01/02/2016 BBC Business Live


01/02/2016

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This is Business Live from BBC News with Sally Bundock and Ben Thompson.

:00:00.:00:07.

As oil trades at near historic lows, its producers feel the pressure.

:00:08.:00:10.

Nigeria is now calling on the World Bank for a massive loan

:00:11.:00:13.

Live from London, that's our top story on Monday

:00:14.:00:19.

The collapsing oil price claims its latest victim,

:00:20.:00:37.

Nigeria is to borrow billions of dollars from the world bank

:00:38.:00:40.

Also in the programme: We'll be discussing the UK's renegotiation

:00:41.:00:48.

of its EU membership as Donald Tusk and David Cameron meet again today

:00:49.:00:52.

And markets are up, Japan traded sharply higher today as investors

:00:53.:01:00.

continued to cheer Friday's surprise move by the central bank

:01:01.:01:03.

But the latest data from China dragged down shares in Shanghai.

:01:04.:01:10.

We meet the London firm that says it can deliver you anything

:01:11.:01:15.

within an hour, but it's facing some tough competition.

:01:16.:01:18.

And we'll assess what the papers are discussing with our look

:01:19.:01:22.

And remember you can get in touch with us, just use the

:01:23.:01:27.

The tumbling oil price continues to ravage businesses

:01:28.:01:42.

and governments around the World- today it's the turn of Nigeria.

:01:43.:01:52.

to cover its growing budget deficit, a shortfall brought

:01:53.:01:57.

about by the collapse in crude prices.

:01:58.:02:01.

Oil is vital for the Nigerian economy.

:02:02.:02:02.

It accounts for around two-thirds of government revenue and nearly

:02:03.:02:05.

Brent is currently hovering around $35 per barrel and, despite a recent

:02:06.:02:12.

rally in oil prices, crude is still down 70%

:02:13.:02:15.

And that's prompted the Nigerian government to request $2.5 billion

:02:16.:02:25.

from the World Bank and a reported $1 billion from the

:02:26.:02:29.

Razia Khan, Head of African Economics at Standard Chartered,

:02:30.:02:41.

What more do we know about the terms and conditions and the loan itself

:02:42.:02:55.

being offered? I expect we will get more detail in time but we shouldn't

:02:56.:03:00.

be surprised by this. The Nigerian government that came to power last

:03:01.:03:04.

year has gone for a counter cyclical budget looking to increase spending

:03:05.:03:07.

and looking to ensure that a lot more of the budget is earmarked for

:03:08.:03:14.

development expenditure. Essentially, for infrastructure

:03:15.:03:16.

projects. This is seen as necessary at a time of weak growth because of

:03:17.:03:22.

the oil price shock. Nigeria has many options open in terms of the

:03:23.:03:27.

financing of that budget. It could go to international capital markets,

:03:28.:03:32.

issued another Euro bond. What we seem to be hearing from the Finance

:03:33.:03:37.

Ministry is that if there is more concessional financing available for

:03:38.:03:40.

this infrastructure projects, White not take advantage of cheaper

:03:41.:03:44.

financing rather than going to the markets at a time when everybody is

:03:45.:03:48.

very nervous about the oil price outlook and what that might mean for

:03:49.:03:54.

Nigeria. In terms of how this will work, what conditions are attached?

:03:55.:03:58.

We don't yet know about that. When we look at conditionality that would

:03:59.:04:03.

accompany an IMF programme, perhaps what needs to be in place is general

:04:04.:04:09.

would like approval of the overall economic policy in Nigeria. It is

:04:10.:04:13.

not clear there will be any hard conditionality, structural

:04:14.:04:15.

benchmarks or performance criteria are set. Nigeria, for now, and we

:04:16.:04:22.

ran through the numbers about how heavily dependent they are on oil

:04:23.:04:26.

revenue, what country next? In terms of the falling oil price, we know it

:04:27.:04:31.

is affecting all producers, but Nigeria more than most. Who's next?

:04:32.:04:37.

This is an interesting question. We have seen healthier oil prices, but

:04:38.:04:42.

also better access to international capital markets for a range of

:04:43.:04:46.

African sovereigns. Whether or not they were when producers. Often we

:04:47.:04:50.

were finding a preference for issuing externally because it was

:04:51.:04:54.

relatively cheap when it wasn't really the case that countries had

:04:55.:04:57.

made full use of the concessional financing available to them. I think

:04:58.:05:02.

there is still? Around this. How much should we be seeing it as

:05:03.:05:06.

Nigeria looking to borrow from the World Bank and the African

:05:07.:05:09.

development bank because of the current level of one prices which

:05:10.:05:13.

work how much are they thinking through their longer term choices

:05:14.:05:15.

for financing infrastructure spending? One we will watch closely.

:05:16.:05:19.

Thank you. The European Council president

:05:20.:05:23.

Donald Tusk exited last night's talks with British Prime

:05:24.:05:25.

Minister David Cameron, saying there was no deal yet over

:05:26.:05:27.

the UK's relationship with the EU. The UK's Prime Minister seeks

:05:28.:05:32.

to restrict welfare payments for EU migrants and prevent Britain

:05:33.:05:34.

from being drawn into further Mr Cameron is aiming to strike

:05:35.:05:37.

a deal to be put before EU leaders ahead of a summit in just

:05:38.:05:44.

over two weeks. Manufacturing in China

:05:45.:05:48.

slowed again in January, hitting the weakest level

:05:49.:05:50.

in more than three years. The economy is already growing

:05:51.:05:54.

at the slowest rate in a quarter of a century and one trillion

:05:55.:05:57.

dollars has flown out of its stock The UK's biggest bank, HSBC,

:05:58.:06:00.

is to impose a global freeze on pay Details sent to staff yesterday

:06:01.:06:06.

outline the measures as part In June, HSBC told investors it

:06:07.:06:10.

would slash $5 billion Barclays is to be fined 70-million

:06:11.:06:15.

dollars for misleading investors about its so-called 'dark

:06:16.:06:24.

pool' trading operations. Dark pools allow investors to trade

:06:25.:06:28.

shares - while keeping A settlement with Credit Suisse -

:06:29.:06:30.

which is expected to pay 84-million dollars - is also

:06:31.:06:36.

expected later today. Let's take you to the business live

:06:37.:06:51.

page. And stories we can fit in but rose Royce are winning a new order

:06:52.:06:54.

from Norwegian airlines would streamline engines. There is a lot

:06:55.:06:59.

of rivalry between point and Airbus but it seems they have plumped for a

:07:00.:07:05.

point with their true minor for $1.9 billion worth. That is 19. The

:07:06.:07:10.

lucrative part of this is the long-term maintenance contract. We

:07:11.:07:13.

will talk about energy because we were talking about the cost of oil.

:07:14.:07:18.

When it comes to our homes, the cost of energy delivery is going up. All

:07:19.:07:25.

and gas prices are falling. But before that as filter through to our

:07:26.:07:29.

bills, we hope. Not quite. Refund of one energy firms says the cost of

:07:30.:07:32.

delivery is rising. That is getting it to our homes and that is keeping

:07:33.:07:37.

the price higher. Not least on top of the extra things like tax and

:07:38.:07:41.

other costs that go into making up your bill. Toyota making headlines

:07:42.:07:47.

for all the wrong reasons. It is hard to stop car production in Japan

:07:48.:07:51.

because they are running out of parts. Let's go to Singapore. This

:07:52.:07:56.

sounds astonishing that a car-maker as big as Toyota pass to stop

:07:57.:08:03.

production. Tell us more. It is a supply chain problem. They have run

:08:04.:08:07.

out of parts. Due to a shortage of steel used in making things like

:08:08.:08:13.

engines and transmissions. They are stopping production starting from

:08:14.:08:15.

the bridge it, which is conveniently the Chinese New Year. It will run

:08:16.:08:18.

until the 15th. That is not a huge amount of time

:08:19.:08:28.

but it will stop production. The producer was badly damaged in an

:08:29.:08:32.

explosion in January so Toda have said they were looking for

:08:33.:08:35.

alternative options, including sourcing parts and components from

:08:36.:08:38.

other steelmakers. They really give no specifics as to how the car is

:08:39.:08:44.

produced in Japan will be affected. What we know is that overseas

:08:45.:08:49.

factories will not be affected. We do know that Toyota produced about 4

:08:50.:08:54.

million cars in Japan last year and that nearly half of those were

:08:55.:08:58.

exported. If someone ordered the latest hybrid and they are codified

:08:59.:09:03.

it will not notify -- not arrive on time, we know why. Investors aren't

:09:04.:09:09.

too concerned because shares rose 2% along with the -- broader market.

:09:10.:09:17.

Japan had a good session. True to jurors are higher. Most stocks are

:09:18.:09:22.

because the Japanese yen is cheaper because of the cut in interest

:09:23.:09:28.

rates. But boosted trade there. Hong Kong and Shanghai had a tough

:09:29.:09:32.

session following news about factory data out of a January showing

:09:33.:09:35.

contraction begin. That was because of Wall Street. But look at Europe.

:09:36.:09:40.

To get a sense of how the new week is shaping up, we are all in the red

:09:41.:09:45.

at the moment. But of companies coming up with earnings. We will

:09:46.:09:48.

talk more about that. Let's look ahead to what will happen on Wall

:09:49.:09:50.

Street. This is a big week for earning

:09:51.:10:00.

reports and data. The parent company of Google report their

:10:01.:10:03.

fourth-quarter results for the first time. The company said the numbers

:10:04.:10:09.

will be broken into two categories. Google and what it calls other

:10:10.:10:15.

things, such as calico and nest. After Facebook reported strong

:10:16.:10:19.

mobile Avenue -- advertising revenue, and this will look to see

:10:20.:10:25.

how Google is doing. The maker of Barbie dolls report the latest

:10:26.:10:28.

earnings after it straight quarters of falling sales, investors are

:10:29.:10:30.

looking for a strong holiday quarter. While the big economic news

:10:31.:10:37.

this week is the jobs report, this Monday sees report on the

:10:38.:10:40.

manufacturing sector and on consumer spending.

:10:41.:10:42.

Joining us is James Hughes, Chief Market Analyst,

:10:43.:10:44.

Nice to see you. But just touch on China. Another slowdown in growth.

:10:45.:10:57.

How worried should we be? The workshop of the word slowing down,

:10:58.:11:03.

we knew that already. I don't think we should be more worried about the

:11:04.:11:06.

latest figures but we should be worried about the overall slowdown,

:11:07.:11:10.

to be honest. That is being shown in these markets up until now. The fact

:11:11.:11:15.

that these numbers are still falling and they are likely to continue

:11:16.:11:19.

falling. It is not just manufacturing, it is imports and

:11:20.:11:23.

exports, GDP. Everywhere you look, there is a problem in China. We have

:11:24.:11:26.

to be ready for this word China. Markets seem to go yes when

:11:27.:11:37.

they bank of Japan cut interest rates. Are we feeling the effects?

:11:38.:11:46.

Most definitely. We saw a hellish start to the year and then all of a

:11:47.:11:50.

sudden the bank of Japan, and it was out of the blue, we didn't expect

:11:51.:11:55.

it, we get it and it wipes out a lot of the negativity we have had so we

:11:56.:11:58.

are starting from scratch again which is a good thing for the

:11:59.:12:05.

markets. Let's talk -- touch on Ryanair. They raised their profit

:12:06.:12:06.

guidance in September and it been cut back as a result of those

:12:07.:12:13.

terror threats in Paris and tough competition in the market. Where are

:12:14.:12:16.

we with Ryanair in terms of what the market expects? Expectations are

:12:17.:12:19.

going little bit in terms of what are singing airlines and it has been

:12:20.:12:23.

a struggle and industry for a fact they are now saying they are

:12:24.:12:33.

likely to get end of year profit figures is really a good sign when

:12:34.:12:37.

there With Ryanair are doing so, talking

:12:38.:12:46.

about terror threats and lower prices

:12:47.:12:55.

positivity there. For quite a while, there has not been. Especially...

:12:56.:12:58.

Ryanair has thrown off the cheap and nasty image and now it is... It is

:12:59.:13:03.

no experience as well. You have to

:13:04.:13:09.

remember Ryanair is fighting a big reputation of situation. Good stuff.

:13:10.:13:13.

Thank you Still to come, delivered

:13:14.:13:15.

to your door at the touch It was once the stuff of science

:13:16.:13:18.

fiction, but these days you can get We meet one firm that says it can

:13:19.:13:24.

do it within the hour, You're with Business

:13:25.:13:27.

Live from BBC News. Budget airline Ryanair has

:13:28.:13:39.

reported its third quarter results this morning and says its on track

:13:40.:13:42.

to meet its full-year profit Higher passenger numbers helped

:13:43.:13:45.

to make up for lower fares and the airline says it will return

:13:46.:13:48.

?600 million to shareholders The Chief Financial Officer

:13:49.:13:51.

of Ryanair is Neil Sorahan, Thank you for being on the

:13:52.:14:08.

programme. Strong set of numbers yet again. You have highlighted some

:14:09.:14:14.

issues that hit you after September last year like all airlines.

:14:15.:14:18.

Sentiment was against you following what happened in Paris at the end of

:14:19.:14:23.

last year. Also, the lower price of oil helping you. There are strong

:14:24.:14:31.

set of numbers. Our profit was up 110% to 103 million. The first half

:14:32.:14:35.

of the quarter was strong but after the Paris and Brussels events on

:14:36.:14:39.

November 13, the sort softness in the market which we reacted to with

:14:40.:14:44.

price promotions and discounting. The outcome was that we saw our

:14:45.:14:49.

passenger numbers increase by 20% to 25 million and our load factor was

:14:50.:14:54.

up five percentage points to 23%. Cost performance in the quarter was

:14:55.:15:03.

excellent and we came in with 103 million when our average was down 1%

:15:04.:15:06.

to 40 euros. A good performance in the quarter. Talk us through the

:15:07.:15:09.

weight the higher passenger numbers helped to offset lower fares because

:15:10.:15:13.

he faced tough competition in the market and clearly you need to cut

:15:14.:15:16.

fares to keep passengers on board but you are managing to keep in line

:15:17.:15:17.

with that guidance. Is We have got the lowest costs of

:15:18.:15:27.

any airline out there. Our costs per passenger excluding fuel was 29 euro

:15:28.:15:32.

last year. The next nearest to us would be 35% higher and easyJet

:15:33.:15:38.

would be 80% higher on their cost per passenger. That's something that

:15:39.:15:44.

Ryanair is well able to do. As we move into the next quarter, Q 4,

:15:45.:15:51.

March 2016, we're guiding that our fares will be down on average 6%,

:15:52.:15:59.

however we have got lower costs. Our fares will be down about 2% which

:16:00.:16:03.

means we will be profitable again. We're out of time. The chief

:16:04.:16:07.

financial of Ryanair, we appreciate your time. That's the latest from

:16:08.:16:12.

that budget carrier. More on the tablet.

:16:13.:16:17.

Our top story, Nigeria has asked the World Bank for an emergency loan

:16:18.:16:22.

to cover the country's growing budget deficit.

:16:23.:16:23.

The Nigerian economy has been hit hard by the collapse in oil prices

:16:24.:16:29.

and the World Bank says it's been asked for $2.5 billion,

:16:30.:16:36.

with a further $1 billion reportedly sought from

:16:37.:16:38.

Imagine ordering something online and getting it delivered

:16:39.:16:43.

That's what one central London firm is promising to its customers.

:16:44.:16:47.

Quiqup has 500 drivers who say they can deliver almost anything,

:16:48.:16:54.

from picking up your favourite hamburger to bringing you keys

:16:55.:16:56.

Using a mobile app, it aims to deliver your order within an hour

:16:57.:17:01.

but only within central London at the moment.

:17:02.:17:03.

Since it started in 2014, Quiqup says it's made more

:17:04.:17:11.

With me is Bassel El Koussa, co-founder and Chief Executive of

:17:12.:17:16.

You said it is now 200,000? Actually more than that. We need to keep

:17:17.:17:28.

things confidential in this industry. 200,000 deliveries since

:17:29.:17:34.

2014. Talk us through this. There is a lot of competition in that market.

:17:35.:17:40.

You're offering more than them because it is not just about food,

:17:41.:17:43.

this is about everything and as we said, it could be the keys you left

:17:44.:17:47.

in the office, a bunch of flowers or the food you want, a takeaway. This

:17:48.:17:53.

is becoming a very competitive space because there is a lot of demand for

:17:54.:17:57.

faster lifestyle for people to get that kind of convenience. What we

:17:58.:18:03.

look to do differently is to kind of bring power to the retailers and

:18:04.:18:09.

give you the ability to pretty much get anything you want. Anything that

:18:10.:18:15.

you could usually find on an E commerce website, you can source

:18:16.:18:19.

within 14 kilometre radius from where you stand in the metropolitan

:18:20.:18:26.

area. We look to flip the E commerce model on its head and we end up

:18:27.:18:32.

giving local businesses the ability to compete and stay relevant in the

:18:33.:18:37.

growing E commerce space. We are giving them legs, the ability to be

:18:38.:18:42.

online and reach customers. Is that the bit with smaller retailers are

:18:43.:18:47.

lacking, they can't take on the big retrailers and it is a labour

:18:48.:18:50.

intensive process if you're promising to get stuff to people

:18:51.:18:54.

within an hour, you need a lot of drivers in a lot of places to meet

:18:55.:18:57.

the deadline. That must cost you money though? 100%, but the thing is

:18:58.:19:03.

the difference between us carrying that and the retailers themselves

:19:04.:19:06.

carrying that is that we end up being able to benefit from different

:19:07.:19:10.

patterns of demand throughout the day because people buy things at

:19:11.:19:15.

different times of the day and there are different behaviours that

:19:16.:19:18.

aggregate into us creating a level of efficiency with our business.

:19:19.:19:21.

Imagine people order lunch at certain times and dinner at certain

:19:22.:19:25.

times, but they order groceries at certain times and we can keep our

:19:26.:19:30.

drivers busy. That's how the model becomes profitable. It is all about

:19:31.:19:35.

that operational efficiency that we can create. How expensive is it? I

:19:36.:19:42.

have left my keys here and it causes havoc. If I was to order a Quiqup to

:19:43.:19:49.

pick them up and bring them to my house. Generally speaking, is it

:19:50.:19:52.

something that's do-able for most people? OK, so there are two sides

:19:53.:19:59.

of the service. There is the pure convenience side where you want to

:20:00.:20:03.

just get get something from wherever you want and it is not from a

:20:04.:20:07.

retailer that we have a relationship with and so, then you would carry

:20:08.:20:12.

the cost of that delivery. Whereas, it would average ?5 for you to do

:20:13.:20:17.

something like that. If we have a partnership with a specific retailer

:20:18.:20:22.

or restaurant, it would be as low as ?1.50. We are running out of time.

:20:23.:20:30.

But I want to mention the Quiqup dog. Something we're finding with a

:20:31.:20:35.

lot of our entrepreneurs, who come in, there is a dog that's with the

:20:36.:20:41.

company, but also how cute is your dog. Quickly, you're from Lebanon

:20:42.:20:47.

and you ran a business there and a lot of what you learned there, or

:20:48.:20:51.

put into practise there, is what you're finding is really helpful in

:20:52.:20:56.

London? Life is about experiences and you learn things along the way.

:20:57.:20:59.

I didn't run a business in Lebanon, I was part of a family business. I

:21:00.:21:05.

grew up in an entrepreneurial household and it helped a lot. It is

:21:06.:21:09.

a place you need to be very versatile and so a lot of the things

:21:10.:21:11.

I learned in that experience, I brought with me here.

:21:12.:21:16.

Really nice to see you. Time is tight, but really nice to see you.

:21:17.:21:17.

Thank you so much. In a moment, we'll but getting more

:21:18.:21:20.

on the UK's EU membership negotiations but first here's

:21:21.:21:23.

a quick look at some of the papers. The Telegraph reports that

:21:24.:21:26.

Saudi Arabia faces years of austerity as the low oil

:21:27.:21:28.

price forces the kingdom In other oil related news,

:21:29.:21:31.

the Washington Post says that

:21:32.:21:41.

Venezuela is on the brink with an inflation rate

:21:42.:21:42.

running at a massive 720%. The Guardian focuses on that

:21:43.:21:46.

EU UK renegotiation. The paper claims that

:21:47.:21:48.

David Cameron's hopes of early EU referendum have receded

:21:49.:21:50.

as his attempt to broker a deal David Cameron and European Council

:21:51.:21:53.

President Donald Tusk are set for a "crucial" day of talks

:21:54.:21:59.

about the UK's renegotiated A meeting last night

:22:00.:22:02.

ended without a deal, though a Downing Street sources say

:22:03.:22:10.

there had been a "breakthrough" on restricting benefits

:22:11.:22:12.

for EU migrants. Robert Oulds, director

:22:13.:22:14.

of The Bruges Group, A little earlier he gave us his

:22:15.:22:15.

thoughts on today's negotiations. Well, I think we will get more

:22:16.:22:26.

political theatre. We will get the position of David Cameron trying to

:22:27.:22:29.

argue that he is trying to force a real change in Britain's terms of

:22:30.:22:32.

and under resistance from other EU and under resistance from other EU

:22:33.:22:36.

leaders in advance of a deal at the European Council meeting later in

:22:37.:22:41.

February. They would only be minor changes and the issue of migrants

:22:42.:22:47.

access to benefits is a side issue. It is not the burning issue in

:22:48.:22:51.

British politics that we need to get resolved. Whilst you are in the

:22:52.:22:56.

European Union, there is still supremacy of EU law over national

:22:57.:22:59.

laws and there are still costs, David Cameron isn't getting to a

:23:00.:23:03.

grip of those major issues and the issue of migrants access to benefits

:23:04.:23:07.

is something that's been invented by David Cameron so he can project

:23:08.:23:11.

himself as a Euro-sceptic, but it doesn't mean that Britain would stop

:23:12.:23:18.

paying billions to the EU each year. That the supremacy of EU law. So

:23:19.:23:21.

really, we need substantial window-dressing.

:23:22.:23:33.

That's one view there. Peter Wilding joins us now. Peter,

:23:34.:23:38.

welcome to Business Live. In or out, what is your view on the UK's

:23:39.:23:44.

continued membership. Where should we lob k looking? We should be a

:23:45.:23:49.

leading nation within Europe and by being a leading nation within

:23:50.:23:53.

Europe, we will continue to be a leading nation within the globe.

:23:54.:23:57.

Europe is a leaver of power we have. We want a reformed European Union.

:23:58.:24:01.

We have a great number of allies who want the same. I believe you will

:24:02.:24:06.

see that deal done on 19th February. If we don't get reforms or changes

:24:07.:24:11.

that many are arguing that they want including the likes of the

:24:12.:24:16.

Confederation of British Industry, are you still for us remaining in?

:24:17.:24:20.

Well, there are four reforms the Prime Minister wants. He wants the

:24:21.:24:24.

completion of the single market, more competitiveness, less red tape,

:24:25.:24:27.

more power for national parliaments, an end to ever closer union and the

:24:28.:24:32.

final migration issue. He has got deals on all of those. The only

:24:33.:24:35.

thing we're waiting for right now is the breakthrough that you just

:24:36.:24:39.

mentioned a second ago. It seems to me that Number Ten and Donald Tusk

:24:40.:24:46.

have got agreement, the 24 hours of negotiation are really about ironing

:24:47.:24:49.

out the details. But the detail will be the bit that determines whether

:24:50.:24:54.

we remain within Europe because the detail is what everybody needs to

:24:55.:24:57.

know, that's what the detail that will affect our day-to-day lives. It

:24:58.:25:00.

is all well and good having the headline agreement, but until the

:25:01.:25:03.

detail filters through to the red tape on business, on the benefits

:25:04.:25:06.

from migrants coming to the UK, those are the details that people

:25:07.:25:10.

will get so concerned about? Well, yeah. The Prime Minister has made

:25:11.:25:14.

his case clear. If he gets what he has demanded then he has succeeded

:25:15.:25:18.

and it will be presented to the country, but we must remember here

:25:19.:25:20.

and businesses watching our programme will be be guiled by the

:25:21.:25:25.

fact that we are talking about these microissues. Britain's membership of

:25:26.:25:31.

the European Union is about much more than indeed the microdetails,

:25:32.:25:35.

it is about Britain playing its part in the world, opening up markets,

:25:36.:25:38.

creating jobs and making sure there are more profits. I would hate it if

:25:39.:25:45.

this debate just simply came down to fear and economics when it is really

:25:46.:25:49.

about the power of Britain in the modern world and I think that's

:25:50.:25:53.

really what this is all about. . Peter, thank you very much.

:25:54.:25:56.

We will see you soon. Hello there. The start of February

:25:57.:26:12.

and we've got the eighth named storm hurtling in off the Atlantic. The

:26:13.:26:16.

centre of Storm Henry will pass between Iceland and the United

:26:17.:26:18.

Kingdom, but

:26:19.:26:19.

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