French Presidential Election Result: What Next for France and Europe?

I am the UK correspondents for two global news channels in France and

in English and I am delighted to be here at Chatham House, Chatham House

where I learned many, many things. And I hope you will in this debate

learn a few things. The title of the debate is French Presidential

Election Result, What Next For France And You? Yesterday on the 7th

of May, voters elected, French voters elected a Emmanuel Macron to

be their new president. He won over 66% of the votes, yet Macron set up

his centrist on Marsh movement only 13 months ago. This is absolutely

unprecedented and quite remarkable. The fact that he is 39 years old is

also very remarkable, by French standards, as I am sure many of will

know. Marine Le Pen hailed a historic result for the far right,

an extraordinary 34%, which by French national standards is also

quite remarkable. I should remark that the turnout is around 74%, the

lowest for a run-off in almost 50 years. So many questions, but what

we already know is that this is a seismic shift in French politics.

For the first time in the history of the fifth Republic, no mainstream

party candidates, from the Socialist party or the Republicans, the French

equivalent, if you will, of Labour and the Conservatives, have made it

through to the second round. We would all agree on the word,

possibly, two outsiders were in the run-off. One won handsomely last

night, Emmanuel Macron. Some voters have already today been

voicing caution about Emmanuel Macron saying, it's not about the

vote where you adhere to something, you asuppose to, agree with those

policies, but that they were mainly motivated to keep Marine Le Pen out

of power. He in his first speech last night and today has promised to

fight division and promote hope and reconciliation. He has the huge

colossal task of building a governing majority for his newcomer

movement. It's not even officially a political party. So, what will be

the impact of this new presidency for foreigns, what will be the

impact of this new presidency and the new president with the many

reforms he want Toscary out and the hope that he carries colossal hope

that he carries with him, he will be sworn in, President Hollande

confirmed that this morning, next Sunday when in fact President

Hollande's mandate expired. -- expires. I'm delighted to say that

with me, and it's normally a big chestnut but now it's not. I have an

eminent panel. From the extreme right, no reflection on you,

Jonathan! I sign youed up. That's all right! So, author, history of

modern France, many things besides, the Guardian, you were in Hong Kong

for many years, I could go on, I won't. Dr Francois, lecturer in

relations, Queen Mary University of London. Dr Susan Gullar, senior

lecturer in French politics and contemporary university studies,

University of Sussex. And of course I've skipped an eminent person in

the middle there and he is, lest you didn't know, Mr Peter Ricketts. You

were ambassador in France, you had the great privilege from 2012-2016,

so very relevant and recent experience. So we are going to find

out if Mr Macron is going to be good or bad for Brexit and many other

things besides. John that, you have eight minutes, and I do mean eight

minutes, to talk real hi about the historical perspective with special

attention to the fact that the two mainstream parties, the socialists

and the la republic that didn't make it. I'll keep an eye on the clock.

Tell me when we get to seven minutes!

Of course, that has been, as you said in the earthquake element to

this election that, the Socialist Party is very split and probably

like a lot of other Socialist Parties in Europe is facing a period

of prolonged decline with the possibility of a decision by people

like the former Prime Minister who came out for Macron against the

socialist candidate in the first round. So you can see, as happened

in Britain with the Labour Party and the Social Democrats, the

possibility, I would say probability of a split and two of the socialists

big beasts, the Defence Minister and boss of Britain and the Mayor of

Lyon have been working in Macron's back room all through the campaign.

So you can see the division of the socialists who probably will not be

able to put it together again and of course are menaced on their left by

the group that got 19% in the first round compared with 6%. I think the

socialists are pretty much heading for a twilight there. The

Republicans, it's rather different. At, of course, where we are now is

really only the first round, if you like. The second round of four which

we are going to have in France because we have Parliamentary

elections on the 11th and 18th June. That will be the real testing time

for Macron. I think his victory over Le Pen was always going to be there.

If I say so, I was writing about this as a probability back in

February and so you could see that with the decline of Ffion. She was

never going to guess the necessary reservoir of votes on the second

round from people that voted for candidates on the first round. So in

a sense, Macron, it's no surprise that he won but his real test will

come at the National Assembly elections next month when her

opposition has no chance of winning. It shows 250 in one poll. That is

ridiculous. Lots of people around Macron are betting on the

presidential dynamic that the feeling that under the fifth

republic, once France has voted for a president out of cohesion with

their own initial vote, voters will go for that candidate's party.

History just doesn't bear this out. Even the goal, when he found it, the

fifth republic in the midst of the threat of Civil War in Algeria and

everything else in 1958 couldn't put together a Parliamentary what

generate of his own had to make other arrangements.

You The most likely outcome of this, because at Parliamentary elections

local roots count. The presidentern election, particularly this year,

was more of a referendum. It was more for or against Le Pen rather

than for or against Macron, as such. But the partry election will be very

influenced by local implantation of deputies and it's quite possible

that the Republicans will stage something of a comeback at that

point, meaning that Macron will not have a majority in the National

Assembly, meaning that we will go into a form of coalition Government

between Macron and the Republicans. Certainly some of the Republicans on

television last night were more or less saying, yes, I'd be happy to

work with him, so long as we can keep our identity as a separate

party which Republicans have to do to prevent Marine Le Pen whose real

aim has never been 2017, always aiming for 2022 by when she hopes

she'll build up the National Front as the big National Party, a

Nationalist Party on the right so. The Republicans have to look, they

don't want to be eaten away, gnawed away by the left or by the National

Front on their right. I would guess they'll go into a coalition. If you

look at Macron's main economic policies, cutting corporate tax,

which is the highest in the EU, removing the wealth tax from

investments and Labour liberalisation, the kind that he

tried to put through on his economics minister but Hollande

backed off it and they put through a half-hearted law which still

produced a lot of protests for the result. The Republicans agree with

all of that, so you can see a policy agreement coming in the centre of

French politics, reaching out to the Social Democrats on one side and the

more liberal Republicans on the other. The Republicans were probably

split between the hard liners and more liberal people. Here we've got

a very fluid situation which will test Macron's ability as a political

fixer, basically. And while we say, you know, this was the upset

election with the two outsiders, as you say in that, really that was not

the case. Le Pen's been around for an awfully long time, you know. I

remember her back in the 1990s and so on. She's run before. The

National Front round has been there for a long time. What's happened

this time is that it's legitimized itself with a third of the

electorate and you could see a possible path to the Elysee if there

had been even higher abstentions and shifts of votes. Macron is the

insurgent in that the left has upset the apple cart. But he's the

ultimate establishment candidate. He stands for all the things that the

French Parisian elite establishment stands for. This is not a rebel, you

know, he's pro-European, he wants market-led reforms, he's socially

liberal. You couldn't, you know, make up a better person. How he's

going to operate within the party, the surviving party system, will be

one big test, and the other test to finish will be that Le Pen and her

opponent will have a couple of deputies between them and for the

CGT becoming more militant as it loses members, we'll have a lot

ahead to come. Thank you very much for setting the scene. I like that

political fixer. We are going to talk branding later on, Marine Le

Pen wants to change the name of her party. Let's move on swiftly and

totally organically to Dr Bicek, can you talk to us about the forthcoming

elections, also as Jonathan was saying, the potential difficulty of

trying to get a governing majority, a little bit about the workings of

the two ballot system and a couple of remarks, if you would, a tall

task I'm asking you to do, but for the implications for the French

economy? Yes, thank you. Well, one good thing

about the outcome of the presidential election is that now

the doom merchants can now go back to their boxes. The level of

political scars are tremendously reduced. It already did two weeks

ago after the first round. So the key question, as Jonathan outlined

is, there is still uncertainty in how and whether Macron can conjure

up a majority. Will he be able to govern and bring about, implement

the programme of social and economic reform. There was another element

there of uncertainty that I think is also less than it was previously in

terms of European politics and maybe this hasn't been covered so much

today, but in Germany, Angela Merkel's party actually came first

in the state election. That happened unexpectedly. So it looks like the

German elections are coming up in September, you know. It's quite

possible that the democrats might be re-elected. But even if they are

not, if it's the Social Democrats, I think Martin Schulz's approach would

be not that much different. In terms of European politics, we are in

quite good steady ground now, not that possible disruption that the Le

Pen presidency would have brought. So let me then talk a little bit

about the Parliamentary elections. So, as Jonathan outlined, Macron's

movement has to first of all select candidates for 77 constituencies. To

my knowledge, they have only confirmed so far 14 nominations, so

they have a lot of work to do without an organisation and without

public funding, because in France political parties get a big slice of

the funding from the state. That is based on Parliamentary presentation.

So if you are a new party starting off, you don't have any seats so you

already lose that. Plus, he's also demanding that there should be

parity in terms of man and woman. So equal candidates of men and women.

Mostly from civil societies. So trying to reduce the number of

politicians or at least bring renewal in that way. Moreover, he

also said, whichever candidates decides to run for the left will

have to renounce their intentions so we may see some change in regards to

left candidates, mainly it will affect left candidates. So this

raises a question about the future of the Socialist Party and I think

maybe Susan will talk about that a bit later on. For the elections,

there's also a two-ballot system. It works slightly differently because,

for the presidential election in the second one, it's a bindery choice

between two candidates in the legislative elections, whichever

candidate wins more than 12. 12.4% of registered voters, not those

who've voted, can proceed to the second round. That's still quite a

high barrier. Often in French elections thereof

three candidates that go into the second round, and at the last

election there were three candidates fighting for individual seats. We

could even have four candidates because of the nature of the system,

so previous polls are not a good indication to predict what the

situation might be next June. So there is lots of uncertainty there,

but at the same time, as Jonathan outlined, because macron is a

centrist and is claiming to do politics beyond left and right he

might be able to get close to the 289 seats, but unlikely. So there is

probably a coalition of some kind, probably from the left, but possibly

from the UDI, the centre-right party. They lost Macron in the

second round, but now they want to defend their own seats, so they will

not be so eager to wave the banner, and it will be a quite interesting

thing to watch in terms of coordination between the parties in

the two rounds. Traditionally, the 1-party system was less fragmented

than today and the parties on the left the right, two mainstream

parties would strike electoral pact between the two rounds and the

candidate who came out on top would then fight the seat on behalf of the

Alliance in that district. Whereas now the coordination might be upset

because there are more parties in play. So what does that mean? It

means Macron will have difficulty getting a mandate for his policies,

and he may have to content with some awkward partners in his coalition,

assuming it is a coalition government. Not only that, he will

also have to contend with the power of the street because we know that

is what happens in France. If you try to do anything a little too

drastic. His intention is to really push through some major labour

reforms. He's talking about rushing them through this summer, using the

presidential power of decree. So a lot of interesting things to come.

One last thing, putting his presidency in the European context

and he is very much pro-European. One of the few leaders to have

campaigned on the pro-Europe mandate. Most national politicians

will talk about Europe that national elections, but he did. And he wants

to go quite far. I would almost qualify his aim as creating a

minister of finance in the Eurozone, a parliament in the Eurozone. So not

necessarily good news for Brexit. But we will come back to that. The

18th of June, so he does not have much time to sort out this

coordination. The political fixer that Jonathan was referring to has a

lot of work on his plate, as I'm sure he knows. Wright, thank you

very much for that. So, Doctor Susan, I would like to focus on

domestic politics, particularly with regard to the Republicans and

socialist parties. I gather you came back from France this morning and

you have hotfooted it to Chatham House. Overnight. And I think you

came from spending the weekend in rural Normandy. From Normandy to

Chatham House, excellent. Take us there. Enlighten us. I'm not going

to talk about Normandy unless anybody really wants me to. That is

a whole other debate. If you want that debate, I'm sure she can do it.

I am going to phrase this in terms of whether or not Macron is

representing the dawn of a new era for French politics and whether

things will be really different this time or not. Will he really be able

to change things fundamentally, or will they just be a bit of tinkering

around? I think for things to change fundamentally there are two main

things I've identified. I've only got eight minutes, but one of them

is modernising and moralising public life and political life. This is

really important and he will start on the straightaway and it's really

important. The second one is the whole question of the recomposition

of the party system in France. That is the one I will focus on most

because they have broken the mould. It's the most extraordinary thing

when you know the history of French politics and the fifth Republic.

This is partly due to contingent factors. He got lucky with the

Penelope situation and with the far right rivals, lucky that France was

Holland wasn't standing again. But they're also long-term trends that

this was on the cards. There is disillusionment with traditional

parties, corruption, efficiency and no trust in politics, and this has

led to the fact that none of them have been able to deal with the

problem of unemployment which is really at the heart of everything.

So can Macron really bring about this recomposition of French

politics and political parties? Can he break down the left and right

divide that has driven French politics since the revolution? Can

he facilitate the emergence of a centre in French politics. The

centre in French politics has struggled to exist. It has been

split. Most of it has aligned with the right because of the bipolar

rising system. This is something new that has happened with his appeal to

both right and left. As I was thinking about this over the last

weeks and months, I thought back to some work I did ten years or so ago

about the French exception which I know Jonathan has written a book on.

And I would like to quote something from a historian who wrote in the

preface to this book that we are all agreed that we are at a turning

point and an era is coming to an end. What he was talking about was

the fact that it looked as if at that time both right and left had

begun to bury their differences and had both signed the single European

act and it seemed the first time we would be able to talk about

consensus in French politics and move away from this revolutionary

divide and he said that the revolution was dead. At the time

this and the other two people -- that wrote the essays in the book,

that this was the beginning of the end of the French exception. The

title was the Republic of the centre. What they were calling for

was a centrist republic. And at the time, it was Francois Mitterrand's

free election in 1998 and he was talking a lot about opening, the new

nationalisation and privatisation, so there was good grounds to think

that this might be a new move in French politics and he pointed

Michelle Rocca, who tried to bring people into his government from

outside the normal French society. He had a method of trying to

conciliate differences which was unique to him. So this looks are not

to mix the moment for thinking that things might change -- this looked

am optimistic moment. So what will Macron's government look like and

how will he govern? Mitterrand did not get on with his partner at all,

but nevertheless there are reasons to be optimistic for Macron. What

he's trying to do really does look different. I think he has a lot of

support for people who are fed up with old politics and want to join

in his attempt to do new politics. His attempt to recruit deputies

through his Internet campaign looks exciting. They have all these

workshops and he's really determined to get parity. And there is plenty

of enthusiasm. There is reason to believe that he might succeed. But

the centrist republic that was hoped for did not materialise because it

got bogged down in devising politics in the 1990s, largely driven by the

Maastricht debate and its consequences. And when you look at

that Maastricht debate replayed in the 2005 Constitutional Treaty

referendum, you can see in this election those same factors at play,

for and against Europe. So that very close Maastricht vote, 50.5%, almost

50% of the population voted in the first round for anti-European

parties. So is Macron likely to do any better? Well, circumstances are

a bit different. We have the rise of the National front which means that

the stakes are really high. This is critical. If he does not get it

right we know who will be in next time round. We also know there will

be strong resistance from both left and right to maintain their

traditional positions. The Republicans are insisting they will

get a majority and have decided that Barron will be the Prime Minister,

so they want to have it in reverse, an absolute majority and they will

deal with Macron. I think it is unlikely they will get an absolute

majority. I'm going to say they won't. They are very divided and the

leadership has been hugely divided over the last few weeks. But maybe

the voters will say that this is their chance to vote that they did

not get in the first round because of the Penelope situation. Many

things have been said in the last few weeks that cannot be unsaid, and

there will be lots of local deals, and the threat of Marine Le Pen's

transformation of the National front which means she will try to suck in

those people who will potentially want to line up with her in the

future. Some have already said they have given their support to Macron,

so it seems to me that the Republicans are very fragile at the

moment and claiming to be rock solid but I don't think they are. In the

future, we can quite possibly imagine another renaming. If you

look at it, it has changed its name endlessly and will probably do that

again. The Socialist party, as we've already heard, it has a long-term

problem. Since 1983 the failure of the socialist experiment, Mitterrand

put this into a parenthesis and said it was a pause and we will come back

to socialism, but it is a big battle between socialism and social

democracy. What is the Socialist party? There have been various

people who wanted to change the name in the past and they have a glorious

history to call back on so they don't want to do that, but now it it

has come for them. So we will see that people like vowels will end up

there. There is hardly any ideological leader. The clear leader

on the left refused to do a deal with Macron for the first round, so

we will see on the radical left a rejigging of the cards. And your

final thought? My conclusion is that the legislative elections are

obviously crucial, because depending on how many seats people get, and

they have groups in Parliament and the voting share, that will be

critical. So we could have the absolute majority, a relative

majority, which is what was previously successfully worked with

in 1988, or we could have this coalition of ideas. A relative

majority and a coalition of ideas are quite similar things. I think

that is probably the most likely. So, I think that there will be an

elan after this macro and will do well in terms of gaining seats and I

think he will be able to govern -- Macron. This is despite the fact

that there is a lot of anger in the one camp, who are very bad losers.

So in the longer term, whoever he has to govern with, he has to clean

up politics, modernise politics and bring down unemployment. Can he do

this? Can he bring the centre in? Can he get people talking to each

other? My head says it is difficult but my heart says, yes, go for it.

And the French will say, he who lives will tell the tale. There was

so much anger at Mr Macron, that in between various things, he called Mr

Macron eight presidential monarch -- a presidential monarch, which is

even strong by French standards. Last but not least, Lord Peter

Ricketts. Let's talk about French foreign policy. We know that he is

the master of French foreign policy even if he does not get what he

wants in the assembly. Also Mr Macron, which we started to look,

his position on the EU. What is his attitude to the UK for the upcoming

negotiations in Brexit? Thank you very much. I know Emmanuel

Macron reasonably well. Tell us more. When I was the Paris

ambassador he was an economic staffer in the sham police aid. I

say that to reinforce what others have said, what an extraordinary

achievement. -- in the palace. To go from the economic counsellor four

years ago to being not only a new political head of government, like a

new Tony Blair or David Cameron, but a head of state. The French have

chosen a 39-year-old to represent them as head of state and be the

political leader. It is extraordinary. People have talked

about his style. I think people know that now. His intelligence, his

charm, a... He speaks English. He speaks English. Some French

politicians speak English... He is proud of his English. He has an

extraordinary capacity to persuade, convene, people have said Sue which

is real. I used to go into his office a lot as other people did and

thought, this guy is a brand. Everybody comes out of his office

thinking he is a friend. -- this guy is a friend. Many people said,

actually this young man, although he is a former banker, he is very

persuasive. Do not underestimate his capacity to convene. I think that

will be important. The other thing about him relevance to foreign

policy is unlike most presidential candidates, Francois said this, he

said what he intended to do. He campaigned for labour market reform,

free trade, strengthening Europe, things others have not dared say.

They have tended to say bromide, President Sarkozy and Francois

Hollande, finding they had hard choices in government. Macron saw it

coming and he has engaged and committed himself on these issues

and he has one. He has arrived with a mandate. -- he has won it. He has

got a mandate on the EU to strengthen and reform it, strengthen

the Eurozone, the governance of the Eurozone, work with Angela Merkel,

and that mandate fits his convictions that Europe is in the

French interest. I have heard him say it many times in private. Like a

lot of younger people in France idealistic about your-macro and he

would want it to be stronger because he thinks it is in the French

interest. -- about your-macro. He will go with the free trade

agreement with the US and no doubt will work with Angela Merkel on

other things. -- EU. Brexit will not be his priority. It is indeed an

affront to everything that Macron believes in. He thinks it is a

serious mistake. And a crime. Even a crime. I think he will use it to

move the 27 forward. That'll be his priority. And he will want to

attract jobs to France, taking what opportunities he can for France to

win from this. But I do not think he will be in the business of

punishment of Britain. I think he will want a deal. He is a deal-maker

by nature. He will want a tough bargain. He will want to be clear

that Britain has lost out by leaving the EU but he will want a bargain at

the end of the day and not a failure. I think that is relevant. I

am sure he will want to have his say in the negotiations, has Angela

Merkel will. When it comes to real deals, he will want to be there. On

foreign policy, he does not come with baggage. He has not been a

foreign policy specialist. For example he does not come in with a

curious pro-Russia slant of many leading French politicians or

anti-Americanism which has been in the French DNA since President

Charles de Gaulle. I think he will want France to be active on the

international stage, pulling its weight at the Security Council and

particularly he will want to work with the EU and see a rejuvenated

foreign policy. And see if European defence can mean anything real. For

the UK, I have talked about Brexit. I think he will be a tough

negotiator but will want a deal. I know that he believes in UK and

French defence cooperation. I have talked to him about it. He is not a

specialist but he understands the logic of the UK and France with the

premier military forces working together in operations and defence

equipment. Unless the Brexit deal is very bad I do not see that will

affect UK and French defence. But we might have to accept another drive

towards more European defence with him. Lastly, Calais. Has not been

mentioned yet. He has said a number of times that he will want to reopen

the deal. I do not think he means... On the fundamental deal allowing

juxtaposition of control on two side, bringing enormous benefit for

both sides. I am a bit puzzled he continues to make that point because

the situation Calais is a lot less bad than it was when I was

ambassador two years ago when we had large migrant intonations --

incursions into the tunnel and port. It is more under control. I think

what will happen is the president of the region Calais, he has been

gravitating towards Macron. I think he has an influential role, if he

has a ministerial role I would expect Calais to be higher up the

agenda because it is a big issue for him. I do not see why Macron should

particularly make it a priority and open up a difficult discussion with

the UK. I'm sure he would want to look at the issue but I do not think

it is a priority for him. Final sentence, this President genuinely

believes reforming France and having France active internationally,

overall I think it is a good thing for the UK. -- believes in reforming

France. A lot of food for thought. Some disagreement. Do you think Mr

Macron will get a majority and succeed in doing that, get a

governing majority? I believe in the theory of the magnetic attraction of

presidential power. If France has just elected this young charismatic

figure as president, there will be a strong momentum behind giving him

some sort presidential majority in parliament. So a group of En Marche

MPs, people say they will all be new and a gravitational effect on the

Democrat side, socialists and the centre-right, I think he can put

together some kind of governing Coalition. Susan is right, it will

not be an absolute majority but it will be a basis to govern. There

will be some turbulence but I think there will be a magnetic attraction.

One very quick question, it is almost yes or no, I know it is a

little bit unfair but I would like to get to questions, how realistic

is it to think Marine Le Pen could score really well as she announces

in the next few days a radical different name, you know, tries

again to detoxify and separate herself, Jonathan? I think she will

have a difficult time. She will be pushing the Republicans on her left,

as it were, they will be fighting to keep their position. A room for

expansion is quite limited. And if you noticed, in the last stages of

the presidential campaign she very much was talking to her base. She

was not enlarging. Her first round score was actually about seven

points below what she had at the beginning of the year. She will be

there in 2022, at the crossroads, if Macron falls on his face, of course.

But I think her room for expansion, especially given the nature of the

Republican front in the second round at Parliamentary elections will

limit her. That is a very brief answer! Thank you. I have a separate

question from you, sorry, I am moving on. That is very much about

the euro. There is a school of thought today, knives are already

sharpening in the National Front, that there is already a distance

today and that it was a big mistake for Marine Le Pen to actually follow

that speaking about getting rid of the euro and so on. Do you agree

with her? Yes. It came through very clearly in the debate last week

between her and Macron. The economic policy was full of holes. And when

she started being questioned about how would it work with the French

franc for individuals and, you know, the euro for transactions, it did

not make sense. One currency for this and one for that... She started

talking less and less about this. The polls showed the majority of

French people want to keep the euro anyway. I think that was a

nonstarter. Thank you very much.