16/01/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello, thanks for joining me

for this extended look at the weather forecast

over the next five to ten days or so.

There is considerable uncertainty in our forecast,

even in the shorter range, in fact -

partly down to the fact that we've got a very unusual Ex-Hurricane Alex

out in the Atlantic. Very unusual for January.

It won't affect our weather directly,

it's heading northwards towards Greenland,

but what it is doing is adding extra energy into the jet stream,

the driving force of our weather, really.

And that's meaning more energy in the jet stream,

more complications for the computer models,

so there's big disagreement between computer models about exactly

what is going to happen in our weather over the next ten days or so.

But we're certainly in the cold air at the moment,

so a chilly weekend ahead.

During Saturday, many areas having a crisp, bright day.

Eastern counties of England more prone to seeing some wintry showers

coming in from the North Sea.

Sleet and snow inland, likely to be rain around the coast.

Temperatures about one to three in the North, further south,

five, six or seven for most of us.

But a largely dry, very pleasant day to come, despite the fact

that temperatures are certainly on the chilly side.

Then later on, Saturday night into Sunday,

we see a period of rain, sleet and snow

across the north-west of the country.

The detail is still quite uncertain

on exactly where we'll see any wintry flurry,

so keep tuned to the forecast over the next few days.

Certainly a very chilly start to Sunday morning.

Now, through the day on Sunday,

we have got high pressure out towards the south and the east of the UK.

A frontal system here in the Atlantic,

trying to nudge its way in from the west,

but it bumps into that high pressure,

so most places yet again on Sunday, we will see a largely dry day.

Likely to be some sleet and snow flurries across parts of Wales,

perhaps into the Midlands, up towards western Scotland.

Eastern areas likely to stay dry, crisp and bright.

Two or three degrees here.

But you'll notice that those temperatures from the south-west

just starting to nudge up by a few degrees.

Then late on Sunday, and on into Monday,

this front starts to head into western areas.

Looks like perhaps it may stall

and many eastern areas keeping under the influence of higher pressure,

so likely on Monday that we'll see crisp, dry conditions

continuing in the East, just two or three degrees.

Whereas further west, some rain, some sleet and some snow.

And a similar story into Tuesday,

as this frontal system tries to edge in from the west or the south-west.

Things will turn milder and wetter,

but as that sleet and rain bumps into the colder air, we could see,

through the middle part of the week, some disruptive snowfall.

Again, the details are very uncertain,

but through the middle of the week,

we could well see a period of sleet and some potentially heavy snow,

before it likely turns back to rain again.

So, this is the middle part of the week.

Wednesday, we're likely to see this frontal system probably fizzling out,

dying a death through the middle portion of the country.

But before it does, some sleet and some potentially heavy snow possible

as it moves its way gradually northwards and eastwards,

but temperatures recovering

by the time we get to Wednesday and on into Thursday.

So, late next week now - it's likely

that we're going to be having an area of high pressure once again,

starting to build towards the east of the country,

keeping things fairly quiet and fairly dry too.

Also keeping these frontal systems at bay out in the Atlantic,

So high pressure probably in charge,

particularly for many eastern, north-eastern areas

through the latter part of next week.

But eventually, when we move on to next weekend,

It looks likely that high pressure edges away towards the east,

so that will open the doors for fronts to head in from the Atlantic.

This is a very simplified representation, of course,

of the fronts coming in from the Atlantic.

But the outlook through the next six to ten days or so -

a cold start to the period, a risk of some disruptive snow,

turning milder and more unsettled

as we head towards the end of the period. Bye-bye.