08/12/2015 World Business Report


08/12/2015

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Those are the latest headlines from BBC World News.

:00:00.:00:00.

Now for the latest financial news, with Sally and

:00:00.:00:00.

Exports and imports both fell in November, as consumers fail to

:00:00.:00:23.

What can the government do now to boost domestic demand?

:00:24.:00:28.

Overcapacity and slowing global trade results in a giant merger

:00:29.:00:32.

Also in the programme: Revised figures from Japan

:00:33.:00:47.

China has released its latest set of trade numbers.

:00:48.:01:01.

Both exports and imports declined in November, compared with

:01:02.:01:03.

The big question now is whether or not the cooling economy

:01:04.:01:07.

will face a hard or soft landing in the coming months and years.

:01:08.:01:12.

Chinese trade last year was worth $4.3 trillion

:01:13.:01:17.

making it the world's largest trader, a title it took

:01:18.:01:19.

Those figures disguise a big problem though.

:01:20.:01:25.

China saw imports drop for a record 13th month in a row

:01:26.:01:29.

in November, down 8.7% on the same time a year before.

:01:30.:01:34.

The falling import numbers suggest domestic demand is not as strong

:01:35.:01:36.

And, as you can see here, the rate of Chinese growth has been

:01:37.:01:54.

coming down from the heady heights of over 12% in 2010 to less than 7%

:01:55.:01:57.

The Chinese government is attempting to shift the economy to one that is

:01:58.:02:07.

fuelled by consumer demand as seen in the west.

:02:08.:02:13.

-- West. However, these figures demonstrate this is not

:02:14.:02:16.

So, is China now running out of options to prevent a hard landing?

:02:17.:02:20.

Our corrrespondent in Beijing is Celia Hatton.

:02:21.:02:26.

Nice to see you. Give us a bit more detail on the November numbers. What

:02:27.:02:34.

do they tell us? The numbers tell us it is basically a continuation in

:02:35.:02:38.

the pattern that we have been seeing for the past year. A continued

:02:39.:02:45.

decline in the numbers. It should be said that these numbers weren't as

:02:46.:02:48.

low as economists had feared, although it depends on whether you

:02:49.:02:52.

take these numbers at face value. Some analysts believe the real

:02:53.:02:55.

number is are couple of percentage points lower than reported by the

:02:56.:02:59.

Chinese government. So there is some worry that these numbers continue to

:03:00.:03:04.

be dropping. Some analyst reports that I read today predict that these

:03:05.:03:07.

numbers will continue to drop for perhaps the next 18 months. What

:03:08.:03:12.

will the government do next? It has tried many things, like interest

:03:13.:03:18.

rate cuts, various other measures. Some things have been successful,

:03:19.:03:21.

like cutting taxes on the purchasing of cars. That was quite a spike in

:03:22.:03:27.

car sales in November. Absolutely. So the government cut taxes by half

:03:28.:03:33.

on small automobiles and that led to an 18% boost in sales in November.

:03:34.:03:37.

So, some believe that the government will continue to participate in

:03:38.:03:43.

these tax cuts. Of course we've also seen interest rate cuts and we have

:03:44.:03:47.

seen six so by this year and some are predicting who will see another

:03:48.:03:51.

one later this month. And of course there is expected to be more

:03:52.:03:55.

stimulus spending by the government. This is a bit of a double-edged

:03:56.:03:59.

sword. Local governments in China have gotten themselves into some hot

:04:00.:04:03.

water in the past I spending money on projects that are ill-advised and

:04:04.:04:09.

defended government, local governments, get into this terrible

:04:10.:04:13.

cycle of bad loans, for example. So, stimulus spending is all worry

:04:14.:04:20.

semitone. What they will continue to try to boost the economy. -- is

:04:21.:04:28.

worrisome in China. It will wait for the economy to shift its focus from

:04:29.:04:32.

exports and manufacturing towards a more domestic demand. What is

:04:33.:04:40.

sentiment like? We talk about how China is slowing, but what do the

:04:41.:04:44.

Chinese people feel? It is all about confidence about the future, many

:04:45.:04:48.

economists argue, in terms of viewing future growth? Well, many

:04:49.:04:56.

people in China are concerned. They see the same numbers that we see.

:04:57.:05:02.

They see that manufacturing is slow, they see continued concerns over

:05:03.:05:04.

paying for things like healthcare and education. On continuing trend

:05:05.:05:11.

is China is that saving rates are very high. Chinese people are

:05:12.:05:16.

traditionally saving much more than people in Western countries. But

:05:17.:05:21.

that's because many people are concerned that might not have the

:05:22.:05:23.

government to help them with in-flight retirement and healthcare

:05:24.:05:33.

in the future. People are concerned, especially when it comes to thing

:05:34.:05:36.

for graduate employment and making sure young people can find jobs.

:05:37.:05:42.

Thank you so much. Also illustrating the other story in the day's news,

:05:43.:05:47.

regarding the problem with smog. We will talk about that later.

:05:48.:05:52.

Internet firms including the likes of Google and Amazon,

:05:53.:05:55.

operating in the EU, will be forced to report serious security breaches

:05:56.:05:58.

According to the Reuters news agency, EU countries and lawmakers

:05:59.:06:02.

have agreed reporting obligations for

:06:03.:06:03.

companies in critical sectors such as transport, energy and finance.

:06:04.:06:09.

The price of oil has fallen to its lowest level since 2009 as global

:06:10.:06:12.

The price of West Texas crude sank to $37.65 a barrel,

:06:13.:06:18.

a drop of 5.8%, while Brent Crude fell 5.3% to $40.73 a barrel.

:06:19.:06:25.

The slumping price comes as OPEC, a group of

:06:26.:06:28.

the largest oil producing nations, refused to cut oil production.

:06:29.:06:36.

Again, something we will comment on when we come to the papers. Now

:06:37.:06:42.

let's talk about a big merger on the cards in a global shipping industry.

:06:43.:06:46.

In a $2.4 billion deal, France's CMA CGM has agreed to buy

:06:47.:06:49.

the Singapore-based Neptune Orient Lines.

:06:50.:06:55.

If it gets the nod from regulators it could be the biggest deal

:06:56.:06:58.

in almost a decade in a sector struggling with slower global trade.

:06:59.:07:01.

Our Asia Business correspondent Karishma Vaswani has the details.

:07:02.:07:05.

This is one of Asia's easiest ports and a major player that has helped

:07:06.:07:11.

Singapore turn into a global trading and shipping hub is Neptune Orient

:07:12.:07:18.

Lines. It was started in 1968, originally as Singapore's national

:07:19.:07:22.

shipping line. Today it is one of the world's largest. 92 vessels

:07:23.:07:28.

servicing many ports around the world. But over the last few years

:07:29.:07:33.

it has racked up $4 billion in debt. No surprise then that Neptune Orient

:07:34.:07:40.

Lines has been looking for a suitor. For NOL -- it require significant

:07:41.:07:51.

investment. We need to improve Alp competitive position and stay

:07:52.:07:57.

competitive in this industry. NOL must be willing to take the capital

:07:58.:08:01.

investment to stay in the game. That's despite the weak conditions

:08:02.:08:07.

in the industry. We operate in a very fragmented world, with many

:08:08.:08:10.

players. The industry as a whole suffers from volatile freight

:08:11.:08:18.

trades. In this context, and as mentioned, we believe that scale is

:08:19.:08:21.

more critical than ever to ensure profitable growth. Now, this deal

:08:22.:08:26.

could be one of the biggest ever in the global shipping industry.

:08:27.:08:31.

Companies have been under pressure to cut costs, sell their assets and

:08:32.:08:36.

merge. And with predictions that next year's economic output will be

:08:37.:08:39.

even worse than next year, expect more consolidation to come.

:08:40.:08:44.

Japan has released revised growth numbers for the third quarter

:08:45.:08:48.

of the year, showing the economy grew by 0.3% from July to September.

:08:49.:08:56.

It thought it contracted, so this is a big relief for the Japanese

:08:57.:09:04.

president Shinzo Abe, as we thought Japan was in recession in that time.

:09:05.:09:06.

Rico Hizon joins me now from Singapore.

:09:07.:09:10.

Point three of a %, but it makes all the difference! -- zero .3%. A big

:09:11.:09:20.

relief, dodging a recession. With the number, it offers a glimmer of

:09:21.:09:25.

hope for policymakers struggling to end years of stagnation. Capital

:09:26.:09:30.

expenditure was the key contributor to this upgrade, which is a welcome

:09:31.:09:38.

sign for the government, the pressuring of companies to invest

:09:39.:09:41.

more and put the economy on a sustained recovery path. The data

:09:42.:09:49.

may ease some pessimism over the outlook and allow the central bank

:09:50.:09:55.

to hold off on additional 80 is in measures, even as inflation slides

:09:56.:09:59.

further away from the 2% target. But there are sceptics who say don't

:10:00.:10:05.

read too much into this. The upgrade was amplified by a slower than

:10:06.:10:09.

expected fall in inventory, which works to push up growth, but

:10:10.:10:13.

suggests that companies are struggling to sell goods in the face

:10:14.:10:18.

of weak demand. Of course, apart from this GDP revision, some good

:10:19.:10:22.

news, especially from the trade front. Japan posted a surplus for

:10:23.:10:27.

the 16th straight month in October, as the trade balance swung to a

:10:28.:10:31.

surplus, which now stands at about $12 billion US. This might be the

:10:32.:10:35.

start of something good for the Japanese economy. Let's hope so!

:10:36.:10:39.

Thank you. These are the markets.

:10:40.:10:42.

Oil is still languishing at lows last seen in 2009. Asian stocks

:10:43.:10:50.

across the board are lower because of the China trade data. See you

:10:51.:10:53.

soon. Farmers need to dramatically cut

:10:54.:11:03.

the amount of antibiotics they use on their animals, because

:11:04.:11:07.

of the threat to human health,

:11:08.:11:11.

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