21/12/2015 Weather for the Week Ahead


21/12/2015

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Hello there. I'll come clean at the outset.

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I think most of us dreaming of a White Christmas

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will ultimately be disappointed but perhaps not all of us.

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A lot of fast moving changes in the days ahead.

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Certainly some wind and some rain.

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It will eventually turn a little bit chillier as well.

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Most of the rain first thing in the morning across Northern Ireland

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and Scotland. Some pretty wet weather to start the day.

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Some strong winds, too.

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That will be heading down towards the more southern and eastern areas.

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As a rule, if you start sunny,

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you'll turn wet. If you start wet, you'll turn sunny again.

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For Northern Ireland, Scotland, the more north-western parts

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of England and Wales, things cheering up.

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Another mild day, despite the wind and rain across the south and east.

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That set of fronts clears away, only to be followed by another

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set of fronts. They look quite complicated, don't they?

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What they really mean is a lot of heavy rain and some pretty strong

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winds, particularly across parts of north-west England, north-west Wales.

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Warnings are in force for several hours of heavy rain here.

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Ahead of that, a very mild day.

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Up into the mid teens yet again, in the London area.

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Behind this set of fronts, although it brightens up, it will cool down.

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Eight or nine. A bit of a transformation by Wednesday.

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The fronts are out of the way.

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A lot of sunshine for a time, bright and breezy.

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Some showers across more north-western areas.

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Cold enough for snow, over the highest ground of Scotland.

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Seven or eight here,

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but still technically quite mild across the South East.

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And then, all eyes on a developing area of low pressure.

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It looks like spinning itself up and heading towards the far North West

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and within its circulation, we could see some really strong winds.

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Severe gales possible. So we will keep a very close eye on that.

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The rain will then be heading down across the country

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later on in the day.

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So, a lot going on for Christmas Eve.

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If you are on the move, keep an eye on the forecast.

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Mild again to the south-east of that front. Chillier to the north-west.

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The showers could well be turning to snow across the high ground

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of Scotland, maybe Northern Ireland and northern England,

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as we head into Christmas Day.

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So, technically, perhaps a white Christmas for a few.

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As we get into Christmas Day, we are in the chillier air then.

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The question mark is how long that chillier air lasts.

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Certainly, for most of us, it'll be a cold, crisp start to the day.

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There could be a touch of frost where you are.

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And then we are going to see the warm air trying to push back in

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from the South West.

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There's a lot of uncertainty in the computer models

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about how quickly that happens

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but it does look as if eventually it will turn milder across the far

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South West and in the process, we will see some wet weather turning up.

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Now that would be trying to push its way further northwards

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and eastwards. After a bright, crisp start, it will cloud over

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and feel quite raw for most places on Christmas Day,

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before, as I say, those temperatures recover across the far South West.

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Into Boxing Day then and that milder air does push its way further

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northwards to most of us but perhaps the far north of Scotland

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holding onto the cold air for much of the day,

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so here, a raw feeling day - perhaps on Boxing Day,

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as opposed to the milder weather further south.

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It will be drier, 10-12, underneath the rain clouds with perhaps

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some snow, especially on the high ground of northern Scotland.

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Just 5 or 6 degrees here.

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Now into Sunday and the following week, it looks as if broadly,

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we will have low pressure to the West, higher pressure to the East.

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A run of southerly winds, quite gusty southerly winds as well.

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So to sum up next week, we think it will turn milder again.

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Quite dry, at least for a time particularly in the East,

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closer to the high pressure. Gusty winds and then as that low pressure

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tries to edge in from the West,

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the greatest chance of rain is across western parts of the UK.

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Keep an eye on the forecast. It will be changing day by day.

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Tom Schafernaker will update you tomorrow.

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Vera Claythorne.

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