Global Questions

Welcome to Global Questions with me, Zeinab Badawi, from Riga,

We're at the Blackheads House in the heart of the old town.

I am joined by an esteemed panel and a wonderful audience,

some of them are from here in Latvia but others have travelled to be

with us from the other Baltic states of Lithuania and Estonia and,

of course, welcome to you, watching and listening

around the world on TV, radio and online.

We will be taking questions from the floor as well as hearing

comments that have been sent through on social media.

Let me introduce our fantastic panel to you.

General Mark Kimmitt was the US Assistant Secretary of State

for political military affairs under President George W Bush.

He was a senior Nato commander and served in Bosnia,

Edward Lozansky is President of the American University in Moscow

He left the Soviet Union and lived in the US but now divides his time

From Sweden, we have Anna Wieslander, Secretary General

She is also northern Europe director at the Atlantic Council think-tank.

Artis Pabriks is a seasoned Latvian politician and has been a member

of the European Parliament since 2014, before that he was

Latvia's Foreign and Defence Minister.

And James Rubin was US Assistant Secretary of State

for Public affairs under President Clinton and has also

He is now an international journalist and commentator.

To what extent is the US going to isolate itself

How can they change the behaviour of President Putin and what will be

the consequences for us in the Baltic states?

Is the United States going to isolate itself?

Perhaps we will go to you first, Mark Kimmitt?

I don't think the United States is going to isolate itself at all.

The United States is a world trader and a world power.

We cannot save ourselves, we cannot be more secure

It's just not going to happen, it cannot happen.

I hope Mark is right but I fear he is wrong.

And that is that our President has made a decision,

he has made a decision to put America first and that is a phrase

It means that the United States is going to pay less attention

to the rest of the world, it is not going to play

the leadership role it has played since World War II ended and that

enlightened self interest that we played for 50 years

is what helped Europe stay peaceful, it is what helped the Soviet Union

collapse and it is what helped the Baltic states be safe

If the United States does what President Trump has promised,

I am worried, worried that Putin might get the wrong idea.

When President Trump says that Nato does not matter,

I am worried about what will happen to the Baltics.

Maybe I am the only one in this room, I do not know about Mark,

And the reason I did that is because his foreign policy,

he says he wants to improve relations with Russia and I think

that if this happens, and I am not sure if it will,

United States, Russia, Europe, all of the Baltic states,

because those Baltic countries control 95% of all nuclear weapons,

if they are friends, everyone will benefit.

Anyone who is against this policy of the United States and Russia

The question was, is United States going to isolate itself?

I do not think you can say it will be more isolationist

There is protectionism of borders, trade, people and jobs.

At least that is the agenda that President Trump will address.

I believe that we will see more activism towards fighting terrorism,

we have already seen that in the past days.

Stepping up on fighting terrorism in Somalia, for instance.

But there will be a shift and I agree, I think there will be

more space for other actors as well in the world because there will be

a focus on America first but America will not lead the global scene

I did not vote for Donald Trump and I hope I will never have to vote

for Putin or any other Russian President.

We have certain worries on the European continent that

Americans are turning more protectionist and also more

isolationist and it is not the first time in US

From our perspective, we should try to do our best

to convince Americans that this is not the best way

If, in fact, the United States is going to be about America

first and isolationist, the American soldiers

standing here in Latvia have not got that word yet.

I want to go back to that question, can I ask you what is

Do you believe the United States is becoming more isolationist

Do you feel reassured from what you have heard from panel

members who say it is not becoming more isolationist?

In this part of the world, Europe, the idea that one country can invade

another country to take a piece of it, incorporate it into its own,

And my President cannot criticise that.

It is bad enough that you want to limit sanctions,

That is a fundamental constitution of American

That happened under Obama and not under Trump.

And it is just as bad, this is not partisan, you don't need

It is terrible, whether it happened under Obama or Trump.

Let's go to the next questions, please.

I want to ask, will Trump strengthen Nato?

In the event that Nato troops, the US trrop participation

in the region is downsized, can other EU countries and Nato

members fill the void that would be created by downsizing from the US?

If you are looking from the outside, the United States also

after the election of Trump have been sending supporters

to the Baltic countries and I personally take for granted

and I trust people like the Vice President, but of course,

since Trump is a young, new President, we have to see how

much he can work together with all of the other US

institutions and I would say that security in our region

depends on 50% cooperation between Washington and our countries

and a trust from Americans but the other 50% is transatlantic

ties between the United States and Europe, including the EU,

and here I see a certain cloud at this moment.

As it is, what is important for President Trump is to be clear

We will all expect this when he visits the Nato summit

in May, the European allies will listen carefully on what Trump

will say about Nato and Russia and strengthening the defence.

He also wants to strengthen Nato on fighting terrorism,

and I think everyone is basically positive towards that

The reason we ended up in that situation, the Baltic states

and other countries are afraid of a Russian invasion

and all this stuff, all of this is a process,

a result of Nato expansion in the first place.

I only repeated what a famous American diplomat and the architect

of Soviet containment, George Cannon...

Sometimes he was right and sometimes he was wrong.

It was a tragic mistake, in 98 Russia liberated

Eastern Europe and the Baltic States...

You were under Soviet occupation and Russia liberated you.

I don't think we're going to resolve the question of who exactly

19 US senators voted against that and they are all Putin puppets.

In answer to the question is, under Donald Trump, what do

Donald Trump has to take care of the interests

of the United States first, Nato countries, if you want

the United States to protect them, they have to pay.

He has said that but the Nato chief has welcomed the fact

that there is so much focus being put on Trump's comments saying

that all Nato member states must pay their 2% of GDP...

If the US and Russia become friends, there will be no

Ladies and gentlemen, what you're hearing is actually

alternative facts on BBC News!

And what I wanted to say, I think that alternative facts

regarding the Nato expansion, at this moment it seems to me

that the people in the Kremlin are actually angry and upset

Nato did not expand in the Baltics, we decided that we wanted to be part

And another thing is about the liberation.

Of course Latvia or Baltic countries or many other countries,

have been for a moment liberated from Nazis by Soviet army,

but I already remember when I was a kid, on the streets

of Riga that I could not understand why these liberators did not go home

The Soviet Union and Russia, they're two different countries.

And from the beginning Russia wanted to be a part of it,

The question is about the security of this part of the world

under Donald Trump - here's what worries me...

That one of his closest advisers, Newt Gingrich,

talked about their Baltics as if they were a suburb

This part of the world, that's what I suggested.

And that is a mentality that is existing in our White House,

and when the time comes, this is all nice we've

increased our forces, that defence spending

is going to grow, and I'm all for that but this

This is about the fact that people are worried.

Vladimir Putin has already intervened in Estonia,

by kidnapping people and removing them.

He's invaded Ukraine and the reason people are worried

is what will the United States do in a crisis?

If your president doesn't believe that Nato is important,

no matter what the Vice President says, and the Secretary of Defence

says, the president may not behave in a way that brings security

Can we go to our next question please?

A gentleman from Latvia but who is an ethnic Russian.

My question is, what is the driving force behind Donald Trump's

Well, I think the driving force is every president for the last 35

years has started the presidency off by saying, "We're going to reset our

And everyone has been disappointed, not because the United States backed

away from that commitment, but the Russians have walked away

So I think that same thing may happen, so I would not particularise

I think you have to make that comment about every president

Mark, but don't you think only Russia is to blame

The Crimea would be part of Ukraine if not by the coup orchestrated

Edward Lozansky, the question was, what was the driving

force behind Donald Trump's policy towards Russia?

You live in both countries, what do you think is

He made a lot of very complimentary remarks

He kept saying, Russia can be reliable and an important partner

And this is exactly true, no one can deny it.

If Russia and the United States fight the Islamic radicals,

then they will defeat them and they can build on this

and make sure that there is peace in Europe for ever.

But certain special interest groups don't like it,

because they have an interest that Russia is more important for them

Russia wants to be a friend of all of you, all of you, yes, yes.

I repeat, in '91 Russia liberated Baltic states from communism.

Anna, what do you think is driving Trump's policy towards Russia?

Well, President Trump is benevolent towards Russia, it seems,

and also towards President Putin in his stance.

They view the world, to some extent, in the same way.

They don't necessarily see the United States as the unipolar

There is room for more powers, and that would enable also Trump

to put America first and make some other options than past

So I don't really agree that this is just an ordinary

I think he has, he wants more of a detente with Russia.

But as it looks now, his hands are tied, actually,

with congressional hearings on what's going on with Russian ties

The allegations about Russian interference in the last

I wish it were true that Republicans were doing so much good.

There's really only one or two Republicans who are speaking up

for the truth when it comes to Russia.

The rest of the party has capitulated, because there

is something unusual, let's face it, there is something

unusual about an American president who is talking so favourably

There is an unusual quality in the United States' president,

people in Hungary, the leaders there, authoritarian

dictators all over the world who for some reason,

and it's sad but it's true, think that Mr Putin's

authoritarian style, his effectiveness as a nationalist

There was a time in the United States when other

Republican presidents talked about freedom, freedom of the press,

freedom of religion, freedom of democratic rule.

Presidents like Ronald Reagan, George W Bush, George Bush.

All of them couldn't stand the idea that

an American Republican is talking about Mr Putin so favourably.

Admiration drives his policy, admiration for Putin?

Fortunately for us, government works slowly,

and right now the government is implementing policy

started by President Obama, to send troops into this part

of the world, to follow through on decisions Nato has

made, to strengthen Nato vis-a-vis the Russians.

We don't know what a President Trump policy on Russia will be, because

I think that Anna's right, that because of

the investigations that are going on, it will be very,

very difficult for Donald Trump to do something

dramatically in the vein that he wanted to do

You are refering fair to the fact last summer Nato announced

it was going to be stationing hundreds of troops in the Baltic

states and Poland and about 1000 Canadian led troops

Very quickly, I just want to ask Mark Kimmitt,

Well, he has, obviously he has a very core group

of people that he listens to, his daughter, his son-in-law...

But I also think it's true that he does listen

He does listen to his State Secretary.

Obviously both General Mattis and Secretary Tillerson have come

out and have firmly said, we are standing behind Russia.

And if the suggestion it is that the president will be made in

the vacuum of the Defence Secretary and the Secretary of State, then I

would suspect inside that facility that we call the National Security

Council, they will walk out, because they have

put their reputations and their beliefs on the line to support Nato.

We've seen General Mike Flynn, the National Security adviser, being

replaced by General HR McMaster, who is seen as not being

as favourable towards Russia as Mike Flynn was.

General HR McMaster spend a significant part of his career

in Europe, looking down and staring down the East Germans

and the Russians, and he hasn't forgotten that.

Artis Pabriks, you want to come in quickly here? It is a good thing to

have a good relationship with Russia. But we here in the Baltics

were probably there will be the first to benefit if there would be a

good relationship with Russia. But I don't think that at this moment we

can really succeed with this, because by nature current regime in

the Kremlin is an advantageous regime that wants to disrupt the

current order. Occupation of Crimea shows this. From that perspective,

the only write permission the West and Trump can take is resilient and

deterrence at the current moment, while keeping the door open when

possible to negotiate with Russia. APPLAUSE

Let's go to our next question from the audience. An Estonian. Thank

you. We Estonian 's have sent our troops to the hottest points in both

Iraq and Afghanistan. Also we are among those very few countries of

Nato who are paying 2% of their GDP on defence. APPLAUSE

Still... Still we are, I would say, a bit married, and you can guess

why. And the question comes, would you recommend us any additional

commitment we can do? -- a bit worried. Edward Lozansky. My dear

Estonian friend, that 2% you are spending is a total waste. Show me

at least one success of Nato after the collapse of communism. Not a

single success. Only success in raising money. American taxpayers,

including myself, have to do that. So one thing for Nato to do

something successful is transform, even changed name, because

Bulgaria... It's not North Atlantic, you have to change it to

international anti-terrorist organisation, and then Russia will

join, China will join, all European countries will join and will have a

common cause to succeed. Now it's a waste of money. Thank you. Anna

Wieslander, what kind of additional commitment would you suggest of the

Estonians? I think the Estonians are doing a lot of commitments, I think

it's good you spend 2% on defence. I don't agree with Edward, I think we

need that. If Russia wants to regain trust, they could return Crimea to

Ukraine and stop the War. APPLAUSE You know for global questions we

asked people to tell us their comments online and so on.

I will give you a taste of the kind of thing we have been getting on

social media. One says, do you think the appeasement of Putin by Trump

would lead to invasion of the Baltic states?

And another asks, does anyone really believe that Russia wants to attack

the Baltic states, and why should it?

You know what, actually, panel, take a pause. I will ask the audience

what they think about that question. Give me a show of hands, who

believes Russia really wants to attack the Baltics? Put your hand up

if you think they do. That is quite incredible. I would

say literally just a handful of people believe Russia really wants

to attack the Baltic states. Let's go to the audience again for

some questions. Let's take a couple together. Kate, who is Latvian, your

question. I would like to ask the panel about future relations about

the cyber attacks. How could it escalate in the face of repeated

attacks and what would you think the future tax and responses? And

another member of the audience from the United States. If any or all of

the Baltic states invoke Article five for any legitimate reason, be

it a massive military attack or a cyber attack, and certain Nato

countries do not respond, what would be the repercussions to those

nations? James Rubin. US - Russia relations relating to cyber attacks?

Well, unfortunately there has already been a cyber attack on my

country. It happened during the election last year. There was an

active cyber sabotage by the Russians. They did something that is

almost impossible to believe happened. It's not proven. I think

anyone who doesn't spend their day watching alternative fact news

organisations... APPLAUSE Knows perfectly well that Russian

organisations were involved in the hacking of the Democratic party's

efforts and that Russia's covert operation was designed... No CIA, no

FBI, no agency said this is true. Are you finished with your alphabet?

Edward Lozansky denying rusher in -- Russian involvement. Everyone in

American eyes and I think the audience knows rusher interfered and

committed an attack of cyber sabotage on our country. It will

happen in Europe. This is a reality, and if people want to deny it they

can, but the reality is Russia has invoked and spent a lot of money and

effort and resources on this and we are going to have to do a better

job. Listen carefully. Every US security... 17 intelligence

agencies. Nunn said it is confirmed. It is rumours, probably, maybe, and

there's a group of US former CIA and NSA officials who can tell the

truth. They said it was leaked, not hacked. Edward Lozansky, we have

general Mike Flynn saying to the Congressional hearing he will say

what he knows about US- Russia ties that kind of thing if he gets

immunity from prosecution. So the story is still unfolding. That's

right. Why say confirmed? Mark Kimmit, regarding cyber attacks, the

impact on US - Russian relations. Again, as we said earlier, we have

do get a grip with the issue of cyber attacks. There is nobody on

this panel who disagrees with that. It is a threat and a threat that

needs to be addressed. I think the more important question is the

question that was asked here. If a country invokes article five and the

rest of the Alliance walks away, I simply hope that is a hypothetical

and I do not believe that Nato can stand as an organisation or even

look at itself in the eye if it didn't, if it seeks to be an

organisation, if we ever walk away from our article five commitments.

APPLAUSE Anna.

There are mechanisms for that that I know of, but I would assume... It is

false to think if Nato does an act, no one will act. Countries will act.

They are not prohibited to act because Nato is not able to take a

decision to act. I think that is important. The US can act on its

own, other countries can act on their own, Sweden... I don't think

we would have a situation where no one helps. Perhaps they would be

disappointments and capabilities are not made available that should have

been made available. But I cannot foresee a situation where the West

would not act, in case there would be... What action would that be, not

military action necessarily for cyber? Cyber warfare retaliation I

guess would come... What kind of retaliation? I am not an expert on

that. I would simply say that they are not the only people that have a

cyber capability. Putin is playing a very weak hand, but he's playing it

well. Silicon Valley far surpasses anything that the Russians have, in

terms of cyber capability. As we said earlier, we need to get better

at it but rest assured we have an offensive capability and that is

what Nato is coming to grips with as well. Thank you. APPLAUSE

OK, let's go to our next question. From the Baltic state of Lithuania,

your question? The world will fall into a second Cold War if the two

great nations failed to negotiate? Could our world fall into a second

Cold War if the two nations failed to negotiate any differences they

may have or whatever, Anna Wieslander, I don't see that we are

moving into a new Cold War. I think we're moving into perhaps a bit of a

different world order, with some changes that we will have to adapt

to. But I think there are great possibilities in that world as well,

actually. I would not foresee, I think it leads the thought wrong to

say a new Cold War. I think we're actually in a new Cold War. Whether

negotiations will solve that will not... Our two countries have

interests that are completely different. Some interest such as

counterterrorism which may be capable of achieving... But what we

are seeing in places like Crimea, certainly what we're seeing in

places such as Syria, there are areas where we have significant

differences. My personal hope is that the points being made by

President Trump within two weeks of the Iranians testing him, he stood

up and said, we are putting the Iranians on notice. When the

Russians said we are going to expand our nuclear forces, he said we will

outspend you. The real question comes down to if the Russians want a

new Cold War, the Americans will stand up to that and we will stand

by our allies and will continue to deter them for whatever they may

seek. Can I just say a comment on social media, why are we over Lee

and unashamedly racist towards Russia and Russians? He says it is

OK to assume all Russians are bad and contact with Russians is like

communing with the devil. We need to focus on this in a mega sense. All

these questions boiled down to what our world has become when it is an

issue of nationalism. The reason why you hear me getting so worked up

about Vladimir Putin is because he has become the leader of a worldwide

movement which has praised intolerance. I worry that my

president, the leaders of Hungary, leaders in Europe, leaders in the

middle east, all of these people together don't understand that what

has made the progress possible we've had is when we've eliminated our

hatred of the other. When we realised we can disagree with

somebody without hating them. When we realised that fighting over

nationality is what the thread titled this together is. As long as

Mr Putin will be the leader of a worldwide alliance of neo-

nationalists, we will have a big problem. Especially if Mr Trump

joins the Alliance. APPLAUSE Thank you, James Rubin. Our next

question from the audience... Another question from Latvia. Good

evening, why is there no close coordination between the United

States and Russia fighting against Isis? President Trump defended the

idea give the United States and Russia should cooperate in his

campaign. What do you think are the main obstacles to achieve this

cooperation? Mark Kimmit Fuss. We certainly aren't fully cooperating

with the Russians in the fight against terror and Isis. We conduct

simultaneous operations but we don't feel good at this point it would be

worthwhile to share our intelligence with the Russians. But we have some

concerns about how the Russians are fighting Isis inside of Syria,

because they label anybody who opposes Bashar al-Assad as a

terrorist. So we have come a little bit closer to working with the

Russians on the fight against terrorism, specifically in Syria,

but we do have a long way to go. Anna Wieslander? I agree there could

be some steps, but I would not count that much on Russia as a stable

partner in fighting Isis. I think there is a big difference between

the US and Russia when it comes to fighting Isis. It's a next Distin

threat to the US, on top of the threat level for the US. It's not

that important for Russia. I disagree. If you take a look at the

Russian history, the recent history, they have been consumed by radical

Islamic terrorism on their southern flanks. You take a look at those

places... It's decreasing and I think the main interest of Russia

for working together with the US in the Middle East is to position

Russia as a global power and to execute, and to be a regional actor

in the Middle East. That's why you also see them now in Libya, we see

them in Afghanistan. I think what they want to solve in Syria is the

Civil War, and to first-hand maintain Assad in power and maintain

Syria as one state. Mark Kimmit? The comment I was referring to was the

notion of Isis being a threat to the United States... We are worried

about home-grown terrorism, but they're people killed in Chicago

last week than killed by Isis. On the other hand, the Soviet Union,

first and the Russians now, I think they think that radical Islamic

terrorism is far more affect their country than the United States does

or should. Our next question please. An ethnic Russian from Latvia. Dear

experts, considering serious media and peer pressure on the US

administration in the US to discipline Russia. Under which

scenarios would US and Russia normalise their relations at all?

Edward Lozansky Test Rex Tillerson. A very capable man, who knows Russia

very well. He worked with Russia, knows Putin and Sergey Lavrov and

the Russian crowd. He is coming to Moscow and he will bring some

proposals. We think he will bring some proposal that he calls a grand

bargain. You give something and Russians give something. This is how

you do business. Trump is not a regular politician. He's not

ideological, is a businessman. I think the first step will be on

April 12. Then you have to wait for a meeting between Putin and Trump.

After that, I think process will start. I'm very optimistic. I really

like this crowd, when you said Russia didn't... You made my day.

What is the quick Pruitt pro grow? It is still in the process. I think

it is very simple. Two issues, Syria and Ukraine are something that are

on the table right now. In Syria already military to military there

is some contact, Mark, you should know that. It is not full-scale

corporation but they are talking, it's good. Under Clinton, sorry

Obama administration, it did not happen. Ukraine, very simple. What

Ukrainians want, they want to speak their own language, Russian

language. A few million people and the Ukrainian government, first

decree when they orchestrated the coup was forbid Russian language. If

Ukrainians allowed to have Russian language... BOOING

So there is some room for negotiations?

They have what you call federalisation. I live next to

Canada. Canada has federal states and two languages. Why? Why

Ukrainians and Canada have better life than... Two languages, peace

for ever. Artis Pabriks, I am very sceptical about any possibility for

a grand bargain because there is no source for that. Neither in American

traditional real politics. The difference between Cold War and

today is during the Cold War, for instance, both sides wanted to keep

the status quo. At this moment, Kremlin's government wants to change

the status quo. If we speak about Ukraine, it cannot be chance for

Americans to give up something, because here it challenges the basic

fundamental relations rules. Will never recognise occupation of

Crimea. We must understand... APPLAUSE

And we must understand that it's not about language, Russian language in

Ukraine, it's about Russia's dominance over its neighbours like

Ukraine. It's nothing to do with language. Forget about this. Now

let's go to our final question from the audience, from Latvia. Is French

between this leader is possible? Everything Russia would like to

achieve in this region would come at the expense of American influence.

How can a leader who puts his name in giant letters on buildings work

with Oman who has a Mac image, riding bareback on horses? Panel, I

think you can all answer this question starting with you, Anna

Wieslander? I don't foresee a long-term friendship between

President Trump and President Putin. I would be surprised, due to various

reasons, for that. Mark Kimmit? They may have a friendship, that may be

irrelevant. This is an improperly named panel. It should not be Putin

and Trott, it should be Putin and America. What we've already seen is

that the institutions in America have put this president in check. We

have a system of checks and balances. If you want to talk about

Russia, you must talk about Putin. If you want to talk about America,

you need to talk about America with its checks and balances. APPLAUSE

Artis Pabriks? Looking at their characters, I would say if there was

friendship it will be short lived with lots of sparks. This might be

what we are afraid of. I will join the previous speaker and say there

are different political systems. America is still a big, democratic

country, and this is not about love and friendship, this is about

fundamental rights and principles. This is what I think Putin at this

moment, he understands, because even if he might be interested in

disrupting elections in US, I think he might be a little bit afraid of

what he is wishing for. Because this relationship between two leaders

might be not in his favour. Edward Lozansky, I think it is possible two

men like each other. They publicly stated they respect each other. I

think it is going to happen. Of course, Putin's job is much easier.

Because Trump is facing huge, huge, almost brick wall of the

establishment of the special groups who would rather see Russia as an

enemy rather than a friend. But in the end, there is no other way. If

we don't make peace between the United States and Russia, it's a

road to nuclear war. So let's pray these two men will make peace. It

will be good for all of you, all of us. James Rubin? I don't think

there's going to be a long friendship between Putin and Trump,

unless Mr Putin has a complete change of heart. Remember, for about

seven or eight years now his entire foreign policy has been about

weakening the United States, he has been troubled by the strength of the

United States and the weakness of Russia and everything he's done ever

since is designed to weaken the United States. But in the end,

whether it's Nato enlargement or something else, I would just say to

the people sitting in this room, given the danger that Mr Putin has

posed, aren't you glad you are in Nato? APPLAUSE

OK, can I just ask... What is your answer to your own question?

I believe infringer between men but probably this isn't going to be a

match made in heaven. Let's see what the audience think? Is French

between these two egocentric leaders possible. Show your hands if you

think it is possible. -- is friendship. I would say a

very, very small minority. Who thinks friendship between Vladimir

Putin and Donald Trump is not possible? A very, very clear

majority are very sceptical about the friendship between these two

leaders. I think that point can end this edition of Global Questions. My

thanks to our panel, and thank you to all of our audience here and to

you, where ever you have been following this edition of Global

Questions. From the capital of Latvia, thank you very much and

goodbye. Thank you for tuning into our look

at the weather for the week ahead. In the short

term we have had some grey weather -- great weather and more great

weather for the second half of the weekend. In south-eastern parts