01/07/2016 BBC Business Live


01/07/2016

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This is Business Live with Victoria Fritz and Sally Bundock.

:00:00.:00:08.

Just a week on from that vote to leave the European Union, Paris,

:00:09.:00:12.

Frankfurt and Dublin look to lure financial firms away from London,

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as lobbyists from the UK's financial engine scramble to steady the ship.

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Live from London, that's our top story on Friday, 1 July.

:00:22.:00:45.

The Brexit balls keep on moving. Global stocks rise again as the Bank

:00:46.:00:50.

of England hints more stimulus measures.

:00:51.:00:51.

The electric car made by Tesla is investigated after a fatal crash.

:00:52.:01:04.

And the latest from the markets. You can see them rising yet again after

:01:05.:01:05.

those promises made by Mark Carney. And we hear from the chief executive

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of Royal Dutch Shell. He says he is eager for the UK to

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retain access to the single market. Plus, one week on from Brexit, what

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are your questions about this historic decision? Kamal Ahmed will

:01:24.:01:27.

be here to answer them for you. Just send them in.

:01:28.:01:34.

The UK's decision to leave the EU could potentially have a huge impact

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on the City of London, which is Europe's biggest

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Almost 415,000 people work in the City.

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An additional 150,000 jobs are in nearby Canary Wharf,

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where many big international banks are based.

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France's President Francois Hollande has warned that leaving the EU means

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London would need to give up its role in processing euro

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currency transactions, worth hundreds of billions of euros.

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Euro clearing services would likely move to Paris and Frankfurt.

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And if Britain ends up outside Europe's single market,

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UK-based banks could also lose their so-called

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passporting rights, which let them sell financial

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If this happens, London banks would then need to move

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staff into the eurozone to serve customers there.

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Our economics editor, Kamal Ahmed, joins us now.

:02:39.:02:46.

Almost immediately after we heard about this decision, we were hearing

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rumours about banks relocating people. Any bank, whether it is

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based in the UK, the US or Asia, has something in London. What does this

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mean? At the moment we can't be very clear about what the relationship

:03:08.:03:11.

will be between the UK and the European Union in terms of trade

:03:12.:03:14.

relationships. Nothing has actually changed. A number of banks, JP

:03:15.:03:20.

Morgan HSBC, have said they may need to move some operations into the

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euro error -- area, if Britain gets no kind of single market agreement.

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London is an incredibly powerful global market. And it is a

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competitor to Singapore, Hong Kong and New York. It is much larger than

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Frankfurt or Paris. This is all about markets. It is about where

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businesses in Europe and in the UK can find the cheapest capital. They

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want markets which are the deepest and the most functioning. There was

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a movement in the 1990s to move some transactions work to Frankfurt. It

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all moved back to London because in London there are far more

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counterparties. You can borrow more cheaply in London because there is a

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deeper market. Anyone who has been to Paris or Frankfurt will no that

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in size terms they are tiny compared to London. Although there is

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nervousness and concern, London's size at the moment is much more

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advantageous than maybe some of the reporting suggests. Also, there is a

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very strange and perhaps double-edged sword in terms of

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bankers bonuses. The British government lobbied unsuccessfully to

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get rid of the EU bonus capped. If Britain was to leave the EU, it

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could scrap that world altogether and presumably money talks, people

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will stay if they think they will be paid more? Absolutely right. Money

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and location talk. It plays -- London attracts talent from around

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million people live in the British million people live in the British

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capital. If you look at things like the bonus tax, the other issue was

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the financial transactions tax, seen as something that would not be good

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for London. I don't want to say there are no risks. But there are

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many people who argue, particularly the speak to banking executives

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privately, we say that London's sheer size will maintain its

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position in the short to medium term. Obviously over the longer

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term, because this is a service industry based on people and talent,

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they can move easily. It is not like you were moving a steel factory from

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London to France. You are moving people. And if they can move

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quickly, once things start changing, they can change rapidly. Apparently

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on Monday we are guiding you something about the London stock

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exchange. A merger. Any thoughts on what they might say next week? Yes,

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the German regulator has made it clear that given the vote last week

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on Britain leaving the European Union, it is more uncomfortable

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about this new merged entity being headquartered in London. There will

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be an issue if this deal goes through and the shareholder revolts

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are imminent, if this deal goes through there is a greater chance of

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headquarters being in Frankfurt rather than London. That would raise

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some issues about this being a takeover rather than a merger. There

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are some big issues which will be made more confusing and more

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difficult because of the referendum result. Like we need more confusion!

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Kamal will return in about ten minutes. Send us your questions

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about Brexit. I am sure you have many. He will try to tackle them for

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you. Authorities in the US

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are investigating the death of a man who was using the autopilot feature

:06:50.:06:51.

in a Tesla electric car. The 45-year-old died in a crash

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in Florida in May, when the system, which automatically switches lanes,

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failed to spot a lorry. The company said the crash

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was "a terrible loss". The European Union's top trade

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official, Cecilia Malmstrom, says the UK cannot begin negotiating

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terms for doing business with the bloc until after

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it has left the EU. After Britain leaves,

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she said trade would be carried out based on World Trade Organisation

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rules until a new deal was complete. US chocolate giant Hershey has

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rejected a $23 billion takeover the owner of brands including

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Cadburys and Oreos. The deal would have

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created the world's top confectionery company,

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overtaking the current leader Mars. But Hershey's controlling

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shareholder - a charitable trust created by the founder in 1894 -

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said the board had unanimously rejected the offer and decided there

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was no basis for further discussion. There is more detail on the website

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about that story. It was a Newsnight interview with Cecila miles from,

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where she talked about this situation with regards to win the UK

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can begin to negotiate its terms of leaving the European Union. If you

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want to read more detail, it is a very interesting article. This is at

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odds with many of the other opinions out there that we can start

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negotiating when we hit the Article 50 button. This is saying there are

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two negotiations that need to take place. The first is how we lead and

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after that, under EU rules, it is only then that we will be able to

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negotiate any kind of trade deal. Very interesting. One wonders if the

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rule book will apply in the next couple of years. It will keep us

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busy. Japan loses ownership of one

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of its most well-known electronics brands today, when Taiwan's Foxconn

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officially takes over The move may see as many

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as 7000 job losses. Mariko Oi is in Singapore

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for us this morning. How does Japan feel about losing

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ownership of one of its most iconic brands? We have been talking about

:09:06.:09:13.

this $3.5 billion deal for several months, several years, in fact. I

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bet my entire monthly salary this would not go ahead because the

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country's technological sector has been known to be very insular and

:09:24.:09:27.

never accepting takeover offers from a foreign company. Sharp is

:09:28.:09:34.

definitely the first. Earlier in the week I spoke to some shoppers in

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Tokyo. Some of them said they were sentimental. Others expressed

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concerns because it is Fox con, which is owned by Taiwan, and China.

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China has often been accused of copying other people's technology.

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Job cuts maybe around the corner. There is speculation about whether

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that will happen, even though the fox con management promised they

:10:03.:10:05.

would try to protect as many jobs as possible. Thank you very much.

:10:06.:10:10.

A quick look at the markets. Many of the main industries raised the Foals

:10:11.:10:20.

sparked by last week's decision by Britain to leave the EU. On the

:10:21.:10:29.

European markets, they are pushing hard for a second day. Shares are

:10:30.:10:33.

very much basking in the prospect of more stimulus to ward off a Brexit

:10:34.:10:38.

induced economic slowdown. Samir Rojo sene is in New York.

:10:39.:10:46.

On Friday, Puerto Rico faces a potential default on a chunk of its

:10:47.:10:50.

debt. If it cannot make $1.9 billion worth of payments. Congress has

:10:51.:10:53.

approved a relief plan to help were to Rico address 70 billion of that

:10:54.:10:59.

debt. The Puerto Rico government has said the island will still default

:11:00.:11:07.

on some of what they owe. US numbers are out today and are expected to

:11:08.:11:13.

have risen by 5%. 2015 was a record high for car sales. While this year

:11:14.:11:17.

sales numbers are quite strong, it looks unlikely they will be able to

:11:18.:11:21.

break another record. In fact, some analysts believe the peak of sales

:11:22.:11:25.

in the automobile industry has passed. And finally, US

:11:26.:11:29.

manufacturing numbers out today suggest economists are not expecting

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much left for the month of June. Struggling overseas economies and

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limited business investment are to blame.

:11:39.:11:40.

Joining us now is Lawrence Gosling, editor-in-chief of Investment Week.

:11:41.:11:48.

Samir are talking about the data coming out of the US. She talked

:11:49.:11:56.

about manufacturers and the difficulties they are facing. A

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strong dollar is not helping, is it? Not at all. We have seen huge swings

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in currencies in the past week. The dollar is the safe haven currency

:12:06.:12:10.

for global investors. The US economy is pretty strong. Strong dollar not

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great for US manufacturers. I would imagine that is on Janet Yellen 's's

:12:16.:12:20.

might? A little bit. Central banks do not have a huge the Power to

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manipulate currency. We heard some of that from Mark Carney yesterday.

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I was at the Bank of England yesterday and we saw a massive rise

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in the value of the Footsie within the first ten minutes of him

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speaking. Doesn't this Telus and all full lot about low interest rates?

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Obviously the dangers and the uncertainty have not really gone

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away, particularly on the fiscal side, yet everybody is now ploughing

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back into equities? Yes, the symbol at -- the simple economics have not

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changed. The UK economy is OK but it is a little fragile, as the bank of

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England has said. The one obvious to they have is a cut in interest

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rates. It is interesting as to whether they do it on the 14th of

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July, or they hold off during the summer. The summer is notoriously

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difficult to judge from an economic perspective. A lot of it is driven

:13:16.:13:21.

by the weather. It is called the silly season. A hot summer is good

:13:22.:13:27.

for consumer spending. It has been soggy so far. Things like that they

:13:28.:13:31.

do actually look at. They will not press the button because there is a

:13:32.:13:34.

little bit more rain than perhaps was forecast. We will see you later.

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The BBC has been speaking to the boss of the oil giant Shell. And

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some of his fears about Britain use -- losing access to the single

:13:50.:13:50.

market. You're with Business

:13:51.:13:50.

Live from the UK. Now, can Britain plough

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its own furrow, or is there UK farmers will meet today

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to discuss the post-Brexit future. Meurig Raymond is President

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of the National Farmers Union. The NFU hazard -- advised its

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members to remain before the referendum. Farmers were pretty

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divided. Many voted Leave. Of course, this is a huge issue. I

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wonder where you even begin to start with this today? Good morning.

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Obviously food and farming is so important to the nation. You produce

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the food for people to it, the ingredients for the food and drinks

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sector. The NFU Council, the governing body of the National

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Farmers' Union, will meet today to look at priorities, to look at

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options. Following on from the meeting, we will go out to

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consultation with our 50,000 members across England and Wales, to put

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together a domestic agricultural policy that will be fit for purpose

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for UK farming. We want this opportunity to give us the ability

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to compete, to be profitable and increase our productivity for the

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future. The EU subsidies represent more than half the income of UK

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farms. Each farm gets more than ?70,000 per year from Brussels. Will

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you ask the UK government for the equivalent? Let's go through the

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consultation today with our members. That is so important. Following on

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from that, all I would say is that we must not be disadvantaged from

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our European competitors, from other competitors around the world,

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because if our competitors are receiving support from their

:15:44.:15:46.

government, it is so important that we have equal support, otherwise we

:15:47.:15:52.

will become uncompetitive and find it difficult to expand our

:15:53.:15:55.

production. All the surveys we have done a the NFU with the British

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people highlight that the British people want to see more British food

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on their plates. We need that competitive and innovative,

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productive sector to drive British agriculture fought. -- forward.

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In an very important subject for both UK and European farmers. More

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details about the challenges they are facing. Look when you have time.

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64% of exports coming from Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin are all

:16:32.:16:50.

looking to lure firms away from London, our capital.

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A quick look at how markets are faring.

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It's the final trading day of the week, and the week has probably gone

:17:00.:17:05.

better than many would have expected. Remember, at the start of

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the week, we saw heavy, heavy losses. Then we went into bounce-

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back mode. We seem to have stayed in that place, thanks to Mark Carney

:17:17.:17:22.

who spoke yesterday afternoon. The FTSE yesterday, closing at a ten

:17:23.:17:26.

month high. We saw sterling fall against the dollar. It's at 100 and

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-- we've seen a link between the

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falling sterling and the rise of the FTSE.

:17:44.:17:45.

Let's stay with Brexit because - like Britain's banks -

:17:46.:17:48.

the bosses of the world's largest oil companies are also trying

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The BBC has been speaking to Ben van Beurden, the chief executive

:17:51.:17:55.

I hope that the relationship that will be defined by the governments

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of the UK and the EU will give us access to the single market.

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Ideally, the free movement of people. Important borough company

:18:11.:18:17.

like us. But at this point in time it would be speculative to see what

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is going to happen. I think nothing will happen. I think we will still

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meet our investment programmes that we have in the UK, we were still

:18:26.:18:32.

recruit people in the UK, supply energy to them. In the short term,

:18:33.:18:38.

there is no change, but how it will play out in the long run.

:18:39.:18:43.

Our economics editor, Kamal Ahmed, is joining us again.

:18:44.:18:49.

Keep your questions coming in. Let's take a question from Kevin. He says

:18:50.:18:57.

what time frame is most likely the British Government to invoke article

:18:58.:19:03.

50? A huge question. Theresa May, who is currently then you run run

:19:04.:19:10.

for the leader of the Conservative Party, and therefore Prime Minister,

:19:11.:19:14.

she isn't in a hurry to spark article 50. We need to be clear on

:19:15.:19:20.

what we want, as Britain, from the EU, before article 50 is sparked. It

:19:21.:19:24.

seems possible that it would be next year. And once it drift into next

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year then it could be longer. There's no immediate article where

:19:32.:19:38.

that will be sparked. What you make of Cecilia Maelstrom's comments to

:19:39.:19:45.

Newsnight? There's a huge difference between the politics of the issue,

:19:46.:19:49.

the legality of the issues and the business issues around it. Legally,

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it may be correct what she said about the sequencing, so that you

:19:55.:19:59.

have to negotiate your exit and then your re-entry. What kind of market

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relationship we will have with the EU. Politically, it would be very,

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very difficult to achieve. This is now up in it -- political issue.

:20:09.:20:14.

Businesses in both Europe and Britain will not want to wait for

:20:15.:20:20.

username to get the definition of what a single market or the style of

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relationship will be between Britain and Europe. We've got some viewers

:20:27.:20:34.

in Africa, John P O, says what were the aid mean between written in

:20:35.:20:40.

Europe? It's an interesting question. In terms of the commitment

:20:41.:20:47.

to send 0.7% of its GDP on international development. It could

:20:48.:20:51.

end it would be up to the new Prime Minister to decide that. In terms of

:20:52.:20:56.

trade, leaving the EU it could be very positive. When we were ejected

:20:57.:21:00.

from the exchange rate mechanism, which was the four word for the

:21:01.:21:10.

single currency, there was rapid increase in sterling. So companies

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could be obliged to look elsewhere for opportunities and emerging

:21:14.:21:18.

economies in Africa, South Africa particularly. Nigeria, Angola,

:21:19.:21:23.

picked, powerful economies. One of the sticking points with -- is what

:21:24.:21:28.

happens with the movement of freedom -- free movement of people? We had

:21:29.:21:34.

this from Shane Dowling, could we not agree that people could get work

:21:35.:21:40.

permits and give no automatic rights for UK benefits system? There's

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tensions around this, not just in Britain, but in other countries,

:21:49.:21:52.

Denmark, France, the Netherlands. I think what you could get to is free

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movement minus. So it's the freedom to work wherever you want in Europe

:22:00.:22:05.

if you have a job. Not the right of every citizen to go to the country

:22:06.:22:10.

and look for work. There could be something around that which were not

:22:11.:22:16.

highly mean that Britain could be in a single markets with the EU without

:22:17.:22:23.

free movement. But in fact free movement minor -- free movement

:22:24.:22:31.

minus. Who came up with a? IDs! This free movement issue isn't just an

:22:32.:22:39.

issue for Britain. Other countries might want to work on changing that

:22:40.:22:46.

central pillar. We thank you for your questions. It's good to get

:22:47.:22:49.

answers to what you are thinking about. Let's get a little bit more

:22:50.:22:57.

about that story from Tesla. The US authorities are investigating the

:22:58.:23:01.

death of a man who is using autopilot in one of their cars. The

:23:02.:23:05.

45-year-old died when the system that changes lanes fail to notice a

:23:06.:23:12.

lorry. We have the details. Tesla is a company considered to be at the

:23:13.:23:16.

cutting edge of card technology, not just in the way it powered vehicles

:23:17.:23:21.

but how it controls them as well. One of the new features is a feature

:23:22.:23:26.

called autopilot, that's the way that the car is automatically able

:23:27.:23:31.

to change lanes, speed up and slow down according to traffic. US

:23:32.:23:36.

investigators are looking at that feature and are wondering if its

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malfunction led to the death of a man using it on one of its roads in

:23:40.:23:45.

May. If the software is found to be at fault there could be a recall and

:23:46.:23:57.

Tesla could be asked to disable the function on the car. Some are asking

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whether this technology is really ready to be used on public roads

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just yet. Lawrence is back to talk to us about some of the stories in

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the business. So many angles on Brexit. Why buyers tempted by the

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weak pound? They'd been sweeping on London according to the Financial

:24:22.:24:25.

Times. They have picked up high quality art. There was a

:24:26.:24:29.

contemporary Art auction which when 20% over the estimated sort of

:24:30.:24:35.

prices. The people who deal in fine wine are reporting huge trade last

:24:36.:24:40.

week and this week. It's an asset that may not go down in value in

:24:41.:24:44.

other assets are all over the place? We've seen huge uplift in the

:24:45.:24:50.

evaluation in the last 10-15 years because it's a great store of value.

:24:51.:24:56.

There's only one Picassos as it said. That how you transport this is

:24:57.:25:00.

going to be very interesting. At the moment, we are a low tax gateway.

:25:01.:25:06.

Presumably if that's changes then there could be markets and more

:25:07.:25:12.

profitable. We have a very low percent, 5%, compared to 20 plenty

:25:13.:25:18.

Germany. In London might not be quite as attractive if we see the

:25:19.:25:21.

effect of Brexit on the tariffs. What about virtual reality

:25:22.:25:32.

technology? There are concerns about headaches and whether it suitable

:25:33.:25:34.

for children, which is obviously a big part of intent to's market. And

:25:35.:25:42.

the elderly! They love some of the consoles, don't they? I don't really

:25:43.:25:49.

want my children spending a lot of time with virtual reality equipment

:25:50.:25:54.

and getting headaches and that sort of thing. That's it from us today.

:25:55.:26:02.

Plenty more on the website. Have a lovely

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