01/11/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello, there. A summary of the month of October coming up shortly,

but before that, I've got some

spookily interesting facts about Halloween.

We've had three consecutive warm Halloweens,

in 2014 the warmest with 24 Celsius in Kent, 75 Fahrenheit.

But 2016 saw the warmest Halloween on record for parts of Wales.

But it wasn't the warmth that's been the talking point through the month,

it's just how dry it's been -

particularly across central and western areas we've seen

way below average rainfall

with just eastern fringes seeing really around average

and the north-west of Scotland

has been incredibly dry and sunny.

In fact, it's been the sunniest October since 1929.

And the reason for this,

well, it's all to do with the pressure patterns.

We had high pressure, really, just anchored up into the north

and that dragged in an unusually easterly flow of winds.

So, from time to time it was quite cool and on the east coast

it was at times quite showery too.

What we should have at this time of year is low pressure up into

the north and this westerly flow bringing in milder

but wetter weather as autumn approaches.

But it does look as though we are set to see some cold weather

descend across the country - that'll be a bit of

a shock to the system over the next few days, I suspect.

It will be relatively quiet, but, yes, noticeably colder.

Anyway, through Tuesday we will have some fog around across

the M4 corridor, that will lift into low cloud and the odd spit

and spot of drizzle from the dying weather front.

Behind it, something brighter, fresher,

but certainly sunnier across Scotland and Northern Ireland -

8 to 15 degrees perhaps our overall high.

That weather front will slowly clear away and under clearer skies

we'll see temperatures falling away with just a scattering

of showers up into the far north but more importantly, it could be

a chilly night with a widespread frost across the country.

So, that will certainly help to bring down the autumn colours,

the leaves that have been sitting on the trees, unfortunately,

and another thing that will help is a strengthening wind

coming from a northerly direction, and across that east coast

it's going to feel chillier with a scattering of showers here.

Further west, in a little more shelter, not quite as cold,

but nevertheless, 9 to 12 Celsius.

Now, the high-pressure stays with this.

Weather fronts trying to push in from the extreme north-west and that

will eventually bring some rain with it, but generally on Thursday,

there'll be a good slice of sunny weather across England and Wales,

clouding over from the west with some wet and windy weather

arriving by the end of the day.

And look at the temperatures, 8 to 12 degrees.

That will bring the first significant rain for quite some time

across England and Wales as it pushes south and east,

and then as we move into the weekend, look at the isobars,

squeezing together and heading from a northerly direction,

so it stays windy and potentially it stays pretty chilly.

So that means for the firework displays taking place this weekend

it's certainly worth bearing in mind...

A noticeable wind, perhaps gale force at times,

and it's going to feel pretty chilly as well.

What's happening further afield?

Well, looking ahead to the eight to ten-day forecast,

it looks as though we keep this north-westerly flow developing,

always making it feel cooler with high-pressure really sitting

out into the north-west.

So, it's going to stay cold for the beginning of November,

there's a potential for some wintry showers, even at lower levels

to the north for a time, dry but largely frosty down to the south.

So, to summarise, a change of month, a change to the feel.