18/12/2016 Sunday Politics Wales


18/12/2016

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LineFromTo

Morning, folks, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.

:00:40.:00:41.

Hard line remainers strike back at Brexit.

:00:42.:00:43.

Are they trying to overturn the result of June's referendum

:00:44.:00:46.

by forcing a second vote before we leave?

:00:47.:00:49.

Australia's man in London tells us that life outside the EU "can be

:00:50.:00:52.

pretty good" and that Brexit will "not be as hard as people say".

:00:53.:00:56.

Could leaving the EU free Britain to do more business

:00:57.:00:59.

It's been called "disgusting, dangerous and deadly"

:01:00.:01:05.

but how polluted is our air, how bad for our health,

:01:06.:01:10.

Carwyn Jones tells us why he decided to drop child poverty targets

:01:11.:01:14.

and a look back on the Welsh political year that was

:01:15.:01:18.

And with me in the Sunday Politics grotto, the Dasher, Dancer

:01:19.:01:31.

and Prancer of political punditry Iain Martin,

:01:32.:01:34.

They'll be delivering tweets throughout the programme.

:01:35.:01:43.

First this morning, some say they will fight

:01:44.:01:48.

for what they call a "soft Brexit", but now there's an attempt by those

:01:49.:01:52.

who campaigned for Britain to remain in the EU to allow the British

:01:53.:01:55.

people to change their minds - possibly with a second referendum -

:01:56.:01:58.

The Labour MEP Richard Corbett is revealed this morning to have

:01:59.:02:02.

tried to amend European Parliament resolutions.

:02:03.:02:03.

The original resolution called on the European Parliament

:02:04.:02:06.

to "respect the will of the majority of the citizens

:02:07.:02:09.

of the United Kingdom to leave the EU".

:02:10.:02:25.

He also proposed removing the wording "stress that this wish

:02:26.:02:30.

must be respected" and adding "while taking account of the 48.1%

:02:31.:02:33.

The amendments were proposed in October,

:02:34.:02:45.

but were rejected by a vote in the Brussels

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Constitutional Affairs Committee earlier this month.

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The report will be voted on by all MEPs in February.

:02:51.:02:52.

Well, joining me now from Leeds is the Labour MEP who proposed

:02:53.:02:55.

Good morning. Thanks for joining us at short notice. Is your aim to try

:02:56.:03:05.

and reverse what happened on June 23? My aim with those amendments was

:03:06.:03:10.

simply factual. It is rather odd that these amendments of two months

:03:11.:03:13.

ago are suddenly used paper headlines in three very different

:03:14.:03:19.

newspapers on the same day. It smacks of a sort of concerted effort

:03:20.:03:25.

to try and slapped down any notion that Britain might perhaps want to

:03:26.:03:31.

rethink its position on Brexit as the cost of Brexit emerges. You

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would like us to rethink the position even before the cost urges?

:03:37.:03:41.

I get lots of letters from people saying how one, this was an advisory

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referendum won by a narrow majority on the basis of a pack of lies and a

:03:47.:03:52.

questionable mandate. But if there is a mandate from this referendum,

:03:53.:03:56.

it is surely to secure a Brexit that works for Britain without sinking

:03:57.:03:59.

the economy. And if it transpires as we move forward, that this will be a

:04:00.:04:04.

very costly exercise, then there will be people who voted leave who

:04:05.:04:08.

said Hang on, this is not what I was told. I was told this would save

:04:09.:04:13.

money, we could put it in the NHS, but if it is going to cost us and

:04:14.:04:15.

our Monday leg, I would the right to reconsider. But

:04:16.:04:32.

your aim is not get a Brexit that would work for Britain, your aim is

:04:33.:04:35.

to stop it? If we got a Brexit that would work for Britain, that would

:04:36.:04:38.

respect the mandate. But if we cannot get that, if it is going to

:04:39.:04:41.

be a disaster, if it is going to cost people jobs and cost Britain

:04:42.:04:43.

money, it is something we might want to pause and rethink. The government

:04:44.:04:47.

said it is going to come forward with a plan. That is good. We need

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to know what options to go for as a country. Do we want to stay in the

:04:54.:05:00.

single market, the customs union, the various agencies? And options

:05:01.:05:02.

should be costed so we can all see how much they cost of Brexit will

:05:03.:05:09.

be. If you were simply going to try and make the resolution is more

:05:10.:05:13.

illegal, why did the constitutional committee vote them down? This is a

:05:14.:05:21.

report about future treaty amendments down the road for years

:05:22.:05:27.

to come. This was not the main focus of the report, it was a side

:05:28.:05:35.

reference, in which was put the idea for Association partnerships. Will

:05:36.:05:41.

you push for the idea before the full parliament? I must see what the

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text is. You said there is a widespread view in labour that if

:05:49.:05:55.

the Brexit view is bad we should not exclude everything, I take it you

:05:56.:05:59.

mean another referendum. When you were named down these amendments,

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was this just acting on your own initiative, or acting on behalf of

:06:07.:06:10.

the Labour Party? I am just be humble lame-duck MEP in the European

:06:11.:06:18.

Parliament. It makes sense from any point of view that if the course of

:06:19.:06:22.

action you have embarked on turns out to be much more costly and

:06:23.:06:26.

disastrous than you had anticipated, that you might want the chance to

:06:27.:06:31.

think again. You might come to the same conclusion, of course, but you

:06:32.:06:35.

might think, wait a minute, let's have a look at this. But let's be

:06:36.:06:41.

clear, even though you are deputy leader of Labour in the European

:06:42.:06:45.

Parliament, you're acting alone and not as Labour Party policy? I am

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acting in the constitutional affairs committee. All I am doing is stating

:06:54.:06:57.

things which are common sense. If as we move forward then this turns out

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to be a disaster, we need to look very carefully at where we are

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going. But if a deal is done under Article 50, and we get to see the

:07:06.:07:11.

shape of that deal by the end of 2019 under the two-year timetable,

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in your words, we won't know if it is a disaster or not until it is

:07:17.:07:21.

implemented. We won't be able to tell until we see the results about

:07:22.:07:27.

whether it is good or bad, surely? We might well be able to, because

:07:28.:07:35.

that has to take account of the future framework of relationships

:07:36.:07:39.

with the European Union, to quote the article of the treaty. That

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means we should have some idea about what that will be like. Will we be

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outside the customs union, for instance, which will be very

:07:47.:07:50.

damaging for our economy? Or will we have to stay inside and follow the

:07:51.:07:56.

rules without having a say on them. We won't know until we leave the

:07:57.:07:59.

customs union. You think it will be damaging, others think it will give

:08:00.:08:03.

us the opportunity to do massive trade deals. My case this morning is

:08:04.:08:07.

not what is right or wrong, we will not know until we have seen the

:08:08.:08:11.

results. We will know a heck of a lot more than we do now when we see

:08:12.:08:15.

that Article 50 divorce agreement. We will know the terms of the

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divorce, we will know how much we still have to pay into the EU budget

:08:19.:08:23.

for legacy costs. We will know whether we will be in the single

:08:24.:08:28.

market customs union or not. We will know about the agencies. We will

:08:29.:08:33.

know a lot of things. If the deal on the table looks as if it will be

:08:34.:08:36.

damaging to Britain, then Parliament will be in its rights to say, wait a

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minute, not this deal. And then you either renegotiate or you reconsider

:08:43.:08:46.

the whole issue of Brexit or you find another solution. We need to

:08:47.:08:51.

leave it there but thank you for joining us.

:08:52.:08:56.

Iain Martin, how serious is the attempt to in effect an wind what

:08:57.:09:02.

happened on June 23? I think it is pretty serious and that interview

:09:03.:09:07.

illustrates very well the most damaging impact of the approach

:09:08.:09:11.

taken by a lot of Remainers, which is essentially to say with one

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breath, we of course accept the result, but with every action

:09:19.:09:20.

subsequent to that to try and undermine the result or try and are

:09:21.:09:24.

sure that the deal is as bad as possible. I think what needed to

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happen and hasn't happened after June 23 is you have the extremists

:09:30.:09:34.

on both sides and you have in the middle probably 70% of public

:09:35.:09:40.

opinion, moderate leaders, moderate Remainers should be working together

:09:41.:09:46.

to try and get British bespoke deal. But moderate Leavers will not take

:09:47.:09:53.

moderate Remainers seriously if this is the approach taken at every

:09:54.:09:57.

single turn to try and rerun the referendum. He did not say whether

:09:58.:10:07.

it was Labour policy? That was a question which was ducked. I do not

:10:08.:10:11.

think it is Labour Party policy. I think most people are in a morass in

:10:12.:10:18.

the middle. I think the screaming that happens when anybody dares to

:10:19.:10:21.

question or suggest that you might ever want to think again about these

:10:22.:10:26.

things, I disagree with him about having another referendum but if he

:10:27.:10:30.

wants to campaign for that it is his democratic right to do so. If you

:10:31.:10:33.

can convince enough people it is a good idea then he has succeeded. But

:10:34.:10:39.

the idea that we would do a deal and then realise this is a really bad

:10:40.:10:44.

deal, let's not proceed, we will not really know that until the deal is

:10:45.:10:51.

implemented. What our access is to the single market, whether or not we

:10:52.:10:54.

are in or out of the customs union which we will talk about in a

:10:55.:10:58.

minute, what immigration policy we will have, whether these are going

:10:59.:11:03.

to be good things bad things, surely you have got to wait for four, five,

:11:04.:11:08.

six years to see if it has worked or not? Yes, and by which stage

:11:09.:11:12.

Parliament will have voted on it and there will be no going back from it,

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or maybe there will. We are talking now about the first three months of

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2019. That is absolutely the moment when Parliament agrees with Theresa

:11:22.:11:29.

May or not. One arch remain I spoke to, and arch Remainiac, he said that

:11:30.:11:39.

Theresa May will bring this to Parliament in 2019 and could say I

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recommend that we reject it. What is he on or she? Some strong chemical

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drugs! The point is that all manner of things could happen. I don't

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think any of us take it seriously for now but the future is a very

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long way away. Earlier, the trade Secretary Liam Fox was asked if we

:12:06.:12:09.

would stay in the customs union after Brexit.

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There would be limitations on what we would do in terms of tariff

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setting which could limit the deals we would do, but we want to look at

:12:19.:12:24.

all the different deals. There is hard Brexit and soft Brexit as if it

:12:25.:12:28.

is a boiled egg we are talking about. Turkey is in part of the

:12:29.:12:32.

customs union but not other parts. What we need to do is look at the

:12:33.:12:40.

cost. This is what I picked up. The government knows it cannot remain a

:12:41.:12:44.

member of the single market in these negotiations, because that would

:12:45.:12:49.

make us subject to free movement and the European Court. The customs

:12:50.:12:52.

union and the Prime Minister 's office doesn't seem to be quite as

:12:53.:12:57.

binary, that you can be a little bit in and a little bit out, but I would

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suggest that overall Liam Fox knows to do all the trade deals we want to

:13:01.:13:05.

do we basically have to be out. But what he also seems to know is that

:13:06.:13:10.

is a minority view in Cabinet. He said he was not going to give his

:13:11.:13:15.

opinion publicly. There is still an argument going on about it in

:13:16.:13:25.

Cabinet. When David Liddington struggled against Emily Thornbury

:13:26.:13:27.

PMQs, he did not know about the customs union. What is apparent is

:13:28.:13:31.

Theresa May has not told him what to think about that. If we stay in the

:13:32.:13:37.

customs union we cannot do our own free trade deals. We are behind the

:13:38.:13:44.

customs union, the tariff barriers set by Europe? Not quite. Turkey is

:13:45.:13:49.

proof of the pudding. There are limited exemptions but they can do

:13:50.:13:54.

free trade with their neighbours. Not on goods. They are doing a trade

:13:55.:14:02.

deal with Pakistan at the moment, it relies on foreign trade investment

:14:03.:14:05.

but Europe negotiates on turkey's behalf on the major free-trade

:14:06.:14:10.

deals. This is absolutely why the customs union will be the fault line

:14:11.:14:14.

for the deal we are trying to achieve. Interestingly, I thought

:14:15.:14:18.

Liam Fox suggested during that interview that he was prepared to

:14:19.:14:22.

suck up whatever it was. I think he was saying there is still an

:14:23.:14:28.

argument and he intends to win it. He wants to leave it because he

:14:29.:14:36.

wants to do these free-trade deals. There is an argument in the cabinet

:14:37.:14:40.

about precisely that. The other thing to consider is in this country

:14:41.:14:46.

we have tended to focus too much on the British angle in negotiations,

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but I think the negotiations are going to be very difficult. You look

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at the state of the EU at the moment, you look at what is

:14:54.:14:56.

happening in Italy, France, Germany, look at the 27. It is possible I

:14:57.:15:03.

think that Britain could design a bespoke sensible deal but then it

:15:04.:15:08.

becomes very difficult to agree which is why I ultimately think we

:15:09.:15:15.

are heading for a harder Brexit. It will be about developing in this

:15:16.:15:16.

country. So, we've had a warning this week

:15:17.:15:21.

that it could take ten years to do a trade deal

:15:22.:15:24.

with the EU after Brexit. But could opportunities to expand

:15:25.:15:26.

trade lie elsewhere? Australia was one of the first

:15:27.:15:28.

countries to indicate its willingness to do a deal

:15:29.:15:30.

with the UK and now its High Commissioner in London has told

:15:31.:15:33.

us that life outside the EU He made this exclusive film

:15:34.:15:36.

for the Sunday Politics. My father was the Australian High

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Commissioner in the early 70s when the UK joined

:15:53.:15:54.

the European Union, Now I'm in the job,

:15:55.:15:57.

the UK is leaving. Australia supported

:15:58.:16:05.

Britain remaining a member of the European Union,

:16:06.:16:07.

but we respect the decision that Now that the decision has been made,

:16:08.:16:10.

we hope that Britain will get on with the process

:16:11.:16:15.

of negotiating their exit from the European Union and make

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the most of the opportunities that Following the referendum decision,

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Australia approached the British Government

:16:24.:16:29.

with a proposal. We offered, when the time was right,

:16:30.:16:32.

to negotiate a free trade agreement. The British and Australian

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governments have already established a working group to explore a future,

:16:36.:16:41.

ambitious trade agreement once A free trade agreement will provide

:16:42.:16:44.

great opportunities for consumers Australian consumers could purchase

:16:45.:16:56.

British-made cars for less We would give British

:16:57.:17:01.

households access to cheaper, Our summer is during your winter,

:17:02.:17:07.

so Australia could provide British households with fresh produce

:17:08.:17:13.

when the equivalent British or Australian households would have

:17:14.:17:16.

access to British products Free-trade agreements

:17:17.:17:24.

are also about investment. The UK is the second-largest source

:17:25.:17:36.

of foreign investment in Australia. By the way, Australia also invests

:17:37.:17:40.

over ?200 billion in the UK, so a free trade agreement

:17:41.:17:47.

would stimulate investment, But, by the way, free-trade

:17:48.:17:49.

agreements are not just about trade and investment,

:17:50.:17:55.

they are also about geopolitics. Countries with good trade relations

:17:56.:17:59.

often work more closely together in other fields including security,

:18:00.:18:03.

the spread of democracy We may have preferred

:18:04.:18:06.

the UKto remain in the EU, We may have preferred the UK

:18:07.:18:20.

to remain in the EU, but life outside as we know can

:18:21.:18:23.

be pretty good. We have negotiated eight free-trade

:18:24.:18:25.

agreements over the last 12 years, including a free-trade agreement

:18:26.:18:28.

with the United States This is one of the reasons why

:18:29.:18:30.

the Australian economy has continued to grow over the last 25 years

:18:31.:18:42.

and we, of course, are not Australia welcomes Theresa May's

:18:43.:18:45.

vision for the UK to become a global We are willing to help

:18:46.:18:55.

in any way we can. Welcome to the programme. The

:18:56.:19:24.

Australian government says it wants to negotiate an important trade deal

:19:25.:19:28.

with the UK as efficiently and promptly as possible when Brexit is

:19:29.:19:34.

complete. How prompt is prompt? There are legal issues obviously.

:19:35.:19:39.

The UK, for as long as it remains in the EU, cannot negotiate individual

:19:40.:19:45.

trade deals. Once it leaves it can. We will negotiate a agreement with

:19:46.:19:49.

the UK when the time is right, by which we mean we can do preliminary

:19:50.:19:55.

examination. Are you talking now about the parameters? We are talking

:19:56.:20:00.

already, we have set up a joint working group with the British

:20:01.:20:04.

Government and we are scoping the issue to try to understand what

:20:05.:20:07.

questions will arise in any negotiation. But we cannot have

:20:08.:20:13.

formally a negotiation. Until the country is out. Why is there no

:20:14.:20:20.

free-trade deal between Australia and the European Union? It is a long

:20:21.:20:23.

and tortuous story. Give me the headline. Basically Australian

:20:24.:20:30.

agriculture is either banned or hugely restricted in terms of its

:20:31.:20:36.

access to the European Union. So we see the European Union, Australia's,

:20:37.:20:40.

is a pretty protectionist sort of organisation. Now we are doing a

:20:41.:20:45.

scoping study on a free-trade agreement with the European Union

:20:46.:20:49.

and we hope that next year we can enter into negotiations with them.

:20:50.:20:54.

But we have no illusions this would be a very difficult negotiation, but

:20:55.:21:00.

one we are giving priority to. Is there not a danger that when Britain

:21:01.:21:05.

leaves the EU the EU will become more protectionist? This country has

:21:06.:21:09.

always been the most powerful voice for free trade. I hope that does not

:21:10.:21:14.

happen, but the reason why we wanted Britain to remain in the European

:21:15.:21:20.

Union is because it brought to the table the whole free-trade mentality

:21:21.:21:25.

which has been an historic part of Britain's approach to international

:21:26.:21:28.

relations. Without the UK in the European Union you will lose that.

:21:29.:21:33.

It is a very loud voice in the European Union and you will lose

:21:34.:21:37.

that voice and that will be a disadvantage. The figure that jumped

:21:38.:21:43.

out of me in the film is it to you only 15 months to negotiate a

:21:44.:21:46.

free-trade deal with the United States. Yes, the thing is it is

:21:47.:21:51.

about political will. A free-trade agreement will be no problem unless

:21:52.:21:57.

you want to protect particular sectors of your economy. In that

:21:58.:22:02.

case there was one sector the Americans insisted on protecting and

:22:03.:22:07.

that was their sugar industry. In the end after 15 months of

:22:08.:22:11.

negotiation two relatively free trading countries have fixed up

:22:12.:22:16.

nearly everything. But we had to ask would be go ahead with this

:22:17.:22:20.

free-trade agreement without sugar west we decided to do that. Other

:22:21.:22:25.

than that it was relatively easy to negotiate because we are both

:22:26.:22:30.

free-trade countries. With the UK you cannot be sure, but I do not

:22:31.:22:33.

think a free-trade agreement would take very long to negotiate with the

:22:34.:22:39.

UK because the UK would not want to put a lot of obstacles in the way to

:22:40.:22:44.

Australia. Not to give away our hand, we would not want to put a lot

:22:45.:22:48.

of obstacles in the way of British exports. The trend in recent years

:22:49.:22:54.

is to do big, regional trade deals, but President-elect Donald Trump has

:22:55.:22:59.

made clear the Pacific trade deal is dead. The transatlantic trade deal

:23:00.:23:04.

is almost dead as well. The American election put a nail in the coffin

:23:05.:23:07.

and the French elections could put another nail in the coffin. Are we

:23:08.:23:13.

returning to a world of lateral trade deals, country with country

:23:14.:23:16.

rather than regional blocs? Not necessarily. In the Asia Pacific we

:23:17.:23:24.

will look at multilateral trade arrangements and even if the

:23:25.:23:27.

transpacific partnership is not ratified by the Americans, we have

:23:28.:23:31.

other options are there. However, our approach has been the ultimate

:23:32.:23:37.

would be free-trade throughout the world which is proving hard to

:23:38.:23:42.

achieve. Secondly, if we can get a lot of countries engaged in a

:23:43.:23:45.

free-trade negotiation, that is pretty good if possible. But it is

:23:46.:23:52.

more difficult. But we do bilateral trade agreements. We have one with

:23:53.:23:57.

China, Japan, the United States, Singapore, and the list goes on, and

:23:58.:24:02.

they have been hugely beneficial to Australia. You have been dealing

:24:03.:24:10.

with the EU free deal, what lessons are there? How quickly do you think

:24:11.:24:13.

Britain could do a free-trade deal with the EU if we leave? Well, there

:24:14.:24:20.

is a completely different concept involved in the case of Britain and

:24:21.:24:24.

the EU and that is at the moment there are no restrictions on trade.

:24:25.:24:29.

So you and the EU would be talking about whether you will direct

:24:30.:24:34.

barriers to trade. We are outsiders and we do not get too much involved

:24:35.:24:39.

in this debate except to say we do not want to see the global trade

:24:40.:24:45.

system disrupted by the direction of tariff barriers between the United

:24:46.:24:49.

Kingdom, the fifth biggest economy in the world, and the European

:24:50.:24:55.

Union. Our expectation is not just the British but the Europeans will

:24:56.:24:59.

try to make the transition to Brexit as smooth as possible particularly

:25:00.:25:04.

commercially. Say yes or no if you can. If Britain and Australia make a

:25:05.:25:09.

free-trade agreement, would that include free movement of the

:25:10.:25:13.

Australian and the British people? We will probably stick with our

:25:14.:25:19.

present non-discriminatory system. Australia does not discriminate

:25:20.:25:23.

against any country. The European Union's free movement means you

:25:24.:25:28.

discriminate against non-Europeans. Probably not.

:25:29.:25:32.

It could lead to a ban on diesel cars, prevent the building

:25:33.:25:35.

of a third runway at Heathrow, and will certainly make it

:25:36.:25:37.

more expensive to drive in our towns and cities.

:25:38.:25:40.

Air pollution has been called the "public health crisis

:25:41.:25:42.

of a generation" - but just how serious is the problem?

:25:43.:25:44.

40,000 early deaths result from air pollution every year in the UK.

:25:45.:25:58.

Almost 10,000 Londoners each year die prematurely.

:25:59.:26:04.

It seems at times we can get caught up in alarming assertions

:26:05.:26:11.

about air pollution, that this is a public health

:26:12.:26:13.

emergency, that it is a silent killer, coming from politicians,

:26:14.:26:17.

But how bad is air quality in Britain really?

:26:18.:26:25.

Tony Frew is a professor in respiratory medicine and works

:26:26.:26:29.

at Brighton's Royal Sussex County Hospital.

:26:30.:26:31.

He has been looking into the recent claims

:26:32.:26:33.

It's a problem and it affects people's health.

:26:34.:26:39.

But when people start talking about the numbers

:26:40.:26:41.

of deaths here, I think they are misusing the statistics.

:26:42.:26:43.

There have been tremendous improvements in air quality

:26:44.:26:49.

There is a lot less pollution than there used to be

:26:50.:26:53.

and none of that is coming through in the public

:26:54.:26:57.

So what does Professor Frew make of the claim that alarming levels

:26:58.:27:01.

of toxicity in the air in the UK causes 40,000 deaths each year?

:27:02.:27:04.

It is not 40,000 people who should have air pollution

:27:05.:27:07.

on their death certificate, or 40,000 people who

:27:08.:27:09.

It's a lot of people who had a little bit of life shortening

:27:10.:27:14.

To examine these figures further we travelled to Cambridge to visit

:27:15.:27:20.

I asked him about the data on which these claims

:27:21.:27:25.

They come from a study on how mortality rates in US cities

:27:26.:27:30.

First of all, it is important to realise that that 40,000 figure

:27:31.:27:37.

29,000, which are due to fine particles, and another 11,000

:27:38.:27:42.

I will just talk about this group for a start.

:27:43.:27:51.

These are what are known as attributable deaths.

:27:52.:27:54.

Known as virtual deaths, they come from a complex statistical model.

:27:55.:27:59.

Quite remarkably it all comes from just one number and this

:28:00.:28:02.

was based on a study of US cities and they found out that

:28:03.:28:06.

by monitoring these cities over decades that the cities which had

:28:07.:28:10.

a higher level of pollution had a higher mortality rate.

:28:11.:28:16.

They estimated that there was a 6% increased risk of dying

:28:17.:28:22.

each year for each small increase in pollution.

:28:23.:28:27.

So this is quite a big figure, but it is important to realise

:28:28.:28:30.

it is only a best estimate and the committee that advises

:28:31.:28:33.

the government says that this figure could be between 1% and 12%.

:28:34.:28:39.

So this 6% figure is used to work out the 29,000

:28:40.:28:42.

Yes, through a rather complex statistical model.

:28:43.:28:48.

And a similar analysis gives rise to the 11,000 attributable deaths

:28:49.:28:53.

How much should we invest in cycling?

:28:54.:29:00.

Should we build a third runway at Heathrow?

:29:01.:29:02.

We need reliable statistics to answer those questions,

:29:03.:29:06.

but can we trust the way data is being used by campaigners?

:29:07.:29:10.

I think there are people who have such a passion for the environment

:29:11.:29:15.

and for air pollution that they don't really

:29:16.:29:17.

see it as a problem if they are deceiving the public.

:29:18.:29:23.

Greenpeace have been running a campaign claiming that breathing

:29:24.:29:26.

London's air is the equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day.

:29:27.:29:28.

If you smoke 15 cigarettes a day through your adult life,

:29:29.:29:34.

that will definitely take ten years off your life expectancy.

:29:35.:29:36.

If you are poor and you are in social class five,

:29:37.:29:39.

compared to social class one, that would take seven

:29:40.:29:41.

If you are poor and you smoke, that will take 17 years off your life.

:29:42.:29:46.

Now, we are talking about possibly, if we could get rid of all

:29:47.:29:49.

of the cars in London and all of the road transport,

:29:50.:29:52.

we could make a difference of two micrograms per metre squared in air

:29:53.:29:55.

pollution which might save you 30 days of your life.

:29:56.:30:00.

There is no doubt that air pollution is bad for you,

:30:01.:30:03.

but if we exaggerate the scale of the problem and the impact

:30:04.:30:06.

on our health, are we at risk of undermining the case for making

:30:07.:30:09.

And we are joined now by the Executive Director

:30:10.:30:20.

You have called pollution and national crisis and a health

:30:21.:30:38.

emergency. Around the UK are levels increasing or falling? They are

:30:39.:30:42.

remaining fairly static in London. Nationally? If you look at the

:30:43.:30:52.

studies on where air pollution is measured, in 42 cities around the

:30:53.:30:58.

UK, 38 cities were found to be breaking the legal limit on air

:30:59.:31:02.

pollution so basically all of the cities were breaking the limit so if

:31:03.:31:07.

you think eight out of ten people live in cities, obviously, this is

:31:08.:31:10.

impacting a lot of people around the UK. We have looked at in missions of

:31:11.:31:14.

solvent dioxide, they have fallen and since 1970, nitrogen dioxide is

:31:15.:31:24.

down 69%. Let me show you a chart. There are the nitrogen oxides which

:31:25.:31:31.

we have all been worried about. That chart shows a substantial fall from

:31:32.:31:36.

the 1970s, and then a really steep fall from the 1980s. That is

:31:37.:31:40.

something which is getting better. You have to look at it in the round.

:31:41.:31:47.

If you look at particulates, and if you look at today's understanding of

:31:48.:31:55.

the health impact. Let's look at particulates. We have been really

:31:56.:32:04.

worried about what they have been doing to our abilities to breathe

:32:05.:32:09.

good air, again, you see substantial improvement. Indeed, we are not far

:32:10.:32:14.

from the Gothenberg level which is a very high standard. What you see is

:32:15.:32:22.

it is pretty flat. I see it coming down quite substantially. Over the

:32:23.:32:28.

last decade it is pretty flat. If you look at the World Health

:32:29.:32:32.

Organisation guidelines, actually, these are at serious levels and they

:32:33.:32:36.

need to come down. We know the impact, particularly on children, if

:32:37.:32:40.

you look at what is happening to children and children's lungs, if

:32:41.:32:44.

you look at the impact of asthma and other impacts on children in cities

:32:45.:32:49.

and in schools next to main roads where pollution levels are very

:32:50.:32:52.

high, the impact of very serious. You have many doctors, professors

:32:53.:32:57.

and many studies by London University showing this to be true.

:32:58.:33:03.

The thing is, we do not want pollution. If we can get rid of

:33:04.:33:07.

pollution, let's do it. And also we also have to get rid of CO2 which is

:33:08.:33:12.

causing climate change. We are talking air pollution at the moment.

:33:13.:33:16.

The point is there is not still more to do, it is clear there is and

:33:17.:33:20.

there is no question about that, my question is you seem to deny that we

:33:21.:33:25.

have made any kind of progress and that you also say that air pollution

:33:26.:33:30.

causes 40,000 deaths a year in the UK, that is not true. The figure is

:33:31.:33:37.

40,000 premature deaths is what has been talked about by medical staff.

:33:38.:33:47.

Your website said courses. It causes premature deaths. What we are

:33:48.:33:51.

talking about here is can we solve the problem of air pollution? If air

:33:52.:33:56.

pollution is mainly being caused by diesel vehicles then we need to

:33:57.:34:01.

phase out diesel vehicles. If there are alternatives and clean Turner

:34:02.:34:04.

tips which will give better quality of air, better quality of life and

:34:05.:34:08.

clean up our cities, then why don't we take the chance to do it? You had

:34:09.:34:12.

the Australian High Commissioner on this programme earlier. He said to

:34:13.:34:20.

me earlier, why is your government supporting diesel? That is the most

:34:21.:34:25.

polluting form of transport. That may well be right but I am looking

:34:26.:34:31.

at Greenpeace's claims. You claim it causes 40,000 deaths, it is a figure

:34:32.:34:37.

which regularly appears. Let me quote the committee on the medical

:34:38.:34:42.

effects of air pollutants, it says this calculation, 40,000 which is

:34:43.:34:52.

everywhere in Greenpeace literature, is not an estimate of the number of

:34:53.:34:55.

people whose untimely death is caused entirely by air pollution,

:34:56.:34:59.

but a way of representing the effect across the whole population of air

:35:00.:35:04.

pollution when considered as a contributory factor to many more

:35:05.:35:10.

individual deaths. It is 40,000 premature deaths. It could be

:35:11.:35:19.

premature by a couple of days. It could me by a year. -- it could be

:35:20.:35:23.

by a year. It could also be giving children asthma and breathing

:35:24.:35:24.

difficulties. We are talking about deaths. It could also cause stroke

:35:25.:35:34.

and heart diseases. Medical experts say we need to deal with this. Do

:35:35.:35:42.

you believe air pollution causes 40,000 deaths a year. I have defined

:35:43.:35:50.

that. You accept it does not? It leads to 40,000 premature deaths.

:35:51.:36:00.

But 40,000 people are not killed. You say air pollution causes 40,000

:36:01.:36:05.

deaths each year on your website. I have just explained what I mean by

:36:06.:36:09.

that in terms of premature deaths. The question is, are we going to do

:36:10.:36:14.

something about that? Air pollution is a serious problem. It is mainly

:36:15.:36:18.

caused by diesel. If we phased diesel out it will solve the problem

:36:19.:36:23.

of air pollution and deal with the wider problem of climate change. I

:36:24.:36:27.

am not talking about climate change this morning. Let's link to another

:36:28.:36:35.

claim... Do you want to live in a clean city? Do you want to breathe

:36:36.:36:41.

clean air? Yes, don't generalise. Let's stick to your claims. You have

:36:42.:36:46.

also said living in London on your life is equivalent to smoking 50

:36:47.:36:50.

cigarettes a day. That is not true either. What I would say is if you

:36:51.:36:57.

look at passive smoking, it is the equivalent of I don't know what the

:36:58.:37:00.

actual figure is, I can't remember offhand, but it is the equivalent

:37:01.:37:03.

effect of about ten cigarettes being smoked passively. The question is in

:37:04.:37:10.

terms of, you are just throwing me out all of these things... I am

:37:11.:37:15.

throwing things that Greenpeace have claimed. Greenpeace have claimed

:37:16.:37:19.

that living in London is equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day and

:37:20.:37:24.

that takes ten years off your life. Professor Froome made it clear to us

:37:25.:37:27.

that living in London your whole life with levels of pollution does

:37:28.:37:31.

take time off your life but it takes nine months of your life. Nine

:37:32.:37:36.

months is still too much, I understand that, but it is not ten

:37:37.:37:41.

years and that is what you claim. I would suggest you realise that is a

:37:42.:37:44.

piece of propaganda because you claim on the website, you have taken

:37:45.:37:49.

it down. I agree it has been corrected and I agree with what the

:37:50.:37:52.

professor said that maybe it takes up to a year off your life, but the

:37:53.:37:58.

thing is, there are much more wider issues as well, in terms of the

:37:59.:38:02.

impact on air pollution, and in terms of the impact on young

:38:03.:38:08.

children. We can argue about the facts... But these are your claims,

:38:09.:38:12.

this is why I am hitting it to you. It does not get away from the

:38:13.:38:17.

underlying issue that air pollution is a serious problem. We are not

:38:18.:38:22.

arguing for a moment that it is not. Do you think the way you exaggerate

:38:23.:38:26.

things, put false claims, in the end, for of course we all agree

:38:27.:38:31.

with, getting the best air we can, you undermine your credibility? I

:38:32.:38:37.

absolutely do not support false claims and if mistakes have been

:38:38.:38:40.

made then mistakes have been made and they will be corrected. I think

:38:41.:38:46.

the key issue is how we are going to deal with air pollution. Clearly,

:38:47.:38:50.

diesel is the biggest problem and we need to work out a way how we can

:38:51.:38:56.

get away from diesel as quickly and fast as possible. Comeback and see

:38:57.:38:59.

us in the New Year and we will discuss diesel. Thank you.

:39:00.:39:01.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:39:02.:39:04.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:39:05.:39:15.

Hello and welcome to the programme, where we'll be taking a look back

:39:16.:39:18.

at the most momentous political year for decades.

:39:19.:39:21.

My panel will be here to talk about that and tell me what's

:39:22.:39:24.

But first, the First Minister has been defending his decision

:39:25.:39:30.

to abandon a target of getting rid of child poverty in Wales by 2020.

:39:31.:39:34.

The UK Government aren't in the same position as us and we don't have

:39:35.:39:40.

all the levers to make the kind of impression that we would want

:39:41.:39:44.

in the absence of the UK Government being in the same place.

:39:45.:39:47.

That said, the percentage of households living in poverty

:39:48.:39:49.

in Wales has come down and we are looking to improve

:39:50.:39:52.

what we do by reviewing schemes such as Communities First to see how

:39:53.:39:56.

But all of what you have just said was true in 2011 when you reaffirmed

:39:57.:40:01.

this target of eradicating it by 2020, so what has changed

:40:02.:40:05.

We had hoped that we would be having in London a government

:40:06.:40:11.

that shared our vision of eradicating child poverty.

:40:12.:40:14.

Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case.

:40:15.:40:17.

It doesn't mean we do nothing and say, sorry,

:40:18.:40:19.

We are determined to use the tools that we have got in order to make

:40:20.:40:25.

sure that poverty continues to come down.

:40:26.:40:27.

But you said back then, for example, it's even more important now,

:40:28.:40:30.

with the economic crisis and the cuts to welfare that

:40:31.:40:33.

you tackle the issue of child poverty and here you are now saying,

:40:34.:40:37.

we are just going to put our hands up.

:40:38.:40:39.

From our perspective, what we can never do is say

:40:40.:40:42.

all the levers are in London and there's nothing we can do.

:40:43.:40:45.

It's true to say that major levers such as the taxation system

:40:46.:40:48.

It doesn't mean we don't do anything.

:40:49.:40:51.

It's why we are looking at how we can better

:40:52.:40:54.

deliver our anti-poverty programmes through examining the schemes

:40:55.:40:57.

we have had in place for some years to make them more effective.

:40:58.:41:00.

No-one would expect me to say, there's nothing we can do.

:41:01.:41:03.

We are determined to do as much as we can to alleviate poverty.

:41:04.:41:07.

We have tended to look at communities and tight-knit

:41:08.:41:13.

I think we have to be smarter and understand that there are people

:41:14.:41:19.

and communities outside areas that are traditionally seen

:41:20.:41:21.

as areas of deprivation and help them as well.

:41:22.:41:23.

But that has been the case for decades.

:41:24.:41:25.

What will change as a result of what we saw last week?

:41:26.:41:30.

What will change in your, the way you are going to go

:41:31.:41:33.

There's a consultation ongoing in terms of Communities First

:41:34.:41:38.

and we want to hear what people say to draw on the best practice we have

:41:39.:41:42.

learned through Communities First in order to develop a targeted

:41:43.:41:45.

You have got to listen to people on the ground and the experience

:41:46.:41:50.

they have had before you come to your own conclusions.

:41:51.:41:53.

Going back around a decade to 2003, in Wales, the proportion of children

:41:54.:41:57.

in poverty was proportionately less than in England.

:41:58.:42:00.

Fast forward 13 years and we are further behind.

:42:01.:42:03.

Does that mean in the last decade or so your policies have been

:42:04.:42:06.

If you look at the economics of it, unemployment in Wales

:42:07.:42:11.

is lower than England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

:42:12.:42:13.

What we don't know is, we don't control the benefits system.

:42:14.:42:24.

We know that people have been hit hard by changes in the benefit

:42:25.:42:27.

system and that has had an effect on child poverty.

:42:28.:42:30.

There are some areas where we would prefer to have had

:42:31.:42:32.

a different UK Government with a different view

:42:33.:42:34.

But it doesn't mean we say, there's nothing we can do.

:42:35.:42:40.

We are determined to be as effective as we can.

:42:41.:42:42.

During the course of the week, we have been hearing a lot

:42:43.:42:45.

about Brexit and the effect that would have on immigration.

:42:46.:42:49.

You said in First Minister's Questions to Leanne Wood that

:42:50.:42:51.

you thought you were closer to her than you are to

:42:52.:42:54.

She says immigration in Wales from the EU isn't a problem.

:42:55.:42:58.

I think we have to listen to what people are saying to us.

:42:59.:43:03.

Simply shouting louder about immigration is not going to help.

:43:04.:43:06.

The reality is that we have very few people from the EU living in Wales

:43:07.:43:09.

but the perception people have is different

:43:10.:43:11.

For me, it's a question of getting to a point where we have a sensible

:43:12.:43:16.

The current system, to me, is not supported by a number

:43:17.:43:21.

of people in Wales so what do we do instead?

:43:22.:43:23.

One of the suggestions I have said is freedom of movement to a job.

:43:24.:43:27.

I think Welsh people will find that completely reasonable.

:43:28.:43:29.

No-one has said to me that what we need is fewer doctors

:43:30.:43:32.

and nurses coming into Wales so why not have a system where there

:43:33.:43:35.

is an element of freedom of movement but it's for a purpose.

:43:36.:43:38.

You're just pandering to people who think it is a problem

:43:39.:43:45.

This is not pandering, it's listening.

:43:46.:43:49.

One of the things politicians are accused of is not listening

:43:50.:43:52.

You have to listen to their concerns.

:43:53.:43:56.

But don't you have to lead as well on this?

:43:57.:43:59.

For me, I think it's perfectly reasonable to say,

:44:00.:44:03.

It's a model that's been adopted by other countries, more or less,

:44:04.:44:09.

and I think most people would be content with that.

:44:10.:44:12.

You have said you want to see the Norwegian style model and then

:44:13.:44:15.

said you are going to a job, but the advice the Foreign Office

:44:16.:44:18.

is giving to people moving to Norway is, you can go there for six months

:44:19.:44:22.

and you don't have to have a job, you can search for a job for six

:44:23.:44:26.

months, after that it becomes a bit more tricky.

:44:27.:44:28.

Is that what you mean by the Norwegian model?

:44:29.:44:31.

I haven't used the phrase Norwegian model.

:44:32.:44:33.

I preferred the freedom of movement to work.

:44:34.:44:35.

I'm going to Norway in two weeks' time.

:44:36.:44:37.

I have heard different things about Norway and I want to make sure

:44:38.:44:41.

I hear for myself how things work and the nature of their

:44:42.:44:43.

I met with the Slavic ambassador to the EU and the Swiss ambassador

:44:44.:44:49.

and I want to make sure that as we look for the best deal

:44:50.:44:53.

for Wales, we actually look at the different models in different

:44:54.:44:55.

countries and come up with a Welsh solution.

:44:56.:44:58.

And if the deal Theresa May gets, because it will be Theresa May

:44:59.:45:01.

securing this deal on behalf of the UK,

:45:02.:45:03.

if you don't think that offers the best for Wales,

:45:04.:45:06.

will you be arguing that Wales should have its own system?

:45:07.:45:09.

I think we should have a deal that is good for the whole

:45:10.:45:13.

First of all, there is not going to be a deal in two years.

:45:14.:45:20.

The transitional arrangements are going to be important.

:45:21.:45:23.

For me, what's important is that the UK Government gets

:45:24.:45:25.

to a position where it agrees common ground with the devolved governments

:45:26.:45:28.

Why not get the widest possible buy in before you begin negotiation?

:45:29.:45:35.

It has been an incredible year in politics in Wales,

:45:36.:45:38.

Looking ahead to next year, how hopeful are you in terms of Brexit?

:45:39.:45:43.

I guess you have been, on the spectrum, the more concerned

:45:44.:45:47.

How hopeful are you that in 12 months' time there will be more

:45:48.:45:53.

What worries me, I sit there as the leader who has been

:45:54.:46:00.

there longer than anyone else, is the naivete that I come

:46:01.:46:03.

There are some who are realists but there are some who still say

:46:04.:46:09.

You have to be realistic and understand this is a discussion

:46:10.:46:16.

between not just two parties but more then 30 different parties

:46:17.:46:19.

when you take into account the different parliaments

:46:20.:46:21.

The UK has to learn the art of diplomacy rather

:46:22.:46:25.

than shouting at foreigners, which is the impression you get

:46:26.:46:28.

Everybody wants to see the best deal for all of us in Europe but you do

:46:29.:46:34.

that through talking to people, persuading people, making your case,

:46:35.:46:36.

There are some in the Tory party who seem to think

:46:37.:46:42.

Now, we hear a lot about "three wise men" at this time of year.

:46:43.:46:49.

So we have "three wise women" here instead.

:46:50.:46:54.

They are Professor Laura McAllister from Cardiff University,

:46:55.:46:57.

and the political commentator and businesswoman Shazia Awan.

:46:58.:47:09.

Thanks very much for coming in. We will talk about Brexit in a moment

:47:10.:47:15.

but the first half of that interview was getting rid of the Child poverty

:47:16.:47:20.

target. As such a major part of what they were trying to do for so long

:47:21.:47:24.

in the early years of devolution, how big a deal is it that they have

:47:25.:47:29.

dropped it? I understand where the First Minister is coming from.

:47:30.:47:32.

Targets are important but the kind of deadline that was being put in

:47:33.:47:37.

place for that one was always unrealistic, bearing in mind the

:47:38.:47:40.

economic state of Wales. Anything that is going to tackle something as

:47:41.:47:44.

systemic and problematic as child poverty has got to be done in

:47:45.:47:48.

partnership and has got to be done using levers that the Welsh

:47:49.:47:53.

government doesn't own itself. But is it worth asking, they would have

:47:54.:47:58.

known that in 2011 when they reaffirmed their commitment to the

:47:59.:48:01.

target. Should they have dropped it back then? I think they should have

:48:02.:48:07.

looked updates, certainly, but one of the refreshing things that came

:48:08.:48:11.

out of that interview with the First Minister is there seems to be a real

:48:12.:48:14.

drive towards focus now. This is something we have got horribly wrong

:48:15.:48:18.

in the first 17 years of devolution. We have tried to do too much rather

:48:19.:48:22.

than dealing with the messy problems of poverty and so on. This is a

:48:23.:48:28.

unique opportunity. And in a small country like Wales, if we can't

:48:29.:48:34.

focus, nobody can. We were hearing their not the best example of how

:48:35.:48:37.

devolved powers can be used to get rid of child poverty, but what do

:48:38.:48:43.

you think needs to change? I think a lot of things need to change and

:48:44.:48:46.

whilst it is good that child poverty has come down in Wales, when I look

:48:47.:48:54.

at my region, where there are 28% of families, and consequently children,

:48:55.:48:59.

living in child poverty, obviously some policies have to change. With

:49:00.:49:07.

child poverty comes inequality. These children are suffering

:49:08.:49:10.

educationally, they are suffering with they can't afford to go out

:49:11.:49:14.

recreationally. We have got to look at all these things to try and give

:49:15.:49:20.

them an equal chance in life because these children are the people of our

:49:21.:49:24.

future. If we don't look after them now, we are not going to be. What

:49:25.:49:33.

needs to change? I think a lot needs to change in what the Welsh

:49:34.:49:40.

government is doing. Listening to the First Minister's interview,

:49:41.:49:42.

there seems to be a clear disconnect between a blue Westminster and a red

:49:43.:49:47.

Assembly, but he can't keep blaming that for Welsh Labour's own

:49:48.:49:53.

failings. Across Wales we have got 200,000 children living in poverty.

:49:54.:49:58.

60% of those parents are working and Labour always claimed to be the

:49:59.:50:01.

party of the working people but we have seen the rise of Ukip across

:50:02.:50:06.

Wales, whether we like it or not. We have to engage with our Ukip

:50:07.:50:10.

Assembly Members and that is a failing of Welsh Labour. 17 out of

:50:11.:50:14.

22 local authorities voted leave under a Labour watch.

:50:15.:50:16.

Now, there have been so many political comings and goings this

:50:17.:50:19.

year that it's been difficult at times to keep track.

:50:20.:50:21.

Time now then for Cemlyn Davies' cheeky look back at the main events,

:50:22.:50:25.

which also has a few bits you may have forgotten.

:50:26.:50:33.

Time to dust off the year's top political stories and put them

:50:34.:50:39.

on display once more as we reflect on the year that was.

:50:40.:50:42.

We have had a new Welsh Secretary and we nearly had a new

:50:43.:50:48.

And then of course there was breakfast...Brexit.

:50:49.:50:59.

It was Britain's EU future that brought Carwyn Jones

:51:00.:51:03.

and Nigel Farage together for a heated debate on a chilly

:51:04.:51:05.

A sign of things to come over the next five months.

:51:06.:51:12.

I want you to grab this historic opportunity to take back

:51:13.:51:15.

Wales is at home in Europe and Europe is at home in Wales.

:51:16.:51:22.

A few weeks later, Alun Cairns was appointed Secretary of State

:51:23.:51:25.

for Wales, replacing the new Work and Pensions Secretary

:51:26.:51:29.

Meanwhile, in the Senedd, AMs were getting ready to head off

:51:30.:51:35.

There was just one piece of legislation left to rubber-stamp.

:51:36.:51:40.

This would be a formality, wouldn't it?

:51:41.:51:45.

I thought at the time they were a rather cheap date.

:51:46.:51:51.

In fact, Leighton Andrews must have regretted his remark almost

:51:52.:51:58.

immediately because it led to those Plaid Cymru AMs who had

:51:59.:52:03.

been prepared to back the Public Health Bill and a ban

:52:04.:52:06.

on using e-cigarettes in some public places to withdraw their support.

:52:07.:52:11.

But no sooner had they left that the AMs were back,

:52:12.:52:17.

recalled to a makeshift chamber to discuss Tata Steel's intention

:52:18.:52:22.

The election campaign brought with it big names.

:52:23.:52:31.

But this was the lasting image of the election as Plaid leader

:52:32.:52:46.

Leanne Wood beat Labour's Leighton Andrews in Rhondda.

:52:47.:52:50.

That was the only seat Labour lost, leaving the party with 29 AMs.

:52:51.:52:55.

Plaid Cymru came second, the Conservatives third,

:52:56.:52:58.

and Ukip won its first seat here in the Assembly.

:52:59.:53:02.

as the Liberal Democrats lost four of their five Assembly Members.

:53:03.:53:08.

And so to the simple, straightforward task of reappointing

:53:09.:53:12.

Yes, a dramatic tied vote forced Carwyn Jones to strike

:53:13.:53:25.

When he was finally reinstated, he invited the only remaining

:53:26.:53:31.

Lib Dem, Kirsty Williams, to join his cabinet.

:53:32.:53:35.

Ukip group leader Neil Hamilton wasn't impressed.

:53:36.:53:39.

I'm afraid that these two ladies have just made themselves political

:53:40.:53:43.

But a month later, Mr Hamilton was much happier, as Christmas came

:53:44.:53:50.

The UK, including Wales, had voted to leave the EU,

:53:51.:53:56.

but that result provided plenty of food for thought.

:53:57.:54:00.

Conference, mark my words, we will make breakfast...Brexit a success.

:54:01.:54:15.

Christmas is a time for families to come together,

:54:16.:54:19.

It's also when family fallouts are most keenly felt

:54:20.:54:24.

and we have had our fair share of those this year.

:54:25.:54:27.

Labour's problems were laid bare over the summer

:54:28.:54:30.

as Pontypridd MP Owen Smith took on Jeremy Corbyn and lost.

:54:31.:54:35.

Elsewhere, Ukip's Nathan Gill became an independent AM amid calls

:54:36.:54:39.

for him to give up one of his two elected positions.

:54:40.:54:43.

And then Dafydd Elis-Thomas announced he would also sit

:54:44.:54:49.

As the year drew to a close, Brexit continued to dominate.

:54:50.:54:57.

The Welsh Government went to court to make the case for MPs

:54:58.:55:01.

A judgment on that issue is expected early in the New Year.

:55:02.:55:07.

Who knows what else 2017 has in store?

:55:08.:55:17.

I guess, looking back at that, you see how much happened in the

:55:18.:55:29.

Assembly, but is everything through the prism of Brexit? I think Brexit,

:55:30.:55:35.

we are going to be talking about it for a long time and we can't hide

:55:36.:55:40.

away from the way Wales voted. 17 out of our 22 local authorities

:55:41.:55:44.

voted to leave. In Brexit negotiations, that doesn't mean we

:55:45.:55:48.

will have the same say as Scotland. We only have to look at the First

:55:49.:55:53.

Minister's disastrous all white Brexit committee that he put

:55:54.:55:57.

together this year to show that the Welsh government don't really have a

:55:58.:56:01.

handle on equality and diversity issues, particularly when, as a

:56:02.:56:05.

direct result of the EU referendum vote, we saw a huge spike in hate

:56:06.:56:09.

crimes against our minority communities in Wales. But why do you

:56:10.:56:17.

think that happened? Do you think there is a direct causal link

:56:18.:56:22.

between those two things? We have seen the rise of hate crime and I

:56:23.:56:27.

would say that it is a direct result from the vote to leave because a lot

:56:28.:56:32.

of the language used in that was very irresponsible. But equally you

:56:33.:56:36.

can look back to the irresponsible language that was used in the London

:56:37.:56:40.

election, where they were effectively not fighting Sadiq Khan

:56:41.:56:44.

for being Labour, they were fighting him for having the surname can't

:56:45.:56:48.

because you can't justifiably call a human rights lawyer radical and

:56:49.:56:53.

extreme. We saw that language at the start of the year and as someone who

:56:54.:56:58.

was heavily involved in the Remain campaign, I saw the tide turned. We

:56:59.:57:04.

saw the various derogatory words being used before the vote. And Ukip

:57:05.:57:10.

did put out a lot of irresponsible posters and propaganda. Now what we

:57:11.:57:14.

need is politicians to be held to account and acknowledge how they are

:57:15.:57:16.

going to help those communities across Wales. Caroline, as a

:57:17.:57:23.

prominent Leave campaigner, do you think that needs to be addressed? Of

:57:24.:57:28.

course it needs to be addressed. Bullying and racism in any shape or

:57:29.:57:33.

form, I deplore bullying. I worked in the prison, I had my own

:57:34.:57:37.

department in the prison service, and I was in charge of

:57:38.:57:41.

anti-bullying, writing policies. I deplore bullying in any shape or

:57:42.:57:46.

form. What I would say to people is, there is going to be a distinction

:57:47.:57:52.

between what we must not do, the British people, the people of Wales

:57:53.:57:56.

in my case, have been very generous towards people coming into the

:57:57.:58:00.

country. We can't take that away from people. What I say is, when

:58:01.:58:06.

people voice their concerns in a logical way, we mustn't interpret

:58:07.:58:13.

that as racism. We haven't got much time. Will that change and how do

:58:14.:58:18.

you think that will change? Immigration post Brexit? We have to

:58:19.:58:26.

look at an education policy, and immigration policy, sorry, that

:58:27.:58:32.

works for everyone. But how? I think it has to be controlled and we have

:58:33.:58:36.

to know who is coming into the country and how many people are

:58:37.:58:40.

coming in. We have to look at our small country and we have two,

:58:41.:58:46.

obviously, we have to take our responsibility as well with people

:58:47.:58:52.

coming in, refugees. How much do you think 2016 has changed politics, not

:58:53.:58:57.

just in the UK but across the world? Fundamentally. We are missing big

:58:58.:59:01.

points here, which is why people voted in the way they did. Why did

:59:02.:59:06.

they vote for Caroline's party in the Assembly election in significant

:59:07.:59:11.

numbers and why did they vote Brexit in significant numbers? This is a

:59:12.:59:14.

fundamental lack of connect and belief in our political classes.

:59:15.:59:19.

What I think has changed fundamentally during 2016, in Wales,

:59:20.:59:24.

the UK and globally, is that people are prepared to lash out at the

:59:25.:59:27.

political classes and this will mean a fundamental change in politics,

:59:28.:59:37.

whether we like it or not. I think it will mean a complete realignment

:59:38.:59:39.

of parties, how they are run and how they operate. Do you think that

:59:40.:59:42.

backlash is party political? They would have been lashing out against

:59:43.:59:44.

the Conservatives in Westminster but Labour here. I said before the

:59:45.:59:49.

election, it didn't matter what Ukip did in the campaign, how many rows

:59:50.:59:54.

they had, disagreements, how many word was thrown at them, they were

:59:55.:59:57.

going to win seats because people wanted a different party that they

:59:58.:00:00.

felt would represent them differently. Once there is a mood

:00:01.:00:06.

for change, as we sensed in the US election, the candidate that best

:00:07.:00:08.

represent that concept of change are the ones that will pick up vote.

:00:09.:00:15.

Looking at what has happened in the Assembly and Ukip having seven

:00:16.:00:18.

Assembly Members. Six now because there is one independent. When you

:00:19.:00:25.

look back at Neil Hamilton referring to political concubines, it has

:00:26.:00:28.

shaken things up, but are you happy with all the stuff you have heard?

:00:29.:00:37.

Obviously, people doing from home, they don't hear the remarks that are

:00:38.:00:44.

made to everyone. To all of us. But that was a very high-profile thing.

:00:45.:00:49.

The Presiding Officer is dealing robustly with anything which is

:00:50.:00:53.

unacceptable. Elin Jones has set up... Do you think it was

:00:54.:01:00.

unacceptable? Elin Jones has set out his stall and she is dealing with

:01:01.:01:03.

anything she finds unacceptable and we all have a code of conduct and a

:01:04.:01:09.

responsibility to each other. We need robust debate but what is

:01:10.:01:12.

acceptable and unacceptable is going to be decided by the Presiding

:01:13.:01:19.

Officer. I have asked you all for a prediction for 2017. What do you

:01:20.:01:25.

think will be the main event? Anything that could have happened

:01:26.:01:29.

has happened in 2016. I think we need to, I would like to see a

:01:30.:01:35.

resurgence of the Lib Dems. Time is really tight. Caroline? Obviously, I

:01:36.:01:42.

want to see Brexit happen and I want to see more people coming and

:01:43.:01:45.

investing in our country and bringing jobs and prosperity. I

:01:46.:01:50.

think divisions in parties across the piece. Not a highlight, a

:01:51.:01:53.

prediction. That's all we have time

:01:54.:01:55.

for today and this year. For now, Nadolig Llawen,

:01:56.:01:57.

Merry Christmas, Will Article 50 be triggered

:01:58.:02:04.

by the end of March, will President Trump start work

:02:05.:02:21.

on his wall and will Front National's Marine Le Pen

:02:22.:02:24.

provide the next electoral shock? 2016, the Brexit for Britain and

:02:25.:02:49.

Trump for the rest of the world. Let's look back and see what one of

:02:50.:02:51.

you said about Brexit. If Mr Cameron loses the referendum

:02:52.:02:55.

and it is this year, will he be Prime Minister at the end

:02:56.:02:58.

of the year? I don't think he will lose

:02:59.:03:00.

the referendum, so I'm feeling It was clear if he did lose the

:03:01.:03:14.

referendum he would be out. I would like to say in retrospect I saw that

:03:15.:03:18.

coming on a long and I was just saying it to make good television!

:03:19.:03:24.

It is Christmas so I will be benign towards my panel! It is possible,

:03:25.:03:30.

Iain, that not much happens to Brexit in 2017, because we have a

:03:31.:03:34.

host of elections coming up in Europe, the French won in the spring

:03:35.:03:38.

and the German one in the autumn will be the most important. And

:03:39.:03:43.

until we know who the next French president is and what condition Mrs

:03:44.:03:46.

Merkel will be in, not much will happen? I think that is the

:03:47.:03:52.

likeliest outcome. Short of some constitutional crisis involving the

:03:53.:03:56.

Lords relating to Brexit, it is pretty clear it is difficult to

:03:57.:04:03.

properly begin the negotiations until it becomes clear who Britain

:04:04.:04:07.

is negotiating with. It will come down to the result of the German

:04:08.:04:12.

election. Germany is the biggest contributor and if they keep power

:04:13.:04:16.

in what is left of the European Union, will drive the negotiation

:04:17.:04:20.

and we will have to see if it will be Merkel. So this vacuum that has

:04:21.:04:27.

been seen and has been filled by people less than friendly to the

:04:28.:04:31.

government, even when we know Article 50 has been triggered and

:04:32.:04:34.

even if there is some sort of white paper to give us a better idea of

:04:35.:04:39.

the broad strategic outlines of what they mean by Brexit, the phoney war

:04:40.:04:46.

could continue? Iain is right. 2017 is going to be a remarkably dull

:04:47.:04:52.

year for Brexit as opposed to 2016. We will have the article and a plan.

:04:53.:04:58.

The plan will say I would like the moon on a stick please. The EU will

:04:59.:05:03.

say you can have a tiny bit of moon and a tiny bit of stick and there

:05:04.:05:09.

will be an impasse. That will go on until one minute to midnight 2018

:05:10.:05:13.

which is when the EU will act. There is one thing in the Foreign Office

:05:14.:05:19.

which is more important, as David Davis Department told me, they know

:05:20.:05:24.

there is nothing they can do until the French and Germans have their

:05:25.:05:27.

elections and they know the lie of the land, but the people who will be

:05:28.:05:32.

more helpful to us are in Eastern Europe and in Scandinavia, the

:05:33.:05:36.

Nordic countries. We can do quite a lot of schmoozing to try and get

:05:37.:05:41.

them broadly on side this year? It is very difficult because one of the

:05:42.:05:45.

things they care most about in Eastern Europe is the ability for

:05:46.:05:49.

Eastern European stew come and work in the UK. That is key to the

:05:50.:05:54.

economic prospects. But what they care most about is that those

:05:55.:05:58.

already here should not be under any pressure to leave. There is no

:05:59.:06:04.

guarantee of that. That is what Mrs May wants. There are a lot of things

:06:05.:06:09.

Mrs May wants and the story of 2017 will be about what she gets. How

:06:10.:06:13.

much have we got to give people? It is not what we want, but what we are

:06:14.:06:19.

willing to give. The interesting thing is you can divide this out

:06:20.:06:24.

into two. There is a question of the European Union and our relationship

:06:25.:06:28.

with it but there is also the trick the polls did to London -- there is

:06:29.:06:37.

also the polls. There is question beyond the Western European

:06:38.:06:41.

security, that is about Nato and intelligence and security, and the

:06:42.:06:47.

rising Russian threat. That does not mean the Polish people will persuade

:06:48.:06:50.

everyone else to give us a lovely deal on the EU, but the dynamic is

:06:51.:06:55.

bigger than just a chat about Brexit. You cannot threaten a

:06:56.:06:59.

punishment beating for us if we are putting our soldiers on the line on

:07:00.:07:03.

the eastern borders of Europe. I think that's where Donald Trump

:07:04.:07:07.

changes the calculation because his attitude towards Russia is very

:07:08.:07:13.

different to Barack Obama's. It is indeed. Mentioning Russia, Brexit

:07:14.:07:21.

was a global story but nothing can match and American election and even

:07:22.:07:24.

one which gives Donald Trump as well. Let's have a look at what this

:07:25.:07:28.

panel was saying about Donald Trump. Will Donald Trump win the Republican

:07:29.:07:31.

nomination next year. So, not only did you think he would

:07:32.:07:44.

not be president, you did not think he would win the Republican

:07:45.:07:48.

nomination. We were not alone in that. And they're right put forward

:07:49.:07:53.

a motion to abolish punditry here now because clearly we are

:07:54.:07:58.

pointless! There is enough unemployment in the world already!

:07:59.:08:03.

We are moving into huge and charted territory with Donald Trump as

:08:04.:08:08.

president. It is incredibly unpredictable. But what has not been

:08:09.:08:15.

noticed enough is the Keynesian won. Trump is a Keynesian. He wants

:08:16.:08:22.

massive infrastructure spending and massive tax cuts. The big story next

:08:23.:08:27.

year will be the massive reflation of the American economy and indeed

:08:28.:08:33.

the US Federal reserve has already reacted to that by putting up

:08:34.:08:37.

interest rates. That is why he has a big fight with the rest of the

:08:38.:08:43.

Republican Party. He is nominally a Republican but they are not

:08:44.:08:47.

Keynesian. They are when it comes to tax cuts. They are when it hits the

:08:48.:08:52.

rich to benefit the poor. The big thing is whether the infrastructure

:08:53.:08:56.

projects land him in crony trouble. The transparency around who gets

:08:57.:09:01.

those will be extremely difficult. Most of the infrastructure spending

:09:02.:09:06.

he thinks can be done by the private sector and not the federal

:09:07.:09:11.

government. His tax cuts overlap the Republican house tax cuts speaker

:09:12.:09:16.

Ryan to give not all, but a fair chunk of what he wants. If the

:09:17.:09:21.

American economy is going to reflate next year, interest rates will rise

:09:22.:09:25.

in America, that will strengthen the dollar and it will mean that Europe

:09:26.:09:32.

will be, it will find it more difficult to finance its sovereign

:09:33.:09:36.

debt because you will get more money by investing in American sovereign

:09:37.:09:42.

debt. That is a good point because the dynamics will shift. If that

:09:43.:09:46.

happens, Trump will be pretty popular in the US. To begin with. To

:09:47.:09:53.

begin with. It is energy self-sufficient and if you can pull

:09:54.:09:56.

off the biggest trick in American politics which is somehow to via

:09:57.:10:02.

corporation tax cuts to allow the reassuring of wealth, because it is

:10:03.:10:08.

too expensive for American business to take back into the US and

:10:09.:10:11.

reinvest, if you combine all of those things together, you will end

:10:12.:10:15.

up with a boom on a scale you have not seen. It will be Reagan on

:10:16.:10:23.

steroids? What could possibly go wrong? In the short term for

:10:24.:10:27.

Britain, it is probably not bad news. Our biggest market for exports

:10:28.:10:32.

as a country is the United States. Our biggest market for foreign

:10:33.:10:36.

direct investment is the United States and the same is true vice

:10:37.:10:40.

versa for America in Britain. Given the pound is now competitive and

:10:41.:10:44.

likely the dollar will get stronger, it could well give a boost to the

:10:45.:10:50.

British economy? Could do bit you have to be slightly cautious about

:10:51.:10:54.

the warm language we are getting which is great news out of President

:10:55.:10:59.

Trump's future cabinet on doing a trade deal early, we are net

:11:00.:11:04.

exporters to the US. We benefit far more from trading with US than they

:11:05.:11:07.

do with us. I think we have to come up with something to offer the US

:11:08.:11:13.

for them to jump into bed with us. I think it is called two new aircraft

:11:14.:11:19.

carriers and modernising the fleet. Bring it on. I will raise caution,

:11:20.:11:27.

people in declining industries in some places in America, the rust

:11:28.:11:32.

belt who have faced big profound structural challenges and those are

:11:33.:11:36.

much harder to reverse. They face real problems now because the dollar

:11:37.:11:41.

is so strong. Their ability to export has taken a huge hit out of

:11:42.:11:47.

Ohio, Michigan and Illinois. And the Mexican imports into America is now

:11:48.:11:50.

dirt cheap so that is a major problem. Next year we have elections

:11:51.:11:57.

in Austria, France, the Netherlands, Germany, probably Italy. Which

:11:58.:12:06.

outcome will be the most dramatic for Brexit? If Merkel lost it would

:12:07.:12:11.

be a huge surprise. That is unlikely. And if it was not Filon in

:12:12.:12:21.

France that would be unlikely. The consensus it it will be Francois

:12:22.:12:26.

Filon against Marine Le Pen and it will be uniting around the far right

:12:27.:12:36.

candidate. In 2002, that is what happened. Filon is a Thatcherite.

:12:37.:12:43.

Marine Le Pen's politics -- economics are hard left. Francois

:12:44.:12:50.

Filon is as much a cert to win as Hillary Clinton was this time last

:12:51.:12:55.

year. If he is competing against concerns about rising globalisation

:12:56.:13:04.

and his pitch is Thatcherite, it is a bold, brave strategy in the

:13:05.:13:08.

context so we will see. It will keep us busy next year, Tom? Almost as

:13:09.:13:16.

busy as this year but not quite. This year was a record year. I am up

:13:17.:13:20.

in my hours! That's all for today,

:13:21.:13:23.

thanks to all my guests. The Daily Politics will be back

:13:24.:13:25.

on BBC Two at noon tomorrow. I'll be back here

:13:26.:13:28.

on the 15th January. Remember, if it's Sunday,

:13:29.:13:30.

it's the Sunday Politics. The most a writer

:13:31.:13:33.

can hope from a reader

:13:34.:14:14.

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