Browse content similar to 20/04/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Hello and welcome to the One Show with Matt Baker. | :00:22. | :00:24. | |
Now, tonight's guests have something in common. | :00:25. | :00:26. | |
It's Europe's big test. edition of One Hundred Days. | :00:27. | :00:35. | |
France prepares to go to the polls in the first | :00:36. | :00:37. | |
Yes good evening from Paris, according to the polls one in four | :00:38. | :00:41. | |
France prepares to go to the polls in the first | :00:42. | :00:45. | |
Yes good evening from Paris, according to the polls one in four | :00:46. | :00:49. | |
French voters still undecided with three days to go. | :00:50. | :00:51. | |
Those polls couldn't be tighter ahead of Sunday's vote, | :00:52. | :00:53. | |
tonight all 11 Presidential candidates will be making | :00:54. | :00:55. | |
In just over half an hour, they will be taking to the stage | :00:56. | :00:59. | |
for the last televised forum before the voters decide on Sunday. | :01:00. | :01:02. | |
Course France isn't the only country with election fever, in the UK | :01:03. | :01:05. | |
the Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn has laid out his case ahead of | :01:06. | :01:08. | |
it is the establishment of verses of the people. It is our historic duty | :01:09. | :01:12. | |
to make sure the people prevail. Also, Fox News parts ways | :01:13. | :01:13. | |
with Bill O'Reilly after allegations Was the split because | :01:14. | :01:15. | |
of money or morals? Rupert Murdoch wants | :01:16. | :01:18. | |
to expand his media empire and the O'Reilly scandal risked | :01:19. | :01:20. | |
getting in the way. And there are few things as iconic | :01:21. | :01:22. | |
in America as a Harley Davidson. It turns out the famous Wisconsin | :01:23. | :01:26. | |
bike can teach us a lot Hello and welcome to One Hundred | :01:27. | :01:28. | |
Days, I'm Katty Kay in Washington, US politics has dominated | :01:29. | :01:41. | |
headlines since we began the era of Donald Trump, | :01:42. | :01:44. | |
but now there's another election This weekend is the first | :01:45. | :01:47. | |
round of the French election and the latest polls suggest it's | :01:48. | :01:52. | |
a tight race. In the next hour, French television | :01:53. | :01:55. | |
will start grilling the candidates, there are 11 of them in total, | :01:56. | :01:57. | |
but there are five in particular Each contender will get just fifteen | :01:58. | :02:00. | |
minutes to convince French voters they should be in the second | :02:01. | :02:08. | |
round run off. A quarter of those who plan | :02:09. | :02:10. | |
to vote say they may still change their minds | :02:11. | :02:16. | |
on who they will plump The big question of course | :02:17. | :02:19. | |
is whether the populist trend we have seen in Britain | :02:20. | :02:28. | |
and in the United States The histories of France and America | :02:29. | :02:45. | |
have often followed a similar path. The American Revolution that ended | :02:46. | :02:50. | |
in 1783 was quickly followed by the French Revolution of 1789. The | :02:51. | :02:54. | |
question is whether history is about to repeat itself this coming | :02:55. | :03:01. | |
fortnight. There are obvious similarities between Donald Trump | :03:02. | :03:06. | |
and Marine Le Pen. Nationalism, populism, protectionism, support for | :03:07. | :03:09. | |
Brexit and hatred of the mainstream media. Both are cast by the people | :03:10. | :03:14. | |
as revolutionaries in the battle against the establishment. There are | :03:15. | :03:23. | |
many things besides Marine Le Pen that we regard as could essentially | :03:24. | :03:27. | |
French. The food, the fine wines, the smell of burnt rubber in the | :03:28. | :03:32. | |
Paris Metro. Equally distinctive is the French style of thinking. The | :03:33. | :03:39. | |
programme of Mr Melenchon goes a long way to changing capitalism. I | :03:40. | :03:45. | |
am for Macron. I wouldn't vote for Marine Le Pen. France has become | :03:46. | :03:51. | |
increasingly inward looking. Far from the high-fashion critiques of | :03:52. | :03:55. | |
the left bank, there is no chronic unemployment. It is worst in the | :03:56. | :03:59. | |
city suburbs amongst the young and ethnic minorities. There is slow | :04:00. | :04:03. | |
growth and there is death. Amidst the doubt, the feeling that French | :04:04. | :04:08. | |
culture is itself in crisis. Since Charles de Gaulle founded the fifth | :04:09. | :04:12. | |
Republic in 1958, the French political system has been dominated | :04:13. | :04:16. | |
by the two party system. Now the Socialists and the Republicans. | :04:17. | :04:21. | |
Three of the four main candidates, Le Pen, Melenchon and Macron are | :04:22. | :04:25. | |
considered outsiders and it is quite possible that this second run will | :04:26. | :04:29. | |
pit the fight back against the far left. Imagine the consequences of | :04:30. | :04:33. | |
that not only for France, but for Europe. Traditionally, the French | :04:34. | :04:39. | |
use the first round of the presidential election to vote for | :04:40. | :04:42. | |
the politician they want. The second round to vote for the politician | :04:43. | :04:49. | |
they fear. The odds are still stacked against Marine the end, but | :04:50. | :04:52. | |
to predict the outcome this weekend would be foolhardy in the extreme, | :04:53. | :04:56. | |
given how wrong we all work over Brexit and Trump. | :04:57. | :05:00. | |
With me now is Pierre Lellouche, former Europe Minister for France | :05:01. | :05:02. | |
and member of parliament for The Republican Party. | :05:03. | :05:07. | |
You have just come from a rally. You wrote the terror legislation here in | :05:08. | :05:15. | |
France, which we will talk about in a second. A lot of people will be | :05:16. | :05:18. | |
confused in the United States in Britain, how is Francois Fillon held | :05:19. | :05:25. | |
on question facing the weight of allegations that he did and to be | :05:26. | :05:28. | |
within a couple of points at the top of the polls, it probably couldn't | :05:29. | :05:31. | |
happen in any other country, could it? Probably not. He has shown | :05:32. | :05:38. | |
extraordinary resilience and, at the same time, the schedule of the legal | :05:39. | :05:45. | |
procedure was such that it made it just impossible for the right to | :05:46. | :05:52. | |
have another candidate in effect. So, you still have the campaign from | :05:53. | :05:55. | |
half of the French people. That is one of the explanation will stop had | :05:56. | :06:01. | |
this happened much earlier, it would probably be different. We were | :06:02. | :06:09. | |
caught in a binder here. There was no way to have another candidate at | :06:10. | :06:19. | |
that point. The right-wing voters do want to change the system in France. | :06:20. | :06:25. | |
We have just had five years of Francois Hollande with a disastrous | :06:26. | :06:29. | |
impact on the economy and on unemployment. We have 1.2 million | :06:30. | :06:34. | |
more unemployment at the end of this five years and an enormous amount of | :06:35. | :06:38. | |
deficit and new taxes. A lot of people here want a change. All the | :06:39. | :06:43. | |
candidates simply agreed that the system is broken. What happens if, | :06:44. | :06:51. | |
come Sunday evening, we are talking about a second round with Marine Le | :06:52. | :06:56. | |
Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon of the hard left? What happens to France | :06:57. | :07:01. | |
then? Probably some kind of a revolution. We love revolution. The | :07:02. | :07:09. | |
country would be split into. Nobody even knows what would happen then. | :07:10. | :07:17. | |
In this particular case, a number of things will happen. One is Europe is | :07:18. | :07:21. | |
dead. Second, interest rates will shoot up, making it tragic for the | :07:22. | :07:29. | |
French debt. We have a debt now of 100% of GDP and most of that debt is | :07:30. | :07:33. | |
owned by foreigners. That means if the interest rates go up, we will | :07:34. | :07:38. | |
have a huge problem. Just to pay salaries. The crisis would be | :07:39. | :07:44. | |
immediate and the other half of the country will disagree, so if that | :07:45. | :07:50. | |
happened, we would enter a period of incredible instability. That is why | :07:51. | :07:58. | |
I believe that at the last moment, reasonable probably prevail. The | :07:59. | :08:03. | |
open they will say this is the man with experience, he can lead France. | :08:04. | :08:08. | |
One thing is sure, after Brexit and after Trump, the fact that two of | :08:09. | :08:15. | |
the key candidates are outside the system and want to go out of Europe | :08:16. | :08:21. | |
is already some kind of a victory for Brexit and Trump is, because if | :08:22. | :08:27. | |
the ad of Le Pen and Melenchon, it is nearly half of the vote. It is 23 | :08:28. | :08:36. | |
plus 19 or something like that. It is about 40%, 42%. Leaving Fillon | :08:37. | :08:42. | |
and Macron, who are pro-European ad about this level. It is a referendum | :08:43. | :08:49. | |
fought against Europe way. If if, by any chance we are in a situation | :08:50. | :08:52. | |
where the two extremists, right and left extremists are defined the | :08:53. | :08:57. | |
contenders, it would be a massive crisis for Europe and, probably, a | :08:58. | :09:07. | |
moment of historical instability in the country. We are out of time. One | :09:08. | :09:16. | |
last thing, it is not the most probable option. I do not think it | :09:17. | :09:20. | |
is the most probable option. Even though the collection is unreadable | :09:21. | :09:24. | |
at the moment. If you speak to any poster, they do not know. Thank you | :09:25. | :09:33. | |
for coming. All of these candidates are campaigning. Each has come from | :09:34. | :09:37. | |
a rally, they are going to rallies. Marine Le Pen was in Marseille. | :09:38. | :09:43. | |
Let's hear what she had to say. We have to protect the unity of our | :09:44. | :09:48. | |
people. We have to protect them, how to do that if we are in permanent | :09:49. | :09:52. | |
posterity? I want to protect the people I am part of, the people who | :09:53. | :09:56. | |
have seen he go and seen my children grow and he will seek my children. | :09:57. | :10:06. | |
Children grow. We just heard the view from the centre-right. Let's | :10:07. | :10:08. | |
get the view from the socialist camp. | :10:09. | :10:09. | |
With me is the Socialist politician Helene Conway-Mouret, | :10:10. | :10:11. | |
You were at the Senator for the expatriates abroad. I still am. | :10:12. | :10:26. | |
Hamon has just not cut off the ground in this campaign. He is | :10:27. | :10:33. | |
nowhere. Yes, unfortunately, after the primary which he won outright | :10:34. | :10:37. | |
and had a very good score, he was unable to launch a campaign | :10:38. | :10:42. | |
immediately stop I think it was about a month where he spent time | :10:43. | :10:47. | |
talking to his opponent on the left, Jean-Luc Melenchon, and to the | :10:48. | :10:52. | |
Greens. His idea was to have a big alliance on the left and then go | :10:53. | :10:57. | |
forward, except the wasted time. During that time Melenchon started | :10:58. | :11:01. | |
getting some of the votes and Macron was also campaigning. Hamon is the | :11:02. | :11:14. | |
expression of the time that has been taken off on the left and right. | :11:15. | :11:19. | |
Even the campaign is good, he is asking the right questions and so on | :11:20. | :11:22. | |
and has a good programme, the French are not into the deep debate on | :11:23. | :11:26. | |
programmes, on whatever is being offered. We are talking about | :11:27. | :11:32. | |
candidates, the personalities and so on. It is a funny kind of campaign. | :11:33. | :11:38. | |
You are still with Mr Hamon, but there are a number of your fellow | :11:39. | :11:42. | |
senators and fellow socialist who alerted tiptoeing over to the Macron | :11:43. | :11:45. | |
side, is that where you will be going in the second round? We will | :11:46. | :11:50. | |
have the same. My adversary in politics is the National front. I am | :11:51. | :11:57. | |
against everything they stand for. The economic programme is absolutely | :11:58. | :12:02. | |
ridiculous as detrimental to France. The against Europe. I will fight the | :12:03. | :12:14. | |
extreme right and... Is either wandered off to Mr Macron's side, | :12:15. | :12:19. | |
they just say this is the continuity candidate, this is really the | :12:20. | :12:24. | |
candidate of Mr Fernandes? It is not. Nobody forces me to be part of | :12:25. | :12:28. | |
the party. I will be part of it for as long as I am comfortable. Mr | :12:29. | :12:34. | |
Macron has greeted a new Centre for he has described himself as neither | :12:35. | :12:37. | |
right nor left. He wants to gather people who are on the centre, but | :12:38. | :12:43. | |
the centre is a void. Maybe it has to be defined that way. Maybe it is | :12:44. | :12:47. | |
something for the future. At the moment, it is not a clear ideology | :12:48. | :12:54. | |
with the purpose, if you like, for the type of society that we want to | :12:55. | :12:59. | |
live in and I think Hamon has been defining that. He has been talking | :13:00. | :13:04. | |
about ecology, talking about the place of work within our lives and | :13:05. | :13:08. | |
so on. He has asked the right questions. I am sure Mr Macron has | :13:09. | :13:12. | |
done that. The question you are asking is in the second round, if it | :13:13. | :13:17. | |
is against Marine Le Pen, of course I will vote for Mr Macron because | :13:18. | :13:21. | |
from a social point of view, he is most compatible with me and | :13:22. | :13:26. | |
certainly not Madame Le Pen. Good to get your thoughts. A big day for the | :13:27. | :13:31. | |
expatriates. There are 1 million voters in the UK. They will go to | :13:32. | :13:35. | |
the polls on Sunday and we will be watching what they do very closely. | :13:36. | :13:42. | |
I love the tour of Paris. I am jealous. It looks like a fantastic | :13:43. | :13:47. | |
evening. I can't imagine anyone will watch that long debate. Then you | :13:48. | :13:51. | |
were huge pool of everybody living in Paris, have you found there is | :13:52. | :13:55. | |
much excitement for Emmanuelle Macron. It seems we are living in a | :13:56. | :13:59. | |
time when people want a bit of excitement about the candidate. Are | :14:00. | :14:05. | |
you hearing about Macron? There are two things surprisingly today while | :14:06. | :14:08. | |
I wandered around the left bank am one was that I spoke to be for the | :14:09. | :14:13. | |
full knowledge, the taxi drivers. I have two or three taxis around town | :14:14. | :14:17. | |
and all of them said they cannot believe Macron is so high in the | :14:18. | :14:21. | |
polls. They say he is not really the outside candidate, he is the former | :14:22. | :14:26. | |
economy ministry, he is a Rothschild banker. He is part of the | :14:27. | :14:30. | |
establishment and he is very much Francois Hollande's candidate. The | :14:31. | :14:35. | |
media have jumped on his bandwagon. He is a smart guy, he talks very | :14:36. | :14:39. | |
well and he is up there I in the polls with a good chance to get | :14:40. | :14:42. | |
through. The other thing which surprised me, and maybe that is | :14:43. | :14:46. | |
because those on the left bank, is just how many people are talking | :14:47. | :14:50. | |
about Melenchon and how he can defeat capitalism. It is a strange | :14:51. | :14:54. | |
thing for British people and Americans to listen to, this idea | :14:55. | :14:58. | |
that capitalism is a bad thing. Among many French people, they still | :14:59. | :15:02. | |
think back to the banking crisis and what happened in 2007 and there is a | :15:03. | :15:08. | |
suspicion about finance in this country. He talked to a lot of | :15:09. | :15:11. | |
Marine Le Pen voters, a lot of Melenchon footers and they will say | :15:12. | :15:14. | |
we are voting for them because we want to put down capitalism. After | :15:15. | :15:21. | |
Brexit and the trump election here, all bets are off in terms of making | :15:22. | :15:25. | |
predictions. We are living in a very interesting and unpredictable | :15:26. | :15:29. | |
moment. The more from Paris in a moment. | :15:30. | :15:30. | |
In the UK, the opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has | :15:31. | :15:33. | |
made his first major campaign speech today, ahead of June's | :15:34. | :15:36. | |
He says he wants to 'overturn the rigged system' by putting power | :15:37. | :15:40. | |
and wealth back in the hands of 'the people', painting himself | :15:41. | :15:42. | |
We don't accept that the British people just have to take what they | :15:43. | :15:57. | |
are given, but they do not deserve better. In a sense, the | :15:58. | :16:00. | |
establishment and their followers in the media are quite right, I do not | :16:01. | :16:06. | |
play by their rules. And, if delivered -- Labour government is | :16:07. | :16:09. | |
elected, we will not play by their rules either. | :16:10. | :16:14. | |
What really strikes me as interesting about that, I have not | :16:15. | :16:19. | |
been fully chewed into the UK election today, but listening to | :16:20. | :16:23. | |
Jeremy Corbyn, I hear echoes of what I am hearing here in France and I | :16:24. | :16:27. | |
think politicians who are under the cosh and under pressure are starting | :16:28. | :16:31. | |
to steal ideas from the Donald Trump campaign. We heard Jeremy Corbyn | :16:32. | :16:35. | |
talk about the news and how he is against the system and the | :16:36. | :16:39. | |
establishment. Francois Fillon went into Le Monde newspaper and he was | :16:40. | :16:45. | |
due to go with a sit down interview and he walked out of that interview. | :16:46. | :16:50. | |
He said to them as a rock god, he said it is not the media that | :16:51. | :16:56. | |
decides the questions. Imagine that. Potentially the next president of | :16:57. | :16:58. | |
France Secci does not want to live in a country with the press are able | :16:59. | :17:02. | |
to ask whatever questions they want. It is quite extraordinary. The media | :17:03. | :17:09. | |
bashing, the theory of the fake media. Nigel Farage has said he is | :17:10. | :17:15. | |
not going to run. He has decided that your times is not a chance. He | :17:16. | :17:20. | |
has lost seven times, so he has decided he will not run again this | :17:21. | :17:21. | |
time. We broke the news that Bill O'Reilly | :17:22. | :17:29. | |
was being cut loose by 20th Century Fox. His departure marks a blow to | :17:30. | :17:34. | |
the Conservative movement in America. Mr O'Reilly calls the | :17:35. | :17:39. | |
charges against him by at least five women unfounded, but his employers | :17:40. | :17:42. | |
have decided his huge ratings success does not justify the | :17:43. | :17:43. | |
scandal. We have a contest on Bill O'Reilly | :17:44. | :17:52. | |
.com. Guess where Bill O'Reilly is common. Except Bill O'Reilly will | :17:53. | :17:58. | |
not be coming back to Fox News where he was the biggest star for decades. | :17:59. | :18:03. | |
Five women have come forward with claims of sexual harassment and the | :18:04. | :18:07. | |
revelation the settled out of court by Bill O'Reilly, and Fox News ?10 | :18:08. | :18:08. | |
million. Earlier this week, one former | :18:09. | :18:10. | |
colleague said the host regularly made passes at her when no one | :18:11. | :18:12. | |
was watching and described When major sponsors started | :18:13. | :18:15. | |
to pull their adverts, his position weakened further, | :18:16. | :18:18. | |
and now the parent company, 21st Century Fox, has | :18:19. | :18:20. | |
confirmed he's been fired. We are so happy he's gone and he's | :18:21. | :18:26. | |
no longer able going to be able to spit all of his vile comments | :18:27. | :18:30. | |
and everything that comes out of his mouth that's disparaging not | :18:31. | :18:33. | |
only to women but specifically to black women and black | :18:34. | :18:36. | |
folks all over the world. Last July, the boss of Fox News, | :18:37. | :18:39. | |
Roger Ailes, resigned over allegations that he had sexually | :18:40. | :18:41. | |
harassed female employees. Now the acting CEO, Rupert Murdoch, | :18:42. | :18:43. | |
has made an attempt to usher in a new era at the channel | :18:44. | :18:46. | |
by issuing an internal memo, also signed by his sons, | :18:47. | :18:54. | |
saying that the staff are committed to fostering a work environment | :18:55. | :18:56. | |
built on trust and respect, and this comes at a delicate time, | :18:57. | :19:00. | |
with 21st Century Fox trying to buy the remaining 61% | :19:01. | :19:03. | |
of Sky TV in the UK. Bill O'Reilly, who found out he'd | :19:04. | :19:11. | |
lost his job on the same day he met the Pope, | :19:12. | :19:14. | |
says that it's tremendously disheartening to leave Fox due | :19:15. | :19:16. | |
to completely unfounded claims, but all across America | :19:17. | :19:20. | |
he is the main talking point on exactly the type of show | :19:21. | :19:24. | |
he used to host. Let's speak now to the media | :19:25. | :19:26. | |
analyst Claire Enders, He has been a very significant | :19:27. | :19:55. | |
revenue spinner for Fox News for a very long time. Responsible by all | :19:56. | :20:00. | |
accounts for up to half $1 billion of advertising every single year. He | :20:01. | :20:05. | |
has been very significant and the major opinion programmes on Fox | :20:06. | :20:16. | |
News, in particular his, have been extraordinarily pro-Donald Trump. | :20:17. | :20:23. | |
You could say that Rupert Murdoch graded Fox News in 1986 and that | :20:24. | :20:29. | |
network created President trump. You think there was any morality in the | :20:30. | :20:33. | |
Fox News decision to listen to what was it really all about money? Was | :20:34. | :20:36. | |
it the younger Murdoch saying we do not want a news organisation with | :20:37. | :20:41. | |
this cloud hanging over? I am certain that James Murdoch would | :20:42. | :20:45. | |
have been angry about the accusations of sexual harassment. | :20:46. | :20:52. | |
Last summer when Roger Ailes was on hold, it happened very quickly | :20:53. | :20:55. | |
again. He appointed external counsel within a matter of days and he took | :20:56. | :20:59. | |
action very fast against the founder of the network. As Sir Alex Ferguson | :21:00. | :21:05. | |
once said, no player is bigger than the team and James Murdoch is making | :21:06. | :21:09. | |
absolutely sure that the level of corporate governance standards at | :21:10. | :21:14. | |
21st-century Fox is much higher than it has been and he is particularly | :21:15. | :21:19. | |
vulnerable at this time because, of course, in 2012, of, found he had | :21:20. | :21:23. | |
not behave with the highest standards of corporate governance | :21:24. | :21:28. | |
and he is actually being investigated as we speak by off, and | :21:29. | :21:33. | |
three separate crimes, but one of them is the fit and proper test. It | :21:34. | :21:37. | |
is extraordinary and wooden Phrygians murder to succeed in | :21:38. | :21:40. | |
acquiring Skype because, effectively, it is a second chance | :21:41. | :21:44. | |
for him and it is extraordinarily important for his vision of the | :21:45. | :21:48. | |
future of 21st-century Fox. Skype is a very significant business with 22 | :21:49. | :21:56. | |
million customers. We have delivered there. Thank you very much. Thank | :21:57. | :21:57. | |
you for joining us. Nine years since the global | :21:58. | :22:00. | |
financial crisis the head of the International Monetary Fund | :22:01. | :22:02. | |
has given an upbeat assessment It's probably welcome news | :22:03. | :22:04. | |
to Donald Trump on day 91 in office that Christine Lagarde says that | :22:05. | :22:08. | |
strong growth is returning Our economics editor, | :22:09. | :22:11. | |
Kamal Ahmed, has this report. Meet Matt Levatich - | :22:12. | :22:18. | |
the man who runs, and rides, The all-American company that | :22:19. | :22:20. | |
exports around the world. If things are going well | :22:21. | :22:24. | |
for businesses like this, then that is a signal | :22:25. | :22:28. | |
that the global economy is set fair. I asked Mr Levatich if the economy | :22:29. | :22:31. | |
is indeed looking up. When people feel more confident, | :22:32. | :22:36. | |
then they're willing to make, if you will, financial risks | :22:37. | :22:41. | |
of investing in something, improving their home, | :22:42. | :22:44. | |
buying a motorcycle. When they feel really uncertain, | :22:45. | :22:47. | |
they pull back and they wait. And so the election and so forth has | :22:48. | :22:51. | |
helped people feel more optimism. Running more smoothly | :22:52. | :22:58. | |
at Harley, and for the US. The official IMF forecasts have | :22:59. | :23:02. | |
certainly made for better reading, although they have | :23:03. | :23:10. | |
been wrong before. And for the head of the world's | :23:11. | :23:13. | |
leading financial organisation, We are forecasting | :23:14. | :23:15. | |
growth in 2017 at 3.5%. And that's a significant | :23:16. | :23:23. | |
uptake from 2016. But we need to make sure that this | :23:24. | :23:30. | |
momentum is sustained. When you come to a company | :23:31. | :23:41. | |
like Harley-Davidson, you are immediately struck, | :23:42. | :23:43. | |
not just by the size of the factory, Yes, some of that is down | :23:44. | :23:46. | |
to the presidential election. But a lot of it is down to the | :23:47. | :23:51. | |
return of global economic growth. A return so marked, some | :23:52. | :23:56. | |
are arguing, that ten years after the financial crisis, | :23:57. | :23:58. | |
the global economy has It is not just the makers | :23:59. | :24:01. | |
of big American bikes that Like so many American firms, they | :24:02. | :24:27. | |
are waiting to see if the better economic news is here to stay. We | :24:28. | :24:36. | |
sought Melenchon on his barge yesterday, he should have taken a | :24:37. | :24:40. | |
Harley-Davidson. Before you go, I want to show you something that has | :24:41. | :24:43. | |
been getting a lot of attention on social media. This is an official | :24:44. | :24:47. | |
photograph released by the White House of Donald Trump and some | :24:48. | :24:51. | |
visitors you will recognise. That is Sarah Palin. She also has two | :24:52. | :24:56. | |
friends with, Ted Nugent and kid Rock Salt and get this photograph | :24:57. | :25:02. | |
therapy and put on her Facebook page, also taken in the White House | :25:03. | :25:05. | |
in front of the official portrait of the former first lady is, Hillary | :25:06. | :25:12. | |
Clinton. This is shocking in America because there is a reference | :25:13. | :25:15. | |
surrounding former first lady sent former presidents. It is like the | :25:16. | :25:20. | |
Buckingham Palace and having a laugh against a portrait of Prince | :25:21. | :25:26. | |
Charles. You just don't do it. I am not sure that is reverence, | :25:27. | :25:30. | |
especially when we know what is behind it. She will probably get | :25:31. | :25:31. | |
told off on social media. You're watching One Hundred | :25:32. | :25:34. | |
Days from BBC News. I'm Christian Fraser, live in Paris, | :25:35. | :25:40. | |
where the 11 candidates for the French presidential election | :25:41. | :25:42. | |
will take to the stage in the next few minutes in the final set-piece | :25:43. | :25:45. | |
televised encounter of the campaign. We will hear from the man who said | :25:46. | :25:54. | |
Donald Trump would win and is now predicting Marine Le Pen will win. | :25:55. | :26:00. | |
One protester arrested arrested in Venezuela. We will have that in the | :26:01. | :26:02. | |
programme. Good evening. Beautiful sunshine | :26:03. | :26:15. | |
across north-eastern England today and the north-east of Scotland. The | :26:16. | :26:20. | |
east coast of Scotland had the highest temperature, nearly 19 | :26:21. | :26:27. | |
degrees. This was relatively bright here. For the most part it was dry. | :26:28. | :26:32. | |
We had a future was from this cloud which develops and moved southwards | :26:33. | :26:35. | |
through the day. This line of cold across Scotland is developing | :26:36. | :26:39. | |
weather front as well. That would take centre stage in the next 48 | :26:40. | :26:44. | |
hours because it is behind that introduce the colder air. Under | :26:45. | :26:47. | |
clearing skies in the south it would be a tad chilly overnight with towns | :26:48. | :26:51. | |
and cities will hold double figures. It will turn misty with four in | :26:52. | :26:56. | |
Southern counties with the extra moisture from the cloud that we saw. | :26:57. | :26:59. | |
Further north, the weather front is with us through the day. Not just | :27:00. | :27:02. | |
rain but potentially deal force winds. That's because the details. | :27:03. | :27:07. | |
It doesn't look particularly pleasant for the morning rush across | :27:08. | :27:10. | |
Scotland. There will be good breaks of cloud sunshine East of the | :27:11. | :27:16. | |
Pennines to start the day, that cloud is heading south. Northern | :27:17. | :27:19. | |
Ireland is cloudy and breezy. Further south we have quite a bit of | :27:20. | :27:23. | |
cold, mist and fog to get rid of it is a promising day. It should be | :27:24. | :27:27. | |
gradually try and bright with increasing amounts of sun is that it | :27:28. | :27:32. | |
was on. In that case, for most of us staying dry by the occasional | :27:33. | :27:35. | |
shower, we might see temperatures getting up to 14 or 16 again. That | :27:36. | :27:42. | |
is the likelihood in the south. Were fired 17 or 18 today, it will be | :27:43. | :27:45. | |
significantly colder, even if it brightens up because we have a | :27:46. | :27:49. | |
change in wind direction. That weather front pushes its way south | :27:50. | :27:53. | |
through Friday night and into Saturday. It is picking up the | :27:54. | :27:57. | |
Saturday morning. We have the north-westerly wind setting in that | :27:58. | :28:00. | |
it is brighter in the north Finland and Northern Ireland, there will be | :28:01. | :28:03. | |
some showers. Further south there is more cold again. With sunshine | :28:04. | :28:08. | |
together we will see 14 to 16 Celsius. It is notably called to the | :28:09. | :28:13. | |
north. It is a wicked weather front because the high pressure is close | :28:14. | :28:17. | |
by. The changes subtly across the north-west later on Sunday with | :28:18. | :28:21. | |
windier, wetter weather to enter the begin. For the majority, it looks as | :28:22. | :28:26. | |
if it was the dry, bright and not too bad temperature rise into | :28:27. | :28:29. | |
Sunday, especially with the strength of the sun this time of year. | :28:30. | :30:06. | |
Welcome back to 100 Days, with me Katty Kay in Washington, | :30:07. | :30:09. | |
The scene is set - 11 candidates for the French Presidency get ready | :30:10. | :30:18. | |
to appear on national television to sell their vision | :30:19. | :30:20. | |
And we catch up with Trump voter - college student Tylar Martin. | :30:21. | :30:27. | |
Three months into his presidency, is he living up to her expectations? | :30:28. | :30:40. | |
As we've been discussing throughout the programme - | :30:41. | :30:43. | |
this weekend the voters of France go to the polls in one of the most | :30:44. | :30:46. | |
unpredictable elections the country has seen in decades. | :30:47. | :30:49. | |
After Sunday there will be just two candidates left standing | :30:50. | :30:51. | |
and for more on how things are shaping up we can cross again | :30:52. | :30:55. | |
With me now is Bruno Jeanbart - who runs the polling | :30:56. | :31:13. | |
organisation OpinionWay, and the physicist Serge Galam. | :31:14. | :31:25. | |
You're one of the few people who predicted Trump would win. What is | :31:26. | :31:37. | |
the latest with the polls? We're predicting Macron winning the waist | :31:38. | :31:44. | |
with about 23% Fillon is at 20. The far left leader at it man 19. Only | :31:45. | :31:52. | |
two will qualify. It is not the same for the second run. But for the | :31:53. | :31:58. | |
moment we are expecting who will qualify on Sunday. Amazing that | :31:59. | :32:04. | |
Francois Fillon has hung on so long. The real phenomenon for me of this | :32:05. | :32:10. | |
election is that when you look at Brexit it was older people in | :32:11. | :32:13. | |
Britain who wanted to come out of Europe, here it is younger people | :32:14. | :32:17. | |
who are voting for Marine Le Pen who has the anti-Europe agenda. And | :32:18. | :32:21. | |
older people want to stay in the Eurozone. It is because they are the | :32:22. | :32:26. | |
people who have the most savings in the country and they are worried | :32:27. | :32:35. | |
about that. The young people are protesting by voting for Marine Le | :32:36. | :32:41. | |
Pen. They are not all voting from Marine Le Pen. The students are | :32:42. | :32:47. | |
voting for the left. But we have 25% unemployment for young people. These | :32:48. | :32:53. | |
people are voting for the National front. Taking that into account, if | :32:54. | :33:01. | |
you put Marine Le Pen in the second poke round, all the polls was a she | :33:02. | :33:08. | |
loses. You say she can win. When I use my modelling which allowed me to | :33:09. | :33:14. | |
predict Trump, I also get Marine Le Pen losing. However, what is very | :33:15. | :33:19. | |
new today is the fact that in order to implement what has been chord the | :33:20. | :33:28. | |
Republican front, people have to do vote against for the challenger. But | :33:29. | :33:33. | |
this time for many people to vote for the challenger is going to be | :33:34. | :33:37. | |
rather high, if it will be Macron Fillon or Melenchon, we have a | :33:38. | :33:46. | |
substantial section of voters who have an aversion to all of those. | :33:47. | :33:50. | |
There will be a strong dilemma, on the one hand they want to oppose | :33:51. | :33:55. | |
Marine Le Pen on the other, they would have to do to swallow a hugely | :33:56. | :34:00. | |
bitter pearl. The point is, on the day any excuse would be good to stay | :34:01. | :34:06. | |
home and forget to vote. So you are saying her vote is Woakes solid, if | :34:07. | :34:11. | |
she gets hers out, the others have to do, and if everyone abstains she | :34:12. | :34:17. | |
might get in. But people are saying they will vote against her. But will | :34:18. | :34:22. | |
they? This is the question. Using the simply mathematical formula I | :34:23. | :34:28. | |
can calculate the situation I can give you an illustration. In case | :34:29. | :34:35. | |
she has voting intention of 42%, the challenge challenger, 58, normally | :34:36. | :34:38. | |
she would totally lose will stop but with 90% turnout for her and only | :34:39. | :34:43. | |
65% for the challenger, she would win the election with 50.07%. This | :34:44. | :34:51. | |
is just one illustration. It is enough to have a discrepancy of | :34:52. | :34:59. | |
around 20% to compensate six, seven, 8% missing to win the election. Your | :35:00. | :35:04. | |
maths looks really complicated, but I will take your word for it because | :35:05. | :35:08. | |
you got it right last time. Do you think you gets it right? No. The | :35:09. | :35:18. | |
pollsters are really interested... In 2012, they got it pretty much | :35:19. | :35:26. | |
right. She got about 16% and at about 17. It shows you how far she | :35:27. | :35:31. | |
has come now. They did all right last time. | :35:32. | :35:36. | |
In last election here in the United States we heard about secret Trump | :35:37. | :35:42. | |
vote, I'm beginning to wonder if there is a secret Le Pen voter as | :35:43. | :35:43. | |
well. The Venezuelan opposition | :35:44. | :35:44. | |
is promising to keep up pressure on President Maduro by planning | :35:45. | :35:46. | |
more protests today, The demonstrations took | :35:47. | :35:48. | |
a deadly turn on Wednesday when three people were killed, | :35:49. | :35:52. | |
including a teenager. The nationwide protests have been | :35:53. | :35:56. | |
dubbed "the mother of all marches". These pictures came into us | :35:57. | :35:59. | |
from Caracas a short time ago - as you can see there's a big crowd | :36:00. | :36:02. | |
walking through the capital and, You can see police firing tear gas | :36:03. | :36:05. | |
canisters at the protesters. Joining us now to discuss | :36:06. | :36:12. | |
the unrest is Eric Farnsworth, Vice President of the Council | :36:13. | :36:15. | |
of the Americas. What do these protesters think they | :36:16. | :36:23. | |
can achieve in Venezuela? I think that is a good question. What is it | :36:24. | :36:27. | |
they are asking for? They are asking for the Government to simply listen | :36:28. | :36:32. | |
to their demands which is to say loosen up the economy to allow food | :36:33. | :36:37. | |
to be imported once again, to restore the health care system, to | :36:38. | :36:43. | |
restore security on the streets, to change the education system. These | :36:44. | :36:45. | |
are big demands and the reason they are not being listened to in any | :36:46. | :36:49. | |
meaningful way is they are the result of the model that the | :36:50. | :36:52. | |
Government has in place and does not seem to be able to change -- willing | :36:53. | :36:57. | |
to change. The way for red is an electoral process. Yesterday General | :36:58. | :37:07. | |
Motors plant in Venezuelan, an American plant, was basically | :37:08. | :37:09. | |
requisitioned by the Venezuelan Government, a bunch of vehicles were | :37:10. | :37:13. | |
taken in the process. That seems to be what despots do when they are | :37:14. | :37:17. | |
feeling desperate, they turn against foreigners and foreign entities. Are | :37:18. | :37:24. | |
they feeling the pressure? I think he is feeling increased pressure | :37:25. | :37:27. | |
from the international community and his own citizens. This was a | :37:28. | :37:33. | |
one-time thing. This is what people in Venezuela have done for a long | :37:34. | :37:36. | |
time, nationalising foreign companies, domestic companies, a | :37:37. | :37:41. | |
full-scale assault on the private sector. This is a concern in terms | :37:42. | :37:46. | |
of the recovery of the country, if and when there is an opportunity to | :37:47. | :37:54. | |
do that, the energy sector which energy Venezuelan relies on will not | :37:55. | :37:57. | |
be sufficient. You need a vibrant unproductive time private sector | :37:58. | :38:00. | |
which has been strangled by the Government. This is the continuation | :38:01. | :38:04. | |
of clearly an approach they have used for over 17 years and it is | :38:05. | :38:09. | |
very worrisome. I would imagine the sort of things will continue because | :38:10. | :38:13. | |
you are right, the Government is consolidating its power and it is | :38:14. | :38:17. | |
radicalising and it is unclear it where it wants to go from here. We | :38:18. | :38:20. | |
will watch how those demonstrations continue. | :38:21. | :38:21. | |
At the end of each week we like to check in with voters | :38:22. | :38:25. | |
on how the President is doing. for Donald Trump, to get their view | :38:26. | :38:31. | |
I first met college student Taylar Martin in December of 2015, | :38:32. | :38:34. | |
and this is how she described candidate Trump. | :38:35. | :38:39. | |
Passionate, driven, confident. Motivated. You are studying | :38:40. | :38:45. | |
international business. That is his sweet spot. Is that part of the | :38:46. | :38:51. | |
appeal? He's very successful as a businessman so I'd like to see how | :38:52. | :38:53. | |
as the leader of the United States. So, how is he doing now | :38:54. | :38:55. | |
on day 91 in office? Thank you for coming in. I know you | :38:56. | :39:04. | |
have exams coming up. How is he doing? I'm really pleased overall. | :39:05. | :39:11. | |
As the biggest setback so far has been health care reform. Otherwise I | :39:12. | :39:14. | |
think he is aggressively trying to fulfil campaign processes -- | :39:15. | :39:21. | |
promises. One of the things you are interested in is the American | :39:22. | :39:26. | |
economy and how he performs in that. How has he done? So far I think he | :39:27. | :39:30. | |
has really been trying to pass legislation in order to bring jobs | :39:31. | :39:35. | |
back to America. What kind of legislation are you thinking of? The | :39:36. | :39:41. | |
TPP, withdrawing from that. I am glad he did that. And also just | :39:42. | :39:48. | |
recently he reached out to the people in trying to... What you | :39:49. | :39:56. | |
think happened on health care? Why do you think he didn't manage to get | :39:57. | :40:02. | |
health care reform through? He said it was one thing he said he would do | :40:03. | :40:06. | |
during the campaign. I think there is too much division between | :40:07. | :40:11. | |
Republicans and Democrats in Congress. They can't work past it. | :40:12. | :40:15. | |
They aren't able to fully pass something that is beneficial to all. | :40:16. | :40:21. | |
What else do you want him to do in terms of legislation, changing | :40:22. | :40:24. | |
things, to getting Congress to work with him, what you want see happen | :40:25. | :40:29. | |
next? I think the bombings in Syria were a good start. Honestly, because | :40:30. | :40:36. | |
they set the standard that if, because Syria agreed not to use | :40:37. | :40:39. | |
chemical warfare, because if you break these promises there will be | :40:40. | :40:43. | |
repercussions will stop is addressing you say that, because a | :40:44. | :40:46. | |
lot of people who voted for President Trump did so thinking he | :40:47. | :40:49. | |
would not get involved in other conflicts in the Middle East. | :40:50. | :40:53. | |
Doesn't it bother you this is a president who might be more | :40:54. | :40:59. | |
interventionist than he suggested? I think overall he will do what he | :41:00. | :41:03. | |
thinks is right for the US. In setting that standards, the videos | :41:04. | :41:08. | |
were heart breaking so I think it had from his heartstrings. I know | :41:09. | :41:13. | |
you did not want to tell friends of yours that you were voting for Trump | :41:14. | :41:17. | |
during the campaign. Do unique now feel happy to say you voted for him? | :41:18. | :41:23. | |
It is what it is when you go on the BBC. Everyone knows what your | :41:24. | :41:27. | |
opinions are. I think I've lost some friends that way. But it is what I | :41:28. | :41:29. | |
believe. Thank you for coming in. Is interesting is in it that you | :41:30. | :41:39. | |
hear someone like her, who didn't want to tell her friends she was | :41:40. | :41:42. | |
voted the Donald Trump, but is clearly happy with the direction he | :41:43. | :41:45. | |
is taking. Particularly on the economic front. Very interesting. | :41:46. | :41:52. | |
And of course it applies here in France. But we don't know where | :41:53. | :41:57. | |
those shy voters will go. One in four are either undecided or will | :41:58. | :42:00. | |
change their minds once they get into the box, which is why with | :42:01. | :42:05. | |
those 11 candidates on the television tonight they will be | :42:06. | :42:08. | |
hoping to squeeze another few thousand votes out of the system. | :42:09. | :42:12. | |
You lived in Paris and when you live there the National front had a | :42:13. | :42:17. | |
different image. Going back now, do you get the impression the French | :42:18. | :42:20. | |
believe the party has changed under Marine Le Pen? No doubt. I was here | :42:21. | :42:32. | |
in 2012 when she became the leader. Under her father it was very | :42:33. | :42:36. | |
different. Though she has softened the party. The DNA of the party, | :42:37. | :42:41. | |
some say, is very much the same, but she has softened it. That is why you | :42:42. | :42:45. | |
see young people on campus is up and down the country prepared to vote | :42:46. | :42:58. | |
for her. Waddle were surprises me,. -- the French want a different | :42:59. | :43:01. | |
system to the one they have at the moment. | :43:02. | :43:04. |