03/01/2017 World Business Report

A record number of UK oil and gas companies went bust in 2016

but could this be the year the price of the black stuff bounces back?

Where should you put your money this year?

And will economists or fortune tellers have the upper

Also in the programme, live in Singapore to hear how

the city state's economy is faring and you may be surprised.

The number of UK oil and gas companies going bust has reached

an all-time high following the slump in prices of crude.

That's according to accountancy firm Moore Stephens who say a total of 16

businesses became insolvent last year, an eight fold

Despite the recent increase in the price of the black stuff,

at just under $60 a barrel it's still just over half

That price point has hit the industry hard and the New Year

marked the start of the first global pact to cut oil production

From January 1, members of Opec along with other oil-producing

countries slashed crude output by nearly 1.8 million barrels a day.

So could this be a year of recovery for the industry?

With me now is Amrita Sen, Chief Oil Analyst, Energy Aspects.

Happy New Year to you. It is good to see you. What will we see this year,

do you think? We mentioned that OPEC and non- OPEC members are supposedly

following through on their promises are what impact will that have?

Prices should climb back gradually. It will be slow because there is

still a lot of infantry but the global agreement should see...

Compliance will be sketchy but about one million barrels a day will be

taken off the market so that should help run the stores down. When you

talk about compliance, I know that OPEC were at pains to say they will

believe that and be sure that their members follow through on their

commitment, as it were. Can we expect more this time? They are

planning to have a meeting to assess how it is going. The core countries,

the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, they have always been compliant. I do not

expect any form of cheating from them. Iraq, I think, will be tricky

because they need the money to fight Isis and I do not expect any

compliance from them. The rest, what works in favour of OPEC, is because

of years of underinvestment, decline rates accelerating so by default

they will be complying. This time last year we were looking at oil

around $40 a barrel and there was a massive fall early on in 2016

because of what was going on in China. As we have mentioned, many

companies going bust, the smaller energy companies. Will we see more

of that this year? I think the worst is behind us. In terms of companies

struggling. That does not mean they will turn into profits overnight

because again we do not expect oil prices to go much beyond 60 or $65

in the first half of the year. Perhaps in the back end of the year

but it will take a while. I think companies have cut costs but we are

seeing a couple of years of severe cuts and the effects of that is that

it will come through in prices. And what will Trump administration mean,

do you think? It is quite difficult to assess his impact, isn't it, in

terms of the energy industry in the US, for example. It is difficult. He

is pro- oil and gas drilling but a lot of regulation is that the state

level rather than the federal level. Can he make a big difference? His

foreign policy will be the interesting one to watch out for and

could have an effect on global demand. On the flip side he could

tear up the Iran nuclear deal which could be positive for oil prices. A

lot of uncertainty there. Lovely to see you and we will see you again

soon. We will make sure she keeps us across how well is doing this year.

that sounds pretty impressive doesn't it!

Well that is how Singapore's economy performed in the fourth quarter

of 2016 and that is much better than expected.

Sharanjit Leyl joins me now from Singapore with the latest.

Sharanjit, you have shopped like never before!

Now it is not my shopping habits, especially as I did most of my

shopping overseas in the last two weeks or so. Happy New Year and good

news for this city, Singapore. A wet day behind me as you can see but it

is one of the most export dependent nations in Asia and its economy grew

at its fastest pace in over three years last quarter. That seemed to

be a very good gauge of the global economy. But there is not what

another worrying side which I will mention that the headline numbers

first, they showed that manufacturing, services were to be

accredited. They grew, leading to GDP rebounding that 9.1% you

mentioned in the three months to December. Bear in mind this is

rising from a low base from the previous quarter when it declined

where it was 1.9%. But, as I said, it is not all good news. The economy

expanding at its lowest -- slowest pace since 2009. Of course, we know

that global growth is coming under pressure. The US is threatening to

turn protectionist under Donald Trump and the outlook remains a

fairly murky. The Prime Minister himself has said in his New Year

message that overall Singapore is not doing that badly, considering

the global economic uncertainty. He did maintain that the labour market

has eased unemployment remained low and the city is still creating jobs.

A warning this year that anti- globalisation antitrade sentiment

could dampen already very weak global trade conditions. Having said

that, however, the two factors contributed to the growth this time

around, the service industry which is about two thirds of the economy.

They rose 94% after the previous three months. Manufacturing jumping

an annualised 14.6%. For the moment these are fairly enviable numbers.

Thank you very much good to see you. One of the most used words of the

year in 2016 was surreal. We had the British vote to leave

the European Union and Donald Trump won the White House

against all odds. We hear what a longtime economist

and a traditional fortune-teller It is that time of year when many

Asians head to the temples to pray for good luck and figure out what is

in the year ahead. Neither financial forecasters nor fortune tellers

accurately predicted what happened in 2016. So if everyone is getting,

who is to say what will happen in 2017. This area is filled with

fortune tellers and numerology is and I am here to meet one of them.

Master Alex So. As well as an economist at a private bank to find

out. So, the US and China. What sort of relationship will they have in

2017? It will be interesting to say the least. The two largest economies

in the world. You are looking, you know, China who is sending in terms

of playing a larger role in global politics in global trade so how it

will play out really will depend on how Mr Trump is going to deal with

some of his contentious campaign pledges, especially targeted towards

China. Next year as the fire rooster. From the word fire we will

have a lot of problem going on and you will find that there will be a

lot of problems. It will be a hiccup between the US and China so I think

Donald Trump has two try to make it work. How about growth? What will

that be next year? The driver of growth next year will be the

recovery in consumer demand on the back of a recovery in jobs. That

could translate into investment recovery, perhaps of a later leg

towards the end of the year. 20141516. Next year is considered

the last year of a five-year change. So, basically, on the first of you

will see something. What is the big surprise of 2017? What we need to be

mindful of is coming from popular push back of antiestablishment

itself. Rooster is never a good year. It is a year that has a lot of

trouble between family, between companies even between couples. That

does not bode particularly well for any of us. I think it is time for me

to get my fortune taken for 2017. Take Master Alex. She is a brave

woman. That is all from us. We will see you again soon.