04/11/2015 Weather for the Week Ahead


04/11/2015

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Hello there. We're just a few days into November,

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but yet again breaking temperature records.

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This time, it was in Eskdalemuir in Dumfries and Galloway,

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with the warmest November temperature recorded,

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16.4 Celsius through Tuesday afternoon.

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Sandwiched either side though, a different story,

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with some stubborn fog

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that sat there all day,

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and temperatures didn't climb

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into double figures.

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For England and Wales fog wasn't too much

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of an issue on Tuesday,

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there was a breeze and more cloud,

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and that brought some

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showery outbreaks of rain.

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That rain is going to be hanging around

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during Wednesday,

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producing a fairly messy picture.

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Light and patchy across Scotland,

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but for England and Wales

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some of those showers could be sharp,

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maybe even with the odd rumble

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of thunder mixed in there as well.

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And there will be some hill fog,

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particularly in the far north of Scotland,

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10 to 15 degrees our overall high,

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so mild again for the time of year.

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As we move out of Wednesday,

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the showers will slowly fade

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and we keep some clearer skies

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and potential for further fog into

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the far north, but the breeze picks up

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and we will start to see some rain

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arriving during Thursday morning.

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That will continue to be

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the story on Thursday,

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some wet and windy weather

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pushing in from the west,

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some of it heavy for a time,

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weakening off as it moves

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further east, highs of 11 to 16 degrees.

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As we move out of Thursday,

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that frontal system clears away,

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but it's only going to be replaced by another.

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However, look at the isobars

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squeezing together a south-westerly breeze,

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so it stays mild, but the winds will strengthen,

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gale-force gusts likely

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into the far north and there could be

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a spell of pretty wet weather

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as we move through to Scotland.

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As we get towards the end

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of this week there is a level

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of uncertainty to the timing

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of the frontal systems,

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but wet weather continues to

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move its way steadily east

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and yet again, it's going to be replaced by another

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area of low pressure as we move into Saturday.

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This one could bring severe gales on exposed coasts,

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there's a level of uncertainty

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as to the timing of this frontal system

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- don't make this forecast the last one you watch

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if you've got outdoor plans on Saturday.

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But there will be some wet

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and windy weather to the north,

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showery further south, but mild,

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look at this, 11 to 17 degrees,

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we should be seeing temperatures

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more like 10 or 11 at this time of year.

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Fingers crossed, Sunday looks a little quieter.

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There will be some outbreaks

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of showery rain into the north-west

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and another system gathering into the south-west.

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Ahead of it, with some

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clearer skies through the night

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in sheltered eastern areas,

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could start off chilly on Sunday,

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but hopefully a little

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quieter, drier and brighter.

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By the end of the day on Sunday

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we'll see more significant rain

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pushing into the south-west,

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gradually moving across the south coast,

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hopefully staying largely dry during daylight hours

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in the south-east corner.

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Again, similar values, 11 to 16 degrees.

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So what is happening with our weather?

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A change. At the beginning of November

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we had high pressure

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dominating across the continent

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and that was splitting the jet stream

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to the north and south, blocking high, really,

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but through the middle of November

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it's all changed,

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the jet stream,

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this ribbon of fast-moving winds

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high up in the atmosphere that drive

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the weather systems towards us,

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is going to be pushing its way towards

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the UK, and that'll move these areas

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of low pressure in from the south-west.

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Which basically means

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things will turn wetter and windier.

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So we lose the quieter theme

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with the light winds and stubborn fog

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that we've seen in recent days,

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and that does mean though, for the middle of November,

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it is all change.

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It looks as though it will stay cloudy,

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wet at times and often very windy.

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But trying to stay on an optimistic note,

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the wind's coming from the south-west, it will stay mild.

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Till then, take care.

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# Can you feel it?

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# Can you feel it?

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# Can you feel it? #

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I'm actually tingling with the excitement.

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