29/01/2016 World Business Report


29/01/2016

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Those are the latest headlines from BBC World News.

:00:00.:00:00.

Now for the latest financial news with

:00:00.:00:00.

As if China wasn't enough to worry about, could US be

:00:00.:00:21.

The latest growth numbers may add to fears

:00:22.:00:24.

Plus, hold onto your hats: Japan's central bank takes emergency action

:00:25.:00:33.

to stave off the effects of the global turmoil.

:00:34.:00:35.

It's introduced negative interest rates.

:00:36.:00:36.

In a moment, who'd be a central banker?

:00:37.:00:59.

Policy makers around the world are fast running out of ammunition.

:01:00.:01:02.

We start in the United States amid growing fears

:01:03.:01:10.

the world's number one economy is stalling badly, and could even be

:01:11.:01:13.

The latest growth figures are out in a few hours' time.

:01:14.:01:19.

They're being awaited anxiously by financial markets already badly

:01:20.:01:21.

I want to show you how things have been going downhill for the US.

:01:22.:01:35.

In the three months to June last year, the second quarter of 2015,

:01:36.:01:41.

the US economy was growing at a healthy annual rate of 3.9%.

:01:42.:01:44.

By the third quarter of 2015, the three months to September,

:01:45.:01:47.

Economist on average think that in the three months to the end

:01:48.:02:05.

of December, growth in the US economy slumped to just 0.8%.

:02:06.:02:11.

Some though think it could be closer to zero,

:02:12.:02:13.

as the global market turmoil takes its toll on people's confidence.

:02:14.:02:16.

A few even think the economy actually shrank in the last quarter.

:02:17.:02:31.

So is there a real risk of the US economy going into reverse, in other

:02:32.:02:35.

Our New York reporter Nada Tawfik has been been getting the views

:02:36.:02:40.

This shop has survived in competitive Manhattan for several

:02:41.:02:58.

years. It is the coldest months, and the Christmas shopping season drives

:02:59.:03:07.

sales. The co-owner, Adam, says that wasn't the case this year, leaving

:03:08.:03:15.

him with many unsold parkers. The warmest Christmas in history, it was

:03:16.:03:19.

70 degrees here and Christmas. That hurts our sales. The weaker pound

:03:20.:03:30.

means that fewer people come here, and that tends to be part of our

:03:31.:03:36.

customer base. Shopping districts have been a sea of for sale signs.

:03:37.:03:42.

The key question many are now asking is if this is a sign of trouble

:03:43.:03:49.

ahead. Many may think so when GDP figures for the final months of 2015

:03:50.:03:55.

are released, but not so, says Ellen set nav of Morgan Stanley. Not time

:03:56.:04:03.

to panic yet, saying that the economy completely fell on its face.

:04:04.:04:06.

That is what it will look like, but you have to look at the underlying

:04:07.:04:11.

details. No doubt that will really fan the flames of those recession

:04:12.:04:14.

fears, which have grown over the last several weeks. Adding to this,

:04:15.:04:21.

low gas prices means consumers spending more. So, you are not

:04:22.:04:28.

tempted to spend your money? No. I am in New York, I have to play

:04:29.:04:34.

smart. The money you save? I will put it in my pocket. America is

:04:35.:04:39.

still one of the bright spots in an otherwise gloomy global picture, but

:04:40.:04:43.

if consumers don't carry on spending, all of that could change.

:04:44.:04:48.

To Asia now where in the last hour or so the Bank of Japan has narrowly

:04:49.:04:52.

voted to introduce a negative interest rate policy.

:04:53.:04:54.

Effectively it will cost you 0.1 of a percent to deposit your money

:04:55.:04:57.

It hopes that will encourage commercial banks to lend more and

:04:58.:05:01.

Of course it's a response to the global market turmoil

:05:02.:05:04.

on the slowdown in China - that has rather torpedoed Japan's attempts to

:05:05.:05:08.

Mariko Oi is following the story for us in Singapore.

:05:09.:05:14.

This is Japan's central bank telling all the banks in Japan not to give

:05:15.:05:21.

their money to them, but to put it out and lend it to people and

:05:22.:05:26.

business. That is right, it is aimed at encouraging people and companies

:05:27.:05:30.

to start spending money again, because Japan's economy, while it

:05:31.:05:37.

was recovering gradually because of the economic policies of PM Shinzo

:05:38.:05:43.

Abe, known as Abenomics, recently it has been slowing down again,

:05:44.:05:45.

especially with the Chinese slowdown. The market turmoil has

:05:46.:05:52.

been perfect in the stock market as well. As recently as last week, the

:05:53.:05:58.

governor of the bank of Japan was believed to have ruled out the

:05:59.:06:01.

negative rates option, so it caught markets by surprise, within the

:06:02.:06:06.

Nikkei jumping 3% after the announcement. Japan has been

:06:07.:06:09.

thinking about this option since early 2000, but it has always

:06:10.:06:16.

decided against it. The European Central Bank has negative rates as

:06:17.:06:19.

well. These huge question marks over the

:06:20.:06:27.

health of the global economy are providing a major dilemma for the

:06:28.:06:30.

people in charge of the world's monetary policy, the central banks.

:06:31.:06:33.

Interest rates are already at rock bottom, so what ammunition do they

:06:34.:06:36.

have left? The Bank of Japan is not The Bank of Japan is not

:06:37.:06:46.

the only one being forced Earlier this week the

:06:47.:06:49.

US Federal Reserve said it was It is promising gradual

:06:50.:06:54.

adjustments to policy. But investors are betting interest

:06:55.:06:56.

rate rises are on hold for a while at least The Bank of England's Mark

:06:57.:06:59.

Carney has also been caught on the hop, having signalled that rates

:07:00.:07:03.

would start to rise this year. He described

:07:04.:07:09.

the current global economic climate as unforgiving, and ruled out

:07:10.:07:10.

an immediate rate rise in the UK. The head of the

:07:11.:07:13.

European Central Bank, Mario Draghi He says the bank will review

:07:14.:07:16.

and possibly reconsider monetary policy at its next meeting, that's

:07:17.:07:19.

been taken as a hint there could be To underline the hard time central

:07:20.:07:23.

bankers are having at the moment, at a speech in Germany this week

:07:24.:07:34.

Draghi hit out at critics who say The ECB is fulfilling its mandate.

:07:35.:08:10.

These figures do not stand up to scrutiny. The critics of our

:08:11.:08:15.

decisions have been proved wrong time and again.

:08:16.:08:17.

Our guest is from the Economist Intelligence Unit.

:08:18.:08:21.

Thank you for getting up at this terrible power. Is there a point

:08:22.:08:28.

about the critics to Mario Draghi? If they start turning on the

:08:29.:08:32.

printing press and pushing cheap money into the system, we have seen

:08:33.:08:36.

it with the US Federal Reserve, the bank of Japan, it is being suggested

:08:37.:08:40.

that in the long-term, those policies don't really work.

:08:41.:08:49.

Obviously, there are lots of actions, including the ECB and Bank

:08:50.:08:54.

of Japan, but they all face headwinds at the moment. It is a

:08:55.:08:57.

question of confidence. As much as they try to make money cheaper, with

:08:58.:09:02.

the economy slowing down there is an issue that people are just not

:09:03.:09:06.

confident enough to invest, because they see China slowing down and the

:09:07.:09:14.

global economy. Is it not some of the central banks' fault in the

:09:15.:09:17.

first place that we are seeing China slowdown? We printed all this free

:09:18.:09:24.

money, flooding China, which then built a lot, and now a lot of that

:09:25.:09:28.

money has drained back out and left some emerging economies in a dire

:09:29.:09:35.

state. It has created an awful lot of trouble, Andy quantitative easing

:09:36.:09:43.

is coming back, and there are consequences of that. But to deal

:09:44.:09:51.

with poor global growth prospects, you can't just rely on monetary

:09:52.:09:57.

policy alone. There is also fiscal policy and structural reforms, some

:09:58.:10:00.

of which are under way at the moment. They will take time, and

:10:01.:10:05.

people will say that some economies haven't done the proper reform. Can

:10:06.:10:13.

I ask you this, as a layman I am a bit alarmed. Either that all the

:10:14.:10:16.

numbers in the experts on what they are saying about 2016, I'm worried.

:10:17.:10:20.

If we head towards another sort of global crisis, a big slowdown, there

:10:21.:10:26.

are no more tools or ammunition left in these central bankers to fight.

:10:27.:10:29.

They have already used all of that up fighting their 2008 crisis.

:10:30.:10:36.

Absolutely, and that is why we need to rely on structural reforms and

:10:37.:10:39.

fiscal policy as well. They are a long time coming, so that doesn't

:10:40.:10:41.

bode well. Shares in Amazon tumbled

:10:42.:10:47.

in after-hours trading after results from the online retail

:10:48.:10:49.

giant disappointed Wall Street. Amazon racked up quarterly sales of

:10:50.:10:55.

more than $35 billion in the three months to December - up more

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than 20 per cent on the previous year - taking annual sales above 100

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billion for the first time.

:11:07.:11:13.

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