18/12/2016 Sunday Politics South East


18/12/2016

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LineFromTo

Morning, folks, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.

:00:39.:00:39.

Hard line remainers strike back at Brexit.

:00:40.:00:42.

Are they trying to overturn the result of June's referendum

:00:43.:00:44.

by forcing a second vote before we leave?

:00:45.:00:47.

Australia's man in London tells us that life outside the EU "can be

:00:48.:00:50.

pretty good" and that Brexit will "not be as hard as people say".

:00:51.:00:55.

Could leaving the EU free Britain to do more business

:00:56.:00:57.

It's been called "disgusting, dangerous and deadly"

:00:58.:01:03.

but how polluted is our air, how bad for our health,

:01:04.:01:06.

And with me in the Sunday Politics grotto, the Dasher, Dancer

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and Prancer of political punditry Iain Martin,

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They'll be delivering tweets throughout the programme.

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First this morning, some say they will fight

:01:42.:01:47.

for what they call a "soft Brexit", but now there's an attempt by those

:01:48.:01:50.

who campaigned for Britain to remain in the EU to allow the British

:01:51.:01:53.

people to change their minds - possibly with a second referendum -

:01:54.:01:56.

The Labour MEP Richard Corbett is revealed this morning to have

:01:57.:02:00.

tried to amend European Parliament resolutions.

:02:01.:02:02.

The original resolution called on the European Parliament

:02:03.:02:05.

to "respect the will of the majority of the citizens

:02:06.:02:08.

of the United Kingdom to leave the EU".

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He also proposed removing the wording "stress that this wish

:02:24.:02:28.

must be respected" and adding "while taking account of the 48.1%

:02:29.:02:31.

The amendments were proposed in October,

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but were rejected by a vote in the Brussels

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Constitutional Affairs Committee earlier this month.

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The report will be voted on by all MEPs in February.

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Well, joining me now from Leeds is the Labour MEP who proposed

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Good morning. Thanks for joining us at short notice. Is your aim to try

:02:55.:03:03.

and reverse what happened on June 23? My aim with those amendments was

:03:04.:03:08.

simply factual. It is rather odd that these amendments of two months

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ago are suddenly used paper headlines in three very different

:03:13.:03:18.

newspapers on the same day. It smacks of a sort of concerted effort

:03:19.:03:24.

to try and slapped down any notion that Britain might perhaps want to

:03:25.:03:29.

rethink its position on Brexit as the cost of Brexit emerges. You

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would like us to rethink the position even before the cost urges?

:03:35.:03:40.

I get lots of letters from people saying how one, this was an advisory

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referendum won by a narrow majority on the basis of a pack of lies and a

:03:45.:03:51.

questionable mandate. But if there is a mandate from this referendum,

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it is surely to secure a Brexit that works for Britain without sinking

:03:55.:03:58.

the economy. And if it transpires as we move forward, that this will be a

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very costly exercise, then there will be people who voted leave who

:04:03.:04:06.

said Hang on, this is not what I was told. I was told this would save

:04:07.:04:11.

money, we could put it in the NHS, but if it is going to cost us and

:04:12.:04:13.

our Monday leg, I would the right to reconsider. But

:04:14.:04:30.

your aim is not get a Brexit that would work for Britain, your aim is

:04:31.:04:34.

to stop it? If we got a Brexit that would work for Britain, that would

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respect the mandate. But if we cannot get that, if it is going to

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be a disaster, if it is going to cost people jobs and cost Britain

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money, it is something we might want to pause and rethink. The government

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said it is going to come forward with a plan. That is good. We need

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to know what options to go for as a country. Do we want to stay in the

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single market, the customs union, the various agencies? And options

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should be costed so we can all see how much they cost of Brexit will

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be. If you were simply going to try and make the resolution is more

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illegal, why did the constitutional committee vote them down? This is a

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report about future treaty amendments down the road for years

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to come. This was not the main focus of the report, it was a side

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reference, in which was put the idea for Association partnerships. Will

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you push for the idea before the full parliament? I must see what the

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text is. You said there is a widespread view in labour that if

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the Brexit view is bad we should not exclude everything, I take it you

:05:55.:05:57.

mean another referendum. When you were named down these amendments,

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was this just acting on your own initiative, or acting on behalf of

:06:06.:06:09.

the Labour Party? I am just be humble lame-duck MEP in the European

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Parliament. It makes sense from any point of view that if the course of

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action you have embarked on turns out to be much more costly and

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disastrous than you had anticipated, that you might want the chance to

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think again. You might come to the same conclusion, of course, but you

:06:30.:06:34.

might think, wait a minute, let's have a look at this. But let's be

:06:35.:06:40.

clear, even though you are deputy leader of Labour in the European

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Parliament, you're acting alone and not as Labour Party policy? I am

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acting in the constitutional affairs committee. All I am doing is stating

:06:52.:06:56.

things which are common sense. If as we move forward then this turns out

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to be a disaster, we need to look very carefully at where we are

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going. But if a deal is done under Article 50, and we get to see the

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shape of that deal by the end of 2019 under the two-year timetable,

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in your words, we won't know if it is a disaster or not until it is

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implemented. We won't be able to tell until we see the results about

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whether it is good or bad, surely? We might well be able to, because

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that has to take account of the future framework of relationships

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with the European Union, to quote the article of the treaty. That

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means we should have some idea about what that will be like. Will we be

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outside the customs union, for instance, which will be very

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damaging for our economy? Or will we have to stay inside and follow the

:07:50.:07:54.

rules without having a say on them. We won't know until we leave the

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customs union. You think it will be damaging, others think it will give

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us the opportunity to do massive trade deals. My case this morning is

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not what is right or wrong, we will not know until we have seen the

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results. We will know a heck of a lot more than we do now when we see

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that Article 50 divorce agreement. We will know the terms of the

:08:15.:08:17.

divorce, we will know how much we still have to pay into the EU budget

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for legacy costs. We will know whether we will be in the single

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market customs union or not. We will know about the agencies. We will

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know a lot of things. If the deal on the table looks as if it will be

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damaging to Britain, then Parliament will be in its rights to say, wait a

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minute, not this deal. And then you either renegotiate or you reconsider

:08:42.:08:44.

the whole issue of Brexit or you find another solution. We need to

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leave it there but thank you for joining us.

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Iain Martin, how serious is the attempt to in effect an wind what

:08:55.:09:01.

happened on June 23? I think it is pretty serious and that interview

:09:02.:09:05.

illustrates very well the most damaging impact of the approach

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taken by a lot of Remainers, which is essentially to say with one

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breath, we of course accept the result, but with every action

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subsequent to that to try and undermine the result or try and are

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sure that the deal is as bad as possible. I think what needed to

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happen and hasn't happened after June 23 is you have the extremists

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on both sides and you have in the middle probably 70% of public

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opinion, moderate leaders, moderate Remainers should be working together

:09:39.:09:44.

to try and get British bespoke deal. But moderate Leavers will not take

:09:45.:09:52.

moderate Remainers seriously if this is the approach taken at every

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single turn to try and rerun the referendum. He did not say whether

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it was Labour policy? That was a question which was ducked. I do not

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think it is Labour Party policy. I think most people are in a morass in

:10:11.:10:16.

the middle. I think the screaming that happens when anybody dares to

:10:17.:10:19.

question or suggest that you might ever want to think again about these

:10:20.:10:24.

things, I disagree with him about having another referendum but if he

:10:25.:10:28.

wants to campaign for that it is his democratic right to do so. If you

:10:29.:10:32.

can convince enough people it is a good idea then he has succeeded. But

:10:33.:10:37.

the idea that we would do a deal and then realise this is a really bad

:10:38.:10:42.

deal, let's not proceed, we will not really know that until the deal is

:10:43.:10:49.

implemented. What our access is to the single market, whether or not we

:10:50.:10:53.

are in or out of the customs union which we will talk about in a

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minute, what immigration policy we will have, whether these are going

:10:58.:11:02.

to be good things bad things, surely you have got to wait for four, five,

:11:03.:11:06.

six years to see if it has worked or not? Yes, and by which stage

:11:07.:11:10.

Parliament will have voted on it and there will be no going back from it,

:11:11.:11:14.

or maybe there will. We are talking now about the first three months of

:11:15.:11:20.

2019. That is absolutely the moment when Parliament agrees with Theresa

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May or not. One arch remain I spoke to, and arch Remainiac, he said that

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Theresa May will bring this to Parliament in 2019 and could say I

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recommend that we reject it. What is he on or she? Some strong chemical

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drugs! The point is that all manner of things could happen. I don't

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think any of us take it seriously for now but the future is a very

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long way away. Earlier, the trade Secretary Liam Fox was asked if we

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would stay in the customs union after Brexit.

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There would be limitations on what we would do in terms of tariff

:12:11.:12:16.

setting which could limit the deals we would do, but we want to look at

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all the different deals. There is hard Brexit and soft Brexit as if it

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is a boiled egg we are talking about. Turkey is in part of the

:12:27.:12:31.

customs union but not other parts. What we need to do is look at the

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cost. This is what I picked up. The government knows it cannot remain a

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member of the single market in these negotiations, because that would

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make us subject to free movement and the European Court. The customs

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union and the Prime Minister 's office doesn't seem to be quite as

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binary, that you can be a little bit in and a little bit out, but I would

:12:56.:12:59.

suggest that overall Liam Fox knows to do all the trade deals we want to

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do we basically have to be out. But what he also seems to know is that

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is a minority view in Cabinet. He said he was not going to give his

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opinion publicly. There is still an argument going on about it in

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Cabinet. When David Liddington struggled against Emily Thornbury

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PMQs, he did not know about the customs union. What is apparent is

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Theresa May has not told him what to think about that. If we stay in the

:13:30.:13:36.

customs union we cannot do our own free trade deals. We are behind the

:13:37.:13:43.

customs union, the tariff barriers set by Europe? Not quite. Turkey is

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proof of the pudding. There are limited exemptions but they can do

:13:48.:13:52.

free trade with their neighbours. Not on goods. They are doing a trade

:13:53.:14:00.

deal with Pakistan at the moment, it relies on foreign trade investment

:14:01.:14:04.

but Europe negotiates on turkey's behalf on the major free-trade

:14:05.:14:08.

deals. This is absolutely why the customs union will be the fault line

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for the deal we are trying to achieve. Interestingly, I thought

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Liam Fox suggested during that interview that he was prepared to

:14:17.:14:21.

suck up whatever it was. I think he was saying there is still an

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argument and he intends to win it. He wants to leave it because he

:14:27.:14:34.

wants to do these free-trade deals. There is an argument in the cabinet

:14:35.:14:39.

about precisely that. The other thing to consider is in this country

:14:40.:14:44.

we have tended to focus too much on the British angle in negotiations,

:14:45.:14:48.

but I think the negotiations are going to be very difficult. You look

:14:49.:14:51.

at the state of the EU at the moment, you look at what is

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happening in Italy, France, Germany, look at the 27. It is possible I

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think that Britain could design a bespoke sensible deal but then it

:15:03.:15:06.

becomes very difficult to agree which is why I ultimately think we

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are heading for a harder Brexit. It will be about developing in this

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country. So, we've had a warning this week

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that it could take ten years to do a trade deal

:15:20.:15:22.

with the EU after Brexit. But could opportunities to expand

:15:23.:15:25.

trade lie elsewhere? Australia was one of the first

:15:26.:15:27.

countries to indicate its willingness to do a deal

:15:28.:15:29.

with the UK and now its High Commissioner in London has told

:15:30.:15:32.

us that life outside the EU He made this exclusive film

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for the Sunday Politics. My father was the Australian High

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Commissioner in the early 70s when the UK joined

:15:51.:15:53.

the European Union, Now I'm in the job,

:15:54.:15:55.

the UK is leaving. Australia supported

:15:56.:16:03.

Britain remaining a member of the European Union,

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but we respect the decision that Now that the decision has been made,

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we hope that Britain will get on with the process

:16:09.:16:14.

of negotiating their exit from the European Union and make

:16:15.:16:18.

the most of the opportunities that Following the referendum decision,

:16:19.:16:21.

Australia approached the British Government

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with a proposal. We offered, when the time was right,

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to negotiate a free trade agreement. The British and Australian

:16:31.:16:33.

governments have already established a working group to explore a future,

:16:34.:16:40.

ambitious trade agreement once A free trade agreement will provide

:16:41.:16:42.

great opportunities for consumers Australian consumers could purchase

:16:43.:16:55.

British-made cars for less We would give British

:16:56.:17:00.

households access to cheaper, Our summer is during your winter,

:17:01.:17:06.

so Australia could provide British households with fresh produce

:17:07.:17:11.

when the equivalent British or Australian households would have

:17:12.:17:15.

access to British products Free-trade agreements

:17:16.:17:22.

are also about investment. The UK is the second-largest source

:17:23.:17:35.

of foreign investment in Australia. By the way, Australia also invests

:17:36.:17:39.

over ?200 billion in the UK, so a free trade agreement

:17:40.:17:45.

would stimulate investment, But, by the way, free-trade

:17:46.:17:48.

agreements are not just about trade and investment,

:17:49.:17:53.

they are also about geopolitics. Countries with good trade relations

:17:54.:17:57.

often work more closely together in other fields including security,

:17:58.:18:01.

the spread of democracy We may have preferred

:18:02.:18:05.

the UKto remain in the EU, We may have preferred the UK

:18:06.:18:19.

to remain in the EU, but life outside as we know can

:18:20.:18:21.

be pretty good. We have negotiated eight free-trade

:18:22.:18:24.

agreements over the last 12 years, including a free-trade agreement

:18:25.:18:26.

with the United States This is one of the reasons why

:18:27.:18:28.

the Australian economy has continued to grow over the last 25 years

:18:29.:18:40.

and we, of course, are not Australia welcomes Theresa May's

:18:41.:18:43.

vision for the UK to become a global We are willing to help

:18:44.:18:53.

in any way we can. Welcome to the programme. The

:18:54.:19:23.

Australian government says it wants to negotiate an important trade deal

:19:24.:19:27.

with the UK as efficiently and promptly as possible when Brexit is

:19:28.:19:33.

complete. How prompt is prompt? There are legal issues obviously.

:19:34.:19:38.

The UK, for as long as it remains in the EU, cannot negotiate individual

:19:39.:19:43.

trade deals. Once it leaves it can. We will negotiate a agreement with

:19:44.:19:48.

the UK when the time is right, by which we mean we can do preliminary

:19:49.:19:54.

examination. Are you talking now about the parameters? We are talking

:19:55.:19:59.

already, we have set up a joint working group with the British

:20:00.:20:02.

Government and we are scoping the issue to try to understand what

:20:03.:20:05.

questions will arise in any negotiation. But we cannot have

:20:06.:20:12.

formally a negotiation. Until the country is out. Why is there no

:20:13.:20:18.

free-trade deal between Australia and the European Union? It is a long

:20:19.:20:22.

and tortuous story. Give me the headline. Basically Australian

:20:23.:20:28.

agriculture is either banned or hugely restricted in terms of its

:20:29.:20:34.

access to the European Union. So we see the European Union, Australia's,

:20:35.:20:38.

is a pretty protectionist sort of organisation. Now we are doing a

:20:39.:20:44.

scoping study on a free-trade agreement with the European Union

:20:45.:20:48.

and we hope that next year we can enter into negotiations with them.

:20:49.:20:53.

But we have no illusions this would be a very difficult negotiation, but

:20:54.:20:58.

one we are giving priority to. Is there not a danger that when Britain

:20:59.:21:03.

leaves the EU the EU will become more protectionist? This country has

:21:04.:21:08.

always been the most powerful voice for free trade. I hope that does not

:21:09.:21:12.

happen, but the reason why we wanted Britain to remain in the European

:21:13.:21:18.

Union is because it brought to the table the whole free-trade mentality

:21:19.:21:24.

which has been an historic part of Britain's approach to international

:21:25.:21:27.

relations. Without the UK in the European Union you will lose that.

:21:28.:21:32.

It is a very loud voice in the European Union and you will lose

:21:33.:21:35.

that voice and that will be a disadvantage. The figure that jumped

:21:36.:21:41.

out of me in the film is it to you only 15 months to negotiate a

:21:42.:21:44.

free-trade deal with the United States. Yes, the thing is it is

:21:45.:21:50.

about political will. A free-trade agreement will be no problem unless

:21:51.:21:55.

you want to protect particular sectors of your economy. In that

:21:56.:22:00.

case there was one sector the Americans insisted on protecting and

:22:01.:22:05.

that was their sugar industry. In the end after 15 months of

:22:06.:22:09.

negotiation two relatively free trading countries have fixed up

:22:10.:22:15.

nearly everything. But we had to ask would be go ahead with this

:22:16.:22:19.

free-trade agreement without sugar west we decided to do that. Other

:22:20.:22:24.

than that it was relatively easy to negotiate because we are both

:22:25.:22:28.

free-trade countries. With the UK you cannot be sure, but I do not

:22:29.:22:32.

think a free-trade agreement would take very long to negotiate with the

:22:33.:22:37.

UK because the UK would not want to put a lot of obstacles in the way to

:22:38.:22:42.

Australia. Not to give away our hand, we would not want to put a lot

:22:43.:22:46.

of obstacles in the way of British exports. The trend in recent years

:22:47.:22:53.

is to do big, regional trade deals, but President-elect Donald Trump has

:22:54.:22:57.

made clear the Pacific trade deal is dead. The transatlantic trade deal

:22:58.:23:02.

is almost dead as well. The American election put a nail in the coffin

:23:03.:23:06.

and the French elections could put another nail in the coffin. Are we

:23:07.:23:12.

returning to a world of lateral trade deals, country with country

:23:13.:23:15.

rather than regional blocs? Not necessarily. In the Asia Pacific we

:23:16.:23:23.

will look at multilateral trade arrangements and even if the

:23:24.:23:26.

transpacific partnership is not ratified by the Americans, we have

:23:27.:23:30.

other options are there. However, our approach has been the ultimate

:23:31.:23:35.

would be free-trade throughout the world which is proving hard to

:23:36.:23:41.

achieve. Secondly, if we can get a lot of countries engaged in a

:23:42.:23:44.

free-trade negotiation, that is pretty good if possible. But it is

:23:45.:23:51.

more difficult. But we do bilateral trade agreements. We have one with

:23:52.:23:56.

China, Japan, the United States, Singapore, and the list goes on, and

:23:57.:24:00.

they have been hugely beneficial to Australia. You have been dealing

:24:01.:24:08.

with the EU free deal, what lessons are there? How quickly do you think

:24:09.:24:12.

Britain could do a free-trade deal with the EU if we leave? Well, there

:24:13.:24:19.

is a completely different concept involved in the case of Britain and

:24:20.:24:23.

the EU and that is at the moment there are no restrictions on trade.

:24:24.:24:28.

So you and the EU would be talking about whether you will direct

:24:29.:24:32.

barriers to trade. We are outsiders and we do not get too much involved

:24:33.:24:37.

in this debate except to say we do not want to see the global trade

:24:38.:24:44.

system disrupted by the direction of tariff barriers between the United

:24:45.:24:48.

Kingdom, the fifth biggest economy in the world, and the European

:24:49.:24:53.

Union. Our expectation is not just the British but the Europeans will

:24:54.:24:58.

try to make the transition to Brexit as smooth as possible particularly

:24:59.:25:03.

commercially. Say yes or no if you can. If Britain and Australia make a

:25:04.:25:07.

free-trade agreement, would that include free movement of the

:25:08.:25:11.

Australian and the British people? We will probably stick with our

:25:12.:25:18.

present non-discriminatory system. Australia does not discriminate

:25:19.:25:21.

against any country. The European Union's free movement means you

:25:22.:25:26.

discriminate against non-Europeans. Probably not.

:25:27.:25:30.

It could lead to a ban on diesel cars, prevent the building

:25:31.:25:33.

of a third runway at Heathrow, and will certainly make it

:25:34.:25:36.

more expensive to drive in our towns and cities.

:25:37.:25:38.

Air pollution has been called the "public health crisis

:25:39.:25:40.

of a generation" - but just how serious is the problem?

:25:41.:25:43.

40,000 early deaths result from air pollution every year in the UK.

:25:44.:25:56.

Almost 10,000 Londoners each year die prematurely.

:25:57.:26:03.

It seems at times we can get caught up in alarming assertions

:26:04.:26:09.

about air pollution, that this is a public health

:26:10.:26:11.

emergency, that it is a silent killer, coming from politicians,

:26:12.:26:15.

But how bad is air quality in Britain really?

:26:16.:26:23.

Tony Frew is a professor in respiratory medicine and works

:26:24.:26:27.

at Brighton's Royal Sussex County Hospital.

:26:28.:26:29.

He has been looking into the recent claims

:26:30.:26:31.

It's a problem and it affects people's health.

:26:32.:26:37.

But when people start talking about the numbers

:26:38.:26:40.

of deaths here, I think they are misusing the statistics.

:26:41.:26:42.

There have been tremendous improvements in air quality

:26:43.:26:47.

There is a lot less pollution than there used to be

:26:48.:26:52.

and none of that is coming through in the public

:26:53.:26:55.

So what does Professor Frew make of the claim that alarming levels

:26:56.:26:59.

of toxicity in the air in the UK causes 40,000 deaths each year?

:27:00.:27:03.

It is not 40,000 people who should have air pollution

:27:04.:27:05.

on their death certificate, or 40,000 people who

:27:06.:27:07.

It's a lot of people who had a little bit of life shortening

:27:08.:27:12.

To examine these figures further we travelled to Cambridge to visit

:27:13.:27:18.

I asked him about the data on which these claims

:27:19.:27:23.

They come from a study on how mortality rates in US cities

:27:24.:27:28.

First of all, it is important to realise that that 40,000 figure

:27:29.:27:35.

29,000, which are due to fine particles, and another 11,000

:27:36.:27:41.

I will just talk about this group for a start.

:27:42.:27:49.

These are what are known as attributable deaths.

:27:50.:27:53.

Known as virtual deaths, they come from a complex statistical model.

:27:54.:27:57.

Quite remarkably it all comes from just one number and this

:27:58.:28:01.

was based on a study of US cities and they found out that

:28:02.:28:05.

by monitoring these cities over decades that the cities which had

:28:06.:28:09.

a higher level of pollution had a higher mortality rate.

:28:10.:28:15.

They estimated that there was a 6% increased risk of dying

:28:16.:28:20.

each year for each small increase in pollution.

:28:21.:28:25.

So this is quite a big figure, but it is important to realise

:28:26.:28:28.

it is only a best estimate and the committee that advises

:28:29.:28:32.

the government says that this figure could be between 1% and 12%.

:28:33.:28:38.

So this 6% figure is used to work out the 29,000

:28:39.:28:41.

Yes, through a rather complex statistical model.

:28:42.:28:46.

And a similar analysis gives rise to the 11,000 attributable deaths

:28:47.:28:51.

How much should we invest in cycling?

:28:52.:28:58.

Should we build a third runway at Heathrow?

:28:59.:29:01.

We need reliable statistics to answer those questions,

:29:02.:29:05.

but can we trust the way data is being used by campaigners?

:29:06.:29:09.

I think there are people who have such a passion for the environment

:29:10.:29:14.

and for air pollution that they don't really

:29:15.:29:16.

see it as a problem if they are deceiving the public.

:29:17.:29:22.

Greenpeace have been running a campaign claiming that breathing

:29:23.:29:24.

London's air is the equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day.

:29:25.:29:27.

If you smoke 15 cigarettes a day through your adult life,

:29:28.:29:32.

that will definitely take ten years off your life expectancy.

:29:33.:29:35.

If you are poor and you are in social class five,

:29:36.:29:37.

compared to social class one, that would take seven

:29:38.:29:39.

If you are poor and you smoke, that will take 17 years off your life.

:29:40.:29:44.

Now, we are talking about possibly, if we could get rid of all

:29:45.:29:47.

of the cars in London and all of the road transport,

:29:48.:29:50.

we could make a difference of two micrograms per metre squared in air

:29:51.:29:53.

pollution which might save you 30 days of your life.

:29:54.:29:59.

There is no doubt that air pollution is bad for you,

:30:00.:30:01.

but if we exaggerate the scale of the problem and the impact

:30:02.:30:04.

on our health, are we at risk of undermining the case for making

:30:05.:30:08.

And we are joined now by the Executive Director

:30:09.:30:18.

You have called pollution and national crisis and a health

:30:19.:30:36.

emergency. Around the UK are levels increasing or falling? They are

:30:37.:30:40.

remaining fairly static in London. Nationally? If you look at the

:30:41.:30:50.

studies on where air pollution is measured, in 42 cities around the

:30:51.:30:56.

UK, 38 cities were found to be breaking the legal limit on air

:30:57.:31:00.

pollution so basically all of the cities were breaking the limit so if

:31:01.:31:05.

you think eight out of ten people live in cities, obviously, this is

:31:06.:31:08.

impacting a lot of people around the UK. We have looked at in missions of

:31:09.:31:13.

solvent dioxide, they have fallen and since 1970, nitrogen dioxide is

:31:14.:31:23.

down 69%. Let me show you a chart. There are the nitrogen oxides which

:31:24.:31:29.

we have all been worried about. That chart shows a substantial fall from

:31:30.:31:34.

the 1970s, and then a really steep fall from the 1980s. That is

:31:35.:31:39.

something which is getting better. You have to look at it in the round.

:31:40.:31:46.

If you look at particulates, and if you look at today's understanding of

:31:47.:31:53.

the health impact. Let's look at particulates. We have been really

:31:54.:32:02.

worried about what they have been doing to our abilities to breathe

:32:03.:32:07.

good air, again, you see substantial improvement. Indeed, we are not far

:32:08.:32:12.

from the Gothenberg level which is a very high standard. What you see is

:32:13.:32:21.

it is pretty flat. I see it coming down quite substantially. Over the

:32:22.:32:26.

last decade it is pretty flat. If you look at the World Health

:32:27.:32:30.

Organisation guidelines, actually, these are at serious levels and they

:32:31.:32:34.

need to come down. We know the impact, particularly on children, if

:32:35.:32:38.

you look at what is happening to children and children's lungs, if

:32:39.:32:42.

you look at the impact of asthma and other impacts on children in cities

:32:43.:32:48.

and in schools next to main roads where pollution levels are very

:32:49.:32:51.

high, the impact of very serious. You have many doctors, professors

:32:52.:32:55.

and many studies by London University showing this to be true.

:32:56.:33:01.

The thing is, we do not want pollution. If we can get rid of

:33:02.:33:05.

pollution, let's do it. And also we also have to get rid of CO2 which is

:33:06.:33:10.

causing climate change. We are talking air pollution at the moment.

:33:11.:33:14.

The point is there is not still more to do, it is clear there is and

:33:15.:33:19.

there is no question about that, my question is you seem to deny that we

:33:20.:33:24.

have made any kind of progress and that you also say that air pollution

:33:25.:33:28.

causes 40,000 deaths a year in the UK, that is not true. The figure is

:33:29.:33:35.

40,000 premature deaths is what has been talked about by medical staff.

:33:36.:33:45.

Your website said courses. It causes premature deaths. What we are

:33:46.:33:50.

talking about here is can we solve the problem of air pollution? If air

:33:51.:33:55.

pollution is mainly being caused by diesel vehicles then we need to

:33:56.:33:59.

phase out diesel vehicles. If there are alternatives and clean Turner

:34:00.:34:03.

tips which will give better quality of air, better quality of life and

:34:04.:34:06.

clean up our cities, then why don't we take the chance to do it? You had

:34:07.:34:10.

the Australian High Commissioner on this programme earlier. He said to

:34:11.:34:18.

me earlier, why is your government supporting diesel? That is the most

:34:19.:34:24.

polluting form of transport. That may well be right but I am looking

:34:25.:34:29.

at Greenpeace's claims. You claim it causes 40,000 deaths, it is a figure

:34:30.:34:35.

which regularly appears. Let me quote the committee on the medical

:34:36.:34:41.

effects of air pollutants, it says this calculation, 40,000 which is

:34:42.:34:50.

everywhere in Greenpeace literature, is not an estimate of the number of

:34:51.:34:54.

people whose untimely death is caused entirely by air pollution,

:34:55.:34:58.

but a way of representing the effect across the whole population of air

:34:59.:35:02.

pollution when considered as a contributory factor to many more

:35:03.:35:08.

individual deaths. It is 40,000 premature deaths. It could be

:35:09.:35:17.

premature by a couple of days. It could me by a year. -- it could be

:35:18.:35:21.

by a year. It could also be giving children asthma and breathing

:35:22.:35:23.

difficulties. We are talking about deaths. It could also cause stroke

:35:24.:35:32.

and heart diseases. Medical experts say we need to deal with this. Do

:35:33.:35:40.

you believe air pollution causes 40,000 deaths a year. I have defined

:35:41.:35:48.

that. You accept it does not? It leads to 40,000 premature deaths.

:35:49.:35:58.

But 40,000 people are not killed. You say air pollution causes 40,000

:35:59.:36:03.

deaths each year on your website. I have just explained what I mean by

:36:04.:36:07.

that in terms of premature deaths. The question is, are we going to do

:36:08.:36:12.

something about that? Air pollution is a serious problem. It is mainly

:36:13.:36:16.

caused by diesel. If we phased diesel out it will solve the problem

:36:17.:36:21.

of air pollution and deal with the wider problem of climate change. I

:36:22.:36:25.

am not talking about climate change this morning. Let's link to another

:36:26.:36:33.

claim... Do you want to live in a clean city? Do you want to breathe

:36:34.:36:39.

clean air? Yes, don't generalise. Let's stick to your claims. You have

:36:40.:36:44.

also said living in London on your life is equivalent to smoking 50

:36:45.:36:48.

cigarettes a day. That is not true either. What I would say is if you

:36:49.:36:55.

look at passive smoking, it is the equivalent of I don't know what the

:36:56.:36:58.

actual figure is, I can't remember offhand, but it is the equivalent

:36:59.:37:02.

effect of about ten cigarettes being smoked passively. The question is in

:37:03.:37:08.

terms of, you are just throwing me out all of these things... I am

:37:09.:37:14.

throwing things that Greenpeace have claimed. Greenpeace have claimed

:37:15.:37:18.

that living in London is equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day and

:37:19.:37:22.

that takes ten years off your life. Professor Froome made it clear to us

:37:23.:37:26.

that living in London your whole life with levels of pollution does

:37:27.:37:30.

take time off your life but it takes nine months of your life. Nine

:37:31.:37:35.

months is still too much, I understand that, but it is not ten

:37:36.:37:39.

years and that is what you claim. I would suggest you realise that is a

:37:40.:37:42.

piece of propaganda because you claim on the website, you have taken

:37:43.:37:48.

it down. I agree it has been corrected and I agree with what the

:37:49.:37:51.

professor said that maybe it takes up to a year off your life, but the

:37:52.:37:56.

thing is, there are much more wider issues as well, in terms of the

:37:57.:38:00.

impact on air pollution, and in terms of the impact on young

:38:01.:38:06.

children. We can argue about the facts... But these are your claims,

:38:07.:38:11.

this is why I am hitting it to you. It does not get away from the

:38:12.:38:15.

underlying issue that air pollution is a serious problem. We are not

:38:16.:38:20.

arguing for a moment that it is not. Do you think the way you exaggerate

:38:21.:38:24.

things, put false claims, in the end, for of course we all agree

:38:25.:38:29.

with, getting the best air we can, you undermine your credibility? I

:38:30.:38:35.

absolutely do not support false claims and if mistakes have been

:38:36.:38:38.

made then mistakes have been made and they will be corrected. I think

:38:39.:38:44.

the key issue is how we are going to deal with air pollution. Clearly,

:38:45.:38:48.

diesel is the biggest problem and we need to work out a way how we can

:38:49.:38:54.

get away from diesel as quickly and fast as possible. Comeback and see

:38:55.:38:57.

us in the New Year and we will discuss diesel. Thank you.

:38:58.:39:00.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:39:01.:39:02.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:39:03.:39:13.

I'm Julia George and this is the Sunday Politics

:39:14.:39:16.

Coming up later: Hanging out at the youth club -

:39:17.:39:19.

but might these teenagers soon be hanging out on the street?

:39:20.:39:22.

We'll take a look at proposals in Brighton and Hove to drastically

:39:23.:39:24.

cut the money that goes to youth services.

:39:25.:39:27.

Joining me today to discuss this and other stories are the Labour

:39:28.:39:30.

leader of Brighton and Hove City council, Warren Morgan.

:39:31.:39:32.

And Tim Loughton - Conservative MP for neighbouring

:39:33.:39:35.

Let's start with an update on Southern Trains.

:39:36.:39:41.

And the worst rail disruption in 20 years.

:39:42.:39:43.

For three days this week, the rolling stock stood

:39:44.:39:45.

still as drivers from the Aslef union walked out.

:39:46.:39:48.

Transport Secretary Chris Grayling insists the Government doesn't

:39:49.:39:49.

have the power to step in and has hinted at a change in the law that

:39:50.:39:53.

could make this kind of industrial action more difficult in the future.

:39:54.:39:56.

The government needs to step in and resolve it because it's

:39:57.:40:10.

It's absolutely disgraceful and I think the PM needs to get

:40:11.:40:15.

involved because people are losing jobs and it is completely

:40:16.:40:18.

I don't really get the point of us of it any more.

:40:19.:40:24.

It's really aggravating and something needs to be done

:40:25.:40:26.

Again, ruined my journey to work so now I have to find

:40:27.:40:31.

What's the impact, would you say, on your constituents?

:40:32.:40:40.

This is the biggest single issue any MP in Sussex and South London

:40:41.:40:44.

Daily dozens and dozens of e-mails, tweets of yet another disastrous day

:40:45.:40:49.

I quoted at Prime Minister's Questions on Wednesday a specific

:40:50.:40:55.

case of a constituent on life-saving cancer drug trials who has to get to

:40:56.:40:59.

University College Hospital Who had to leave at the crack of dawn,

:41:00.:41:10.

and expensive taxi that day, just to get to London for that.

:41:11.:41:13.

People are losing their jobs, people are not getting to school

:41:14.:41:15.

and colleges and now we hear that employers are not recruiting people

:41:16.:41:18.

This is a devastating effect on constituents.

:41:19.:41:21.

None of us underestimate the impact of this.

:41:22.:41:23.

Warren Morgan, exactly the same question.

:41:24.:41:25.

In Brighton and Hove, what telling you?

:41:26.:41:26.

They are saying it is affecting our economy.

:41:27.:41:28.

Obviously, we're very reliant on retail, on tourism,

:41:29.:41:30.

They require really good links to London to provide that custom,

:41:31.:41:34.

those links to business and it is having an effect.

:41:35.:41:37.

We'll see some of the figures for that in the coming weeks.

:41:38.:41:40.

Let's talk about the politics of all of this.

:41:41.:41:42.

Your government says it's powerless to intervene, but, increasingly,

:41:43.:41:45.

passengers don't seem to believe that.

:41:46.:41:46.

The group of passengers marched to the Department for Transport this

:41:47.:41:49.

week calling for answers from Chris Grayling.

:41:50.:41:50.

One of them is quoted in the papers as saying,

:41:51.:41:53.

"We are at breaking point if he fails to act.

:41:54.:41:55.

Well, I've been pretty measured in my criticism of the government

:41:56.:42:02.

and the Department for Transport of them management of this and now

:42:03.:42:06.

to the unions who are completely responsible for these unnecessary

:42:07.:42:09.

strikes which are causing such mayhem at the moment.

:42:10.:42:12.

What the government is going to do is look at legislation about making

:42:13.:42:20.

sure this sort of complete disruption, holding hundreds

:42:21.:42:23.

of thousands of commuters to ransom, can't happen in the future.

:42:24.:42:25.

That doesn't do anything for this particular dispute, though, does it?

:42:26.:42:30.

Not immediately, but that legislation could go

:42:31.:42:32.

What the government has also suggested and what I've said

:42:33.:42:36.

all along, frankly this franchise is too big to manage.

:42:37.:42:39.

I do think GTR up to managing it so I think we've got to see a change

:42:40.:42:43.

in our franchise as soon as possible in the New Year.

:42:44.:42:45.

But none of this will get the service back to normal

:42:46.:42:48.

while as left and RMT continue on this crazy strike

:42:49.:42:51.

about whose switches the button for the doors whilst,

:42:52.:42:55.

at the same time, you can travel from London to Brighton on a Thames

:42:56.:43:01.

link train driven by Aslef who operate the doors,

:43:02.:43:03.

calling at the same stations on the same lines.

:43:04.:43:05.

For goodness sake, let's suspend the strike action and talk

:43:06.:43:09.

about any safety concerns, residual it's and get back to some

:43:10.:43:13.

Just to come act to the politics with Warren Morgan for a moment.

:43:14.:43:17.

The Prime Minister is calling on direct

:43:18.:43:19.

She wants Jeremy Corbyn to call up what she referred to as his friends,

:43:20.:43:28.

the rail union bosses, and to get them to call

:43:29.:43:31.

It's quite a shocking abdication of a government's authority when it

:43:32.:43:35.

says it's the opposition that should resolve a strike.

:43:36.:43:38.

When you're elected to office, as I been in Brighton and Hove,

:43:39.:43:40.

you have the responsibility to resolve these kinds of dispute.

:43:41.:43:43.

They should strip Govia Thameslink Rail of their franchise.

:43:44.:43:45.

The Mayor of London has offered to have the service run by transport

:43:46.:43:49.

for London and that would be an interim solution.

:43:50.:43:52.

If the government can't deliver this...

:43:53.:43:54.

They are the ones in power and should take responsibility.

:43:55.:43:57.

If he can't handle it then Chris Grayling should go.

:43:58.:44:00.

The trouble is there is not a queue of people wanting to take on that

:44:01.:44:08.

TFL, for everything you say, is just not big enough to be able

:44:09.:44:15.

to deal with the largest train franchise in the country.

:44:16.:44:18.

And I have no problem with taking the franchise away from them, GTR,

:44:19.:44:22.

but somebody has got to run the railways and it will end up

:44:23.:44:25.

with a Department for Transport running it where everyone

:44:26.:44:27.

is criticising their not fit for purpose.

:44:28.:44:29.

How does this end, for the people watching today who have had enough?

:44:30.:44:33.

Everyone has got to be around the table as they are

:44:34.:44:35.

Then I think the franchise needs to be restructured in the New Year

:44:36.:44:42.

and more investment to sort out the hold-ups.

:44:43.:44:44.

Also, we need to find the rail operators when they're not

:44:45.:44:48.

bringing a decent service and I have a private members bill

:44:49.:44:51.

on Tuesday which is changing the whole conversation system

:44:52.:44:55.

which might give a sense of urgency to GTR that this really has got

:44:56.:45:01.

to be resolved than they need to run a reliable system for the passengers

:45:02.:45:08.

for the passengers that absolutely depend on it for the everyday lives.

:45:09.:45:10.

I hope we are all not talking about it in January.

:45:11.:45:14.

For the rest of today's programme today we're going to look at funding

:45:15.:45:16.

for the oldest and the youngest people in our communities.

:45:17.:45:19.

We've been hearing this week that adult social care is teetering

:45:20.:45:21.

Will it eventually become every family for itself?

:45:22.:45:25.

Are politicians doing anything meaningful to protect the most

:45:26.:45:28.

Well let's examine this week's announcements.

:45:29.:45:30.

The government told local authorities they can bring forward

:45:31.:45:32.

council tax rises over the next two years, and a transfer of ?240

:45:33.:45:35.

Here's the Labour leader speaking at PMQs this week.

:45:36.:45:42.

The Prime Minister doesn't seem to be aware that 4.6 billion was cut

:45:43.:45:45.

from the social care budget in the last Parliament

:45:46.:45:47.

and that her talk of putting it on to local governments

:45:48.:45:50.

2% of council tax is clearly a nonsense.

:45:51.:45:58.

95% of councils used this social care precept and it raised less

:45:59.:46:01.

than 3% of the money they planned to spend on adult social care.

:46:02.:46:09.

We see many councils around the country that have taken

:46:10.:46:12.

the benefit of social care precept and have seen the result

:46:13.:46:15.

of more people accessing social care and needs being met.

:46:16.:46:21.

Sadly, there are also some councils across the country,

:46:22.:46:23.

some Labour councils, who haven't taken that opportunity

:46:24.:46:26.

where we do see a worst performance in relation to social care.

:46:27.:46:31.

The Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition at

:46:32.:46:34.

Warren Morgan, the government says you and other council leaders can

:46:35.:46:37.

pull in more council tax more quickly to pay for good care

:46:38.:46:40.

It's a sticking plaster for a gaping wound.

:46:41.:46:47.

We can raise an extra ?1 million through this extra 1% that's been

:46:48.:46:50.

bought forward from the end of Parliament to fund social care.

:46:51.:46:53.

We've got increases in social care costs of ?7 million

:46:54.:46:57.

Our total social care bill is ?150 million.

:46:58.:47:04.

We only bring in ?125 million in total from council tax.

:47:05.:47:08.

On top of that, we had to run 700 other services.

:47:09.:47:11.

It is just not possible, nor sustainable.

:47:12.:47:14.

This isn't a problem with Labour councils.

:47:15.:47:16.

It's a problem for top tier authorities, county councils,

:47:17.:47:19.

You've given us the figures for last year of ?8.7 million overspend,

:47:20.:47:28.

sorry, that's the East Sussex council and yours is 3.8 million.

:47:29.:47:31.

We've seen a lot of care homes close.

:47:32.:47:36.

The BBC have said that one in five care homes is at risk of closure

:47:37.:47:39.

Costs have risen because of the national living wage,

:47:40.:47:44.

funding has not replaced that and the government is simply passing

:47:45.:47:48.

the buck to local councils, as it has done with so many

:47:49.:47:51.

other services, and said, this is your problem.

:47:52.:47:54.

You raise the tax from local people, you take the blame, you take

:47:55.:47:57.

OK, this extra council tax, which Jeremy Corbyn referred

:47:58.:48:02.

All the Communities Secretary has done is given local authorities

:48:03.:48:08.

the opportunity to take an extra 3% over two years rather

:48:09.:48:11.

I don't think it's a con, but I agree with Warren that it's

:48:12.:48:24.

Taking the politics aside, successive governments have

:48:25.:48:27.

Social care for increasingly aged adult population is the single

:48:28.:48:30.

biggest challenge to local governments and we've got

:48:31.:48:32.

to grasp the nettle, come up with a long-term solution

:48:33.:48:35.

as to how we finance it for a population that is getting

:48:36.:48:38.

older, how we integrated much better than what's going on in hospitals.

:48:39.:48:44.

Some parts of the country are doing it better.

:48:45.:48:46.

There are 24 local authorities responsible for 50% of those older

:48:47.:48:49.

people in hospital who could be discharged but there's not

:48:50.:48:53.

If you take somewhere like Worthing, four and a half percent

:48:54.:49:01.

of the population is over the age of 85.

:49:02.:49:03.

People come to Worthing and live for a long time

:49:04.:49:06.

because it's a great place, but those people place extra demands

:49:07.:49:08.

West Sussex is not only dealing with a large elderly population,

:49:09.:49:12.

but a very old, elderly population as well and it can only

:49:13.:49:15.

Let's throw party politics out and sit here and say,

:49:16.:49:19.

Look at countries like France where there is an obligation

:49:20.:49:27.

I think you can be prosecuted if you don't visit your elderly parents in.

:49:28.:49:39.

We need a properly funded, integrated social care and health

:49:40.:49:55.

We've got a think tank in Brighton and Hove that

:49:56.:49:59.

looking at and integration, looking at good examples

:50:00.:50:01.

Of course, no solution can happen without adequate funding.

:50:02.:50:04.

I and the Leader of the Opposition have called for money that's

:50:05.:50:07.

earmarked for tax cuts for multinationals to be put

:50:08.:50:09.

So much for throwing party politics at the window in this discussion!

:50:10.:50:13.

Is it about redistributing some of the money that is

:50:14.:50:21.

A couple of weeks ago on the programme we had the Work

:50:22.:50:25.

and Pensions Secretary who said the pensions triple lock only

:50:26.:50:27.

People have looked at that as a possible source of more money

:50:28.:50:31.

It may be a combination of all of those things because there

:50:32.:50:38.

Absolutely I think families could step up to do more

:50:39.:50:42.

but they need to be supported to do that.

:50:43.:50:45.

So if we want older people to be able to stay in their own homes

:50:46.:50:48.

or close to their own families they need to have the support from

:50:49.:50:51.

But we are wasting money at the moment.

:50:52.:50:55.

It cost something like ?1300 to have someone in an Acute Hospital bed

:50:56.:50:59.

when they could be at a residential home or supported in their own homes

:51:00.:51:03.

if we integrated or joined up the system so much better

:51:04.:51:06.

So, what's the impact of all of this on young people?

:51:07.:51:13.

Well, in Brighton and Hove they're struggling to keep on top

:51:14.:51:16.

of the cost of elderly care, and the draft budget

:51:17.:51:18.

for next year includes deep cuts to youth services.

:51:19.:51:20.

They say they come here because they feel they belong.

:51:21.:51:29.

I never used to get out of the house.

:51:30.:51:31.

My friend took me there once and I made friends.

:51:32.:51:42.

It helps socialise with younger people.

:51:43.:51:45.

I think I've grown more as a person since coming here.

:51:46.:51:47.

This centre kind of functions as a home for a lot of people.

:51:48.:51:50.

Some of Brighton's most vulnerable teenagers come to the Brighton youth

:51:51.:51:53.

centre and drop-in groups like it, but these initiatives

:51:54.:51:55.

face an uncertain future as the city council plans to cut

:51:56.:51:58.

A move that could wipe out almost all of this kind of support.

:51:59.:52:03.

If you weren't able to go to the youth centre,

:52:04.:52:05.

Or I'd be on the streets with people that I shouldn't be with.

:52:06.:52:13.

That's where I'd probably see myself.

:52:14.:52:17.

The future generation needs this to be helped.

:52:18.:52:22.

I think it gives a lot of people the skills to go into adulthood

:52:23.:52:25.

and I think cutting something that is as intrinsic as this

:52:26.:52:28.

is to youth culture I think is doing a disservice to young people

:52:29.:52:31.

I've got friends here and got to take part in similar

:52:32.:52:38.

activities that I would never have even considered.

:52:39.:52:41.

The proposals affect 11 different youth groups,

:52:42.:52:43.

eight of which operate as the Brighton and Hove Youth

:52:44.:52:46.

Collective, a group of charities that together work with almost 3,000

:52:47.:52:49.

young people a year in some of the most deprived

:52:50.:52:53.

Almost ten years ago, Sophie was one of them and now

:52:54.:52:58.

she works on to youth projects and says it was intervention

:52:59.:53:02.

from youth workers that helped her find her way.

:53:03.:53:06.

I think that youth work has pretty much changed my path

:53:07.:53:09.

For me, at 14, I was vulnerable like a lot of young people

:53:10.:53:15.

are and like a lot of young people will continue to be,

:53:16.:53:19.

which is why I think youth work is really important because we go

:53:20.:53:22.

Brighton and Hove City Council is struggling to balance the books

:53:23.:53:29.

and needs to save ?24 million next year.

:53:30.:53:34.

By pulling the funding from these groups, the City Council could

:53:35.:53:37.

save some ?1.3 million over the next three years.

:53:38.:53:40.

But youth workers say they're concerned about the

:53:41.:53:43.

long-term impact of the move which they fear could leave some young

:53:44.:53:47.

people at risk of joining gangs, left on the streets are exposed to

:53:48.:53:49.

the dangers of drugs, alcohol and crime.

:53:50.:53:57.

Community preventative services, that's what we see

:53:58.:53:59.

ourselves providing, and I fear that if those start

:54:00.:54:02.

disappearing then young people's problems and

:54:03.:54:07.

challenges will become greater, they will still need to access other

:54:08.:54:10.

services such as statutory mental health services or social services

:54:11.:54:14.

and the cost will admit we be greater to the local authorities.

:54:15.:54:21.

And is not just happening in Brighton.

:54:22.:54:26.

Research by the union Unison says in the last six years

:54:27.:54:29.

youth services in the UK have been cut by ?387 million.

:54:30.:54:32.

Back in Brighton, a petition has been

:54:33.:54:33.

launched and demonstrators have protested against the proposed cuts,

:54:34.:54:36.

but with council budgets so tight, is there any alternatives?

:54:37.:54:41.

Joining us now from Brighton is the Leader of the Green Party

:54:42.:54:44.

She ran Children's Services for the council and has spent 35

:54:45.:54:48.

Let us go straight to the Labour leader of the Council and ask why

:54:49.:55:05.

the drastic cuts to youth services are being made. Because we've had

:55:06.:55:09.

six years of very drastic cuts from the government and for some of these

:55:10.:55:17.

absolutely vital services that provide a long-term saving, there is

:55:18.:55:21.

no scope for those any more. If it wasn't youth services we would be

:55:22.:55:26.

looking at early intervention, nurseries or children centres and

:55:27.:55:30.

got ?24 million of cuts to make this got ?24 million of cuts to make this

:55:31.:55:36.

year and there simply are aren't the scopes to do that. So he is saying

:55:37.:55:41.

he has no choice, broadly. Can you see why he feels that? Yes, I was

:55:42.:55:53.

involved in the council so I know it's a difficult choice to be made

:55:54.:55:57.

across council budgets. I know the chair and the co-chair of the party

:55:58.:56:03.

and the city but we need to look again at youth work because it's

:56:04.:56:06.

such a vital service to young people. It gives them somewhere to

:56:07.:56:11.

go and something to do and adults who aren't parents or teachers to

:56:12.:56:15.

talk to. The support that is offered is vital to some of the most money

:56:16.:56:17.

trouble young people in our city and trouble young people in our city and

:56:18.:56:24.

it's a fairly small budget -- vulnerable people.

:56:25.:56:27.

A lot of people have spent time trying to bid for the money and we

:56:28.:56:34.

also have in-house services which are vital as well. We haven't a huge

:56:35.:56:43.

amount of time. If you think it such a small amount, where would you cut

:56:44.:56:48.

that from the budget instead? It's about looking across the whole

:56:49.:56:54.

council budget and not just at children's services. I would urge

:56:55.:56:57.

Councillor Morgan to talk to the other parties to look at what other

:56:58.:57:02.

money might be available and the government is the main problem. They

:57:03.:57:08.

are spending over ?1 million on the National citizenship service which

:57:09.:57:12.

only deals with 15 and 16-year-olds and a small number across the

:57:13.:57:15.

country and it is not being taken out widely. There are other choices

:57:16.:57:22.

to be made. Let me put that pointed to him. Sue Shanks thinks the

:57:23.:57:27.

argument is with your government. As argument is with your government. As

:57:28.:57:32.

is always the case and she doesn't come up with an alternative for

:57:33.:57:36.

funding. I was a minister for children and young people and

:57:37.:57:40.

produced a document about the future of youth and I think it's

:57:41.:57:44.

short-sighted where there have been cuts to youth services. I helped to

:57:45.:57:50.

design a service that is the biggest single youth volunteering service in

:57:51.:57:55.

the country at the moment and it's a fantastic project for many young

:57:56.:58:00.

people and we want to have younger people coming in to put fair for

:58:01.:58:04.

their national citizen service as well. I understand why you want to

:58:05.:58:09.

defend that, but let's stay closer to home. Darren Morgan, the

:58:10.:58:15.

teenagers affected by the cut cuts and the children don't have a

:58:16.:58:20.

they're an easy target. As with they're an easy target. As with

:58:21.:58:26.

early years services, what we wanted to do and see mentioned are planned

:58:27.:58:29.

to transfer it to the voluntary sector, that should have happened

:58:30.:58:35.

three or four years ago. I would ask see why she didn't begin the process

:58:36.:58:40.

earlier. We've run out of time. We're making savings from a whole

:58:41.:58:45.

range of 700 council services but we've now got to make some pretty

:58:46.:58:49.

desperate savings to balance the books by March. Unison is calling

:58:50.:58:55.

for youth services to become statutory in the same way that

:58:56.:59:00.

I have some sympathy with that. The I have some sympathy with that. The

:59:01.:59:04.

trouble is that youth services needed to be reformed. What certain

:59:05.:59:11.

parts of the country have done is bring together local authorities

:59:12.:59:16.

with voluntary organisations and businesses as well to come up with

:59:17.:59:22.

youth sounds and services that young people want to use at times when

:59:23.:59:28.

they want to. Into many parts of the country, youth services were not

:59:29.:59:32.

very user-friendly for use as well. We saw how user-friendly the

:59:33.:59:39.

services were. Is there any hope for those people who feel their youth

:59:40.:59:44.

centres are just a complete lifeline for them? We'll keep working as long

:59:45.:59:48.

as we possibly can to try and keep them going. I was a trustee at a

:59:49.:59:53.

club in my ward for eight years and know the value of really good

:59:54.:59:59.

universal open offer youth services and I would urge anyone in the city

:00:00.:00:03.

who can help us out to step in and trying keep their sentences going.

:00:04.:00:11.

And your last thought on this? -- to keep those services going. I think

:00:12.:00:18.

open access services are vital and the money deduced collective gets

:00:19.:00:22.

brings in extra money but our own in-house service is also important.

:00:23.:00:26.

We've undervalued youth service in this country for a long time and a

:00:27.:00:31.

lot of people who go to them will tell you how valuable they are. Just

:00:32.:00:36.

time for some other news you may have missed in 60 seconds.

:00:37.:00:45.

The MP for Becks Hill and Battle says many schools in his

:00:46.:00:51.

constituency will be worse off under new government plans for school

:00:52.:00:55.

funding. It comes after a long-running campaign by MPs in

:00:56.:00:59.

Sussex calling for a fairer system. He says he wants a meeting to

:01:00.:01:05.

discuss the proposals. I didn't expect that I would see a reduction

:01:06.:01:11.

as well. Kent MP has for government support to stop lorries parking

:01:12.:01:16.

Mid Kent asked by Minister to Mid Kent asked by Minister to

:01:17.:01:20.

support her campaign. The government shares the desire to ensure we don't

:01:21.:01:25.

see this parking of lorries across Kent and it's something the

:01:26.:01:28.

government is working on and we'll find a solution.

:01:29.:01:32.

Travellers in Brighton and Hove say they are being unfairly targeted by

:01:33.:01:37.

new powers being given to the City Council next month. And that a new

:01:38.:01:43.

order, people can be fined ?75 for pitching tents or caravans without

:01:44.:01:44.

permission. That's all we've got time

:01:45.:01:47.

for from the South East this week My thanks to our guests,

:01:48.:01:50.

Tim Loughton and Warren Morgan. We will be back in January

:01:51.:01:56.

with coverage of all the south east Will Article 50 be triggered

:01:57.:01:59.

by the end of March, will President Trump start work

:02:00.:02:19.

on his wall and will Front National's Marine Le Pen

:02:20.:02:22.

provide the next electoral shock? 2016, the Brexit for Britain and

:02:23.:02:48.

Trump for the rest of the world. Let's look back and see what one of

:02:49.:02:49.

you said about Brexit. If Mr Cameron loses the referendum

:02:50.:02:54.

and it is this year, will he be Prime Minister at the end

:02:55.:02:56.

of the year? I don't think he will lose

:02:57.:02:59.

the referendum, so I'm feeling It was clear if he did lose the

:03:00.:03:12.

referendum he would be out. I would like to say in retrospect I saw that

:03:13.:03:16.

coming on a long and I was just saying it to make good television!

:03:17.:03:22.

It is Christmas so I will be benign towards my panel! It is possible,

:03:23.:03:28.

Iain, that not much happens to Brexit in 2017, because we have a

:03:29.:03:33.

host of elections coming up in Europe, the French won in the spring

:03:34.:03:36.

and the German one in the autumn will be the most important. And

:03:37.:03:41.

until we know who the next French president is and what condition Mrs

:03:42.:03:44.

Merkel will be in, not much will happen? I think that is the

:03:45.:03:50.

likeliest outcome. Short of some constitutional crisis involving the

:03:51.:03:55.

Lords relating to Brexit, it is pretty clear it is difficult to

:03:56.:04:01.

properly begin the negotiations until it becomes clear who Britain

:04:02.:04:06.

is negotiating with. It will come down to the result of the German

:04:07.:04:10.

election. Germany is the biggest contributor and if they keep power

:04:11.:04:15.

in what is left of the European Union, will drive the negotiation

:04:16.:04:18.

and we will have to see if it will be Merkel. So this vacuum that has

:04:19.:04:26.

been seen and has been filled by people less than friendly to the

:04:27.:04:30.

government, even when we know Article 50 has been triggered and

:04:31.:04:33.

even if there is some sort of white paper to give us a better idea of

:04:34.:04:37.

the broad strategic outlines of what they mean by Brexit, the phoney war

:04:38.:04:44.

could continue? Iain is right. 2017 is going to be a remarkably dull

:04:45.:04:50.

year for Brexit as opposed to 2016. We will have the article and a plan.

:04:51.:04:56.

The plan will say I would like the moon on a stick please. The EU will

:04:57.:05:02.

say you can have a tiny bit of moon and a tiny bit of stick and there

:05:03.:05:08.

will be an impasse. That will go on until one minute to midnight 2018

:05:09.:05:12.

which is when the EU will act. There is one thing in the Foreign Office

:05:13.:05:18.

which is more important, as David Davis Department told me, they know

:05:19.:05:22.

there is nothing they can do until the French and Germans have their

:05:23.:05:26.

elections and they know the lie of the land, but the people who will be

:05:27.:05:30.

more helpful to us are in Eastern Europe and in Scandinavia, the

:05:31.:05:35.

Nordic countries. We can do quite a lot of schmoozing to try and get

:05:36.:05:40.

them broadly on side this year? It is very difficult because one of the

:05:41.:05:43.

things they care most about in Eastern Europe is the ability for

:05:44.:05:47.

Eastern European stew come and work in the UK. That is key to the

:05:48.:05:53.

economic prospects. But what they care most about is that those

:05:54.:05:57.

already here should not be under any pressure to leave. There is no

:05:58.:06:02.

guarantee of that. That is what Mrs May wants. There are a lot of things

:06:03.:06:07.

Mrs May wants and the story of 2017 will be about what she gets. How

:06:08.:06:12.

much have we got to give people? It is not what we want, but what we are

:06:13.:06:18.

willing to give. The interesting thing is you can divide this out

:06:19.:06:22.

into two. There is a question of the European Union and our relationship

:06:23.:06:26.

with it but there is also the trick the polls did to London -- there is

:06:27.:06:35.

also the polls. There is question beyond the Western European

:06:36.:06:39.

security, that is about Nato and intelligence and security, and the

:06:40.:06:45.

rising Russian threat. That does not mean the Polish people will persuade

:06:46.:06:48.

everyone else to give us a lovely deal on the EU, but the dynamic is

:06:49.:06:53.

bigger than just a chat about Brexit. You cannot threaten a

:06:54.:06:58.

punishment beating for us if we are putting our soldiers on the line on

:06:59.:07:02.

the eastern borders of Europe. I think that's where Donald Trump

:07:03.:07:05.

changes the calculation because his attitude towards Russia is very

:07:06.:07:12.

different to Barack Obama's. It is indeed. Mentioning Russia, Brexit

:07:13.:07:19.

was a global story but nothing can match and American election and even

:07:20.:07:23.

one which gives Donald Trump as well. Let's have a look at what this

:07:24.:07:26.

panel was saying about Donald Trump. Will Donald Trump win the Republican

:07:27.:07:29.

nomination next year. So, not only did you think he would

:07:30.:07:43.

not be president, you did not think he would win the Republican

:07:44.:07:47.

nomination. We were not alone in that. And they're right put forward

:07:48.:07:51.

a motion to abolish punditry here now because clearly we are

:07:52.:07:57.

pointless! There is enough unemployment in the world already!

:07:58.:08:02.

We are moving into huge and charted territory with Donald Trump as

:08:03.:08:06.

president. It is incredibly unpredictable. But what has not been

:08:07.:08:13.

noticed enough is the Keynesian won. Trump is a Keynesian. He wants

:08:14.:08:20.

massive infrastructure spending and massive tax cuts. The big story next

:08:21.:08:26.

year will be the massive reflation of the American economy and indeed

:08:27.:08:31.

the US Federal reserve has already reacted to that by putting up

:08:32.:08:36.

interest rates. That is why he has a big fight with the rest of the

:08:37.:08:41.

Republican Party. He is nominally a Republican but they are not

:08:42.:08:45.

Keynesian. They are when it comes to tax cuts. They are when it hits the

:08:46.:08:51.

rich to benefit the poor. The big thing is whether the infrastructure

:08:52.:08:55.

projects land him in crony trouble. The transparency around who gets

:08:56.:09:00.

those will be extremely difficult. Most of the infrastructure spending

:09:01.:09:05.

he thinks can be done by the private sector and not the federal

:09:06.:09:09.

government. His tax cuts overlap the Republican house tax cuts speaker

:09:10.:09:15.

Ryan to give not all, but a fair chunk of what he wants. If the

:09:16.:09:20.

American economy is going to reflate next year, interest rates will rise

:09:21.:09:24.

in America, that will strengthen the dollar and it will mean that Europe

:09:25.:09:31.

will be, it will find it more difficult to finance its sovereign

:09:32.:09:35.

debt because you will get more money by investing in American sovereign

:09:36.:09:40.

debt. That is a good point because the dynamics will shift. If that

:09:41.:09:45.

happens, Trump will be pretty popular in the US. To begin with. To

:09:46.:09:52.

begin with. It is energy self-sufficient and if you can pull

:09:53.:09:55.

off the biggest trick in American politics which is somehow to via

:09:56.:10:01.

corporation tax cuts to allow the reassuring of wealth, because it is

:10:02.:10:06.

too expensive for American business to take back into the US and

:10:07.:10:10.

reinvest, if you combine all of those things together, you will end

:10:11.:10:14.

up with a boom on a scale you have not seen. It will be Reagan on

:10:15.:10:21.

steroids? What could possibly go wrong? In the short term for

:10:22.:10:25.

Britain, it is probably not bad news. Our biggest market for exports

:10:26.:10:30.

as a country is the United States. Our biggest market for foreign

:10:31.:10:35.

direct investment is the United States and the same is true vice

:10:36.:10:39.

versa for America in Britain. Given the pound is now competitive and

:10:40.:10:42.

likely the dollar will get stronger, it could well give a boost to the

:10:43.:10:49.

British economy? Could do bit you have to be slightly cautious about

:10:50.:10:52.

the warm language we are getting which is great news out of President

:10:53.:10:58.

Trump's future cabinet on doing a trade deal early, we are net

:10:59.:11:02.

exporters to the US. We benefit far more from trading with US than they

:11:03.:11:05.

do with us. I think we have to come up with something to offer the US

:11:06.:11:11.

for them to jump into bed with us. I think it is called two new aircraft

:11:12.:11:17.

carriers and modernising the fleet. Bring it on. I will raise caution,

:11:18.:11:25.

people in declining industries in some places in America, the rust

:11:26.:11:30.

belt who have faced big profound structural challenges and those are

:11:31.:11:34.

much harder to reverse. They face real problems now because the dollar

:11:35.:11:39.

is so strong. Their ability to export has taken a huge hit out of

:11:40.:11:45.

Ohio, Michigan and Illinois. And the Mexican imports into America is now

:11:46.:11:48.

dirt cheap so that is a major problem. Next year we have elections

:11:49.:11:55.

in Austria, France, the Netherlands, Germany, probably Italy. Which

:11:56.:12:05.

outcome will be the most dramatic for Brexit? If Merkel lost it would

:12:06.:12:09.

be a huge surprise. That is unlikely. And if it was not Filon in

:12:10.:12:19.

France that would be unlikely. The consensus it it will be Francois

:12:20.:12:24.

Filon against Marine Le Pen and it will be uniting around the far right

:12:25.:12:34.

candidate. In 2002, that is what happened. Filon is a Thatcherite.

:12:35.:12:41.

Marine Le Pen's politics -- economics are hard left. Francois

:12:42.:12:49.

Filon is as much a cert to win as Hillary Clinton was this time last

:12:50.:12:53.

year. If he is competing against concerns about rising globalisation

:12:54.:13:02.

and his pitch is Thatcherite, it is a bold, brave strategy in the

:13:03.:13:07.

context so we will see. It will keep us busy next year, Tom? Almost as

:13:08.:13:14.

busy as this year but not quite. This year was a record year. I am up

:13:15.:13:19.

in my hours! That's all for today,

:13:20.:13:21.

thanks to all my guests. The Daily Politics will be back

:13:22.:13:23.

on BBC Two at noon tomorrow. I'll be back here

:13:24.:13:26.

on the 15th January. Remember, if it's Sunday,

:13:27.:13:28.

it's the Sunday Politics. The most a writer

:13:29.:13:31.

can hope from a reader West Side Story took choreography

:13:32.:14:12.

in a radical new direction. The dance was woven

:14:13.:14:29.

into the storyline,

:14:30.:14:34.

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