14/01/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead


14/01/2016

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Hello. It's already turned cold, but this cold snap has another gear.

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It is going to get even colder as we go into the weekend.

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Potentially, turner milder at some point next week,

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but there is a lot of uncertainty about that, as we'll see in a moment.

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For the time being, it is cold and we have low pressure sitting over us,

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bringing moisture. That combination providing some wintry weather.

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Yes, some snow falling at the moment and it will continue, as that low

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slowly heads out into the North Sea. A mixture of rain, sleet

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and hill snow across parts of England and Wales, becoming confined through

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the afternoon across the east. But still some sleet and snow likely,

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chiefly over the hills, but potentially, even down to low levels.

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Some wintry showers across northern Scotland, Northern Ireland.

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For many, turning sunny, but it will be a cold, cold Thursday.

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There is further potential for problems from this wintry weather.

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A combination of ice, sleet and snow during Thursday and, indeed,

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into Friday. Because that low slowly pulling away, still on Thursday

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evening proving a mixture of rain, sleet and some hill snow

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across eastern England. Then, further snow flurries coming in on this

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weather front during the course of the early hours of Friday morning

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could provide a covering on Friday morning's rush hour

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and, again, potentially, quite icy. Friday, for many, is a sunny day,

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but it will feel bitter in the winds and there is still a sprinkling

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of snow showers to come. So, don't be surprised if you see the odd flake

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over the next 48 hours or so. Then, for the next 48 hours, as I said

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at the start, we see a change in gear. The isobars spread out,

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as high pressure builds in. That means the winds fall lighter.

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With light winds and high pressure and cold air, cold air is dense,

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so it just sinks. With no winds to stir it up,

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things just get colder at the surface and the nights, in particular,

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this weekend will be bitter. Severe frosts likely.

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This is not just going to be cold compared to this current,

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pretty mild winter. This is going to be cold compared to ANY winter.

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Now, there is a pay-off, in that most of us this weekend will see some

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sparkling sunshine, but the mornings are going to be very cold.

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Exceptionally cold. How low will we go?

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Well, negative double figures is likely. -15C is possible,

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where there is snow lying on the ground.

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The coldest spell since, at least, March, 2013.

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Into the new working week, high pressure still nearby.

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Low pressure systems trying to come in but, as you can see, on Monday,

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sort of, failing, really. The high is still dominant

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as we go into next week. Yesterday, we were talking about just when

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the milder air would arrive, pushing that high pressure system

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out of the way. There is still a lot of doubt, but for the first half

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of the week, it looks like the cold air, with the high pressure,

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still in control. Now, this graph shows how we expect things to pan out

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through the week ahead. Take this line.

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This line is the computer models. Pretty much all of them suggesting

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it is going to stay cold until at least Wednesday.

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The problem comes after the middle of the week. Some computer models

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will keep it cold. Others turn it much milder quicker.

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And this spread, if you like, this change in the graph, this area

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means there is a greater uncertainty, more uncertainty than usual,

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about just how things will change. We do know it is going to be messy.

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The start of the week looks cold. There is the risk of some snow.

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It will eventually turn milder and wetter, but there is still a lot

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of uncertainty, because those computers

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are just not agreeing about exactly when that will happen.

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