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Hello. As September 2014 comes to a close, | 0:00:02 | 0:00:04 | |
it looks like being quite a memorable month. | 0:00:04 | 0:00:06 | |
Perhaps record-breaking in several areas in terms of rainfall totals. | 0:00:06 | 0:00:10 | |
It's been a dry and warm month. | 0:00:10 | 0:00:12 | |
One of the reasons is due to the jet stream, | 0:00:12 | 0:00:15 | |
this ribbon of fast-moving winds | 0:00:15 | 0:00:17 | |
high up in the atmosphere | 0:00:17 | 0:00:18 | |
has been sitting to the North of the UK, | 0:00:18 | 0:00:21 | |
deflecting the weather fronts to the North of us. | 0:00:21 | 0:00:23 | |
So we've not seen that much in the way of rain. | 0:00:23 | 0:00:25 | |
35 millimetres the most rainfall in Scotland. | 0:00:25 | 0:00:28 | |
But look at Northern Ireland, | 0:00:28 | 0:00:29 | |
just five millimetres across the month. | 0:00:29 | 0:00:31 | |
These were figures until the 26th of this month. | 0:00:31 | 0:00:34 | |
So way down percentage-wise | 0:00:34 | 0:00:36 | |
on where they should be for the month of September. | 0:00:36 | 0:00:39 | |
But there are indications | 0:00:39 | 0:00:40 | |
that the jet stream will start | 0:00:40 | 0:00:42 | |
to push further South as we move into October. | 0:00:42 | 0:00:45 | |
And that's going to influence our weather | 0:00:45 | 0:00:47 | |
as conditions become a bit more unsettled | 0:00:47 | 0:00:49 | |
and it allows weather fronts | 0:00:49 | 0:00:50 | |
to move in from the Atlantic. | 0:00:50 | 0:00:52 | |
There's the first signs of that, | 0:00:52 | 0:00:53 | |
with this area of low pressure | 0:00:53 | 0:00:55 | |
waiting out in the wings. | 0:00:55 | 0:00:56 | |
At the same time, we could drive in | 0:00:56 | 0:00:58 | |
some moisture through the night | 0:00:58 | 0:00:59 | |
and that could spark off | 0:00:59 | 0:01:00 | |
some showers towards the South. | 0:01:00 | 0:01:02 | |
Some of that will enhance the rainfall total | 0:01:02 | 0:01:05 | |
before the month is through. | 0:01:05 | 0:01:06 | |
So we could potentially start off | 0:01:06 | 0:01:08 | |
with early-morning fog, then as the day continues, | 0:01:08 | 0:01:10 | |
the fog lifts and some showers drift steadily North and East. | 0:01:10 | 0:01:13 | |
There is a level of uncertainty | 0:01:13 | 0:01:14 | |
just where these showers are going to fit | 0:01:14 | 0:01:17 | |
and how many we are likely to see. | 0:01:17 | 0:01:19 | |
To the North of that, | 0:01:19 | 0:01:20 | |
across Scotland and Northern Ireland, | 0:01:20 | 0:01:21 | |
it's a pleasant day. Dry with sunny spells | 0:01:21 | 0:01:24 | |
and top temperatures of 16 to 20 Celsius. | 0:01:24 | 0:01:27 | |
As we move out of Monday towards Tuesday, | 0:01:27 | 0:01:30 | |
there's our weather front | 0:01:30 | 0:01:31 | |
pushing in from the Atlantic. | 0:01:31 | 0:01:33 | |
Again, that could enhance | 0:01:33 | 0:01:35 | |
the rainfall we see before September closes | 0:01:35 | 0:01:37 | |
across Northern Ireland | 0:01:37 | 0:01:38 | |
and also into Western Scotland. | 0:01:38 | 0:01:40 | |
Ahead of it, it looks quite promising. | 0:01:40 | 0:01:42 | |
A good deal of dry weather, bright weather, | 0:01:42 | 0:01:44 | |
some glimpses of sunshine coming through. | 0:01:44 | 0:01:46 | |
It will feel quite pleasant | 0:01:46 | 0:01:48 | |
and that weather front weakens substantially | 0:01:48 | 0:01:50 | |
as it drifts further inland across the country. | 0:01:50 | 0:01:52 | |
So on Tuesday, top temperatures | 0:01:52 | 0:01:54 | |
16 to 18 degrees to the North, | 0:01:54 | 0:01:56 | |
highs of 22, still pretty pleasant | 0:01:56 | 0:01:58 | |
for the final few days of September. | 0:01:58 | 0:02:01 | |
As we move towards Wednesday, 1 October, | 0:02:01 | 0:02:03 | |
drier, brighter weather across the country. | 0:02:03 | 0:02:06 | |
Our weather front dying in situ. | 0:02:06 | 0:02:08 | |
Just a band of cloud, a spot or two of rain. | 0:02:08 | 0:02:10 | |
Behind it, things turn fresher on Wednesday. | 0:02:10 | 0:02:14 | |
As we move to Wednesday night into Thursday morning, | 0:02:14 | 0:02:17 | |
high pressure will build | 0:02:17 | 0:02:18 | |
and things turn on the chilly side first thing | 0:02:18 | 0:02:21 | |
before a significant area | 0:02:21 | 0:02:22 | |
of low pressure starts to push in. | 0:02:22 | 0:02:24 | |
So a coolish start into the North on Thursday, | 0:02:24 | 0:02:27 | |
a touch of frost, | 0:02:27 | 0:02:28 | |
but a good deal of dry weather. | 0:02:28 | 0:02:30 | |
The winds increasing by the end of the day, | 0:02:30 | 0:02:31 | |
perhaps overnight Thursday into Friday | 0:02:31 | 0:02:34 | |
we could see gales or severe gales | 0:02:34 | 0:02:36 | |
and we could see some significant rainfall | 0:02:36 | 0:02:38 | |
pushing into the North and West. | 0:02:38 | 0:02:40 | |
So turning increasingly unsettled, | 0:02:40 | 0:02:42 | |
that wet and windy weather drifts South and East. | 0:02:42 | 0:02:45 | |
So, still a level of uncertainty | 0:02:45 | 0:02:47 | |
just how far South and East | 0:02:47 | 0:02:49 | |
and how much rain we get on that front | 0:02:49 | 0:02:51 | |
as it pushes further South. | 0:02:51 | 0:02:53 | |
As that front clears away, | 0:02:53 | 0:02:55 | |
it allows that high pressure then to build in, | 0:02:55 | 0:02:58 | |
but I suspect the difference being, | 0:02:58 | 0:03:00 | |
with the early half of October, | 0:03:00 | 0:03:01 | |
the high pressure will be sitting a little more | 0:03:01 | 0:03:04 | |
across the near Continent | 0:03:04 | 0:03:05 | |
with low pressure to the North and West | 0:03:05 | 0:03:07 | |
and that could allow weather fronts | 0:03:07 | 0:03:09 | |
to drift in across the Atlantic. | 0:03:09 | 0:03:11 | |
So, as we approach the first week of October, | 0:03:11 | 0:03:14 | |
it looks as though there's likely to be a greater chance of rain. | 0:03:14 | 0:03:17 | |
The winds will certainly become more of a feature | 0:03:17 | 0:03:20 | |
and if anything more of an autumnal flavour to the weather forecast. | 0:03:20 | 0:03:23 | |
That's how it's looking. Don't forget, if you are interested | 0:03:23 | 0:03:26 | |
in more information, you can find it on our weather website. | 0:03:26 | 0:03:30 | |
'Two minutes left, bakers!' | 0:03:32 | 0:03:33 | |
I think I've overdone it with the pistachios | 0:03:33 | 0:03:35 | |
and somehow, the custard's split, but it's too late! | 0:03:35 | 0:03:38 | |
Paul told me not to under-bake it. | 0:03:38 | 0:03:40 | |
He's going to have a field day! | 0:03:40 | 0:03:42 | |
Ian's representation of the evils | 0:03:42 | 0:03:45 | |
of statutory press regulation in sponge cake may be a bridge too far. | 0:03:45 | 0:03:49 | |
What will Paul think of it? | 0:03:49 | 0:03:51 |