04/05/2014 Sunday Politics Wales


04/05/2014

Similar Content

Browse content similar to 04/05/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Walls are being

:00:37.:00:42.

re-painted in Belfast as Gerry Adams begins his fourth day in police

:00:43.:00:45.

custody in connection with one of the most brutal and shocking murders

:00:46.:00:49.

of the Troubles. That's our top story.

:00:50.:01:00.

He may have got egg on his face this week but Nigel Farage is a serious

:01:01.:01:03.

electoral threat in this month's elections. I'll ask the Conservative

:01:04.:01:06.

Party Chairman Grant Shapps how worried he is.

:01:07.:01:08.

And we're on the trail of Nick Clegg. You were voted the best

:01:09.:01:13.

Later in the programme... likely to be a good

:01:14.:01:20.

Later in the programme... We start our coverage of the

:01:21.:01:22.

European elections in Wales. And the campaign against Scottish

:01:23.:01:25.

independence says keeping the UK intact is in Wales' interests.

:01:26.:01:27.

independence says keeping the UK and independence. We have a table

:01:28.:01:31.

full of Euro candidates here to debate what it means for London.

:01:32.:01:38.

And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political panel in the

:01:39.:01:41.

business - Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. They'll be

:01:42.:01:44.

throwing metaphorical rotten eggs into the twittersphere.

:01:45.:01:50.

First this morning - Gerry Adams, President of Sinn Fein, has spent a

:01:51.:01:53.

fourth night in police custody after he was arrested in connection with

:01:54.:01:56.

the killing of Jean McConville more than 40 years ago. Sinn Fein has

:01:57.:02:09.

claimed that the arrest is politically motivated coming, as it

:02:10.:02:11.

does, during local and European election campaigns. Northern

:02:12.:02:15.

Ireland's deputy first minister, Martin McGuinness, has indicated he

:02:16.:02:17.

might review the party's support for policing in the province if Gerry

:02:18.:02:20.

Adams is charged. The Jean McConville murder was one of the

:02:21.:02:23.

most notorious cases of the Troubles.

:02:24.:02:25.

The widowed mother of ten was kidnapped from her home in December

:02:26.:02:32.

1972, never to be seen alive again. The IRA denied involvement but in

:02:33.:02:38.

1999 admitted it had murdered her and several others, known as the

:02:39.:02:45.

Disappeared. Before his death, the former IRA commander Brendan Hughes

:02:46.:02:47.

pointed the finger at Gerry Adams, claiming:

:02:48.:02:55.

In April this year, either Bell was charged with aiding and abetting the

:02:56.:03:09.

murder. -- Ivor Bell. Gerry Adams has always insisted he is innocent

:03:10.:03:14.

of any part in the abduction and killing all burial of Mrs

:03:15.:03:19.

McConville. We were hoping to speak to the

:03:20.:03:21.

Northern Ireland Secretary, Theresa Villiers, but having agreed to do an

:03:22.:03:25.

interview with us this morning, she pulled out. But we are joined from

:03:26.:03:32.

Belfast by Sinn Fein's Alex Maskey. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. And

:03:33.:03:37.

the police just doing their job by questioning Gerry Adams? Gerry Adams

:03:38.:03:49.

said publicly some time ago that he was available to speak to the

:03:50.:03:53.

police, but that is not what this is about at the moment, because what we

:03:54.:03:59.

have here is clearly evidence in our mind of political interference in

:04:00.:04:03.

what should be due process. Gerry Adams made it clear some time ago he

:04:04.:04:07.

wanted to speak to the police, it was available at any time, and yet

:04:08.:04:13.

that request was not taken up until three weeks into an election and we

:04:14.:04:17.

believe that was deliberately orchestrated by a small number of

:04:18.:04:22.

people. What evidence can you present this morning that proves

:04:23.:04:29.

that claim? The direct circumstances Gerry Adams finds himself in at the

:04:30.:04:36.

moment, take that in stark contrast when they have dealt with members of

:04:37.:04:46.

the British Army for instance... That is just circumstantial. The

:04:47.:04:55.

PSNI know that the soldiers involved in that and a number of other

:04:56.:05:00.

high-profile killings of citizens here, and not one of those people

:05:01.:05:05.

has been arrested. In fact any of the people who were interviewed were

:05:06.:05:10.

interviewed by request. There was a stark contrast, in terms of how they

:05:11.:05:21.

have dealt with the British military involving state killings. We haven't

:05:22.:05:26.

got too much time. Sinn Fein said it would review its support for the

:05:27.:05:31.

PSNI if Gerry Adams is charged. That sounds like political interference

:05:32.:05:36.

in the police process. It's not because we have a clear mandate from

:05:37.:05:42.

the people who elect us. Policing has been an important part of the

:05:43.:05:47.

peace process here for many years, Sinn Fein plays an important role in

:05:48.:05:53.

local policing partnerships. We negotiate to make sure we have

:05:54.:05:58.

powers transferred here to elected representatives in the north. It is

:05:59.:06:05.

a long way to go before we have policing highly accountable, and

:06:06.:06:10.

making sure they deliver a very impartial service. How will he react

:06:11.:06:27.

if Gerry Adams is charged? I am still trying to get a clear answer.

:06:28.:06:32.

If Gerry Adams is charged, will you withdraw support for the Northern

:06:33.:06:39.

Ireland police service? We view this as a serious situation and a serious

:06:40.:06:44.

ongoing situation and we will monitor how this pans out. We have a

:06:45.:06:49.

very important role to play to support the police service here. We

:06:50.:06:53.

have done consistently, worked with them on a daily basis, but we will

:06:54.:07:00.

not accept political interference by a small number of people in the

:07:01.:07:04.

police who are undermining the police. We will not accept political

:07:05.:07:12.

policing. If there was evidence, and I emphasise the word if, because we

:07:13.:07:18.

have seen none, but if there were evidence to justify Gerry Adams

:07:19.:07:22.

being charged, why should he not be charged? It is my understanding from

:07:23.:07:27.

the family of Gerry Adams that there has not been a single shred of

:07:28.:07:33.

evidence put forward. I understand that, but if there was evidence, why

:07:34.:07:42.

should he not be charged? You put that caveat yourself and then you

:07:43.:07:45.

expect me to speculate, there is no way I will do that. The fact of the

:07:46.:07:51.

matter is there hasn't been one single shred of evidence put to

:07:52.:07:55.

Gerry Adams in the last few days, in fact what has been put to him is a

:07:56.:08:00.

range of issues of newspaper cuttings, books, statements made

:08:01.:08:05.

from people, including from people who didn't want their statements

:08:06.:08:07.

released until they have died. who didn't want their statements

:08:08.:08:18.

was charged, again I emphasise the word if, does the police process

:08:19.:08:25.

fall apart? The police process is a fragile entity, it requires work and

:08:26.:08:30.

we have been saying this publicly and privately with the Irish and

:08:31.:08:31.

British and privately with the Irish and

:08:32.:08:46.

process has to be nurtured and developed. We are not out of the

:08:47.:08:48.

woods yet. From a Republican point of view we have been working flat

:08:49.:08:54.

out. I just wanted a quick answer to my question, is a yes or no? What

:08:55.:09:02.

question I asking me? Is the peace process in jeopardy? It is fragile

:09:03.:09:07.

and I am not going to have words put into my mouth but I don't want to

:09:08.:09:13.

use. It has to be worked out and nurtured. Thank you for joining us.

:09:14.:09:20.

Nick Watt, you were a Northern Ireland correspondent like myself in

:09:21.:09:25.

days gone by. Where is this going to go? It shows how challenging the

:09:26.:09:30.

peace process is because on the one hand you have the unspeakable pain

:09:31.:09:33.

of the McConville family, but you also have the danger of not having

:09:34.:09:39.

mechanisms to deal with the past. South Africa is a good example, you

:09:40.:09:43.

have to have some mechanism to deal with the past because if you don't,

:09:44.:09:47.

you are going to have, as Sinn Fein have now, someone in a police cell

:09:48.:09:58.

but you don't have the arrests of the Bloody Sunday soldiers.

:09:59.:10:01.

Paramilitary prisoners were released after two years... We have seen no

:10:02.:10:09.

action against somebody accused of the Hyde Park bombings, it is not a

:10:10.:10:16.

one-way street. We have the decommissioning of IRA weapons by

:10:17.:10:24.

the IRA, therefore destroying crucial evidence. You have these

:10:25.:10:27.

inconsistencies because you don't have an mechanism for dealing with

:10:28.:10:32.

the past, but doing that is really difficult because of the pain of

:10:33.:10:36.

real people. Don't you get a feeling that here in London they are hoping

:10:37.:10:41.

he will not be charged? Definitely because it would be nice if

:10:42.:10:45.

everything went away, but the civil case of the family is taken out of

:10:46.:10:54.

the hands of the police. You can see here a real failure in Westminster

:10:55.:10:57.

to see this as anything other than settled. David Cameron we know sees

:10:58.:11:06.

himself as a chairman. I was speaking to a friend in Northern

:11:07.:11:09.

Ireland who said he has never met Gerry Adams and I think this is very

:11:10.:11:14.

revealing. They consider this as a settled issue that will not trouble

:11:15.:11:20.

Westminster again. It would be, but the relatives of the disappeared

:11:21.:11:25.

don't want it to be settled. This points to the reality that the

:11:26.:11:28.

Belfast agreement probably had to be done, but the moral price at which

:11:29.:11:34.

it was purchased was far greater than we were willing to admit during

:11:35.:11:39.

the euphoria. For a country that prides itself by the rule of law to

:11:40.:11:43.

tolerate the early release of prisoners and former pal and

:11:44.:11:51.

military -- paramilitaries, I think was a very serious matter. As for

:11:52.:11:58.

the PSNI, it only exists because its predecessor failed to command the

:11:59.:12:02.

confidence of the nationalist community. It is a very big deal if

:12:03.:12:09.

even the PSNI ends up falling into the same trap. We have to is leave

:12:10.:12:21.

it there I'm afraid. It was the Conservative's local election

:12:22.:12:24.

campaign launch on Friday, and what did David Cameron focus on? Burning

:12:25.:12:27.

local issues like the state of our roads, rubbish collection or care of

:12:28.:12:30.

the elderly? No. It was Europe. The Prime Minister re-iterated again his

:12:31.:12:33.

promise of an in-out referendum on our membership of the EU in 2017.

:12:34.:12:36.

And it's being reported this morning that he will share a platform with

:12:37.:12:39.

Nigel Farage in a pre-general election debate. Here's what the

:12:40.:12:43.

UKIP leader had to say about the issue when he was on the Marr Show

:12:44.:12:51.

this morning with Ed Miliband. David Cameron very often makes these vague

:12:52.:12:55.

promises, then doesn't deliver afterwards. I don't think he has any

:12:56.:13:02.

intention of allowing me into any of these debates. Perhaps Ed Miliband

:13:03.:13:09.

wants to debate? We have got to have the TV debates as we did join the

:13:10.:13:14.

last general election. I think David Cameron is doing everything he can

:13:15.:13:18.

to wriggle out of them. It is up to the broadcasters but whether they

:13:19.:13:23.

invite Nigel. My main desire is that the debates go ahead. We are joined

:13:24.:13:35.

now by Grant Shapps. Will he be included? The debates were not

:13:36.:13:41.

without problems, they took place during the campaign period and

:13:42.:13:44.

disrupted the flow of the campaign, taking it out of the regions, people

:13:45.:13:51.

getting to speak to the leaders so a longer period for that would be

:13:52.:13:54.

helpful. I think they are good idea and they should go ahead, but all of

:13:55.:14:00.

the negotiation about who is involved is yet to happen. So it is

:14:01.:14:06.

not a done deal that Nigel Farage will be included? That needs to be

:14:07.:14:10.

negotiated with the TV companies. The Conservatives believe we should

:14:11.:14:15.

have debates, but exactly the format and the timing, all of the -- that

:14:16.:14:24.

will be debated in the autumn, but first we have European elections,

:14:25.:14:30.

the Queen 's speech and a Scottish referendum. The local election

:14:31.:14:37.

campaign was launched on Friday. Why did you talk more about Europe than

:14:38.:14:46.

local councils? Both are important. The local elections are critically

:14:47.:14:50.

important for people, their local services. It is easy to forget, for

:14:51.:14:57.

example, that the council tax has been largely frozen since this

:14:58.:15:00.

Government came to power, a big contrast to Dublin under the

:15:01.:15:05.

previous Labour government. So why did you go on and on about Europe?

:15:06.:15:12.

Let me show you the poster used to launch your local election campaign.

:15:13.:15:21.

There it is, and in-out referendum on Europe, the day of the local

:15:22.:15:25.

elections, where is the word local? Is it in small print? I hear what

:15:26.:15:30.

you're saying, I am happy to be here to talk about the local elections.

:15:31.:15:34.

But you are right, they are on the same day, and not many people know

:15:35.:15:39.

that only by voting conservative can you get an in-out referendum. --

:15:40.:15:43.

Conservative. UKIP cannot deliver, we can, it is the same date, so

:15:44.:15:52.

people... This was the launch of the local election campaign. Why does

:15:53.:15:55.

the Prime Minister have to keep on promising something he has already

:15:56.:15:59.

promised? The actual referendum would be in 2017. He promised it

:16:00.:16:06.

before, he keeps repeating it because he knows people don't really

:16:07.:16:10.

trust him. I think it is a question of the fact that, actually, unless

:16:11.:16:14.

you remind people that the pledges there, that the only way to get an

:16:15.:16:19.

in-out referendum is to vote for it, this is a critical moment at

:16:20.:16:23.

which we need people to vote for that referendum if they want it. It

:16:24.:16:29.

is not the case, as I saw this morning, being said by Nigel Farage,

:16:30.:16:33.

that a referendum was promised before and not delivered. There was

:16:34.:16:38.

no referendum in the last manifesto. There will be in the next one. There

:16:39.:16:46.

was a cast-iron guarantee, in the Sun in 2006. Let's just clear that

:16:47.:16:54.

up... Once the Lisbon Treaty... In the Sun article, he said, we will

:16:55.:16:58.

have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. Clearly, because that treaty

:16:59.:17:03.

had been passed before the general election, it is difficult to have a

:17:04.:17:08.

referendum on something in the past. We joined Europe in the 1970s,

:17:09.:17:14.

having a referendum on that! Look, that is about the future. Our

:17:15.:17:18.

relationship with Europe is absolutely critical. Most people in

:17:19.:17:23.

this country feel, I was not old enough to vote in that referendum,

:17:24.:17:28.

most of those who voted, they voted for a Common Market, that is not

:17:29.:17:32.

what we have got. We want to continue the work we have been doing

:17:33.:17:40.

in the EU Budget, what did UKIP do? They voted against it. We want more

:17:41.:17:43.

of those powers brought home, and we will put it to a referendum, and

:17:44.:17:47.

people will have to vote Conservative to get it. We have been

:17:48.:17:53.

looking at new research, almost two thirds of Conservative members are

:17:54.:17:56.

considering voting for UKIP, almost two thirds. I have a simple message

:17:57.:18:04.

here, which is this. If you vote for UKIP... Can we have it up? 30% are

:18:05.:18:13.

likely, 30% are possible. That is why it is important we are making

:18:14.:18:17.

these arguments. If you vote for UKIP, you are voting to take us

:18:18.:18:22.

further away from returning powers to this country, further from a

:18:23.:18:27.

referendum. It is support for Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister,

:18:28.:18:31.

and he will do exactly what Labour have always done - hand away powers,

:18:32.:18:35.

and away the rebate for nothing in return, giving Europe even more so

:18:36.:18:40.

over the day-to-day affairs in Britain. Why are so many people

:18:41.:18:44.

considering voting UKIP? It is to hold your feet to the fire, they do

:18:45.:18:48.

not trust you on a referendum, so they will vote UKIP to force you to

:18:49.:18:53.

tap in your line. We have a very tough line. If I had said four years

:18:54.:18:58.

ago that this government would manage to cut the overall EU

:18:59.:19:03.

budget, would take us out of the bailout fund that Labour got us

:19:04.:19:07.

into, passing a law that no more powers can go to Europe without a

:19:08.:19:11.

referendum, if I had said that, people would say, I do not believe

:19:12.:19:15.

it will happen. Not only have we done these things, we are promising

:19:16.:19:19.

and in-out referendum, and the only way to get it is to vote

:19:20.:19:22.

Conservative. Nigel Farage has said, we can't change anything in

:19:23.:19:27.

Europe, and it is no wonder that the president of the European Commission

:19:28.:19:32.

has said, we love having these UKIP MEPs, because they don't turn up and

:19:33.:19:37.

vote, apart from when they vote against the cut in the budget. It

:19:38.:19:43.

goes beyond UKIP in your party, because this research also showed

:19:44.:19:47.

that those Conservative members most likely to vote for UKIP, they said

:19:48.:19:51.

they do not feel valued or respected by their own leadership, and they

:19:52.:19:55.

regard David Cameron as ideological eat more remote from them than UKIP.

:19:56.:20:02.

What I would say is look at that list... Let me take that step

:20:03.:20:11.

further. What people need our series solutions to serious problems. When

:20:12.:20:19.

people vote for a UKIP MEP, I will say, which one of the 40% of the

:20:20.:20:24.

MEPs who got in for UKIP last time are you voting for, the ones above

:20:25.:20:29.

left or defected, the ones have gone to jail? 40% have ended up not

:20:30.:20:33.

delivering. People have a right to know what to expect when they vote

:20:34.:20:38.

in these elections. They can look at our record at home, and this goes to

:20:39.:20:42.

the point you have raised about what we have done in Britain to get this

:20:43.:20:48.

economy back on track, recover from Labour's recession. We are prepared

:20:49.:20:51.

to take those decisions in Europe as well. Presumably, active

:20:52.:20:58.

Conservative members, they know that, so why do they not feel valued

:20:59.:21:04.

by the leadership? I spend time going up and down the country

:21:05.:21:07.

meeting Conservative members, and they are on the doorstep, last

:21:08.:21:14.

weekend 150 out in Enfield campaigning for the European and

:21:15.:21:20.

local elections... Why are they keen on UKIP? When I meet somebody who

:21:21.:21:24.

says that, not necessarily a member... Have you met members of

:21:25.:21:32.

say they will vote UKIP? No, but a vote for UKIP is... Do not do it,

:21:33.:21:41.

you will end up with Labour having more control, handing away powers to

:21:42.:21:47.

Europe. 51-year-old meeting members who say they will vote UKIP, you

:21:48.:21:53.

must be out of touch. -- if you are not meeting members. Some of your

:21:54.:21:57.

members are thinking of voting UKIP. I spend huge amount of time

:21:58.:22:02.

travelling around, I just told you about this action day in Enfield,

:22:03.:22:07.

where we had an enormous turnout. Those members were on the doorsteps

:22:08.:22:12.

pointing out that you can only get reform in Europe by voting

:22:13.:22:17.

Conservative. Labour and the Lib Dems will not deliver, UKIP can't,

:22:18.:22:22.

Conservatives will. You have not got that message across, because a

:22:23.:22:26.

YouGov poll shows, on Europe, who has the best policies? Tories 18%,

:22:27.:22:35.

Labour 19%, UKIP 27%. On the economy, Tories 27%, Labour 23, UKIP

:22:36.:22:41.

4. Why don't you shut up about Europe and talk about the economy?

:22:42.:22:48.

Look, on the 27th of May, we have European elections, as well as local

:22:49.:22:52.

elections. If I don't talk about the European elections, you would say

:22:53.:22:55.

what you said at the beginning about not talking about the local

:22:56.:22:58.

elections! These are serious elections, and the point I am tried

:22:59.:23:02.

to make is that the issues at stake are not peripheral, they are not

:23:03.:23:07.

unimportant. Our MEPs have been battling to cut red tape from a

:23:08.:23:11.

European level on small businesses, the same thing this government has

:23:12.:23:13.

been doing for small businesses domestic league, where for example

:23:14.:23:16.

every small business owner watching this show knows they have got ?2000

:23:17.:23:23.

back in employment announced on national insurance contributions. We

:23:24.:23:26.

are doing it at home, we are doing it in Europe, and it is important to

:23:27.:23:31.

tie that together. Ireland that Mr Cameron saying, you should stop

:23:32.:23:45.

banging on about Europe... -- I remember. This is before the last

:23:46.:23:55.

general election, as in days for the Lib Dems, 18%. Even then, you didn't

:23:56.:24:00.

win the election, and now you are only three or four points ahead, it

:24:01.:24:04.

doesn't look good for you, does it? Even then, the poll did not turn out

:24:05.:24:11.

to be what it was on the day. No, that is what happens, that is the

:24:12.:24:15.

voting intentions now! You are in a worse position than a year before

:24:16.:24:18.

the last election, which you didn't win. We are almost proving the point

:24:19.:24:25.

that you can take a clip at any moment in time, not sounding like a

:24:26.:24:29.

politician, but the only poll that matters is on the day. In just over

:24:30.:24:35.

a year's time, people will have a completely different picture to look

:24:36.:24:40.

at than these opinion polls. We have an economy from being a basket

:24:41.:24:45.

case, the great Labour recession knocking 7% of this economy, hurting

:24:46.:24:50.

every family, to a point where we the fastest-growing economy in the

:24:51.:24:54.

developed world. In a year's time, I hope people will see that we are the

:24:55.:24:58.

people who've taken the difficult decisions, got the economy to the

:24:59.:25:02.

right place, more security for you and your family. Do not give the car

:25:03.:25:06.

keys back to the people who crashed it in the first place. If I had a

:25:07.:25:11.

pound for every time I have heard that! It is clearly not getting

:25:12.:25:15.

through. On the Pfizer attempted of AstraZeneca, Mr Miliband called this

:25:16.:25:23.

morning for a tougher public interest test such big takeovers. Do

:25:24.:25:27.

you agree with that or not? Let me be absolutely clear, if there is any

:25:28.:25:34.

kind of joining, we are in favour of British jobs, British aren't deep,

:25:35.:25:42.

expanding our pharmaceutical sector. -- R But what Mr Mallon and wants

:25:43.:25:55.

to do with rent caps, he is anti-business. -- Mr Miliband. He

:25:56.:25:59.

wants to take us back to the bad old those. -- bad old days. Should there

:26:00.:26:11.

be a bigger public interest test? We have seen some takeovers that people

:26:12.:26:15.

have criticised, but others, like Bentley, Land Rover, which have been

:26:16.:26:21.

very successful. Should there be a tougher test?! We will have tests

:26:22.:26:26.

that ensured this get-together becomes a great Anglo-American

:26:27.:26:30.

project, or it doesn't happen, but the Miliband approach is simply to

:26:31.:26:34.

be anti-business, anti-jobs and anti-job security. Grant Shapps,

:26:35.:26:38.

thank you. A challenging week for the Liberal

:26:39.:26:42.

Democrats with a local election campaign overshadowed by another row

:26:43.:26:45.

with the Conservatives about knife crime. Adam has spent the day with

:26:46.:26:52.

Nick Clegg on the campaign trail. How nice! Nick Clegg is taking me on

:26:53.:26:56.

a political mini break to the Cotswolds. Yes, we are getting the

:26:57.:27:00.

train. He wants to highlight what his party is doing in local

:27:01.:27:04.

government, and a personal passion of his in Europe. Graham Watson, the

:27:05.:27:09.

Lib Dem MEP for the south-west, has been running a campaign to have

:27:10.:27:15.

prunes recognised as a laxative. Is that Lib Dems battling for Britain

:27:16.:27:20.

in Europe? It is not our front page manifesto commitment! It is one of

:27:21.:27:23.

many things that Graham does, he does many other things. In fact, he

:27:24.:27:32.

is a good example of an MEP who took a pioneering role, for instance, in

:27:33.:27:36.

making sure... There is the proven world, but also the crime-fighting

:27:37.:27:43.

role. -- prune. He has done work to make sure that when British

:27:44.:27:46.

criminals flee justice, we can bring them back. And he has promoted

:27:47.:27:53.

prunes! First stop, a gorgeous country pub, but it turns out

:27:54.:27:56.

everyone is a journalist or a very on message activist. Dark days,

:27:57.:28:02.

being a Lib Dem in the last few years? Strangely not. If you find

:28:03.:28:08.

you are a Lib Dem deep down, you do not get that disheartened, because

:28:09.:28:11.

you know that, locally, you are doing so well for the people that

:28:12.:28:14.

you live next door to that, actually, I find I am almost

:28:15.:28:20.

impervious to what happens on a national level. I am mayor of

:28:21.:28:24.

Cirencester. Have you taken any leadership lessons from Nick Clegg,

:28:25.:28:28.

inspiring new in your leadership of Cirencester? I think what he has

:28:29.:28:34.

demonstrated his patience. It has been a tough time, he has taken a

:28:35.:28:38.

lot of flak, and as the mayor of a town, lots of people agree with you

:28:39.:28:43.

and a fair few don't. You are a full on mayor, he is just a Deputy Prime

:28:44.:28:48.

Minister, do you outrank him? I don't think so, he is in government,

:28:49.:28:54.

I am not. So our there any normal people in here? We are from

:28:55.:28:59.

Swindon, you cannot get more abnormal. Are you a big fan of his?

:29:00.:29:07.

No! What has he done wrong? I don't believe in his views at all. Where

:29:08.:29:11.

has he got to? Nigel Farage would have had a pint! At this time in the

:29:12.:29:20.

morning a copy was more appropriate. I have no time for a drink of any

:29:21.:29:24.

kind, because now we are off to look at a local traffic blackspot. This

:29:25.:29:28.

is amazing, like a Lib Dem election leaflet brought to life, Lib Dems

:29:29.:29:35.

pointing at a road. High-vis jackets! Next we had to giggle full

:29:36.:29:39.

bath, but there will be no Regency sightseeing for us, oh no, Nick is

:29:40.:29:44.

taking us to an abandoned wilderness. We have just had a

:29:45.:29:54.

health and safety briefing, we have been told to look out for

:29:55.:29:58.

dive-bombing seagulls and an angry fox. That is the sort of thing Nick

:29:59.:30:03.

Clegg has to put up with. He wants to talk about the economy but he has

:30:04.:30:08.

to dodge the day's beat new story, letters leaked by a Tory suggesting

:30:09.:30:13.

that Lib Dems are soft on knife crime. Isn't that a new kind of

:30:14.:30:24.

warfare? I just think it is silly. They may think they are clever by

:30:25.:30:28.

catching some headlines but they are not helping people who worry about

:30:29.:30:38.

knife crime, like I do. We work together... Just like the

:30:39.:30:43.

Coalition! This is a co-working space where different businesses

:30:44.:30:45.

share the same office. My time with space where different businesses

:30:46.:30:50.

the Deputy Prime Minister is drawing to a close. We haven't talked about

:30:51.:30:55.

the most important story of the week, that you were voted the best

:30:56.:30:58.

looking party leader and the most likely to be a good cook. Right,

:30:59.:31:08.

this is news to me and I can guarantee you that my scepticism of

:31:09.:31:13.

opinion polls has just been confirmed. Just as well because the

:31:14.:31:18.

more serious polls don't look great for him or his party. Goodbye, and

:31:19.:31:23.

thanks for the offer of a ride home!

:31:24.:31:30.

He is still walking. Malcolm Bruce joins us now. According to Lib Dem

:31:31.:31:34.

briefing documents, you are likely to choose -- lose a big chunk of

:31:35.:31:41.

your MEPs. If you lose a lot, what would that say about a party that

:31:42.:31:45.

boasts of its pro-Europe credentials? It would be

:31:46.:31:50.

disappointing because we have the most hard-working MEPs. The worry

:31:51.:31:58.

that we have is that people think the European Parliament is not

:31:59.:32:01.

important but it takes decisions that affect us. They would be

:32:02.:32:10.

disappointing for Britain as well as the Liberal Democrats. Isn't the

:32:11.:32:14.

problem that the more you bang on about your pro-European credentials,

:32:15.:32:20.

the more you slip in the polls? I do think so, we have two weeks to go

:32:21.:32:24.

and we are campaigning extremely hard. You are forced in the polls. I

:32:25.:32:36.

can tell you there are people out there who do believe Britain should

:32:37.:32:40.

stay in the EU and they are worried that other parties will take us out.

:32:41.:32:45.

The Liberal Democrats are clear, we want to stay in, we will work for

:32:46.:32:52.

reform and do it effectively. If you lose the Liberal Democrats,

:32:53.:32:55.

Britain's influence in Europe will be weakened. Your track record in

:32:56.:33:01.

Europe shows you have been spectacularly wrong again and again.

:33:02.:33:06.

In your 2009 manifesto you said the European Central Bank and the euro

:33:07.:33:13.

have been tried and tested over ten years providing a clear picture of

:33:14.:33:17.

the benefits of Eurozone membership and that proved to be nonsense. It

:33:18.:33:22.

was nonsense everywhere. Every developed bank in the world was

:33:23.:33:28.

tried and tested and failed. Europe may not be perfect, but the question

:33:29.:33:34.

people have to decide is if we are going to leave Europe and be

:33:35.:33:39.

isolated on RM, or use our influence to reform it from inside. We have

:33:40.:33:45.

allies, you work with them, that is something the Lib Dems do better

:33:46.:33:52.

than any other parties. Your 2004 manifesto, you claim that being

:33:53.:33:57.

outside the euro would lead to job losses and reduced prosperity. You

:33:58.:34:02.

were just plain wrong, weren't you? Yes, but the reason is that to some

:34:03.:34:08.

extent the euro did not observe any rules and regulations when it was

:34:09.:34:16.

set up. That is why we never recommended Britain should join at

:34:17.:34:20.

the outset because the criteria had not been met. In 2001 Nick Clegg was

:34:21.:34:28.

writing to the Financial Times... Your track record is important. He

:34:29.:34:33.

wrote that the Tisch monetary policy is not all it is cracked up to be.

:34:34.:34:38.

Britain would gain greater control over its affairs by joining the

:34:39.:34:46.

euro. How wrong can he be? We have always argued that the currency had

:34:47.:34:53.

to abide by strict criteria. It hasn't done so and that is one of

:34:54.:34:57.

the reasons it has failed. We recognise there is no future for

:34:58.:35:05.

Britain joining the euro and we are not advocating it. Lets put your

:35:06.:35:12.

2010 manifesto on the screen. I didn't say it was not our long-term

:35:13.:35:18.

interest. If Europe succeeds as an entity, if the euro becomes one of

:35:19.:35:21.

the world leading currencies, there will come a point when it may be

:35:22.:35:30.

justified. In the circumstances we are in the moment, there is no

:35:31.:35:36.

recommended timescale. Let's get this right. Despite the Eurozone

:35:37.:35:41.

crisis which has cost millions of jobs, countries that were teetering

:35:42.:35:46.

on the brink of bankruptcy, the Eurozone now facing stagnation and

:35:47.:35:50.

some countries on the brink of deflation, you still won't rule out

:35:51.:35:56.

Britain joining? We are ruling it out in the foreseeable future. You

:35:57.:36:01.

can miss the point that we are working as a coalition partner in

:36:02.:36:05.

government that has secured recovery for the UK, and working as Liberal

:36:06.:36:10.

Democrats in the parliament that have cut back the European budget in

:36:11.:36:14.

cooperation with others. What would the world look like if it were right

:36:15.:36:21.

for Britain to join the euro? You have 27 states at the moment, with

:36:22.:36:27.

too many countries still struggling to meet the criteria so until you

:36:28.:36:31.

have a strong and cohesive enough single Eurozone in which all the

:36:32.:36:36.

countries can meet that criteria, Britain is better off out. So a more

:36:37.:36:42.

centralised Eurozone, that is what you would like Britain to join? No,

:36:43.:36:48.

because it can only happen by consent. Any circumstances in which

:36:49.:36:51.

any further powers would be transferred from the UK to the EU,

:36:52.:37:00.

we would support a referendum. You have just said that for the Eurozone

:37:01.:37:04.

to work, it has to be more centralised and you said if that

:37:05.:37:08.

happens, that is what Britain would join. I didn't say that, I said it

:37:09.:37:13.

would require the consent of all member states to agree to the

:37:14.:37:20.

criteria. We certainly do not envisage joining in the foreseeable

:37:21.:37:24.

future. Since you are the proud party of in, why weren't you just

:37:25.:37:33.

give us a referendum on in or out? Because it has to have a context.

:37:34.:37:37.

What David Cameron is doing is dangerous because I think the major

:37:38.:37:42.

players like Britain and France are not keen on the idea of being

:37:43.:37:46.

bullied into reforms on the instigation of just one member state

:37:47.:37:50.

which is threatening possibility to withdraw. They will have to agree to

:37:51.:37:58.

rules... Just have it now. Do you want in or out? To have a referendum

:37:59.:38:03.

against no background is to put it out of context. We are in the middle

:38:04.:38:09.

of a crisis, a year away from the general election. We have made it

:38:10.:38:17.

clear... You said we are in the middle of the Eurozone crisis? So we

:38:18.:38:22.

are not in the middle of it? What's the middle? The reality is that the

:38:23.:38:27.

Western world has gone through a deep crisis. The UK is coming out of

:38:28.:38:32.

it, the Eurozone is coming out of it. Greece have been able to borrow

:38:33.:38:37.

on the markets in recent weeks which is a sign of success. It is in our

:38:38.:38:42.

interest is the Eurozone succeeds and recovers and we should be part

:38:43.:38:45.

of it but not necessarily on the same conditions as everyone else.

:38:46.:38:51.

The Liberal Democrats work with others to deliver Britain's

:38:52.:38:54.

interests and if they are not there, their interests will be undermined.

:38:55.:39:01.

You are watching Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland

:39:02.:39:03.

now. Hello and on the Sunday Politics

:39:04.:39:17.

Wales, the campaign against an independent Scotland tells us is in

:39:18.:39:20.

Wales's interest for Scots to vote No in their independence referendum.

:39:21.:39:26.

And the European elections are a little under three weeks away. We

:39:27.:39:34.

will take a closer look at all the parties' sales pitches - starting

:39:35.:39:37.

with the Welsh Liberal Democrats. But first, that referendum on

:39:38.:39:41.

Scottish independence. On September 18, Scots go to the

:39:42.:39:46.

polls. We have already heard from the Yes campaign. Scotland's Deputy

:39:47.:39:55.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon told us in March that Wales could be

:39:56.:39:59.

better off if Scotland left the union. What does the No camp think

:40:00.:40:01.

about that? I have been speaking to Labour's

:40:02.:40:04.

Shadow Scottish Secretary Margaret Curran, from the Better Together

:40:05.:40:07.

campaign. This week, her party leader Ed Miliband was in Cardiff,

:40:08.:40:10.

where he said the Welsh government had made a strong case for extra

:40:11.:40:14.

funding from the Treasury. We will hear more from Mrs Curran about what

:40:15.:40:17.

Labour's plans for funding reform? But first, I asked her that, with

:40:18.:40:21.

the Yes campaign catching up in the opinion poll, was the No camp

:40:22.:40:24.

struggling to get its message across? No, there has been a small

:40:25.:40:35.

shift in the opinion polls, but support for the union is well

:40:36.:40:40.

advanced in Scotland. I do think the argument we're better together has

:40:41.:40:47.

traction with the Scottish people and there are positive reasons why

:40:48.:40:52.

the Scottish people understand that. We have a strong Scottish

:40:53.:40:57.

parliament, but have the benefits of working in partnership with the

:40:58.:41:00.

other nations within the United Kingdom. You see positive reasons,

:41:01.:41:06.

but the campaign has been criticised for being too negative? As you know,

:41:07.:41:17.

the definition of scaremongering is asking Alex Salmond a question he

:41:18.:41:24.

cannot answer. But we are asking questions and of the yes campaign

:41:25.:41:27.

cannot answer man, that is not negative. I think a lot of Scottish

:41:28.:41:33.

people see there are risks for the yes campaign. By definition,

:41:34.:41:42.

encouraging people to vote no is a negative thing in the danger is that

:41:43.:41:46.

you end up skidding people, by losing your place in the European

:41:47.:41:55.

Union, you lose your pensions. I think that is true. We do have a

:41:56.:42:00.

situation where the yes campaign cannot explain what currency we

:42:01.:42:06.

would have, he was found out not to be telling the truth in relation to

:42:07.:42:10.

our membership of the European Union. All these things matter. For

:42:11.:42:17.

that to be dismissed the scaremongering does not deserve to

:42:18.:42:22.

be part of the debate in Scotland. There are very positive reasons why

:42:23.:42:26.

we should remain part of the United Kingdom. I want to work in

:42:27.:42:31.

solidarity with people in England and Wales and when we have done that

:42:32.:42:34.

in the past, we have done great things. Not least in the National

:42:35.:42:40.

Health Service, founded by a Welshman, which has a fantastic

:42:41.:42:45.

benefits in Scotland. We have a strong Scottish parliament, but we

:42:46.:42:48.

can work across the rest of the United Kingdom to our mutual benefit

:42:49.:42:54.

and that is why we are Better Together. Why does the no campaign

:42:55.:43:08.

describe itself as the underdogs? I think perhaps the reason you have

:43:09.:43:12.

outlined, because there is no doubt the Scottish government are in power

:43:13.:43:18.

and they have used all the resources, and someone whether they

:43:19.:43:26.

have improperly, but we have to make a strong case, even if we are up

:43:27.:43:34.

against the government machine. The CBI in Scotland was in difficulty

:43:35.:43:40.

about registering as a no. The house does not appear to be an order, the

:43:41.:43:49.

way done no campaign. There was a Scottish National party press

:43:50.:43:52.

release in relation to that. There is no doubt that the business sector

:43:53.:43:56.

in Scotland is raising real questions about the validity of the

:43:57.:44:03.

yes campaign. We are about to move into formal campaigning and there

:44:04.:44:07.

will be a gear change around campaigning in Scotland. When I am

:44:08.:44:11.

out and about, they want to know the facts and figures, they do not want

:44:12.:44:15.

to talk about the process issues all the time. We should be focusing on

:44:16.:44:20.

what is in the best interests of the Scottish people, our business

:44:21.:44:26.

community, the arts community, tackling poverty. I think the

:44:27.:44:29.

conclusion will be that we are Better Together. People here are

:44:30.:44:40.

wondering what it will be for people in Wales and the result of a yes

:44:41.:44:47.

fraud. Could there be a change to the Barnett formula if there is a no

:44:48.:44:53.

vote in Scotland? There will be no change to the Barnett formula. We

:44:54.:45:02.

recognise there are specific issues relating to both Scotland and Wales.

:45:03.:45:06.

But our policy is absolutely clear, we want to address the issue of

:45:07.:45:15.

money to Wales, but not to the disadvantage of Scotland. I think

:45:16.:45:19.

devolution works for Scotland, devolution works for Wales. I think

:45:20.:45:23.

both countries have done well out of that relationship. But independence

:45:24.:45:30.

is a very different journey. If you want to stop the Barnett formula,

:45:31.:45:34.

the best way is to vote for independence. We had Nicola Sturgeon

:45:35.:45:43.

on the programme seem that of Scotland where to leave the United

:45:44.:45:47.

Kingdom, Wales would be free to renegotiate perhaps a more

:45:48.:45:51.

favourable funding settlement. You cannot deny the logic of that? That

:45:52.:46:00.

is a very curious logic. The Barnett formula is only part of the union.

:46:01.:46:04.

We work together to protect and the best part of doing that is to remain

:46:05.:46:09.

part of the union. You have got separatists and nationality oh they

:46:10.:46:16.

would best work together, but I would not take their word for that.

:46:17.:46:22.

Devolution works best for our respective countries. I think it has

:46:23.:46:28.

an exciting future. We can hope for more powers to strengthen our

:46:29.:46:33.

nations. It will be a more positive journey. What is a Labour leader

:46:34.:46:40.

mean about the specific issue in relation to Wales. Does that mean

:46:41.:46:44.

more funding for devolved services in Wales? Obviously, when the

:46:45.:46:50.

manifestoes are written they will be specific about that. He does not

:46:51.:46:57.

want to resolve that at the expense of Scotland. He needs to make sure

:46:58.:47:02.

that Welsh issues are addressed. The first Minister has the job of

:47:03.:47:11.

delivering the agenda and I think when the Labour leader as the Prime

:47:12.:47:15.

Minister, he will do that for everyone in the country. He

:47:16.:47:18.

recognises conditions in Scotland and in Wales and I think, with

:47:19.:47:23.

devolution, we have an exciting journey for our nations. But we do

:47:24.:47:30.

not want to be engaged in a race to the bottom, which the separatists

:47:31.:47:33.

would have us. We are a better together. There is a belief that the

:47:34.:47:42.

Barnett formula has deprived Wales of ?300 million a year. I think that

:47:43.:47:50.

is wrong. I think the first Minister has to make sure that the Welsh

:47:51.:47:55.

minister has to make sure that the Welsh people get the Jew deserves

:47:56.:48:01.

and that is his job. Edna Levant has made it

:48:02.:48:05.

the Labour leader has made it clear that he will have a look at this

:48:06.:48:13.

issue. He will address that. Margaret Curran MP from Better

:48:14.:48:15.

Together talking about September's Scottish independence referendum.

:48:16.:48:18.

Now, before Scottish voters decide on independence, voters across the

:48:19.:48:22.

UK will go to the polls in the European elections. Between now and

:48:23.:48:27.

polling day on May 22, I will be speaking to the lead candidates

:48:28.:48:30.

standing for the Conservatives, Labour, Plaid Cymru, UKIP and the

:48:31.:48:36.

Liberal Democrats. First up are the Lib Dems, who we we

:48:37.:48:40.

will hear from in a few minutes. Before that, let us hear about six

:48:41.:48:43.

other parties contesting the European elections in Wales.

:48:44.:49:05.

Our messages it does not matter who you vote for in the selection or

:49:06.:49:11.

future elections, it does not matter. The British people are going

:49:12.:49:17.

to be a minority in our own country within a few short years and that is

:49:18.:49:22.

a big problem and we are standing in the selection to highlight that.

:49:23.:49:27.

Our main message is that the people of Wales should rule in Wales, the

:49:28.:49:48.

people of England should rule England and Scotland and Northern

:49:49.:49:53.

Ireland the same. At the moment, the parliament is run by interlopers.

:49:54.:49:59.

They are not real people. They did not go to the schools and colleges

:50:00.:50:04.

we went to. They do not understand our culture and have an agenda to

:50:05.:50:06.

destroy the British people. We want to see a fairer and more

:50:07.:50:21.

democratic Europe. We want a referendum. Many people alive today

:50:22.:50:27.

have never had a vote on whether they want to be in or out of the

:50:28.:50:33.

European Union. Mostly, we feel we must have a reformed Europe. So

:50:34.:50:42.

Europe, we would be cooler place, a less just place, a darker place. I

:50:43.:50:49.

think people realise, in their hearts, we do need Europe.

:50:50.:51:03.

We are calling for a vote from the left against the policies of the

:51:04.:51:13.

right. We are opposed to the European Union. They are policies of

:51:14.:51:28.

monetarism instead of privatisation. Our way of opposing the European

:51:29.:51:31.

Union is different to the fraudulent way the likes of UKIP and the

:51:32.:51:34.

Conservatives are putting forward. In this election, the Socialist

:51:35.:51:56.

Labour Party is the only one who is opposing free-market privatisation

:51:57.:52:03.

in you up. The European Union has undermined and sought to replace our

:52:04.:52:09.

democracy with policies which lead to mass unemployment. Other parties

:52:10.:52:15.

will carry on with this austerity and only as is looking to bring

:52:16.:52:21.

prosperity to communities across the country.

:52:22.:52:30.

The Socialist party stands for a stateless, classless, even world. A

:52:31.:52:47.

world without money. Such a system is not going to operate at a

:52:48.:52:56.

national or European level in the way things are going. We're looking

:52:57.:52:57.

the global aspect of this. Wales has never had a Lib Dem MEP.

:52:58.:53:12.

My next guest hopes to change that. Alec Dauncey is the party's lead

:53:13.:53:14.

candidate for the European elections. If you do want to change

:53:15.:53:23.

that state of affairs, you do not have the best thing to do that given

:53:24.:53:27.

the parties standing in the opinion polls. It is clearly a big

:53:28.:53:34.

challenge. We are setting out asked all about being in Europe and being

:53:35.:53:39.

in work. As I go up and down the country, I am meeting people who are

:53:40.:53:44.

responding to that. They are grateful we are a party who are

:53:45.:53:48.

standing up for that against the tide of Euro scepticism. The trouble

:53:49.:53:54.

is, you are not the only party setting out that stall. The other

:53:55.:54:04.

main parties are stressing stressing the importance of the European

:54:05.:54:07.

Union, so there is not so much to distinguish your message? I think we

:54:08.:54:13.

are much closer to the core of it. We have been pro-European for

:54:14.:54:18.

generations. I think the candidates will set out that case. The

:54:19.:54:24.

conservatives are divided as a party on this. One thing which does

:54:25.:54:30.

distinguish you is that the Labour Party has offered a referendum. Let

:54:31.:54:36.

us clean up your position. Argue against a referendum? No, we are in

:54:37.:54:41.

favour of the referendum. We are part of the act of Parliament put

:54:42.:54:46.

through that there will be a referendum. Is it a question of

:54:47.:54:57.

timing? It is about having a referendum when the opportunity is

:54:58.:55:04.

right. Plaid Cymru is an problem which does not exist in England.

:55:05.:55:11.

They are very pro-European but they are uncertain about where their

:55:12.:55:16.

place in Britain is. We are already seeing the situation in Scotland. I

:55:17.:55:22.

think Plaid Cymru have that problem as well. But Nick Clegg has lead us

:55:23.:55:34.

very clearly as a party which very much believes in Europe. You see the

:55:35.:55:41.

tide of Euro scepticism and xenophobia. Readers that coming

:55:42.:55:46.

from? I think some of the media have been demonising immigration and not

:55:47.:55:53.

recognising it is on a democratic basis. There has been years of that.

:55:54.:56:02.

At last, we are having a European election pledges on the real issues.

:56:03.:56:07.

Really, it is the first time we are having the argument. People feel

:56:08.:56:16.

justified and worried about immigration within Europe?

:56:17.:56:21.

Certainly. The last Labour government underestimated the amount

:56:22.:56:25.

of people who would come in from the likes of Poland. But immigration can

:56:26.:56:28.

be very good for the country, as well. And we know that the likes of

:56:29.:56:39.

the people from Poland working very hard, paying taxes in this country.

:56:40.:56:46.

It is how the economy builds. But if people are travelling to UKIP, there

:56:47.:56:49.

is a mood of Euro scepticism out there, it is not being whipped up by

:56:50.:57:01.

UKIP or the newspapers, that is why people are genuinely feeling? There

:57:02.:57:06.

could be a legitimate question about how we see ourselves as different

:57:07.:57:11.

countries with the United Kingdom. Do you see yourself as being in

:57:12.:57:16.

touch with how the majority of people feel? Yes, there are issues

:57:17.:57:23.

that our young people are competitive and compete in the

:57:24.:57:26.

economy. That is why we are looking at things like making sure more

:57:27.:57:35.

disadvantaged children get a good education. But that is part of the

:57:36.:57:44.

free labour market. I noticed on your twitter feed, your biography

:57:45.:57:50.

described you as a rationalist. Let's be realistic about what you're

:57:51.:57:56.

goals are in this election. You got any 11% share of the vote last

:57:57.:58:03.

time. Would you expect to do better? Given the role the party has played

:58:04.:58:10.

in some unpopular national policies? We have also taken 1 million people

:58:11.:58:15.

out of tax. There are good things we could talk about. As I said, this is

:58:16.:58:23.

a European election and we do seem to be finding it more focused on

:58:24.:58:30.

European issues. What is your goal? What are you aiming for? We are the

:58:31.:58:36.

challengers for the next seat. We are allowed to win. You see this as

:58:37.:58:44.

an election being fought on European issues. The Labour leader in Cardiff

:58:45.:58:52.

on Friday said the cost of living crisis, saying freezing energy bills

:58:53.:58:56.

would send a message to the United Kingdom government. They are clearly

:58:57.:59:01.

fighting this on domestic issues as much as European issues. Perhaps you

:59:02.:59:07.

have chosen the wrong way to go? There is a great strand of

:59:08.:59:13.

disillusionment and politics. People are additional Nugent, which is why

:59:14.:59:18.

they want to kick the main parties. Fighting every election on every

:59:19.:59:22.

issue and not on the issues which it is about is a mistake. Labour cannot

:59:23.:59:30.

deliver these things directly. The need to win an election to do that.

:59:31.:59:35.

The European election is about where we are in Europe. It is about jobs

:59:36.:59:41.

in Europe and being in work as a legitimate argument about it. It is

:59:42.:59:44.

a big market, it is about not threatening that. Labour is

:59:45.:59:54.

appealing to people to send a message to Westminster, to put a

:59:55.:00:00.

marker down before the general election. People voting understand

:00:01.:00:07.

that. They are fed up with a coalition government and will send

:00:08.:00:13.

them a message through the ballot box? I can understand that, but the

:00:14.:00:17.

team to do that is at the general election. On this occasion, we are

:00:18.:00:23.

talking about Europe. We are talking about the jobs that come from being

:00:24.:00:28.

in the single market. We are also looking at reforming Europe. I was

:00:29.:00:34.

going to ask you about that, you're happy about the Wii Europe works the

:00:35.:00:40.

moment? Not at all. There are things wrong with what go on in Cardiff,

:00:41.:00:44.

what goes on in Westminster, all areas of our parliaments. There are

:00:45.:00:50.

madness is in the European Parliament. The fact that it sits on

:00:51.:00:59.

two different places. It is a costly waste of money. We want to see it

:01:00.:01:04.

becoming more democratic, which it is, and we want to see that the

:01:05.:01:09.

members of the European Parliament are hard-working and that the

:01:10.:01:15.

regulations are being adhered to. We want to make sure things work in

:01:16.:01:24.

every aspect of the European Union. What sort of state is the party in

:01:25.:01:31.

in Wales? You have had the few rocky years? I think it is a surprisingly

:01:32.:01:36.

good state. We entered into the coalition with our eyes open. We did

:01:37.:01:41.

that as a party in a very democratic way. We keep campaigning very hard,

:01:42.:01:52.

so I am very optimistic. We will see of that pays off for you.

:01:53.:01:55.

Alec Daunce, lead Liberal Democrat election candidate for Wales, thank

:01:56.:01:58.

you very much. Next week, I will be speaking to Plaid Cymru's lead

:01:59.:02:01.

candidate, Jill Evans, and the UK Independence Party's Nathan Gill.

:02:02.:02:03.

For now, though, that is all from Independence Party's Nathan Gill.

:02:04.:02:05.

on our website. That is all we have got time for this week. Next week,

:02:06.:02:09.

London's local elections. Welcome back. Now, the Government is

:02:10.:02:17.

not very good at predicting the future. That's according to a report

:02:18.:02:21.

from a committee of MPs this morning who say that its Horizon Scanning

:02:22.:02:23.

programme that's supposed to identify potential threats, risks,

:02:24.:02:25.

emerging issues and opportunities isn't much good at reading the tea

:02:26.:02:32.

leaves. But can it really be any worse than our panel? Here they are

:02:33.:02:35.

predicting the future of then culture secretary Maria Miller

:02:36.:02:45.

before Easter. Can she survive? I'm getting out of

:02:46.:02:49.

the prediction game after I said Nick Clegg would win the debates.

:02:50.:02:55.

But I almost think she might. If there is a big event that moves this

:02:56.:03:01.

off the front pages. David Cameron will want to keep Maria Miller until

:03:02.:03:07.

at least his summary shuffle. I think they will get rid of her. I

:03:08.:03:13.

think they will do the decent thing after exhausting all other options.

:03:14.:03:19.

Maria Miller resigned a few days later of course! The best and the

:03:20.:03:28.

brightest, when did that slip in? This week it will be exactly a year

:03:29.:03:31.

until the General Election, so what better time to get our panel to gaze

:03:32.:03:39.

into their crystal balls again. What's the outcome of the election

:03:40.:03:44.

in 2015? I'm going to go with the polls and say Ed Miliband as the

:03:45.:03:52.

Prime Minister. But the polls are only a snapshot of opinion now, you

:03:53.:03:57.

think they will be the same in a year? No, I think they will narrow.

:03:58.:04:05.

I think UKIP's vote share will fall. I think they are currently coasting

:04:06.:04:09.

on a high and that will tailor way so they won't take as many votes off

:04:10.:04:18.

the Tories. Labour with a majority or is the largest party. Another

:04:19.:04:24.

liberal Conservative coalition, and I say that because he is already in

:04:25.:04:31.

touching distance of Labour. I don't think UKIP will get 15, maybe half

:04:32.:04:36.

of that, and most of the votes they lose will either not vote at all go

:04:37.:04:40.

to the Tories and that should be enough to be the biggest party in a

:04:41.:04:45.

hung parliament I don't envisage a Tory majority. I am also going to go

:04:46.:04:52.

with the polls. For Ed Miliband to be hoping to win at this stage, he

:04:53.:04:55.

has got to be way ahead in the polls. Labour needs to be much

:04:56.:05:04.

further ahead if he is going to win so David Cameron, probably the

:05:05.:05:08.

leader of the largest party. Last time after the election David

:05:09.:05:11.

Cameron went to the 1922 committee and announced he was Prime Minister

:05:12.:05:16.

as head of the Coalition. He has agreed this time he will consult

:05:17.:05:19.

them and it will be much more difficult for him to get a

:05:20.:05:24.

coalition. People at home have now concluded there will be a Liberal

:05:25.:05:31.

Democrat landslide! Are we going to have debates? Yes, probably further

:05:32.:05:36.

away from polling day then last time. That is the Liberal Democrat

:05:37.:05:43.

point, isn't it? Yes, it sucks all the life out of the campaign, so the

:05:44.:05:49.

last six weeks will be left to traditional campaigning. What did

:05:50.:05:52.

you make of this in the Sunday Times this morning, this two, three, five

:05:53.:06:01.

formula. There should be a Cameron, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg debate, then

:06:02.:06:09.

there should be another one with them and UKIP and the Greens. It

:06:10.:06:20.

might be testing the patience of the nation to tune into all of those. If

:06:21.:06:24.

you're going to say Nigel Farage should be there, the Green party

:06:25.:06:29.

should be too. They know that as soon as you put them on a podium

:06:30.:06:35.

next to them, he looks like he has equal stature and that is a problem.

:06:36.:06:41.

David Cameron does not want the debates to happen on the way they

:06:42.:06:45.

happened last time. It is generally regarded, Lynton Crosby believes

:06:46.:06:50.

they were a disaster for David Cameron because they allowed Nick

:06:51.:06:56.

Clegg to be the fresh person. He knows he cannot say no to them so

:06:57.:07:01.

the moment you see David Cameron suggesting that Caroline Lucas

:07:02.:07:05.

should be in the debate, you know he is not serious. What he will try to

:07:06.:07:09.

do is have more debates, have them outside the main part of the general

:07:10.:07:13.

election so that it doesn't dominate. The problem the David

:07:14.:07:17.

Cameron is that the campaign will be much longer. It is a five-week

:07:18.:07:24.

campaign so it is quite difficult for him to say we will only have one

:07:25.:07:29.

debate in that campaign. I think smother it with love, hopefully it

:07:30.:07:33.

will go to the courts for him and hopefully they will never happen and

:07:34.:07:38.

he will be delighted. The European election and the local elections are

:07:39.:07:42.

coming up. The three mainstream parties are saying it is a flash in

:07:43.:07:47.

the pan, they don't really matter and so on, but if UKIP comes a

:07:48.:07:53.

strong first, if Labour comes a poor second and the Tories come a poor

:07:54.:07:59.

third, it will have consequences for all three, and the Lib Dems come

:08:00.:08:05.

forth or even fish. It will have consequences and not just in the

:08:06.:08:09.

media but on the ground. One of the big stories is what will happen to

:08:10.:08:12.

the Lib Dems, they face losing all of their MEPs. A good result for

:08:13.:08:20.

them is lit -- in the local elections is losing 250 councillors.

:08:21.:08:24.

These are the most interesting elections we have had for some

:08:25.:08:31.

time. Are we heading for a Nick Clegg summer leadership crisis? I

:08:32.:08:35.

think we are heading towards reversing the clock back to where we

:08:36.:08:39.

were before the Eastleigh by-election. That quiet and things

:08:40.:08:45.

down for Nick Clegg. If they lose all their MEPs, and there is a real

:08:46.:08:49.

chance they will, Vince Cable will be out on manoeuvres because age is

:08:50.:08:55.

not on his side. If he can say Nick Clegg is a loser and a failure, he

:08:56.:09:02.

will be back. Will the Tories go into headless chicken mode if they

:09:03.:09:17.

come third? Yes, if UKIP come first there will not be as much panic as

:09:18.:09:23.

if Labour come first. Is Labour comes a poor second, will there be

:09:24.:09:28.

some pressure on Ed Miliband to reopen his attitude to the

:09:29.:09:33.

referendum? I don't think so and my colleague was talking to Labour

:09:34.:09:37.

sources who said he is absolutely not going to. That is something you

:09:38.:09:41.

can say definitely about him, he decides on a course and he sticks to

:09:42.:09:46.

it. There is one potential upside for David Cameron in a really bad

:09:47.:09:52.

Conservative results, it could strengthen his hand in the

:09:53.:09:55.

renegotiations of Britain's EU membership because he doesn't even

:09:56.:10:00.

need to say to Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande it is there. David

:10:01.:10:07.

Cameron hasn't just been fighting for his party into the local

:10:08.:10:12.

elections. He also got his knuckles wrapped by the Speaker, John Bercow,

:10:13.:10:15.

at Prime Minister's Question Time, for talking for too long. Take a

:10:16.:10:22.

look at this. There is a better future ahead of us but we must not

:10:23.:10:27.

go backward to the policies that put us in this mess in the first place.

:10:28.:10:32.

I don't know what they are paying him, Mr Speaker. Order, order. I

:10:33.:10:50.

haven't finished! In response to that question, the Prime Minister

:10:51.:10:54.

has finished and he can take it from me that he has finished. I can't

:10:55.:11:01.

remember a speaker ever speaking to a Prime Minister like that. Clearly

:11:02.:11:07.

in that case, John Bercow crossed a line. It is Prime Minister 's

:11:08.:11:12.

questions, he is entitled to answer the questions. There is really bad

:11:13.:11:17.

blood between those two, going back a long way. They hate each other and

:11:18.:11:24.

the worrying thing about that was the look of triumphalism on the

:11:25.:11:30.

speaker's face afterwards. He is a remarkable, revolutionary speaker

:11:31.:11:33.

who has made the House of Commons more relevant, he is holding the

:11:34.:11:37.

executive to account, but that look on his face showed he had crossed

:11:38.:11:43.

the line. Does he survive after the next election? He has improved the

:11:44.:11:47.

importance of the Commons, is that enough to keep him in the Speaker 's

:11:48.:11:53.

chair? The most public bit of the Commons is still the Prime Minister

:11:54.:12:00.

's questions, and we can conclude that John Bercow's interventions

:12:01.:12:04.

take more time than any delays he complains about so I wouldn't be

:12:05.:12:11.

surprised if, in a few years' time, someone else replaces him. He is

:12:12.:12:17.

quite popular someone else replaces him. He is

:12:18.:12:23.

not? Yes, he is married to a Labour activist and is notably sympathetic

:12:24.:12:28.

to Labour but I think this is a difficult situation. David Cameron

:12:29.:12:33.

also overstepped the line. As soon as the speaker says order, the idea

:12:34.:12:39.

is that the House was to order and David Cameron pushed him. They are

:12:40.:12:44.

both trying to score points off each other. We cover Prime Minister 's

:12:45.:12:48.

questions every week on the daily politics, and there is a danger that

:12:49.:12:57.

he sees it as an opportunity to do some grandstanding. You slightly

:12:58.:13:00.

sends his vanity gets the better of him. It is supposed to be Prime

:13:01.:13:05.

Minister 's questions. At the end of that session, the Speaker read out a

:13:06.:13:10.

statement from the Chief clerk, and immensely respected figure, saying

:13:11.:13:15.

he is taking early retirement. It is pretty clear that the reason he has

:13:16.:13:20.

decided to go early is because he is finding it tricky to maintain a

:13:21.:13:22.

cordial relationship with the speaker, and the speaker might want

:13:23.:13:28.

to think about his man management skills. That's all for today. The

:13:29.:13:31.

Daily Politics will be back on BBC Two at lunchtime from Tuesday

:13:32.:13:35.

onwards. Remember, it is a bank holiday tomorrow. I'll be back here

:13:36.:13:38.

at 11am next week. Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday

:13:39.:13:39.

Politics.

:13:40.:13:44.

Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS