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Hello. As September draws to a close, | 0:00:03 | 0:00:05 | |
it's no surprise to hear it's been a predominantly dry month. | 0:00:05 | 0:00:08 | |
But let's take a look at the story so far. | 0:00:08 | 0:00:11 | |
Most of the rainfall we have seen | 0:00:11 | 0:00:13 | |
has been in the far North-West, | 0:00:13 | 0:00:15 | |
but we've hardly seen | 0:00:15 | 0:00:16 | |
any at all in Northern Ireland. | 0:00:16 | 0:00:18 | |
And these totals are way down, percentage-wise, | 0:00:18 | 0:00:21 | |
on what we should have for September. | 0:00:21 | 0:00:23 | |
One of the reasons for this | 0:00:23 | 0:00:25 | |
is probably the position of the jet stream | 0:00:25 | 0:00:27 | |
which has been centred to the far North of the UK. | 0:00:27 | 0:00:30 | |
This ribbon of fast-moving winds | 0:00:30 | 0:00:32 | |
high up in the atmosphere has been deflecting | 0:00:32 | 0:00:35 | |
frontal systems to the North of the UK | 0:00:35 | 0:00:37 | |
and at the same time it's been driving in | 0:00:37 | 0:00:40 | |
slightly milder air from the near Continent, | 0:00:40 | 0:00:42 | |
so temperatures have been quite favourable as well | 0:00:42 | 0:00:45 | |
for the month of September. | 0:00:45 | 0:00:46 | |
It looks like this weather pattern | 0:00:46 | 0:00:48 | |
is set to continue | 0:00:48 | 0:00:49 | |
for the final few days of the month | 0:00:49 | 0:00:51 | |
with weather fronts pushing into the far North-West, | 0:00:51 | 0:00:54 | |
bringing in some nuisance rain. | 0:00:54 | 0:00:56 | |
Elsewhere, it's a largely quiet scenario for Sunday. | 0:00:56 | 0:00:59 | |
Any early-morning fog will lift away, | 0:00:59 | 0:01:01 | |
we'll see dry, sunny spells coming through | 0:01:01 | 0:01:03 | |
and it will feel pleasantly warm | 0:01:03 | 0:01:05 | |
across England and Wales. | 0:01:05 | 0:01:07 | |
Nuisance rain into the afternoon | 0:01:07 | 0:01:09 | |
for Northern Ireland | 0:01:09 | 0:01:10 | |
and the Highlands of Scotland. | 0:01:10 | 0:01:12 | |
Temperatures here a bit more subdued, | 0:01:12 | 0:01:14 | |
15 to 19 degrees at the best. | 0:01:14 | 0:01:16 | |
When we get sunshine coming through, | 0:01:16 | 0:01:19 | |
we could see potentially | 0:01:19 | 0:01:20 | |
temperatures of 23 or 24 Celsius. | 0:01:20 | 0:01:23 | |
As we move towards Monday, | 0:01:23 | 0:01:25 | |
our weather front in Scotland | 0:01:25 | 0:01:27 | |
retreats back further North | 0:01:27 | 0:01:29 | |
and at the same time we pick up | 0:01:29 | 0:01:30 | |
more of a Southerly breeze. | 0:01:30 | 0:01:31 | |
There is a potential for some showers | 0:01:31 | 0:01:33 | |
to drift up from the near Continent. | 0:01:33 | 0:01:35 | |
Something we need to keep a close eye on | 0:01:35 | 0:01:37 | |
across England and Wales. | 0:01:37 | 0:01:38 | |
But we are not concerned too much | 0:01:38 | 0:01:40 | |
about those showers. | 0:01:40 | 0:01:42 | |
It looks as though Monday will be | 0:01:42 | 0:01:43 | |
a predominantly dry day again. | 0:01:43 | 0:01:45 | |
Early morning fog lifting away, | 0:01:45 | 0:01:47 | |
sunshine coming through, | 0:01:47 | 0:01:48 | |
just cloudier skies perhaps | 0:01:48 | 0:01:49 | |
into the far North and West. | 0:01:49 | 0:01:51 | |
Similar values in terms of temperatures, | 0:01:51 | 0:01:54 | |
16 to 22 degrees the overall high. | 0:01:54 | 0:01:56 | |
As we move towards Tuesday, | 0:01:56 | 0:01:58 | |
that Southerly component stays with us. | 0:01:58 | 0:02:01 | |
So again we pick up warmer air | 0:02:01 | 0:02:03 | |
from the near Continent. | 0:02:03 | 0:02:04 | |
The best of the sunshine for England and Wales, | 0:02:04 | 0:02:07 | |
quite breezy out to the North and West | 0:02:07 | 0:02:09 | |
as another weather front | 0:02:09 | 0:02:10 | |
starts to knock on the door | 0:02:10 | 0:02:11 | |
and bring some showery outbreaks of rain | 0:02:11 | 0:02:14 | |
into Western Scotland. | 0:02:14 | 0:02:15 | |
That will slowly drift its way South and East | 0:02:15 | 0:02:17 | |
but weaken substantially. | 0:02:17 | 0:02:19 | |
By then, just a band of cloud and nuisance rain. | 0:02:19 | 0:02:21 | |
At the same time, | 0:02:21 | 0:02:22 | |
another front will push into Scotland. | 0:02:22 | 0:02:25 | |
So more cloud around through the middle of the week, | 0:02:25 | 0:02:27 | |
maybe a few showers from that dying weather front | 0:02:27 | 0:02:29 | |
as it pushes South and East. | 0:02:29 | 0:02:31 | |
At the same time, we see a bit more rain | 0:02:31 | 0:02:33 | |
to the far North-West of Scotland as well. | 0:02:33 | 0:02:36 | |
Winds will remain a feature, | 0:02:36 | 0:02:38 | |
particularly out to exposed coasts | 0:02:38 | 0:02:40 | |
of the North-West on Thursday. | 0:02:40 | 0:02:41 | |
But Thursday looks like again | 0:02:41 | 0:02:43 | |
a good deal of quiet weather in the forecast, | 0:02:43 | 0:02:45 | |
a good deal of dry weather. | 0:02:45 | 0:02:47 | |
Temperatures not bad for the beginning of October. | 0:02:47 | 0:02:51 | |
As we move towards the end of the week, | 0:02:51 | 0:02:53 | |
there are signs that weather fronts are starting | 0:02:53 | 0:02:55 | |
to really just show their hand again | 0:02:55 | 0:02:57 | |
up into the North-West. | 0:02:57 | 0:02:59 | |
And the winds will be more of a feature. | 0:02:59 | 0:03:01 | |
So there is a level of uncertainty | 0:03:01 | 0:03:03 | |
as we move towards Friday and into the weekend. | 0:03:03 | 0:03:06 | |
If this frontal system pushes in | 0:03:06 | 0:03:08 | |
from the North and West, | 0:03:08 | 0:03:10 | |
it could bring more significant rainfall | 0:03:10 | 0:03:12 | |
across the country. | 0:03:12 | 0:03:13 | |
But there is a level of uncertainty to that | 0:03:13 | 0:03:16 | |
and of course it's a long way off. | 0:03:16 | 0:03:18 | |
So further ahead it stays wet and windy into the far North-West. | 0:03:18 | 0:03:21 | |
Dry and bright in the South-East and if you get some sunshine, | 0:03:21 | 0:03:25 | |
well, for the early half of October, it will continue to feel warm. | 0:03:25 | 0:03:30 | |
'Two minutes left, bakers!' | 0:03:32 | 0:03:33 | |
I think I've overdone it with the pistachios | 0:03:33 | 0:03:35 | |
and somehow, the custard's split, but it's too late! | 0:03:35 | 0:03:37 | |
Paul told me not to under-bake it. | 0:03:37 | 0:03:39 |