29/09/2014 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello. As September 2014 comes to a close,

it looks like being quite a memorable month.

Perhaps record-breaking in several areas in terms of rainfall totals.

It's been a dry and warm month.

One of the reasons is due to the jet stream,

this ribbon of fast-moving winds

high up in the atmosphere

has been sitting to the North of the UK,

deflecting the weather fronts to the North of us.

So we've not seen that much in the way of rain.

35 millimetres the most rainfall in Scotland.

But look at Northern Ireland,

just five millimetres across the month.

These were figures until the 26th of this month.

So way down percentage-wise

on where they should be for the month of September.

But there are indications

that the jet stream will start

to push further South as we move into October.

And that's going to influence our weather

as conditions become a bit more unsettled

and it allows weather fronts

to move in from the Atlantic.

There's the first signs of that,

with this area of low pressure

waiting out in the wings.

At the same time, we could drive in

some moisture through the night

and that could spark off

some showers towards the South.

Some of that will enhance the rainfall total

before the month is through.

So we could potentially start off

with early-morning fog, then as the day continues,

the fog lifts and some showers drift steadily North and East.

There is a level of uncertainty

just where these showers are going to fit

and how many we are likely to see.

To the North of that,

across Scotland and Northern Ireland,

it's a pleasant day. Dry with sunny spells

and top temperatures of 16 to 20 Celsius.

As we move out of Monday towards Tuesday,

there's our weather front

pushing in from the Atlantic.

Again, that could enhance

the rainfall we see before September closes

across Northern Ireland

and also into Western Scotland.

Ahead of it, it looks quite promising.

A good deal of dry weather, bright weather,

some glimpses of sunshine coming through.

It will feel quite pleasant

and that weather front weakens substantially

as it drifts further inland across the country.

So on Tuesday, top temperatures

16 to 18 degrees to the North,

highs of 22, still pretty pleasant

for the final few days of September.

As we move towards Wednesday, 1 October,

drier, brighter weather across the country.

Our weather front dying in situ.

Just a band of cloud, a spot or two of rain.

Behind it, things turn fresher on Wednesday.

As we move to Wednesday night into Thursday morning,

high pressure will build

and things turn on the chilly side first thing

before a significant area

of low pressure starts to push in.

So a coolish start into the North on Thursday,

a touch of frost,

but a good deal of dry weather.

The winds increasing by the end of the day,

perhaps overnight Thursday into Friday

we could see gales or severe gales

and we could see some significant rainfall

pushing into the North and West.

So turning increasingly unsettled,

that wet and windy weather drifts South and East.

So, still a level of uncertainty

just how far South and East

and how much rain we get on that front

as it pushes further South.

As that front clears away,

it allows that high pressure then to build in,

but I suspect the difference being,

with the early half of October,

the high pressure will be sitting a little more

across the near Continent

with low pressure to the North and West

and that could allow weather fronts

to drift in across the Atlantic.

So, as we approach the first week of October,

it looks as though there's likely to be a greater chance of rain.

The winds will certainly become more of a feature

and if anything more of an autumnal flavour to the weather forecast.

That's how it's looking. Don't forget, if you are interested

in more information, you can find it on our weather website.

'Two minutes left, bakers!'

I think I've overdone it with the pistachios

and somehow, the custard's split, but it's too late!

Paul told me not to under-bake it.

He's going to have a field day!

Ian's representation of the evils

of statutory press regulation in sponge cake may be a bridge too far.

What will Paul think of it?