10/06/2016 BBC Business Live


10/06/2016

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Do you have the skills needed to compete with automation

:00:08.:00:09.

Most of us think we do, but there's a good chance we're wrong.

:00:10.:00:13.

Live from London, that's our top story on Friday the 10th June.

:00:14.:00:31.

The robots are coming and we don't want to admit

:00:32.:00:34.

That's just one of the findings from a report out today into how

:00:35.:00:39.

we view our skills and those of our colleagues.

:00:40.:00:41.

Also in the programme - Nigeria's Naira nightmare.

:00:42.:00:44.

Africa's biggest economy faces its worst crisis in decades,

:00:45.:00:47.

as airlines pull out and foreign currency runs low.

:00:48.:00:52.

And bond yields fall across the globe.

:00:53.:00:57.

Surging investor demand sends 15-year Japanese yields below

:00:58.:01:00.

And we'll be getting the inside track on some of biggest

:01:01.:01:07.

stories that have been moving the markets this

:01:08.:01:09.

very low US jobs numbers which have, once again, the markets guessing

:01:10.:01:15.

about when the world's biggest economy will raise

:01:16.:01:18.

And we're also looking at Lenovo's new smartphone -

:01:19.:01:24.

apparently clever enough to grasp your physical surroundings

:01:25.:01:26.

So today we want to know what you think.

:01:27.:01:31.

If your phone could do one thing it doesn't do now,

:01:32.:01:34.

How many of the following statements do you agree with?

:01:35.:01:54.

There's no such thing as a job for life.

:01:55.:01:59.

You're overqualified for the job you're in.

:02:00.:02:02.

And you worry that robots might replace you in the office one day.

:02:03.:02:05.

If they all sound familiar, you're not alone.

:02:06.:02:07.

Let me take you through the findings of a study by City and Guilds.

:02:08.:02:11.

Over half of all respondents from the UK, US,

:02:12.:02:13.

India and South Africa believe they are overqualified

:02:14.:02:16.

there is no such thing as a job for life.

:02:17.:02:24.

Interestingly, 70% of CEOs and senior leaders

:02:25.:02:28.

across all countries agreed that automation and artificial

:02:29.:02:31.

intelligence could replace a number of jobs in their organisation

:02:32.:02:35.

Compare that to the people who work for them.

:02:36.:02:42.

Just 53% of general employees believe a significant number

:02:43.:02:44.

The debate about whether machines will eliminate the need for human

:02:45.:02:51.

employment is no longer just academic, of course.

:02:52.:02:54.

One study says that by 2025, up to a quarter of jobs

:02:55.:02:58.

will be replaced by either smart software or robots.

:02:59.:03:06.

Micky Dragoo is a skills ambassador and Director at City Guilds.

:03:07.:03:13.

Great to have you in the studio. Fascinating stuff, and one thing

:03:14.:03:19.

that Victoria was just reading out that really stood out to me was the

:03:20.:03:22.

difference in the thinking, the perception of robots, so the bosses

:03:23.:03:28.

think... More bosses think, some of these jobs, our workers can be

:03:29.:03:33.

replaced by robots, where as workers are going, "No, they can't". The

:03:34.:03:38.

awareness among senior leaders and bosses is much higher about what

:03:39.:03:40.

these trends might mean for the future of work and where I think

:03:41.:03:45.

normal Google at their desks are thinking, "I don't really know how

:03:46.:03:49.

this is going to affect me,"... It is fascinating. I've forgotten the

:03:50.:03:55.

number but the majority are thinking they are over skilled for the job.

:03:56.:03:59.

Is that just a human instinct? We think we are better really. People

:04:00.:04:06.

are quite poor at judging their own efficiency levels and how well they

:04:07.:04:10.

do their own jobs, so I think it is quite a human thing and one of the

:04:11.:04:14.

interesting things we saw is that the more senior you are, the more

:04:15.:04:16.

likely you are to be confident in your skills. And across the entire

:04:17.:04:22.

report, 95 per cent of people were confident in their skills, which was

:04:23.:04:26.

a big surprise to us? We often talk about the skills gap in business. It

:04:27.:04:32.

is a challenge for recruiters. But I wonder if we have the leadership

:04:33.:04:37.

skills we need to deal with these major trends, organisation,

:04:38.:04:41.

globalisation, because a lot of people don't have that much faith in

:04:42.:04:45.

their own bosses. The survey respondents agree with you. That was

:04:46.:04:49.

one of the top areas across the markets we looked at, saying that

:04:50.:04:53.

management skills is where we see a gap and the general employees were

:04:54.:04:56.

more likely to see a leadership Gap than the bosses. The study was in

:04:57.:05:05.

four countries. And a group of economies, the UK, the US, India,

:05:06.:05:11.

South Africa. So very eclectic economies. One thing that is

:05:12.:05:15.

interesting is that we are all the same. The findings didn't

:05:16.:05:17.

differentiate that much. Which we went expecting. We purposely chose

:05:18.:05:23.

those countries because they are so different in their economies, their

:05:24.:05:28.

demographics, but, actually, across-the-board, are pretty similar

:05:29.:05:31.

feeling about how people see their rates skills and the skills of their

:05:32.:05:35.

organisations, as being OK for the future. They're not consented top

:05:36.:05:39.

Short and sweet, we have to leave it there. Do you think robots could do

:05:40.:05:49.

this job? Never! I can tell you some producers who could easily be

:05:50.:05:52.

replaced by robots! Micky Dragoo, thank you. Have a great weekend.

:05:53.:05:59.

Africa's largest economy is facing its worst crisis in decades.

:06:00.:06:02.

The price of oil - which is how the country

:06:03.:06:04.

makes most of its money - is less than half what

:06:05.:06:07.

As a result, growth is at a standstill,

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and there's a shortage of foreign currency.

:06:11.:06:12.

Now, two major airlines - United and Iberia -

:06:13.:06:16.

have said they will no longer fly to the country because of a lack

:06:17.:06:19.

of demand and trouble collecting payments.

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Earlier, I spoke to Anna Rosenberg from the Frontier Strategy Group.

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She explained how serious this lack of foreign currency is for Nigeria.

:06:27.:06:34.

You have a massive problem would the inflation rate now because prices

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are going up for pretty much everything. Simple things like

:06:41.:06:46.

tomatoes, a 100 increase. Is that one of the reasons why Nigeria's

:06:47.:06:50.

government is reluctant to put its currency, floated, let it reflect

:06:51.:06:59.

reality? Angolan, another exporter of oil, did that. Is Nigeria

:07:00.:07:03.

reluctant because if it devalues it, things just go up? That's one of the

:07:04.:07:11.

reasons. The fear of hyperinflation. There is a lot of political fear,

:07:12.:07:15.

too, because the president, who had a brief stint in power in the 80s,

:07:16.:07:19.

witnessed a period of massive currency depreciation men and that

:07:20.:07:23.

was supposed to feel local industrialisation but didn't and

:07:24.:07:26.

cause massive price increases and a major economic crisis. So he's kind

:07:27.:07:32.

of reluctant to contribute to a new depreciation of the economy but

:07:33.:07:35.

quite frankly, at this point, it is a necessity. A quick look at some of

:07:36.:07:38.

the other news. The downturn in the UK oil and gas

:07:39.:07:40.

sector could could have cost more than 120,000 jobs by the end of this

:07:41.:07:43.

year, according to a report. Oil Gas UK says 84,000 jobs linked

:07:44.:07:47.

to the industry went in 2015, with 40,000 losses

:07:48.:07:50.

expected this year. Many companies have been struggling

:07:51.:07:52.

with the slump in the price of oil - Tesco has announced it is to sell

:07:53.:08:11.

its Giraffe restaurant chain for an undisclosed sum. It comes just three

:08:12.:08:15.

years after Tesco bought the restaurant chain for 49 million

:08:16.:08:21.

quid. The sale includes 50. The lone restaurants and three that sit

:08:22.:08:25.

inside Tesco Stores hit the supermarket has also disposed of its

:08:26.:08:30.

95 present stake in a Turkish grocery business to a local rival.

:08:31.:08:37.

-- 95%. India has rejected Google's plans to

:08:38.:08:40.

collect images of its Street view service. In something of a real

:08:41.:08:45.

objection to the security agencies in that country. Officials are

:08:46.:08:50.

concerned that the scheme would compromise the country's security.

:08:51.:08:54.

Google collect high-definition images to give users 360 degrees

:08:55.:08:56.

views of streets, hills and rivers. Euro... You have to live on another

:08:57.:09:11.

planet... It's a very early start for me, I can't control myself. You

:09:12.:09:16.

have to be another planet not to overcome a great euros kick-off in a

:09:17.:09:20.

few hours. We are going to talk about it later in the programme but

:09:21.:09:24.

interesting, the sponsorship, this year several companies paid to be

:09:25.:09:30.

part of the official sponsorship. It is up pathetic is that compared to

:09:31.:09:35.

the last one but some new friends. You've heard of Carlsberg, right?

:09:36.:09:39.

We've all heard of Carlsberg, Nikkei, but what about a Chinese

:09:40.:09:47.

tech company? And the Azerbaijan state oil company. Go figure.

:09:48.:09:50.

New football fans. Let's take a look at

:09:51.:09:53.

the stories breaking in Asia. A popular Japanese

:09:54.:10:00.

mobile-messaging service, Line, has just received approval to float

:10:01.:10:02.

on the Tokyo stock exchange. Have you ever heard of Line?

:10:03.:10:06.

No. The company will also list shares

:10:07.:10:13.

in New York and could be one of the biggest

:10:14.:10:16.

floatations of the year. Mariko Oi has been

:10:17.:10:17.

following the story. We have not heard of Line. Tell us a

:10:18.:10:24.

bit more about that. And it is a dual listing? That's right, and I

:10:25.:10:29.

think that's precisely why the company wants to list its shares,

:10:30.:10:33.

because it's got about 200 million active monthly users, very popular

:10:34.:10:37.

in Japan, but it isn't really well-known in the US, in Europe, so

:10:38.:10:43.

in addition to raising about $1 billion through a dual listing in

:10:44.:10:48.

Tokyo and in New York on the 15th of July, the company hopes to raise its

:10:49.:10:52.

profile as well. It is a relatively new company, been around rebel five

:10:53.:10:56.

years, and very popular among young Japanese people but it gained

:10:57.:11:02.

popularity after the earthquake in 2011 when all the phone services

:11:03.:11:05.

were down and people found it very useful to be able to send messages

:11:06.:11:10.

to each other for free but still with 200 million active users, it is

:11:11.:11:13.

way behind companies like WhatsApp or Facebook messenger, so it really

:11:14.:11:19.

hopes to raise its profile with this listing. Fascinating. Thanks very

:11:20.:11:20.

much. It was a very weak

:11:21.:11:22.

session over in Asia. China and Taiwan are

:11:23.:11:25.

still on holiday. But for the rest of the continent,

:11:26.:11:26.

it has been the weakest day The big market story is not

:11:27.:11:29.

in equities, it's in bond markets - more on that coming up in a moment

:11:30.:11:34.

with David Buik. But first let's check in with where

:11:35.:11:37.

the European session is headed. There seems to be reduced appetite

:11:38.:11:40.

to take risk in the market. The fall in oil is also putting some

:11:41.:11:43.

downward pressure on energy stocks. Now, let's hear from Samira Hussain,

:11:44.:11:47.

who has the details about what's Happening on Friday,

:11:48.:11:50.

an early look at consumer sentiment This tells us how confident people

:11:51.:11:55.

are feeling about the US economy. This is a number also closely

:11:56.:12:02.

watched by the Federal Reserve, The expectation is that consumer

:12:03.:12:04.

sentiment will have gone up from the month of June,

:12:05.:12:11.

as Americans are seeing big But, last month's dismal jobs report

:12:12.:12:13.

tempered some earlier optimism Americans were seeing

:12:14.:12:19.

in the labour market. And as for the Federal Reserve,

:12:20.:12:24.

they will be looking at consumer sentiment but no one is expecting

:12:25.:12:27.

to see a rise in interest rates Joining us is David Buik

:12:28.:12:31.

from Panmure Gordon. Good to see you, happy Friday. Happy

:12:32.:12:52.

Friday to you. You are very keen on this and it is a big story. You

:12:53.:12:56.

found this. There is a lot of turmoil going on

:12:57.:13:01.

in the bombard it is, a lot of investor demand. People are putting

:13:02.:13:04.

a lot of money into the bond markets and it has pushed the yields down on

:13:05.:13:08.

a lot of government debt. So it means that the Japanese yields on

:13:09.:13:14.

the 15 year debt has gone negative for the first time. This is a tweak

:13:15.:13:22.

that we thought was interesting. He said global yields lowest in

:13:23.:13:28.

history. He said there was negative rate bonds. He says it is a

:13:29.:13:33.

supernova that will one day explode. How concerned should we be about the

:13:34.:13:36.

fear that is going on in the bond markets? Today or next week, next

:13:37.:13:42.

year, no, but in the next five years, yes. The problem is, and you

:13:43.:13:47.

mentioned it very sick sinker, we mustn't forget - and I have to use

:13:48.:13:52.

the word damage - because it is damaged. The world is in such a

:13:53.:13:58.

parlous state -- was in such a parlous state in 2008-9, most of the

:13:59.:14:03.

world Banks were forced to what interest rates out. You've got an

:14:04.:14:06.

equity market that perhaps in a way is beginning to look fully valued.

:14:07.:14:10.

The world's growth seems to be coming down right across the

:14:11.:14:15.

spectrum. But if you take your money out of equities, many people have

:14:16.:14:20.

got massive capital gains to pay and also, you're surrendering a pretty

:14:21.:14:22.

decent dividend, which could be anything between 2% and a big

:14:23.:14:28.

company like mm shell, where you're getting seven percentage you have to

:14:29.:14:32.

think carefully. There has also been a huge, what I would call

:14:33.:14:37.

apocalyptic, hysteria about Brexit and the threats to the bond market

:14:38.:14:41.

to talk this is only a tiny element of it and the fact of the matter is

:14:42.:14:44.

that if there was a real fear, we would see bond yields, particularly

:14:45.:14:57.

in ten years Gill yields, lower. You mentioned Brexit and for our

:14:58.:15:00.

worldview was a uninitiated, we're talking about the UK referendum to

:15:01.:15:05.

stay or leave the EU to dock it certainly had an impact on the

:15:06.:15:10.

British pound so far. It would be wrong of me to deny that. Guitars.

:15:11.:15:15.

But we've also had some hysteria from the politicians and the

:15:16.:15:19.

regulators. The regulators, particularly the Bank of England, is

:15:20.:15:22.

obliged and has a duty of care to tell us exactly what they think the

:15:23.:15:25.

damage could be but it has been embellished rather more than it

:15:26.:15:29.

should. Since November of last year, and I would say there was an awful

:15:30.:15:34.

and at this, that the UK economy, which was at 2.4% last year GDP, we

:15:35.:15:39.

could end up this year at 1%, so the pound is down nine present in value

:15:40.:15:43.

since then. So if you asked me, if there was a Brexit, where is the

:15:44.:15:47.

pound going to fall? I would say to you that I don't know but at the

:15:48.:15:52.

best gets I would say 10%. -- best guess. It will ease our borrowing

:15:53.:15:57.

requirements. If you are worried about the pound, the two of you, and

:15:58.:16:01.

ensure you're not, how about the euro? In about six months, that

:16:02.:16:07.

group of countries politically seems unstable to me and also the debt

:16:08.:16:08.

mountain is colossal. I am only interested in the pie

:16:09.:16:21.

because I want to go on holiday. Are you going to come back and take us

:16:22.:16:25.

through the papers. Is the world economy in worse shape

:16:26.:16:29.

than we first thought? This week the US posted some

:16:30.:16:31.

of its worst job numbers in recent years and the head

:16:32.:16:33.

of the World Trade Organisation warned of slowing global

:16:34.:16:35.

growth for years to come. We're going to be asking our

:16:36.:16:37.

economics correspondent if it's now You're with Business

:16:38.:16:39.

Live from BBC News. In case you hadn't noticed,

:16:40.:16:44.

the Euro 2016 football And what better topic to kick-start

:16:45.:16:46.

the event than pubs? The brewers Fuller, Smith

:16:47.:16:51.

and Turner, or Fullers, has just The company has 400 managed

:16:52.:16:54.

and tenanted pubs across London and the south of England

:16:55.:17:03.

and exports to 68 countries. And we are joined by

:17:04.:17:08.

the company CEO, Simon Emeny, Bees seemed to be good figures, but

:17:09.:17:20.

let's look ahead, how much of a boost you expecting from these

:17:21.:17:26.

euros? It has been another excellent year for the company. You ask about

:17:27.:17:32.

the euros. Like every sports fan and teams approach these tournaments

:17:33.:17:38.

with great optimism. We have four home nations this year, so we are

:17:39.:17:42.

very excited. We think tomorrow will be a very busy day. Is there some

:17:43.:17:48.

numbers you can give? Some will say it can be triple the boost, just

:17:49.:17:53.

over the month of the tournament. Trying to work out how much more

:17:54.:17:59.

business will you generate? It is difficult to put a number on. During

:18:00.:18:05.

the last financial year we had the Rugby World Cup, which England did

:18:06.:18:10.

not do particularly well in. But it was busiest month of the year for

:18:11.:18:14.

London pride sales across the business. If England do well in the

:18:15.:18:20.

tournament it will have a big impact on the amount of year consumed in

:18:21.:18:26.

our pubs. You employ a lot of young people across your pubs, what impact

:18:27.:18:30.

has the national living wage will have, will there be any closures? We

:18:31.:18:36.

took the decision to pay the national living wage to our staff

:18:37.:18:40.

early, irrespective of their age if they are on a development programme.

:18:41.:18:48.

That is where it will have an impact on our business, weekly or

:18:49.:18:51.

increasing investment in training and we want young people to join as

:18:52.:18:55.

a career. Fresh food is important and we want people to join us,

:18:56.:18:59.

develop their careers with us and add fans through the company. Simon,

:19:00.:19:07.

thank you for your time. Pubs have extended their opening times for the

:19:08.:19:14.

90th birthday of the Queen. Check it out on our website.

:19:15.:19:26.

Our top stories. We are surrounded by robotic cameras in this studio,

:19:27.:19:43.

so we know what it feels like. Let's move on.

:19:44.:19:51.

And now let's get the inside track on the economic week

:19:52.:19:54.

with our correspondent, Andrew Walker.

:19:55.:19:56.

The last week has seen continued speculation about the Fed,

:19:57.:19:59.

She has described those figures as concerning. A couple of months that

:20:00.:20:15.

were disappointing, people with jobs, 80,000 in the US, it really

:20:16.:20:20.

needs 120,000 to keep up with the growing population. It is striking

:20:21.:20:26.

what it has done to an expectation of an interest rate rise. Bloomberg

:20:27.:20:33.

's have put together the possibility of an interest rise in a meeting

:20:34.:20:39.

last week. The figure was 22%, so probably not. Now the figure is zero

:20:40.:20:47.

for this month. You have to get up to December before you get to the

:20:48.:20:52.

probability of more than 50%. We probably are, on that race is going

:20:53.:20:57.

to get an interest rate rise this year, but just the one and late. The

:20:58.:21:08.

director-general of the World Trade Organisation said red Britain would

:21:09.:21:12.

not have the same leveraged if they leave the EU, Brexit. He takes the

:21:13.:21:19.

view that the trade position would be this set with uncertainty. He

:21:20.:21:24.

cannot tell us what agreements the rest of the members say. He said,

:21:25.:21:29.

nobody has a crystal ball. The response to that from Leave campaign

:21:30.:21:37.

is said they would have negotiating measures of trade with the rest of

:21:38.:21:42.

the global trading world and the EU, because we are a large market,

:21:43.:21:46.

relatively prosperous and growing reasonably well, faster than the

:21:47.:21:52.

Eurozone. His view was, yes we would have some leveraged, but a lot less

:21:53.:21:58.

than the EU has collectively had during the course of the

:21:59.:22:00.

negotiations that led to the arrangements it has with the World

:22:01.:22:06.

Trade Organisation. He said we cannot assume that Great Britain

:22:07.:22:10.

outside the EU would have the same arrangements. In some areas,

:22:11.:22:14.

particularly agriculture, we would have two subsidise something new.

:22:15.:22:24.

That is an area that would have to be negotiated. Andrew, we have to

:22:25.:22:29.

leave it there, have a great weekend.

:22:30.:22:34.

Let's talk tech now, because Lenovo has announced

:22:35.:22:36.

two new smartphones, including a handset

:22:37.:22:37.

Our North America tech correspondent Dave Lee was at Lenovo's developer

:22:38.:22:43.

conference in San Francisco, where he spoke to one of its top

:22:44.:22:46.

The challenge was, in fact I'll show you with the phone here,

:22:47.:22:52.

is that you had to make it thin enough.

:22:53.:22:59.

Because if you have to snap a module on the back,

:23:00.:23:02.

you don't want the product to become too fat, too thick or too heavy.

:23:03.:23:06.

So the challenge was to pack a lot of the feature and function in 5.2

:23:07.:23:09.

millimetres thickness, keep it light and have no

:23:10.:23:11.

Some people might see this phone and wonder how much

:23:12.:23:17.

it is going to cost them if you have to buy the phone and then buy

:23:18.:23:21.

What is the price they are looking at?

:23:22.:23:24.

The price will range between $50 to $200 and $250,

:23:25.:23:26.

depending on what it is that you have as the functionality.

:23:27.:23:29.

Whether it is the camera, a projector or just

:23:30.:23:31.

David is back, let's get cracking into the papers. This Lenovo. By the

:23:32.:23:48.

time this interview is finished, because you will wish you had not

:23:49.:23:56.

invited me here. I am from the planet Zong, I can photograph, I can

:23:57.:24:03.

message, that is about it. Do you think George Orwell would like this,

:24:04.:24:07.

big brother. It is getting intrusive. To find out who is in the

:24:08.:24:16.

room with you, what is going on in the room next door. I was reading an

:24:17.:24:25.

article yesterday about an act, -- at, I can take a picture and then it

:24:26.:24:33.

will find the clothing, order it in my size. You are kidding me? That is

:24:34.:24:39.

really amazing. This is just technology developing and

:24:40.:24:45.

developing. It is extraordinary. I hope we get to the level it doesn't

:24:46.:24:50.

become too intrusive. Let's talk about this story in the Financial

:24:51.:24:54.

Times and Venezuela and the crisis going on in Nigeria. There is a

:24:55.:25:01.

crisis in Venezuela as well. The country is paying its debts to

:25:02.:25:06.

foreign creditors despite many ordinary Venezuelans not having any

:25:07.:25:11.

power and they have lost their jobs. It is astonishing when you think

:25:12.:25:18.

where Venezuela was in desperate disrepair. Oil was $100 a barrel,

:25:19.:25:27.

went down to 27 and now it is back up to 50. Their whole economy is

:25:28.:25:34.

based on oil and it must be an horrendous place to live. But they

:25:35.:25:38.

do understand the international bond markets and you have to pay

:25:39.:25:42.

interest. But what is interesting now between now and the end of the

:25:43.:25:47.

year, whether a haircut has to be discussed between creditors.

:25:48.:25:49.

Wouldn't want to be in Argentina. Have a great weekend, David.

:25:50.:25:54.

There will be more business news throughout the day on the BBC Live

:25:55.:25:59.

webpage and on World Business Report.

:26:00.:26:04.

Good morning, what a week it has been. We have had some heavy

:26:05.:26:10.

downpours and thunderstorms. What does today

:26:11.:26:11.

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