18/04/2016 BBC Business Live

This is Business Live from BBC News with Ben Thompson and Sally Bundock.

Oil prices fall again as the world's biggest producers once again fail

Live from London, that's our top story on the 18th of April.

There were high hopes that the world's top oil producers

would finally agree to cut production to prop up prices.

But there was no deal and it's sent prices even lower.

We'll find out why - and what it means for us.

The world's major steel producers meet to tackle

the massive oversupply - and how to deal with floods

And commodity prices take a hit after oil

That's putting pressure on the wider market.

We meet the man behind L'Oreal's Tech team who's applying

new ideas to solve age old problems, like this patch that tells

you when you've been in the sun too long!

And the British Government claims that leaving the EU would cost every

UK household over $6,000 a year in lost income.

So we are asking you if a few thousand dollars

would swing your vote in a referendum on how your

Hello and a very warm welcome to the programme.

There was a lot riding on this weekend.

The world's top oil producers were meeting in the Qatari capital,

Doha, to thrash out a deal to stabilise oil prices.

There was no agreement to cap production, saying they

That statement was enough to tip oil prices down another 5%.

At the moment, more than 1.5 million barrels of crude are produced every

That is surplus supply, according to the International Energy Agency,

It says that oversupply will fall to 200,000 barrels per day

But the agency says freezing at current levels would have limited

impact, as both Saudi Arabia and Russia are already pumping

And Iran is unlikely to agree to a freeze,

as it wants to boost production to the level it was at

before international sanctions were imposed.

That's about 4 million barrels a day.

Saudi Arabia - the key player in all of this - had counted

on rock-bottom oil killing off America's shale energy boom.

But America's frackers - although they've been hit -

are proving more resilient that Saudi thought - and investors

are actually putting money back into shale once again.

Harry Tchilinguirian is the Global Head of

Commodity Markets Strategy at BNP Paribas.

He joins me. Good morning. Thank you for coming on. I wasn't surprised to

hear there was no agreement. Your reaction? Equally so. I think we had

a meeting here that was no starter from the beginning. We had two

countries pitted against each other, the Middle East and rival Saudi

Arabia and Iran. Saudi Arabia made it clear they wanted collective

action, everyone including Iran. The position of Iran was there was no

way they would not increase production because they are looking

to reclaim the market share they lost during the sanctions, as

imposed by the EU and US. Where do we go from here? I guess the market

is going to look at the current situation and see producer relations

in disarray. With producers unable to operate we cannot expect much

from the next meeting in June. At that point it will be down to price

adjustments in the market and only the price. I think from now on the

only thing to look at is what is going to happen in the United

States, with shale oil production. That is the only element of the

market that could bring balance back to the market. What price does or

we'll need to be out for the shale producers to be breaking even?

Because they have been running a loss for some time? Yes, the US

shale industry... There are very different types of basins in the US.

I would say in terms of price it would be 40- $50. Right now we are

looking for decline in US production and the real question is, by how

much? If it is sufficient, then the market will get back on its feet. If

it's not, the price will have to stay lower for longer to make the

adjustments can. Where do you think the price will be towards the end of

the year? We are looking between 30- $40, with a view that by the end of

the year, as we have some rebound in the market, we can probably achieve

in the mid-40s by year end. Thank you for your time, Harry. There is

so much more about the Doha meeting, what went wrong and what little went

right. Leaders from the global steel

industry will meet in Brussels later for crisis talks,

as cheap Chinese exports force down prices and threaten

thousands of jobs. A slowdown in domestic demand

in China, as its economy slows, has prompted Chinese producers

to sell steel abroad, The BBC's Alex Forsyth reports

from Brussels. Representatives from around 30

countries from across the world are gathering here in central

Brussels today, to discuss the crisis that's facing

the global steel industry. Overproduction, coupled with falling

consumption has caused Since 2008 dozens of plants

across Europe have closed, and around 70,000 jobs in steel

manufacturing have gone. This problem has been brought

into sharp focus in the UK by the recent decision of Tata Steel

to sell its UK assets, But there is recognition that this

is a global problem which requires which requires a global approach,

and the hope is the officials taking part in this

conference today will be able to agree a series of measures

to curb overproduction, specifically looking at the role

of governments in shoring up steel-making plants

which are producing steel Now it's significant that officials

from China are due to attend today to take place in these talks,

because cheap Chinese steel is largely blamed

for distorting market conditions, so reaching an agreement with China

involved will make this Brazil's lower house of Congress has

voted to start impeachment proceedings against President Dilma

Rousseff. The Brazilian leader is facing

allegations that she manipulated It comes as the country's economy

struggles in the wake Brazil's GDP fell

by 3.8% last year. The first Air France flight

has landed in Tehran, after a gap of seven

and a half years. The airline suspended flights

to Tehran in October 2008, as the UN On board the flight was a delegation

of French business leaders There is plenty of story, website

page today. The steel crisis. As you heard from Alex, a lot at stake with

30 nations represented. Keep across this as the page is updated, they

will update you as and when there is news from there.

I just stopped talking... It was a lottery of stories on the

live pages this morning. Also today you can see the news from Bob

Dudley. Last week we brought you the revolt of shareholders over his

bonus. BP said it misled shareholders over the pay. A 20% pay

rise was afforded to him despite falling sales, a big loss at BP and

those thousands of job losses that were announced for employees. They

say they got it wrong and have apologised.

Thank you. Let's talk about Japan now.

A number of key Japanese manufacturers have been forced

to suspended production after two powerful earthquakes hit

Electronics giant Sony, as well as car makers

Honda and Toyota say their plants have been damaged.

Karishma Vaswani is in Singapore with more on this.

As we said, some well-known names really suffering the fallout of this

devastating earthquake? Yes indeed. Thousands of people are also still

living without power and many of them left homeless. The government

is trying to deploy its resources to be badly affected areas, but as you

pointed out, it is time to gauge the cost to the Japanese economy from

this horrible disaster. A number of Japanese companies have suspended

operations since those two powerful earthquakes struck what was the

southern manufacturing hub of the affected area. It is supposedly less

prone to earthquakes in this area. This city, quite close to the

epicentre, has a large semiconductor industry. It is also home to

manufacturers like we were just talking about, Sony and Honda. They

have both said there has been damaged at their plants. Toyota says

it has suffered as well, and is suspending operations at most its

assembly plants across Japan. This suspension will be staggered but it

will last about week. That is expected to lead to a drop in

production, around 50,000 vehicles. So a real sense that the global

supply chain of these companies may be affected as a result of these two

powerful earthquakes. Thank you very much. As we heard, a human tragedy

and one where the financial impact is filtering across as well. We will

keep your Groser as news developments. But now those oil

prices over those talks in Doha failed to reach agreement. Brent

Crude Down about 5% initially, and still close to that. Light Crude

also down about the same. The next meeting is on June the 2nd but no

big hopes on any change of output. But of course, all that speculation

of a deal had led to some high hopes for banks and mining stocks. That

spill over from rising commodity prices would have helped them, but

as easy, probably going to take a bit of a hit as a result of this.

That's what happened in Asia overnight. I want to take you to

Europe, Europe just opened. No surprises, the arrows are red. More

on that in a moment, but first began head stateside with details about

what is ahead on Wall Street today. US investors will come into work

on Monday with plenty America's biggest companies

are showing investors how much money they made and lost in the first

three months of the year. Morgan Stanley,

the investment bank, is expected to show a sharp fall

in quarterly profit. Many investors have resigned

themselves to the biggest banks suffering their worst

start to the year since the It's a different story in soft

drinks or snacks, or it should be if PepsiCo

meet expectations. It seen its sales in the US

boosted, even though the strong US dollar is hurting

its overseas business. Other companies reporting

include Netflix and IBM, and that's just at the start

of the week. Wall Street is definitely

getting busy. Joining us is Simon Derrick,

Chief Markets Strategist, Nice to see you. Happy Monday. So

dominated despite what's coming later, it's all about oil right now?

It is. What we have to start thinking about is how this impacts

on broader markets. We have seen what has happened to the minors and

stock miners. We also expect to see pressure on a lot of the currencies

of oil producing nations. Interesting there is possibly a

bigger impact, and this comes from what the Federal reserve might do.

The US central bank. They were very cautious about market turmoil at the

start of the year, including weak oil prices. If they see this as

another reason for market disruption, which they may possibly

do, does this mean that they will be even more cautious about hiking

rates this year? In which case we have a very different world and

dollar to the one we experience last year. No huge surprise they didn't

come to a deal in Doha this weekend. Is this a perfect example of

mis-selling the facts? We were expecting they might pull something

out of the bag, markets were a little excited something would

happen and then you look at the numbers today... If you go back to

this time yesterday morning, all the talk was about a deal being struck.

Reports of draft agreements and perhaps there was going to be a

freeze on production. They may have been hopes lifted. I think the way

this has broken a little bit after the start of market trading in Asia

possibly caught a few people unawares. Was it a case of

mis-selling the facts? Were we really that surprised? And markets

just throwing things around? There is never a dull moment. Still to

come, global tech and cosmetics collide.

We meet the man who heads up L'Oreal's Tech team and find out

what new ideas are being used to help out with some

You're with Business Live from BBC News.

Research published by the Treasury this morning says the UK economy

will be 6% smaller by 2030, if Britain leaves the EU.

Chancellor George Osborne will say the country will be ?4,300

But Vote Leave campaigners say Mr Osborne's economic predictions

Our Economics Editor Kamal Ahmed joins us.

Kamal, how significant is this report?

Well, I have just come back from the International Monetary Fund meeting

in Washington actually with the Chancellor and I think what he is

trying to do here is just keep trying to get this fact into the

public's mind that there will be a shocking economic cost if Britain

were to leave the European Union. I think there are lots of issues with

this document. It has been done by treasury economists. It has taken

months to put together and the biggest issue is the fact that this

forecast is for 2030. Can you imagine if a forecast had come out

in 20002 about what the economy would be like today, how strongly if

we went back do the 2002 document, how clear would it be about what the

economy would be like now? This is the period that the document is

looking and it is difficult to predict by 2030 what the economy

will look like. The other issue is they are saying there will be this

contraction to the economy. Let's be clear though, this is not actually

about ?4300 costs to each individual household's income, it is a global

Figg simply divided by the 26.5 million households there are in the

UK, but the big point that George Osborne wants to make and the point

he was making at the IMF in Washington and he will be making in

his speech today, there is an economic cost, it is long-term and

it will, if we leave the European Union, permanently damage the UK. As

you say, those who say that Vote Leave, those who support us leaving

the European Union say that actually we would be more prosperous, if we

left the European Union, and also that forecasts at this far into the

future are not really worth the 200 pages that they are written on.

Thank you, Kamal. More from him online. If you want to

read more detail about the 200 page document. Full details on the live

page. Check it out now. Our top story, major

oil exporting nations, meeting in Qatar, have failed

to secure an agreement They had been hoping to strike

a deal that would limit output to try to boost prices which have

slumped dramatically Let's get the inside track now

on a digital innovation that could quite literally change

the face of an industry. Technology has already taken

the fitness market by storm with all sorts of wearable devices

and lifestyle trackers. Well, now it's the turn

of the beauty sector. L'oreal's latest innovation,

from its Tech lab in San Francisco is a wearable patch that measures

how long you've been in the sun. And the man behind it

all is Guive Balooch, And you have got one on your hand?

Yes, I do. That's wearable tech. I guess once you've got it on, you

don't know it is there, do you? It is interesting because what happened

now with wearables you have been able to take electronics and make

them so thin, you can put them on the body and they feel like a second

skin. How does it tell you what you need to know? You open the

application and you will take a photo of the heart itself and it

will let you know on the app what the level of exposure you have to

the UV at the moment and how long you have been exposed during the day

and it will tell you with a graph, the amounts of time you have had UV

exposure and at what moments you have had the highest levels of

exposure and give you tips and lifestyle tips in terms of living a

better life in the sun. I can't imagine there is much need for that

in the UK! We don't get much sun! Talk us through how you would use

that on a day-to-day basis, do you wear it over the course of your

holiday? The idea is if it is a special few days that you are at the

beach or if you want to go out on a day-to-day and your comments about

the UK, a lot of times you're getting UVA and it is cloudy outside

and you don't know the level of exposure because you feel you're not

gettingks posed. There is the bad type of UVA and the OK type, do you

differentiate? You can get a good amount of vitamin D when it comes to

UV, it is to give you education in terms of how much exposure you are

getting on a day-to-day. The education is very much needed. So

the technology itself is free so we're providing this as really an

empowerment tool to let people educate themselves in terms of the

amount of UV exposure they have and to use the products of an innovative

brand we have around dermatology and UV exposure. We talk about

technology being a new solution to age old problems, but it is

applicable across-the-board, it is about how you can technology. The

thing you've got on your hand there, it is tiny, it is really thin, there

is all the electronics embedded within it. The opportunities for the

way you do things now are, the potential is huge? Yeah, I think

that technology provides really a moment where consumers can become in

the centre of the experience. So in the beauty industry what we want to

do in L'Oreal, we are trying to be in the front when it comes to being

able to use technology as a way to empower consumers to choose better

products and to be able to use the best products for them. So I think

that this is really an area where you will see wearables, virtual

reality and augmented reality and this new tech innovation in the

middle of the consumer experience where they can empower consumers for

can yous tomorrowised choices and for better lifestyle and the

potential is really huge among the markets, I think. Now, I was asking

for another question, but I am not allowed. We are out of time

unfortunately. No problem, thank you for having me. There was so much

more to talk about, it is fascinating. Thank you.

As India overtook China as the world's fastest growing

economy, there's been renewed focus on the government's attempts

to boost investment and that push could be paying off.

The IMF has just confirmed its optimistic outlook for India,

despite much gloomier predictions for the world economy.

Here's Finance minister Arun Jaitley.

I don't think in a globally adverse situation that exists today, double

Countries can reach their target when the

global tail winds are all supportive, but when they are

But even within the present limitation of the world economy

growing slowly, volatility being there

and unpredictability being there

and commodity prices being low, I think if

we have a good monsoon and

if we are able to address several domestic reforms including

strengthening the Indian banking system which is what we are trying

to do, for us to grow over the 7.5% that we have reached is reasonably

We asked you to get in touch with regards to the story in or out of

Europe. Peter says the countries need closer union. Big question

there. Lisa says, "George Osborne sounds like he is threatening the UK

instead of offering balanced and honest information." Keep your

comments coming in. The Wall Street Journal reports that

Verizon's pursuit of Yahoo has received a boost as several

prominent suitors opted not to make Business Insider meanwhile claims

that Britain's house prices are going to soar

because there's too little housing The Telegraph looks at a study

which says that increasing regulatory interference means

competition problems are now considered to be the biggest threat

for global mergers and acquisitions. Joining us again is Simon Derrick,

Chief Markets Strategist, Where do you want to start Simon?

Shall we start with Yahoo? Go on. The lack of suitors for Yahoo, it

was only a week ago, we were talking about The Daily Mail and here we are

struggling to find buyers. It is a measure of the pace of change in

technology, it is only 10 or 15 years ago when Yahoo was the bright

and shining light. Here we are, it is nowhere and struggling to find a

buyer. Interesting time life. I seem to remember they were tied up with

one of the greatest sensations of the dotcom boom which was buying

AOL. Yahoo's results are out later this week and the deadline for bids

for Yahoo was timed before the earnings came out. Watch this space.

Let's talk about housing. This is something that surprises me. The

house price surge in the UK will get worse because builders are running

ot of land. If you get a train between any city in the UK, you see

how much spare land there, yes, some of it is green belt and some of it

is protected, but we are not short of land in the UK? You have got to

remember 60 million people in this country. Compare that to France

which is not a huge amount of difference in terms of population,

twice the land area that we have. Actually relatively speaking

compared to a lot of Continental Europe, we are a crowded nation.

Throw into this the fact that we are going to have interest rates going

nowhere fast in the UK for a long period of time, people are going to

still be looking to property as they always do in the UK as a hard asset.

I think it means further upward pressure on house prices. And upward

in terms of building. We might see more high rise rather than low rise?

That's true in London. That's been the ski story for a while. Simon.

Thank you for being with us today. That's it from us on the team. We

will see you same time, same place tomorrow. Have a great day. Bye-bye.