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Maybe it's just me, but the weather patterns | 0:00:02 | 0:00:05 | |
do seem do get rather more complicated as | 0:00:05 | 0:00:06 | |
a bank holiday weekend approaches, and this one is no different. | 0:00:06 | 0:00:10 | |
There will be a lot of fine weather around through this weekend | 0:00:10 | 0:00:12 | |
and when the sun's out, it'll feel warm, | 0:00:12 | 0:00:14 | |
but there will be heavy, potentially thundery, showers, | 0:00:14 | 0:00:17 | |
and Monday - oh, Monday - that is really giving us | 0:00:17 | 0:00:19 | |
some headaches at the moment, as we'll see in just a moment. | 0:00:19 | 0:00:22 | |
First of all, we've got to get through Friday - | 0:00:22 | 0:00:24 | |
staying quite grey in parts of the east, | 0:00:24 | 0:00:26 | |
damp and drizzly for a time | 0:00:26 | 0:00:27 | |
through the central belt. | 0:00:27 | 0:00:29 | |
Sunshine elsewhere, and the potential | 0:00:29 | 0:00:30 | |
for heavy, thundery, quite vicious storms | 0:00:30 | 0:00:32 | |
across parts of Wales and south-west England | 0:00:32 | 0:00:34 | |
but they'll be well scattered - | 0:00:34 | 0:00:36 | |
many places dry and bright, | 0:00:36 | 0:00:38 | |
bit of sunshine, feeling warm. | 0:00:38 | 0:00:39 | |
Sunny spells, too, across northern Scotland, | 0:00:39 | 0:00:41 | |
but distinctly cooler on some North Sea coasts, | 0:00:41 | 0:00:44 | |
where it stays rather grey. | 0:00:44 | 0:00:45 | |
Now, those thundery showers may take | 0:00:45 | 0:00:47 | |
a while to fade away | 0:00:47 | 0:00:48 | |
during the course of Friday night | 0:00:48 | 0:00:50 | |
and there's potential, actually, | 0:00:50 | 0:00:52 | |
early Saturday morning, to see further storms | 0:00:52 | 0:00:54 | |
heading up across the south, | 0:00:54 | 0:00:55 | |
warm and humid, here, | 0:00:55 | 0:00:57 | |
a little bit cooler, elsewhere. | 0:00:57 | 0:00:58 | |
Temperatures in northern Scotland, again, | 0:00:58 | 0:01:00 | |
well down into single figures. | 0:01:00 | 0:01:01 | |
Into the long weekend, | 0:01:01 | 0:01:03 | |
and again, it could be quite grey on | 0:01:03 | 0:01:04 | |
some of these North Sea coasts during Saturday, | 0:01:04 | 0:01:06 | |
and again, the potential for further thunderstorms, | 0:01:06 | 0:01:09 | |
across the south, generally, particularly in the afternoon, | 0:01:09 | 0:01:11 | |
over Wales and south-west England, | 0:01:11 | 0:01:13 | |
where it'll be quite warm and humid, | 0:01:13 | 0:01:15 | |
we could reach 21 Celsius. | 0:01:15 | 0:01:17 | |
Many places, though, will be dry and bright, | 0:01:17 | 0:01:18 | |
a bit of sunshine - | 0:01:18 | 0:01:20 | |
we'll see temperatures into the mid to high teens. | 0:01:20 | 0:01:22 | |
On Sunday, the greatest risk of heavy, | 0:01:22 | 0:01:24 | |
possibly thundery, showers is across the far north-west, | 0:01:24 | 0:01:27 | |
but there is some rain not far away | 0:01:27 | 0:01:29 | |
in the near continent and that, as I said, | 0:01:29 | 0:01:31 | |
is the start of the big question marks, | 0:01:31 | 0:01:33 | |
as we go into Monday. | 0:01:33 | 0:01:35 | |
We've got an area of low pressure, | 0:01:35 | 0:01:36 | |
but it's approaching from the east | 0:01:36 | 0:01:38 | |
and that is one of the major complications, | 0:01:38 | 0:01:40 | |
because usually, our low pressure systems | 0:01:40 | 0:01:42 | |
come in from the west, | 0:01:42 | 0:01:43 | |
and the big question mark, | 0:01:43 | 0:01:45 | |
how far in will that low come? | 0:01:45 | 0:01:47 | |
This was the set-up yesterday - | 0:01:47 | 0:01:48 | |
we were expecting the low | 0:01:48 | 0:01:50 | |
to mostly stay away, | 0:01:50 | 0:01:51 | |
a bit of rain maybe grazing the east coast. | 0:01:51 | 0:01:53 | |
Now, most of the computer models | 0:01:53 | 0:01:55 | |
are taking that low | 0:01:55 | 0:01:56 | |
a bit further inland, | 0:01:56 | 0:01:57 | |
and the most likely scenario at the moment | 0:01:57 | 0:01:59 | |
is that many eastern areas will | 0:01:59 | 0:02:01 | |
have a wet day on Monday, | 0:02:01 | 0:02:02 | |
but the west could stay dry. | 0:02:02 | 0:02:03 | |
I say "could", because there's another scenario | 0:02:03 | 0:02:06 | |
where the low pressure drifts right across the UK | 0:02:06 | 0:02:08 | |
and most of us have a bit of a soggy one on Monday. | 0:02:08 | 0:02:11 | |
But this is the most likely scenario at the moment, | 0:02:11 | 0:02:13 | |
with eastern parts of England in particular looking wet. | 0:02:13 | 0:02:16 | |
There will be a brisk and cold wind as well | 0:02:16 | 0:02:18 | |
and temperatures really struggle, | 0:02:18 | 0:02:20 | |
whereas many parts of the west | 0:02:20 | 0:02:21 | |
could have a fine day on Monday. | 0:02:21 | 0:02:23 | |
The question marks arising from this low pressure | 0:02:23 | 0:02:25 | |
because it's coming in from the east, | 0:02:25 | 0:02:27 | |
as I mentioned earlier. | 0:02:27 | 0:02:29 | |
If you think about a scenario | 0:02:29 | 0:02:30 | |
where you're throwing a paper ball into a bin, | 0:02:30 | 0:02:33 | |
if you do it with your stronger hand, | 0:02:33 | 0:02:35 | |
you may get it in the bin eight | 0:02:35 | 0:02:36 | |
or nine times out of ten, | 0:02:36 | 0:02:38 | |
but then switch to your weaker hand, | 0:02:38 | 0:02:40 | |
then you may only get that bit of paper in the bin | 0:02:40 | 0:02:43 | |
four or five times out of ten. | 0:02:43 | 0:02:45 | |
That's what the computer models struggle with, | 0:02:45 | 0:02:47 | |
because it's coming in | 0:02:47 | 0:02:48 | |
from the east, not the west. | 0:02:48 | 0:02:50 | |
That's why there's so much uncertainty. | 0:02:50 | 0:02:52 | |
By Tuesday, we pretty much | 0:02:52 | 0:02:54 | |
end up with low pressure across the UK, | 0:02:54 | 0:02:55 | |
so most places, cloudy with outbreaks of rain. | 0:02:55 | 0:02:58 | |
The north-west may be favoured | 0:02:58 | 0:02:59 | |
for staying dry and bright | 0:02:59 | 0:03:00 | |
and then we go into next week. | 0:03:00 | 0:03:02 | |
Now, with uncertainty in the shorter term, | 0:03:02 | 0:03:04 | |
looking even further ahead, | 0:03:04 | 0:03:06 | |
there will be uncertainty again, | 0:03:06 | 0:03:08 | |
but it does look as if the low | 0:03:08 | 0:03:09 | |
will hang around for the first part of next week, | 0:03:09 | 0:03:11 | |
but high pressure tries to build in | 0:03:11 | 0:03:14 | |
later next week, which may start to dry things up. | 0:03:14 | 0:03:17 | |
It always looks pretty cool next week, | 0:03:17 | 0:03:19 | |
no signs of anything really hot. | 0:03:19 | 0:03:20 | |
It should steadily dry up | 0:03:20 | 0:03:22 | |
and with the high pressure closest to the north, | 0:03:22 | 0:03:24 | |
that's where we may well find the brightest weather | 0:03:24 | 0:03:26 | |
for the second half of next week. | 0:03:26 | 0:03:28 | |
Stay tuned to the forecast. | 0:03:28 | 0:03:29 | |
WIND WHISTLES | 0:03:32 | 0:03:32 | |
'I've had a most rare vision.' | 0:03:32 | 0:03:34 |