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Well, some records have already been tumbling, | 0:00:03 | 0:00:06 | |
and if we carry on like this, we could well be on course | 0:00:06 | 0:00:08 | |
for one of the warmest, if not the warmest, Decembers on record, | 0:00:08 | 0:00:11 | |
and nature has been responding. | 0:00:11 | 0:00:12 | |
Lovely out there in the garden, some spring bulbs already shooting up. | 0:00:12 | 0:00:16 | |
I want to take some time to explain some of the factors behind this | 0:00:16 | 0:00:19 | |
warmth, and one piece in the jigsaw, we think, is El Nino. | 0:00:19 | 0:00:22 | |
El Nino is the unusual warmth developing in the Pacific Ocean, | 0:00:22 | 0:00:26 | |
and it's been a particularly strong El Nino through this year. | 0:00:26 | 0:00:29 | |
The ocean and the atmosphere are all joined up, of course. | 0:00:29 | 0:00:32 | |
What happens in the Pacific could well have an impact closer to home. | 0:00:32 | 0:00:37 | |
Here in the Arctic Ocean, | 0:00:37 | 0:00:39 | |
it's thought the strong El Nino can affect | 0:00:39 | 0:00:41 | |
the strength of the circulation dividing the cold air to the north | 0:00:41 | 0:00:45 | |
and the warmer air to the south. | 0:00:45 | 0:00:47 | |
And specifically in the Atlantic, so far this December, | 0:00:47 | 0:00:50 | |
we've had unusually cold air plunging down into the western Atlantic, | 0:00:50 | 0:00:55 | |
whereas further east we've had a dome of warmth, | 0:00:55 | 0:00:58 | |
and this sort of pattern has kind of got stuck in a rut. | 0:00:58 | 0:01:02 | |
And of course, it's the dividing line between the cold | 0:01:02 | 0:01:04 | |
and the warm which drives the jet stream, | 0:01:04 | 0:01:06 | |
and it's the jet stream which brings our weather system, | 0:01:06 | 0:01:09 | |
and this strong jet stream has been bringing all this rain and wind | 0:01:09 | 0:01:13 | |
across the north and the west of the UK, | 0:01:13 | 0:01:15 | |
and flooding of course in some places already this month. | 0:01:15 | 0:01:17 | |
It's a similar pattern, really, for the next few days. | 0:01:17 | 0:01:20 | |
Low pressure systems getting driven by the jet stream, | 0:01:20 | 0:01:22 | |
up towards the north-west, | 0:01:22 | 0:01:24 | |
and that's where most of the rain is again on Thursday. | 0:01:24 | 0:01:26 | |
This weather system brings some pretty heavy rain | 0:01:26 | 0:01:29 | |
from Scotland and Northern Ireland, into the more north- western parts | 0:01:29 | 0:01:32 | |
of England and Wales, weakening as it pushes south-eastwards. | 0:01:32 | 0:01:35 | |
Another very mild day, and the sunshine across the south-east, | 0:01:35 | 0:01:38 | |
15, possibly 16 degrees. | 0:01:38 | 0:01:41 | |
Not much rain left as it reaches East Anglia and the south-east, | 0:01:41 | 0:01:44 | |
and then our attention turns again to the north-west, | 0:01:44 | 0:01:47 | |
the next weather system comes powering in | 0:01:47 | 0:01:50 | |
and that's of some concern, | 0:01:50 | 0:01:51 | |
because that rain really is going to set in, quite heavy | 0:01:51 | 0:01:54 | |
and persistent rain across Northern Ireland, Scotland, | 0:01:54 | 0:01:56 | |
and more north-western parts of England and Wales, | 0:01:56 | 0:01:58 | |
whereas further south and east again, it stays mostly dry | 0:01:58 | 0:02:01 | |
and this is where the highest temperatures will be. | 0:02:01 | 0:02:04 | |
Let's focus in on the north-west, | 0:02:04 | 0:02:05 | |
and we can see a lot of rain from Friday into Saturday | 0:02:05 | 0:02:08 | |
across parts of south-west Scotland, north-west England. | 0:02:08 | 0:02:11 | |
Of course, the catchments here are going to respond pretty quickly, | 0:02:11 | 0:02:14 | |
given the amount of rain we've already seen in recent weeks, | 0:02:14 | 0:02:17 | |
so a lot of wet weather here and strong winds too. | 0:02:17 | 0:02:19 | |
Once more, further south and east on Saturday, it'll be drier. | 0:02:19 | 0:02:22 | |
14 or 15 degrees, remarkably mild yet again. | 0:02:22 | 0:02:26 | |
So a very mild start to the weekend with some rain around. | 0:02:26 | 0:02:29 | |
By Sunday it turns fresher. | 0:02:29 | 0:02:31 | |
Fresher, not colder, just fresher, | 0:02:31 | 0:02:34 | |
with sunshine and showers. | 0:02:34 | 0:02:35 | |
A cold front having gone past the country introducing those | 0:02:35 | 0:02:38 | |
somewhat cooler westerly winds. | 0:02:38 | 0:02:41 | |
We'll see a mixture of sunshine and showers, | 0:02:41 | 0:02:43 | |
and those showers could well gang together to give some | 0:02:43 | 0:02:45 | |
longer spells of rain in one or two places, but there will be some | 0:02:45 | 0:02:48 | |
bright spells in between, and yes, it's not exactly going to be cold. | 0:02:48 | 0:02:51 | |
Temperatures just a little bit lower, particularly across the north | 0:02:51 | 0:02:54 | |
and the west, and then guess what, on Monday, | 0:02:54 | 0:02:56 | |
we see another low pressure system driving further | 0:02:56 | 0:02:58 | |
active fronts in across the UK, and yet again, | 0:02:58 | 0:03:00 | |
it's going to be the more north-western parts of the country | 0:03:00 | 0:03:03 | |
that are going to bear the brunt. | 0:03:03 | 0:03:05 | |
We'll have to keep an eye on this system. | 0:03:05 | 0:03:07 | |
We could see some very strong winds indeed. | 0:03:07 | 0:03:09 | |
The rain and the wind last to reach | 0:03:09 | 0:03:11 | |
the more south-eastern parts of the UK. | 0:03:11 | 0:03:13 | |
So as we approach Christmas, more of the same. | 0:03:13 | 0:03:15 | |
Yes, strong winds, heavy rain. | 0:03:15 | 0:03:17 | |
Generally mild, there will be some chillier interludes. | 0:03:17 | 0:03:20 | |
White Christmas looking unlikely for most places. | 0:03:20 | 0:03:23 | |
This general pattern might begin to change after Christmas, | 0:03:23 | 0:03:27 | |
but Darren Bett will update you tomorrow. | 0:03:27 | 0:03:29 | |
We are ready to begin. | 0:03:34 | 0:03:36 |