17/12/2015 Weather for the Week Ahead


17/12/2015

Similar Content

Browse content similar to 17/12/2015. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

Well, some records have already been tumbling,

0:00:030:00:06

and if we carry on like this, we could well be on course

0:00:060:00:08

for one of the warmest, if not the warmest, Decembers on record,

0:00:080:00:11

and nature has been responding.

0:00:110:00:12

Lovely out there in the garden, some spring bulbs already shooting up.

0:00:120:00:16

I want to take some time to explain some of the factors behind this

0:00:160:00:19

warmth, and one piece in the jigsaw, we think, is El Nino.

0:00:190:00:22

El Nino is the unusual warmth developing in the Pacific Ocean,

0:00:220:00:26

and it's been a particularly strong El Nino through this year.

0:00:260:00:29

The ocean and the atmosphere are all joined up, of course.

0:00:290:00:32

What happens in the Pacific could well have an impact closer to home.

0:00:320:00:37

Here in the Arctic Ocean,

0:00:370:00:39

it's thought the strong El Nino can affect

0:00:390:00:41

the strength of the circulation dividing the cold air to the north

0:00:410:00:45

and the warmer air to the south.

0:00:450:00:47

And specifically in the Atlantic, so far this December,

0:00:470:00:50

we've had unusually cold air plunging down into the western Atlantic,

0:00:500:00:55

whereas further east we've had a dome of warmth,

0:00:550:00:58

and this sort of pattern has kind of got stuck in a rut.

0:00:580:01:02

And of course, it's the dividing line between the cold

0:01:020:01:04

and the warm which drives the jet stream,

0:01:040:01:06

and it's the jet stream which brings our weather system,

0:01:060:01:09

and this strong jet stream has been bringing all this rain and wind

0:01:090:01:13

across the north and the west of the UK,

0:01:130:01:15

and flooding of course in some places already this month.

0:01:150:01:17

It's a similar pattern, really, for the next few days.

0:01:170:01:20

Low pressure systems getting driven by the jet stream,

0:01:200:01:22

up towards the north-west,

0:01:220:01:24

and that's where most of the rain is again on Thursday.

0:01:240:01:26

This weather system brings some pretty heavy rain

0:01:260:01:29

from Scotland and Northern Ireland, into the more north- western parts

0:01:290:01:32

of England and Wales, weakening as it pushes south-eastwards.

0:01:320:01:35

Another very mild day, and the sunshine across the south-east,

0:01:350:01:38

15, possibly 16 degrees.

0:01:380:01:41

Not much rain left as it reaches East Anglia and the south-east,

0:01:410:01:44

and then our attention turns again to the north-west,

0:01:440:01:47

the next weather system comes powering in

0:01:470:01:50

and that's of some concern,

0:01:500:01:51

because that rain really is going to set in, quite heavy

0:01:510:01:54

and persistent rain across Northern Ireland, Scotland,

0:01:540:01:56

and more north-western parts of England and Wales,

0:01:560:01:58

whereas further south and east again, it stays mostly dry

0:01:580:02:01

and this is where the highest temperatures will be.

0:02:010:02:04

Let's focus in on the north-west,

0:02:040:02:05

and we can see a lot of rain from Friday into Saturday

0:02:050:02:08

across parts of south-west Scotland, north-west England.

0:02:080:02:11

Of course, the catchments here are going to respond pretty quickly,

0:02:110:02:14

given the amount of rain we've already seen in recent weeks,

0:02:140:02:17

so a lot of wet weather here and strong winds too.

0:02:170:02:19

Once more, further south and east on Saturday, it'll be drier.

0:02:190:02:22

14 or 15 degrees, remarkably mild yet again.

0:02:220:02:26

So a very mild start to the weekend with some rain around.

0:02:260:02:29

By Sunday it turns fresher.

0:02:290:02:31

Fresher, not colder, just fresher,

0:02:310:02:34

with sunshine and showers.

0:02:340:02:35

A cold front having gone past the country introducing those

0:02:350:02:38

somewhat cooler westerly winds.

0:02:380:02:41

We'll see a mixture of sunshine and showers,

0:02:410:02:43

and those showers could well gang together to give some

0:02:430:02:45

longer spells of rain in one or two places, but there will be some

0:02:450:02:48

bright spells in between, and yes, it's not exactly going to be cold.

0:02:480:02:51

Temperatures just a little bit lower, particularly across the north

0:02:510:02:54

and the west, and then guess what, on Monday,

0:02:540:02:56

we see another low pressure system driving further

0:02:560:02:58

active fronts in across the UK, and yet again,

0:02:580:03:00

it's going to be the more north-western parts of the country

0:03:000:03:03

that are going to bear the brunt.

0:03:030:03:05

We'll have to keep an eye on this system.

0:03:050:03:07

We could see some very strong winds indeed.

0:03:070:03:09

The rain and the wind last to reach

0:03:090:03:11

the more south-eastern parts of the UK.

0:03:110:03:13

So as we approach Christmas, more of the same.

0:03:130:03:15

Yes, strong winds, heavy rain.

0:03:150:03:17

Generally mild, there will be some chillier interludes.

0:03:170:03:20

White Christmas looking unlikely for most places.

0:03:200:03:23

This general pattern might begin to change after Christmas,

0:03:230:03:27

but Darren Bett will update you tomorrow.

0:03:270:03:29

We are ready to begin.

0:03:340:03:36

Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS