19/01/2016 BBC Business Live


19/01/2016

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This is Business Live from BBC News, with Ben Thompson and Sally Bundock.

:00:00.:00:07.

China's economy grows at its slowest pace in a quarter of a century -

:00:08.:00:11.

but its within the government's target.

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Live from London, that's our top story on Tuesday the 19th

:00:15.:00:16.

The world's second biggest economy grew by just under 7% last year -

:00:17.:00:43.

but some observers say growth could be much weaker

:00:44.:00:45.

Spies like us. Apparently Britain's Security service, the MI5, is the

:00:46.:00:58.

best place to work for gay and lesbian workers. The markets in

:00:59.:01:02.

Europe has begun its trading day. Much stronger than what we have seen

:01:03.:01:06.

in previous sessions and we will explain why.

:01:07.:01:08.

And assessing the health and wealth of private businesses.

:01:09.:01:10.

How do you do due diligence on firms - like these -

:01:11.:01:13.

that aren't listed on any stock market?

:01:14.:01:15.

Well, one website says it can give you the low down

:01:16.:01:18.

We'll be speaking to the founder later in the programme.

:01:19.:01:24.

And as tourism to North Africa slumps in the wake of

:01:25.:01:27.

we want to know - have you changed your travel

:01:28.:01:31.

Are there places you would no longer visit?

:01:32.:01:34.

China's released its official figures for 2015, showing

:01:35.:01:51.

the world's second largest economy has had its slowest full-year growth

:01:52.:01:54.

The economy grew 6.9% - in line with the government's target

:01:55.:02:00.

Taking a look over the past five years, you can see the steep drop

:02:01.:02:11.

in growth, from double-digit figures just a few years ago,

:02:12.:02:17.

as the country's manufacturing sector shrank and is now

:02:18.:02:19.

in the process of moving towards a consumer driven economy.

:02:20.:02:26.

And to make matters worse - some are concerned the figure may

:02:27.:02:29.

Fears over the slowdown have fuelled market volatility in China over

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recent weeks, spilling over into global markets.

:02:36.:02:42.

Miranda Carr, Senior Analyst, Haitong Securities joins us

:02:43.:02:44.

Good morning. Sally ran through the numbers there, and as we touched on,

:02:45.:02:55.

it is about refocusing and rebalance of the economy away from just

:02:56.:03:00.

exports. At the same time, it also means headlines like today, the

:03:01.:03:03.

slowest growth in 25 years, how worried should we be? We should not

:03:04.:03:11.

be that worried, we have good rebalancing services, 50% of the

:03:12.:03:14.

economy for the first time in history. People have called for

:03:15.:03:19.

this, China should not invest in bridges to know where or fuel a

:03:20.:03:22.

property bubble but when it stops doing that, and gets back to

:03:23.:03:25.

consumption growth, you get panicked headlines. The trust issue when it

:03:26.:03:32.

comes to these numbers is the big one. We are getting concerned about

:03:33.:03:35.

numbers to an extent, that might not be true anyway. Some suggest the

:03:36.:03:39.

figure could be much lower in reality? If you look at the details,

:03:40.:03:44.

things like the old economy is slowing significantly, things like

:03:45.:03:48.

electricity consumption, railway freight, even mining investment,

:03:49.:03:52.

things and steel mills, that is going into contraction which is

:03:53.:03:56.

quite painful for that bit of the economy. That is what we feel

:03:57.:04:01.

affected by because it is where we have had the most exposure,

:04:02.:04:05.

international companies, industrial companies, that is where the most

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pain is and why we think my God, it is slowing much more than we think.

:04:11.:04:15.

At the same time, the service sector shows good grades? The bit that they

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are trying to encourage? Yes, -- growth. If you have seen more

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closures, you would expect the consumption side to fall as well but

:04:30.:04:34.

it was doing pretty well. Auto sales, daily household goods, they

:04:35.:04:39.

are reasonably good. Some of this rebalancing is happening but it is

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not an easy process, it is quite a painful adjustment and we think 2016

:04:44.:04:48.

is going to be where a lot of that real crunch is going to happen. Yes,

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close scrutiny of the economy. Thank you.

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A lot of detail and further analysis on the website.

:04:59.:05:04.

In other news today... Attacks by the militant group

:05:05.:05:06.

IS have led to a fall in tourism in parts of North Africa,

:05:07.:05:09.

where millions rely on the trade New figures from the United Nations

:05:10.:05:12.

World Tourism Organisation indicate visits to North Africa fell by 8%

:05:13.:05:15.

in 2015, bucking The consumer goods giant Unilever

:05:16.:05:18.

has reported a sharp fall in full year profit for 2015 -

:05:19.:05:22.

saying it was a challenging year. The firm, which makes a vast array

:05:23.:05:24.

of products including Ben Jerry's ice-cream and Lipton tea says

:05:25.:05:29.

pre-tax profit fell 8% It expects even tougher market

:05:30.:05:35.

conditions in 2016. Tata Steel and trade unions have

:05:36.:05:38.

called for more British government support for the industry,

:05:39.:05:41.

after the company announced More than 1,000 posts are to go,

:05:42.:05:43.

mainly in Port Talbot But at the same time,

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BT has announced it will create 1,000 UK jobs as part

:05:47.:05:55.

of a commitment to answer more of its customer calls

:05:56.:05:58.

from within the UK. Currently only half of those calls

:05:59.:06:00.

are answered in the UK, with the rest answered by call

:06:01.:06:02.

centre teams based in Bangalore A look at the business live page for

:06:03.:06:21.

you. Details related to events in China. News that the FTSE 100 in

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London has opened significantly higher, relief after a difficult few

:06:26.:06:27.

days. Breaking news now, news from the

:06:28.:06:32.

live team suggesting there could be problems with Twitter this morning.

:06:33.:06:37.

They ask this... Let us know if you are having

:06:38.:06:43.

similar problems. The world's nudging bank, nudge

:06:44.:06:48.

theory. I like this idea. We've discussed this on the programme, the

:06:49.:06:54.

father of nudge theory, rather than rules and regulations telling you

:06:55.:06:57.

what you should and shouldn't be doing, nudge theory is about

:06:58.:07:00.

coercing you into doing it by telling

:07:01.:07:05.

you things are better. So rather than cutting spending, you may be

:07:06.:07:12.

aware of spending too much on a certain day.

:07:13.:07:18.

It's Friday for a lot of people, the Friday feeling overtakes them and

:07:19.:07:22.

they spend money online! Or in the streets. I'm pretty well-behaved!

:07:23.:07:24.

Let's take a look round the world at what's business stories

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Sarah Toms is in Singapore with more of the market reaction after those

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That is right, it is the news investors have been waiting for

:07:32.:07:43.

cross Asia. We want to know what the GDP figures were. 6.9%. It comes in

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line with expectations. For the markets across Asia, that has been

:07:50.:07:53.

good news. Investors have been worried about a slowdown, and abrupt

:07:54.:07:57.

slowdown, and these figures are showing China is slowing but it's

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going the way that economists had predicted. Now, this means the

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market's were not only relieved but cheering after today's figures. We

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turned to the Hong Kong index and that ended up at 2%. The Shanghai

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index is up 3.2%. Australia shares were up as well, even though

:08:26.:08:30.

investors were trading more cautiously, and, of course, in

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Japan, the nick a turned around earlier losses today to finish up.

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That is the same story in South Korea. -- Nikkei.

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That's all the action in Asia. That's not last night on Wall

:08:46.:08:56.

Street, that was Martin Luther King holiday. The states reopens today.

:08:57.:09:04.

Looking to what is happening in Europe, the positive sentiment

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flowing through to the trading day in Europe, gains across the board.

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Significant as well. Let's not forget that this is really following

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through from what is nearly three weeks of torrid and negative

:09:19.:09:20.

sessions for markets across the world. A 2% jump today for the FTSE

:09:21.:09:26.

100 is not much in light of losses we seen in markets across Europe in

:09:27.:09:31.

the last few weeks. In terms of winners and losers, we will discuss

:09:32.:09:32.

that in a moment. And now Nada Tawfik can tell us

:09:33.:09:37.

what will making the headlines in the business world

:09:38.:09:40.

in the United States today. After turbulence last week,

:09:41.:09:44.

investors may be hoping for a quiet time on Tuesday but they are

:09:45.:09:47.

unlikely to get it. Beyond the general fear that falls last week

:09:48.:09:51.

may have driven American stocks towards a fair market, there is a

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lot of news to be released. The banking sector remains in the

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spotlight, Morgan Stanley and the Bank of America Stadium four-year

:09:59.:10:02.

earnings. Morgan Stanley may be revealing falling profits caused by

:10:03.:10:07.

trading revenue, but the Bank of America should show a rise thanks to

:10:08.:10:13.

cost cutting. A slew of other big names from corporate America getting

:10:14.:10:17.

ready to report as well, from IBM to Netflix, and America's biggest

:10:18.:10:24.

health insurer, American Health, and its biggest airline, Delta.

:10:25.:10:33.

Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist, Rabobank joins me now.

:10:34.:10:39.

Sally touched on whether it was a bounce back. The data from China was

:10:40.:10:48.

not as bad as it could've been, there was some relief, but the

:10:49.:10:52.

markets are still very vulnerable. Looking not only add data from China

:10:53.:10:56.

but from the US, there has been bad data there, the markets are nervous

:10:57.:11:01.

about that, and in Europe, we see some more great but it is still very

:11:02.:11:05.

low. There is a concern in the markets, what do the central banks

:11:06.:11:09.

do? When it comes to where the money is going, it is traditional safe

:11:10.:11:14.

havens? We've seen that this year. Currency markets at the end. The

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dollar has done OK. The euro, the current account surplus in Europe, a

:11:20.:11:22.

big surplus of savers, money comes in for the Europe. Investors are

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keeping their cards close to their chest and not really wanting to

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disclose risky assets. In the UK, what does it mean about where we are

:11:34.:11:41.

in terms of recovery? More data at 9:30am. We have more warnings about

:11:42.:11:45.

things not being as great, true for Europe but here in UK it is

:11:46.:11:50.

particularly true? Here, it is big news, we are likely get very low

:11:51.:11:57.

inflation. Core inflation, when you take out or oil and food prices, it

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is supposed to be a better reflection of demand. It is still

:12:01.:12:06.

very moderate despite the easing monetary policy conditions for years

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now. The Bank of England need not be in any rush at all to hike interest

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rates. There is a point we will be talking more about. For now, thanks.

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Still to come, assessing the health and wealth of private firms.

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We'll meet the man behind the website that promises to give

:12:24.:12:25.

the inside track on how well a private company is performing,

:12:26.:12:28.

You're with Business Live from BBC News.

:12:29.:12:38.

Figures out overnight confirm that growth in the world's second biggest

:12:39.:12:41.

economy, China, is at its slowest rate for 25 years.

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Quite significantly if you think about the last 25 years. What does

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it mean for us here in the UK? Steph is at London Gateway,

:12:53.:12:55.

the UK's third busiest port, which recently took delivery

:12:56.:12:57.

of the UK's biggest ever It looks pretty calm there this

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morning but it tells the story of global trade, doesn't it? It really

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does. You can see here a beautiful setting this morning, it's peaceful

:13:18.:13:23.

out there but busy here. This container ship has just come in and

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you can see all of those containers on it being taken off, they will be

:13:27.:13:33.

moved to this area, there is a robotic system that works out which

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containers have to go on which Laurie. This really does tell a

:13:37.:13:43.

story of international trade. We are a country that imports a lot of

:13:44.:13:48.

products here -- lorry. We export a lot as well. China is an important

:13:49.:13:52.

trading partner for a business like this. As you mention, this company,

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this port, took their biggest ever shipment coming in from China on New

:13:58.:14:02.

Year's Day. It is important for them. When things slowdown in China,

:14:03.:14:06.

as we heard overnight that figure you mentioned about the slowdown,

:14:07.:14:10.

the slowest paced growth for the last 25 years, for a business like

:14:11.:14:15.

this one, it is a concern, does mean they went get as much business here?

:14:16.:14:20.

The slowdown is very much about things cooling in China, surrounding

:14:21.:14:24.

export and import, they are not trading as much with other countries

:14:25.:14:31.

and, because of that, they have seen debt spiral, they have taken on a

:14:32.:14:35.

lot of debt in the last decade, we've seen massive growth. We have

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to remember we are talking about growth in China at 6.9% last year,

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it is still a great figure when you think of how much we grow in the UK

:14:44.:14:47.

at the moment. It is nowhere near that. There is concern though

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because it is not like what it was in China, it was growing a lot

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faster. It has slowed now. This tells a story though of

:14:56.:14:56.

international trade here. Thank you. It is a story where the containers

:14:57.:15:09.

would come in full of goods from China and not necessarily go out

:15:10.:15:10.

that way either. Our top story, China's economy grows

:15:11.:15:14.

at its slowest pace for 25 years in 2015, marking a rollercoaster

:15:15.:15:21.

year but is within If you are on Twitter and you are

:15:22.:15:34.

having trouble, apparently the website is down. We can show what

:15:35.:15:37.

they're telling us at the moment. That's what you're going to be

:15:38.:15:42.

welcomed by if you're trying it get on Twitter or use Twitter today. But

:15:43.:15:47.

we are technically working for a change! No worries there.

:15:48.:15:50.

Everything, so far, I'm going to curse it now! If you're looking at

:15:51.:15:55.

the screen, it is not us, it is Twitter!

:15:56.:16:00.

Now, we often take it for granted that we can scrutinise the profits

:16:01.:16:03.

They're listed on the world's stock markets and have

:16:04.:16:07.

to make their accounts public, but private firms don't

:16:08.:16:09.

have the same responsibilities to be so transparent.

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The companies you can see here all have one thing in common -

:16:12.:16:20.

they're all private and they dominate the economy.

:16:21.:16:22.

Public companies represent less than 1% off all business in the US.

:16:23.:16:25.

The rest are privately run by private owners.

:16:26.:16:28.

While that brings lots of freedoms, not being beholden

:16:29.:16:30.

to shareholders, fewer regulations over their financial statements

:16:31.:16:32.

and less scrutiny from people like us.

:16:33.:16:34.

But if you wanted to learn more about those firms or even invest

:16:35.:16:36.

in them, how can you get information about private businesses?

:16:37.:16:39.

Our next guest says he has the answer.

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Damian Kimmelman is founder and Chief Executive of DueDil.

:16:48.:16:55.

Damien nice to see you. Just explain how this works. It strikes me from

:16:56.:17:01.

that introduction that there are some things private firms want to

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keep private, but you're trying to cast a bit of a spotlight on those

:17:06.:17:08.

things. How do you get that information? So most people assume

:17:09.:17:12.

that the private in private companies refers to privacy when in

:17:13.:17:16.

fact it refers to privately held and as such people are sort of blind to

:17:17.:17:20.

the fact that there is a wealth of data on private businesses, but it

:17:21.:17:23.

is siloed. It is siloed in the businesses themselves. It is siloed

:17:24.:17:28.

in Government institutions like Companies House or HMRC, it is

:17:29.:17:36.

siloed online and we take all that information together and

:17:37.:17:39.

contextualise it. And it is a service that you ask your customers

:17:40.:17:45.

to pay for, is it? ?100 a month, is that correct? Annually, charged

:17:46.:17:51.

annually. And for that, they get, access to all this information which

:17:52.:17:54.

is actually freely available already. So why would I sign up? So,

:17:55.:18:06.

most businesses use services like Google or Linked In which aren't

:18:07.:18:11.

purpose-built solutions to find out this information. They use our

:18:12.:18:18.

service because it is purpose-built. That's why we see so many of our

:18:19.:18:28.

businesses that use it like Dell, Aviva, Linked In use our service to

:18:29.:18:33.

really find the right businesses at the right time in the right

:18:34.:18:38.

location. This was borne out of necessity. It says you had a bad

:18:39.:18:41.

experience with a firm and therefore, you know, you were burnt.

:18:42.:18:44.

Tell us what that was. What happened to give you this idea, this spark,

:18:45.:18:52.

this is what the market is missing? So I went into business with a guy

:18:53.:18:58.

who wasn't that savoury. He falsified his accounts. He used his

:18:59.:19:05.

falsified accounts to get a loan and I had not done my due diligence, my

:19:06.:19:10.

research, I realised there was a wealth of information on these

:19:11.:19:13.

businesses and it could be used for solving the two biggest problems

:19:14.:19:19.

facing businesses. How do I get new customers and how do I get paid? At

:19:20.:19:23.

the moment you operate in the UK and Ireland, is that correct? And 18

:19:24.:19:26.

other countries. In Europe mainly? Yes. That's mainly in Europe. In

:19:27.:19:32.

terms of further expansion, I mean, to be fair, tracking all these

:19:33.:19:36.

companies in those countries, I would imagine is an enormous task

:19:37.:19:41.

anyway for your company, but your thoughts on future expansion beyond

:19:42.:19:46.

that? Indeed. Well, let's not discount Europe as the second

:19:47.:19:52.

largest economy. There is a wealth of opportunity within Europe, but

:19:53.:19:56.

yes, we will be expanding internationally very soon.

:19:57.:20:00.

You have talked about experiences that you've gone through. It strikes

:20:01.:20:04.

me, and I asked you at the beginning, about the sort of

:20:05.:20:06.

information that these firms wouldn't want to release. Do you get

:20:07.:20:10.

any of these private firms of certain bits of information that

:20:11.:20:14.

people don't made public. You must get a bit of backlash from them

:20:15.:20:18.

saying I don't want this out there, there is a reason we have not listed

:20:19.:20:21.

on the stock market for that reason? Of course, we do. So you know, the

:20:22.:20:28.

biggest number of complaints that we get are from actors and actresses

:20:29.:20:32.

who have fibbed about their age and own companies. But the reality is

:20:33.:20:38.

that the biggest problems facing private businesses is not keeping

:20:39.:20:42.

this private, that's such a misconception, it is really how did

:20:43.:20:46.

I get new customers and how do I get paid? Interesting stuff. Best of

:20:47.:20:50.

luck with it. Damien, really nice to see you. Thank you for coming in.

:20:51.:20:59.

You go on holiday and you're no longer able to stream sites that

:21:00.:21:04.

you are at home like Netflix or BBC iPlayer?

:21:05.:21:10.

This is because companies block content that is not licensed

:21:11.:21:12.

But the EU is trying to change that and ban the practice from happening.

:21:13.:21:18.

One expert says there's a lot at stake.

:21:19.:21:26.

One thing is pretty certain from a consumer prospective, it is good

:21:27.:21:33.

news in that we are definitely going to get content portability very

:21:34.:21:36.

soon. That's the thing about taking your existing content abroad with

:21:37.:21:39.

you. It is less far how the Commission is going to go with this.

:21:40.:21:43.

I don't think it knows itself. It is still being debated. The defence of

:21:44.:21:47.

the media companies really true. The media companies say if we split the

:21:48.:21:52.

market up territorially, we can earn more money for creators and if that

:21:53.:21:56.

argument stands up, maybe the Commission won't go the whole way.

:21:57.:22:04.

Jane, welcome back. MI5 is rated the best workplace for employees

:22:05.:22:11.

equality. This is the Stonewall list of the best 100 employers for

:22:12.:22:16.

lesbian and gay staff. MI5 topping that list? It is great news. If you

:22:17.:22:21.

go back some decades they used to dig out homosexual people because it

:22:22.:22:26.

was illegal and it could be used as blackmail, it is wonderful that we

:22:27.:22:31.

have come to a different part of the spectrum. It is right that the

:22:32.:22:35.

people who work for MI5 have got to represent the communities they live

:22:36.:22:38.

in. There is no use in having people looking like James Bond when you are

:22:39.:22:41.

trying to find intelligence from different... They don't look like

:22:42.:22:47.

James Bond, Jane, is that what you're telling me. James Bond and

:22:48.:22:51.

Johnny English. He would be extremely visible if he was trying

:22:52.:22:55.

to do undercover work in some communities. It is quite a

:22:56.:22:58.

scientific process, it is not just that they have a notional group that

:22:59.:23:05.

is supporting lesbian or gay staff. There are strict criteria that have

:23:06.:23:08.

to be met by the employees who make the list? That's right. If we talk

:23:09.:23:12.

about MI5, but we can talk about other big organisations at the top

:23:13.:23:17.

of the list including the Metropolitan Police, the Royal Navy

:23:18.:23:20.

and again these are old institutions. It suggest that is

:23:21.:23:26.

they have been deliberately and very successfully trying to change their

:23:27.:23:30.

ways. It is a success story. Let's talk about OPEC now. It is claimed

:23:31.:23:34.

we've defeated the shale revolution. This is in the Times newspaper. I

:23:35.:23:38.

remember last year talking about this, you know, middle of last year

:23:39.:23:42.

when the sort of start of the oil price slide began and we all talked

:23:43.:23:46.

about the problems this would cause for shale producers where it is so

:23:47.:23:51.

much more expensive to get the stufs out of the ground? The Saudis and

:23:52.:23:55.

the Middle Eastern OPEC players have done this. Now, it does seem from

:23:56.:23:58.

this report, that they were trying to focus on the shale producers.

:23:59.:24:06.

Shale, of course, being a new... On what grounds? They are still

:24:07.:24:11.

operating. If you look at the amount of debt and if you look at the

:24:12.:24:14.

likelihood that some of these companies will go into default,

:24:15.:24:17.

that's really quite significant. I was looking at the S and P data. It

:24:18.:24:24.

said that last month around about 50% of energy junk bonds are

:24:25.:24:29.

distressed. In 2015 they said many of the companies in the US were

:24:30.:24:36.

being subsidised because they were running at a loss and this year some

:24:37.:24:40.

would go? It is not just in shale. Metals and mining because those

:24:41.:24:45.

prices at multiyear lows as well, it is not just oil. This is what Saudi

:24:46.:24:49.

wanted to do. They wanted to be the dominant player and what had

:24:50.:24:52.

happened over the last 25 years, there had been more investment and

:24:53.:24:57.

other types of supply of energy and of course, that meant that there was

:24:58.:25:02.

less power for the Saudis. A brief word before time is up on motor

:25:03.:25:10.

insurance forming an alliance to tackle driverless cars. Whether or

:25:11.:25:15.

not this is add and good story depends whether you are an insurer

:25:16.:25:22.

or consumer. Premiums could go down by 80% in 25 years time. But from

:25:23.:25:28.

the insurer's point of view, loss of revenue treatens their business, so

:25:29.:25:31.

they are getting together to see what they can do about it. Liability

:25:32.:25:36.

for accidents could shift from the driver to the manufacturer when

:25:37.:25:39.

things are automated. It will be interesting, who do you blame if you

:25:40.:25:44.

crash if it is a driverless car? The lawyers are usually the ones that

:25:45.:25:46.

come out with plenty of work! We're back tomorrow. It is Davos.

:25:47.:25:49.

See you soon. Hello. We're stuck with the cold

:25:50.:26:16.

weather, but where you had the lowest temperatures overnight, here

:26:17.:26:18.

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