're | :36:08. | :36:11. | |
watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers | :36:12. | :36:13. | |
in Scotland who leave us now East. Surgeons but no doctors, | :36:14. | :36:35. | |
patients who cannot get appointments and half empty training courses. | :36:36. | :36:39. | |
and half empty training courses This is probably the worst workforce | :36:40. | :36:44. | |
crisis in my years as a qualified doctor. The parliamentarians trying | :36:45. | :36:55. | |
to get their message across. I think politics really matters and can make | :36:56. | :36:59. | |
a real difference to people's lives and unless they are engaged they do | :37:00. | :37:03. | |
not worry to vote. Let's meet not worry to vote. Let's medt our | :37:04. | :37:15. | |
guests, former Minister of Labour's candidate for Northampton North. And | :37:16. | :37:25. | |
newly re`elected conservative MVP. I wanted to start with the environment | :37:26. | :37:31. | |
committee report into flooding which criticised the lack of routine | :37:32. | :37:35. | |
flight maintenance seeing it as our TB in a month. The tidal surge left | :37:36. | :37:45. | |
1400 homes flooded and many acres of land underwater. 130 defencd | :37:46. | :37:53. | |
projects needed repair. The main finding is that you must not cut | :37:54. | :37:58. | |
down on maintenance because you create extra capital costs further | :37:59. | :38:06. | |
down the line. This report says that not enough money is | :38:07. | :38:12. | |
prevent flooding and that is a false economy? If you look back at what | :38:13. | :38:16. | |
happened, the worst in 50 years, the Environment Agency did an | :38:17. | :38:23. | |
amazing job compared to 50 years ago, but absolutely | :38:24. | :38:27. | |
are changing and we need to make sure we are prepared and look at how | :38:28. | :38:35. | |
flood defences are performed, whether they need to be better | :38:36. | :38:41. | |
maintained. I am concerned about areas in the North claims and in | :38:42. | :38:48. | |
Somerset making sure that experience would not happen here. Let's look at | :38:49. | :38:55. | |
places where the defences h`ve held up well such as in | :38:56. | :38:59. | |
Northamptonshire. That is because there was very good investmdnt at | :39:00. | :39:08. | |
the time. ?7 million saved in any much more than that. The cost of the | :39:09. | :39:15. | |
last round was around about ?1 billion, so we need to see flood | :39:16. | :39:19. | |
defences and protection and essential infrastructure and | :39:20. | :39:24. | |
increase funding which has been cut. Jobs going at the Environment | :39:25. | :39:30. | |
Agency? Money has been put into environmental protection. If you | :39:31. | :39:39. | |
look at what has happened in some places, there are flood defences and | :39:40. | :39:44. | |
it is now time to be complacent when patterns changing and there is a | :39:45. | :39:50. | |
commitment money will go into this. We want to learn from what happened | :39:51. | :39:54. | |
in the West Country and that the needs to be more dredging we have to | :39:55. | :39:59. | |
look at that. We will have to leave it. | :40:00. | :40:02. | |
Staff shortages in doctors' surgeries. A struggle to recruit | :40:03. | :40:12. | |
enough doctors to cope with demand and one surgery is expected to close | :40:13. | :40:19. | |
later this year leaving 16,000 no family doctor and some GPs | :40:20. | :40:24. | |
the crisis could force the privatisation of the NHS. The | :40:25. | :40:28. | |
pressure is rising and the statistics tell a stark story. | :40:29. | :40:33. | |
Demand for medical services are going up and they are not enough GPs | :40:34. | :40:39. | |
to go around. This is probably the worst workforce crisis I have seen | :40:40. | :40:43. | |
in 30 years as a private doctor. David is something going wrong and | :40:44. | :40:47. | |
we need to change that. If xou have we need to change that. If you have | :40:48. | :40:53. | |
been to the doctor lately you will have seen a few changes. Surgeries | :40:54. | :40:59. | |
are high`tech places these days with a lot of Kier previously given by | :41:00. | :41:01. | |
hospitals taking place. People are living longer and people have | :41:02. | :41:08. | |
multiple diseases that are continuing to lead reasonably | :41:09. | :41:13. | |
healthy lives. The increased workload has made many established | :41:14. | :41:22. | |
doctors retired early and there is a significant shortage of GPs. I have | :41:23. | :41:28. | |
a great practice with 16,000 patients about to be short of six | :41:29. | :41:35. | |
doctors, and we will be down to two GPs within a few months. Thdy do not | :41:36. | :41:43. | |
think they can provide a safe service any more. | :41:44. | :41:47. | |
longer collect statistics btt we have learned the problem is not just | :41:48. | :41:53. | |
in Essex. In Suffolk, 14 of 66 are currently advertising | :41:54. | :41:57. | |
doctors and the Norfolk arotnd half have vacancies. This surgery in | :41:58. | :42:03. | |
have vacancies. This surgerx in mid`Norfolk has had to transfer 1500 | :42:04. | :42:05. | |
to a nearby practice. It wouldn't be to a nearby practice. It wotldn t be | :42:06. | :42:22. | |
a natural thing to do. Changes to funding mean local subsidies are | :42:23. | :42:27. | |
also under financial pressure. GP surgeries like this account for 90% | :42:28. | :42:34. | |
of patient contact time but attract only 8% of the budget, and fill | :42:35. | :42:41. | |
every patient matters about 20p per day. Health education in England as | :42:42. | :42:47. | |
the body responsible for tr`ining doctors and aims to get 50% of all | :42:48. | :42:53. | |
graduates into general practice by 2016. It says the take`up in our | :42:54. | :43:01. | |
region is around 93%, a fall of 7% since 2010. The take`up is still | :43:02. | :43:08. | |
relatively high but we have been told by local medical committees | :43:09. | :43:13. | |
that GP training courses attached to hospitals in our region are only | :43:14. | :43:18. | |
half full. In Suffolk, the GP Federation aims to attract more | :43:19. | :43:24. | |
doctors to the county. One of the things we really want to do is | :43:25. | :43:28. | |
support general practices to make them a more attractive placd for | :43:29. | :43:37. | |
young doctors to come to. It is a great place and when people come | :43:38. | :43:41. | |
here they really `` do not often want to leave. I think Suffolk is a | :43:42. | :43:50. | |
great place to work and I h`ve really enjoyed it. There's a great | :43:51. | :43:52. | |
range of things work and been those great | :43:53. | :43:59. | |
diversity. Do you think you might come back? I would not say no. A | :44:00. | :44:11. | |
failure to solve the GP crisis could have far`reaching consequences. I | :44:12. | :44:17. | |
worry that we are seeing thd privatisation of primary care. We | :44:18. | :44:25. | |
would lose that personal care that the population has grown to | :44:26. | :44:30. | |
appreciate. Joining me from Ipswich, a practising doctor. What are you | :44:31. | :44:39. | |
going to do about this shortage You are right in saying that general | :44:40. | :44:46. | |
practice and community carers the engine room of the NHS. We need to | :44:47. | :44:52. | |
see more investment in the years ahead as they look after | :44:53. | :44:56. | |
with increasingly complex Kier needs. That is why the government is | :44:57. | :45:03. | |
increasing the funding available and that is happening across all the | :45:04. | :45:07. | |
Legion but we are also making sure we're increasing the number of GPs, | :45:08. | :45:15. | |
1000 than in 2010. `` 1000 lore The problem as it takes many years to | :45:16. | :45:20. | |
train a general practitioner, five years from leading medical school, | :45:21. | :45:28. | |
and that planning has to be in place many years in advance. Some of the | :45:29. | :45:34. | |
issues we are tackling are due to decisions made in 2007, 2008. It is | :45:35. | :45:41. | |
all very well blaming the previous incumbents but we heard from | :45:42. | :45:45. | |
patients and about one surgery in Essex which will close leaving | :45:46. | :45:51. | |
16,000 without any GPs. What will you do in the meantime? We've also | :45:52. | :45:54. | |
got to recognise that many general practices are small businesses in | :45:55. | :46:04. | |
their own right. That is the funding model for decades now. Therd's an | :46:05. | :46:08. | |
opportunity for general practice is to offer additional salary for new | :46:09. | :46:14. | |
GPs coming in and packages to attract people to the area, and as | :46:15. | :46:17. | |
you have hard in England, we are relatively well`off | :46:18. | :46:21. | |
people applying. Whilst it lay be people applying. Whilst it may be | :46:22. | :46:29. | |
that you have indicated 93% is the fill rate, because the number of | :46:30. | :46:37. | |
places has increased we are seeing more people choosing general | :46:38. | :46:42. | |
practice as the carrier and what we will be seen by 2016 is 50% of | :46:43. | :46:45. | |
doctors going into general practice, meaning a lot more effort and | :46:46. | :46:51. | |
attention going into it. If these are run on some sort of business | :46:52. | :46:57. | |
model, what happens if they effectively go bust? The model is | :46:58. | :47:09. | |
run `` has run very effectively for many years and the average GP is | :47:10. | :47:16. | |
paid a salary of ?110,000. Why aren't more people coming forward | :47:17. | :47:20. | |
for these vacancies we talkdd about? Half of surgeries in Norfolk | :47:21. | :47:23. | |
have vacancies with no applicants. have vacancies with no applhcants. | :47:24. | :47:33. | |
There is a duty to those GPs as they run the small business to make sure | :47:34. | :47:37. | |
they put together attractivd packages for new GPs coming into | :47:38. | :47:44. | |
work and those practices in the future. It is incorrect | :47:45. | :47:47. | |
there's a lack of people choosing general practice because we now have | :47:48. | :47:51. | |
1000 more GPs than the work in 010. It is an attractive career and we | :47:52. | :47:58. | |
need to see more people choosing but it is not just about delivering | :47:59. | :48:02. | |
GPs and right technology and enabling | :48:03. | :48:07. | |
practices to work health problems to cope and look | :48:08. | :48:12. | |
after themselves. investing in important work for | :48:13. | :48:17. | |
district nurses as well and making sure we have enough to support | :48:18. | :48:23. | |
people with long`term conditions. Thank you for the moment. Do you | :48:24. | :48:29. | |
think people have to expect less from GPs in the future? No, but I | :48:30. | :48:35. | |
think you have to have experienced and properly trained GPs and Daz was | :48:36. | :48:43. | |
just pointed out, you cannot train AGP overnight. | :48:44. | :48:46. | |
the last few years of the L`bour government when they | :48:47. | :48:55. | |
medical careers and I remember warning | :48:56. | :49:01. | |
brightest would leave the country as a result. | :49:02. | :49:07. | |
heard more money is going into GP training and | :49:08. | :49:12. | |
GP practices is excellent. We also need to remember that the job is | :49:13. | :49:16. | |
also changing, we are living longer and care of the elderly is | :49:17. | :49:21. | |
important, so we want well`trained proper GPs. Do you think people are | :49:22. | :49:26. | |
on the other hand expecting too much? They should not expect 24 | :49:27. | :49:33. | |
hours a day service. I do not think people are expecting too much and | :49:34. | :49:38. | |
they would dispute some of figures because many of the people | :49:39. | :49:42. | |
would have started under the Labour Government. My | :49:43. | :49:49. | |
understanding is that while you have 93% take`up of training in the East | :49:50. | :49:55. | |
Midlands, it is 62%, which is very serious. There's a 3% reduction in | :49:56. | :50:04. | |
the number of GPs and people are waiting and you hear people talking | :50:05. | :50:11. | |
about it. What needs to happen? There needs to be more investment | :50:12. | :50:14. | |
GP training and attracting people into the profession. The government | :50:15. | :50:20. | |
took their eye off the ball with their top`down | :50:21. | :50:25. | |
wasted time and money and goodwill, and I think they need to look again | :50:26. | :50:30. | |
at exactly how the services are configured, so that GPs can | :50:31. | :50:35. | |
offer... I want to come back to Doctor Poulter. Are you resting on | :50:36. | :50:42. | |
your laurels are busy work still to be done? Not at all. The 3% decrease | :50:43. | :50:50. | |
in GP numbers is fully qualhfied GP and that is a direct legacy of the | :50:51. | :50:56. | |
lack of investment towards the end of the Labour Government. The | :50:57. | :51:01. | |
increase has mostly come from GP registers coming towards the end of | :51:02. | :51:06. | |
their training who are about to become fully qualified GPs which | :51:07. | :51:11. | |
shows we are investing in more GPs sure we have the workforce to look | :51:12. | :51:19. | |
after people. There has been a lot of talk in | :51:20. | :51:25. | |
recent weeks about the publhc feeling | :51:26. | :51:29. | |
and in particular with the main parties. It probably explains why | :51:30. | :51:36. | |
turnout in local elections is often so long. He recent survey found only | :51:37. | :51:41. | |
49% were likely to vote and 67% believe politicians don't understand | :51:42. | :51:51. | |
their daily lives. The Housds of Parliament recently launched an | :51:52. | :51:59. | |
outreach service to explain how politics works. I think polhtics | :52:00. | :52:10. | |
really matters and can make a difference to people's lives and | :52:11. | :52:14. | |
unless people are engaged, I actually worry they do not have | :52:15. | :52:19. | |
rights to complain. You are facing an uphill struggle? UKIP is a signal | :52:20. | :52:26. | |
because a lot of the support seems to come from people who do not | :52:27. | :52:32. | |
normally bought slaughters `n angry voice. One area of concern hs young | :52:33. | :52:38. | |
walkers with less than one third under 24 saying they are interested. | :52:39. | :52:47. | |
`` young voters. She has called on her party to do more to engage | :52:48. | :52:49. | |
her party to do more to eng`ge with young voters. They may be voting | :52:50. | :52:55. | |
less than older people, that is extremely clear, and they are voting | :52:56. | :53:02. | |
less than previous generations. That is also an important point | :53:03. | :53:08. | |
does not mean they are not doing politics. | :53:09. | :53:12. | |
projects and getting results. That is politics, but there is perhaps a | :53:13. | :53:19. | |
different language around it. I was speaking to another MP from our | :53:20. | :53:23. | |
region who said we live in a world of instant | :53:24. | :53:26. | |
particularly young voters expect things to be solved instantly. Is | :53:27. | :53:32. | |
that one of the problems? I am sure it is in there but I do not see us | :53:33. | :53:37. | |
as a problem, just the way the world doubts. It is an opportunity for | :53:38. | :53:41. | |
politicians to do things differently and to serve the people we are there | :53:42. | :53:48. | |
to serve. This is just the way my generation and those behind us will | :53:49. | :53:54. | |
be like. How do you win thel back? You want to get the message out in | :53:55. | :53:58. | |
the right way. should have been doing this for | :53:59. | :54:08. | |
years? Of course and good ones have. It has not worked! Things kdep | :54:09. | :54:14. | |
moving on and a particularly obvious changes the coming of the intranet. | :54:15. | :54:17. | |
That affects all generations because we lived through, but my generation | :54:18. | :54:20. | |
and those even younger have grown with the intranet and that changes | :54:21. | :54:30. | |
politics and radically. Politicians need to change the game? Politicians | :54:31. | :54:34. | |
need to respond to the Newm`rket. What business Woods failed to sell | :54:35. | :54:41. | |
to new customers? Do you thhnk this is an opportunity to reject any | :54:42. | :54:47. | |
newly to young people? `` in a new way? The big crisis coming is | :54:48. | :54:55. | |
individual voter registration which will result in a lots young people | :54:56. | :55:00. | |
disappearing off the electoral roll and it'll be a huge challenge | :55:01. | :55:07. | |
make sure they are able to vote and actually use it. | :55:08. | :55:13. | |
question of changing the message, we have to | :55:14. | :55:18. | |
traditional and conventional politics as a way to change their | :55:19. | :55:24. | |
lives. Do you agree, do they do it better elsewhere in Europe? Not | :55:25. | :55:27. | |
necessarily because in the Duropean elections about one in the UK | :55:28. | :55:33. | |
elections about one in the TK voted, about the same as five years ago, | :55:34. | :55:38. | |
and the Conservative vote in the East of England held up | :55:39. | :55:42. | |
you predicted. It is important that we engage, but if you look | :55:43. | :55:47. | |
elsewhere, Slovakia was the worst at 13%. We are not the worst in terms | :55:48. | :55:55. | |
of water turnout. In terms of using the Internet it is important we look | :55:56. | :56:02. | |
at what people are saying and it is not just young people who are | :56:03. | :56:08. | |
contacting us through the Internet, you have to use new media. TKIP | :56:09. | :56:13. | |
brought in new voters, what are they doing right? And quite a lot of | :56:14. | :56:20. | |
older voters. I had more active young campaigners knocking on doors | :56:21. | :56:26. | |
campaigning with me than at any point in the last ten years. Your | :56:27. | :56:34. | |
party is losing votes to UKHP, what are they doing you are not? We lost | :56:35. | :56:38. | |
some and we probably lost fdwer than others. Why isn't labour and | :56:39. | :56:45. | |
engaging as much? It was voting like a free kick at the traditional | :56:46. | :56:54. | |
parties. We need to change the way we do politics and speak to people | :56:55. | :57:00. | |
and over the coming year we will have to make sure that young people | :57:01. | :57:07. | |
are on the register to vote. We must move on. Now to our politic`l | :57:08. | :57:14. | |
round`up of the week and it seems the only way is Essex even hf the | :57:15. | :57:19. | |
trends do not run. `` trains. | :57:20. | :57:28. | |
A plea from Essex MP. Will he commend Essex businesses and support | :57:29. | :57:34. | |
their efforts to export mord by looking favourably upon our plans to | :57:35. | :57:39. | |
upgrade our infrastructure? As I have said before, where Essex leads | :57:40. | :57:47. | |
the rest of the country follows. But nobody followed anybody into Essex | :57:48. | :57:52. | |
as right on cue services and to call Chesterfield. And the need for a new | :57:53. | :58:01. | |
road junction was argued in Westminster. But it was the plans | :58:02. | :58:07. | |
for Rushden late's leisure complex that prompted an argument bdtween | :58:08. | :58:12. | |
two Northamptonshire MPs. He should be getting the splinters out of his | :58:13. | :58:19. | |
backside for sitting on the fence so long over this matter. A cl`im that | :58:20. | :58:23. | |
was strongly refuted. What about the new a 14 junction? It | :58:24. | :58:36. | |
is really important, infrastructure and investing in skills. And train | :58:37. | :58:46. | |
chaos, is it time some of these franchises were handed back? We need | :58:47. | :58:48. | |
more investment in infrastructure and we have started | :58:49. | :58:51. | |
that. We have been campaignhng that. We have been campaigning for | :58:52. | :58:58. | |
better railway infrastructure and have some improvements. We need a | :58:59. | :59:05. | |
vibrant economy in order to deliver the cash and I agree we need that on | :59:06. | :59:10. | |
broadband as well. Franchisds handed back to the government? If xou fail | :59:11. | :59:15. | |
to deliver you should not bd doing it. Thank | :59:16. | :59:19. | |
information, you can apply to them and they will be obliged to tell | :59:20. | :59:24. | |
you. Thanks for joining us. Andrew, back to you. | :59:25. | :59:42. | |
think you'd want to. Labour grandees are not queueing up to sing his | :59:43. | :59:47. | |
praises. Look at this. In my view, he is the leader we have and he is | :59:48. | :59:52. | |
the leader I support and he is somebody capable of leading the | :59:53. | :59:56. | |
party to victory. Ed Miliband will leave this to victory, and I believe | :59:57. | :00:02. | |
he can. If he doesn't, what would happen to the Labour Party? We could | :00:03. | :00:08. | |
be in the wilderness for 15 years. At the moment he has to convince | :00:09. | :00:11. | |
people he has the capacity to lead the country. That's not my view, | :00:12. | :00:13. | |
people he has the capacity to lead the country. That's not my view but | :00:14. | :00:17. | |
people don't believe that. We had a leader of the Labour Party was | :00:18. | :00:20. | |
publicly embarrassed, because whoever was in charge of press | :00:21. | :00:27. | |
letting go through a process where we have councillors in Merseyside | :00:28. | :00:36. | |
resigning. It was a schoolboy error. Having policies without them being | :00:37. | :00:40. | |
drawn together into a convincing and vivid narrative and with what you do | :00:41. | :00:50. | |
the people in the country. You have to draw together, connect the | :00:51. | :00:56. | |
policies, link them back to the leader and give people a real sense | :00:57. | :01:02. | |
of where you are going. Somehow he has never quite managed to be | :01:03. | :01:08. | |
himself and create that identity with the public. And we are joined | :01:09. | :01:14. | |
by the president of you girls, Peter Kellner. Welcome to the Sunday | :01:15. | :01:24. | |
politics. -- YouGov. The Labour Party is six points ahead in your | :01:25. | :01:29. | |
poll this morning. So what is the problem? On this basis he will win | :01:30. | :01:33. | |
the next election. If the election were today and the figures held up, | :01:34. | :01:37. | |
you would have a Labour government with a narrow overall majority. One | :01:38. | :01:42. | |
should not forget that. Let me make three points. The first is, in past | :01:43. | :01:48. | |
parliaments, opposition normally lose ground and governments gain | :01:49. | :01:54. | |
ground in the final few months. The opposition should be further ahead | :01:55. | :01:56. | |
than this. I don't think six is enough. Secondly, Ed Miliband is | :01:57. | :02:03. | |
behind David Cameron when people are asked who they want as Prime | :02:04. | :02:06. | |
Minister and Labour is behind the Conservatives went people are asked | :02:07. | :02:09. | |
who they trust on the economy. There have been elections when the party | :02:10. | :02:13. | |
has won by being behind on leadership and other elections where | :02:14. | :02:17. | |
they have won by being behind on the economy. No party has ever won an | :02:18. | :02:21. | |
election when it has been clearly behind on both leadership and the | :02:22. | :02:22. | |
economy. Let me have another go. The economy. Let me have another go The | :02:23. | :02:28. | |
Labour Party brand is a strong brand. The Tory Bramleys week. The | :02:29. | :02:32. | |
Labour brand is stronger. That is a blast -- the Labour -- the Tory | :02:33. | :02:42. | |
Bramleys week. A lot of the Tories -- the Tory brand is weak. Cant you | :02:43. | :02:50. | |
win on policies and a strong party brand? If you have those too, you | :02:51. | :02:56. | |
need the third factor which isn t there. People believing that you | :02:57. | :03:02. | |
have what it takes, competent skills, determination, | :03:03. | :03:04. | |
determination, whatever makes to carry through. -- whatever mix. A | :03:05. | :03:14. | |
lot of Ed Miliband policies, on the banks, energy prices, Brent | :03:15. | :03:18. | |
controls, people like them. But in government, would they carry them | :03:19. | :03:22. | |
through? They think they are not up to it. -- rent controls. If people | :03:23. | :03:27. | |
think you won't deliver what you say, even if they like it, they were | :03:28. | :03:31. | |
necessarily vote for you. That is the missing third element. There is | :03:32. | :03:36. | |
a strong Labour brand, but it's not strong enough to overcome the | :03:37. | :03:40. | |
feeling that the Labour leadership is not up to it. Nick, you had some | :03:41. | :03:47. | |
senior Labour figure telling you that if Mr Miliband losing the next | :03:48. | :03:50. | |
election he will have to resign immediately and cannot fight another | :03:51. | :03:53. | |
election the way Neil Kinnock did after 1987. What was remarkable to | :03:54. | :03:58. | |
me was that people were even thinking along these lines, and even | :03:59. | :04:02. | |
more remarkable that they would tell you they were thinking along these | :04:03. | :04:08. | |
lines? What is the problem? The problem is, is that Ed Miliband says | :04:09. | :04:14. | |
it would be unprecedented to win the general election after the second | :04:15. | :04:18. | |
worst result since 1918. They are concerned about is the start of a | :04:19. | :04:22. | |
script that he would say on the day after losing the general election. | :04:23. | :04:24. | |
Essentially what the people are trying to do is get their argument | :04:25. | :04:29. | |
in first and to say, you cannot do what Neil Kinnock did in 1987. Don't | :04:30. | :04:31. | |
forget that Neil Kinnock in 1987 what Neil Kinnock did in 1987. Don't | :04:32. | :04:33. | |
forget that Neil Kinnock in 198 was forget that Neil Kinnock in 1987 was | :04:34. | :04:35. | |
in the middle of a very brave process of modernisation and had one | :04:36. | :04:40. | |
and fought a very campaign that was professional but he lost again in | :04:41. | :04:44. | |
1992, and they wanted to get their line in first. What some people are | :04:45. | :04:51. | |
saying is that this is an election that the Labour Party should be | :04:52. | :04:54. | |
winning because the coalition is so unpopular. If you don't win, I'm | :04:55. | :04:56. | |
afraid to say, there is something wrong with you. Don't you find it | :04:57. | :05:00. | |
remarkable that people are prepared to think along these lines at this | :05:01. | :05:04. | |
stage, when Labour are ahead in the polls, still the bookies favourite | :05:05. | :05:07. | |
to win, and you start to speak publicly, or in private to the | :05:08. | :05:12. | |
public print, but we might have to get rid of him if he doesn't win. | :05:13. | :05:17. | |
Everything you say about labour in this situation has been said about | :05:18. | :05:19. | |
the Tories. We wondered whether Boris Johnson would tie himself to | :05:20. | :05:24. | |
the mask and he is the next leader in waiting if Cameron goes. It's a | :05:25. | :05:29. | |
mirror image of that. We talk about things being unprecedented. It's | :05:30. | :05:31. | |
unprecedented for a government to gain seats. All the things you say | :05:32. | :05:35. | |
about labour, you could say it the Conservatives. That's what makes the | :05:36. | :05:40. | |
next election so interesting. But in the aftermath of the European | :05:41. | :05:43. | |
elections and the local government elections, in which the | :05:44. | :05:45. | |
Conservatives did not do that well, the issue was not Mr Cameron or the | :05:46. | :05:50. | |
Tories doing well, the issue was the Labour Party and how they had not | :05:51. | :05:53. | |
done as well as they should have done, and that conversation was | :05:54. | :05:56. | |
fuelled by the kind of people who have been speaking to nick from the | :05:57. | :06:02. | |
Labour Party. Rachel Reeves cited their real-life performance in | :06:03. | :06:06. | |
elections as a reason for optimism. When in fact their performance in | :06:07. | :06:10. | |
the Europeans and locals was disappointing for an opposition one | :06:11. | :06:12. | |
year away from a general election. What alarms me about labour is the | :06:13. | :06:17. | |
way they react to criticisms about Ed Miliband. Two years ago when he | :06:18. | :06:22. | |
was attacked, they said they were 15 points ahead, and then a year ago | :06:23. | :06:25. | |
there were saying they were nine or ten ahead, and now they are saying | :06:26. | :06:30. | |
we are still five or six ahead. The trend is alarming. It points to a | :06:31. | :06:35. | |
smaller Labour lead. Am I right in detecting a bit of a class war going | :06:36. | :06:39. | |
on in the Labour Party? There are a lot of northern Labour MPs who think | :06:40. | :06:44. | |
that Ed Miliband is to north London, and there are too many metropolitan | :06:45. | :06:49. | |
cronies around him must I think that is right, Andrew. What I think is, | :06:50. | :06:56. | |
being a pessimist in terms of their prospects, I do think the Labour | :06:57. | :07:01. | |
Party could win the next election. I just don't think they can as they | :07:02. | :07:04. | |
are going at the moment. But the positioning for a possible defeat, | :07:05. | :07:08. | |
what they should be talking about is what do we need to change in the | :07:09. | :07:14. | |
party and the way Ed Miliband performs in order to secure victory. | :07:15. | :07:18. | |
That is a debate they could have, and they could make the changes. I | :07:19. | :07:23. | |
find it odd that they are being so defeatist. Don't go away. Peter is a | :07:24. | :07:28. | |
boffin when it comes to polls. That is why we have a mod for the | :07:29. | :07:33. | |
election prediction swings and roundabouts. He is looking for what | :07:34. | :07:37. | |
he calls the incumbency effect. Don't know what is a back-up -- what | :07:38. | :07:43. | |
that's about question don't worry, here is an. Being in office is bad | :07:44. | :07:53. | |
for your health. Political folk wisdom has it that incumbency | :07:54. | :07:57. | |
favours one party in particular, the Liberal Democrats. That is because | :07:58. | :08:02. | |
their MPs have a reputation as ferociously good local campaigners | :08:03. | :08:05. | |
who do really well at holding on to their seats. However, this time | :08:06. | :08:10. | |
round, several big-name long serving Liberal Democrats like Ming | :08:11. | :08:14. | |
Campbell, David Heath and Don Foster are standing down. Does that mean | :08:15. | :08:18. | |
the incumbency effect disappears like a puff of smoke? Then there is | :08:19. | :08:24. | |
another theory, called the sophomore surge. It might sound like a movie | :08:25. | :08:29. | |
about US college kids, but it goes like this. New MPs tend to do better | :08:30. | :08:33. | |
in their second election than they did in their first. That could | :08:34. | :08:37. | |
favour the Tories because they have lots of first-time MPs. The big | :08:38. | :08:42. | |
question is, what does this mean for the 7th of May 2015, the date of the | :08:43. | :08:46. | |
next general election? The answer is, who knows? I know a man who | :08:47. | :08:56. | |
knows. Peter. What does it all mean? You can go onto your PC now and draw | :08:57. | :09:01. | |
down programmes which say that these are the voting figures from a | :09:02. | :09:04. | |
national poll, so what will the seats look like? This is based on | :09:05. | :09:08. | |
uniform swing. Every seat moving up and down across the country in the | :09:09. | :09:13. | |
same way. Historically, that's been a pretty good guide. I think that's | :09:14. | :09:18. | |
going to completely break down next year, because the Lib Dems will | :09:19. | :09:22. | |
probably hold on to more seats than we predict from the national figures | :09:23. | :09:27. | |
and I think fewer Tory seats will go to the Labour Party than you would | :09:28. | :09:31. | |
predict from the national figures. The precise numbers, I'm not going | :09:32. | :09:36. | |
to be too precise, but I would be surprised, sorry, I would not be | :09:37. | :09:42. | |
surprised if Labour fell 20 or 5 seats short on what we would expect | :09:43. | :09:48. | |
on the uniform swing prediction Next year's election will be tight. | :09:49. | :09:52. | |
Falling 20 seats short could well mean the difference between victory | :09:53. | :09:57. | |
and defeat. What you make of that, Helen? I think you're right, | :09:58. | :10:01. | |
especially taking into account the UKIP effect. We have no idea about | :10:02. | :10:06. | |
that. The conventional wisdom is that will drain away back to the | :10:07. | :10:07. | |
Conservatives, but nobody knows, that will drain away back to the | :10:08. | :10:09. | |
Conservatives, but nobody knows and Conservatives, but nobody knows, and | :10:10. | :10:12. | |
it makes the next election almost impossible to call. It means it is a | :10:13. | :10:16. | |
great target the people like Lord Ashcroft with marginal polling, | :10:17. | :10:19. | |
because people have never been so interested. It is for party politics | :10:20. | :10:24. | |
and we all assume that UKIP should be well next year, but their vote | :10:25. | :10:31. | |
went up from 17 up to 27%. Then that 17% went down to 3%, so they might | :10:32. | :10:36. | |
only be five or 6% in the general election, so they might not have the | :10:37. | :10:39. | |
threat of depriving Conservatives of their seats. Where the incumbency | :10:40. | :10:44. | |
thing has an effect is the Liberal Democrats. They have fortress seats | :10:45. | :10:50. | |
where between 1992 and 1997 Liberal Democrats seats fell, but their | :10:51. | :10:54. | |
percentage went up. They are losing the local government base though. | :10:55. | :10:58. | |
True, but having people like Ming Campbell standing down means they | :10:59. | :11:02. | |
will struggle. We are used to incumbency being an important factor | :11:03. | :11:05. | |
in American politics. It's hard to get rid of an incumbent unless it is | :11:06. | :11:10. | |
a primary election, like we saw in Virginia, but is it now becoming an | :11:11. | :11:14. | |
important factor in British politics, that if you own the seat | :11:15. | :11:18. | |
you're more likely to hold on to it than not? If it is, that's a | :11:19. | :11:23. | |
remarkable thing. It's hard to be a carpetbagger in America, but it is | :11:24. | :11:26. | |
normal in British Parliamentary constituencies to be represented by | :11:27. | :11:30. | |
someone who did not grow up locally. It is a special kind of achievement | :11:31. | :11:34. | |
to have an incumbency effect where you don't have deep roots in the | :11:35. | :11:37. | |
constituency. I was going to ask about the Lib Dems. If we are wrong, | :11:38. | :11:41. | |
and they collapse in Parliamentary representation as much as the share | :11:42. | :11:44. | |
in vote collapses, is that not good news is that the Conservatives? They | :11:45. | :11:49. | |
would be in second place in the majority of existing Lib Dems seats. | :11:50. | :11:53. | |
For every seat where Labour are second to the Lib Dems, there are | :11:54. | :11:56. | |
two where the Conservatives are second. If the Lib Dem | :11:57. | :12:00. | |
representation collapses, that helps the Conservatives. I'm assuming the | :12:01. | :12:08. | |
Tories will gain about ten seats. If they gain 20, if they'd had 20 more | :12:09. | :12:13. | |
seats last time, they would have had a majority government, just about. | :12:14. | :12:17. | |
So 20 seats off the Lib Dem, do the maths, as they say in America, and | :12:18. | :12:22. | |
they could lose a handful to labour and still be able to run a one | :12:23. | :12:26. | |
party, minority government. The fate of the Lib Dems could be crucial to | :12:27. | :12:29. | |
the outcome to the politics of light. On the 8th of May, it will be | :12:30. | :12:36. | |
VE Day and victory in election day as well as Europe. The Lib Dems will | :12:37. | :12:41. | |
be apoplectic if they lose all of the seats to their coalition | :12:42. | :12:46. | |
partners. The great quote by Angela Merkel, the little party always gets | :12:47. | :12:51. | |
crushed. It's a well-established idea that coalition politics. They | :12:52. | :12:54. | |
can't take credit for the things people like you may get lumbered | :12:55. | :12:57. | |
with the ones they don't. They have contributed most of this terrible | :12:58. | :13:01. | |
idea that seized politics where you say it, but you don't deliver it. | :13:02. | :13:04. | |
Tuition fees is the classic example of this Parliament. Why should you | :13:05. | :13:10. | |
believe any promise you make? And Ed Miliband is feeling that as well. | :13:11. | :13:14. | |
But in 1974 the liberal Democrats barely had any MPs but there were | :13:15. | :13:19. | |
reporters outside Jeremy Thorpe's home because they potentially held | :13:20. | :13:22. | |
not the balance of power, but were significantly in fourth. Bringing | :13:23. | :13:26. | |
back memories Jeremy Thorpe, and we will leave it there. Thanks to the | :13:27. | :13:30. | |
panel. We are tomorrow on BBC Two. At the earlier time of 11am because | :13:31. | :13:34. | |
of Wimbledon. Yes, it's that time of year again already. I will be back | :13:35. | :13:39. | |
here at 11 o'clock next week. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the | :13:40. | :13:42. | |
Sunday Politics. | :13:43. | :13:46. |