14/09/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead


14/09/2016

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Hello there. Yesterday, Nick Miller was explaining the reasons behind

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this extraordinary spell of weather we're having.

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The answer lies in the jet stream.

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I'm going to continue that theme of the jet stream in this broadcast.

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We're going to see some big changes.

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This week, so far, of course, 30 degrees quite widely across

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England and Wales in particular,

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record-breaking temperatures for the time of year,

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and the reason is a huge kink in the jet stream, initially down

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across the Bay of Biscay and then northwards up towards Scandinavia,

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allowing this influx of hot air from the near Continent.

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Fast-forward to next week,

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a completely different complexion to the jet stream,

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a westerly jet, allowing an Atlantic influence of weather, and

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that means things kind of getting back to normal, as we'll see.

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I'll talk more about the jet stream later on.

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But a steamy start to Thursday, the last really warm day, particularly

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where you start off with sunshine across southern counties.

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It could be a slow start further north,

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but the low cloud will break up, the sun will come out,

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the temperatures will shoot up, widely up into the twenties,

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possibly the low thirties across the south-east.

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Then it all goes bang, potentially,

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during the course of Thursday evening and night,

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initially across southern counties of England,

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up through parts of Wales, the Midlands, northern England.

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Some torrential thunderstorms possible. Warnings have been issued.

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It could turn very wet across eastern Scotland, too.

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In fact, this rain lingering across eastern areas well on into

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Friday, we think, before eventually it brightens up from the west.

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Much, much fresher conditions coming in off the Atlantic, temperatures

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in some places ten degrees lower

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on Friday compared with Thursday. You'll notice the difference.

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That front eases away later on Friday and into Saturday.

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We see a ridge of high pressure building in.

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Saturday is looking good for most of us. There'll be some sunshine.

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The vast majority of us will be dry, we think,

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with broken cloud, and the winds shouldn't be too strong,

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and temperatures kind of back to where they should be

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at this time of year, mid to high teens,

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possibly low twenties across the south-east.

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A developing area of low pressure,

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quite an intense feature, heading up towards Iceland,

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and this trailing weather front on Sunday will bring some rain

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initially to Northern Ireland and Scotland,

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and then it's going to start to head south-eastwards.

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Some uncertainty about its progress, though,

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so it could stay fine across many southern and eastern areas

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right the way through the day.

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And it will brighten up behind that weather front, as well.

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That front could linger across more southern and eastern areas

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on Monday, so watch this space.

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A lot of uncertainty, but some showery rain, potentially,

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across the south-east.

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Brightest the further north and west we go on Monday.

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Now, let's take a step back, because to look further ahead we have to

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look further afield sometimes.

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The Arctic is beginning to cool quite quickly now,

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little lobes of blue beginning to head their way down across

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Canada and Greenland, so colder air heading into the Atlantic

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meeting warm air still trying to come up from the tropics,

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and where the two converge,

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we tend to get a supercharged jet stream, and that's exactly

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what's going to happen during the course of next week.

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So, a strengthening westerly jet stream,

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and that's going to start to power its way towards us and carry

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weather systems with it,

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and that means that we're fairly confident that next week

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we're going to see some outbreaks of rain, some gusty winds, too, on

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that jet stream, particularly across more northern and western areas.

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However, Europe is quite warm, and we have to keep an eye on that,

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because if the winds start to come up from the south again,

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we could see some of that warm air returning.

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We're keeping an eye on it. But in general next week, back to normal,

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that Atlantic influence, wettest across the north-west, but just

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that caveat - we could still see

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some warmth across the south-east. I will update you again tomorrow.

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THEME PLAYS: The Apprentice

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