01/10/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead


01/10/2016

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Well, the weekend's upon us and the weather is looking

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a little bit mixed, has to be said -

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a bit like today, actually.

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For many of us, it was a fine day,

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but we also had a few big showers,

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some big cumulonimbus clouds

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bringing downpours in one or two areas,

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but also sunshine with fair-weather clouds.

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We saw lots of these cloud streets -

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you can see them on the satellite picture

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that I'll show you -

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we had this west-southwesterly flow of wind

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and these shower clouds developing

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along the flow of that wind.

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But notice this area of cloud here

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that is now drifting off the Atlantic.

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That is unfortunately going to upset

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the weather for us during the course of Saturday.

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So here it is for the early hours

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of Saturday morning -

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another area of low pressure

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drifts in off the Atlantic and,

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unfortunately, this will be stuck

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across the country all through the day.

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So not everybody will be happy

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with the weather on Saturday.

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Some of us, the unfortunate few,

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underneath this band of cloud and rain,

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could have temperatures of around 10 degrees.

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There could be thunder and lightning.

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The winner this time

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will be the northern portion of the UK -

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northern England, Northern Ireland

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and Scotland, some sunshine.

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Very quickly, that low pressure

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will drift away towards the east

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then this -

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what we call a ridge of high pressure -

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is going to develop for Sunday,

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so Sunday is actually looking fine.

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A lot of clear skies early on Sunday.

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That means that it will be a chilly start to the day,

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particularly in rural areas.

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In fact, in Scotland and Northern Ireland,

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there will be a touch of frost first thing.

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So, cold morning, maybe a bit of mist,

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but the day will be gloriously sunny

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across most of the country, here.

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Just the outer edges of that low pressure

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that we had on Saturday visible, here,

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but for most of us,

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we are in-between weather systems,

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hence, a glorious day.

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Remember, that ridge of high pressure,

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sitting right on top of us,

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giving these fine conditions.

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Temperatures will average around 15,

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could get up to 18 degrees Celsius

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in London.

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Now, this high pressure will stick around

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across this part of Europe for quite some time.

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I'll be focusing on that over the next minute or so.

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Weather fronts trying to come in off the Atlantic,

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but they can't - in fact,

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the thinking is, on Monday,

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there will be a weather front

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knocking on the door of Northern Ireland

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and western parts of Scotland,

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but the vast majority of the UK,

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enjoying these south-southeasterly winds,

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and that means the temperatures will rise.

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Could be not far off 20 degrees in London.

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Something of an Indian summer, there,

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across the south-east. Now, come Monday -

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this is the jet stream, actually -

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notice this big kink and how it diverts northwards.

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When this happens,

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the jet stream tends to stall weather fronts

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just to the west of our neighbourhood,

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and a high pressure here across Scandinavia

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means these weather fronts

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can't actually nudge through.

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Well, they kind of do,

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but they fizzle away and then drift towards

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the north-west, so Scotland actually

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may get a little rain on Tuesday,

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but just how much is still uncertain.

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This is Tuesday night into Wednesday -

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that weather front dies a death,

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but more weather fronts try to come in,

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but again, they have a tendency

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to move towards the north-east.

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So Wednesday, again,

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predominantly dry and bright.

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Chilly morning, yes,

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but look at these temperatures -

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nothing to be sniffed at for this time of year.

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16 as far north as Newcastle.

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And then, most of next week,

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we are going to see

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that same pattern repeat itself -

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the kink in the jet stream

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keeping the low pressures

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out towards the Atlantic,

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high pressure here,

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stopping these weather fronts from coming in.

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So, like it or not,

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it is not looking bad at all -

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lots of dry weather,

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a risk of maybe a little bit of rain

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in the north-west of the country,

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but for most of us, it should be dry most of next week.

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Thanks for watching.

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