01/07/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello. If you like your summer weather to be warm

and sunny, you've probably been disappointed with June.

Let's look at the statistics for the month.

The provisional statistics, that is.

It shows, as most of you can guess,

it's been a duller than average month.

This map, the grey colours,

showing where we've seen less than

the average amount of sunshine.

Parts of western, southern Scotland

have seen about the average.

And Shetland is in yellow.

Here we've see quite a lot of sunshine during June,

Shetland one of the driest parts

of the UK through the month as well.

This map shows rainfall distribution.

The bluer colours where we've had

more than the average,

significantly more across eastern Scotland,

East Anglia and south-east England.

Why so dull and so wet?

It's all to do with the jet stream,

that fast-moving ribbon of air high up.

It has been persistently quite far south,

driving low-pressure systems across the UK.

And it's not really shifting too far

in the coming days.

Many will see sunshine on Friday,

but there'll be showers around.

Bands of heavy showers drifting south

particularly across northern Britain.

After a grey start

across the south-east, East Anglia,

it may cheer up a bit here.

We could stay largely dry here

with 19 or 20 the high.

But most places seeing heavy, thundery showers

and temperatures below average

in the mid to high teens.

Saturday could start largely dry.

Again it's another day of sunshine and showers.

Not many showers south of the Midlands,

many places here should have

a fine day on Saturday.

Perhaps up to 20 Celsius, but many places,

particularly with the showers and breeze,

feeling on the cool side

for the first part of July.

Low-pressure systems dominating

to the north of the UK

and another set of weather fronts approaching.

These ones not too angry,

not bringing too much in the way of rain,

but it will introduce more cloud

across the South and West

with outbreaks of rain tracking in

across southern areas.

Further north, not as many showers on Sunday,

so many places will be dry and fine,

but again temperatures still below average

even where we see

some lengthy spells of sunshine.

Then, for Sunday into Monday,

those weather fronts get

their act together a bit more.

Low pressure continues to dominate.

Some uncertainty about how far north

this area of rain will be.

But it looks as if

there will be rain for some on Monday.

To this south, we start to bring

slightly warmer, humid air

across the UK. So we could get into the low 20s.

Signs of things settling down a bit

as we go into Tuesday.

Some showers to clear away from the north,

but with a bit of warmth in the south,

we could get to 21 or 22.

This is the set-up into next week.

Low pressure nearby.

What we talked about yesterday,

this ridge of high pressure,

needs to move its way in.

The Azores high, for a settled spell of weather,

needs the bodily move across the UK.

It does try and push up around the middle part of the week,

so we could get some fine weather, Tuesday or Wednesday,

but then it will shrink back south again,

allowing low-pressure systems to again be close to the UK.

It may again just try temporarily to push back towards the UK

later next week. But these are only hints of summer.

We really need that high pressure to shift fully across the UK

for any settled spell of weather

to allow temperatures to start to build.

And that's only possible if the jet stream moves to the north of the UK.

But it doesn't look like happening.

The Jet stream still in a similar position for the first part of July.

Keeping things pretty unsettled

generally cool and showery.

When that high moves up,

there will be perhaps hints of summer,

but that's about all we can say at the moment.

That's all for now. Goodbye.