08/05/2016 Sunday Politics Wales

A thumping big win for Labour over the Conservatives in London -

but what do Thursday's less impressive results across

the country mean for Jeremy Corbyn's chances of getting to Number 10?

We'll hear from both sides of the debate

Here's one Tory riding high at least.

Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson has managed to take

the party once thought of as too toxic for Scotland

And with the elections now over, it's back to the biggest political

The Cabinet's heavyweights have been trading blows

Later in the programme, the voting is over but as the Assembly convenes

all the parties have questions to answer.

And how will the Khan- Corbyn combo work?

giving media interviews this morning, I'm joined in the studio

by the aristocracy, the upper crust, the royalty

Tom Newton-Dunn, Julia Hartley-Brewer and Steve Richards.

We're going to have a whip round after the show

and get Steve a double-barrelled surname too.

So, this week's elections were an extraordinary

demonstration of modern democracy in the United Kingdom.

There was good and bad for almost every political party

across the nations and regions, and that's meant a feast

of spinning, analysis, claim and counter-claim.

Well today with almost all of the results now in -

although we're still waiting for a few police and crime

commissioners and one English council - we're going to try

First here's Adam with his behind-the-scenes look at how

It's election night, and my chance to annoy the big

And this is the most depressing bit.

Are you expecting to get a bit of a headache?

It's a two day extravaganza of results.

Will Jeremy Corbyn be staying up all night tonight?

Jeremy doesn't go to bed on nights like this!

We're old mates, we've been together 30 years on these different things

So you're both proper election night geeks?

The Labour telly addicts watched their party lose one council

and a handful of councillors in England, not a lot,

but not amazing either, as even Jeremy Corbyn admitted.

We were getting predictions that Labour was going to lose councils,

Although he celebrated winning two by-elections in pretty

This is the first time I've ever had a desk at one of these things.

The SNP got close to a majority in the Scottish Parliament,

It is a vote of confidence in the record in government

of the SNP, and it is a vote of trust in the SNP to lead

Davidson, Ruth - Scottish and Conservative and Unionist...

The biggest smile belongs to Ruth Davidson, leader

of the Scottish Tories, who displaced Labour to become

Have you been looking in the results in Scotland than just going whoa?

Even if you look at some of the seats...

We've just seen a few come through, the SNP have hold of one, but,

actually, with huge swings from the SNP to the Conservatives.

In Wales Ukip won their first seats on the Assembly,

meaning a comeback for the former Tory MP Neil Hamilton,

who managed to offend one Welshman within seconds.

I'm thoroughly Welsh through and through,

Here were are in virtually your hometown of Llanelli.

Just one correction, Neil, of course it's not

virtually my hometown - it is my hometown.

So let's be very accurate about that, shall we?

By lunchtime on Friday, us media types had realised that

nothing especially dramatic had happened, so we all hotfooted

it to City Hall to see Labour's Sadiq Khan elected

Though most of the chat among the hacks in the press room

was about the campaign run by his Tory rival, Zac Goldsmith,

which was described as mean and divisive.

I personally never went near central office in either

of my campaigns, and I don't think Boris Johnson did either.

Is that because they're not very good?

That's because you are the candidates, it is

your campaign and you should run it your way.

And Labour nabbed another mayor, in Bristol, taking over

The results from other campaigns around the UK are still

It's not been super exciting, but we have got a nice view

So with almost all the counting and number crunching across England,

Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland now finished, let's take a look

The SNP won the Scottish election, and will be the largest party

But Nicola Sturgeon's party fell two short of a majority, and will govern

Ruth Davidson's Conservatives overtook Labour to become the second

biggest party north of the border, with 31 seats.

Scottish Labour were pushed into 3rd place -

with 24 seats, down 13 from the last Holyrood election.

Labour remains the dominant party in Wales, winning 29

And Leanne Wood's Plaid Cymru pipped the Conservatives 12 to 11 to become

taking 7 seats in Wales - the first time they've sat

In Northern Ireland, the DUP will once again

They won 38 seats, with the next biggest party Sinn Fein on 28.

Results in the English councils were seen as a major test

And the party had a mixed night, winning the most councils -

but losing 23 councillors since the last elections in 2012.

There were two Westminster by-elections - with Labour

holding the seats of Sheffield Brightside and Ogmore.

And the Labour party won in London too -

where Sadiq Khan beat Zac Goldsmith to the mayoralty,

winning 57% of the vote on first preferences, to Goldsmith's 43%.

The Green Party came third in the London elections -

with their highest vote tally yet in the capital.

There were also new Mayors chosen in Bristol, Salford and Liverpool -

Finally, voters in 40 police forces in England and Wales

elected their new Police and Crime Commissioner.

With the Tories and Labour triumphing over independents.

With 36 of the 40 election results having declared, the Tories have won

What does this mean, in the round, for Labour? It is the worst possible

result for Labour, because it isn't good enough, and it isn't bad

enough, which is the worst-case scenario for anyone who wants Labour

to win in 2020. This is concerning the likes of Jeremy Corbyn and John

McDonnell, but it is the point of being a political party, winning

elections. Is it the worst of both worlds because they didn't do badly

enough? To justify ousting Corbyn, but they didn't do well enough to

suggest that Corbyn's people were right, and there was a groundswell

of opinion moving to the far left. We saw the message coming out from

the deputy leader on Friday morning, stand-down everyone, not yet. Do you

agree? No. Even if these results had been much worse, as many expected it

would be in the media and beyond, it still wouldn't have been the mood

now. It is all being played out in public. Tom Watson, the deputy

leader, gave an interview on Friday where he called ambiguously for

patients. What he meant was, it is far too early to remove a leader who

got an overwhelming mandate nine months ago in September. And he's

right about that. You can't do it if the party membership overwhelmingly

backs the leader. But what he meant by patients was, you don't have to

translate it, there is a time-limit to this. Jeremy Corbyn needs more

time to show he can put together a winning formula. If he fails in

that, at some point, there will be he and others who will trigger some

kind of challenge. So he's on a leasehold? Yes. He's not doing well

enough to suggest he will win the next election. I don't agree with

Julia that people are indifferent about winning elections. But party

members who voted for Jeremy Corbyn are absolutely different to winning

elections. I don't know. I assume that people who go out knocking on

doors want to win. Sadiq Khan. That was the big result for Labour, and

he won very comfortably. He won very strongly in the GLA as well. The

Tories did very badly. We have this strange situation where, despite

Sadiq Khan being the poster boy for the night, he still hasn't met

Jeremy Corbyn. Is Mr Khan going to be an alternative Labour Party based

around London City Hall? He tells us he's going to meet Jeremy Corbyn

tomorrow. Corbyn said they were going to meet today. It is a real

problem for Jeremy now because he is up against someone else with their

own mandate, an enormous one. 1.3 million Londoners, together with

their second preferences. A huge number. I think Sadiq Khan will use

that to be the mouthpiece of the moderates, the soft left. I would

suggest that if we were not looking at this through the prism of what it

means for Mr Corbyn, we may be pointing out that the Tories didn't

have a great night. They lost seats in England and Wales, they lost

London and their share of the vote in London is now under 30%. They

only got eight seats on the Greater London assembly. They are in their

worst position since 2004, which was the second time we had a London

election. It isn't brilliant for them. They would save the first year

in government, do get this kind of reaction. Or worse ones. At what is

overlooked in all this is that the last Labour government's post-97

devolution proposals has transformed UK politics. In Scotland, the

Conservatives are thrilled because they came second, but that wasn't

about David Cameron, it was about Ruth Davidson, their leader there.

In London, when people voted for Sadiq Khan, they were not thinking

about Jeremy Corbyn. They were voting for him. Unintentionally,

those devolution proposals have transformed UK politics, fracturing

the UK parties, and will no longer allow any single party to make those

sort of thousand seat gains that Blair did. But the Tories shouldn't

be too complacent about this. It wasn't a great result. It wasn't,

but who would expect it? The party is an absolute disarray, the deepest

divisions. We have had a senior Cabinet Minister resign, criticising

the Prime Minister and the Chancellor. If they did well this

time, I would be surprised. So the Tories should have done worse? They

should. I would disagree with your hypothesis to begin with, because

they are, in some parts of this country, making remarkable progress,

like Scotland. They could have lost seats. We know the Ruth Davidson

story. If David Cameron can show his own party he's still a winner, six

years into government, I would suggest he is pretty safe

post-referendum. Well, that is our panel's verdict.

So the high point for the Conservatives this week

was undoubtedly in Scotland, where a party once known

as the toxic Tories has become Ruth Davidson's Conservatives,

replacing Labour as Scotland's second party and becoming

the official opposition to the SNP at Holyrood.

Ruth Davidson successfully positioned herself as the only

person capable of standing up to Nicola Sturgeon over independence

This morning Nicola Sturgeon says "bring it on2.

Well we can speak now to Ruth Davidson, she joins us

Good morning. Are the Scottish Conservatives now quite separate

from the Tories? There was no appearance in your campaign from

ministers in Westminster. But our campaign was launched in March?

Other than that, did anybody come up to campaign for you? This was not

about London. It is a sophisticated electorate in Scotland. People knew

what they were voting for. This wasn't about who would be Prime

Minister. This was about who would be the First Minister of Scotland,

and who would be the Leader of the Opposition in Scotland. I made a

very clear campaign of what I would do if I were to be the Leader of the

Opposition, how I would hold the SNP to account, how I would say no to a

second independence referendum, and how I would concentrate on the

things that matter to ordinary Scots. Let's not go over the

campaign again! I could probably say those lines in my sleep! In what

ways to you now regard yourself as distinctive and different from the

English Tories? Since I took over as leader I was

the first leader in Scotland to be the leader of the entire party in

Scotland. In terms of fundraising, Pelissie... What made you different?

You had seen me takes on different policy decisions from my colleagues

down south, if you compare the manifestos you will see differences,

for one example, the right to buy for housing association houses. We

don't think that is appropriate for the housing market in Scotland. How

colleagues did down south. There is a distinct difference that. I wonder

if it was a Scottish Conservative idea or not. The title was Ruth

Davidson, a strong opposition. It did say Scottish Conservatives twice

on the front cover. And multiply many times inside. In the Times, the

roof, the whole truth and nothing but the roof. You created a new Tory

brand. -- Ruth the. We don't fight just as conservatives

in Scotland but conservatives in the Unionist party. The echoes of the

Unionist party played quite loud in this election was that they were

looking for people who would unequivocally stand up for the

decision we made just 20 months ago. I think that was an area we fought

strongly on now we have had some success. While I recognise a win for

the Scottish National party, they are now in a third term of

government, and I congratulated the First Minister, what was really

significant about the result is we managed to stop them having a

majority. They slipped back. This idea that they didn't put a clear

mandate for a referendum in their manifesto, unlike in 2011, and now

they don't even have a majority, that takes the second referendum off

the table for five years and give Scotland's stability. You say a

second referendum is off the cards and I understand the reasons why. I

suggest that means unionists in the rest of the UK you would like to

back Brexit can now do so without the fear of the second independence

referendum? I argued all through this campaign irrespective of what

happens with a referendum on Europe, that is not trigger point for a

second referendum. I haven't heard anyone in the SNP argued

successfully if there are was a Brexit... It is important we stay

part of the union in which we export so many goods and services. I have

yet to have anyone in the SNP explain it. But I look forward in

the coming weeks to hear them make the argument for that. Last time the

SNP were a majority government the Scottish Tories gave them crucial

support on budget votes. Can you see us of doing that again? I think

times move on. The SNP is no longer led by Alex Salmond... We know that.

I think we will be robust. I will seek to put forward alternatives. I

want to be as positive as I can be, not just crudely and blocking and

questioning, although all of that is important. The debate we haven't had

in Scotland for the last five years, but I want to put forward

alternatives. One area I think we can make common cause is reforming

education, it is a disgrace our school performances have gone back

in Scotland in recent years. We used to have the best education system

anywhere in the world. That is no longer the case. There is a lot I

can do to try and bring the SNP onto our ground. I managed in the last

parliament coming from third, in terms of school testing and money

not just being handed to local authorities, I think we got a wink,

teach first. There are real areas I think we can help the debate in

Scotland and put forward is positive or turn at its. You shouldn't

overplay your part. The SNP is still the dominant party in Holyrood, you

are second, but all the other opposition parties are to the left

of you. You're still a minority voice and won't be able to count on

the opposition, other opposition parties ganging up on your side? We

are a hugely important voice precisely because of the other side

in voices you have identified. The First Minister, like the Prime

Minister has competing and conflicting areas of interest: how

one way or another. You are right to say Nicola Sturgeon has that she

wants to make Scotland the highest in the UK. The other parties are

trying to drag a further left, taking more money out of the pocket

of ordinary working Scots. Our voice is crucial to pull her back to the

centre, saying that is not the way to look after the Beeb all working

hard and deserve a break in Scotland but also not the way to look after a

Scottish economy. Last month's figures, 20,000 rise in unemployment

in the UK, most of which came from Scotland. Our economic growth is a

fraction of the rest of the UK. We need to become a more competitive

country. That is an odd and I can make very strongly. Let me ask you

this, when you look at the huge powers that have been devolved

Scotland, and more on their way over schools, education, hospitals,

health, transport and now a chunk of tax as well, is it ever conceivable

that a Scottish MP from a Scottish constituency could ever again be

Prime Minister of the United given that they would have no

responsibility for so many things that affect the rest of the UK? Of

course. Typically in the last Labour government you had a health minister

who came from Lanarkshire in John Reid you had a chance of that came

from Edinburgh. Is that conceivable again, that you could have a Home

Secretary from a Scottish constituency, where everything on

the home front is essentially devolved to Scotland? It was

devolved at the time it was being taken over by John Reid. I know he

played Parliamentary bingo and got a lot of big jobs. If you have English

votes for English laws, a Scottish Prime Minister wouldn't even get to

vote on his own policies. Andrew, you and I have talked about this

many times. You saw our Strathclyde commission report, the basis that

the Smith commission, the devolution of all these powers on one of the

key aspects of that, looking at great detail with constitutional

expert, was to ensure it wouldn't divest Scotland away from the rest

of the UK. I don't think it does. In terms of all of the big jobs, I

think you will see another Scottish Prime Minister, or from Wales or

Northern Ireland. Talent will out. Do you think you've Zac Goldsmith

bought the kind of campaign you fought in Scotland the Conservatives

might have held on to the mayor? I don't qualify to talk about that,

I've only been to London once this year. I knew I had a job to deliver

here in Scotland. Even though I am a political geek I didn't watch the

London mayoral race that closely I had a job to do the. Thank you.

So Labour ended the week with a big result to feel cheerful about thanks

to Sadiq Khan's thumping win over Zac Goldsmith to become

The numeric macro has used his big job in office to reach out beyond

the activists, which sounds like criticism of Jeremy Corbyn. He was

talking to Andrew Marr earlier. We in Labour, our mission is to

improve people's lives, and change We only do that

by winning elections, by having a mandate

to improve people's lives. What are the challenges

facing Londoners? How do you tackle

the housing crisis? How do you ensure we have a modern

and affordable transport system? How do young people get

the skills of tomorrow? We only do that by speaking to those

people who previously By speaking to Tory voters,

to those outside of our tent. And my point is, we've got to

stop talking about ourselves. Well, to discuss this we're joined

from Leeds by Caroline Flint, she was of course a former minister

and was in Ed Miliband's Welcome back to the programme

Caroline Flint. Let me put Sadiq Khan's quote to you. So-called

natural Labour voters alone will never be enough to win a general

election. Have you seen any progress from Thursday's results that Jeremy

Corbyn's Labour Party is making progress in appealing to beyond the

faithful? We need to make a lot more progress, Andrew. Although we had a

fantastic result in London with Sadiq Khan, and I have to say the

Tory campaign was both shameful and disgusting. We won in Bristol with

Marvin and held onto councils like Crawley, Southampton and Redditch

and Hastings, where I have been many times. It is not enough. We have to

show that we are a party that is competitively challenging the

government. That is why, as Sadiq said in his interview in the

Observer today, we have to reach out beyond the big cities and reach out

to those people who voted Conservative to vote Labour. Then we

can have big politics for a big election and when it. What you say

to John McDonnell, been a bit too in your party, saying I think we are on

a steady course for victory in 2020. We are laying the foundations for

that long haul victory in 2020. Is he right or wrong? I believe in

honest straight talking politics. John McDonnell said in the run-up to

these elections, we are looking to hang on. Looking to hang on isn't

enough. This is the worst result for an opposition party after a general

election in 30th. The year after Michael foot was elected we gained

1000 council seats. Tony Blair 1800, Ed Miliband over 800. We actually

had a loss of 28. In fact, the Tories, when you look at directly

contested elections, gained three. It doesn't take away from the hard

work on the ground by Labour councillors, Parliamentary

candidates and members in these elections, but we need to be making

far more inroads to be within an opportunity to win in 2020. That is

the challenge for Jeremy. He deserves the right to lead, won the

election, but he has to show, what have the loan from these elections?

Will he talked people like Sadiq Khan to think about how we broaden

our appeal so we can be in a very strong position, 2020. How long has

it got to learn these lessons? Our members were only elected in

September last year. I said he won on a huge mandate. He has not only

won the right to be leader, he is the leader and our members believe

Labour leaders should have the time to prove themselves. But, you know

we know when the election is going to be, that is something relatively

new to our politics in Britain. We also know this election we have to

be honest about what the positive aspects and also about what didn't

work and where we need to gain ground. How long have you got?

People will be looking to hear from Jeremy what he's run and how he will

take us forward and they will be looking... We have elections next

year and the year after, but we have to ask ourselves is a party. I think

this is a really big task for Jeremy Tilse. We are having a debate about

what is the Labour Party for? We have to decide, are we a party of

protest or a mainstream, democratic socialist party which is

competitively challenging for government? If we are the latter,

which we should be, we need to have the politics and the leadership to

actually talk about that much, much more and take us board. That is

really important for all of us. We have to ask ourselves is well, we

have ten years of opposition here. We don't need another five on top of

that. John McDonnell thinks you begrudge things. He says, for

goodness sake get behind the leader, it is time to put up or shut up. I

am someone who loves the Labour Party. I joined in 1979, I know what

it's like... Put up or shut up? I am putting up. I put up in the House of

Commons, where I am working with John McDonnell's team on tax

transparency measures. We have a Tory party that should be absolutely

on the ropes. A jet measures they had to drop on tax credits, Sunday

trading they have had to drop, and I knew turned since the last general

election. The education policy in tatters, the Panama papers, it goes

on and on. The truth is we need to be making sure that the public know

about that and we have an alternative to that. At the moment,

despite all those issues facing the Tory party, we didn't make as much

progress as we showed. Let's be honest about these results, let's be

honest about we need to reach out beyond our core vote, just as Sadiq

Khan said. I hope John McDonnell will back me on that. Lets see if we

can continue with this honesty. Given Scotland is now effectively a

no go area for Labour, how could you ever hope to win the 2020 election

on England alone? You would need a 13 point lead, a bigger lead than

Tony Blair had. That is just not conceivable. It is a massive

challenge, Andrew. In Scotland are very disappointing night for

Scotland. I think how Scottish friends all know that the way back

for Labour will take some time. I wouldn't blame Jeremy Corbyn for

what happened in Scotland either. You are right. My understanding is

if we don't make the sort of comeback we need to in Scotland, in

the numbers were used to be able to rely on, we need to gain something

like 100 seats, 100 seats in England to have a majority. We need to have

that sort of talking within the party. Activists realise protests in

themselves will not be enough. Labour votes won't be enough and I'm

looking to Jeremy Corbyn to provide the leadership that.

A final question. What you say to several Tory MPs who have said to

me, and I quote, Mr Corbyn's survival is the single most

important thing for Tories for 2020? If we are not winning elections,

they will say that. In many respects, the Tories were probably

relatively relieved. Despite the shameful campaign they ran in

London, given everything that's been going on in government in the last

eight months, they should be quite relieved in terms of the result. We

need to show them that Jeremy can stand up and face those criticisms,

and the way he does that is by reaching out, as Sadiq Khan has

done, as have many councils across the country in keeping their seats,

and do the right thing for Labour. We need to move on, Caroline. Thank

you. So that's the view of one former

member of the Labour frontbench - we're joined now by the current

shadow energy minister Clive Lewis, he's in our Norwich studio -

welcome to the Sunday Politics. Morning, Andrew. Caroline Flint was

saying that George Osborne's latest budget is in ruins, the Tories are

tearing themselves apart over Europe, Iain Duncan Smith resigned

because of what the government is doing to the working poor. The best

Mr Corbyn could say was, we hung on. Is that good enough? Let's have a

look at the focus of the media to -- the media and the punditry. It was

issued in the Labour Party that was the core focus for you guys. You

brought that on yourselves. The bottom line is, at the start of your

programme, you began that the results of the Labour Party, when

actually, we were up 2% in the national share vote and the Tories

were down 5%. Yet you in your commentators started on how it was a

result for Labour. I'm not saying it was anything to shout about. But

let's look at the results. You need 13 points to win, so I would suggest

that one or two points is neither here nor there was yellow Caroline

Flint hit the nail on the head in that we have a massive task in front

of us. But infighting is not the way forward. That is not going to help

us achieve victory in 2020. We all know it is a massive uphill

struggle. We need to think how we can make the best effort to win in

2020, and that is what the next few weeks and months need to be about. I

agree with with so much of what Sadiq Khan said in his interview.

Why doesn't Jeremy Corbyn meet with him? I think he will. But he won the

capital city, by 14 points. It was an incredible victory, the first

Muslim leader of a major city in Europe. And Mr Corbyn, we haven't

seen him anywhere near him yet. It is a fantastic victory. Sadiq Khan

nominated Jeremy. He didn't vote for him, which is a brilliantly

principled position. Corbyn and Khan are comrades and good friends. They

have a lot to learn from each other. Sadiq Khan won because he was with

Jeremy Corbyn. All the people in London who are supporting the Labour

Party under Jeremy Corbyn and reaching out. I am sure that Sadiq

and Jeremy will meet in the near future. It is certainly unusual.

Caroline Flint has just told us that the Conservatives should be happy

and relieved by Thursday's results. I don't think they should. In Exeter

they lost four seats. In Ipswich, there were seats we didn't even win

in 97. Their share of the vote is down 5%. They didn't make the games

expected in Wales. I don't think it is a fantastic result for them at

all. I expect the Conservatives will try to turn the focus back on to

Labour, but I don't think they've got anything to crow about either at

the moment. What do you say to Ian Murray, the Scottish Secretary, the

only Labour MP in Scotland. He says, I don't think the public see the UK

Labour Party led by Jeremy Corbyn as being a credible party of future

government in 2020. I listened to the whole interview, and I respect

Ian Murray great real. I heard his statement. I think he was saying,

basically, where we are as a party at the moment isn't good enough. I

don't think you'll find anyone in the Labour Party who would disagree

with that. We need to move forward and consolidate. These results were

not the disaster that you and the punditry were predicting. We were

told 150 or 200 seats lost -- would be lost. We were told Jeremy Corbyn

wouldn't win, and then he won with a landslide. We won -- we heard that

the old by-election would be a disaster. And he won. I think the

thing to think about now is that politics is in flux. In the US, we

have a socialist running Hillary Clinton to the wire, but then you

have Donald Trump standing as well. People are concerned and angry, and

things are changing, and the punditry needs to take that into

account and reflect that things are changing. We will take that into

account. I never use the word disaster to talk about Labour's

performance on Thursday. Let's stick with that. I put to you that surely

the real lesson from Scotland is this - if you continue to attack

north of the border, as you have been, you need to do better in

England than even Tony Blair did in 97, and that, I put to you, is

frankly fantasy. Let's look at Scotland. It was a very difficult

night for us. I would rather you looked at England and tell me how

you will do well. This is the issue - what we have done in this weeks

election is consolidate our vote in 2015 and improve it by 2%. We now

need to move forward. We now have next to no chance of winning in 2020

if we remain a divided house, and that is what has happened at the

moment. What we can all learn from Sadiq was explaining is -- in his

interview is that we have consolidated our vote in 2015 and

improved it, and now we have to move on small businesses, to those who

are affected by the government cuts on public services. We need to reach

out to people who have voted Conservative in the past. I think it

is a message that Jeremy Corbyn has two and will listen to. But the key

thing is that a house divided has no chance of being able to do that in

2020. Thank you for joining us. It's just gone 11.35am -

you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

in Scotland, who leave us now we're going to be talking

about a big week ahead Hello and welcome to

the Sunday Politics Wales. As AMs make their way

to Cardiff Bay, what next The man who chairs the Tories

here tells me he wants answers after his party

lost seats on Thursday. Labour retained 29 seats,

but lost the Rhondda to Plaid. Elsewhere the Tories and Lib Dems

were disappointed to have lost James Williams now,

on where the parties go next. After a frantic few days and

sleepless nights, the dust is beginning to settle on the election.

But there are still big questions that need answering. The biggest of

which, what will Welsh Labour do? Having lost just one seat, will

Carwyn Jones and his party decide to do as they did last time round and

go it alone? I am quite relaxed about us going as a minority. You

get some strength from that because you know you have to do a deal with

people. It is not so difficult to where we were a few weeks with 30

seats and very similar to the SNP in Scotland. I am expecting there will

be a minority Labour government formed in the coming days or weeks.

After party leader Leanne Wood 's extraordinary victory, Plaid Cymru

finds itself back in second place. And as it stands, I detect little

appetite amongst the party 's top Raster formally joining coalition

with Labour. The Welsh Conservatives on the other hand have another

question to answer. There's Andrew RT Davies stay on as leader? This is

not that the time for knee jerk reaction. As a party, we will be

looking at this result and wondering why we did not quite make the

strides we were hoping to but equally we did not lose any first

past the post seats. We are competitive in seats we have never

won before. It is not a disaster. The Welsh Conservative Party is

still here and here in force in Wales but we need to look at why we

did not quite make up rate we were hoping to. One Conservative source

tells me that senior party members are quote rallying around Andrew RT

Davies, saying that the feeling is that he fought a good campaign and

was not to blame for the party 's poor results. One of the parties

Assembly Members tells me that the party needs to get away from this

football culture of sacking the manager after a bad result. But they

do expect a piece one member of the group in the assembly to challenge

Mr Davies' leadership post you would think Ukip having entered the

assembly for the first time would be busy celebrating. But they too are

pondering their leadership. The leader of the party in Wales is

myself. We will I'm sure be deciding who will be leading the group

amongst ourselves at our first group meeting which we will be having on

Tuesday. Do you expect to be challenged? I would not be surprised

if I was but that is healthy in democracy. I have no problem with

that. I have it on good authority that Neil Hamilton will challenge

Nathan Gill for leadership of the Ukip group in the assembly when the

party Assembly Members meet for the first time on Tuesday morning. I

understand that Nathan Gill is confident that he has the numbers

and the support to carry the vote. Another question that needs

answering, who will replace Dame Rosemary Butler as designing offers

a question with macro? I am told Kirsty Williams has been interested

in the post in the past but the name keeps cropping up is David melding,

a deputy in the last assembly. I am told he is interested in the post

and will would knock we will see if he has enough cross-party support.

Having answered some questions, the election nevertheless has posed

others. Perhaps we will have some certainty in the coming days.

Plenty of food for thought there, and here to chew it over

with me are two new kids on the Assembly block.

Jeremy Miles was elected for Labour in Neath,

and Sian Gwenllian who's the new Plaid Cymru AM for Arfon.

Thank you both very much for joining me this morning. Congratulations on

being voted in. We heard Carwyn Jones saying this morning, a tough

election for Labour, as good a result as you think it was, but

lessons need to be learned. What do you think that means? The first

thing is against great results the last election, 30 seats, it is a

great result this time, to manage to get 29 seats. I think that is the

first point to note. At underlying those headline results, there have

been swings against Labour and indeed against Plaid Cymru and the

Conservative Party in a number of constituencies and I think it is

important to understand what the electorate are saying to us in that

context. Were you surprised some of the constituencies did not go to the

Conservatives? And to Plaid Cymru? None of them managed to take seats,

with the notable exception of the Rhondda. I think it is read as a

that 29 was the upper end of expectations and that was as a

result, a very good result. But the campaigns in those seats, take

Llanelli for example, Lee Waters is a strong candidate and that paid

off. The party made the right judgment as to which of the seated

wanted to focus its energies in. Sian Gwenllian, the Rhondda is

something that many Plaid Cymru supporters will be delighted about

but apart from that personal debt three four Leanne Wood, is there a

disappointment that really on a national level Plaid Cymru went up

just over 1% Qusair Maki did not make a great breakthrough. It was an

excellent night for Plaid Cymru with the notable success four Leanne

Wood, it is still a very sweet for us as members of Plaid Cymru. But we

had successes in Ynys Mon, Ceredigion, Carmarthen, Cardiff

West, where the percentages increase. But gaining support is one

thing, unless you take seated means nothing. No wonder we were very

close in Aberconwy and Llanelli. But we have now a fantastic platform on

which to build and we have a fantastic team of people in the

assembly and we are ready to be working hard and also to be the

opposition, challenging the Labour government. There are clear messages

coming from the electorate that they may have voted for Labour but that

does not mean to say that they are completely happy with what has been

going on over the last 17 years. The messages we are getting through is

that they need now to really get to grips with some of the problems in

education and the health service and the economy and we will be holding

them to account on that. As you would expect them to do. Is there a

feeling that in those areas like part of the valleys, Blaenau Gwent,

down to 600 between you and Plaid Cymru, in the north-east of Wales,

the Conservatives are closing on, that they did not make those big

rigs whose this time but the writing is on the wall very much tearing

future elections? I think if you look at what has happened in

different constituencies, where the Labour Party 's vote has gone down,

the beneficiaries is different in different constituencies. That is

why I say the time for making the assessment on this is not really on

the hoof, just after the election. There needs to be a sober reflection

on the pattern across Wales. So that we learn the right messages. It is

fantastic to have the result that we have had. Other parties have not

woken through in the way it was expected, or at least they expected,

but it is incumbent upon us to reflect on why those majorities have

gone down in some places. What will change? You have the votes but is

people do seem to be wanting a change. We have seen problems with

health and education and so on. There's anything change now from a

Labour group point of view in the assembly? You take time to reflect

on some of those policies or do you think it is good to be business as

usual? It was laid out in the manifesto what we planned to do if

we were in government, as we will be for the next five years. And the

task in hand is to implement as much of that as we can. There have been

specific commitments in the areas of health, building on the reforms that

we have not implemented to date already. There have been commitments

on funding in education, a game building on what has been happening

in the last assembly. As Carwyn Jones himself said, we were putting

ourselves forward in the election as being halfway through a decade of

delivery and we want to complete that but there will be conversations

with parties as they were in the last assembly in order to make sure

that we can deliver as much that manifesto as we possibly can. We had

effectively the last assembly 30 seats, one was the presiding

officer, Carwyn Jones was able to deliver a programme of government by

having discussions with other parties. To get budgets through,

Sian Gwenllian, they will be drawing on support perhaps from Plaid Cymru.

What would be on top of your list of priorities? Of course, we will be

happy to cooperate so long as we feel that we can get deals that are

good for the people of Wales. My personal view is that we now should

move forward on the small business rates policy for example where there

is consensus across the board that we should be cutting those business

rates and childcare is another area as well. There is consensus on some

of those policies. The M4 relief road? Is that something you would be

keen to sort of maybe water down the plans there? Well, getting the

balance right on infrastructure projects between North and South

Wales is absolutely crucial now. If Labour are really going to prove to

the people of North Wales that they do care about North Wales, they

should now put aside their ideas for the M4 relief road, the option that

they are trying to back, and really start thinking about improving the

infrastructure in North Wales and pushing for the electrification of

the railways as well. Is not something that should be considered

quitting Mark we made commitments in the manifesto to the Eira roads in

North Wales, the Metro in North Wales. There are infrastructure

commitments in North Wales. The Metro North Wales is not going to

happen. That is just something that was a gimmick during the election. I

want to see the A55 improvements there to the infrastructure. Without

going into too much detail on particular projects, is it something

that there will have to be areas now, you say about your manifesto,

you have not got a majority, so some things are going to have to change?

Do you see room for manoeuvre on these things question mark Carwyn

Jones is having discussions with other parties. What those

discussions among two is in tidying matter for him and the objectives

and him. In order to get our programme through last assembly

without an absolute majority, conversations have to happen and I

expect that were continuing the next SMB. It is the right way to deal

with things. Thank you for coming in this morning.

There are two of the new Assembly Members, and there will be

almost two dozen newbies in the new session.

We know who they are and which parties they represent.

But what about the figures which haven't had an airing?

Rhodri Lewis now with your cut out and keep guide to who's

Over 60 who will be coming Cardiff Bay next week to begin work,

22, more than a third, are new to the job.

Well, OK, it is 21 plus one actually.

Dai Lloyd is back after retaking the seat he lost five years ago.

The number of women has increased by one.

My maths tells me that means there are therefore 35 men.

Minority ethnic group is make up about 4.5% of Wales' population

but only two will be in the new assembly.

Oscar Ashgar and Vaughan Gething both served last time round.

Hannah Blythyn, Jeremy Miles and Adam Price are the first openly

The Stonewall group said that was a milestone in democracy.

And Adam Price is also one of seven former MPs now in Cardiff Bay.

Three were already there but now there is also Huw Irranca-Davies,

who gave up his Commons seat, and he has been joined by two

others, who were kicked out by voters elsewhere.

And there will be drinks all round at the House of Lords

as peers celebrate doubling their representation.

Labour Eluned Morgan, AKA the Baroness Morgan of Ely,

joins Dafydd Elis-Thomas, Lord Elis-Thomas of Nant Conwy,

adding membership of the altogether younger Welsh institution to that

With Edwina Hart and Huw Lewis standing down and Leighton Andrews

out, Carwyn Jones has plenty of opportunity to

Could this be the biggest reshuffle seen in many years?

So something there of what we can expect in the days to come,

They lost seats and support on Thursday.

The first and only time they went backwards since devolution.

Their Chairman in Wales is Jonathan Evans.

I spoke to him a little earlier and began by asking him how

disappointing the results were for his party.

It is disappointing. I would prefer to be chairman of a party that

continued to add members of the assembly and add votes. Having said

that, we have to recognise this was always gone to be a difficult

election for us. Firstly, the UK Independence Party was standing in

every constituency in Wales and they have not done that previously. Polls

were indicating they were likely to go beyond the 7% threshold that

would win them regional seats. And date of our 20 regional seats are

held by the Conservatives. We were always likely to be under pressure

in regional seats. It was always gone to be your strategy to target

the constituencies. You gained constituencies last time. What went

wrong. The first thing to say is that we do not start from the

position that we had last time around. We start from the position

of the last assembly election in those seats because voters in Wales

now they vote somewhat differently in assembly elections to

Parliamentary elections. For instance, if you look at a seat like

Cardiff North, we do not start with a 2000 majority. We start with a

position where we are couple of thousand votes behind and in some

constituencies for example like the Vale of Glamorgan, they of Clwyd and

Wrexham, we are starting in a position where we are 4000 behind.

Was it just overhyped and over spun by the Conservatives who were

saying, look at north-east Wales, in play, the veil, Cardiff North, and

what we saw in Cardiff North, Julie Morgan doubling her majority. Was

there a touch of arrogance after last year 's election? I think the

position is we could see we were making progress in north-east Wales.

You do not know how much progress and it has to be said that which

even a swing of 9% as you know is an enormous swing. And people were

seeing that we were making progress. The final outcome is swings of five,

six, 7% in some constituencies in north-east Wales, down in the Gower,

a swing to us over 5%. These are enormous swings and I think they

were for people. But we did not manage to get over the line and also

in a couple of places, we went significantly back. Is Andrew RT

Davies the correct man to lead the Conservative group? Let me firstly

say he worked very hard in the cause of this election campaign. The whole

of the board of the Conservative Party apps recognises this. We were

very impressed by his performance and very import -- during the course

of the debates. It will be a matter for the Assembly group to decide who

ultimately is going to be the leader. As the chairman of the party

in Wales, I have already announced that we will be undertaking a review

of the last two election campaigns and I think that it may well be that

my colleagues in the assembly will be wanting to see what the outcome

of that review is before they start raising issues in terms of the

leadership. We have already hid grumblings. Semi-members were saying

to me they were not happy, Andrew needed to shoulder the burden on the

blame for this. Is your message, shut up for now I'd wait for this

review to come back? Or should they be questioning him? I do not know

who these Assembly Members because they have not been speaking to me

and I am the chairman of the party. I speak for all of these people.

Now, amongst those activists, it is very likely we are going to divide

over the next five weeks. Some of us as I have said in my own case will

be there trying to make the case alongside the Secretary of State for

Wales for us to aim within the European Union. I think none of us

wants to see a situation in which the Conservative Party in Wales

spends about five week period arguing about who is leading us in

the assembly. Let's focus on dealing with the referendum issue first.

Well, it's been a big week for Welsh politics with potentially lots

You have had a bit of time to recover. What stood out for you on

the night? The single moment was Leanne Wood 's spectacular victory

in the Rhondda but for me it was a series of moments and it was a

succession of veteran Labour Assembly Members and people like Ann

Jones, Julie Morgan, it Jane Hutt, Lesley Griffiths, seeing off the

Tory challenge in those constituencies, those marginal

constituencies where potentially they really could have been hurt.

And it was brutally effective and if you throw into the mix the other

marginals where they are against the Lib Dems, Cardiff Central, Plaid

Cymru in Llanelli, it was extraordinary. I really thought they

would have lost one of those marginals, at least, somewhere along

the line but to hold all of them was impressive. There was a good

headline, the women what won it for Labour. To what extent do you think

the Labour Party were a little lucky this time around? There is no doubt

that the steel crisis gave him a platform while Sajid Javid was on a

plane in Australia somewhere, Stephen Kinnock, I know he is an MP

that he was with the unions and there was a 24-hour period where

every interview I saw with Carwyn Jones had the blast furnaces in the

background. It just gave them a platform to go on. You throw into

the big question about tax affairs of senior Conservative politicians

at Westminster and I think the other issue is on the NHS, you had this

simmering row about the junior doctors strike in England that

actually peaked as we were approaching polls for the assembly

election and it just helped him, Carwyn Jones, deflect any criticism

of the NHS in Wales. Does that explain away the problems for the

Tories? We know there is a postmortem, they will see what went

wrong this way round, what do you think? The Tories and all the other

opposition parties, a central line of attack that Labour have been in

power for 17 years, it is time for a change, clearly was not as effective

as they would have liked. From the Conservatives prospective and from

Jonathan Evans, talking about squeezing the majorities, but the

point is, after taking Gower for the first time in 100 years in the

general election last year, taking the rate of fluid on the NHS and

this was the election on the state of the Welsh NHS, not a year ago, I

think squeezing the majority is not good to be good enough for the

Conservatives this time around -- the Vale of Clwyd. It is good to be

difficult for Andrew RT Davies. We are told he is reflecting on the

future at the moment. Any decision will be wrapped up now in the

European Union referendum. Things may be put on hold for the time

being. Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems, what can we expect from Ukip? Plaid

Cymru broadly come not a great night, very benign conditions, you

could argue with Ukip taking chunks out of the labour and Conservative

vote. They may not have that in the future. But at least they have

something to build on and that result in the Rhondda will give them

a degree of confidence. The Lib Dems, what is left to say about the

Lib Dems Goschen Markley of easily have a huge rebuilding job and the

question is whether things have fallen to such a low levels they can

possibly come back. Historically, they have had bounceback ability.

That is put to the test time now. Ukip are meeting on Tuesday to talk

about the leadership there. Do we think that constant infighting is

gone to continue? It is. They are going to be scrapping publicly. They

will be scrapping against other people and political journalists

like you and I to some extent will have to readjust our antenna in

terms of how we recover Assembly politics because they will operate

in a totally different way to any of the other parties. Thank you very

much. Don't forget you follow

all the latest on twitter. But for now that's all from me,

diolch am wylio, weeks. Thank you for joining us.

Andrew, from here in London, back to you.

Welcome back. The panel is assembled, and we will be talking

about the EU referendum shortly, particularly about Tory splits in

that referendum. First, let's get a reaction to what you have been

hearing on the show. Caroline Flint was very interesting. She said the

things that the moderates have said before, we will need to do better

than this, for example. She also repeated the Tom Watson line, which

is that our members think that he deserves more time. I'm not even

sure that if he had lost London there would have been a coup. There

was lots of talk and rumbles, but there is going to be this one this

year for sure. The argument from the moderates is that he needs more time

because of the mandate. At no point have the Labour voters who voted for

Jeremy Corbyn going to say, time is up now. In 2020 when Labour go to a

landslide defeat, they will still not think there was an argument for

Corbyn not to be leader. There is nothing to be gained by waiting and

everything to be lost. When I hear about people talking about the need

for unity and lack of squabbling, it did remind me of the appeals that

used to be made among Tories during the Maastricht debacle in the early

90s, but it never happened, of course. When there are divisions,

you can't hide them. This drama is being played out in public. Tom is

right. What the so-called moderates are doing now is much more sensible,

which is to say, there won't be a coup. The hints that there might be

have stopped. There will not be a coup for now, and they are framing

it very sensibly with that Watson line, patience. He has this mandate

from last September. It's far too early to challenge the mandate when

he is still popular with the membership. But let's frame it to

see whether he can be an election winner, and that is fair. If he

isn't an election winner, they hope at some point to persuade the

membership... That they will not persuade the membership. The polls

told the members he would not be an election winner and they voted for

him anyway. What was always not a feasible option to them, although

some were contemplating it, was moving now. It's too early. There is

a caveat there, which is that there is no electoral trigger in 2017. He

will not be electorally tested in 2017, as it is all about the shires.

With the local elections over you can expect the referendum

campaign to get as hot as a Sunday afternoon in early May.

And, in case you'd forgotten, this is an argument which has pitched

former close Cabinet allies against one another.

Here's Justice Secretary Michael Gove and Chancellor George Osborne

They are giving part of the economic case for each side of the debate.

If we look at the arguments that are made now about how Britain might

suffer outside the European Union economic play, they are all

arguments that are a reprise, a rerun of the original case

that was made against staying outside the single currency.

But more than that, you can see how countries which are outside

the European Union are able to forge trade deals and to grow faster

One of the striking things about the EU, is that is has brought

economic insecurity and massive youth unemployment to countries

I'm pretty clear that there will be a significant hit to the value of

people's homes and to the cost of mortgages. That's one example of the

kind of economic impact that we get from leaving the youth. The Leave

campaign is today saying they would leave the single market. For me,

that is an absolutely catastrophic economic mistake our country.

Michael Gove said this morning to Andrew Marr that the relations

between the warring Tory cabinet ministers were still cordial. Do you

believe them, or have a squadron of pigs just flown over the studio? Of

course it isn't cordial. No more than what is going on in the Labour

Party right now. There is this debate going on. I have wanted a

referendum for many years on this issue. It is extraordinary that we

have just had the Chancellor of the Exchequer, who has supported the

idea of the EU referendum, saying it is catastrophic the dash it would be

catastrophic. If one of the options is catastrophic, how irresponsible

to have it. In September, they were saying, we haven't finished the

negotiations yet and we don't know which way we are going to go. He

either lied then, or he is lying now. Which is it? Has this not

turned out to be more rancorous, even much more rancorous, than Mr

Cameron and George Osborne ever envisaged to three months ago. If

you go back to the row we were initially having in January about

collective responsibility, which is, will Cameron allow or not allow his

cabinet to campaign for leave, and he lost that one. But in May, using

key had a point. Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, big hitters doing immense

damage to the Tory brand and to Tory unity. Things bubbling up of late

are the way that ministers like Priti Patel going for issues like

NHS funding. We can pay the NHS more if we left the EU, which means we

are not paying enough. That hits right at the heart of government

policies. The moment collective responsibility ends, a spell that is

cast over us that they all agree with everybody about everything, we

never see it in the same way again. In 75 with Harold Wilson - will you

remember that? And never again they say that Mr Benn and Mr Wilson and

all those people were on the same song sheet. He very clever Rees said

an agreement to differ -- very cleverly said. But it was the

differing that stood out. We all were two young! But Harold Wilson

never played the prominent part in the campaign that David Cameron has

played. He kind of stood back from it all. Very clever. But also, using

the government's power, it has turned nasty because of the way that

the government's Remain side has played it. And some of the

ridiculous claims that have been made. People come up to me all the

time and say, wide you think this? We want facts. People are crying out

for the facts. The Chancellor saying it is going to be catastrophic is

absolute and utter nonsense. We know that because the Prime Minister said

last year himself that it wouldn't be. Michael Gove said today that he

wasn't bothered about being part of the single market. Given that the

economic debate is... If you look at the private polling they are doing,

the Remain side think they are winning the economic argument. The

Leave side think that they will win on immigration, controlling borders

and national sovereignty and so on. To say that it doesn't matter if we

are in the single market, even if there is a price to pay, could come

to haunt the Leave side. I think it is an error. When in the Scottish

referendum campaign, Alex Salmond was fudging over the currency issue,

the fact that he fudged it meant that he could never say what would

actually happen. I think a lot of people will be bothered about being

out of the single market, including a lot of their natural supporters,

and some business people. I think they are losing the debate on the

economy, and that will be more pivotal in the end. The ordinary

response to the Remain campaigners about being in the single market

is... If you seriously think that BMW is going to go to Angela Merkel

and say that they are happy to have 3% WTO tariffs to our biggest market

in the UK, that is insane. Gordon Brown has been brought out for the

Remain campaign. He had an intervention in the Scottish

referendum. I wonder if it could be a repeat for months, because I

wonder how much Mr Brown resonates south of the border? You would be

tempted to think absolutely not, because Gordon Brown is still a

hugely respected figure in Scotland, perhaps less in England. But the key

voters, the undecideds, art those middle ranking people. Not those

posh people or the people who have made up their minds to leave. The

public sector worker, perhaps, middle ranking people. They could

crucially play a row role in organising -- galvanising Labour

voters. How do you persuade them enough to care? Referendums are

dangerous for Prime Minister. They produce wacky sequences. David

Cameron was a king for Jeremy Corbyn to do well when he was making a

speech in support of staying in. That is what happens in referendums,

you become desperate for your previous enemies to survive and

flourish. The Labour vote is important. If that doesn't come out,

it would be disastrous for Remain. And people in favour of Brexit are

going to be more keen to vote because they feel more passionately.

It is difficult to be passionate about remaining in the EU. And those

who are passionate about coming out are quite eurosceptic. -- about

staying in our quite eurosceptic. Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne would put

themselves in that category. The EU is constantly being reformed. But

not in the direction we want to. And the heads of MI5 and MI6 supported

staying in this morning. George Osborne wants to play the security

card. Whether they are right or wrong, I would suggest that

security, in terms of fighting terrorism and keeping our borders

secure, is not something that British people associate naturally

with the EU. You are absolutely right. The remainers started off

thinking that security would be a big catchphrase, but it hasn't

worked. It is a score draw at best, largely because migration has come

to play in this security argument. A former head of MI6 has said that it

doesn't matter. Remain have got to say something in this. The best they

can hope for is, their best suit is the economy, and leave immigration.

That is the danger of the security issue. If you bring up security, you

can quickly move on to immigration. They can say, you cannot really be

secure and less you can control our borders. The moment you got on to

immigration, it is highly emotive and the doubters have got some --

those who support out have got some clout on this. As long as the

economy is centre stage, and most people assume that Remain are

winning that argument, I think that is as Sagna second as going back to

75. The polls show that they are ahead on the economy. The 200 page

Treasury document was predicated on GDP, but actually it was predicated

on an extra 3 million immigrants coming to this country by 2030. We

shall see what happens in the next couple of

months. We'll be back at the same

time, 11.00 next week. You can watch the Daily Politics

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