20/04/2017 100 Days


20/04/2017

As President Trump takes office, Katty Kay in Washington and Christian Fraser in London report on the events that are shaping our world.


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Transcript


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Hello and welcome to the One Show with Matt Baker.

:00:22.:00:24.

Now, tonight's guests have something in common.

:00:25.:00:26.

It's Europe's big test. edition of One Hundred Days.

:00:27.:00:35.

France prepares to go to the polls in the first

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Yes good evening from Paris, according to the polls one in four

:00:38.:00:41.

France prepares to go to the polls in the first

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Yes good evening from Paris, according to the polls one in four

:00:46.:00:49.

French voters still undecided with three days to go.

:00:50.:00:51.

Those polls couldn't be tighter ahead of Sunday's vote,

:00:52.:00:53.

tonight all 11 Presidential candidates will be making

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In just over half an hour, they will be taking to the stage

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for the last televised forum before the voters decide on Sunday.

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Course France isn't the only country with election fever, in the UK

:01:03.:01:05.

the Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn has laid out his case ahead of

:01:06.:01:08.

it is the establishment of verses of the people. It is our historic duty

:01:09.:01:12.

to make sure the people prevail. Also, Fox News parts ways

:01:13.:01:13.

with Bill O'Reilly after allegations Was the split because

:01:14.:01:15.

of money or morals? Rupert Murdoch wants

:01:16.:01:18.

to expand his media empire and the O'Reilly scandal risked

:01:19.:01:20.

getting in the way. And there are few things as iconic

:01:21.:01:22.

in America as a Harley Davidson. It turns out the famous Wisconsin

:01:23.:01:26.

bike can teach us a lot Hello and welcome to One Hundred

:01:27.:01:28.

Days, I'm Katty Kay in Washington, US politics has dominated

:01:29.:01:41.

headlines since we began the era of Donald Trump,

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but now there's another election This weekend is the first

:01:45.:01:47.

round of the French election and the latest polls suggest it's

:01:48.:01:52.

a tight race. In the next hour, French television

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will start grilling the candidates, there are 11 of them in total,

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but there are five in particular Each contender will get just fifteen

:01:58.:02:00.

minutes to convince French voters they should be in the second

:02:01.:02:08.

round run off. A quarter of those who plan

:02:09.:02:10.

to vote say they may still change their minds

:02:11.:02:16.

on who they will plump The big question of course

:02:17.:02:19.

is whether the populist trend we have seen in Britain

:02:20.:02:28.

and in the United States The histories of France and America

:02:29.:02:45.

have often followed a similar path. The American Revolution that ended

:02:46.:02:50.

in 1783 was quickly followed by the French Revolution of 1789. The

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question is whether history is about to repeat itself this coming

:02:55.:03:01.

fortnight. There are obvious similarities between Donald Trump

:03:02.:03:06.

and Marine Le Pen. Nationalism, populism, protectionism, support for

:03:07.:03:09.

Brexit and hatred of the mainstream media. Both are cast by the people

:03:10.:03:14.

as revolutionaries in the battle against the establishment. There are

:03:15.:03:23.

many things besides Marine Le Pen that we regard as could essentially

:03:24.:03:27.

French. The food, the fine wines, the smell of burnt rubber in the

:03:28.:03:32.

Paris Metro. Equally distinctive is the French style of thinking. The

:03:33.:03:39.

programme of Mr Melenchon goes a long way to changing capitalism. I

:03:40.:03:45.

am for Macron. I wouldn't vote for Marine Le Pen. France has become

:03:46.:03:51.

increasingly inward looking. Far from the high-fashion critiques of

:03:52.:03:55.

the left bank, there is no chronic unemployment. It is worst in the

:03:56.:03:59.

city suburbs amongst the young and ethnic minorities. There is slow

:04:00.:04:03.

growth and there is death. Amidst the doubt, the feeling that French

:04:04.:04:08.

culture is itself in crisis. Since Charles de Gaulle founded the fifth

:04:09.:04:12.

Republic in 1958, the French political system has been dominated

:04:13.:04:16.

by the two party system. Now the Socialists and the Republicans.

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Three of the four main candidates, Le Pen, Melenchon and Macron are

:04:22.:04:25.

considered outsiders and it is quite possible that this second run will

:04:26.:04:29.

pit the fight back against the far left. Imagine the consequences of

:04:30.:04:33.

that not only for France, but for Europe. Traditionally, the French

:04:34.:04:39.

use the first round of the presidential election to vote for

:04:40.:04:42.

the politician they want. The second round to vote for the politician

:04:43.:04:49.

they fear. The odds are still stacked against Marine the end, but

:04:50.:04:52.

to predict the outcome this weekend would be foolhardy in the extreme,

:04:53.:04:56.

given how wrong we all work over Brexit and Trump.

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With me now is Pierre Lellouche, former Europe Minister for France

:05:01.:05:02.

and member of parliament for The Republican Party.

:05:03.:05:07.

You have just come from a rally. You wrote the terror legislation here in

:05:08.:05:15.

France, which we will talk about in a second. A lot of people will be

:05:16.:05:18.

confused in the United States in Britain, how is Francois Fillon held

:05:19.:05:25.

on question facing the weight of allegations that he did and to be

:05:26.:05:28.

within a couple of points at the top of the polls, it probably couldn't

:05:29.:05:31.

happen in any other country, could it? Probably not. He has shown

:05:32.:05:38.

extraordinary resilience and, at the same time, the schedule of the legal

:05:39.:05:45.

procedure was such that it made it just impossible for the right to

:05:46.:05:52.

have another candidate in effect. So, you still have the campaign from

:05:53.:05:55.

half of the French people. That is one of the explanation will stop had

:05:56.:06:01.

this happened much earlier, it would probably be different. We were

:06:02.:06:09.

caught in a binder here. There was no way to have another candidate at

:06:10.:06:19.

that point. The right-wing voters do want to change the system in France.

:06:20.:06:25.

We have just had five years of Francois Hollande with a disastrous

:06:26.:06:29.

impact on the economy and on unemployment. We have 1.2 million

:06:30.:06:34.

more unemployment at the end of this five years and an enormous amount of

:06:35.:06:38.

deficit and new taxes. A lot of people here want a change. All the

:06:39.:06:43.

candidates simply agreed that the system is broken. What happens if,

:06:44.:06:51.

come Sunday evening, we are talking about a second round with Marine Le

:06:52.:06:56.

Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon of the hard left? What happens to France

:06:57.:07:01.

then? Probably some kind of a revolution. We love revolution. The

:07:02.:07:09.

country would be split into. Nobody even knows what would happen then.

:07:10.:07:17.

In this particular case, a number of things will happen. One is Europe is

:07:18.:07:21.

dead. Second, interest rates will shoot up, making it tragic for the

:07:22.:07:29.

French debt. We have a debt now of 100% of GDP and most of that debt is

:07:30.:07:33.

owned by foreigners. That means if the interest rates go up, we will

:07:34.:07:38.

have a huge problem. Just to pay salaries. The crisis would be

:07:39.:07:44.

immediate and the other half of the country will disagree, so if that

:07:45.:07:50.

happened, we would enter a period of incredible instability. That is why

:07:51.:07:58.

I believe that at the last moment, reasonable probably prevail. The

:07:59.:08:03.

open they will say this is the man with experience, he can lead France.

:08:04.:08:08.

One thing is sure, after Brexit and after Trump, the fact that two of

:08:09.:08:15.

the key candidates are outside the system and want to go out of Europe

:08:16.:08:21.

is already some kind of a victory for Brexit and Trump is, because if

:08:22.:08:27.

the ad of Le Pen and Melenchon, it is nearly half of the vote. It is 23

:08:28.:08:36.

plus 19 or something like that. It is about 40%, 42%. Leaving Fillon

:08:37.:08:42.

and Macron, who are pro-European ad about this level. It is a referendum

:08:43.:08:49.

fought against Europe way. If if, by any chance we are in a situation

:08:50.:08:52.

where the two extremists, right and left extremists are defined the

:08:53.:08:57.

contenders, it would be a massive crisis for Europe and, probably, a

:08:58.:09:07.

moment of historical instability in the country. We are out of time. One

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last thing, it is not the most probable option. I do not think it

:09:17.:09:20.

is the most probable option. Even though the collection is unreadable

:09:21.:09:24.

at the moment. If you speak to any poster, they do not know. Thank you

:09:25.:09:33.

for coming. All of these candidates are campaigning. Each has come from

:09:34.:09:37.

a rally, they are going to rallies. Marine Le Pen was in Marseille.

:09:38.:09:43.

Let's hear what she had to say. We have to protect the unity of our

:09:44.:09:48.

people. We have to protect them, how to do that if we are in permanent

:09:49.:09:52.

posterity? I want to protect the people I am part of, the people who

:09:53.:09:56.

have seen he go and seen my children grow and he will seek my children.

:09:57.:10:06.

Children grow. We just heard the view from the centre-right. Let's

:10:07.:10:08.

get the view from the socialist camp.

:10:09.:10:09.

With me is the Socialist politician Helene Conway-Mouret,

:10:10.:10:11.

You were at the Senator for the expatriates abroad. I still am.

:10:12.:10:26.

Hamon has just not cut off the ground in this campaign. He is

:10:27.:10:33.

nowhere. Yes, unfortunately, after the primary which he won outright

:10:34.:10:37.

and had a very good score, he was unable to launch a campaign

:10:38.:10:42.

immediately stop I think it was about a month where he spent time

:10:43.:10:47.

talking to his opponent on the left, Jean-Luc Melenchon, and to the

:10:48.:10:52.

Greens. His idea was to have a big alliance on the left and then go

:10:53.:10:57.

forward, except the wasted time. During that time Melenchon started

:10:58.:11:01.

getting some of the votes and Macron was also campaigning. Hamon is the

:11:02.:11:14.

expression of the time that has been taken off on the left and right.

:11:15.:11:19.

Even the campaign is good, he is asking the right questions and so on

:11:20.:11:22.

and has a good programme, the French are not into the deep debate on

:11:23.:11:26.

programmes, on whatever is being offered. We are talking about

:11:27.:11:32.

candidates, the personalities and so on. It is a funny kind of campaign.

:11:33.:11:38.

You are still with Mr Hamon, but there are a number of your fellow

:11:39.:11:42.

senators and fellow socialist who alerted tiptoeing over to the Macron

:11:43.:11:45.

side, is that where you will be going in the second round? We will

:11:46.:11:50.

have the same. My adversary in politics is the National front. I am

:11:51.:11:57.

against everything they stand for. The economic programme is absolutely

:11:58.:12:02.

ridiculous as detrimental to France. The against Europe. I will fight the

:12:03.:12:14.

extreme right and... Is either wandered off to Mr Macron's side,

:12:15.:12:19.

they just say this is the continuity candidate, this is really the

:12:20.:12:24.

candidate of Mr Fernandes? It is not. Nobody forces me to be part of

:12:25.:12:28.

the party. I will be part of it for as long as I am comfortable. Mr

:12:29.:12:34.

Macron has greeted a new Centre for he has described himself as neither

:12:35.:12:37.

right nor left. He wants to gather people who are on the centre, but

:12:38.:12:43.

the centre is a void. Maybe it has to be defined that way. Maybe it is

:12:44.:12:47.

something for the future. At the moment, it is not a clear ideology

:12:48.:12:54.

with the purpose, if you like, for the type of society that we want to

:12:55.:12:59.

live in and I think Hamon has been defining that. He has been talking

:13:00.:13:04.

about ecology, talking about the place of work within our lives and

:13:05.:13:08.

so on. He has asked the right questions. I am sure Mr Macron has

:13:09.:13:12.

done that. The question you are asking is in the second round, if it

:13:13.:13:17.

is against Marine Le Pen, of course I will vote for Mr Macron because

:13:18.:13:21.

from a social point of view, he is most compatible with me and

:13:22.:13:26.

certainly not Madame Le Pen. Good to get your thoughts. A big day for the

:13:27.:13:31.

expatriates. There are 1 million voters in the UK. They will go to

:13:32.:13:35.

the polls on Sunday and we will be watching what they do very closely.

:13:36.:13:42.

I love the tour of Paris. I am jealous. It looks like a fantastic

:13:43.:13:47.

evening. I can't imagine anyone will watch that long debate. Then you

:13:48.:13:51.

were huge pool of everybody living in Paris, have you found there is

:13:52.:13:55.

much excitement for Emmanuelle Macron. It seems we are living in a

:13:56.:13:59.

time when people want a bit of excitement about the candidate. Are

:14:00.:14:05.

you hearing about Macron? There are two things surprisingly today while

:14:06.:14:08.

I wandered around the left bank am one was that I spoke to be for the

:14:09.:14:13.

full knowledge, the taxi drivers. I have two or three taxis around town

:14:14.:14:17.

and all of them said they cannot believe Macron is so high in the

:14:18.:14:21.

polls. They say he is not really the outside candidate, he is the former

:14:22.:14:26.

economy ministry, he is a Rothschild banker. He is part of the

:14:27.:14:30.

establishment and he is very much Francois Hollande's candidate. The

:14:31.:14:35.

media have jumped on his bandwagon. He is a smart guy, he talks very

:14:36.:14:39.

well and he is up there I in the polls with a good chance to get

:14:40.:14:42.

through. The other thing which surprised me, and maybe that is

:14:43.:14:46.

because those on the left bank, is just how many people are talking

:14:47.:14:50.

about Melenchon and how he can defeat capitalism. It is a strange

:14:51.:14:54.

thing for British people and Americans to listen to, this idea

:14:55.:14:58.

that capitalism is a bad thing. Among many French people, they still

:14:59.:15:02.

think back to the banking crisis and what happened in 2007 and there is a

:15:03.:15:08.

suspicion about finance in this country. He talked to a lot of

:15:09.:15:11.

Marine Le Pen voters, a lot of Melenchon footers and they will say

:15:12.:15:14.

we are voting for them because we want to put down capitalism. After

:15:15.:15:21.

Brexit and the trump election here, all bets are off in terms of making

:15:22.:15:25.

predictions. We are living in a very interesting and unpredictable

:15:26.:15:29.

moment. The more from Paris in a moment.

:15:30.:15:30.

In the UK, the opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has

:15:31.:15:33.

made his first major campaign speech today, ahead of June's

:15:34.:15:36.

He says he wants to 'overturn the rigged system' by putting power

:15:37.:15:40.

and wealth back in the hands of 'the people', painting himself

:15:41.:15:42.

We don't accept that the British people just have to take what they

:15:43.:15:57.

are given, but they do not deserve better. In a sense, the

:15:58.:16:00.

establishment and their followers in the media are quite right, I do not

:16:01.:16:06.

play by their rules. And, if delivered -- Labour government is

:16:07.:16:09.

elected, we will not play by their rules either.

:16:10.:16:14.

What really strikes me as interesting about that, I have not

:16:15.:16:19.

been fully chewed into the UK election today, but listening to

:16:20.:16:23.

Jeremy Corbyn, I hear echoes of what I am hearing here in France and I

:16:24.:16:27.

think politicians who are under the cosh and under pressure are starting

:16:28.:16:31.

to steal ideas from the Donald Trump campaign. We heard Jeremy Corbyn

:16:32.:16:35.

talk about the news and how he is against the system and the

:16:36.:16:39.

establishment. Francois Fillon went into Le Monde newspaper and he was

:16:40.:16:45.

due to go with a sit down interview and he walked out of that interview.

:16:46.:16:50.

He said to them as a rock god, he said it is not the media that

:16:51.:16:56.

decides the questions. Imagine that. Potentially the next president of

:16:57.:16:58.

France Secci does not want to live in a country with the press are able

:16:59.:17:02.

to ask whatever questions they want. It is quite extraordinary. The media

:17:03.:17:09.

bashing, the theory of the fake media. Nigel Farage has said he is

:17:10.:17:15.

not going to run. He has decided that your times is not a chance. He

:17:16.:17:20.

has lost seven times, so he has decided he will not run again this

:17:21.:17:21.

time. We broke the news that Bill O'Reilly

:17:22.:17:29.

was being cut loose by 20th Century Fox. His departure marks a blow to

:17:30.:17:34.

the Conservative movement in America. Mr O'Reilly calls the

:17:35.:17:39.

charges against him by at least five women unfounded, but his employers

:17:40.:17:42.

have decided his huge ratings success does not justify the

:17:43.:17:43.

scandal. We have a contest on Bill O'Reilly

:17:44.:17:52.

.com. Guess where Bill O'Reilly is common. Except Bill O'Reilly will

:17:53.:17:58.

not be coming back to Fox News where he was the biggest star for decades.

:17:59.:18:03.

Five women have come forward with claims of sexual harassment and the

:18:04.:18:07.

revelation the settled out of court by Bill O'Reilly, and Fox News ?10

:18:08.:18:08.

million. Earlier this week, one former

:18:09.:18:10.

colleague said the host regularly made passes at her when no one

:18:11.:18:12.

was watching and described When major sponsors started

:18:13.:18:15.

to pull their adverts, his position weakened further,

:18:16.:18:18.

and now the parent company, 21st Century Fox, has

:18:19.:18:20.

confirmed he's been fired. We are so happy he's gone and he's

:18:21.:18:26.

no longer able going to be able to spit all of his vile comments

:18:27.:18:30.

and everything that comes out of his mouth that's disparaging not

:18:31.:18:33.

only to women but specifically to black women and black

:18:34.:18:36.

folks all over the world. Last July, the boss of Fox News,

:18:37.:18:39.

Roger Ailes, resigned over allegations that he had sexually

:18:40.:18:41.

harassed female employees. Now the acting CEO, Rupert Murdoch,

:18:42.:18:43.

has made an attempt to usher in a new era at the channel

:18:44.:18:46.

by issuing an internal memo, also signed by his sons,

:18:47.:18:54.

saying that the staff are committed to fostering a work environment

:18:55.:18:56.

built on trust and respect, and this comes at a delicate time,

:18:57.:19:00.

with 21st Century Fox trying to buy the remaining 61%

:19:01.:19:03.

of Sky TV in the UK. Bill O'Reilly, who found out he'd

:19:04.:19:11.

lost his job on the same day he met the Pope,

:19:12.:19:14.

says that it's tremendously disheartening to leave Fox due

:19:15.:19:16.

to completely unfounded claims, but all across America

:19:17.:19:20.

he is the main talking point on exactly the type of show

:19:21.:19:24.

he used to host. Let's speak now to the media

:19:25.:19:26.

analyst Claire Enders, He has been a very significant

:19:27.:19:55.

revenue spinner for Fox News for a very long time. Responsible by all

:19:56.:20:00.

accounts for up to half $1 billion of advertising every single year. He

:20:01.:20:05.

has been very significant and the major opinion programmes on Fox

:20:06.:20:16.

News, in particular his, have been extraordinarily pro-Donald Trump.

:20:17.:20:23.

You could say that Rupert Murdoch graded Fox News in 1986 and that

:20:24.:20:29.

network created President trump. You think there was any morality in the

:20:30.:20:33.

Fox News decision to listen to what was it really all about money? Was

:20:34.:20:36.

it the younger Murdoch saying we do not want a news organisation with

:20:37.:20:41.

this cloud hanging over? I am certain that James Murdoch would

:20:42.:20:45.

have been angry about the accusations of sexual harassment.

:20:46.:20:52.

Last summer when Roger Ailes was on hold, it happened very quickly

:20:53.:20:55.

again. He appointed external counsel within a matter of days and he took

:20:56.:20:59.

action very fast against the founder of the network. As Sir Alex Ferguson

:21:00.:21:05.

once said, no player is bigger than the team and James Murdoch is making

:21:06.:21:09.

absolutely sure that the level of corporate governance standards at

:21:10.:21:14.

21st-century Fox is much higher than it has been and he is particularly

:21:15.:21:19.

vulnerable at this time because, of course, in 2012, of, found he had

:21:20.:21:23.

not behave with the highest standards of corporate governance

:21:24.:21:28.

and he is actually being investigated as we speak by off, and

:21:29.:21:33.

three separate crimes, but one of them is the fit and proper test. It

:21:34.:21:37.

is extraordinary and wooden Phrygians murder to succeed in

:21:38.:21:40.

acquiring Skype because, effectively, it is a second chance

:21:41.:21:44.

for him and it is extraordinarily important for his vision of the

:21:45.:21:48.

future of 21st-century Fox. Skype is a very significant business with 22

:21:49.:21:56.

million customers. We have delivered there. Thank you very much. Thank

:21:57.:21:57.

you for joining us. Nine years since the global

:21:58.:22:00.

financial crisis the head of the International Monetary Fund

:22:01.:22:02.

has given an upbeat assessment It's probably welcome news

:22:03.:22:04.

to Donald Trump on day 91 in office that Christine Lagarde says that

:22:05.:22:08.

strong growth is returning Our economics editor,

:22:09.:22:11.

Kamal Ahmed, has this report. Meet Matt Levatich -

:22:12.:22:18.

the man who runs, and rides, The all-American company that

:22:19.:22:20.

exports around the world. If things are going well

:22:21.:22:24.

for businesses like this, then that is a signal

:22:25.:22:28.

that the global economy is set fair. I asked Mr Levatich if the economy

:22:29.:22:31.

is indeed looking up. When people feel more confident,

:22:32.:22:36.

then they're willing to make, if you will, financial risks

:22:37.:22:41.

of investing in something, improving their home,

:22:42.:22:44.

buying a motorcycle. When they feel really uncertain,

:22:45.:22:47.

they pull back and they wait. And so the election and so forth has

:22:48.:22:51.

helped people feel more optimism. Running more smoothly

:22:52.:22:58.

at Harley, and for the US. The official IMF forecasts have

:22:59.:23:02.

certainly made for better reading, although they have

:23:03.:23:10.

been wrong before. And for the head of the world's

:23:11.:23:13.

leading financial organisation, We are forecasting

:23:14.:23:15.

growth in 2017 at 3.5%. And that's a significant

:23:16.:23:23.

uptake from 2016. But we need to make sure that this

:23:24.:23:30.

momentum is sustained. When you come to a company

:23:31.:23:41.

like Harley-Davidson, you are immediately struck,

:23:42.:23:43.

not just by the size of the factory, Yes, some of that is down

:23:44.:23:46.

to the presidential election. But a lot of it is down to the

:23:47.:23:51.

return of global economic growth. A return so marked, some

:23:52.:23:56.

are arguing, that ten years after the financial crisis,

:23:57.:23:58.

the global economy has It is not just the makers

:23:59.:24:01.

of big American bikes that Like so many American firms, they

:24:02.:24:27.

are waiting to see if the better economic news is here to stay. We

:24:28.:24:36.

sought Melenchon on his barge yesterday, he should have taken a

:24:37.:24:40.

Harley-Davidson. Before you go, I want to show you something that has

:24:41.:24:43.

been getting a lot of attention on social media. This is an official

:24:44.:24:47.

photograph released by the White House of Donald Trump and some

:24:48.:24:51.

visitors you will recognise. That is Sarah Palin. She also has two

:24:52.:24:56.

friends with, Ted Nugent and kid Rock Salt and get this photograph

:24:57.:25:02.

therapy and put on her Facebook page, also taken in the White House

:25:03.:25:05.

in front of the official portrait of the former first lady is, Hillary

:25:06.:25:12.

Clinton. This is shocking in America because there is a reference

:25:13.:25:15.

surrounding former first lady sent former presidents. It is like the

:25:16.:25:20.

Buckingham Palace and having a laugh against a portrait of Prince

:25:21.:25:26.

Charles. You just don't do it. I am not sure that is reverence,

:25:27.:25:30.

especially when we know what is behind it. She will probably get

:25:31.:25:31.

told off on social media. You're watching One Hundred

:25:32.:25:34.

Days from BBC News. I'm Christian Fraser, live in Paris,

:25:35.:25:40.

where the 11 candidates for the French presidential election

:25:41.:25:42.

will take to the stage in the next few minutes in the final set-piece

:25:43.:25:45.

televised encounter of the campaign. We will hear from the man who said

:25:46.:25:54.

Donald Trump would win and is now predicting Marine Le Pen will win.

:25:55.:26:00.

One protester arrested arrested in Venezuela. We will have that in the

:26:01.:26:02.

programme. Good evening. Beautiful sunshine

:26:03.:26:15.

across north-eastern England today and the north-east of Scotland. The

:26:16.:26:20.

east coast of Scotland had the highest temperature, nearly 19

:26:21.:26:27.

degrees. This was relatively bright here. For the most part it was dry.

:26:28.:26:32.

We had a future was from this cloud which develops and moved southwards

:26:33.:26:35.

through the day. This line of cold across Scotland is developing

:26:36.:26:39.

weather front as well. That would take centre stage in the next 48

:26:40.:26:44.

hours because it is behind that introduce the colder air. Under

:26:45.:26:47.

clearing skies in the south it would be a tad chilly overnight with towns

:26:48.:26:51.

and cities will hold double figures. It will turn misty with four in

:26:52.:26:56.

Southern counties with the extra moisture from the cloud that we saw.

:26:57.:26:59.

Further north, the weather front is with us through the day. Not just

:27:00.:27:02.

rain but potentially deal force winds. That's because the details.

:27:03.:27:07.

It doesn't look particularly pleasant for the morning rush across

:27:08.:27:10.

Scotland. There will be good breaks of cloud sunshine East of the

:27:11.:27:16.

Pennines to start the day, that cloud is heading south. Northern

:27:17.:27:19.

Ireland is cloudy and breezy. Further south we have quite a bit of

:27:20.:27:23.

cold, mist and fog to get rid of it is a promising day. It should be

:27:24.:27:27.

gradually try and bright with increasing amounts of sun is that it

:27:28.:27:32.

was on. In that case, for most of us staying dry by the occasional

:27:33.:27:35.

shower, we might see temperatures getting up to 14 or 16 again. That

:27:36.:27:42.

is the likelihood in the south. Were fired 17 or 18 today, it will be

:27:43.:27:45.

significantly colder, even if it brightens up because we have a

:27:46.:27:49.

change in wind direction. That weather front pushes its way south

:27:50.:27:53.

through Friday night and into Saturday. It is picking up the

:27:54.:27:57.

Saturday morning. We have the north-westerly wind setting in that

:27:58.:28:00.

it is brighter in the north Finland and Northern Ireland, there will be

:28:01.:28:03.

some showers. Further south there is more cold again. With sunshine

:28:04.:28:08.

together we will see 14 to 16 Celsius. It is notably called to the

:28:09.:28:13.

north. It is a wicked weather front because the high pressure is close

:28:14.:28:17.

by. The changes subtly across the north-west later on Sunday with

:28:18.:28:21.

windier, wetter weather to enter the begin. For the majority, it looks as

:28:22.:28:26.

if it was the dry, bright and not too bad temperature rise into

:28:27.:28:29.

Sunday, especially with the strength of the sun this time of year.

:28:30.:30:06.

Welcome back to 100 Days, with me Katty Kay in Washington,

:30:07.:30:09.

The scene is set - 11 candidates for the French Presidency get ready

:30:10.:30:18.

to appear on national television to sell their vision

:30:19.:30:20.

And we catch up with Trump voter - college student Tylar Martin.

:30:21.:30:27.

Three months into his presidency, is he living up to her expectations?

:30:28.:30:40.

As we've been discussing throughout the programme -

:30:41.:30:43.

this weekend the voters of France go to the polls in one of the most

:30:44.:30:46.

unpredictable elections the country has seen in decades.

:30:47.:30:49.

After Sunday there will be just two candidates left standing

:30:50.:30:51.

and for more on how things are shaping up we can cross again

:30:52.:30:55.

With me now is Bruno Jeanbart - who runs the polling

:30:56.:31:13.

organisation OpinionWay, and the physicist Serge Galam.

:31:14.:31:25.

You're one of the few people who predicted Trump would win. What is

:31:26.:31:37.

the latest with the polls? We're predicting Macron winning the waist

:31:38.:31:44.

with about 23% Fillon is at 20. The far left leader at it man 19. Only

:31:45.:31:52.

two will qualify. It is not the same for the second run. But for the

:31:53.:31:58.

moment we are expecting who will qualify on Sunday. Amazing that

:31:59.:32:04.

Francois Fillon has hung on so long. The real phenomenon for me of this

:32:05.:32:10.

election is that when you look at Brexit it was older people in

:32:11.:32:13.

Britain who wanted to come out of Europe, here it is younger people

:32:14.:32:17.

who are voting for Marine Le Pen who has the anti-Europe agenda. And

:32:18.:32:21.

older people want to stay in the Eurozone. It is because they are the

:32:22.:32:26.

people who have the most savings in the country and they are worried

:32:27.:32:35.

about that. The young people are protesting by voting for Marine Le

:32:36.:32:41.

Pen. They are not all voting from Marine Le Pen. The students are

:32:42.:32:47.

voting for the left. But we have 25% unemployment for young people. These

:32:48.:32:53.

people are voting for the National front. Taking that into account, if

:32:54.:33:01.

you put Marine Le Pen in the second poke round, all the polls was a she

:33:02.:33:08.

loses. You say she can win. When I use my modelling which allowed me to

:33:09.:33:14.

predict Trump, I also get Marine Le Pen losing. However, what is very

:33:15.:33:19.

new today is the fact that in order to implement what has been chord the

:33:20.:33:28.

Republican front, people have to do vote against for the challenger. But

:33:29.:33:33.

this time for many people to vote for the challenger is going to be

:33:34.:33:37.

rather high, if it will be Macron Fillon or Melenchon, we have a

:33:38.:33:46.

substantial section of voters who have an aversion to all of those.

:33:47.:33:50.

There will be a strong dilemma, on the one hand they want to oppose

:33:51.:33:55.

Marine Le Pen on the other, they would have to do to swallow a hugely

:33:56.:34:00.

bitter pearl. The point is, on the day any excuse would be good to stay

:34:01.:34:06.

home and forget to vote. So you are saying her vote is Woakes solid, if

:34:07.:34:11.

she gets hers out, the others have to do, and if everyone abstains she

:34:12.:34:17.

might get in. But people are saying they will vote against her. But will

:34:18.:34:22.

they? This is the question. Using the simply mathematical formula I

:34:23.:34:28.

can calculate the situation I can give you an illustration. In case

:34:29.:34:35.

she has voting intention of 42%, the challenge challenger, 58, normally

:34:36.:34:38.

she would totally lose will stop but with 90% turnout for her and only

:34:39.:34:43.

65% for the challenger, she would win the election with 50.07%. This

:34:44.:34:51.

is just one illustration. It is enough to have a discrepancy of

:34:52.:34:59.

around 20% to compensate six, seven, 8% missing to win the election. Your

:35:00.:35:04.

maths looks really complicated, but I will take your word for it because

:35:05.:35:08.

you got it right last time. Do you think you gets it right? No. The

:35:09.:35:18.

pollsters are really interested... In 2012, they got it pretty much

:35:19.:35:26.

right. She got about 16% and at about 17. It shows you how far she

:35:27.:35:31.

has come now. They did all right last time.

:35:32.:35:36.

In last election here in the United States we heard about secret Trump

:35:37.:35:42.

vote, I'm beginning to wonder if there is a secret Le Pen voter as

:35:43.:35:43.

well. The Venezuelan opposition

:35:44.:35:44.

is promising to keep up pressure on President Maduro by planning

:35:45.:35:46.

more protests today, The demonstrations took

:35:47.:35:48.

a deadly turn on Wednesday when three people were killed,

:35:49.:35:52.

including a teenager. The nationwide protests have been

:35:53.:35:56.

dubbed "the mother of all marches". These pictures came into us

:35:57.:35:59.

from Caracas a short time ago - as you can see there's a big crowd

:36:00.:36:02.

walking through the capital and, You can see police firing tear gas

:36:03.:36:05.

canisters at the protesters. Joining us now to discuss

:36:06.:36:12.

the unrest is Eric Farnsworth, Vice President of the Council

:36:13.:36:15.

of the Americas. What do these protesters think they

:36:16.:36:23.

can achieve in Venezuela? I think that is a good question. What is it

:36:24.:36:27.

they are asking for? They are asking for the Government to simply listen

:36:28.:36:32.

to their demands which is to say loosen up the economy to allow food

:36:33.:36:37.

to be imported once again, to restore the health care system, to

:36:38.:36:43.

restore security on the streets, to change the education system. These

:36:44.:36:45.

are big demands and the reason they are not being listened to in any

:36:46.:36:49.

meaningful way is they are the result of the model that the

:36:50.:36:52.

Government has in place and does not seem to be able to change -- willing

:36:53.:36:57.

to change. The way for red is an electoral process. Yesterday General

:36:58.:37:07.

Motors plant in Venezuelan, an American plant, was basically

:37:08.:37:09.

requisitioned by the Venezuelan Government, a bunch of vehicles were

:37:10.:37:13.

taken in the process. That seems to be what despots do when they are

:37:14.:37:17.

feeling desperate, they turn against foreigners and foreign entities. Are

:37:18.:37:24.

they feeling the pressure? I think he is feeling increased pressure

:37:25.:37:27.

from the international community and his own citizens. This was a

:37:28.:37:33.

one-time thing. This is what people in Venezuela have done for a long

:37:34.:37:36.

time, nationalising foreign companies, domestic companies, a

:37:37.:37:41.

full-scale assault on the private sector. This is a concern in terms

:37:42.:37:46.

of the recovery of the country, if and when there is an opportunity to

:37:47.:37:54.

do that, the energy sector which energy Venezuelan relies on will not

:37:55.:37:57.

be sufficient. You need a vibrant unproductive time private sector

:37:58.:38:00.

which has been strangled by the Government. This is the continuation

:38:01.:38:04.

of clearly an approach they have used for over 17 years and it is

:38:05.:38:09.

very worrisome. I would imagine the sort of things will continue because

:38:10.:38:13.

you are right, the Government is consolidating its power and it is

:38:14.:38:17.

radicalising and it is unclear it where it wants to go from here. We

:38:18.:38:20.

will watch how those demonstrations continue.

:38:21.:38:21.

At the end of each week we like to check in with voters

:38:22.:38:25.

on how the President is doing. for Donald Trump, to get their view

:38:26.:38:31.

I first met college student Taylar Martin in December of 2015,

:38:32.:38:34.

and this is how she described candidate Trump.

:38:35.:38:39.

Passionate, driven, confident. Motivated. You are studying

:38:40.:38:45.

international business. That is his sweet spot. Is that part of the

:38:46.:38:51.

appeal? He's very successful as a businessman so I'd like to see how

:38:52.:38:53.

as the leader of the United States. So, how is he doing now

:38:54.:38:55.

on day 91 in office? Thank you for coming in. I know you

:38:56.:39:04.

have exams coming up. How is he doing? I'm really pleased overall.

:39:05.:39:11.

As the biggest setback so far has been health care reform. Otherwise I

:39:12.:39:14.

think he is aggressively trying to fulfil campaign processes --

:39:15.:39:21.

promises. One of the things you are interested in is the American

:39:22.:39:26.

economy and how he performs in that. How has he done? So far I think he

:39:27.:39:30.

has really been trying to pass legislation in order to bring jobs

:39:31.:39:35.

back to America. What kind of legislation are you thinking of? The

:39:36.:39:41.

TPP, withdrawing from that. I am glad he did that. And also just

:39:42.:39:48.

recently he reached out to the people in trying to... What you

:39:49.:39:56.

think happened on health care? Why do you think he didn't manage to get

:39:57.:40:02.

health care reform through? He said it was one thing he said he would do

:40:03.:40:06.

during the campaign. I think there is too much division between

:40:07.:40:11.

Republicans and Democrats in Congress. They can't work past it.

:40:12.:40:15.

They aren't able to fully pass something that is beneficial to all.

:40:16.:40:21.

What else do you want him to do in terms of legislation, changing

:40:22.:40:24.

things, to getting Congress to work with him, what you want see happen

:40:25.:40:29.

next? I think the bombings in Syria were a good start. Honestly, because

:40:30.:40:36.

they set the standard that if, because Syria agreed not to use

:40:37.:40:39.

chemical warfare, because if you break these promises there will be

:40:40.:40:43.

repercussions will stop is addressing you say that, because a

:40:44.:40:46.

lot of people who voted for President Trump did so thinking he

:40:47.:40:49.

would not get involved in other conflicts in the Middle East.

:40:50.:40:53.

Doesn't it bother you this is a president who might be more

:40:54.:40:59.

interventionist than he suggested? I think overall he will do what he

:41:00.:41:03.

thinks is right for the US. In setting that standards, the videos

:41:04.:41:08.

were heart breaking so I think it had from his heartstrings. I know

:41:09.:41:13.

you did not want to tell friends of yours that you were voting for Trump

:41:14.:41:17.

during the campaign. Do unique now feel happy to say you voted for him?

:41:18.:41:23.

It is what it is when you go on the BBC. Everyone knows what your

:41:24.:41:27.

opinions are. I think I've lost some friends that way. But it is what I

:41:28.:41:29.

believe. Thank you for coming in. Is interesting is in it that you

:41:30.:41:39.

hear someone like her, who didn't want to tell her friends she was

:41:40.:41:42.

voted the Donald Trump, but is clearly happy with the direction he

:41:43.:41:45.

is taking. Particularly on the economic front. Very interesting.

:41:46.:41:52.

And of course it applies here in France. But we don't know where

:41:53.:41:57.

those shy voters will go. One in four are either undecided or will

:41:58.:42:00.

change their minds once they get into the box, which is why with

:42:01.:42:05.

those 11 candidates on the television tonight they will be

:42:06.:42:08.

hoping to squeeze another few thousand votes out of the system.

:42:09.:42:12.

You lived in Paris and when you live there the National front had a

:42:13.:42:17.

different image. Going back now, do you get the impression the French

:42:18.:42:20.

believe the party has changed under Marine Le Pen? No doubt. I was here

:42:21.:42:32.

in 2012 when she became the leader. Under her father it was very

:42:33.:42:36.

different. Though she has softened the party. The DNA of the party,

:42:37.:42:41.

some say, is very much the same, but she has softened it. That is why you

:42:42.:42:45.

see young people on campus is up and down the country prepared to vote

:42:46.:42:58.

for her. Waddle were surprises me,. -- the French want a different

:42:59.:43:01.

system to the one they have at the moment.

:43:02.:43:04.