12/03/2017 Sunday Politics Wales


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12/03/2017

Andrew Neil and Arwyn Jones with the latest political news, interviews and debate. Andrew discusses the Brexit bill with UKIP's Nigel Farage and Conservative MP Anna Soubry.


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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:34.:00:38.

David Davis tells MPs to leave the Brexit bill untouched,

:00:39.:00:43.

ahead of a week which could see Britain begin the process

:00:44.:00:45.

We'll talk to a Tory rebel and Ukip's Nigel Farage.

:00:46.:00:50.

Phillip Hammond's first budget hit the rocks thanks to a tax rise

:00:51.:00:53.

But how should we tax those who work for themselves?

:00:54.:01:01.

And remember Donald Trump's claim that Barack Obama had ordered

:01:02.:01:04.

We'll talk to the former Tory MP who set the whole story rolling.

:01:05.:01:11.

Later in the programme: Where next for the LibDems?

:01:12.:01:13.

Their leader in Wales tells me they have a bright future.

:01:14.:01:16.

And, with little extra money, what else can be done

:01:17.:01:19.

And joining me for all of that, three self-employed journalists

:01:20.:01:31.

who definitely don't deserve a tax break.

:01:32.:01:35.

It's Steve Richards, Julia Hartley-Brewer

:01:36.:01:36.

They'll be tweeting throughout the programme with all the carefree

:01:37.:01:41.

abandon of Katie Hopkins before a libel trial.

:01:42.:01:48.

BBC lawyers have suddenly got nervous!

:01:49.:01:51.

So first today, the government is gearing up to trigger Article 50,

:01:52.:01:54.

perhaps in the next 48 hours, and start negotiating Britain's

:01:55.:01:56.

Much has been written about the prospect of the Commons

:01:57.:02:00.

getting a "meaningful vote" on the deal Britain negotiates.

:02:01.:02:02.

Brexit Secretary David Davis was on the Andrew Marr programme

:02:03.:02:04.

earlier this morning and he was asked what happens

:02:05.:02:07.

Well, that is what is called the most favoured nation status deal

:02:08.:02:17.

There we go out, as it were, on WTO rules.

:02:18.:02:22.

That is why of course we do the contingency planning, to make

:02:23.:02:25.

The British people decided on June the 23rd last year

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My job, and the job of the government, is to make

:02:33.:02:37.

the terms on which that happens as beneficial as possible.

:02:38.:02:47.

There we have it, clearly, either Parliament votes for the deal when

:02:48.:02:55.

it is done or it out on World Trade Organisation rules. That's what the

:02:56.:02:58.

government means by a meaningful vote.

:02:59.:03:01.

I think we get over obsessed about whether there will be a legal right

:03:02.:03:07.

for Parliament to have a vote. If there is no deal or a bad deal, I

:03:08.:03:11.

think it would be politically impossible for the government to

:03:12.:03:14.

reject Parliament's desire for a vote because the atmosphere of

:03:15.:03:17.

politics will be completely different by then. I take David

:03:18.:03:20.

Davies seriously. Within Whitehall he has acquired a reputation as

:03:21.:03:25.

being the most conscientious and details sadly... And well briefed.

:03:26.:03:29.

Absolutely and well travelled in terms of European capitals of the

:03:30.:03:32.

three Brexit ministers. It is quite telling he said what he did and it

:03:33.:03:36.

is quite telling that within cabinet, two weeks ago he was

:03:37.:03:41.

floating the idea of no deal at all. Being if not the central estimate

:03:42.:03:44.

than a completely plausible eventuality. It is interesting. I

:03:45.:03:48.

would suggest the prospect of no deal is moving up the agenda. It is

:03:49.:03:53.

still less likely than more likely to happen. But it's no longer a kind

:03:54.:03:59.

of long tail way out there in the distance. Planning for no deal is

:04:00.:04:02.

the same as having contents insurance or travel insurance, plan

:04:03.:04:04.

for the worse case scenarios are prepared it happens. Even the worst

:04:05.:04:09.

case scenario, it's not that bad. Think of the Jeep 20, apart from the

:04:10.:04:13.

EU, four members of the G20 economies are successful members of

:04:14.:04:18.

the EU. The rest aren't and don't have trade deals but somehow these

:04:19.:04:21.

countries are prospering. They are growing at a higher rate. You are

:04:22.:04:26.

not frightened? Not remotely. We are obsessed with what we get from the

:04:27.:04:30.

EU and the key thing we get from leaving the EU is not the deal but

:04:31.:04:33.

the other deals we can finally make with other trading partners. They

:04:34.:04:37.

have higher growth than virtually every other EU country apart from

:04:38.:04:40.

Germany. It is sensible as a negotiating position for the

:04:41.:04:45.

government to say if there is no deal, we will accept there is no

:04:46.:04:48.

deal. We're not frightened of no deal. It was clear from what David

:04:49.:04:53.

Davies was saying that there will be a vote in parliament at the end of

:04:54.:04:56.

the process but there won't be a third option to send the government

:04:57.:05:01.

back to try to get a better deal. It is either the deal or we leave

:05:02.:05:06.

without a deal. In reality, that third option will be there. We don't

:05:07.:05:09.

know yet whether there will be a majority for the deal if they get

:05:10.:05:14.

one. What we do know now is that there isn't a majority in the

:05:15.:05:20.

Commons for no deal. Labour MPs are absolutely clear that no deal is

:05:21.:05:24.

worth then a bad deal. I've heard enough Tory MPs say the same thing.

:05:25.:05:28.

But they wouldn't get no deal through. When it comes to this vote,

:05:29.:05:37.

if whatever deal is rejected, there will then be, one way or another,

:05:38.:05:40.

the third option raised of go back again. But who gets to decide what

:05:41.:05:44.

is a bad deal? The British people will have a different idea than the

:05:45.:05:48.

two thirds of the Remain supporting MPs in the Commons. In terms of the

:05:49.:05:55.

vote, the Commons. Surely, if the Commons, which is what matters here,

:05:56.:05:59.

if the Commons were to vote against the deal as negotiated by the

:06:00.:06:05.

government, surely that would trigger a general election? If the

:06:06.:06:09.

government had recommended the deal, surely the government would then, if

:06:10.:06:12.

it still felt strongly about the deal, if the other 27 had said,

:06:13.:06:18.

we're not negotiating, extending it, it would in effect become a second

:06:19.:06:22.

referendum on the deal. In effect it would be a no-confidence vote in the

:06:23.:06:25.

government. You've got to assume that unless something massively

:06:26.:06:29.

changes in the opposition before then, the government would feel

:06:30.:06:32.

fairly confident about a general election on those terms. Unless the

:06:33.:06:37.

deal is hideously bad and obviously basso every vote in the country...

:06:38.:06:41.

The prior minister said if it is that bad she would have rather no

:06:42.:06:45.

deal. So that eventuality arrives. -- the Prime Minister has said. Not

:06:46.:06:50.

a second referendum general election in two years' time. Don't put any

:06:51.:06:55.

holidays for! LAUGHTER -- don't look any.

:06:56.:06:58.

So the Brexit bill looks likely to clear Parliament this week.

:06:59.:07:00.

That depends on the number of Conservative MPs who are prepared

:07:01.:07:04.

to vote against their government on two key issues.

:07:05.:07:06.

Theresa May could be in negotiations with our European

:07:07.:07:10.

partners within days, but there may be some

:07:11.:07:12.

wheeler-dealings she has to do with her own MPs, too.

:07:13.:07:14.

Cast your mind back to the beginning of month.

:07:15.:07:19.

The bill to trigger Article 50 passed comfortably

:07:20.:07:20.

But three Conservatives voted for Labour's amendments to ensure

:07:21.:07:29.

the rights of EU citizens already in the UK.

:07:30.:07:33.

Seven Tory MPs voted to force the government to give Parliament

:07:34.:07:36.

a say on the deal struck with the EU before it's finalised.

:07:37.:07:41.

But remember those numbers, they're important.

:07:42.:07:45.

On the issue of a meaningful vote on a deal, I'm told there might have

:07:46.:07:49.

been more rebels had it not been for this assurance from

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I can confirm that the government will bring forward a motion

:07:52.:07:57.

on the final agreement to be approved by both Houses

:07:58.:07:59.

And we expect, and intend, that this will happen before

:08:00.:08:04.

the European Parliament debates and votes on the final agreement.

:08:05.:08:11.

When the government was criticised for reeling back

:08:12.:08:16.

from when and what it would offer a vote on.

:08:17.:08:20.

The bill then moved into the Lords, where peers passed it

:08:21.:08:22.

And the second, that Parliament be given a meaningful vote on the terms

:08:23.:08:30.

of the deal or indeed a vote in the event of there

:08:31.:08:33.

The so-called Brexit bill will return to Commons

:08:34.:08:37.

Ministers insist that both amendments would weaken

:08:38.:08:41.

the government's negotiating hand and are seeking to overturn them.

:08:42.:08:44.

But, as ever, politics is a numbers game.

:08:45.:08:50.

Theresa May has a working majority of 17.

:08:51.:08:52.

On Brexit, though, it's probably higher.

:08:53.:08:56.

At least six Labour MPs generally vote with

:08:57.:08:58.

Plus, eight DUP MPs, two from the Ulster Unionist party

:08:59.:09:02.

If all Conservatives vote with the government as well,

:09:03.:09:08.

Therefore, 26 Conservative rebels are needed for the government to be

:09:09.:09:14.

So, are there rough waters ahead for Theresa May?

:09:15.:09:21.

What numbers are we looking at, in terms of a potential rebellion?

:09:22.:09:24.

I think we're looking at a large number of people who are interested

:09:25.:09:27.

This building is a really important building.

:09:28.:09:29.

It's symbolic of a huge amount of history.

:09:30.:09:31.

And for it not to be involved in this momentous time would,

:09:32.:09:35.

But he says a clear verbal statement from the government on a meaningful

:09:36.:09:42.

vote on any deal would be enough to get most Tory MPs onside.

:09:43.:09:48.

It was already said about David Jones.

:09:49.:09:50.

It's slightly unravelled a little bit during

:09:51.:09:52.

I think this is an opportunity to really get that clarity

:09:53.:09:57.

through so that we can all vote for Article 50 and get

:09:58.:10:00.

We've have spoken to several Tory MPs who say they are minded to vote

:10:01.:10:04.

One said the situation was sad and depressing.

:10:05.:10:08.

The other said that the whips must be worried because they don't

:10:09.:10:11.

A minister told me Downing Street was looking again at the possibility

:10:12.:10:18.

of offering a vote in the event of no deal being reached.

:10:19.:10:22.

But that its position was unlikely to change.

:10:23.:10:24.

And, anyway, government sources have told the Sunday Politics they're not

:10:25.:10:27.

That those Tory MPs who didn't back either amendment the first time

:10:28.:10:34.

round would look silly if they did, this time.

:10:35.:10:37.

It would have to be a pretty hefty lot of people changing their minds

:10:38.:10:41.

about things that have already been discussed in quite a lot of detail,

:10:42.:10:44.

last time it was in the Commons, for things to be reversed this time.

:10:45.:10:48.

There's no doubt that a number of Tory MPs are very concerned.

:10:49.:10:51.

Labour are pessimistic about the chances of enough Tory

:10:52.:10:53.

rebels backing either of the amendments in the Commons.

:10:54.:10:57.

The important thing, I think, is to focus on the fact

:10:58.:10:59.

that this is the last chance to have a say on this.

:11:00.:11:02.

If they're going to vote with us, Monday is the time to do it.

:11:03.:11:06.

Assuming the bill does pass the Commons unamended,

:11:07.:11:08.

it will go back to the Lord's on Monday night where Labour peers

:11:09.:11:11.

have already indicated they won't block it again.

:11:12.:11:15.

It means that the Brexit bill would become law and Theresa May

:11:16.:11:18.

would be free to trigger Article 50 within days.

:11:19.:11:22.

Her own deadline was the end of this month.

:11:23.:11:24.

But one minister told me there were advantages to doing it early.

:11:25.:11:30.

We're joined now from Nottingham by the Conservative MP Anna Soubry.

:11:31.:11:33.

She's previously voted against the government on the question

:11:34.:11:35.

of whether Parliament should have a final say over the EU deal.

:11:36.:11:42.

Anna Soubry, I think it was clear this morning from David Davies that

:11:43.:11:48.

what he means by meaningful vote is not what you mean by a meaningful

:11:49.:11:51.

vote. He thinks the choice for Parliament would be to either vote

:11:52.:11:56.

for the deal and if Parliament doesn't, we leave on World Trade

:11:57.:12:00.

Organisation rules, on a bare-bones structure. In the end, will he

:12:01.:12:06.

accept that in the Commons tomorrow? No, because my problem and I don't

:12:07.:12:10.

think it is a problem, but my problem, the government's problem is

:12:11.:12:14.

that what I want is then to answer this question. What happens in the

:12:15.:12:18.

event of their not being any deal? David Davies made it very clear that

:12:19.:12:23.

in the event of there being no deal, Parliament would have no say. It

:12:24.:12:27.

means through your elected representatives, the people of this

:12:28.:12:31.

country would have no say on what happens if the government doesn't

:12:32.:12:36.

get a deal. I think the request that Parliament should have a say on

:12:37.:12:38.

Parliamentary sovereignty, is perfectly reasonable. That is what I

:12:39.:12:43.

want David to say. If he says that, I won't be rebelling. If he does...

:12:44.:12:50.

They have refused to say that. Sorry. If he continues to say what

:12:51.:12:54.

he said the BBC this morning, which means that the vote will be either

:12:55.:13:00.

to accept the as negotiated or to leave on WTO rules, will you rebel

:13:01.:13:07.

on that question but no, no, sorry, if there's a deal, Parliament will

:13:08.:13:11.

have a say. So that's fine. And we will see what the deal is and we

:13:12.:13:14.

will look at the options two years down the road. When who knows

:13:15.:13:19.

what'll happen in our economy and world economy. That is one matter

:13:20.:13:22.

which I am content on. The Prime Minister, a woman of her word has

:13:23.:13:26.

said that in the event of a deal, Parliament will vote on any deal. I

:13:27.:13:32.

don't difficulty. To clarify, I will come onto that. These are important

:13:33.:13:36.

matters. I want to clarify, not argue with you. You are content that

:13:37.:13:40.

if there is a deal, we will come under no deal in a second, but if

:13:41.:13:43.

there is a deal, you are content with the choice of being able to

:13:44.:13:50.

vote for that deal or leaving on WTO terms? No, you're speculating as to

:13:51.:13:52.

what might happen in two years' time. What the options might be.

:13:53.:13:59.

Personally I find it inconceivable that the government will come back

:14:00.:14:01.

with a rubbish deal. They will either come back with a good deal,

:14:02.:14:05.

which I won't have a problem with or they will come back with no deal. To

:14:06.:14:09.

speculate about coming back with a deal, there is a variety of options.

:14:10.:14:14.

I understand that that is what the Lord amendments are about. They are

:14:15.:14:17.

about a vote at the end of the process. Do forgive me, the Lords

:14:18.:14:25.

amendment is not the same that I've voted for in Parliament. What we

:14:26.:14:27.

call the Chris Leslie amendment, which was talking about whatever the

:14:28.:14:30.

agreement is, whatever happens at the end of the negotiations,

:14:31.:14:33.

Parliament will have a vote. Parliament will have a say. The

:14:34.:14:36.

Lords amendment is a bit more technical. It is the principle of no

:14:37.:14:42.

deal that is agitating us. Let's clarify on this. They are

:14:43.:14:46.

complicated matters. What do you want the government to say? What do

:14:47.:14:50.

you want David Davis to say tomorrow on what should the Parliamentary

:14:51.:14:55.

process should be if there is no deal? Quite. I want a commitment

:14:56.:14:59.

from him that in the event of no deal, it will come into Parliament

:15:00.:15:03.

and Parliament will determine what happens next. It could be that in

:15:04.:15:10.

the event of no deal, the best thing is for us to jump off the cliff into

:15:11.:15:14.

WTO tariff is. I find it unlikely but that might be the reality. There

:15:15.:15:17.

might be other alternatives. Most importantly, including saying to the

:15:18.:15:22.

government, go back, carry on. The question that everybody has to ask

:15:23.:15:24.

is, why won't the government give My fear is what this is about is

:15:25.:15:35.

asked deliberately, not the Prime Minister, but others deliberately

:15:36.:15:40.

ensuring we have no deal and no deal pretty soon and in that event, we

:15:41.:15:45.

jumped off the cliff onto WTO tariffs and nobody in this country

:15:46.:15:50.

and the people of this country do not have a say. My constituents did

:15:51.:15:56.

not vote for hard Brexit. You do not want the government to

:15:57.:16:00.

have the ability if there is no deal to automatically fall back on the

:16:01.:16:07.

WTO rules? Quite. It is as simple as that. We are now speculating about

:16:08.:16:11.

what will happen in two years. I want to find out what happens

:16:12.:16:17.

tomorrow. What will you do if you don't get that assurance? I will

:16:18.:16:22.

either abstain, or I will vote to keep this amendment within the Bill.

:16:23.:16:26.

I will either vote against my government, which I do not do

:16:27.:16:31.

likely, I have never voted against my government until the Chris Leslie

:16:32.:16:34.

clause when the Bill was going through, or I will abstain, which

:16:35.:16:38.

has pretty much the same effect because it comes into the Commons

:16:39.:16:42.

with both amendments so you have positively to vote to take the map.

:16:43.:16:48.

Can you give us an idea of how many like-minded conservative colleagues

:16:49.:16:54.

there are. I genuinely do not know. You must talk to each other. I do

:16:55.:16:59.

not talk to every member of my party. You know people who are

:17:00.:17:06.

like-minded. I do. I am not doing numbers games. I know you want that

:17:07.:17:10.

but I genuinely do not know the figure. I think this is an

:17:11.:17:16.

uncomfortable truth. People have to understand what has happened in our

:17:17.:17:22.

country, two particular newspapers, creating an atmosphere and setting

:17:23.:17:26.

an agenda and I think many people are rather concerned, some

:17:27.:17:29.

frightened, to put their head over the parapet. There are many millions

:17:30.:17:35.

of people who feel totally excluded from this process. Many of them

:17:36.:17:40.

voted to remain. And they have lost their voice. We have covered the

:17:41.:17:43.

ground I wanted to. We're joined now by the Ukip MEP

:17:44.:17:45.

and former leader Nigel Farage. Article 50 triggered, we are leaving

:17:46.:17:57.

the EU, the single market and the customs union. What is left you to

:17:58.:18:02.

complain about? All of that will happen and hopefully we will get the

:18:03.:18:05.

triggered this week which is good news. What worries me a little I'm

:18:06.:18:09.

not sure the government recognises how strong their handers. At the

:18:10.:18:14.

summit in Brussels, the word in the corridors is that we are prepared to

:18:15.:18:17.

give away fishing waters as a bargaining chip and the worry is

:18:18.:18:22.

what deal we get. Are we leaving, yes I am pleased about that. You are

:18:23.:18:26.

under relevant voice in the deal because the deal will be voted on in

:18:27.:18:31.

Parliament and you have one MP. You are missing the point, the real vote

:18:32.:18:36.

in parliament is not in London but Strasbourg. This is perhaps the

:18:37.:18:40.

biggest obstacle the British Government faces. Not what happens

:18:41.:18:44.

in the Commons that the end of the two years, the European Parliament

:18:45.:18:49.

could veto the deal. What that means is people need to adopt a different

:18:50.:18:54.

approach. We do not need to be lobbying in the corridors of

:18:55.:18:56.

Brussels to get a good deal, we need is a country to be out there talking

:18:57.:19:02.

to the German car workers and Belgian chocolate makers, putting as

:19:03.:19:06.

much pressure as we can on politicians from across Europe to

:19:07.:19:10.

come to a sensible arrangement. It is in their interests more than

:19:11.:19:15.

ours. In what way is the vision of Brexit set out by David Davis any

:19:16.:19:22.

different from your own? I am delighted there are people now

:19:23.:19:25.

adopting the position I argued for many years. Good. But now... Like

:19:26.:19:33.

Douglas Carswell, he said he found David Davis' performers this morning

:19:34.:19:39.

reassuring. It is. And just as when Theresa May was Home Secretary every

:19:40.:19:44.

performance she gave was hugely reassuring. She was seen to be a

:19:45.:19:47.

heroine after her conference speeches and then did not deliver. I

:19:48.:19:54.

am concerned that even before we start we are making concessions. You

:19:55.:20:00.

described in the EU's divorce bill demands, 60 billion euros is floated

:20:01.:20:04.

around. You said it is laughable and I understand that. Do you maintain

:20:05.:20:10.

that we will not have to pay a penny to leave? It is nine months since we

:20:11.:20:18.

voted exit and assuming the trigger of Article 50, we would have paid 30

:20:19.:20:24.

billion in since we had a vote. We are still members. But honestly, I

:20:25.:20:28.

do not think there is an appetite for us to pay a massive divorce

:20:29.:20:32.

Bill. There are assets also. Not a penny? There will be some ongoing

:20:33.:20:40.

commitments, but the numbers talked about our 50, ?60 billion, they are

:20:41.:20:46.

frankly laughable. I am trying to find out if you are prepared to

:20:47.:20:51.

accept some kind of exit cost, it may be nowhere near 60 billion. We

:20:52.:20:56.

have to do a net agreement, the government briefed about our share

:20:57.:20:59.

of the European Union investment bank. Would you accept a

:21:00.:21:05.

transitional arrangement, deal, five, ten billion, as part of the

:21:06.:21:10.

divorce settlement? We are painted net ?30 million every single day at

:21:11.:21:15.

the moment, ?10 billion plus every year. That is just our contribution.

:21:16.:21:20.

We are going to make a massive saving on this. What do you make of

:21:21.:21:27.

what Anna Soubry said, that if there is no deal, and it is being talked

:21:28.:21:32.

about more. Maybe the government managing expectations. There is an

:21:33.:21:36.

expectation we will have a deal, but if there is no deal, that the

:21:37.:21:41.

government cannot just go to WTO rules, but it has to have a vote in

:21:42.:21:46.

parliament? By the time we get to that there will be a general

:21:47.:21:49.

election coming down the tracks and I suspect that if at the end of the

:21:50.:21:55.

two-year process there is no deal and by the way, no deal is a lot

:21:56.:21:59.

better for the nation than where we currently are, because we freed of

:22:00.:22:04.

regulations and able to make our own deals in the world. I think what

:22:05.:22:07.

would happen, and if Parliament said it did not back, at the end of the

:22:08.:22:14.

negotiation a general election would happen quickly. According to reports

:22:15.:22:21.

this morning, one of your most senior aides has passed a dossier to

:22:22.:22:26.

police claiming Tories committed electoral fraud in Thanet South, the

:22:27.:22:30.

seat contested in the election. What evidence to you have? I read that in

:22:31.:22:36.

the newspapers as you have. I am not going to comment on it. Will you not

:22:37.:22:39.

aware of the contents of the dossier? I am not aware of the

:22:40.:22:46.

dossier. He was your election strategists. I am dubious as to

:22:47.:22:52.

whether this dossier exists at all. Perhaps the newspapers have got this

:22:53.:22:58.

wrong. Concerns about the downloading of data the took place

:22:59.:23:05.

in that constituency, there are. Allegedly, he has refuted it, was it

:23:06.:23:12.

done by your MP to give information to the Tories, do you have evidence

:23:13.:23:17.

about? We have evidence Mr Carswell downloaded information, we have no

:23:18.:23:24.

evidence what he did with it. It is not just your aide who has been

:23:25.:23:28.

making allegations against the Conservatives in Thanet South and

:23:29.:23:34.

other seats, if the evidence was to be substantial, and if it was to

:23:35.:23:41.

result in another by-election being called an Thanet South had to be

:23:42.:23:45.

fought again, would you be the Ukip candidate? I probably would. You

:23:46.:23:50.

probably would? Yes. Just probably? Just probably. It would be your

:23:51.:23:56.

eighth attempt. Winning seats in parliament under first past the post

:23:57.:24:00.

is not the only way to change politics in Britain and I would like

:24:01.:24:03.

to think I proved that. Let's go back to Anna Soubry. The implication

:24:04.:24:09.

of what we were saying on the panel at the start of the show and what

:24:10.:24:13.

Nigel Farage was saying there would be that if at the end of the process

:24:14.:24:18.

whatever the vote, if the government were to lose it, it would provoke a

:24:19.:24:22.

general election properly. I think that would be right. Let's get real.

:24:23.:24:27.

The government is not going to come to Parliament with anything other

:24:28.:24:31.

than something it believes is a good deal and if it rejected it, would be

:24:32.:24:39.

unlikely, there would be a de facto vote of no confidence and it would

:24:40.:24:43.

be within the fixed term Parliaments act and that be it. The problem is,

:24:44.:24:48.

more likely, because of the story put up about the 50 billion, 60

:24:49.:24:54.

billion and you look at the way things are flagged up that both the

:24:55.:24:57.

Prime Minister and Boris Johnson saying, we should be asking them for

:24:58.:25:02.

money back, I think the big fear and the fear I have is we will be

:25:03.:25:07.

crashing out in six months. You think we could leave as quickly as

:25:08.:25:12.

six months. Explain that. I think they will stoke up the demand from

:25:13.:25:18.

the EU for 50, 60 billion back and my real concern is that within six

:25:19.:25:22.

months, where we're not making much progress, maybe nine months, and

:25:23.:25:27.

people are getting increasingly fed up with the EU because they are told

:25:28.:25:32.

it wants unreasonable demands, and then the crash. I think what is

:25:33.:25:35.

happening is the government is putting in place scaffolding at the

:25:36.:25:40.

bottom of the cliff to break our fall when we come to fall off that

:25:41.:25:45.

cliff and I think many in government are preparing not for a two-year

:25:46.:25:50.

process, but six, to nine months, off the cliff, out we go. That is my

:25:51.:25:56.

fear. That is interesting. I have not heard that express before by

:25:57.:26:00.

someone in your position. I suspect you have made Nigel Farage's date.

:26:01.:26:07.

It is a lovely thought. I would say to Anna Soubry she is out of date

:26:08.:26:13.

with this. 40 years ago there was a good argument for joining the common

:26:14.:26:16.

market because tariffs around the world was so high. That has changed

:26:17.:26:21.

with the World Trade Organisation. We are leaving the EU and rejoining

:26:22.:26:25.

a great big world and it is exciting. She was giving an

:26:26.:26:34.

interesting perspective on what could happen in nine months rather

:26:35.:26:35.

than two years. I thank you both. It was Philip Hammond's first

:26:36.:26:40.

budget on Wednesday - billed as a steady-as-she-goes

:26:41.:26:42.

affair, but turned out to cause uproar after the Chancellor appeared

:26:43.:26:48.

to contradict a Tory manifesto commitment with an increase

:26:49.:26:50.

in national insurance contributions. The aim was to address what some see

:26:51.:26:52.

as an imbalance in the tax system, where employees pay

:26:53.:27:01.

more National Insurance The controversy centres

:27:02.:27:03.

on increasing the so-called class 4 rate for the self-employed who make

:27:04.:27:06.

a profit of more than ?8,060 a year. It will go up in stages

:27:07.:27:09.

from 9% to 11% in 2019. The changes mean that over one

:27:10.:27:16.

and a half million will pay on average ?240 a year

:27:17.:27:20.

more in contributions. Some Conservative MPs were unhappy,

:27:21.:27:24.

with even the Wales Minister saying: "I will apologise to every

:27:25.:27:30.

voter in Wales that read the Conservative manifesto

:27:31.:27:33.

in the 2015 election." The Sun labelled Philip

:27:34.:27:34.

Hammond "spite van man". The Daily Mail called the budget

:27:35.:27:40.

"no laughing matter". By Thursday, Theresa May

:27:41.:27:43.

said the government One of the first things I did

:27:44.:27:45.

as Prime Minister was to commission Matthew Taylor to review the rights

:27:46.:27:51.

and protections that were available to self-employed workers

:27:52.:27:55.

and whether they should be enhanced. People will be able to look

:27:56.:27:58.

at the government paper when we produce it, showing

:27:59.:28:00.

all our changes, and take And, of course, the Chancellor will

:28:01.:28:03.

be speaking, as will his ministers, to MPs, businesspeople and others

:28:04.:28:08.

to listen to the concerns. Well, the man you heard mentioned

:28:09.:28:12.

there, Matthew Taylor, has the job of producing

:28:13.:28:14.

a report into the future Welcome. The Chancellor has decided

:28:15.:28:28.

the self-employed should pay almost the same in National Insurance, not

:28:29.:28:33.

the same but almost, as the employed will stop what is left of your

:28:34.:28:37.

commission? The commission has a broader frame of reference and we

:28:38.:28:41.

are interested in the quality of work in the economy at the heart of

:28:42.:28:47.

what I hope will be proposing is a set of shifts that will improve the

:28:48.:28:52.

quality of that work so we have an economy where all work is fair and

:28:53.:28:56.

decent and all jobs give people scope for development and

:28:57.:28:59.

fulfilment. The issue of taxes a small part. You will cover that? We

:29:00.:29:08.

will, because the tax system and employment regulation system drive

:29:09.:29:10.

particular behaviours in our labour market. You approve I think of the

:29:11.:29:17.

general direction of this policy of raising National Insurance on the

:29:18.:29:22.

self-employed. Taxing them in return perhaps for more state benefits. Why

:29:23.:29:27.

are so many others on the left against it from Tim Farron to John

:29:28.:29:31.

McDonnell? Tax rises are unpopular and it is the role of the opposition

:29:32.:29:36.

parties to make capital from unpopular tax rises. I think as tax

:29:37.:29:40.

rises go this is broadly progressive. There are self-employed

:29:41.:29:44.

people on low incomes and they will be better off. It is economic league

:29:45.:29:49.

rational because the reason for the difference in National Insurance --

:29:50.:29:52.

economically. It was to do with state entitlements. The government

:29:53.:29:57.

is consulting about paid parental leave. A series of governments have

:29:58.:30:02.

not been good about thinking about medium sustainability of the tax

:30:03.:30:07.

base. Self-employment is growing. But it is eroding the tax base. It

:30:08.:30:11.

is important to address those issues. A number of think tanks have

:30:12.:30:18.

said this is a progressive move. Yet, a number of left-wing

:30:19.:30:23.

politicians have been against it. And a number of Tories have said

:30:24.:30:29.

this is a progressive move and not a Tory government move, the balance of

:30:30.:30:32.

you will pay more tax, but you will get more state benefits is not a

:30:33.:30:37.

Tory approach to things. That a Tory approach will be you will pay less

:30:38.:30:41.

tax but entitled to fewer benefits as well.

:30:42.:30:44.

I preferred in and policies to politics -- I prefer policies. When

:30:45.:30:54.

people look at the policy and when they look the fact that there is no

:30:55.:30:58.

real historical basis for that big national insurance differential,

:30:59.:31:00.

they see it is a sensible policy. I don't have to deal with the

:31:01.:31:05.

politics. There has been a huge growth in self-employment from the

:31:06.:31:08.

turn of the millennium. It's been strongest amongst older workers,

:31:09.:31:10.

women part-timers. Do you have any idea, do you have

:31:11.:31:18.

the data in your commission that could tell us how many are taking

:31:19.:31:22.

self-employment because they like the flexibility and they like the

:31:23.:31:26.

tax advantages that come with it, too, or they are being forced into

:31:27.:31:31.

it by employers who don't want the extra costs of employment? Do we

:31:32.:31:36.

know the difference? We do, broadly. Most surveys on self-employment and

:31:37.:31:43.

flexible forms of employment suggest about two thirds to three quarters

:31:44.:31:45.

enjoy it, they like the flexibility, they like the autonomy and about a

:31:46.:31:49.

third to one quarter are less happy. That tends to be because they would

:31:50.:31:54.

like to have a full-time permanent job. It is not necessary that they

:31:55.:31:56.

don't enjoy what they are doing, they would like to do other things.

:31:57.:32:01.

And some of the protections that come with it? Yes. There are some

:32:02.:32:05.

people who are forced into southern employees by high-risk but also some

:32:06.:32:09.

people feel like they can't get a proper job as it were. --

:32:10.:32:13.

self-employment by people who hire them. It is on the narrow matter of

:32:14.:32:19.

tax revenues but if you are employed on ?32,000 the state will take over

:32:20.:32:23.

?6,000 in national insurance contributions, that is quite chunky.

:32:24.:32:27.

If you are self-employed it is ?2300. But the big difference

:32:28.:32:31.

between those figures isn't what the employee is paying, it's the

:32:32.:32:38.

employer's contributions up to almost 14%, and cupped for as much

:32:39.:32:42.

as you are paid. What do you do about employers' contributions for

:32:43.:32:51.

the self employed? -- it is uncapped for as much. What I recommend is

:32:52.:32:55.

that we should probably move from taxing employment to taxing labour.

:32:56.:32:59.

We should probably have a more level playing field so it doesn't really

:33:00.:33:03.

matter... Explained that I thought it was the same thing. If you are a

:33:04.:33:07.

self-employed gardener, you are a different tax regime to a gardener

:33:08.:33:12.

who works for a gardening firm. On the individual side and on the firm

:33:13.:33:20.

side. As we see new business models, so-called gig working, partly with

:33:21.:33:23.

technology, we need a more level playing field saying that we're

:33:24.:33:28.

taxing people's work, not the form in which they deliver that. That is

:33:29.:33:33.

part of the reason we have seen the growth of particular business

:33:34.:33:35.

models. They are innovative and creative and partly driven by the

:33:36.:33:40.

fact that if you can describe yourself as self-employed there are

:33:41.:33:44.

tax advantages. Coming out in June? Will you come back and talk to us?

:33:45.:33:46.

Yes. We say goodbye to viewers

:33:47.:33:48.

in Scotland, who leave us now Coming up here in 20 minutes,

:33:49.:33:53.

we'll be talking to the former Tory MP who was the root

:33:54.:33:58.

of Donald Trump's allegation Hello and welcome to

:33:59.:34:13.

the Sunday Politics Wales. In a few minutes: Will there ever be

:34:14.:34:16.

enough cash spent on social Money's going to be tight

:34:17.:34:24.

for the next few years. We'll be asking what

:34:25.:34:28.

else can be done. But first, Welsh Liberal Democrats

:34:29.:34:30.

say they're on the way back The last two elections has seen them

:34:31.:34:32.

down to just one MP in Wales, But, with membership on the up,

:34:33.:34:39.

they're looking to make gains I met the party's leader in Wales,

:34:40.:34:43.

Mark Williams, at the party conference in Swansea,

:34:44.:34:46.

and asked about Mark Williams, I guess

:34:47.:34:48.

the big challenge for you, you are down to one MP,

:34:49.:34:52.

one AM, defending council seats, is how do you make sure

:34:53.:34:54.

that the party is still relevant as you go towards

:34:55.:34:58.

the elections in May? Well, you are right,

:34:59.:35:03.

it is not about defending seats, I think all the anecdotal evidence

:35:04.:35:05.

at the very least suggests We have had gains in Cardiff

:35:06.:35:09.

and Newport since the Assembly elections, so be in no doubt,

:35:10.:35:13.

yes, defending those 72 seats across the country,

:35:14.:35:15.

but it is about gaining more. That does mean issues

:35:16.:35:18.

about being relevant to the debate that the country is now having

:35:19.:35:20.

on issues such as housing, health and social care,

:35:21.:35:23.

issues about education. We have heard at this conference

:35:24.:35:25.

from some of the aspirations of Kirsty Williams, and,

:35:26.:35:28.

of course, against the backdrop We come back to that in a moment,

:35:29.:35:32.

just looking at the council elections, it is not that long ago

:35:33.:35:42.

that Cardiff, Swansea, Wrexham, Newport, all Lib Dem councils,

:35:43.:35:45.

do you think you'll ever get back Well, we have gained a seat

:35:46.:35:47.

in Cardiff since the calamitous loss No one will escape from the fact

:35:48.:35:53.

that we have had a bad two years. When you lose two of your three

:35:54.:35:58.

parliamentary colleagues in Wales, and I'm the only one surviving,

:35:59.:36:01.

when you lose four of your Assembly seats and you are left with one,

:36:02.:36:04.

of course it is a traumatic experience but the party

:36:05.:36:07.

needs to learn from that, look at why that happened

:36:08.:36:09.

and move forward. The one thing people can never

:36:10.:36:11.

charge the Liberal party or the Liberal Democrats

:36:12.:36:14.

for are running away from a fight. You say you need to learn

:36:15.:36:17.

the lessons, what are those I think the lesson is about staying

:36:18.:36:24.

clear to your principles and your convictions,

:36:25.:36:30.

and in your first question you used the word relevant,

:36:31.:36:32.

being relevant to the debate that the country is now having,

:36:33.:36:35.

and I think what Liberal Democrats have been saying, for instance,

:36:36.:36:37.

on Europe and the threats to the Welsh economy are very

:36:38.:36:40.

relevant to the debate You said you had to stay true

:36:41.:36:42.

to your convictions and principles, as if that hasn't happened

:36:43.:36:46.

in the past? I think in a coalition

:36:47.:36:48.

government inevitably, coalition governments

:36:49.:36:50.

by their nature are compromises, and there were good achievements

:36:51.:36:51.

by the UK coalition government on things like tax, pension locks

:36:52.:36:54.

and things of that nature, but there were also some pretty

:36:55.:36:56.

disastrous decisions We need to look at those

:36:57.:36:58.

and reinsert Liberal values, Liberal values about public

:36:59.:37:03.

services, internationalism, We need to get the green

:37:04.:37:06.

agenda across to people. These are the things that matter

:37:07.:37:10.

to people in their lives. And it's a job of work, and it will,

:37:11.:37:13.

as I have said in my speech, it will take time for that message

:37:14.:37:17.

to get across to people and resonate but I think the seeds

:37:18.:37:21.

are there for the continued growth How long do you think it will take

:37:22.:37:23.

until you can get back to sort of having more MPs and more AMs

:37:24.:37:28.

and more councils? I have always said all targets

:37:29.:37:30.

are to be broken and there Well, they are, the party

:37:31.:37:34.

moving forward, you know, be in no doubt has a target

:37:35.:37:45.

of gaining more councillors I am not going to put a number

:37:46.:37:48.

on that, we are two months away from the election

:37:49.:37:52.

and we are still selecting candidates in some parts

:37:53.:37:55.

of the country, but certainly we aspire, and I, as leader,

:37:56.:37:57.

look forward to more Liberal Democrat councillors

:37:58.:37:59.

than we currently have. And, yes, the work will then follow

:38:00.:38:01.

on in terms of getting our Assembly group re-established

:38:02.:38:04.

in the National Assembly and hopefully getting some more

:38:05.:38:06.

colleagues elected to join me on the benches in

:38:07.:38:08.

the House of Commons. I guess one of the challenges

:38:09.:38:10.

you are facing is making your voice heard, and I just wonder if that's

:38:11.:38:13.

more difficult, and do you think it has been more difficult over

:38:14.:38:16.

the last ten months or so, having Kirsty Williams in the Labour

:38:17.:38:19.

cabinet, in the Assembly, and therefore not having that voice,

:38:20.:38:21.

that independent voice in the Assembly scrutinising

:38:22.:38:24.

and calling for a different Well, you are right to highlight

:38:25.:38:26.

that, and we have a special conference that authorised Kirsty

:38:27.:38:29.

to take that important seat in the Cabinet

:38:30.:38:31.

after the invitation of Carwyn I think she was right to do so,

:38:32.:38:34.

but the party did have to weigh up one person sitting

:38:35.:38:38.

on the backbenches, in effect an independent,

:38:39.:38:40.

because she was the only one, or being at the heart

:38:41.:38:42.

of decision-making in the National Assembly,

:38:43.:38:45.

pushing our agenda on reduced class sizes, on a fair regime

:38:46.:38:47.

of funding for students. I think on balance we got that

:38:48.:38:50.

judgment right and I think Kirsty is achieving things and pushing

:38:51.:38:54.

the education agenda, something which Liberal Democrats,

:38:55.:38:56.

it is part of our DNA and she is there addressing those

:38:57.:38:58.

issues, addressing those concerns. So, yes, it has been a challenge,

:38:59.:39:01.

it always was going to be a challenge when you have one

:39:02.:39:04.

member, it is a challenge for me in the House of Commons,

:39:05.:39:07.

for the nine of us in the House of Commons out of 650 MPs

:39:08.:39:10.

to get the voice heard, If your convictions are right,

:39:11.:39:13.

you have got to keep pushing them Well, looking at convictions,

:39:14.:39:18.

Lib Dems probably considered on a UK wide level are the most pro-European

:39:19.:39:22.

party, and you were talking a lot in your speech there about Brexit

:39:23.:39:25.

and what needs to happen now on Brexit, and you have also been

:39:26.:39:28.

sent there needs to be that second referendum to ratify whatever

:39:29.:39:31.

proposals come back. Just talk to me a little

:39:32.:39:33.

bit about that. Well, it is not a second referendum,

:39:34.:39:35.

it is a ratification referendum. The decision was made on June

:39:36.:39:41.

23rd and I said it twice in my speech and I say it again,

:39:42.:39:44.

we respect the outcome The country decided the direction

:39:45.:39:47.

of travel, but what it didn't And as that detail rolls out

:39:48.:39:50.

in terms of the issues about the single market,

:39:51.:39:54.

above almost anything else, the single market, and also

:39:55.:39:56.

for instance the issue of the 50,000 EU nationals that live in Wales,

:39:57.:39:59.

we need clarity on those issues and I think that warrants,

:40:00.:40:02.

if we had a Democratic vote at the start of the process,

:40:03.:40:05.

a Democratic vote at the end of it because people are right,

:40:06.:40:10.

as a country we have to move forward, but we can't slip out

:40:11.:40:13.

of Europe on the basis Is there perhaps an opportunity

:40:14.:40:15.

for Liberal Democrats here for being the voice,

:40:16.:40:21.

if you like, of the 48% of people Do you see that as part

:40:22.:40:24.

of the rebuilding of the Lib Dems? I think Tim Farron has

:40:25.:40:28.

been incredibly clear on the party's position on Europe,

:40:29.:40:32.

calling for the ratification referendum, calling also,

:40:33.:40:34.

as the Assembly government and other parties have in the National

:40:35.:40:36.

Assembly for our membership, or our unfettered access

:40:37.:40:39.

to the single market, the party has been clear on that

:40:40.:40:41.

but it's not sufficient for us to restrict ourselves

:40:42.:40:45.

to the 48% of Remainers. We can't ignore the majority opinion

:40:46.:40:48.

but we do need to talk to people and address the concerns that people

:40:49.:40:54.

have raised, and that is why I believe that, as this debate rolls

:40:55.:40:57.

out, and it will take years to achieve, people will look

:40:58.:41:00.

to the second referendum as What will be in that

:41:01.:41:02.

second referendum? What you could have then is that

:41:03.:41:07.

if people reject that second referendum is that process starts

:41:08.:41:09.

all over again and then Well, I think the process

:41:10.:41:13.

would remain that we would remain within the European Union,

:41:14.:41:19.

if that were the will of the people. I think that is far preferable

:41:20.:41:23.

to having a situation at the moment when Theresa May has said

:41:24.:41:27.

that there will be a vote on the deal she achieves,

:41:28.:41:30.

or no deal at all, which means those World Trade Organisation

:41:31.:41:32.

tariffs slip in very, very inconveniently to many farming

:41:33.:41:34.

businesses or the industries of Wales right across the board,

:41:35.:41:36.

so I think we need to The other key thing I should say

:41:37.:41:39.

I think we need to achieve is to have a meaningful voice

:41:40.:41:44.

for the Welsh Assembly government, who had gone to great pains to draw

:41:45.:41:47.

up an excellent White Paper, but I question the extent

:41:48.:41:51.

to which they are being listened Wales' voice needs to be very clear,

:41:52.:41:55.

but at the end of that process, the end of a negotiated settlement,

:41:56.:41:59.

there should be a vote. Wales' voice being listened to,

:42:00.:42:05.

the Lib Dem's voice being listened to, is there enough

:42:06.:42:08.

of that happening? What I am getting at,

:42:09.:42:09.

as the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems, Are you out there often

:42:10.:42:12.

enough, making sure Well, you know, you can only do

:42:13.:42:15.

what is humanly possible. I am a member of Parliament

:42:16.:42:20.

for Ceredigion and I am the leader of this party and there obviously

:42:21.:42:23.

has to be a balance between the two I don't have the privilege of a seat

:42:24.:42:27.

in the National Assembly, So you're right to to highlight

:42:28.:42:31.

the issue but I think this is why I rely on people in the party,

:42:32.:42:35.

I have got a team of spokespeople here, my colleagues in the House

:42:36.:42:39.

of Lords are working very hard. I can assure you, every media

:42:40.:42:41.

opportunity that is ever offered to us by the BBC and others,

:42:42.:42:44.

we take advantage of. But, of course, when you have

:42:45.:42:47.

lost a sizeable chunk of your central team,

:42:48.:42:49.

it is a huge responsibility for the individuals that remain

:42:50.:42:52.

and the individuals are determined to remain on the basis that we have

:42:53.:42:54.

more people elected to carry the message forward,

:42:55.:42:58.

and that is the challenge What can be done to meet increasing

:42:59.:43:00.

demand for social care? Extra money isn't going to solve

:43:01.:43:14.

the issue, so is root One AM has told us the problem

:43:15.:43:19.

could provide an opportunity. In a moment I'll be asking two

:43:20.:43:28.

leading AMs what they'd do, but first Bethan Lewis explains

:43:29.:43:32.

the issues involved. Jonathan Parker and his family

:43:33.:43:36.

are amongst the thousands that Support workers provide 17

:43:37.:43:47.

hours a week of care and support for Jonathan,

:43:48.:43:51.

tailored for his interests. I go swimming, go swimming,

:43:52.:43:55.

and I go for walks. The council pays an organisation

:43:56.:44:00.

called Cartrefi Cymru to provide support for Jonathan so he can live

:44:01.:44:17.

at home and be independent. With Jonathan, obviously

:44:18.:44:23.

all of our services, and all of the provisions we provide

:44:24.:44:25.

are tailored to what Jonathan actually wants to do so instead

:44:26.:44:30.

of just coming in and saying, right, we are doing this,

:44:31.:44:33.

this and this, we take time to sit down and say,

:44:34.:44:35.

right, Jonathan, what What are the type of people that

:44:36.:44:37.

you actually get on with, Interests for Jonathan obviously

:44:38.:44:44.

are swimming and things as well so we have got that on board

:44:45.:44:48.

so the staff that actually work with him enjoy swimming,

:44:49.:44:51.

so it is about making a tailored, person-centred sort of plan

:44:52.:44:53.

around his support. Social care and how it is paid

:44:54.:44:57.

for has shot to the top of the political agenda

:44:58.:45:00.

because of concerns about a system Here in Wales decisions to protect

:45:01.:45:03.

funding over the last few years have meant fewer warnings of crisis,

:45:04.:45:12.

but still, huge challenges. Social care is complex,

:45:13.:45:17.

expensive, and covers a whole range of services,

:45:18.:45:20.

like help for adults with disabilities and help

:45:21.:45:23.

for looked-after children. But the main focus recently has

:45:24.:45:26.

been the help people may And though funding for older

:45:27.:45:29.

adult social care has remained stable in Wales,

:45:30.:45:34.

the problem is the population A report this week calculated that

:45:35.:45:36.

funding per head for over-65s has At the moment around one fifth

:45:37.:45:44.

of the Welsh population is over 65, but that is projected to rise

:45:45.:45:53.

to a quarter by 2030. In the Budget the Chancellor

:45:54.:45:56.

announced an extra ?2 billion As a result of that and other

:45:57.:46:00.

spending announcements, the UK Government says over four

:46:01.:46:07.

years there will be around ?50 million a year

:46:08.:46:10.

for the Welsh government. It is not clear yet how

:46:11.:46:12.

much of that, if any, will go to social care,

:46:13.:46:16.

but Welsh councils say there is an urgent need

:46:17.:46:18.

for a substantial injection of cash. You can't solve that just by dealing

:46:19.:46:22.

with an efficiency agenda, We've got a ?90 million

:46:23.:46:26.

pressure on an annual basis on Welsh social care so,

:46:27.:46:32.

you know, even if the whole ?50 million goes in

:46:33.:46:35.

from Welsh government, from their consequential,

:46:36.:46:37.

it still doesn't meet the entirety of that pressure,

:46:38.:46:40.

so we have got to think about social And this Labour Assembly Member,

:46:41.:46:43.

as well, is calling for new ways I think there is potential for us

:46:44.:46:50.

to marry here economic development with the care service,

:46:51.:46:55.

in the sense that we could be starting to build homes for examples

:46:56.:46:59.

that are adequate for a longer term That is something where

:47:00.:47:01.

we could build an economic I think that is something

:47:02.:47:10.

we could start to be creative with. What are your plans for going

:47:11.:47:14.

with Dawn on Saturday? You like going to Cardiff market,

:47:15.:47:17.

don't you? Yeah. Providing care at home is the main

:47:18.:47:23.

theme of a plan published this week by a new organisation,

:47:24.:47:31.

Social Care Wales. It launches officially next

:47:32.:47:34.

month and takes over from the Care Council,

:47:35.:47:37.

but with beefed-up responsibilities. Its chair says there are big

:47:38.:47:44.

challenges, but Wales has These are not simple issues,

:47:45.:47:46.

they are very complex issues, and a growing situation,

:47:47.:47:50.

but I am confident that we have here in Wales the tools now to get

:47:51.:47:52.

to grips with the challenge The Welsh government will have

:47:53.:47:56.

to balance competing demands on the extra cash from the budget

:47:57.:48:01.

but whatever the decision, it is certain more money

:48:02.:48:04.

won't provide all of the answers. Joining me now to look at what can

:48:05.:48:09.

be done is Plaid Cymru's Spokesman for Health and Social Care,

:48:10.:48:14.

Rhun ap Iorwerth, and the Chair of the Assembly's Public

:48:15.:48:17.

Accounts Committee, Thank you both for coming in.

:48:18.:48:30.

Starting with you, Nick, is it fair to say that we look at the spending

:48:31.:48:34.

and the attention given to health and education, and you compare that

:48:35.:48:38.

with the attention given to social care, you see why some people are

:48:39.:48:43.

calling it a Cinderella service? Yes, it has been neglected for far

:48:44.:48:46.

too long. When you look at the number of people supported by our

:48:47.:48:50.

social care services and the number of people working in it hasn't had

:48:51.:48:51.

enough attention. That is not the fault of any one

:48:52.:49:08.

particular party or the Welsh government, it is politicians as a

:49:09.:49:11.

whole who haven't kept the focus on it and I am glad it is getting the

:49:12.:49:14.

focus it deserves. Rhun ap Iorwerth, we know the problems there, we have

:49:15.:49:17.

heard about them in the peace there. To what extent do you think there is

:49:18.:49:20.

a recognition of the problem by the parties grappling with it? I

:49:21.:49:22.

questioned the supposition that we are not talking about this enough, I

:49:23.:49:24.

spend a lot of time talking about what we can do the social care in

:49:25.:49:28.

the future. We know that there is a financial problem that we face but

:49:29.:49:31.

there was a policy question as well, we need to start thinking

:49:32.:49:33.

innovatively about how to tackle social care in future. We know the

:49:34.:49:36.

population is getting older, let's celebrate that, it is a great thing.

:49:37.:49:48.

We need to realise that it will inevitably lead to a different way

:49:49.:49:51.

of doing things. We can talk about it at a basic level, that we need to

:49:52.:49:53.

treat more people in their community, in their homes rather

:49:54.:49:56.

than hospitals, but we need to find ways of actually making it happen.

:49:57.:49:59.

Like what? Give me an innovation that you would like to see? Several

:50:00.:50:05.

things could be done, one experiment going on in my constituency is where

:50:06.:50:08.

the health board is co-investing with a local authority in a care

:50:09.:50:16.

home which will bring, it doesn't integrate health and social care

:50:17.:50:18.

completely in terms of their structures, but it does mean that

:50:19.:50:22.

both of them are working together. I am excited about it and I think it

:50:23.:50:26.

can work and it is the kind of model I think could be replicated

:50:27.:50:29.

elsewhere. We need to see good practice and replicated. We can also

:50:30.:50:33.

look abroad, there are very good examples on continental Europe and

:50:34.:50:37.

Italy, for example, of whether third sector is playing an increased role

:50:38.:50:48.

in the delivery of social care. It the kind of direction I think we

:50:49.:50:51.

need to move into, looking into new ideas and facing up to the problems

:50:52.:50:54.

that will be coming our way in the not too distant future. I don't want

:50:55.:50:56.

this to be about putting more money because it will never solve the

:50:57.:50:59.

problem but is there an issue here? In England they are spending a lot

:51:00.:51:02.

less per head than we are spending in Wales. More money isn't the

:51:03.:51:06.

problem, but a lack of funding will certainly make the problem worse. It

:51:07.:51:10.

is a bit of a red herring to say they spend less per head in England.

:51:11.:51:14.

Traditionally more has been spent in Wales because of our heritage and

:51:15.:51:19.

our industrial heritage and the fact that there have been illnesses

:51:20.:51:22.

related to those old industries. It is not about where we are starting

:51:23.:51:26.

from, it is about where we want to get to and the money required. It is

:51:27.:51:32.

true that money won't solve this overnight but money is a part of the

:51:33.:51:36.

answer so it is very important that the UK Government funding that goes

:51:37.:51:41.

into social care in England, the chunk of that money that goes to

:51:42.:51:44.

Wales is used by the Welsh government to fund social care here

:51:45.:51:48.

as well. That would be ?50 million a year and we have heard Steve Thomas

:51:49.:51:51.

in the report they're saying that they are already facing a ?90

:51:52.:51:54.

million a year shortfall, so even the money, as much as it is, coming

:51:55.:52:00.

from UK Government, it will barely touch the sides, will it? I know my

:52:01.:52:05.

party had been banging on about this for years, we have had an

:52:06.:52:08.

underfunding of the NHS overall for the last five years and that means

:52:09.:52:12.

we are starting from a poor position. We are where we are and

:52:13.:52:15.

local authorities are looking about funding hole, even as we are at the

:52:16.:52:19.

moment. As Rhun ap Iorwerth said we are an ageing population and that

:52:20.:52:23.

will only get worse so we need to grapple with these issues now. We

:52:24.:52:29.

know the matter of nonresidential services, in Wales there is a cap of

:52:30.:52:33.

?70 per week on what you would have to pay for that. Do you think has

:52:34.:52:36.

more and more of the population become older and we are seeing their

:52:37.:52:41.

0.25 by 20 30 will be over the age of 65, doesn't need to be looked at

:52:42.:52:45.

again? Should people contribute more towards the non-residential element

:52:46.:52:50.

of social care? We need to continuously look at the situation

:52:51.:52:54.

and it will always be a fine balance between delivering through the

:52:55.:52:58.

public sector, through public services, the services and the care

:52:59.:53:02.

that people require and deserve, and looking at how all of us as

:53:03.:53:06.

individuals contribute towards that. We also need to be looking at the

:53:07.:53:14.

model. We should recognise that the way we have been doing things is on

:53:15.:53:18.

the way we can do things in 15 or 20 years' time. We could put all of our

:53:19.:53:21.

money into health and social care and it probably wouldn't be enough.

:53:22.:53:26.

That is one realisation. They made a crazy decision in England, social --

:53:27.:53:31.

that the Conservative government, to starve social can put more money

:53:32.:53:35.

into hospitals and that is not the way it works and they have seen the

:53:36.:53:38.

problems that has arisen in emergency departments in hospital

:53:39.:54:00.

because of that. In England they are trying to readdress that balance but

:54:01.:54:04.

we have our own issues in Wales, where we have seen spending per

:54:05.:54:06.

capita shrink by about 13% in the last five years. We need to get it

:54:07.:54:10.

back to where we were but we need to be looking at ways of making our

:54:11.:54:12.

pound go much further, including possible contributions from people

:54:13.:54:15.

like me and you to make that Perry. It will be a whole different system

:54:16.:54:17.

and now is the time to make that work. This is Plaid Cymru talking

:54:18.:54:20.

about increasing the basic rate of income tax to pay for health and

:54:21.:54:23.

social care and education is it? No, this is a recognition we cannot

:54:24.:54:25.

spend the money in the way that we are now. There is a parliamentary

:54:26.:54:28.

review underway that Plaid Cymru asked for and labour agreed to give

:54:29.:54:30.

to us after the election last year. It is a review of how things will

:54:31.:54:32.

have to change. If we change the care that we deliver we

:54:33.:54:49.

have to always be looking at how we pay for that care. Everything is

:54:50.:54:52.

going to be very different in ten or 15 or 20 years' time but we cannot

:54:53.:54:55.

wait 15 or 20 years to decide how we need to move forward. We need to

:54:56.:54:58.

make those decisions now and hopefully that parliamentary review

:54:59.:55:00.

can be a kick-start for that. We have heard in the piece from Bethan

:55:01.:55:02.

that there are opportunities to look at this as a form of economic

:55:03.:55:05.

development, due go along with that? Maybe not the exact model of

:55:06.:55:07.

building more homes for social care, but there could be opportunities

:55:08.:55:11.

here? I certainly wouldn't be going down the line assembly to increase

:55:12.:55:14.

taxes at this point. We need to look at the efficiencies would get from

:55:15.:55:17.

the services. There are opportunities and we can look at new

:55:18.:55:21.

models of delivering care. In my area there is a project

:55:22.:55:39.

in Monmouthshire talks about developing communities far more. We

:55:40.:55:42.

had to look at this across-the-board amanita make sure there are greater

:55:43.:55:45.

efficiencies and new ways of thinking. We need to tackle this

:55:46.:55:47.

because in a few years' time it could be too late to solve the

:55:48.:55:49.

problem. Is enough attention given to Wales wide approach to this? We

:55:50.:55:52.

have heard you both discussing local projects but is there enough to

:55:53.:55:54.

coordinate it nationally? I don't think there is. That is not to say

:55:55.:55:57.

it isn't a very difficult problem to deal with so you would expect that

:55:58.:56:00.

position not to be as it should be at the moment, but I think we

:56:01.:56:03.

certainly need to be renewing ourselves. This is a cross-party and

:56:04.:56:06.

across generation, it cannot be solved overnight so we need to five

:56:07.:56:09.

or ten years down the line make sure we have the right procedures in

:56:10.:56:17.

place so that people in the future can be reassured that they will get

:56:18.:56:19.

the social care that they need and that they have paid for. How hopeful

:56:20.:56:23.

are you that an answer can be found? We haven't got a choice, we have got

:56:24.:56:28.

to find the answer. What I am rather frustrated about is that things have

:56:29.:56:31.

been far too slow in terms of recognition of where we need to go.

:56:32.:56:35.

The parliamentary review I hope those kick-start that, as I say, but

:56:36.:56:39.

we need action from government now, looking for best practice here in

:56:40.:56:41.

Wales, across the UK, and across Europe and beyond, to make sure that

:56:42.:56:46.

we are able to make those finances are stretching away that we have

:56:47.:56:49.

been asking them to stretch so far. Everything is going to be done in a

:56:50.:56:53.

different way. Thank you for your time this morning.

:56:54.:56:55.

I look forward to your company next Sunday.

:56:56.:56:59.

We're on Twitter @walespolitics, but for now, diolch am wylio,

:57:00.:57:02.

Now the government plans for new grammar schools.

:57:03.:57:19.

The Education Secretary Justine Greening was

:57:20.:57:21.

speaking to a conference of headteachers on Friday.

:57:22.:57:23.

They're normally a pretty polite bunch, but they didn't

:57:24.:57:25.

Broadcasters weren't allowed into the speech,

:57:26.:57:32.

but this was captured on a camera phone.

:57:33.:57:37.

And we have to recognise actually for grammars, in terms of

:57:38.:57:40.

disadvantaged children, that they have, they really

:57:41.:57:43.

do help them close the attainment gap.

:57:44.:57:46.

And at the same time we should recognise that

:57:47.:57:48.

..That parents also want choice for their children and that

:57:49.:57:55.

those schools are often very oversubscribed.

:57:56.:58:03.

I suppose it is a rite of passage for and education secretaries to

:58:04.:58:11.

have this at a head teachers conference book the head are usually

:58:12.:58:16.

more polite. Isn't part of the problem, whether one is for or

:58:17.:58:20.

against the expansion of grammar schools, the government plans are

:58:21.:58:26.

complicated, you cannot sum them up in a sentence. The proof of that is

:58:27.:58:30.

they can still get away with denying they are expanding grammar schools.

:58:31.:58:34.

They will find an alternative formulation because it is not as

:58:35.:58:37.

simple as a brute creation of what we used to know is grammar schools

:58:38.:58:41.

with the absolute cut-off of the 11 plus. I am surprised how easy they

:58:42.:58:49.

found it politically. We saw the clip of Justine Greening being

:58:50.:58:53.

jeered a little bit but in the grand scheme, compared to another

:58:54.:58:56.

government trying this idea a decade ago they have got away with it

:58:57.:59:01.

easily and I think what is happening is a perverse consequence of Brexit

:59:02.:59:04.

and the media attention on Brexit, the government of the day can just

:59:05.:59:09.

about get away with slightly more contentious domestic policies on the

:59:10.:59:13.

correct assumption we will be too busy investing our attention in

:59:14.:59:19.

Article 50 and two years of negotiations, WTO terms at

:59:20.:59:23.

everything we have been discussing. I wonder if after grammar schools

:59:24.:59:27.

there will be examples of contentious domestic policies

:59:28.:59:31.

Theresa May can slide in stock because Brexit sucks the life out,

:59:32.:59:39.

takes the attention away. You are a supporter. Broadly. Are you happy

:59:40.:59:44.

with the government approach? They need to have more gumption and stop

:59:45.:59:50.

being apologetic. It is a bazaar area of public policy where we judge

:59:51.:59:53.

the policy on grammar schools based on what it does for children whose

:59:54.:59:58.

parents are unemployed, living on sink estates in Liverpool. It is

:59:59.:00:03.

absurd, we don't judge any other policy like that. It is simple, not

:00:04.:00:07.

contentious, people who are not sure, ask them if they would apply

:00:08.:00:12.

to send their child there, six out of ten said they would. Parents want

:00:13.:00:19.

good schools for their children, we should have appropriate education

:00:20.:00:21.

and they should be straightforward, this is about the future of the

:00:22.:00:25.

economy and we need bright children to get education at the highest

:00:26.:00:28.

level, education for academically bright children. It is supposed to

:00:29.:00:35.

be a signature policy of the Theresa May administration that marks a

:00:36.:00:37.

government different from David Cameron's government who did not go

:00:38.:00:42.

down this road. The signature is pretty blurred, it is hard to read.

:00:43.:00:46.

It is. She is trying to address concerns about those who fail to get

:00:47.:00:54.

into these selective schools and tried to targeted in poorer areas

:00:55.:00:57.

and the rest of it. She will probably come across so many

:00:58.:01:01.

obstacles. It is not clear what form it will take in the end. It is

:01:02.:01:05.

really an example of a signature policy not fully thought through. I

:01:06.:01:08.

think it was one of her first announcements. It was. It surprised

:01:09.:01:13.

everybody. Surprised at the speed and pace at which they were planning

:01:14.:01:18.

to go. Ever since, there have been qualifications and hesitations en

:01:19.:01:22.

route with good cause, in my view. I disagree with Juliet that this is...

:01:23.:01:26.

We all want good schools but if you don't get in there and you end up in

:01:27.:01:30.

a less good school. They already do that. We have selection based on the

:01:31.:01:33.

income of parents getting into a good catchment area, based on the

:01:34.:01:37.

faith of the parents. That becomes very attainable! I might been too

:01:38.:01:44.

shot run christenings for these. -- I have been.

:01:45.:01:46.

Now, you may remember this time last week we were talking

:01:47.:01:49.

about the extraordinary claims by US President Donald Trump,

:01:50.:01:51.

on Twitter of course, that Barack Obama had ordered

:01:52.:01:53.

And there was me thinking that wiretaps went out

:01:54.:01:57.

Is it legal for a sitting President to do so, he asked,

:01:58.:02:02.

concluding it was a "new low", and later comparing it to Watergate.

:02:03.:02:10.

Since then, the White House has been pressed to provide evidence for this

:02:11.:02:14.

It hasn't, but it seems it may have initially come from a report on a US

:02:15.:02:20.

website by the former Conservative MP Louise Mensch.

:02:21.:02:23.

She wrote that the FBI had been granted a warrant to intercept

:02:24.:02:26.

communications between Trump's campaign and Russia.

:02:27.:02:33.

Well, Louise Mensch joins us now from New York.

:02:34.:02:41.

Louise, you claimed in early November that the FBI had secured a

:02:42.:02:48.

court warrants to monitor communications between trump Tower

:02:49.:02:53.

in New York at two Russian banks. It's now four months later. Isn't it

:02:54.:02:56.

the case that nobody has proved the existence of this warrant?

:02:57.:03:01.

First of all, forgive me Andrew, one takes 1's life in one's hand when it

:03:02.:03:07.

is you but I have to correct your characterisation of my reporting. It

:03:08.:03:11.

is very important. I did not report that the FBI had a warrant to

:03:12.:03:16.

intercept anything or that Trump tower was any part of it. What I

:03:17.:03:20.

reported was that the FBI obtained a warrant is targeted on all

:03:21.:03:25.

communications between two Russian banks and were, therefore, allowed

:03:26.:03:28.

to examine US persons in the context of their investigation. What the

:03:29.:03:35.

Americans call legally incidental collection. I certainly didn't

:03:36.:03:40.

report that the warrant was able to intercept or that it had location

:03:41.:03:44.

basis, for example Trump tower. I just didn't report that. The reason

:03:45.:03:49.

that matters so much is that I now believe based on the President's

:03:50.:03:54.

reaction, there may well be a wiretap act Trump Tower. If so,

:03:55.:03:59.

Donald Trump has just tweeted out evidence in an ongoing criminal case

:04:00.:04:01.

that neither I nor anybody else reported. He is right about

:04:02.:04:05.

Watergate because he will have committed obstruction of justice

:04:06.:04:10.

directly from his Twitter account. Let me come back as thank you for

:04:11.:04:13.

clarifying. Let me come back to the question. -- and thank you. We have

:04:14.:04:21.

not yet got proof that this warrant exists, do we? No and we are most

:04:22.:04:25.

unlikely to get it because it would be a heinous crime for Donald Trump

:04:26.:04:29.

to reveal its existence. In America they call it a Glomar response. I

:04:30.:04:33.

can neither confirm nor deny. That is what all American officials will

:04:34.:04:37.

have to say legally. If you are looking for proof, you won't get it

:04:38.:04:41.

until and unless a court cases brought. But that doesn't mean it

:04:42.:04:46.

doesn't exist. The BBC validated this two months after me in their

:04:47.:04:50.

reporting by the journalist Paul Wood. The Guardian, they also

:04:51.:04:55.

separately from their own sources validated the existence of the

:04:56.:04:58.

warrant. If you are in America, you would know that CNN and others are

:04:59.:05:01.

reporting that the investigation in ongoing. Let me come onto the wider

:05:02.:05:05.

point. You believe the Trump campaign including the president

:05:06.:05:11.

were complicit with the Russians during the 2016 election campaign to

:05:12.:05:14.

such an extent that Mr Trump should be impeached. What evidence did you

:05:15.:05:15.

have? That is an enormous amount of

:05:16.:05:25.

evidence. You could start with him saying, hey, Russia, if you are

:05:26.:05:28.

listening, please release all the Hillary Clinton's e-mails. That's

:05:29.:05:33.

not evidence. I think it rather is, actually. Especially if you look at

:05:34.:05:36.

some of the evidence that exists on Twitter and elsewhere of people

:05:37.:05:41.

talking directly to his social media manager, Dan should be no and

:05:42.:05:44.

telling him to do that before it happened. There is a bit out there.

:05:45.:05:49.

The BBC itself reported that in April of last year, a six agency

:05:50.:05:54.

task force, not just the FBI, but the Treasury Department, was looking

:05:55.:05:57.

at this. I believe there is an enormous amount of evidence. And

:05:58.:06:01.

then there is the steel dossier which was included in an official

:06:02.:06:03.

report of the US intelligence committee. You've also ... Just to

:06:04.:06:12.

be clear, we don't have hard evidence yet whether this warrant

:06:13.:06:17.

exists. It may or may not. There is doubt about... There are claims

:06:18.:06:20.

about whether there is evidence about Mr Trump and the Russians.

:06:21.:06:23.

That is another matter. You claimed that President Putin had Andrew

:06:24.:06:30.

Breitbart murdered to pave the way for Steve Bannon to play a key role

:06:31.:06:35.

in the Trump administration. I haven't. You said that Steve Bannon

:06:36.:06:40.

is behind bomb threats to Jewish community centres. Aren't you in

:06:41.:06:45.

danger of just peddling wild conspiracy theories? No. Festival, I

:06:46.:06:49.

haven't. No matter how many times people say this, it's not going to

:06:50.:06:53.

be true -- first of all. I said in twitter I believe that to be the

:06:54.:06:56.

case about the murder of Andrew Breitbart. You believe President

:06:57.:07:03.

Putin murdered him. I didn't! You said I reported it, but I believed

:07:04.:07:07.

it. You put it on twitter that you believed it but you don't have a

:07:08.:07:13.

shred of evidence. I do. Indeed, I know made assertions. What is the

:07:14.:07:17.

evidence that Mr Putin murdered Andrew Breitbart? I said I believe

:07:18.:07:23.

it. You may believe there are fairies at the bottom of your

:07:24.:07:26.

garden, it doesn't make it true. I may indeed. And if I say so, that's

:07:27.:07:32.

my belief. If I say I am reporting, as I did with the Fisa warrant

:07:33.:07:39.

exists, I have a basis in fact. They believe is just a belief. I know you

:07:40.:07:46.

are relatively new to journalism. Let me get the rules right. Andrew,

:07:47.:07:52.

jealousy is not your colour... If it is twitter, we don't believe it but

:07:53.:07:56.

if it is on your website, we should believe it? If I report something

:07:57.:08:01.

and I say this happened, then I am making an assertion. If I describe a

:08:02.:08:05.

belief, I am describing a belief. Subtlety may be a little difficult

:08:06.:08:11.

for you... No, no. If you want to be a journalist, beliefs have to be

:08:12.:08:17.

backed up with evidence. Really? Do you have a faith? It's not a matter

:08:18.:08:21.

of faith, maybe in your case, that President Putin murdered Andrew

:08:22.:08:27.

Breitbart. A belief and a report at two different things and no matter

:08:28.:08:30.

how often you say that they are the same, they will never be the same.

:08:31.:08:35.

You've said in today's Sunday Times here in London that you've turned

:08:36.:08:43.

into" a temporary superpower" where you "See things really clearly".

:08:44.:08:49.

Have you become delusional? No. I am describing a biological basis for

:08:50.:08:54.

ADHD, which I have. As any of your viewers who are doctors will know.

:08:55.:08:57.

It provides people with unfortunately a lot of scattered

:08:58.:09:01.

focus, they are very messy and absent-minded but when they are

:09:02.:09:04.

interested in things and they have ADHD they can have a condition which

:09:05.:09:08.

is hyper focus. You concentrate very hard on a given subject and you can

:09:09.:09:11.

see patterns and connections. That is biological. Thank you for

:09:12.:09:18.

explaining that. And for getting up early in New York. The first time

:09:19.:09:23.

ever I have interviewed a temporary superpower. Thank you. You are so

:09:24.:09:27.

lucky! You are so lucky! I don't think it's going to happen again.

:09:28.:09:31.

Please don't ask us to comment on that interview! I will not ask you,

:09:32.:09:35.

viewers will make up their own minds. Let's come back to be more

:09:36.:09:40.

mundane world of Article 50. Stop the killing!

:09:41.:09:44.

Will it get through at the government wanted it? Without the

:09:45.:09:49.

Lords amendment falling by the way that? I am sure the Lord will not

:09:50.:09:53.

try to ping-pong this back and forth. So we are at the end of this

:09:54.:09:56.

particular legislative phase. The fact that all three Brexit Cabinet

:09:57.:10:00.

ministers, number ten often don't like one of them going out on a

:10:01.:10:04.

broadcast interview on a Sunday, they've all been out and about. That

:10:05.:10:08.

suggests to me they are working on the assumption it will be triggered

:10:09.:10:12.

this week. This week. The negotiations will begin or at least

:10:13.:10:17.

the process begins. The negotiation process may be difficult, given all

:10:18.:10:20.

of the European elections. The Dutch this week. And then the French and

:10:21.:10:26.

maybe the Italians and certainly the Germans by the end of September,

:10:27.:10:29.

which is less predictable than it was. Given all that, what did you

:10:30.:10:34.

make of Anna Soubry's claim, Viacom on her part, that we may just end up

:10:35.:10:38.

crashing out in six months question -- fear on her part. It was not just

:10:39.:10:44.

that that we made that deliberately organising. I want us to get on with

:10:45.:10:46.

the deals. Everyone knows a good deal is the

:10:47.:10:54.

best option. Who knows what is going to be on the table when we finally

:10:55.:10:58.

go out? Fascinatingly, the demand for some money back, given the

:10:59.:11:04.

amount of money... Net gains and net costs in terms of us leaving for the

:11:05.:11:07.

EU. It is all to play for. That will be a possible early grounds for a

:11:08.:11:14.

confrontation between the UK and the EU. My understanding is that they

:11:15.:11:20.

expect to do a deal on reciprocal rights of EU nationals, EU nationals

:11:21.:11:23.

here, UK citizens there, quite quickly. They want to clear that up

:11:24.:11:27.

and that will be done. Then they will hit this problem that the EU

:11:28.:11:31.

will be saying you've got to agree the divorce Bill first before we

:11:32.:11:36.

talk about the free trade bill. David Davis saying quite clearly,

:11:37.:11:39.

no, they go together because of the size of the bill. It will be

:11:40.:11:44.

determined, in our part, by how good the access will be. The mutual

:11:45.:11:48.

recognition of EU residents' rights is no trouble. A huge amount of fuss

:11:49.:11:52.

is attracted to that subject but it is the easiest thing to deal with,

:11:53.:11:56.

as is free movement for tourists. Money is what will make it

:11:57.:11:59.

incredibly acrimonious. Incredibly quickly. I imagine the dominant

:12:00.:12:02.

story in the summer will be all about that. This was Anna Soubry's

:12:03.:12:06.

implication, members of the governors could strongly argue,

:12:07.:12:11.

things are so poisonous and so unpleasant at the moment, the

:12:12.:12:14.

dealers are advancing -- members of the government. Why not call it a

:12:15.:12:18.

day and go out on WTO terms while public opinion is still in that

:12:19.:12:22.

direction in that Eurosceptic direction? No buyers' remorse about

:12:23.:12:26.

last year's referendum. The longer they leave it, view more opportunity

:12:27.:12:30.

there is for some kind of public resistance and change of mind to

:12:31.:12:34.

take place. The longer believe it, the more people who voted for Brexit

:12:35.:12:38.

and people who voted Remain and think we didn't get world War three

:12:39.:12:42.

will start being quite angry with the EU for not agreeing a deal. In

:12:43.:12:46.

terms of the rights of EU nationals he and Brits abroad, by all

:12:47.:12:52.

accounts, 26 of the 27 have agreed individually. Angela Merkel is the

:12:53.:12:55.

only person who has held that up. That will be dealt with in a matter

:12:56.:12:59.

of days. The chances of a deal being done is likely but in ten seconds...

:13:00.:13:05.

It would not be a bad bet to protect your on something not happening, you

:13:06.:13:08.

might get pretty good odds? The odds are going up that a deal doesn't

:13:09.:13:13.

happen. But, as I said earlier, the House of Commons will not endorse no

:13:14.:13:19.

deal. We are either in an early election or she has to go back

:13:20.:13:24.

again. Either way, you will need us! We will be back at noon tomorrow on

:13:25.:13:28.

BBC Two ahead of what looks like being a big week in politics. We

:13:29.:13:31.

will be back here same time, same place.

:13:32.:13:34.

Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:35.:13:39.

Andrew Neil and Arwyn Jones with the latest political news, interviews and debate. Andrew discusses the Brexit bill with UKIP's Nigel Farage and Conservative MP Anna Soubry. Guests include Matthew Taylor of the Independent Review of Employment Practices and journalist Louise Mensch. On the political panel are Janan Ganesh, Julia Hartley-Brewer and Steve Richards.