Browse content similar to 04/10/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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That's all from me. I'm going to have a break. Here is Sally. | :00:00. | :00:15. | |
Investors look for continuity, not change, but will the new boss | :00:16. | :00:18. | |
of India's central bank deliver today? | :00:19. | :00:23. | |
India's cheap labour and cheap parts means it's an attractive option | :00:24. | :00:28. | |
We have a special report from Chennai. | :00:29. | :00:34. | |
Also in the programme, if the monster-sized trade deal | :00:35. | :00:41. | |
between Europe and the US fails, who could benefit? | :00:42. | :00:43. | |
We'll talk you through the winners and losers. | :00:44. | :00:50. | |
In a few hours' time, the newly-appointed governor | :00:51. | :00:56. | |
of the Indian Central Bank, Urjit Patel, will make his first | :00:57. | :00:59. | |
As global growth stalls, amid fears over protectionism | :01:00. | :01:03. | |
and financial instability, India is seen as one of the few | :01:04. | :01:07. | |
bright spots in an otherwise gloomy picture. | :01:08. | :01:09. | |
In 2015, the Indian economy expanded by 7.6%, and earlier this year it | :01:10. | :01:12. | |
overtook China to become the fastest-growing major economy | :01:13. | :01:14. | |
One of the factors behind India's development is the country's | :01:15. | :01:23. | |
On average, India's population continues to get younger | :01:24. | :01:28. | |
By 2050, the UN estimates that it will have a working age population | :01:29. | :01:33. | |
That's over four times the size of the combined North | :01:34. | :01:37. | |
India may have cured the problem of runaway inflation, | :01:38. | :01:46. | |
but concerns still remain that India's banks have bad debts, | :01:47. | :01:49. | |
and that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's reform programme | :01:50. | :01:51. | |
With me is Fran Boait, Executive Director of the pressure | :01:52. | :01:57. | |
Good morning. Thank you for coming in. A new man in charge of the | :01:58. | :02:08. | |
central bank. Tell us about the differences, or will it be business | :02:09. | :02:13. | |
as usual? Well, one of the most exciting things about today's | :02:14. | :02:16. | |
announcement is that for the first time it is moving from a decision | :02:17. | :02:21. | |
taken by the Governor unilaterally to actually being a committee of | :02:22. | :02:24. | |
people, which is obviously a great step from having decision making | :02:25. | :02:30. | |
power of monetary policy decisions in one person, to a panel. That is a | :02:31. | :02:35. | |
positive step forward. However, looking at central banks in the UK, | :02:36. | :02:40. | |
the Bank of England, the bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, the | :02:41. | :02:44. | |
European Central Bank, just because you have a committee doesn't | :02:45. | :02:47. | |
necessarily mean that you get a diversity of thinking in terms of | :02:48. | :02:53. | |
monetary policy. I think there is an important point which is that, | :02:54. | :02:57. | |
globally, central banking faces kind of an intellectual crisis, and | :02:58. | :03:01. | |
monitor a policy isn't working with low interest rates. -- monastery | :03:02. | :03:07. | |
policy. As you say, we have all looked at central banks in recent | :03:08. | :03:11. | |
years to rescue economies, and to some degree they have, but some | :03:12. | :03:15. | |
would argue they have not. In the United States, for example, there | :03:16. | :03:19. | |
was a humongous Hunter Tootoo easing programme for a tremendous period of | :03:20. | :03:27. | |
time. Some would argue that has put the US into the place where they are | :03:28. | :03:30. | |
now, where they can put interest rates up and they are growing the | :03:31. | :03:34. | |
economy. But you have a different view on that? I would not argue that | :03:35. | :03:42. | |
quantitative easing was not necessary during the crisis years | :03:43. | :03:46. | |
ago, it may have been the best tool we had in a hurry, and the crisis | :03:47. | :03:50. | |
could have a worse without it. But it is a different position eight | :03:51. | :03:54. | |
years on, and we have just started this quantitative easing programme | :03:55. | :03:57. | |
in the UK, which will have negative side-effects. More and more | :03:58. | :04:02. | |
economists are pointing at the lack of demand around the world, the very | :04:03. | :04:05. | |
high levels of private debt, and saying that will interest rates and | :04:06. | :04:09. | |
quantitative easing do not work, and we need to be thinking better about | :04:10. | :04:13. | |
why the tools are on the table. In India, we were just talking through | :04:14. | :04:17. | |
some of the statistics, they have an enormous working population in the | :04:18. | :04:22. | |
future, which for places like Japan and other countries, that is their | :04:23. | :04:25. | |
challenge. It is a working population, it is very productive. | :04:26. | :04:29. | |
It was quite interesting as well is that that pop relation will have | :04:30. | :04:34. | |
more disposable income in India, which is quite exciting. The | :04:35. | :04:37. | |
standard of living is expected to improve. Therefore, I guess, the | :04:38. | :04:41. | |
central bank has challenges it needs to face in terms of how it steers | :04:42. | :04:45. | |
the Indian economy with, hopefully, more reform from Narendra Modi's | :04:46. | :04:51. | |
government. Definitely. India is in a very different position from the | :04:52. | :04:55. | |
UK, Japan, Australia, et cetera. If it does not want to go down the same | :04:56. | :04:59. | |
part of the more developed economies, the main thing is to | :05:00. | :05:03. | |
watch its debt, and where it is going. The problems that caused the | :05:04. | :05:07. | |
2008 crisis and the problem is that lots of other economies are pointing | :05:08. | :05:11. | |
out, it is too much bank lending going into the finance, insurance | :05:12. | :05:16. | |
and real estate sectors. Really, as long as the new governor keeps his | :05:17. | :05:22. | |
eye on money going into productive economies, India should be better | :05:23. | :05:25. | |
placed than the rest of us. We will keep watching it. Fran, thank you | :05:26. | :05:29. | |
for coming in and sharing your thoughts. And when we hear from the | :05:30. | :05:32. | |
central bank in India, we will probably also hear from our team in | :05:33. | :05:36. | |
Mumbai, who are across that for us today. We will keep you up-to-date. | :05:37. | :05:40. | |
As we mentioned, India is now overtaking China to become the | :05:41. | :05:43. | |
fastest-growing major economy in the world. | :05:44. | :05:44. | |
Trade has had a significant role to play in the country's development | :05:45. | :05:47. | |
and India has evolved into a major international hub for car makers. | :05:48. | :05:50. | |
As part of our week-long series on trade, Yogita Limaye sent this | :05:51. | :05:53. | |
report from near the southern Indian city of Chennai. | :05:54. | :05:58. | |
This woman lives with her mother in a small town near Chennai. She grew | :05:59. | :06:06. | |
up in a village and her father was a farmer. After he died, it was up to | :06:07. | :06:12. | |
her to put food on the table. By night, she helps out in the kitchen. | :06:13. | :06:17. | |
But by day, she is a technician at a car factory. She leads a small team | :06:18. | :06:23. | |
here, and cannot imagine a life without this job. TRANSLATION: I | :06:24. | :06:28. | |
would have had to work on a farm, and we would have had just enough | :06:29. | :06:33. | |
money for our day-to-day lives. I first started this job, because we | :06:34. | :06:37. | |
were poor, nobody gave us any respect. Now people say, she is | :06:38. | :06:40. | |
working a big company and making money. In fact, lots of people ask | :06:41. | :06:45. | |
me for jobs for their children to. Thousands of people are employed at | :06:46. | :06:50. | |
this plant. Each salary earned helps keep a home running. Hundreds of | :06:51. | :06:57. | |
cars are made here every day. They are sold across India, and nearly | :06:58. | :07:04. | |
half of them are exported. This car is being loaded onto a truck, from | :07:05. | :07:08. | |
where it will be taken to be Chennai port on India's eastern coast to be | :07:09. | :07:13. | |
sold overseas. Cars that are made here I sent to more than 100 | :07:14. | :07:17. | |
countries, and the Western world is a big market. Lots of jobs in the | :07:18. | :07:22. | |
factory depend on exports. Like this car maker, several other foreign | :07:23. | :07:25. | |
brands have set up shop in Chennai. There are challengers. Inadequate | :07:26. | :07:31. | |
infrastructure, and India's famed bureaucracy. But there are big | :07:32. | :07:37. | |
advantages to. India is a cost competitive country. That means | :07:38. | :07:42. | |
labour is relatively cheap compared to other countries, and it also | :07:43. | :07:45. | |
means we can get parts relatively cheaply. In other words, we can make | :07:46. | :07:50. | |
cars here with a total delivered cost of the vehicles being more | :07:51. | :07:53. | |
competitive than, perhaps, Western Europe or North America or Japan. If | :07:54. | :08:00. | |
more factories open in India, and it sells more to the world, the faster | :08:01. | :08:06. | |
it economy will grow. For many of these workers, it could be a chance | :08:07. | :08:11. | |
to grow as well, from being makers of cars to perhaps someday be in | :08:12. | :08:13. | |
buyers. -- being buyers. Over in New York, policymakers | :08:14. | :08:18. | |
from the US and EU are in talks over the Transatlantic Trade | :08:19. | :08:22. | |
and Investment Partnership. The landmark TTIP agreement aims | :08:23. | :08:24. | |
to provide a boost to economic growth by reducing trade barriers, | :08:25. | :08:27. | |
but there are fears it may be delayed as opposition mounts on both | :08:28. | :08:30. | |
sides of the Atlantic. Let's cross over to | :08:31. | :08:33. | |
Rico Hizon in Singapore. Good morning. All good afternoon, as | :08:34. | :08:52. | |
the case might be. Tell us more? Well, you know what, the view of | :08:53. | :08:57. | |
some experts is that if the TTIP does not materialise, Asia will be | :08:58. | :09:05. | |
the clear winner. It does if it is signed, Asian analysts believe many | :09:06. | :09:08. | |
companies you may have to switch their production processes and | :09:09. | :09:11. | |
create their products differently to accommodate TTIP's standards when | :09:12. | :09:15. | |
exporting to the US and the European Union. And if Asian domestic | :09:16. | :09:22. | |
standards and regulations do not match, Asian companies would be | :09:23. | :09:27. | |
forced to create two sets of products, which would result in | :09:28. | :09:30. | |
higher production costs. Earlier, I spoke with Debra elms, an Asian | :09:31. | :09:34. | |
reduction expert. She said a failed outcome would benefit the region, | :09:35. | :09:39. | |
especially China. If the TTIP agreement between the US and the | :09:40. | :09:42. | |
European Union collapses, I think the Europeans will rapidly turned | :09:43. | :09:46. | |
their attention to Asia. They are already negotiating a number of | :09:47. | :09:49. | |
agreements, and I think they will speed up their bilateral investment | :09:50. | :09:52. | |
treaties aux with China, and they will speed up a lot of negotiations | :09:53. | :09:57. | |
that they have here in Asia. Deborah also stressed that the TTIP will not | :09:58. | :10:02. | |
pass will be signed before the US presidential elections because of | :10:03. | :10:04. | |
wrecks it and major antitrade sentiment in the US. -- because of | :10:05. | :10:11. | |
Brexit. Thank you. At is all for me from now. | :10:12. | :10:18. | |
A flagship government programme to support and supervise offenders | :10:19. | :10:21. | |
leaving jail after serving prison terms of less than 12 months has | :10:22. | :10:24. | |
been severely criticised by the Chief Inspectors of Probation | :10:25. | :10:28. | |
In a joint report, the inspectors said the scheme, known | :10:29. | :10:32. |