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This is Business Live from BBC News with Sally Bundock and | :00:00. | :00:00. | |
All eyes on China, where leaders are gathered for their four day meeting | :00:07. | :00:12. | |
to discuss the nation's economic and social plans for the next five | :00:13. | :00:15. | |
years - but what tricks does China have left up its sleeve? | :00:16. | :00:19. | |
Live from London, that's our top story on Monday 26th October | :00:20. | :00:38. | |
A cut in interest rates at the end of last week has given | :00:39. | :00:41. | |
markets across Asia a boost but how optimistic can we be about | :00:42. | :00:44. | |
the Communist Party's ideas for the world's second biggest economy? | :00:45. | :00:48. | |
Also in the programme - Toyota is back at the top. | :00:49. | :00:51. | |
The Japanese carmaker is the best vehicle seller | :00:52. | :00:53. | |
of the year so far - it's overtaken Volkswagen as it grapples with the | :00:54. | :00:57. | |
And a new trading week has just kicked off across Europe - markets | :00:58. | :01:03. | |
are mixed as investors grapple with the latest earnings news from some | :01:04. | :01:06. | |
And we'll be getting the inside track from the only female | :01:07. | :01:13. | |
chief executive at one of the top ten global accountancy firms. | :01:14. | :01:18. | |
Keep in touch with us on social media - | :01:19. | :01:21. | |
Today we want to know what would be in your five year plan | :01:22. | :01:26. | |
How can China kick-start its economy? | :01:27. | :01:41. | |
China dominates the headlines this week. | :01:42. | :01:51. | |
China's leaders are to gather for a four day event in Beijing | :01:52. | :01:53. | |
today for its fifth plenum - whatever is decided there will set | :01:54. | :01:56. | |
the agenda for China's policies in the coming five years. | :01:57. | :01:59. | |
Top of the agenda, unsurprisingly it's expected to be the economy. | :02:00. | :02:03. | |
The government's new annual growth target could be top of the agenda - | :02:04. | :02:08. | |
with a cut of growth target from 7% to 6.5%, but some are speculating it | :02:09. | :02:12. | |
The party will also shift the focus away from a dependence | :02:13. | :02:20. | |
on exports and extensive investment in infrastructure to concentrate | :02:21. | :02:23. | |
There could also be an increase in social welfare spending | :02:24. | :02:31. | |
and push for further financial liberalisation, including promoting | :02:32. | :02:36. | |
the internationalisation of China's currency, the renminbi. | :02:37. | :02:45. | |
Dr Linda Yueh is a Professor at London Business School joins me | :02:46. | :02:48. | |
Good to see you. China very much charted a course in 2003 when it | :02:49. | :03:02. | |
started doing these plans, from a farming nation into one of mass | :03:03. | :03:06. | |
industrialisation. Now the process has finished, where do they see the | :03:07. | :03:10. | |
engine for growth in the future? They certainly see it in a new | :03:11. | :03:16. | |
sector, services. Something that would be familiar to advanced | :03:17. | :03:18. | |
economies, but for something like China it is a massive structural | :03:19. | :03:23. | |
change, from being a manufacturing power to having its economy already | :03:24. | :03:27. | |
predominantly driven by professional services, educational services, | :03:28. | :03:31. | |
restaurants. That transformation is not the only one they have to | :03:32. | :03:34. | |
contend with in this 35 year plan. They also have to work out how you | :03:35. | :03:43. | |
drive growth, when we move away from factories producing things that can | :03:44. | :03:46. | |
be sold by exports. They have to come up with more innovative ways to | :03:47. | :03:54. | |
sell exports, including in the services sector. Over the last five | :03:55. | :04:03. | |
years, they averaged about 7.8% growth. Do you think they will stick | :04:04. | :04:07. | |
with that will do away with that target? I think the growth target is | :04:08. | :04:13. | |
likely to be lowered. The 25 year plan, from 2011 until 2015, that | :04:14. | :04:17. | |
have an average growth rate of about 7.5%. They have pretty much exceeded | :04:18. | :04:23. | |
that. Looking forward, there is not a great deal of confidence. They | :04:24. | :04:28. | |
want to sustain that kind of growth rate, but I don't think they could. | :04:29. | :04:35. | |
It is more realistic to grow at 6.5%, or even lower than that. There | :04:36. | :04:40. | |
is no question, that growth rate will be the single target that | :04:41. | :04:44. | |
everybody will be watching for. I have looked at the five-year plans, | :04:45. | :04:49. | |
and there is going to be at least 30 to 40 qualitative, as well as | :04:50. | :04:52. | |
quantitative plans. The other one to watch for is what they do in terms | :04:53. | :05:01. | |
of the share of the economy coming from investment, compared to | :05:02. | :05:07. | |
consumption. Briefly, credit growth is vastly outstripping economic | :05:08. | :05:10. | |
growth. Do you think China will come up with a plan in time for its debt | :05:11. | :05:14. | |
mountain? They tend to say things like they want financial stability. | :05:15. | :05:18. | |
Yes, that is one of the reasons why they don't want to grow through | :05:19. | :05:22. | |
investment any more. A couple more targets to watch for, they usually | :05:23. | :05:25. | |
have a money growth target. That gives you a sense of how much credit | :05:26. | :05:30. | |
they want to unleash on the economy. Beyond that, I would keep an eye out | :05:31. | :05:35. | |
for overall rebalancing targets. They were pretty good in the last | :05:36. | :05:38. | |
one, but I think the next one is going to be a lot harder, especially | :05:39. | :05:43. | |
in terms of exports. We are going to leave it there, lovely to see you. | :05:44. | :05:45. | |
Time for a quick look at some other news: | :05:46. | :05:47. | |
It's not quite signed, sealed or delivered, but the | :05:48. | :05:49. | |
long-awaited sale of Japan Post and its subsidiaries is getting closer. | :05:50. | :05:52. | |
Shares in the main holding company for the | :05:53. | :05:54. | |
state-owned giant have been priced in the top of the expected range. | :05:55. | :05:58. | |
That raises 693 billion yen - that's about $5.7 billion. | :05:59. | :06:05. | |
Investors from Japan will be able to buy 80% of the shares, | :06:06. | :06:09. | |
with the other 20 available to international investors. | :06:10. | :06:14. | |
And bankers at Royal Bank of Scotland will soon be using Facebook | :06:15. | :06:17. | |
to communicate with colleagues, swap information and, even, | :06:18. | :06:19. | |
It's the first bank to adopt Facebook At Work and aims to | :06:20. | :06:23. | |
connect people across the company more quickly and efficiently to | :06:24. | :06:26. | |
'S been a busy day. Lots of companies out with earnings, we | :06:27. | :06:42. | |
can't imagine everything in the show, so please look at the website, | :06:43. | :06:45. | |
because they talk about stories as they break. This is about Phillips. | :06:46. | :06:50. | |
better-than-expected quarterly better-than-expected quarterly | :06:51. | :06:55. | |
profits, off the back of strong orders for US health care | :06:56. | :06:56. | |
businesses. We this earlier. They think it is all | :06:57. | :06:56. | |
about chronic they think they are going to be | :06:57. | :07:05. | |
doing well. I spoke to the chief executive earlier and he was talking | :07:06. | :07:07. | |
about the fact that one of businesses they are trying to sell | :07:08. | :07:15. | |
off, they have hit a regulatory hurdle in the US. That was one of | :07:16. | :07:18. | |
morning. Other stories, we can't imagine them more, more about RBS | :07:19. | :07:24. | |
and Facebook, quite an interesting new manoeuvre on the part of RBS. I | :07:25. | :07:28. | |
can't see us using Facebook at work. We would never do that, would we? | :07:29. | :07:31. | |
Never, Now, as Volkswagen deals with | :07:32. | :07:35. | |
the diesel emissions rigging scandal, Toyota is pulling ahead | :07:36. | :07:37. | |
in terms of global vehicle sales. Mariko Oi is in Singapore - Toyota | :07:38. | :07:40. | |
is taking full advantage of trouble Indeed, if you remember, in the | :07:41. | :07:56. | |
first six months of this year, Volkswagen overtaxed Toyota in sales | :07:57. | :08:00. | |
numbers for the first time, which was very exciting for the German car | :08:01. | :08:05. | |
manufacturer. As you say, as we have been reporting, VW now has this huge | :08:06. | :08:09. | |
scandal which affects its reputation, as well as sales | :08:10. | :08:13. | |
figures. In the first nine months of this year, Toyota sold about 7.5 | :08:14. | :08:18. | |
million cars, while Volkswagen sold just over 7.4 million. Now, experts | :08:19. | :08:23. | |
believe that Toyota will keep the top spot as the world's bestselling | :08:24. | :08:29. | |
car manufacturer. It lost its top position back in 2011 because of the | :08:30. | :08:36. | |
huge earthquake and tsunami. It regained it in 2012 and has | :08:37. | :08:39. | |
maintained its ends. It looks like Toyota will keep the spot for this | :08:40. | :08:44. | |
year. Thank you very much. Very interesting, in the case of Toyota | :08:45. | :08:48. | |
and VW. They have both actually said that part of the obsession to be the | :08:49. | :08:52. | |
number one in the world has meant they have perhaps seen some elements | :08:53. | :08:56. | |
falling behind. Talking about the big recall crisis at Toyota, you | :08:57. | :09:00. | |
will remember that well, not many years ago. Looking at markets across | :09:01. | :09:07. | |
Asia, Hong Kong is flat, that was the close on Friday in the United | :09:08. | :09:11. | |
States. These markets are still digesting the latest move on the | :09:12. | :09:14. | |
part of China, when it comes to cutting interest rates in China. | :09:15. | :09:21. | |
Europe has been going for about 40 minutes. Brand-new trading week. As | :09:22. | :09:25. | |
you can say, it's all going in the wrong direction. That is despite the | :09:26. | :09:29. | |
fact we had good news from Peugeot. It says it is much stronger in the | :09:30. | :09:34. | |
third quarter. WPP, we will talk about that later. Also, I spoke | :09:35. | :09:39. | |
about Phillips, I spoke to the boss, their sales are strongly as well. | :09:40. | :09:43. | |
And now Nada Tawfiq can tell us what will making the headlines | :09:44. | :09:46. | |
in the business world in the United States today. | :09:47. | :09:52. | |
Earnings season is still in full swing with a number of major | :09:53. | :09:58. | |
companies reporting, such as Apple, Twitter and Alibaba. Up first is | :09:59. | :10:03. | |
Xerox, which expects the first quarterly loss since 2010. An | :10:04. | :10:09. | |
increasingly digital marketplace has affected the company, widely known | :10:10. | :10:13. | |
for paper copiers and printers. It is now shifting its focus to its | :10:14. | :10:16. | |
government health care business. But that has not come without issues. | :10:17. | :10:21. | |
Interrupted projects in California and Montana will hurt the company | :10:22. | :10:25. | |
this quarter. Also on Monday, figures on new home sales are | :10:26. | :10:29. | |
released, which helps determine consumer confidence and translate | :10:30. | :10:32. | |
into economic momentum in other industries. On Tuesday, policymakers | :10:33. | :10:38. | |
will begin a two Dave meeting. No rate hike is expected, but, as ever, | :10:39. | :10:43. | |
anything can happen. -- two day meeting. | :10:44. | :10:43. | |
Joining us is Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist, Rabobank. | :10:44. | :10:48. | |
We have a big week ahead. We have the Fed rate decision on Wednesday, | :10:49. | :10:55. | |
the bank of Japan on Friday. Do you think we are likely to see a bit | :10:56. | :10:58. | |
more stimulus when it comes to Japan? Probably not. The market has | :10:59. | :11:02. | |
been suspecting for some time that they need to go. Japan has an | :11:03. | :11:07. | |
inflation target which is 2%. Inflation is nowhere near. A lot of | :11:08. | :11:10. | |
analysts have been saying they are going to have to go, but that is not | :11:11. | :11:14. | |
the noises we have been hearing from the bank of Japan. They have been a | :11:15. | :11:17. | |
lot more upbeat than many economists. That suggests that it | :11:18. | :11:24. | |
won't. Many economists say that we needed, so it will be an interesting | :11:25. | :11:29. | |
meeting. We have to talk about the Fed. We do indeed. That meeting is | :11:30. | :11:33. | |
exciting, not necessarily because the market expects a move, they | :11:34. | :11:37. | |
don't, but we want to see if there are clues. Is there the possibility | :11:38. | :11:40. | |
of an interest-rate hike in December? If we go back about a | :11:41. | :11:46. | |
year, the start of the year, the market thought the Fed would hike | :11:47. | :11:50. | |
interest rates in June. We are now nearly in November and many people | :11:51. | :11:53. | |
in the market, the majority of people in the market, think they | :11:54. | :11:56. | |
will not be able to go until next year. Ben Bonallack was being | :11:57. | :12:00. | |
interviewed over the weekend on an American news channel and was | :12:01. | :12:04. | |
talking about how difficult it is for Janet and her team to get the | :12:05. | :12:12. | |
timing right. Many people say it is a poisoned chalice, never an easy | :12:13. | :12:17. | |
thing to do. Some of the corporate results, the stories we are reading, | :12:18. | :12:20. | |
some culprits are having a tough time. If we do see more stimulus | :12:21. | :12:29. | |
from Japan, from the eurozone, it means the dollar will probably | :12:30. | :12:35. | |
strengthen. We will see you later. She is not off the hook yet. She has | :12:36. | :12:40. | |
to do more in five minutes. We will be hearing from one of the top ten | :12:41. | :12:43. | |
global accountancy firms. Our guest is the only woman at her position in | :12:44. | :12:45. | |
the industry. The world's biggest ad agency, | :12:46. | :12:46. | |
WPP published their trading A strong three months from its | :12:47. | :12:55. | |
North America business helped it But there was a warning that many | :12:56. | :13:00. | |
of their clients are still focusing on cutting costs rather than | :13:01. | :13:10. | |
growing their businesses. You've been speaking to the chief | :13:11. | :13:12. | |
executive Martin Sorrell - what does He has a great knack of talking for | :13:13. | :13:23. | |
a long time so you can't ask any more questions. Did you manage to | :13:24. | :13:28. | |
get some end? I was prepared and headed him off at the pats. I think | :13:29. | :13:32. | |
he knows I'm not going to put up with that. Normally, when he talks | :13:33. | :13:37. | |
about his results, he gives a very clear, unequivocal picture about | :13:38. | :13:40. | |
what is happening in the global economy. He will say Asia is doing | :13:41. | :13:44. | |
this, Europe is doing that, the Americans are doing this. The | :13:45. | :13:47. | |
picture he painted today was a much, much more nuanced one. You have been | :13:48. | :13:51. | |
talking about some other factors that play into that. One of them, of | :13:52. | :13:56. | |
course, is the transition that is happening in China, away from the | :13:57. | :13:59. | |
investment and manufacturing, towards consumer led economies, less | :14:00. | :14:03. | |
of a focus on exports. The effect that has is that we have seen the | :14:04. | :14:08. | |
falling commodities prices has been very sudden and very dramatic, | :14:09. | :14:11. | |
particularly over the past year. I said to him, surely if we turn more | :14:12. | :14:16. | |
Chinese people into big consumers, that is going to be helpful for | :14:17. | :14:20. | |
advertising. He said, that is true. But that is not something that | :14:21. | :14:24. | |
happens overnight. We have to wait a little bit for that. What you have | :14:25. | :14:27. | |
been talking about, he said this could be a blueprint for the | :14:28. | :14:31. | |
company. We will be looking at that closely. Another thing, because it | :14:32. | :14:36. | |
is very much an international company, movements in the foreign | :14:37. | :14:41. | |
exchange markets. That has been very prevalent because of what central | :14:42. | :14:44. | |
banks have been saying. You have been reporting about what China has | :14:45. | :14:47. | |
said about dropping interest rates. The sixth time this year. It is a | :14:48. | :14:55. | |
very rapid change that is going on. He has said the central bank is | :14:56. | :15:00. | |
going to keep its foot on the easing pedal. That affect the currency | :15:01. | :15:07. | |
markets. As you have rightly pointed out, the company is very focused on | :15:08. | :15:19. | |
cost cutting. There is some information about bingo centres up | :15:20. | :15:21. | |
for sale. Our top story - | :15:22. | :15:25. | |
Chinese leaders begin a four day meeting to set out an economic | :15:26. | :15:29. | |
blueprint for the next five years. After massive industrialisation, | :15:30. | :15:33. | |
the big question now is whether it will manage to ease | :15:34. | :15:36. | |
the transition for the country to And now let's get the inside track | :15:37. | :15:42. | |
from the only female boss of any of Jean Stephens is | :15:43. | :15:50. | |
Global Chief Executive of RSM International and an advocate | :15:51. | :15:56. | |
of diversity in the workplace. RSM is a multi-national network | :15:57. | :16:01. | |
of accounting firms which together form the 7th largest | :16:02. | :16:05. | |
professional accountancy services Members employ over 32,000 | :16:06. | :16:08. | |
people across the world. It includes some really big names - | :16:09. | :16:14. | |
including McGladrey in the US, Baker Tilly here in the UK | :16:15. | :16:19. | |
and Ruihua in China. Jean Stephens, | :16:20. | :16:23. | |
Global Chief Executive of Welcome to the programme. You were | :16:24. | :16:37. | |
in more than 100 countries across the world. That must be a nightmare. | :16:38. | :16:40. | |
You must spend a lot of time on planes. I sometimes live on a plane. | :16:41. | :16:46. | |
I spend about 75% of my time travelling. Meeting with members, | :16:47. | :16:53. | |
talking and sharing strategies. That was part of your ambition, wasn't | :16:54. | :16:58. | |
it? You wanted to work for a global company as opposed US company. Yes, | :16:59. | :17:05. | |
I trained as a CPA in the US, I graduated young and got my masters. | :17:06. | :17:11. | |
Explain that. Certified Public accountants. I am a chartered | :17:12. | :17:18. | |
accountant. I got my degree and then my license, I loved it, but I'll was | :17:19. | :17:22. | |
had a dream of living abroad, living and working abroad and being in a | :17:23. | :17:28. | |
different culture. Having the opportunity to come to the | :17:29. | :17:34. | |
headquarters in London with the then CEO, working with him for ten years, | :17:35. | :17:41. | |
and then we grew and developed and I was fortunate that they asked me to | :17:42. | :17:46. | |
take over when he stepped down. You've grown up throughout the | :17:47. | :17:49. | |
company, you've been there a long time. I wonder what the biggest | :17:50. | :17:55. | |
challenges for you must be, trying to manage a consistency across the | :17:56. | :17:59. | |
entire network when it comes to all the different cultures and people | :18:00. | :18:03. | |
you've got to work with, because there are lots of ways of doing | :18:04. | :18:10. | |
business. That is right, and it is what has kept me in this position | :18:11. | :18:15. | |
for so long. The issues that we have around the world are so varied, I | :18:16. | :18:19. | |
start my day with Asia and follow the time zones with regards to | :18:20. | :18:29. | |
talking to our members. I love that. We are very focused on client | :18:30. | :18:33. | |
service, adding value to our clients, working with them, with | :18:34. | :18:39. | |
their growth ambitions. As part of that, there are two things that I | :18:40. | :18:43. | |
really focus on, one is the quality structures we have within our | :18:44. | :18:46. | |
organisation, doing our very best to make sure that is the highest level, | :18:47. | :18:51. | |
and the other is the relationships we have with each other. If we can | :18:52. | :18:56. | |
connect very easily and seamlessly then that brings value to our | :18:57. | :19:01. | |
clients. We want to provide the services based on those | :19:02. | :19:07. | |
relationships. Something that is important to you is diversity, and a | :19:08. | :19:12. | |
big part of that is enabling women to claim the ladders. You are | :19:13. | :19:22. | |
actually in favour of quarters. -- quotas. How did you get to where you | :19:23. | :19:26. | |
are given many women say it is difficult to get to the top? Most | :19:27. | :19:32. | |
professions, we are still not at the level that I think we need to, to | :19:33. | :19:39. | |
have a well rounded workforce. I believe when you have diversity at | :19:40. | :19:43. | |
the table, not just gender but all diversity, it makes for better | :19:44. | :19:48. | |
business, and better decisions. Everybody agrees with that but it is | :19:49. | :19:54. | |
how you make that happen. It is multilayered, it is very | :19:55. | :19:58. | |
complicated, that I think one is having the conversations, the | :19:59. | :20:01. | |
current leaders need to set the stage for making that happen. I am | :20:02. | :20:07. | |
very fortunate to work within RSM, in a predominantly male profession. | :20:08. | :20:15. | |
I don't have my own children, so I'm able to devote a lot more time than | :20:16. | :20:22. | |
others could. That is just a reality of the world we are in. In business, | :20:23. | :20:28. | |
we need to make adjustments for the different needs our people have so | :20:29. | :20:36. | |
we can get that diversity. With regards quotas, we've been talking | :20:37. | :20:40. | |
about this for so long. I graduated a long time ago and we were talking | :20:41. | :20:44. | |
about it then, we are still talking about it. Everybody agrees we've not | :20:45. | :20:49. | |
made enough progress. The pace of change is not fast enough. Quotas | :20:50. | :20:56. | |
can help. They can mandate and drive change to the point where we don't | :20:57. | :20:59. | |
need them. Interesting that you say you don't have children. In the | :21:00. | :21:04. | |
Green room you said there is a recruitment that is 50-50 but you | :21:05. | :21:10. | |
said you see the fallout after eight or ten years. How do you manage to | :21:11. | :21:15. | |
get women to boardroom level and still be able to have a family? I | :21:16. | :21:21. | |
think it starts with women having a discussion with the employer, saying | :21:22. | :21:30. | |
this is what they need, and being flexible with regards the hours, | :21:31. | :21:38. | |
making it easy for women to have that, and families. It is not just | :21:39. | :21:44. | |
women, it is a family issue. When you talk in Scandinavian countries, | :21:45. | :21:51. | |
it is much more socially acceptable for them to take time off. We've got | :21:52. | :21:58. | |
to challenge all those things and having the discussion is very | :21:59. | :22:14. | |
important. It would be good to get to the point. Thank you for this. | :22:15. | :22:29. | |
There are lots of ways to keep up with BBC business. We would love to | :22:30. | :22:32. | |
hear from you, here's a reminder of how to get in touch. You can stay | :22:33. | :22:40. | |
ahead with all the day's breaking business news. We will keep you | :22:41. | :22:43. | |
up-to-date with insight and analysis from the team of editors around the | :22:44. | :22:48. | |
world. We want to hear from you, get involved on the web page. You can | :22:49. | :23:01. | |
get involved on Twitter. It is on TV and online. Jane is back and with us | :23:02. | :23:12. | |
in the studio to talk about the other stories out there. There is a | :23:13. | :23:23. | |
story in the Financial Times. This relates to sanctions. There have | :23:24. | :23:28. | |
been sanctions placed on Russian businesses. Banks have the job of | :23:29. | :23:35. | |
facilitating business. I work for a bank, we have all had compliance | :23:36. | :23:45. | |
training. We have had training with businesses that are sanctioned. This | :23:46. | :23:51. | |
investigation, reported in the FT, says the US authorities are | :23:52. | :23:55. | |
investigating some business that Deutsche Bank has been doing in | :23:56. | :24:00. | |
Russia. It is only an investigation at this stage, but they are saying | :24:01. | :24:11. | |
they are potentially investigating a breach of those sanctions. One of | :24:12. | :24:16. | |
the stories we were alluding to is what is going on with earnings at | :24:17. | :24:21. | |
the moment and the slowdown. The Wall Street Journal is looking at | :24:22. | :24:25. | |
this, companies warning they will see a dip in profits and sales. This | :24:26. | :24:32. | |
is fascinating. All year we've been debating whether it is doing well | :24:33. | :24:41. | |
enough for them to hike interest rates. This story suggests US | :24:42. | :24:47. | |
corporate, manufacturers are stressing out. One manufacturer says | :24:48. | :24:51. | |
the sector is in recession. We know that energy companies are under | :24:52. | :24:56. | |
pressure because of oil prices but this goes further in suggesting | :24:57. | :25:01. | |
other corporate companies are under stress as well. I would say that we | :25:02. | :25:05. | |
can take this back to the first quarter. A number of corporate work | :25:06. | :25:10. | |
complaining about the strength of the US dollar, the strongest | :25:11. | :25:16. | |
currency over the last 12 months, it has affected the profits of many | :25:17. | :25:27. | |
companies overseas. A story which caught our attention, the originator | :25:28. | :25:37. | |
of Green Black saying he regretted selling it to Cadbury. He says we | :25:38. | :25:45. | |
value corporate for how much they are valued for, not the number of | :25:46. | :25:50. | |
people we employ. Short-term as is the failure of capitalism. That is | :25:51. | :25:56. | |
such a deep ending. See you soon. | :25:57. | :26:00. |