Browse content similar to 16/03/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. George Osborne's fifth | :00:36. | :00:44. | |
Budget will offer more tax relief for the lower paid but not for | :00:45. | :00:46. | |
middle income earners being thrust into the 40p tax bracket. That's our | :00:47. | :00:48. | |
top story. Ed Balls says millions of people | :00:49. | :00:53. | |
aren't feeling any benefit from the recovery. We'll discuss the economy | :00:54. | :00:56. | |
with big political beasts from Labour, the Conservatives, and the | :00:57. | :01:03. | |
Lib Dems. Now that Ed Miliband has effectively ruled out an in/out EU | :01:04. | :01:07. | |
referendum, how does UKIP deal with Tory claims that a vote for UKIP | :01:08. | :01:08. | |
In the south: After the floods, the means no chance | :01:09. | :01:18. | |
In the south: After the floods, the clean`up. The prime minister | :01:19. | :01:20. | |
promises to spend restoring confidence in the safety | :01:21. | :01:23. | |
of cycling. The three areas of London getting a cash boost to try | :01:24. | :01:24. | |
something different. And with me as always our top | :01:25. | :01:36. | |
political panel - Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. They'll be | :01:37. | :01:38. | |
tweeting their thoughts using the hashtag #bbcsp throughout the | :01:39. | :01:43. | |
programme. So, just three months after his last major financial | :01:44. | :01:46. | |
statement, George Osborne will be at the despatch box again on Wednesday, | :01:47. | :01:51. | |
delivering his 2014 Budget. The Chancellor has already previewed his | :01:52. | :01:54. | |
own speech, pledging to build what he calls a "resilient economy". The | :01:55. | :02:05. | |
message I will give in the Budget is the economic plan is working but the | :02:06. | :02:08. | |
job is far from done. We need to build resilient economy which means | :02:09. | :02:12. | |
addressing the long-term weaknesses in Britain that we don't export | :02:13. | :02:16. | |
enough, invest enough, build enough, make enough. Those are the things I | :02:17. | :02:19. | |
will address because we want Britain to earn its way in the world. George | :02:20. | :02:23. | |
Osborne's opposite number, Ed Balls, has also been talking ahead of the | :02:24. | :02:27. | |
Budget. He says not everyone is feeling the benefit of the economic | :02:28. | :02:29. | |
recovery, and again attacked the Government's decision to reduce the | :02:30. | :02:36. | |
top rate of tax from 50 to 45%. George Osborne is only ever tough | :02:37. | :02:40. | |
when he's having a go at the week and the voiceless. Labour is willing | :02:41. | :02:43. | |
to face up to people on the highest incomes and say, I'm sorry, | :02:44. | :02:47. | |
justifying a big tax cut at this time is not fair. We will take away | :02:48. | :02:53. | |
the winter allowance from the richer pensioners, and I think that's the | :02:54. | :02:57. | |
right thing to do. George Osborne might agree, but he's not allowed to | :02:58. | :03:02. | |
say so. That was the Chancellor and the shadow chancellor. Janan, it | :03:03. | :03:06. | |
seems like we are in a race against time. No one argues that the | :03:07. | :03:10. | |
recovery is not under way, in fact it looks quite strong after a long | :03:11. | :03:13. | |
wait, but will it feed through to the living standards of ordinary | :03:14. | :03:19. | |
people in time for the May election? They only have 14 months to do it. | :03:20. | :03:23. | |
The big economic variable is business investment. Even during the | :03:24. | :03:27. | |
downturn, businesses hoarded a lot of cash. The question is, are they | :03:28. | :03:32. | |
confident enough to release that into investment and wages? Taking on | :03:33. | :03:36. | |
new people, giving them higher pay settlements. That could make the | :03:37. | :03:39. | |
difference and the country will feel more prosperous and this time next | :03:40. | :03:46. | |
year. But come to think of it, it strikes me, that how anticipated it | :03:47. | :03:50. | |
is, it's the least talked about Budget for many years. I think that | :03:51. | :03:53. | |
is because the economy has settled down a bit, but also because people | :03:54. | :03:58. | |
have got used to the idea that there is no such thing as a giveaway. | :03:59. | :04:02. | |
Anything that is a tax cut will be taken away as a tax rise or spending | :04:03. | :04:07. | |
cut. That's true during the good times but during fiscal | :04:08. | :04:10. | |
consolidation, it's avoidable. -- unavoidable. There is a plus and | :04:11. | :04:16. | |
minus for the Conservatives here. 49% of people think the government | :04:17. | :04:21. | |
is on roughly the right course, but only 16% think that their financial | :04:22. | :04:23. | |
circumstances will improve this year. It will be a tough one for the | :04:24. | :04:28. | |
Labour Party to respond to. I agree with Janan. Everyone seems bored | :04:29. | :04:35. | |
with the run-up to the Budget. The front page of the Sunday Times was | :04:36. | :04:40. | |
about fox hunting, the front page of the Sunday Telegraph was about EU | :04:41. | :04:44. | |
renegotiation. Maybe we are saying this because there have not been | :04:45. | :04:49. | |
many leaks. We have got used to them, and most of the George Osborne | :04:50. | :04:54. | |
chat on Twitter was about how long his tie was. Freakishly long. I | :04:55. | :04:59. | |
wouldn't dare to speculate why. Anything we should read into that? I | :05:00. | :05:06. | |
don't know. For a long while there was no recovery, then it was it is a | :05:07. | :05:13. | |
weak recovery, and now, all right, it's strong but not reaching | :05:14. | :05:15. | |
everyone in the country. That is where we are in the debate. That's | :05:16. | :05:21. | |
right, and the Conservative MPs are so anxious and they are making | :05:22. | :05:27. | |
George Osborne announcing the rays in the personal allowance will go | :05:28. | :05:32. | |
up, saying it might go up to 10,750 from next year, and Conservative MPs | :05:33. | :05:40. | |
say that that's OK but we need to think about the middle voters. | :05:41. | :05:43. | |
People are saying the economy is recovering but no one is feeling it | :05:44. | :05:46. | |
in their pocket. These are people snagged in at a 40p tax rate. The | :05:47. | :05:51. | |
Tories are saying these are our people and we have to get to them. | :05:52. | :05:56. | |
He has given the Lib Dems more than they could have hoped for on raising | :05:57. | :06:02. | |
the threshold. Why is he not saying we have done a bit for you, now we | :06:03. | :06:06. | |
have to look after our people and get some of these people out of that | :06:07. | :06:13. | |
40% bracket? Partly because the Lib Dems have asked for it so | :06:14. | :06:15. | |
insistently behind-the-scenes. Somebody from the Treasury this week | :06:16. | :06:19. | |
told me that these debates behind the scenes between the Lib Dems and | :06:20. | :06:22. | |
Tories are incredibly tenacious and get more so every year. The Lib Dems | :06:23. | :06:26. | |
have been insistent about going further on the threshold. The second | :06:27. | :06:31. | |
reason is that the Tories think the issue can work for them in the next | :06:32. | :06:37. | |
election. They can take the credit. If they enthusiastically going to | :06:38. | :06:41. | |
?12,000 and make it a manifesto pledge, they can claim ownership of | :06:42. | :06:45. | |
the policy. The Liberal Democrats want to take it to 12,500, which | :06:46. | :06:50. | |
means you are getting into minimum wage territory. It's incredibly | :06:51. | :06:54. | |
expensive and the Tories are saying that maybe you would be looking at | :06:55. | :06:59. | |
the 40p rate. The Tories have played as well. There have been authorised | :07:00. | :07:04. | |
briefings about the 40p rate, and Cameron and Osborne have said that | :07:05. | :07:06. | |
their priority was helping the lowest paid which is a useful | :07:07. | :07:10. | |
statement to make and it appeals to the UKIP voters who are the | :07:11. | :07:15. | |
blue-collar workers. And we are right, the economy will determine | :07:16. | :07:20. | |
the next election? You assume so. It was ever that is. It didn't in 1992 | :07:21. | :07:24. | |
or 1987. It did in 1992. Ed Miliband's announcement last week | :07:25. | :07:33. | |
that a Labour government would not hold a referendum on Europe unless | :07:34. | :07:36. | |
there's another transfer of powers from Britain to Brussels has | :07:37. | :07:38. | |
certainly clarified matters. UKIP say it just shows the mainstream | :07:39. | :07:44. | |
parties can't be trusted. The Conservatives think it means UKIP | :07:45. | :07:47. | |
voters might now flock back to them as the only realistic chance of | :07:48. | :07:50. | |
securing a referendum. Giles Dilnot reports. | :07:51. | :07:53. | |
When it comes to Europe and Britain's relation to it, the | :07:54. | :07:57. | |
question is whether the answer is answered by a question. To be in or | :07:58. | :08:02. | |
not to be in, that is the question, and our politicians have seemed less | :08:03. | :08:05. | |
interested in question itself but whether they want to let us answer | :08:06. | :08:08. | |
it. Labour clarified their position last week. There will be no transfer | :08:09. | :08:21. | |
of powers without an in out referendum, without a clear choice | :08:22. | :08:24. | |
as to whether Britain will stay in the EU. That seems yes to a | :08:25. | :08:30. | |
referendum, but hold on. I believe it is unlikely that this lock will | :08:31. | :08:33. | |
be used in the next Parliament. So that's a no. The Conservatives say | :08:34. | :08:37. | |
yes to asking, in 2017, if re-elected, but haven't always. In | :08:38. | :08:47. | |
2011, 81 Tory MPs defied the PM by voting for a referendum on EU | :08:48. | :08:49. | |
membership: the largest rebellion against a Tory prime minister over | :08:50. | :08:52. | |
Europe. Prompted by a petition from over 100,000 members of the public. | :08:53. | :09:03. | |
The wrong question at the wrong time said the Foreign Secretary of a | :09:04. | :09:05. | |
coalition Government including selfie-conciously-pro European Lib | :09:06. | :09:08. | |
Dems, who had a referendum pledge in their 2010 manifesto, but only in | :09:09. | :09:11. | |
certain circumstances. So we have the newspapers, and the public | :09:12. | :09:14. | |
meeting leaflets. UKIP have always wanted the question put regardless. | :09:15. | :09:17. | |
But Labour's new position may change things and The Conservatives think | :09:18. | :09:25. | |
so. I think it does, because, you know, we are saying very clearly, | :09:26. | :09:31. | |
like UKIP, we want a referendum, but only a Conservative government can | :09:32. | :09:36. | |
deliver it because most suffer largest would say it is possible in | :09:37. | :09:41. | |
the first past the post system to have a UKIP government -- | :09:42. | :09:50. | |
sophologists. And then it's easy for as to say that if a UKIP vote lets | :09:51. | :09:57. | |
in a Conservative government, then they won't hold a referendum. UKIP | :09:58. | :10:03. | |
seem undaunted by the clarifications of the other parties, campaigning | :10:04. | :10:06. | |
like the rest but with a "tell it how it is, just saying what you're | :10:07. | :10:09. | |
thinking, we aren't like them" attitude. They seem more worried | :10:10. | :10:16. | |
about us and what we want, and I don't see that in the other parties. | :10:17. | :10:20. | |
In parts of the UK, like South Essex, it's a message they think is | :10:21. | :10:27. | |
working. They are taking the voters for granted again and people have | :10:28. | :10:30. | |
had enough. People are angry, they see people saying they will get a | :10:31. | :10:37. | |
vote on the European Union, but then it just comes down the road. They | :10:38. | :10:42. | |
were quick to capitalise on the announcements, saying only the | :10:43. | :10:48. | |
Conservatives will give you say, so does it change things? Not really. | :10:49. | :10:54. | |
We have been talking about a referendum and having a debate on | :10:55. | :10:57. | |
the European Union for years, and the other parties are playing catch | :10:58. | :11:02. | |
up. They have a trust issue. Nobody trusts them on the European Union | :11:03. | :11:06. | |
and that is why people come to us. Who the average UKIP voter is, or | :11:07. | :11:09. | |
how they voted before is complicated, and what dent they | :11:10. | :11:11. | |
might make on Conservative and Labour votes in 2015 is trickier | :11:12. | :11:14. | |
still, but someone's been crunching the numbers anyway. We reckon it is | :11:15. | :11:22. | |
between 25 and 30% of the electorate broadly share the UKIP motivation, | :11:23. | :11:26. | |
so to top out at that level would be difficult. That's an awful lot of | :11:27. | :11:30. | |
voters, but it's not the majority, and this is the reason why the main | :11:31. | :11:35. | |
parties can't afford to just openly appealed to the UKIP electorate too | :11:36. | :11:38. | |
hard because the elections are won and lost amongst the other 70%, the | :11:39. | :11:43. | |
middle-class, the graduate, the younger, ethnic minorities. An | :11:44. | :11:48. | |
appeal to the values of UKIP voters will alienate some of the other | :11:49. | :11:52. | |
groups, and they are arguably more significant in winning the election. | :11:53. | :11:55. | |
Whatever, the numbers UKIPers seem doggedly determined to dig away at | :11:56. | :11:58. | |
any support the other parties have previously enjoyed. | :11:59. | :12:01. | |
Giles Dilnot reporting. UKIP's leader, Nigel Farage, joins me now | :12:02. | :12:04. | |
for the Sunday Interview. Nigel Farage, welcome back. Good | :12:05. | :12:21. | |
morning. So the Labour Party has shot a fox. If Ed Miliband is the | :12:22. | :12:24. | |
next by Minister, there will not be a referendum customer there's a long | :12:25. | :12:29. | |
way between now and the next election, and Conservative party | :12:30. | :12:33. | |
jobs and changes. We had a cast-iron guarantee of a referendum from | :12:34. | :12:36. | |
camera, then he three line whip people to vote against it, and now | :12:37. | :12:40. | |
they are for it. What the Labour Party has done is open up a huge | :12:41. | :12:44. | |
blank to us, and that is what we will go for in the European | :12:45. | :12:47. | |
elections this coming year in May. I think there is a very strong chance | :12:48. | :12:51. | |
that Labour will match the Conservative pledge by the next | :12:52. | :12:55. | |
general election. There may be, but at the moment he has ruled it out, | :12:56. | :12:59. | |
and if he does not change his mind and goes into the election with the | :13:00. | :13:03. | |
policy as it is, the only chance of a referendum is a Tory government. | :13:04. | :13:09. | |
If you think the Tories will form a majority, which I think is unlikely. | :13:10. | :13:14. | |
Remember, two thirds of our voters would never vote Conservative | :13:15. | :13:17. | |
anyway. There is still this line of questioning that assumes UKIP voters | :13:18. | :13:21. | |
are middle-class Tories. We have some voters like that, but most of | :13:22. | :13:25. | |
them are coming to us from Labour, some from the Lib Dems and a lot of | :13:26. | :13:30. | |
nonvoters. But it come the election you failed to change Mr Miliband's | :13:31. | :13:37. | |
line, I repeat, the only chance of a referendum, if you want a | :13:38. | :13:40. | |
referendum, if that is what matters, and the polls suggest it doesn't | :13:41. | :13:44. | |
matter to that many people, but if that is what matters, the only way | :13:45. | :13:47. | |
you can get one is to vote Conservative. No, because you have a | :13:48. | :13:52. | |
situation in key marginals, especially where all three parties | :13:53. | :13:56. | |
are getting a good share, where we will see, and this depends a lot on | :13:57. | :14:00. | |
the local elections and the European elections, there are target | :14:01. | :14:06. | |
constituencies where UKIP has a reasonably good chance of winning a | :14:07. | :14:10. | |
seat, and that will change the agenda. Every vote for UKIP makes a | :14:11. | :14:16. | |
Tory government less likely. Arab voters are not Tory. Only a third of | :14:17. | :14:19. | |
the UKIP boat comes from the Conservative party -- our voters are | :14:20. | :14:26. | |
not Tory. -- the UKIP vote. It was mentioned earlier, about blue-collar | :14:27. | :14:30. | |
voters. We pick up far more Labour Party and nonvoters than | :14:31. | :14:33. | |
conservatives. On the balance of what the effect of the UKIP boat | :14:34. | :14:37. | |
is, the Tories should worry about us, they should worry about the fact | :14:38. | :14:40. | |
they have lost faith with their own electorate. Even if there is a | :14:41. | :14:46. | |
minority Ed Miliband government, it means no referendum. Labour and the | :14:47. | :14:49. | |
Liberal Democrats are now at one on the matter. The next election is in | :14:50. | :14:54. | |
a few weeks time, the European elections. What happens in those | :14:55. | :14:58. | |
elections will likely change the party stands and position on a | :14:59. | :15:01. | |
referendum. The fact that Ed Miliband has said this means, for | :15:02. | :15:06. | |
us, our big target on the 22nd of May will be the Labour voters in the | :15:07. | :15:09. | |
Midlands and northern cities, and if we do hammer into that boat and we | :15:10. | :15:14. | |
are able to beat Labour on the day, there's a good chance of their | :15:15. | :15:23. | |
policy changing. One poll this morning suggests Labour is close to | :15:24. | :15:30. | |
you at 28, the Conservatives down at 21, the Lib Dems down at eight. You | :15:31. | :15:37. | |
are taking votes from the Conservatives and the Liberal | :15:38. | :15:41. | |
Democrats. We are certainly taking votes from the Lib Dems but that is | :15:42. | :15:48. | |
comparing the poll with one year ago when I don't think most people knew | :15:49. | :15:54. | |
what the question really was. You seem to be in an impossible position | :15:55. | :15:58. | |
because the better you do in a general election, the less chance | :15:59. | :16:04. | |
there will be a referendum by 2020. No, look at the numbers. Only a | :16:05. | :16:10. | |
third of our voters are Conservatives. When we have polled | :16:11. | :16:15. | |
voters that have come to us, we asked them if there was no UKIP | :16:16. | :16:20. | |
candidate who would you vote for, less than one in five said | :16:21. | :16:25. | |
Conservative. Less than one in five UKIP voters would be tempted to vote | :16:26. | :16:30. | |
Conservative under any circumstances so the arithmetic does not suggest | :16:31. | :16:35. | |
we are the Conservative problem, it suggests we are hurting all of the | :16:36. | :16:38. | |
parties and the reason the Tories are in trouble is because they have | :16:39. | :16:43. | |
lost their traditional base. Why do you think Nick Clegg is debating | :16:44. | :16:50. | |
Europe? I think they are in trouble, at 8% they could be wiped | :16:51. | :16:59. | |
out, they could go from 12 to nothing and I think it is a chance | :17:00. | :17:03. | |
for Nick Clegg to raise their profile. They are fringe party with | :17:04. | :17:10. | |
respect to this contest so I see why he wants to do it. One of our big | :17:11. | :17:15. | |
criticisms is that we have not been able to have a full debate on | :17:16. | :17:19. | |
national television on the alternatives of the European Union | :17:20. | :17:24. | |
so I am looking forward to it. How are you preparing? I think you can | :17:25. | :17:37. | |
be over scripted with these things. Are you not doing mock debates? No, | :17:38. | :17:43. | |
I am checking my facts and figures and making sure that I can show the | :17:44. | :17:47. | |
British people that in terms of jobs, we would be far better off not | :17:48. | :17:53. | |
being within the European Union, not being within its rule book, not | :17:54. | :17:58. | |
suffering from some of the green taxes they are putting on the | :17:59. | :18:04. | |
manufacturing industry. The idea that 3 million jobs are at risk, I | :18:05. | :18:09. | |
want to show why that is nonsense. Who do you think is playing you in | :18:10. | :18:15. | |
their mock debates? They probably went to the pub and found someone! | :18:16. | :18:23. | |
We will see. You have promised to do whatever it takes to fund your | :18:24. | :18:27. | |
European election campaign, how much has been given so far? Just give it | :18:28. | :18:33. | |
a few weeks and you will see what Paul is planning to do. He has made | :18:34. | :18:40. | |
a substantial investment in the campaign already. How much? I'm not | :18:41. | :18:48. | |
answering that for now. We are well on our way to a properly funded | :18:49. | :18:53. | |
campaign and our big target will be the big cities and the working vote | :18:54. | :18:59. | |
in those communities. Your deputy chairman Neil Hamilton is another | :19:00. | :19:03. | |
former Tory, he says so far we haven't seen the colour of his | :19:04. | :19:09. | |
money. Exactly two weeks ago, and things have changed since then. Mr | :19:10. | :19:15. | |
Sykes has written a cheque since then? Yes. This morning's papers | :19:16. | :19:25. | |
saying you will be asking MEPs to contribute ?50,000 each, is that | :19:26. | :19:32. | |
true? Over the next five years, yes. Not for the European campaign. So | :19:33. | :19:38. | |
lack of money will not be an excuse. We will have a properly funded | :19:39. | :19:44. | |
campaign. How we raise the kind of money needed to fund the general | :19:45. | :19:48. | |
election afterwards is another question. What is UKIP's policy on | :19:49. | :19:58. | |
paying family members? We don't encourage it and I didn't employ any | :19:59. | :20:03. | |
family member for years. My wife ended up doing the job and paid for | :20:04. | :20:10. | |
the first seven years of my job. She is paid now? Until May, then she | :20:11. | :20:17. | |
comes off the payroll am which leaves me with a huge problem. In | :20:18. | :20:25. | |
2004 you said, UKIP MEPs will not employ wives and there will be no | :20:26. | :20:31. | |
exceptions. An exception was made because I became leader of the | :20:32. | :20:34. | |
National party as well as a leader of the group in European | :20:35. | :20:39. | |
Parliament. Things do change in life, and you can criticise me for | :20:40. | :20:43. | |
whatever you like, but I cannot be criticised for not having a big | :20:44. | :20:48. | |
enough workload. No, but you didn't employ your wife when you had told | :20:49. | :20:57. | |
others not to do it your party. Nobody else in my party has a big | :20:58. | :21:01. | |
job in Europe and the UK. We made the exception for this because of | :21:02. | :21:06. | |
very unusual circumstances. It also looks like there was a monetary | :21:07. | :21:10. | |
calculation. Listen to this clip from a BBC documentary in 2000. It | :21:11. | :21:18. | |
is a good job. I worked it out because so much of what you get is | :21:19. | :21:23. | |
after tax that if you used the secretarial allowances to pay your | :21:24. | :21:27. | |
wife on top of the other games you can play, I reckon this job in | :21:28. | :21:35. | |
Stirling term is over a quarter of ?1 million a year. That is what you | :21:36. | :21:38. | |
would need to earn working for Goldman Sachs or someone like that. | :21:39. | :21:44. | |
I agree with that. More importantly the way you really make money in the | :21:45. | :21:47. | |
European Parliament is being their five days a week, because you sign | :21:48. | :21:53. | |
in every day, you get 300 euros every day, and that is how people | :21:54. | :21:58. | |
maxed out. The criticism of me is that I am not there enough so | :21:59. | :22:03. | |
whatever good or bad I have done in the European Parliament, financial | :22:04. | :22:08. | |
gain has not been one of the benefits. There have been | :22:09. | :22:12. | |
allegations of you also employing a former mistress on the same European | :22:13. | :22:18. | |
Parliamentary allowance, you deny that? I am very upset with the BBC | :22:19. | :22:23. | |
coverage of this. The ten o'clock news run this as a story without | :22:24. | :22:27. | |
explaining that that allegation was made using Parliamentary privilege | :22:28. | :22:32. | |
by somebody on bail facing serious fraud charges. I thought that was | :22:33. | :22:39. | |
pretty poor. You have a chance to do that and you deny you have employed | :22:40. | :22:48. | |
a former mistress? Yes, but if you look at many of the things said over | :22:49. | :22:52. | |
the last week, I think it is becoming pretty clear to voters that | :22:53. | :22:56. | |
the establishment are becoming terrified of UKIP and they will use | :22:57. | :23:03. | |
anything they can find to do us down in public. Is an MEP employs his | :23:04. | :23:10. | |
wife and his former mistress, that would be resigning matter, wouldn't | :23:11. | :23:15. | |
it? Yes, particularly if the assumption was that money was being | :23:16. | :23:20. | |
taped for work but was not being done. Who do you think is behind | :23:21. | :23:27. | |
these stories? It is all about negative, it is all about attacks, | :23:28. | :23:33. | |
but I don't think it is actually going to work because so much of | :23:34. | :23:37. | |
what has been said in the last week is nonsense. A reputable daily | :23:38. | :23:41. | |
newspaper said I shouldn't be trusted because I had stored six | :23:42. | :23:46. | |
times for the Conservative party, I have never even stored in a local | :23:47. | :23:50. | |
council election. I think if you keep kicking an underdog, it will | :23:51. | :23:56. | |
make the British people rally around us. Is it the Conservatives? Yes, | :23:57. | :24:06. | |
and the idea that all of our voters are retired colonels is simply not | :24:07. | :24:12. | |
true. We get some voters from the Labour side as well. Would you | :24:13. | :24:22. | |
consider standing in a Labour seat if you are so sure you are getting | :24:23. | :24:27. | |
Labour votes? Yes, but the key for UKIP is that it has to be marginal. | :24:28. | :24:35. | |
Just for your own future, if you fail to win a single soul -- single | :24:36. | :24:43. | |
seat in the general election, if Ed Miliband fails to win an outright | :24:44. | :24:48. | |
majority, will you stand down as UKIP leader? I would think within | :24:49. | :24:52. | |
about 12 hours, yes. I will have failed, I got into politics not | :24:53. | :24:58. | |
because I wanted a career in politics, far from it. I did it | :24:59. | :25:03. | |
because I don't think this European entanglement is right for our | :25:04. | :25:06. | |
country. I think a lot of people have woken up to the idea we have | :25:07. | :25:11. | |
lost control of our borders and now is the moment for UKIP to achieve | :25:12. | :25:18. | |
what it set out to do. Will UKIP continue without you if you stand | :25:19. | :25:24. | |
down? Of course it will. I know that everyone says it is a one-man band | :25:25. | :25:34. | |
but it is far from that. We have had some painful moments, getting rid of | :25:35. | :25:36. | |
old UKIP, new UKIP is more professional, less angry and it is | :25:37. | :25:40. | |
going places. Nigel Farage, thank you for being with us. | :25:41. | :25:46. | |
So, what else should we be looking out for in Wednesday's Budget | :25:47. | :25:48. | |
statement? We've compiled a Sunday Politics guide to the Chancellor's | :25:49. | :25:50. | |
likely announcements. Eyes down everyone, it's time for a | :25:51. | :25:54. | |
bit of budget bingo. Let's see what we will get from the man who lives | :25:55. | :25:57. | |
at legs 11. Despite some good news on the economy, George Osborne says | :25:58. | :26:01. | |
that this will be a Budget of hard truths with more pain ahead in order | :26:02. | :26:04. | |
to get the public finances back under control. But many in the | :26:05. | :26:07. | |
Conservative party, including the former chancellor Norman Lamont, | :26:08. | :26:09. | |
want Mr Osborne to help the middle classes by doing something about the | :26:10. | :26:13. | |
4.4 million people who fall into the 40% bracket. Around one million more | :26:14. | :26:20. | |
people pay tax at that rate compared to 2010 because the higher tax | :26:21. | :26:22. | |
threshold hasn't increased in line with inflation. Mr Osborne has | :26:23. | :26:28. | |
indicated he might tackle the issue in the next Conservative manifesto, | :26:29. | :26:31. | |
but for now he is focused on helping the low paid. It's likely we will | :26:32. | :26:37. | |
see another increase in the amount you can earn before being taxed, | :26:38. | :26:43. | |
perhaps up another ?500 to ?10,500. The Chancellor is going to flesh out | :26:44. | :26:46. | |
the details of a tax break for childcare payments, and there could | :26:47. | :26:49. | |
be cries of 'house' with the promise of more help for the building | :26:50. | :27:06. | |
industry. The Help To Buy scheme will be extended to 2020 and there | :27:07. | :27:10. | |
could be the go-ahead for the first Garden City in 40 years. Finally, | :27:11. | :27:12. | |
bingo regulars could be celebrating a full house with a possible cut in | :27:13. | :27:15. | |
bingo tax. And I've been joined in the studio | :27:16. | :27:18. | |
by the former Conservative chancellor Norman Lamont, in Salford | :27:19. | :27:20. | |
by the former Labour Cabinet minister Hazel Blears, and in | :27:21. | :27:23. | |
Aberdeen by the Lib Dem deputy leader, Malcolm Bruce. Let me come | :27:24. | :27:26. | |
to Norman Lamont first, you and another former Tory Chancellor, | :27:27. | :27:33. | |
Nigel Lawson, have called in the fall in the threshold for the rate | :27:34. | :27:43. | |
at which the 40p clicks in. I would have preferred an adjustment in the | :27:44. | :27:47. | |
Budget but I agree with what you are saying, it sounds like the | :27:48. | :27:52. | |
Chancellor will not do that. My main point is that you cannot go on | :27:53. | :27:57. | |
forever and forever increasing the personal allowance and not | :27:58. | :28:01. | |
increasing the 40% tax threshold because you are driving more and | :28:02. | :28:07. | |
more people into that band. It is an expensive policy because in order to | :28:08. | :28:10. | |
keep the number of people not paying tax constant, you have to keep | :28:11. | :28:16. | |
adjusting it each year. When this was introduced by Nigel Lawson, it | :28:17. | :28:22. | |
applied to one in 20 people, the 40% rate, it now applies to one in six | :28:23. | :28:29. | |
people. By next year, there will be 6 million people paying base. Why do | :28:30. | :28:34. | |
you think your Tory colleagues seem happy to go along with the Lib Dems | :28:35. | :28:39. | |
and target whatever money there is for tax cuts rather -- on the lower | :28:40. | :28:54. | |
paid rather than the middle incomes? They are not helping the lowest | :28:55. | :29:00. | |
paid. If you wanted to really help the lowest paid people you would | :29:01. | :29:02. | |
raise the threshold for national insurance contributions, which is | :29:03. | :29:09. | |
around ?6,000. Is it the Lib Dems stopping any rise in the 40p | :29:10. | :29:19. | |
threshold? We are concentrating on raising the lower threshold because | :29:20. | :29:24. | |
we believe that is the way to help those on lower incomes. Whilst they | :29:25. | :29:31. | |
haven't benefited as much as the lower paid they have participated | :29:32. | :29:34. | |
and I think people understand right now, if you were going to prioritise | :29:35. | :29:39. | |
the high earners, when we are still trying to help those on lower and | :29:40. | :29:44. | |
middle incomes who haven't enjoyed great pay increases but have got the | :29:45. | :29:47. | |
benefit of these tax increases, that is why we would like to do it for | :29:48. | :29:53. | |
the minimum wage level. But the poorest will not benefit at all. The | :29:54. | :29:59. | |
poorest 16% already don't pay tax. Why don't you increase the threshold | :30:00. | :30:04. | |
at which National Insurance starts? You only have two earned ?5,500 | :30:05. | :30:13. | |
before you start to pay it. You've got to remember that the raising of | :30:14. | :30:18. | |
the threshold to ?10,000 or more was something the Tories said we could | :30:19. | :30:23. | |
not afford. Why are you continuing to do it? If you want to help the | :30:24. | :30:30. | |
working poor, the way would be to take the lowest out of national | :30:31. | :30:36. | |
insurance. The view we take is they are benefiting, and have benefited | :30:37. | :30:39. | |
from, the raising of the tax threshold. You now have to earn | :30:40. | :30:45. | |
?10,000, we hope eventually 12,500, and that means only people on very | :30:46. | :30:49. | |
low wages. If you opt out of national insurance, you're saying to | :30:50. | :30:53. | |
people that you make no contribution to the welfare system, so there is a | :30:54. | :30:58. | |
general principle that people should participate and paying, and also | :30:59. | :31:03. | |
claim when they need something out. We thought raising the threshold was | :31:04. | :31:07. | |
simple and effective at a time of economic austerity and the right way | :31:08. | :31:10. | |
to deliver a helpful support to welcoming people. -- working people. | :31:11. | :31:17. | |
With the Labour Party continue to raise the threshold, or do they | :31:18. | :31:20. | |
think there is a case that there are too many people being dragged into | :31:21. | :31:26. | |
the 40p tax bracket? If Norman Lamont thinks this is the right time | :31:27. | :31:30. | |
to benefit people who are reasonably well off rather than those who are | :31:31. | :31:33. | |
struggling to make ends meet, then genuinely, I say it respectfully, I | :31:34. | :31:37. | |
don't think he's living in the world the rest of us are. Most working | :31:38. | :31:42. | |
people have seen their wages effectively reduced by about ?1600 | :31:43. | :31:46. | |
because they have been frozen, so the right thing is to help people on | :31:47. | :31:52. | |
modest incomes. I also understand that if the 40% threshold went up, | :31:53. | :31:56. | |
the people who would benefit the most, as ever, are the people who | :31:57. | :32:00. | |
are really well off, not the people in the middle. The Conservatives | :32:01. | :32:05. | |
have already reduced the 50p tax on people over ?150,000 a year, and we | :32:06. | :32:10. | |
have to concentrate on the people going out to work, doing their best | :32:11. | :32:13. | |
to bring their children up and have a decent life and need a bit of | :32:14. | :32:17. | |
help. I think raising the threshold is a good thing. We would bring back | :32:18. | :32:21. | |
the 10p tax, which we should never have abolished, and do things with | :32:22. | :32:27. | |
regard to childcare. At the moment, childcare costs the average family | :32:28. | :32:31. | |
as much as their mortgage, for goodness sake. We would give 25 | :32:32. | :32:35. | |
hours free childcare for youngsters over three and four years old. That | :32:36. | :32:38. | |
would be a massive boost the working families. We are talking about | :32:39. | :32:46. | |
nurses, tube drivers, warrant officers in the army. There are many | :32:47. | :32:49. | |
people who are not well off but have been squeezed in the way everybody | :32:50. | :32:54. | |
has been squeezed and they are finding it continuing. I am stunned | :32:55. | :32:58. | |
by Malcolm's argument where everybody should pay something so | :32:59. | :33:02. | |
you should not take people out of national insurance, but the | :33:03. | :33:05. | |
principle doesn't apply to income tax. You can stand that argument on | :33:06. | :33:11. | |
its head and apply it to income tax. Most people don't see a difference | :33:12. | :33:14. | |
between income tax and national insurance, it's the same thing to | :33:15. | :33:19. | |
most people. It is true that it isn't really an insurance fund and | :33:20. | :33:22. | |
there is an argument from merging both of them. But we have | :33:23. | :33:28. | |
concentrated on a simple tax proposition. Norman is ignoring the | :33:29. | :33:34. | |
fact the people on the 40% rate have benefited by the raising of the | :33:35. | :33:37. | |
personal allowance. To say they have been squeezed is unfair. The | :33:38. | :33:40. | |
calculation is that an ordinary taxpayer will be ?700 better off at | :33:41. | :33:46. | |
the current threshold, and about ?500 better off at the higher rate. | :33:47. | :33:50. | |
It is misleading to say the better off we'll be paying more. I agree | :33:51. | :33:56. | |
with Hazel, if you go to the 40% rate, it's the higher earners who | :33:57. | :33:59. | |
benefit the most, and we won't do that when the economy is not where | :34:00. | :34:04. | |
it was before the crash. How much will the lower paid be better off if | :34:05. | :34:11. | |
you reintroduce the 10p rate? Significantly better off. I don't | :34:12. | :34:15. | |
have the figure myself, but they'd be significantly better off and the | :34:16. | :34:21. | |
Budget should be a mixture of measures to help people who work | :34:22. | :34:24. | |
hard. That is why I think the childcare issue has to be | :34:25. | :34:29. | |
addressed. ?100 a week of the people with childcare payments. It is a | :34:30. | :34:35. | |
massive issue. We want the job is guaranteed to get young people back | :34:36. | :34:38. | |
into work. There's been hardly any discussion about that, and we have | :34:39. | :34:41. | |
nearly 1 million people who have been out of work for six months or | :34:42. | :34:45. | |
more, and as a country we need to do something to help that. 350,000 | :34:46. | :34:52. | |
full-time students, so it is a misleading figure. It is not a | :34:53. | :34:55. | |
million including full-time students. All parties do this. It | :34:56. | :35:01. | |
sounds to me, Malcolm Bruce, you have more in common with the Labour | :35:02. | :35:05. | |
Party than you do with the Conservatives. You want an annual | :35:06. | :35:08. | |
levy on houses over ?2 million, so does Labour. A lot of your members | :35:09. | :35:13. | |
want to scrap the so-called bedroom tax and so does labour. You think | :35:14. | :35:17. | |
every teacher should have a teaching qualification, and so does Labour. | :35:18. | :35:21. | |
Your policy on the EU referendum is the same. Let me go on. And you want | :35:22. | :35:26. | |
to scrap the winter fuel allowance for wealthy pensioners. We want to | :35:27. | :35:31. | |
make sure we get the public finances in order and we have grave | :35:32. | :35:34. | |
reservations about the Labour Party promises. But they followed your | :35:35. | :35:44. | |
spending plans in the first year. The point we are making is we can | :35:45. | :35:47. | |
make a fairer society and stronger economy if you keep the public | :35:48. | :35:50. | |
finances moving towards balance. We don't think the Labour Party will | :35:51. | :35:55. | |
take a stand that track. It is interesting that the Labour Party | :35:56. | :35:58. | |
want to introduce the 10p rate that Gordon Brown abolished. We consider | :35:59. | :36:03. | |
that before we can -- committed to the 0% rate -- we considered that. | :36:04. | :36:10. | |
It makes a complicated system difficult and we think it's better | :36:11. | :36:15. | |
doing it that way. As a fiscal conservative, why are you talking | :36:16. | :36:17. | |
about any tax cuts when the deficit about any tax cuts when the deficit | :36:18. | :36:22. | |
is over ?100 billion, and effectively, anything you propose | :36:23. | :36:25. | |
today can only be financed by more borrowing. I totally agree with you. | :36:26. | :36:29. | |
I said that this week. I thought the best thing would have no Budget. The | :36:30. | :36:35. | |
main thing is to get the deficit down. My argument is is that you | :36:36. | :36:39. | |
have an adjustment in tax rates it should be shared between the | :36:40. | :36:41. | |
allowances and the higher rate, but I don't think that the progress on | :36:42. | :36:47. | |
the deficit is something we can give up on. This is still a very long way | :36:48. | :36:54. | |
to go. We're only halfway through. Hazel, does it make sense to borrow | :36:55. | :36:59. | |
for tax cuts? I am reluctant to do this, but I agree with both Norman | :37:00. | :37:06. | |
and Malcolm. Malcolm Bruce wants to borrow for tax cuts. We absolutely | :37:07. | :37:10. | |
need to get the deficit down and get finances on a strong footing. But we | :37:11. | :37:14. | |
also have to think about having some spending in the system that in the | :37:15. | :37:18. | |
longer run saves us money. We all know we need to build new homes. I | :37:19. | :37:22. | |
don't think it's necessarily the right priority to give people in | :37:23. | :37:28. | |
London mortgage relief in terms of ?600,000. We have to get the balance | :37:29. | :37:32. | |
right. Sometimes it is right to spend to save. I'm afraid we have | :37:33. | :37:38. | |
run out of time. There will be plenty more discussion in the lead | :37:39. | :37:40. | |
up to the Budget on Wednesday. It's just gone 11:35am. You're | :37:41. | :37:45. | |
watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who | :37:46. | :37:48. | |
leave us now for Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up here in 20 | :37:49. | :37:52. | |
minutes, Frances O'Grady, the General Secretary of the TUC, joins | :37:53. | :37:53. | |
us discuss the Welcome to Sunday Politics South, my | :37:54. | :38:07. | |
name's Peter Henley. On today's show: It might have stopped raining | :38:08. | :38:11. | |
but there's still the clearup from all the flooding to be done. We'll | :38:12. | :38:14. | |
be hearing whether the government's bailout scheme for all the | :38:15. | :38:16. | |
homeowners and farmers affected is actually working. More on that | :38:17. | :38:19. | |
shortly. First, let's meet the two politicians who'll be with me for | :38:20. | :38:22. | |
the next 20 minutes. George Hollingbery is the Conservative MP | :38:23. | :38:26. | |
for Meon Valley and John Denham is the Labour MP for Southampton | :38:27. | :38:37. | |
Itchen. Welcome both. John you have been highlighting the cost of living | :38:38. | :38:42. | |
in the South seeing that wages have dropped in real terms with people | :38:43. | :38:48. | |
more than ?2000 per year worse off. Housing costs are rising. Isn't that | :38:49. | :38:54. | |
cost of living crisis for people knew they would be getting when they | :38:55. | :39:01. | |
voted for austerity? I do not think so, they got by no the government | :39:02. | :39:06. | |
would have sorted out the budget and the economy. Keegan the south`east | :39:07. | :39:11. | |
winds are actually worse than other parts of the country. `` here in. | :39:12. | :39:19. | |
House prices have risen, child care is more expensive here than in | :39:20. | :39:24. | |
London. There is a real cost of living crisis. If you had actually | :39:25. | :39:30. | |
followed the strategy we had in 2010 when the economy was growing you | :39:31. | :39:34. | |
would have seen more growth which would have reduced more taxes to get | :39:35. | :39:40. | |
the deficit down faster. What has actually happened as we are in the | :39:41. | :39:44. | |
worst position today because we have had three years with no growth. The | :39:45. | :39:49. | |
cost of living crisis did not have to be as bad as it is and if we do | :39:50. | :39:55. | |
the things Labour wants to do, get a real house building programme going, | :39:56. | :40:00. | |
cut and freeze interest rates, reform the energy market, there are | :40:01. | :40:04. | |
practical things a government could do to tackle the cost of living | :40:05. | :40:10. | |
crisis. That is the future, what about the history? I do not want to | :40:11. | :40:17. | |
go into labour's ideas, that is up to them but everyone knows who | :40:18. | :40:21. | |
crashed the car in the first place and we had to deal with that. ?140 | :40:22. | :40:29. | |
billion had to be found. This country simply had to cut spending. | :40:30. | :40:36. | |
In the last year, unemployment has fallen by 23% in the south`east. The | :40:37. | :40:41. | |
economy is now one of the fastest growing in Europe and by next year | :40:42. | :40:45. | |
probably one of the fastest`growing in the GE. There is a long way to go | :40:46. | :40:51. | |
yet, the deficit still needs to be dealt with. What has actually | :40:52. | :40:56. | |
happened, which I find very strange coming from Labour, is that this | :40:57. | :41:01. | |
time around the unemployment that arose during the recession was | :41:02. | :41:06. | |
massively reduced because people took a view they would rather not | :41:07. | :41:10. | |
see wage rises and keep their jobs for the longer term, that is what | :41:11. | :41:17. | |
has happened. We have many jobs with low wages and many with low | :41:18. | :41:21. | |
productivity, people cannot afford the rising cost of living. The | :41:22. | :41:29. | |
deficit no longer needs to be dealt with now than it did three years | :41:30. | :41:36. | |
ago. It has not worked. It has worked and all you need to do is | :41:37. | :41:40. | |
look at international comparisons to know. We know we are the | :41:41. | :41:48. | |
fastest`growing economy in Europe. We will talk further about what | :41:49. | :41:52. | |
George Osborne will do in the budget any moment. A few weeks ago, | :41:53. | :41:56. | |
politicians, and the media to be honest, were completely obsessed | :41:57. | :41:59. | |
with water. Pouring down from the sky, bubbling up from the ground, | :42:00. | :42:02. | |
surging through people's homes. But now, the sun's shining, the Prime | :42:03. | :42:05. | |
Minister has waded in, and the government's providing compensation. | :42:06. | :42:07. | |
Problem solved. Well, maybe not quite, as our Berkshire political | :42:08. | :42:09. | |
reporter Patrick O'Hagan has been finding out. | :42:10. | :42:24. | |
This is `` seeds, silage might cut to feed the cows during the winter | :42:25. | :42:31. | |
when they are indoors. This should be cut in May but you can see the | :42:32. | :42:38. | |
graph is dead. This man has sheep and cattle and those graphs and | :42:39. | :42:45. | |
crops on his farm. He farms 1700 acres in all. The recent floods left | :42:46. | :42:51. | |
much of them underwater. It is only in the last few days that the water | :42:52. | :42:58. | |
has receded, exploding `` exposing the thick mud. It is only when you | :42:59. | :43:05. | |
see all your hard work floating down the river that you feel miffed. For | :43:06. | :43:14. | |
this woman the past few weeks have been some of the worst of her life. | :43:15. | :43:21. | |
The water had risen from the lamp post outside to within three inches | :43:22. | :43:28. | |
of the corner of my house. The water began rising until it was under her | :43:29. | :43:33. | |
floorboards but thankfully got no higher. She is still desperately | :43:34. | :43:39. | |
upset. I cannot put into words what... I cannot explain how awful | :43:40. | :43:46. | |
it has been and how important it makes you feel. The Prime Minister | :43:47. | :43:54. | |
has offered grants of up to 500 pounds to make your home resistant | :43:55. | :44:03. | |
to floods, to get one, you apply to your local council. Angela does not | :44:04. | :44:08. | |
know if it will be worth the effort. If we put in an application will it | :44:09. | :44:14. | |
take years to go through the sausage machine? I do not know the best way | :44:15. | :44:21. | |
to do it. In thousands of homes have been affected and should be | :44:22. | :44:27. | |
eligible. For big organisations like Basingstoke and Deane council, bids | :44:28. | :44:33. | |
are in already. It has bent ?400,000 on the floods and is applying to the | :44:34. | :44:36. | |
government scheme which helps councils cost the dash cover the | :44:37. | :44:45. | |
cost of emergencies. There is no way in which our residents should foot | :44:46. | :44:50. | |
the bill for something which is after all a natural disaster. I am | :44:51. | :44:56. | |
very confident we will get the money back. Farmers are offered | :44:57. | :45:04. | |
compensation of up to ?5,000 each but when dealing with our farm of | :45:05. | :45:09. | |
1700 acres in size, by thousand pounds does not get you very far. | :45:10. | :45:15. | |
Don't get me wrong, we are very thankful for the money, it did not | :45:16. | :45:20. | |
have to be done, but it is a drop in the ocean. Money is available to | :45:21. | :45:25. | |
help farmers replace damage crops and help homeowners re`waterproof | :45:26. | :45:30. | |
their walls and also to help councils recoup their costs but with | :45:31. | :45:35. | |
few ready to sit down and do the necessary paperwork it will be | :45:36. | :45:40. | |
months before we know if the money pledged by the government will be | :45:41. | :45:46. | |
enough to meet demand. In One of the first places to be affected in the | :45:47. | :45:49. | |
south was Hambledon in Hampshire, with roads disappearing under the | :45:50. | :45:52. | |
floodwater at the beginning of the year. It's only been this week that | :45:53. | :45:55. | |
they started removing the sandbags from the village. Tony Higham is the | :45:56. | :45:59. | |
chair of the Hambledon Flood Action Group and joins us now. It is the | :46:00. | :46:03. | |
human cost as much as the stuff you can put into spreadsheets and claim | :46:04. | :46:07. | |
back. Lost business as well as houses flooded. Yes, I felt so | :46:08. | :46:11. | |
terribly sorry for those people whose lives had been stood up side | :46:12. | :46:15. | |
down, people who are paddling in water at the moment, for the last 72 | :46:16. | :46:22. | |
days our flight has gone on, you cannot evaluate that in human costs. | :46:23. | :46:29. | |
Lost business as well from people who would have been doing work on | :46:30. | :46:33. | |
some of those houses and cannot, people who could not get out to | :46:34. | :46:41. | |
their vans as well. It is easy to look out for the shops or the pub | :46:42. | :46:47. | |
but if you are a window cleaner, a Gardner or a cleaner or something | :46:48. | :46:51. | |
and you cannot get to your clients you cannot work. Are people thinking | :46:52. | :47:08. | |
about filling those forms in? They are. At the moment we are trying to | :47:09. | :47:12. | |
stop people from flooding so it is still early days. The council will | :47:13. | :47:16. | |
have got the deal ready quite soon. You were a National Flood Forum, | :47:17. | :47:19. | |
were you not? Is the feeling they are one of anger? Are people saying | :47:20. | :47:23. | |
if you had spent more money we would not have this problem? Of course. Is | :47:24. | :47:31. | |
it important we do not forget about that now the sun is out? It is | :47:32. | :47:36. | |
important not to just have a barbecue summer and forget about it. | :47:37. | :47:43. | |
In 1944 we had this big ditch through the village of Hambledon and | :47:44. | :47:47. | |
that was filled in so that American tanks could be parked in the village | :47:48. | :47:52. | |
for D`day, our forefathers had it all sorted but what we have to do | :47:53. | :48:00. | |
now is replicate that ditch. The rowdy huge amount of lessons to be | :48:01. | :48:05. | |
learned, are we up to it as a country or are we wasting our time | :48:06. | :48:09. | |
trying to deal with something that has not happened for 70 years? | :48:10. | :48:20. | |
Hambledon has not had money spent. Are we ready as a country? I do not | :48:21. | :48:26. | |
think any country can afford to be ready for the kind of biblical | :48:27. | :48:32. | |
damage we suffered. It is worth noting that due to the efforts of | :48:33. | :48:36. | |
this government and the previous government, the trouble that was | :48:37. | :48:41. | |
encountered this time and the number of homes flooded were substantially | :48:42. | :48:46. | |
lower than 2001. It is something we can celebrate from both sides of the | :48:47. | :48:53. | |
political fence. I do not think with the kind of deluge we saw any more | :48:54. | :48:58. | |
investment would have made a huge difference. Winchester this time | :48:59. | :49:05. | |
flooded much later and for lifelong ban it had done previously and one | :49:06. | :49:09. | |
of the key differences was just above Winchester the Moors had been | :49:10. | :49:18. | |
in new ownership and the flooded in a different way and did not reach | :49:19. | :49:29. | |
out which helped Winchester. I think we should worry that some of the | :49:30. | :49:34. | |
expertise may be lost if we get as many redundancies as are planned in | :49:35. | :49:40. | |
the environment agencies, staff who know about this stuff. The chief | :49:41. | :49:45. | |
scientific officer said with climate change events like this will happen | :49:46. | :49:51. | |
more and more often. That was a big investment started in flood | :49:52. | :49:55. | |
prevention. We have got to sustain that. My worry is that the secretary | :49:56. | :50:00. | |
of state removed flood prevention from his list of departmental | :50:01. | :50:06. | |
priorities and he does not believe in climate change. There are no | :50:07. | :50:10. | |
magic wands but you need government who understand these once in 100 | :50:11. | :50:14. | |
year events that happen every four or five years now. They are going to | :50:15. | :50:19. | |
happen more often and investing in dealing with floods will be as much | :50:20. | :50:23. | |
a part of the national infrastructure as railways or roads | :50:24. | :50:29. | |
or railway lines. The key test will be, do they now understand this is | :50:30. | :50:34. | |
not something that can be put on one side? What feeling do you get about | :50:35. | :50:43. | |
that? As far as our pipe is concerned, this is obviously an | :50:44. | :50:48. | |
investment, we have had the Environment Agency rules formula for | :50:49. | :50:55. | |
the last nine years, the formula still remains. You think the formula | :50:56. | :51:06. | |
is wrong? Yes, you divide the number of properties protected into the | :51:07. | :51:10. | |
cost of the pipe and if it does not work, they will say it does not work | :51:11. | :51:16. | |
this year or next year or ever, then we have a problem with the formula | :51:17. | :51:21. | |
for a small rural community. The Prime Minister has said more | :51:22. | :51:24. | |
flexibility has to be used as far as this formula is concerned for small | :51:25. | :51:31. | |
rural communities. Thank you for talking to us about it. In just | :51:32. | :51:35. | |
under two months we'll be going to the polls to elect the next European | :51:36. | :51:38. | |
Parliament. We've heard a lot recently about how the parties will | :51:39. | :51:41. | |
renegotiate terms or offer an in/out referendum. But what's their pitch | :51:42. | :51:45. | |
to get us to vote for them at the end of May? We went over to Brussels | :51:46. | :51:50. | |
to talk to MEPs from the five parties with representation in our | :51:51. | :51:53. | |
region. Over the next five weeks we'll be hearing from all of them, | :51:54. | :52:00. | |
today it's the Liberal Democrats. The reason to vote Liberal Democrat | :52:01. | :52:04. | |
is because we believe in making this place work. It needs a lot of reform | :52:05. | :52:10. | |
but we are here leading because for reform, we are determined to get the | :52:11. | :52:16. | |
benefits of Europe for Britain. Until recently he was one of the | :52:17. | :52:20. | |
UK's most the new European politicians. He counts | :52:21. | :52:24. | |
crime`fighting among his achievements in the last five years. | :52:25. | :52:32. | |
I have continued some of my earlier work in getting our police forces | :52:33. | :52:39. | |
working together across frontiers to tackle the increasing problem of | :52:40. | :52:42. | |
internationally organised crime. This is one of the areas where I | :52:43. | :52:47. | |
think Britain benefit hugely from our membership of the European Union | :52:48. | :52:51. | |
and weird I disagree with the Visa me and those conservatives who want | :52:52. | :52:55. | |
to bring us out of things like the European arrest warrant. Surely at | :52:56. | :53:03. | |
the moment it is for controlling our own borders and increasing our | :53:04. | :53:07. | |
sovereignty? It says and I am pleased to see the cutting | :53:08. | :53:10. | |
government has done much more of that than the previous government | :53:11. | :53:15. | |
did. To fight crime, as any police officer will tell you, you need to | :53:16. | :53:19. | |
have your police forces and your judiciary is working together. One | :53:20. | :53:27. | |
of my jobs as an MEP is to explain what I do here. I spent time talking | :53:28. | :53:33. | |
to people, people who often have experience through their | :53:34. | :53:36. | |
professional lives, with other parts of the European Union, we have to | :53:37. | :53:42. | |
tell them what we do and why. I wish there were more people arguing that | :53:43. | :53:48. | |
case. We are the party of in. We will go out and take on the | :53:49. | :53:54. | |
anti`Europeans, the narrow nationalists in this debate. We | :53:55. | :53:58. | |
cannot have a country who would say you can put the blankets over your | :53:59. | :54:02. | |
head and hope the world would go away. I want us to be a generous, | :54:03. | :54:06. | |
tolerant and outward looking country. That means being a member | :54:07. | :54:14. | |
of many of the great institutions we have helped to shape. I Cannes | :54:15. | :54:19. | |
surely this is bad timing for people who share your opinions. The tabloid | :54:20. | :54:29. | |
press say people of the United Kingdom are viscerally opposed to | :54:30. | :54:35. | |
our membership of the European Union. I do not believe that, I feel | :54:36. | :54:39. | |
people have got thoroughly fed up with this negative debate about | :54:40. | :54:46. | |
Europe and constantly taking credit for Westminster for everything that | :54:47. | :54:50. | |
goes right while blaming Brussels for what goes wrong. We might see an | :54:51. | :54:55. | |
increase in the turnout at this election and I think more of the | :54:56. | :54:58. | |
pro`Europeans will come out and make themselves heard. And over the next | :54:59. | :55:05. | |
few weeks we'll be hearing in turn from the Conservatives, UKIP, Labour | :55:06. | :55:08. | |
and the Green Party. Wednesday sees the budget of course, what are you | :55:09. | :55:18. | |
hoping to hear from the Chancellor? A starting rate of being tax or 40p | :55:19. | :55:28. | |
tax threshold being raised? I think the decision to cut the top rate of | :55:29. | :55:33. | |
tax was wrong at a time when the country is struggling. I think there | :55:34. | :55:37. | |
should be changes to the bank bonuses so we can afford to have a | :55:38. | :55:43. | |
proper job creation or gram for long`term unemployed young people. I | :55:44. | :55:48. | |
would like to see action taken to freeze and cut business rates. The | :55:49. | :55:53. | |
things Labour have been setting out our things we would do if we were | :55:54. | :55:57. | |
writing the budget this week. I doubt we will see those things. | :55:58. | :56:04. | |
These are things Ed balls would do as Chancellor? They are things we | :56:05. | :56:10. | |
have set out that we would do if we were in government facing the | :56:11. | :56:14. | |
challenges of today. Although the growth we have had at the moment is | :56:15. | :56:19. | |
welcome it is a long way from being sustained and being fair. There are | :56:20. | :56:23. | |
many families here in southern England who viewed the economy is | :56:24. | :56:27. | |
doing better then they look at their own pockets and household incomes | :56:28. | :56:31. | |
and it does not feel like that to them. In those circumstances why was | :56:32. | :56:36. | |
cutting the top rate of tax a priority for the country? There are | :56:37. | :56:42. | |
still redundancies to come, all the austerity still has to carry through | :56:43. | :56:47. | |
and people 's wages will not rise, we saw that with the public sector. | :56:48. | :56:53. | |
The public sector pay rise this year will be 1%. Why Glasgow people are | :56:54. | :57:02. | |
not feeling better. Every household, a government, anybody is any | :57:03. | :57:05. | |
position where they cannot afford their expenditure, they have to cut | :57:06. | :57:09. | |
it back. In the public sector the biggest cost is people and we have | :57:10. | :57:17. | |
to keep a tax `` that. And the very bottom end I want to see the | :57:18. | :57:21. | |
threshold rising, more people taken out of tax at the bottom end. In | :57:22. | :57:31. | |
other words, fewer people paying any tax at all. The people who earn the | :57:32. | :57:36. | |
least read the least tax that seems obvious. To be clear, the best way | :57:37. | :57:42. | |
we can help the United Kingdom and its way forward in the world is to | :57:43. | :57:49. | |
make sure we can pay our way. The only way to do that is control | :57:50. | :57:56. | |
public spending. If we have got room for tax cuts they should be at the | :57:57. | :58:02. | |
bottom end. If I was in the health service I would think you have spent | :58:03. | :58:06. | |
?3 billion on a health service reorganisation that nobody wanted so | :58:07. | :58:10. | |
the government is prepared to waste money on that scale, they are in no | :58:11. | :58:14. | |
position to lecture people about how they spend. We managed to maintain | :58:15. | :58:22. | |
the health service in real terms. Let's move on. Now our regular | :58:23. | :58:28. | |
round`up of the political week in the South in 60 seconds, and where | :58:29. | :58:31. | |
we discover that everything has a price. What price peace and quiet? | :58:32. | :58:44. | |
?1000 according to Gatwick Airport who are offering the cash to people | :58:45. | :58:48. | |
living nearby if they are allowed to build a second runway. Oxford City | :58:49. | :58:55. | |
Council say rising property prices are causing them to offer properties | :58:56. | :59:01. | |
as far away as Birmingham. Many say that is too far. The army tried to | :59:02. | :59:08. | |
save a shilling by replacing regular soldiers with reservists but | :59:09. | :59:12. | |
admitted mistakes in the outsourced recruitment process may leave them | :59:13. | :59:16. | |
short`staffed. Launching a new Parliamentary maths group is Gosport | :59:17. | :59:25. | |
MP backed teaching maths to those aged 18 to improve jobs. Some fancy | :59:26. | :59:33. | |
engineering in these drones being tested by Sussex Place, the cost of | :59:34. | :59:38. | |
this idea in the sky is ?35,000 each. Everything has a price. This | :59:39. | :59:50. | |
week we are mourning the death of Bob Crow and Tony Benn, everybody in | :59:51. | :59:56. | |
the eulogy said men of principles but at the time a lot of people | :59:57. | :00:00. | |
disagreed with those principles, are we typically? Know, most people in | :00:01. | :00:08. | |
Labour politics actually said they respected Margaret Thatcher. They | :00:09. | :00:13. | |
did not agree with her but there is a desire in politics and the public | :00:14. | :00:17. | |
for conviction politics. People were you know what they stand for and | :00:18. | :00:23. | |
where they are coming from. I was pleased people from the right paid | :00:24. | :00:35. | |
tribute to these two men. I saw Tony Benn in theatre, he was very | :00:36. | :00:42. | |
entertaining to listen to. There is room for those people in politics | :00:43. | :00:47. | |
and in life, he was a remarkable man. That's the Sunday Politics in | :00:48. | :00:50. | |
the South, thanks to my guests George Hollingbery and John Denham. | :00:51. | :00:53. | |
Don't forget to keep up`to`date with southern politics by reading my | :00:54. | :00:55. | |
blog, there's the failure marked success. -- not | :00:56. | :00:55. | |
success. Andrew, back to you. Has George Osborne got a rabbit in | :00:56. | :01:13. | |
his Budget hat? Will the Chancellor find a way to help the squeezed | :01:14. | :01:16. | |
middle? And how do Labour respond? All questions for The Week Ahead. | :01:17. | :01:24. | |
And joining Helen, Janan and Nick to discuss the budget is the general | :01:25. | :01:28. | |
secretary of the Trades Union Congress Frances O'Grady. Welcome | :01:29. | :01:33. | |
back to the programme. I know the TUC has a submission, but if you | :01:34. | :01:37. | |
could pick one thing that you wanted the Chancellor to do above all, what | :01:38. | :01:42. | |
would it be? We want a budget for working people, which means we have | :01:43. | :01:46. | |
to crack the long-term problem of investment in the British economy. | :01:47. | :01:52. | |
Certainly I would like the Chancellor to merit that title they | :01:53. | :01:58. | |
want of the new workers party, and take action on living standards, but | :01:59. | :02:01. | |
if they're going to do that it's got to be about unlocking investment. In | :02:02. | :02:12. | |
the period where the economy has been flat-lining there has been | :02:13. | :02:15. | |
little business investment, but there are signs towards the end of | :02:16. | :02:18. | |
last year that it is beginning to pick up. But a long way to go. The | :02:19. | :02:25. | |
problem is we have key industries like construction and manufacturing | :02:26. | :02:27. | |
that are still smaller than they were before the recession. The | :02:28. | :02:33. | |
government itself, of course, has slashed its own capital investment | :02:34. | :02:39. | |
budget by half. There is plenty of good and important work that needs | :02:40. | :02:42. | |
to be done from building houses to improving the transport system, to | :02:43. | :02:48. | |
improving our schools. And the government really needs to pick up | :02:49. | :02:53. | |
that shovel and start investing in our economy to get the decent jobs | :02:54. | :02:57. | |
we need, the pay increases we need, and that in itself will help | :02:58. | :03:02. | |
stimulate demand. It was Alistair Darling who cut in 2011, and it's | :03:03. | :03:09. | |
interesting that Ed Balls in his plans for the next parliament would | :03:10. | :03:13. | |
run a current budget surplus by the end of the parliament as opposed to | :03:14. | :03:17. | |
George Osborne who would have an overall budget surplus. That gives | :03:18. | :03:21. | |
Ed Balls or -- more wriggle room to do what you talk about, but he is | :03:22. | :03:25. | |
reticent to talk about it. He does not want to say that he has an | :03:26. | :03:28. | |
opportunity to spend on investment because he fears if he says it he | :03:29. | :03:31. | |
will be attacked by the Conservatives for being | :03:32. | :03:35. | |
irresponsible. Why is business doing this? The recession was deeper than | :03:36. | :03:41. | |
any since the war and the recovery was slower than almost any since the | :03:42. | :03:47. | |
war. The lag, the time it takes to get over that is longer than anyone | :03:48. | :03:52. | |
expected. I read the same evidence as you towards the end of last year | :03:53. | :03:57. | |
pointing to money being released, and it depends what it is released | :03:58. | :04:01. | |
on, whether it is capital investment or bringing in people on higher | :04:02. | :04:05. | |
wages. The one surprise in the downturn is how well the employment | :04:06. | :04:10. | |
figures have done, but they have not invested in new capacity and they | :04:11. | :04:13. | |
are sitting on a lot of dosh. I looked at one set of figures that | :04:14. | :04:18. | |
said if you took the biggest company in Britain, they have about 715 | :04:19. | :04:24. | |
billion pounds in corporate treasury -- the biggest companies. I think | :04:25. | :04:28. | |
it's reduced a little but they are sitting on a mountain in dash of | :04:29. | :04:34. | |
skills. Yes, but they're not investing in skills, wages, or | :04:35. | :04:38. | |
sustainable jobs. The new jobs we have seen created since 2010, the | :04:39. | :04:43. | |
vast majority of them have been in low paid industries, and they are | :04:44. | :04:48. | |
often zero hours, or insecure, or part-time. So it's not delivering a | :04:49. | :04:52. | |
recovery for ordinary working people. Government ministers, as you | :04:53. | :04:57. | |
know when you lobby them, they are anxious to make out that they know | :04:58. | :05:01. | |
the job is not done and the recovery has just begun, but the one bit they | :05:02. | :05:06. | |
are privately proud of, although they can't explain it, is how many | :05:07. | :05:11. | |
private-sector jobs have been created. A lot of unions have done | :05:12. | :05:15. | |
sensible deals with employers to protect jobs through this period, | :05:16. | :05:19. | |
but it's not sustainable. The average worker in Britain today is | :05:20. | :05:24. | |
now ?2000 a year worse off in real terms than they were. On a pay | :05:25. | :05:31. | |
against price comparison? It doesn't take into account tax cuts. The | :05:32. | :05:39. | |
raising of the personal allowance is far outweighed by the raising VAT. | :05:40. | :05:46. | |
Does the raising of the threshold which the Lib Dems are proud of and | :05:47. | :05:49. | |
the Tories are trying to trade credit for, does it matter to your | :05:50. | :05:55. | |
members? -- take credit for. It matters that it is eclipsed by the | :05:56. | :06:00. | |
cuts in benefits and know what is conned any more. We're going to hear | :06:01. | :06:03. | |
a lot about the raising of the allowance, but as long as the real | :06:04. | :06:09. | |
value of work, tax credits, things like that, people won't feel it in | :06:10. | :06:12. | |
their pocket, and they will find it harder and harder to look after | :06:13. | :06:16. | |
their family. When you look at the other things that could take over | :06:17. | :06:19. | |
from consumer spending which has driven the recovery, held by house | :06:20. | :06:24. | |
price rising in the south, it is exports and business investment, and | :06:25. | :06:27. | |
you look at the state of the Eurozone and the emerging markets | :06:28. | :06:31. | |
which are now in trouble, and the winter seems to have derailed the US | :06:32. | :06:35. | |
recovery. It won't be exports. Indeed, the Obie Eich does not think | :06:36. | :06:42. | |
that will contribute to growth until 2015 -- OBI. So the figures we | :06:43. | :06:47. | |
should be looking at our business investment. And also the deficit. | :06:48. | :06:54. | |
The deficit is 111 billion, and that is a problem, because we are not at | :06:55. | :06:58. | |
the end of the cutting process, there are huge cuts to be made. I | :06:59. | :07:03. | |
understand we are only a third of the way through. That will | :07:04. | :07:06. | |
definitely affect business confidence. It is clear that the | :07:07. | :07:10. | |
strategy has failed. Borrowing has gone up and it's not delivered | :07:11. | :07:13. | |
improved living standards and better quality jobs, so cutting out of the | :07:14. | :07:20. | |
recession is not going to work. The structural budget deficit was going | :07:21. | :07:23. | |
to be eliminated three weeks today under the original plan. They missed | :07:24. | :07:30. | |
target after target. Every economist has their own definition of that. I | :07:31. | :07:35. | |
think Mark Carney is right when he says that fundamentally the economy | :07:36. | :07:40. | |
is unbalanced and it is not sustainable, growth is not | :07:41. | :07:44. | |
sustainable. But if it clicked on, it would be more balanced. It is not | :07:45. | :07:51. | |
just north and south and manufacturing a way out with | :07:52. | :07:54. | |
services, but it is also between the rich and everybody else. What do you | :07:55. | :08:00. | |
make of the fact that there will effectively be another freezing | :08:01. | :08:02. | |
public sector pay, or at least no more than 1%? Not even that for | :08:03. | :08:10. | |
nurses and health workers. But they will get 3% progression pay. 70% of | :08:11. | :08:15. | |
nurses will not get any pay rise at all. They get no progression pay at | :08:16. | :08:20. | |
all. I think this is smack in the mouth. Smack in the mouth to | :08:21. | :08:25. | |
dedicated health care workers who will feel very, very discontented | :08:26. | :08:31. | |
about the decision. Danny Alexander, I saw him appealing to | :08:32. | :08:35. | |
health workers do not move to strike ballots and said they should talk to | :08:36. | :08:42. | |
their department. But about what? Is that real pay cut has been imposed, | :08:43. | :08:47. | |
what are workers left with? So do you expect as a result of yet more | :08:48. | :08:53. | |
tough controls on public sector pay that unrest is inevitable? I know | :08:54. | :08:58. | |
some unions will be consulting with their members, but ultimately it's | :08:59. | :09:03. | |
always members who decide what to do. It does seem to me insulting not | :09:04. | :09:07. | |
to at least be honest and say that we are cutting real pay of nurses, | :09:08. | :09:17. | |
health care workers, on the back of a ?3 billion reorganisation of the | :09:18. | :09:19. | |
NHS that nobody wanted and nobody voted for. Their long-term changes | :09:20. | :09:27. | |
taking place here that almost talks about -- there are long-term | :09:28. | :09:31. | |
changes. It is how lower percentage wages have become of GDP on how big | :09:32. | :09:38. | |
the percentage of profits is. It seems to me there is a strong case | :09:39. | :09:43. | |
for some kind of realignment there. The biggest event of my life, in | :09:44. | :09:48. | |
this world, is the entry of a couple of billion more people into the | :09:49. | :09:51. | |
labour supply. At the end of the Cold War, India and China plugged | :09:52. | :09:55. | |
into the global economy. If there is a greater supply of that factor of | :09:56. | :09:59. | |
production, logically you conclude that wages will fall or stagnate and | :10:00. | :10:04. | |
that has been the story in this country and America and large parts | :10:05. | :10:07. | |
of Western Europe in the last generation. What is not possible is | :10:08. | :10:11. | |
for governments to do much about it. They can ameliorate it at the | :10:12. | :10:15. | |
margins, but the idea that the government controls living | :10:16. | :10:19. | |
standards, which has become popular over the last six months, and the | :10:20. | :10:22. | |
Labour Party have in establishing that, and I don't think it's true. | :10:23. | :10:27. | |
George Osborne's options are astonishingly limited compared to | :10:28. | :10:32. | |
public expectations. If wages have reached a modern record low as | :10:33. | :10:36. | |
percentage of GDP, who is going to champion the wage earner? We have | :10:37. | :10:42. | |
lost Bob Crow, Tony Benn passed away, so who is the champion? The | :10:43. | :10:47. | |
trade union movement is the champion of ordinary workers. We need those | :10:48. | :10:52. | |
larger-than-life figures that we will mess. Have you got them yet? We | :10:53. | :10:59. | |
have a generation of workers coming through. One thing about the loss of | :11:00. | :11:04. | |
Bob Crow is that the whole union movement has responded strongly to | :11:05. | :11:07. | |
that, and we want to say that we are strong and united and here to stand | :11:08. | :11:11. | |
up for working people and we will fight as hard as Bob Crow did. | :11:12. | :11:15. | |
Whoever replaces Bob Crow or Tony Benn, we can be sure they will not | :11:16. | :11:19. | |
come from Eton because they all have jobs in the government. I want to | :11:20. | :11:23. | |
put up on the screen what even Michael Gove was saying about this | :11:24. | :11:25. | |
coterie of Old Etonian 's. He's right, is he not? He's | :11:26. | :11:40. | |
absolutely right. We have the idea of the manifesto being written by | :11:41. | :11:45. | |
five people from Eton and one from Saint Pauls. A remarkable example of | :11:46. | :11:52. | |
social mobility that George Osborne, who had the disadvantage of going to | :11:53. | :11:55. | |
Saint Pauls has made it into that inner circle. Here is the question, | :11:56. | :12:03. | |
what is Michael Gove up to? If you saw the response from George | :12:04. | :12:06. | |
Osborne, there was no slap down, and they know this is an area they are | :12:07. | :12:09. | |
weak on an David Cameron will not comment on it. If this had been a | :12:10. | :12:14. | |
Labour shadow minister making a similarly disloyal statement, they | :12:15. | :12:18. | |
might have been shot at dawn. But there is a real tolerance from | :12:19. | :12:22. | |
Michael Gove to go freelance which comes from George Osborne. It's | :12:23. | :12:26. | |
about highlighting educational reforms that he wants to turn every | :12:27. | :12:29. | |
school in to eat and so it won't happen in the future. But it's also | :12:30. | :12:32. | |
pointing out who did not go to Eton school and who would be the best | :12:33. | :12:37. | |
candidate to replace David Cameron as leader, George Osborne, and who | :12:38. | :12:40. | |
did go to Eton school, Boris Johnson. Michael Gove is on | :12:41. | :12:44. | |
manoeuvres to destroy Boris Johnson's chances of being leader. | :12:45. | :12:51. | |
It's a good job they don't have an election to worry about. Hold on. I | :12:52. | :12:57. | |
think they are out of touch with businesses as well as working | :12:58. | :13:01. | |
people. You ask about who is talking about wage earners. Businesses are. | :13:02. | :13:04. | |
They are worried that unless living standards rise again there will be | :13:05. | :13:09. | |
nobody there to buy anything. We are running out of time, but the TUC, | :13:10. | :13:15. | |
are enthusiastic about HS2? We supported. We think it's the kind of | :13:16. | :13:20. | |
infrastructure project that we need to invest in long-term. He could, if | :13:21. | :13:25. | |
we get it right, rebalance north and south and create good jobs along the | :13:26. | :13:29. | |
way -- it could. Thank you very much tool. I have to say that every week | :13:30. | :13:35. | |
-- thank you very much to you all. That's all for today. I'll be back | :13:36. | :13:39. | |
next Sunday at 11am, and Jo Coburn will be on BBC Two tomorrow at | :13:40. | :13:44. | |
midday with the Daily Politics. Remember if it's Sunday, it's the | :13:45. | :13:46. | |
Sunday Politics. | :13:47. | :13:48. |