26/10/2015 BBC Business Live


26/10/2015

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This is Business Live from BBC News with Sally Bundock and

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All eyes on China, where leaders are gathered for their four day meeting

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to discuss the nation's economic and social plans for the next five

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years - but what tricks does China have left up its sleeve?

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Live from London, that's our top story on Monday 26th October

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A cut in interest rates at the end of last week has given

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markets across Asia a boost but how optimistic can we be about

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the Communist Party's ideas for the world's second biggest economy?

:00:45.:00:48.

Also in the programme - Toyota is back at the top.

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The Japanese carmaker is the best vehicle seller

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of the year so far - it's overtaken Volkswagen as it grapples with the

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And a new trading week has just kicked off across Europe - markets

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are mixed as investors grapple with the latest earnings news from some

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And we'll be getting the inside track from the only female

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chief executive at one of the top ten global accountancy firms.

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Keep in touch with us on social media -

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Today we want to know what would be in your five year plan

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How can China kick-start its economy?

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China dominates the headlines this week.

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China's leaders are to gather for a four day event in Beijing

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today for its fifth plenum - whatever is decided there will set

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the agenda for China's policies in the coming five years.

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Top of the agenda, unsurprisingly it's expected to be the economy.

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The government's new annual growth target could be top of the agenda -

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with a cut of growth target from 7% to 6.5%, but some are speculating it

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The party will also shift the focus away from a dependence

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on exports and extensive investment in infrastructure to concentrate

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There could also be an increase in social welfare spending

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and push for further financial liberalisation, including promoting

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the internationalisation of China's currency, the renminbi.

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Dr Linda Yueh is a Professor at London Business School joins me

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Good to see you. China very much charted a course in 2003 when it

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started doing these plans, from a farming nation into one of mass

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industrialisation. Now the process has finished, where do they see the

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engine for growth in the future? They certainly see it in a new

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sector, services. Something that would be familiar to advanced

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economies, but for something like China it is a massive structural

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change, from being a manufacturing power to having its economy already

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predominantly driven by professional services, educational services,

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restaurants. That transformation is not the only one they have to

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contend with in this 35 year plan. They also have to work out how you

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drive growth, when we move away from factories producing things that can

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be sold by exports. They have to come up with more innovative ways to

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sell exports, including in the services sector. Over the last five

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years, they averaged about 7.8% growth. Do you think they will stick

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with that will do away with that target? I think the growth target is

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likely to be lowered. The 25 year plan, from 2011 until 2015, that

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have an average growth rate of about 7.5%. They have pretty much exceeded

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that. Looking forward, there is not a great deal of confidence. They

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want to sustain that kind of growth rate, but I don't think they could.

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It is more realistic to grow at 6.5%, or even lower than that. There

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is no question, that growth rate will be the single target that

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everybody will be watching for. I have looked at the five-year plans,

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and there is going to be at least 30 to 40 qualitative, as well as

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quantitative plans. The other one to watch for is what they do in terms

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of the share of the economy coming from investment, compared to

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consumption. Briefly, credit growth is vastly outstripping economic

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growth. Do you think China will come up with a plan in time for its debt

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mountain? They tend to say things like they want financial stability.

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Yes, that is one of the reasons why they don't want to grow through

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investment any more. A couple more targets to watch for, they usually

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have a money growth target. That gives you a sense of how much credit

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they want to unleash on the economy. Beyond that, I would keep an eye out

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for overall rebalancing targets. They were pretty good in the last

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one, but I think the next one is going to be a lot harder, especially

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in terms of exports. We are going to leave it there, lovely to see you.

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Time for a quick look at some other news:

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It's not quite signed, sealed or delivered, but the

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long-awaited sale of Japan Post and its subsidiaries is getting closer.

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Shares in the main holding company for the

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state-owned giant have been priced in the top of the expected range.

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That raises 693 billion yen - that's about $5.7 billion.

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Investors from Japan will be able to buy 80% of the shares,

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with the other 20 available to international investors.

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And bankers at Royal Bank of Scotland will soon be using Facebook

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to communicate with colleagues, swap information and, even,

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It's the first bank to adopt Facebook At Work and aims to

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connect people across the company more quickly and efficiently to

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'S been a busy day. Lots of companies out with earnings, we

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can't imagine everything in the show, so please look at the website,

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because they talk about stories as they break. This is about Phillips.

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better-than-expected quarterly better-than-expected quarterly

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profits, off the back of strong orders for US health care

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businesses. We this earlier. They think it is all

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about chronic they think they are going to be

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doing well. I spoke to the chief executive earlier and he was talking

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about the fact that one of businesses they are trying to sell

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off, they have hit a regulatory hurdle in the US. That was one of

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morning. Other stories, we can't imagine them more, more about RBS

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and Facebook, quite an interesting new manoeuvre on the part of RBS. I

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can't see us using Facebook at work. We would never do that, would we?

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Never, Now, as Volkswagen deals with

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the diesel emissions rigging scandal, Toyota is pulling ahead

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in terms of global vehicle sales. Mariko Oi is in Singapore - Toyota

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is taking full advantage of trouble Indeed, if you remember, in the

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first six months of this year, Volkswagen overtaxed Toyota in sales

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numbers for the first time, which was very exciting for the German car

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manufacturer. As you say, as we have been reporting, VW now has this huge

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scandal which affects its reputation, as well as sales

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figures. In the first nine months of this year, Toyota sold about 7.5

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million cars, while Volkswagen sold just over 7.4 million. Now, experts

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believe that Toyota will keep the top spot as the world's bestselling

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car manufacturer. It lost its top position back in 2011 because of the

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huge earthquake and tsunami. It regained it in 2012 and has

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maintained its ends. It looks like Toyota will keep the spot for this

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year. Thank you very much. Very interesting, in the case of Toyota

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and VW. They have both actually said that part of the obsession to be the

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number one in the world has meant they have perhaps seen some elements

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falling behind. Talking about the big recall crisis at Toyota, you

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will remember that well, not many years ago. Looking at markets across

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Asia, Hong Kong is flat, that was the close on Friday in the United

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States. These markets are still digesting the latest move on the

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part of China, when it comes to cutting interest rates in China.

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Europe has been going for about 40 minutes. Brand-new trading week. As

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you can say, it's all going in the wrong direction. That is despite the

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fact we had good news from Peugeot. It says it is much stronger in the

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third quarter. WPP, we will talk about that later. Also, I spoke

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about Phillips, I spoke to the boss, their sales are strongly as well.

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And now Nada Tawfiq can tell us what will making the headlines

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in the business world in the United States today.

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Earnings season is still in full swing with a number of major

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companies reporting, such as Apple, Twitter and Alibaba. Up first is

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Xerox, which expects the first quarterly loss since 2010. An

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increasingly digital marketplace has affected the company, widely known

:10:10.:10:13.

for paper copiers and printers. It is now shifting its focus to its

:10:14.:10:16.

government health care business. But that has not come without issues.

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Interrupted projects in California and Montana will hurt the company

:10:22.:10:25.

this quarter. Also on Monday, figures on new home sales are

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released, which helps determine consumer confidence and translate

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into economic momentum in other industries. On Tuesday, policymakers

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will begin a two Dave meeting. No rate hike is expected, but, as ever,

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anything can happen. -- two day meeting.

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Joining us is Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist, Rabobank.

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We have a big week ahead. We have the Fed rate decision on Wednesday,

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the bank of Japan on Friday. Do you think we are likely to see a bit

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more stimulus when it comes to Japan? Probably not. The market has

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been suspecting for some time that they need to go. Japan has an

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inflation target which is 2%. Inflation is nowhere near. A lot of

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analysts have been saying they are going to have to go, but that is not

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the noises we have been hearing from the bank of Japan. They have been a

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lot more upbeat than many economists. That suggests that it

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won't. Many economists say that we needed, so it will be an interesting

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meeting. We have to talk about the Fed. We do indeed. That meeting is

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exciting, not necessarily because the market expects a move, they

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don't, but we want to see if there are clues. Is there the possibility

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of an interest-rate hike in December? If we go back about a

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year, the start of the year, the market thought the Fed would hike

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interest rates in June. We are now nearly in November and many people

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in the market, the majority of people in the market, think they

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will not be able to go until next year. Ben Bonallack was being

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interviewed over the weekend on an American news channel and was

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talking about how difficult it is for Janet and her team to get the

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timing right. Many people say it is a poisoned chalice, never an easy

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thing to do. Some of the corporate results, the stories we are reading,

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some culprits are having a tough time. If we do see more stimulus

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from Japan, from the eurozone, it means the dollar will probably

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strengthen. We will see you later. She is not off the hook yet. She has

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to do more in five minutes. We will be hearing from one of the top ten

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global accountancy firms. Our guest is the only woman at her position in

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the industry. The world's biggest ad agency,

:12:46.:12:46.

WPP published their trading A strong three months from its

:12:47.:12:55.

North America business helped it But there was a warning that many

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of their clients are still focusing on cutting costs rather than

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growing their businesses. You've been speaking to the chief

:13:11.:13:12.

executive Martin Sorrell - what does He has a great knack of talking for

:13:13.:13:23.

a long time so you can't ask any more questions. Did you manage to

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get some end? I was prepared and headed him off at the pats. I think

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he knows I'm not going to put up with that. Normally, when he talks

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about his results, he gives a very clear, unequivocal picture about

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what is happening in the global economy. He will say Asia is doing

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this, Europe is doing that, the Americans are doing this. The

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picture he painted today was a much, much more nuanced one. You have been

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talking about some other factors that play into that. One of them, of

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course, is the transition that is happening in China, away from the

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investment and manufacturing, towards consumer led economies, less

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of a focus on exports. The effect that has is that we have seen the

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falling commodities prices has been very sudden and very dramatic,

:14:09.:14:11.

particularly over the past year. I said to him, surely if we turn more

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Chinese people into big consumers, that is going to be helpful for

:14:17.:14:20.

advertising. He said, that is true. But that is not something that

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happens overnight. We have to wait a little bit for that. What you have

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been talking about, he said this could be a blueprint for the

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company. We will be looking at that closely. Another thing, because it

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is very much an international company, movements in the foreign

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exchange markets. That has been very prevalent because of what central

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banks have been saying. You have been reporting about what China has

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said about dropping interest rates. The sixth time this year. It is a

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very rapid change that is going on. He has said the central bank is

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going to keep its foot on the easing pedal. That affect the currency

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markets. As you have rightly pointed out, the company is very focused on

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cost cutting. There is some information about bingo centres up

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for sale. Our top story -

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Chinese leaders begin a four day meeting to set out an economic

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blueprint for the next five years. After massive industrialisation,

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the big question now is whether it will manage to ease

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the transition for the country to And now let's get the inside track

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from the only female boss of any of Jean Stephens is

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Global Chief Executive of RSM International and an advocate

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of diversity in the workplace. RSM is a multi-national network

:15:57.:16:01.

of accounting firms which together form the 7th largest

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professional accountancy services Members employ over 32,000

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people across the world. It includes some really big names -

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including McGladrey in the US, Baker Tilly here in the UK

:16:15.:16:19.

and Ruihua in China. Jean Stephens,

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Global Chief Executive of Welcome to the programme. You were

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in more than 100 countries across the world. That must be a nightmare.

:16:38.:16:40.

You must spend a lot of time on planes. I sometimes live on a plane.

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I spend about 75% of my time travelling. Meeting with members,

:16:47.:16:53.

talking and sharing strategies. That was part of your ambition, wasn't

:16:54.:16:58.

it? You wanted to work for a global company as opposed US company. Yes,

:16:59.:17:05.

I trained as a CPA in the US, I graduated young and got my masters.

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Explain that. Certified Public accountants. I am a chartered

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accountant. I got my degree and then my license, I loved it, but I'll was

:17:19.:17:22.

had a dream of living abroad, living and working abroad and being in a

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different culture. Having the opportunity to come to the

:17:29.:17:34.

headquarters in London with the then CEO, working with him for ten years,

:17:35.:17:41.

and then we grew and developed and I was fortunate that they asked me to

:17:42.:17:46.

take over when he stepped down. You've grown up throughout the

:17:47.:17:49.

company, you've been there a long time. I wonder what the biggest

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challenges for you must be, trying to manage a consistency across the

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entire network when it comes to all the different cultures and people

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you've got to work with, because there are lots of ways of doing

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business. That is right, and it is what has kept me in this position

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for so long. The issues that we have around the world are so varied, I

:18:16.:18:19.

start my day with Asia and follow the time zones with regards to

:18:20.:18:29.

talking to our members. I love that. We are very focused on client

:18:30.:18:33.

service, adding value to our clients, working with them, with

:18:34.:18:39.

their growth ambitions. As part of that, there are two things that I

:18:40.:18:43.

really focus on, one is the quality structures we have within our

:18:44.:18:46.

organisation, doing our very best to make sure that is the highest level,

:18:47.:18:51.

and the other is the relationships we have with each other. If we can

:18:52.:18:56.

connect very easily and seamlessly then that brings value to our

:18:57.:19:01.

clients. We want to provide the services based on those

:19:02.:19:07.

relationships. Something that is important to you is diversity, and a

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big part of that is enabling women to claim the ladders. You are

:19:13.:19:22.

actually in favour of quarters. -- quotas. How did you get to where you

:19:23.:19:26.

are given many women say it is difficult to get to the top? Most

:19:27.:19:32.

professions, we are still not at the level that I think we need to, to

:19:33.:19:39.

have a well rounded workforce. I believe when you have diversity at

:19:40.:19:43.

the table, not just gender but all diversity, it makes for better

:19:44.:19:48.

business, and better decisions. Everybody agrees with that but it is

:19:49.:19:54.

how you make that happen. It is multilayered, it is very

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complicated, that I think one is having the conversations, the

:19:59.:20:01.

current leaders need to set the stage for making that happen. I am

:20:02.:20:07.

very fortunate to work within RSM, in a predominantly male profession.

:20:08.:20:15.

I don't have my own children, so I'm able to devote a lot more time than

:20:16.:20:22.

others could. That is just a reality of the world we are in. In business,

:20:23.:20:28.

we need to make adjustments for the different needs our people have so

:20:29.:20:36.

we can get that diversity. With regards quotas, we've been talking

:20:37.:20:40.

about this for so long. I graduated a long time ago and we were talking

:20:41.:20:44.

about it then, we are still talking about it. Everybody agrees we've not

:20:45.:20:49.

made enough progress. The pace of change is not fast enough. Quotas

:20:50.:20:56.

can help. They can mandate and drive change to the point where we don't

:20:57.:20:59.

need them. Interesting that you say you don't have children. In the

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Green room you said there is a recruitment that is 50-50 but you

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said you see the fallout after eight or ten years. How do you manage to

:21:11.:21:15.

get women to boardroom level and still be able to have a family? I

:21:16.:21:21.

think it starts with women having a discussion with the employer, saying

:21:22.:21:30.

this is what they need, and being flexible with regards the hours,

:21:31.:21:38.

making it easy for women to have that, and families. It is not just

:21:39.:21:44.

women, it is a family issue. When you talk in Scandinavian countries,

:21:45.:21:51.

it is much more socially acceptable for them to take time off. We've got

:21:52.:21:58.

to challenge all those things and having the discussion is very

:21:59.:22:14.

important. It would be good to get to the point. Thank you for this.

:22:15.:22:29.

There are lots of ways to keep up with BBC business. We would love to

:22:30.:22:32.

hear from you, here's a reminder of how to get in touch. You can stay

:22:33.:22:40.

ahead with all the day's breaking business news. We will keep you

:22:41.:22:43.

up-to-date with insight and analysis from the team of editors around the

:22:44.:22:48.

world. We want to hear from you, get involved on the web page. You can

:22:49.:23:01.

get involved on Twitter. It is on TV and online. Jane is back and with us

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in the studio to talk about the other stories out there. There is a

:23:13.:23:23.

story in the Financial Times. This relates to sanctions. There have

:23:24.:23:28.

been sanctions placed on Russian businesses. Banks have the job of

:23:29.:23:35.

facilitating business. I work for a bank, we have all had compliance

:23:36.:23:45.

training. We have had training with businesses that are sanctioned. This

:23:46.:23:51.

investigation, reported in the FT, says the US authorities are

:23:52.:23:55.

investigating some business that Deutsche Bank has been doing in

:23:56.:24:00.

Russia. It is only an investigation at this stage, but they are saying

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they are potentially investigating a breach of those sanctions. One of

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the stories we were alluding to is what is going on with earnings at

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the moment and the slowdown. The Wall Street Journal is looking at

:24:22.:24:25.

this, companies warning they will see a dip in profits and sales. This

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is fascinating. All year we've been debating whether it is doing well

:24:33.:24:41.

enough for them to hike interest rates. This story suggests US

:24:42.:24:47.

corporate, manufacturers are stressing out. One manufacturer says

:24:48.:24:51.

the sector is in recession. We know that energy companies are under

:24:52.:24:56.

pressure because of oil prices but this goes further in suggesting

:24:57.:25:01.

other corporate companies are under stress as well. I would say that we

:25:02.:25:05.

can take this back to the first quarter. A number of corporate work

:25:06.:25:10.

complaining about the strength of the US dollar, the strongest

:25:11.:25:16.

currency over the last 12 months, it has affected the profits of many

:25:17.:25:27.

companies overseas. A story which caught our attention, the originator

:25:28.:25:37.

of Green Black saying he regretted selling it to Cadbury. He says we

:25:38.:25:45.

value corporate for how much they are valued for, not the number of

:25:46.:25:50.

people we employ. Short-term as is the failure of capitalism. That is

:25:51.:25:56.

such a deep ending. See you soon.

:25:57.:26:00.

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