20/11/2016 The Papers

We'll be taking a look at tomorrow mornings papers in a moment, first,

11 crew members are airlifted from a 200-meter cargo ship,

that lost power off the coast of Dover, as Storm Angus batters

the south coast of England with high wind and heavy rain.

After months of speculation, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel

confirms that she will seek a fourth term in office.

Elections will take place next year.

Chancellor Philip Hammond will announce an extra ?1.3 billion

to improve Britain's roads during his Autumn

More than 120 people are killed and 100 others left injured

after a passenger train derails in northern India.

And Andy Murray is crowned No.1 male tennis

player in the world after he beats five-time

champion Novak Djokovic, and wins his first ATP

Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be

With me are the Broadcaster Natalie Haynes - and the Independent's

Deputy Political Editor, Rob Merrick.

Natalie with her weather seemed jumper. Rob, where is yours? Let's

look at,'s from pages. The Daily Telegraph leads

with Prime Minister Theresa May's tax pledge to win back business,

and she'll offer a better New Push for 'clean break' EU exit

reports the Daily Express, as 70 Eurosceptic MPs join forces

over fears that Remain campaigners could stop the UK from leaving

Brussels. Blair is back in politics

reports the Metro. He's setting up a new institute, to

'fill a hole' in British politics. And a third of young homeless people

are turned away by councils Let's have a look ahead to the

Autumn Statement on Wednesday. The i has the headline Osborne austerity

continues in Brexit budget. How much is really in this budget? He talked

about giving us headroom for a bumpy time. Anyone who sees this rampage

and has been following the news in recent weeks will be confused. They

will have thought they learned Wednesday as opposed to the budget

to reset economic policy, to finally dump George Osborne's legacy that

Theresa May is desperate to help struggling families. This headline

suggests the austerity of Osborne will continue. It tells us either

this is expectation management ahead of Wednesday and perhaps the

Chancellor thinks expectations are running ahead of themselves and he

needs to slow things down. Or, the other explanation is there is a

battle that has gone on, is going on between number ten and number 11.

The Prime Minister desperate to help these just about managing families

or the JAMS. The Chancellor, if he has any money to spend wants to

spend it on investment and better transport or other things that would

improve Britain's dreadful productivity and prepare for Brexit.

There does seem to be a battle going on in the background. We need to be

match fit. ?1 billion for the road network, which Labour are not

impressed with? Yes. The issue with roads is no matter how much money

you throw at them they will somehow gobble up more money, that is their

USP. Made worse by the fact every time you spend money on road it

involves roadworks which makes everyone furious. Probably the most

annoying way you can spare money, in order to antagonise most people. I

feel very much like this is expectation management. We were

talking before we came in, sorry to spoil the magic, talking and saying

it does feel like they have been building and don't worry, don't

worry, it will be fine. And now there is some back slap, just

kidding everyone, and a very small bang on Wednesday when it comes,

everyone can be relieved. For everyone playing budget bingo I hope

JAMS is at the top of your card. It makes an important point on the

front, what is coming down the line, unless the Chancellor changes tack,

are huge welfare cuts, huge cuts to people on low income and disabled

people, a four dear benefit freeze. Whatever goodies he might be able to

afford, a few quid off air passenger duty, that is scarcely going to

compensate for the enormous sums of money that poor people are set to

lose. That brings us nicely to the lead in the Guardian. Here we have

them again, the just about managing households. A really high figure,

?2500 a year that this can consultancy firm said the families

could be missing out on? Yes, and that looking at all kinds of things,

including cuts to housing benefit and... And benefit caps and freezes

and bedroom taxes, as well as universal tax credit and everything

else. ?2500 a year is pretty serious money for most of us, I think, apart

from people earning incredibly well. And if you are on that border

between managing and not managing the ?2500 a year is serious money.

Would research like that change anything before Wednesday? To change

it would involve enormous sums of money. This is why George Osborne

put it in the budget in the first place, because that is way he could

make his savings, the only place he could make savings. Billions and

billions of pounds the government simply doesn't have. The other thing

we will learn on Wednesday is the size of the Black hole to come

because of Brexit. On Wednesday even the biggest fantasist in the Brexit

Camp Nou think we are out of the woods and there is no economic

damage from the vote in June will surely have to make some

concessions, because the economy will slow down next year, as the

forecaster said, and that will open up a huge black hole. The government

will have less money, not more money. That there were contradictory

figures, which lead us to believe things are not so bad. Unemployment

figures are better than they have been in ages. There are those in

favour of Brexit who can say, the wheels have come off like people

said they would. Some people were expecting it to be much worse by

now, won't they? I think there's a difference in the forecast made by

economists and the forecasts made by George Osborne. George Osborne mate

and crazy forecasts, that there would be an instant deep recession

and there would have to be an emergency budget. I do believe

that I don't think most people did. The economic forecasts are very

different, people will stop spending because of a nervousness about

Brexit. Companies. Investing because of the same nervousness. That is

still most likely. The Daily Telegraph. Nicolas Sarkozy suffers

shock defeat in the first round of the French primaries. We were saying

it surprising that this story isn't an more front pages. This is the

exercise to select the centre-right candidate who will have to take on

Marine le Pen from the National front next year. Yes, despite the

fact of the referendum, France is quite near and it does have a bit of

an impact on us, who's in charge of France. Like you say, on the front

of every paper... But perhaps people went to press too early, perhaps

these results came in quite late. Yes, the person who has defeated

Nicolas Sarkozy is Francois Fillon, described by the Daily Telegraph as

a Thatcherite with a Welsh wife. Glorious turn of phrase. I think we

are given to understand that perhaps he is a fan, but perhaps not as

much, perhaps just likes one Welsh person and married her. As a

Welshman I was excited. This was your moment! We never get any Welsh

prime ministers in this country. But apparently, despite his love for his

wife, doesn't like the rest of us Brits very much. I think he's on

record saying it must be a hard Brexit unless Britain makes

concessions in the talks. He wants to ban British MEPs from voting

straightaway, wants the deal done fast. Doesn't sound like there will

be any concessions from Paris if he wins, two Theresa May. If he doesn't

win, and are Marine le Pen does when... -- win. What's interesting

about Nicolas Sarkozy is he moved to the writing pursuit of the popular

vote and it didn't work, in this case, when it comes to being

selected for the party? What we have to appreciate is the theme in 2016,

which looks like carrying into 2017, the phrase shock defeat is no longer

usable, pretty much by definition if it is a shock to this vision it

should have been what we were expecting to happen. I think you are

right. -- if it is a shock decision. I was talking to poster from Germany

today saying he could not predict what was going to happen. According

to the metro, Tony Blair back in politics because Jeremy Corbyn is a

nutter and Theresa May is a lightweight. To what extent is he

really coming back into politics? I thought you are going to do what

extent is he a nutter and she a lightweight! LAUGHTER

That our libel laws. An eye-catching headline. Perhaps people think, what

seat is he running for, will he be my MP Chris Wratt the answer is no.

There is no suggestion he will return to front line politics, but

he wants to dip his toe in the water, to the extent of setting up a

new commission, some sort of think tank to be more closely involved in

British politics from that sort of angle to either stop Brexit or amend

Brexit. He thinks Brexit will be a disaster. He thinks he even has

allies on the conservative side to work behind the scenes. Perhaps he

had spoken to George Osborne. What will people think of this?

Presumably they will think he is the most deluded person in the country,

as people's minds were made up about Tony Blair a long time ago and not

very favourably. Or who knows, maybe there are people out there who are

so disillusioned with politics as it currently is, they can forget Tony

Blair's failings and maybe even look back fondly to aspects of his rule.

Time will tell. Some people would think anything he goes near would

not help the people he's trying to help? Yes, I think that's probably

true. I think he has a slight, slight, meze ionic attitude to the

world. I think he goes, there is a problem, I could fix this and

launches himself at it. Which in some ways is proactive and exactly

what we would like to be happening, as opposed to everyone sitting

around and claim this is terrible, this Brexit. Maybe if we sit here

long enough it will be fine. But I think it is rarely the right answer

when he makes that choice. How would he do any of that from within an

institute he has set up? It doesn't sound like a proactive place to be

doing things. Best case scenario if you could get people onto the BBC to

offer an alternative opinion, to do a bit of shaping of the public

debate. I feel like public debate is probably moving in the direction

it's going to move in already. He's a fantastic orator, even his

greatest critics would have to concede that. He has an incredible

capacity for persuasion but I think he comes with too much baggage,

doesn't he? Yes. I suggested before maybe some people would change their

minds if they are really depressed about politics in the way it stands.

But the headline is incorrect, is it? He's not going to be back in

politics in the way we normally understand it. But he clearly wants

to play some sort of role, trying to change events to some degree. If you

want to be rehabilitated into the Labour Party you have to dance!

That's true. Try the tango. The Telegraph. British children bottom

of world fitness league. This makes some very depressing reading. Where

does this come from? Research on 38 countries for the amount of physical

activity done by children. England and Wales finished below the likes

of Poland, Slovenia and Venezuela. They gave us a D minus. They said

only about 15% of girls aged 11-15 are doing the one hour a day of

moderate physical activity, which is recommended. If you think the miners

is bad, you need to also think about Scotland, which gets an F. This

comparison was done a couple of years ago, 2014. I think England had

a seedy rating then, so things seem to be getting worse. At a particular

point in HR's life it seems to get worse? It is disheartening. The use

of the phrase bottom of the world because of where the line break is.

The fitness league is only 38 countries, so not literally at the

bottom of the world, although it does feel a bit like it when you

read the numbers, which is that one in five primary school children,

when they start primary school one in ten is obese, by the time they

leave its one in five. 20%. That is a huge number. 15% of girls are

doing exercise of an hour a day. 20% of children are already obese at 11.

That seems like a terrifying number. We keep reading the almost packed

phrase that this is the generation that will die before the age their

parents reach, but I'm not sure how we're still saying that kind of

glibly. It's a horrifying statistic. The suggestion is families need to

make a change to everyday routines, to build in more exercise, is that

right? They are calling it a super drug. If it were a drug and you

could bottle it, they are saying this would be the pill. Exercise,

exercise, exercise. It seems we have had many years looking at behaviour

and the figures are getting worse. One head teacher introduced a one

mile run every day for pupils. That has got some publicity, some praise.

A few of the schools are copying it, but it doesn't seem to be spreading

widely. The problem is our school curriculum is jam-packed with

teaching the stuff that's really important, literacy and numeracy,

but perhaps more space needs to be found for physical activity and

forced at school, the only place where you can enforce it. A mile...

I'm not saying it's not far but a lot less than an hour unless you go

extremely slowly, it won't take you on our. Even I might manage it.

Let's stay with the Telegraph this unhappy news. Keeping his crown.

Andy Murray. You watched the match? I did. To be honest it was very

stressful flipping between that and the Strictly results. He is my total

hero, after my hero because of his complete deadpan expression and

refusal to answer facile questions with facile replies but always super

serious and undermining. Look how happy he looks. He was so exhausted.

He played Raonic for three hours and 30 minutes yesterday, the two

longest ever 80 port -- 80 port -- ATP tour matches. He played both of

them. It was astonishing. And against Djokovic to achieve this,

it's not just anybody. It is the world number two. It would have been

unthinkable just a few years ago, let alone when I was growing up,

that there could be a British number one. That is the scale of his

achievement. I think we are in awe of his physical capabilities to do

it day after day. I thought Djokovic would win today and it turned out to

be quite easy. The number two, three, four and five players in the

world because he is number one, it's amazing. You know your stuff! I love

him, mock me not. That's it for The Papers

for this hour. Don't forget all the front pages

are online on the BBC News website where you can read a detailed review

of the papers. You can see a repeat of this

addition as well. But don't wait for that, we will be back live in just

under one hour's time. Coming up next -

it's Meet the Author. The rise of the Irish writer

Cecelia Ahern has been