26/09/2016 BBC Business Live

One of the world's leading economists tell us - the BBC -

the biggest threat to the global economy.

Live from London, that's our top story on Monday, 26th September.

Speaking to the BBC, the former International Monetary Fund Chief

economist Ken Rogoff says that a hard landing for the Chinese

Also in the programme...blast off for India!

The world's fastest growing major economy puts eight satellites

This is what the markets have been doing. Last week was not that bad.

And we'll be getting the inside track on electronic

voting - it's being done in a handful of countries -

We'll be speaking to an industry leader later in the programme.

And today, we're also looking at the Easyjet story

about the world's youngest plane captain.

She's just 26, flying with the world's youngest

commercial airline pilot. He's 19 years old.

does the age of your pilot matter to you?

Get in touch using the hashtag #BBCBizLive.

Welcome to the programme.

The former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund

has said that a slowdown in China is the greatest threat

Ken Rogoff said that a calamitous "hard landing" for one of the main

been slowing down faster than official figures suggest.

So what is happening with China's economy?

China's borrowings hit $25.6 trillion at the end of 2015.

This figure includes government, corporate and household

China's debt is now nearly 250% greater than the value

of what it produces every year, or its GDP.

This is due to Beijing's repeated use of cheap credit

This has unleashed a huge, debt-fuelled spending binge.

Ken Rogoff has been speaking to our economics editor, Kamal Ahmed.

There is no question that China has been the engine of global growth.

The US is picking up, but China is picking up and -- slowing down much

more than official figures show. If you want to look at a part of the

world that has a debt problem, look at China. They have been a credit

fuelled growth. These things don't go on forever.

Everyone says China is different, the state owns everything and they

can control it - only to a point. I definitely worried about a hard

landing for China. We are having a sharp already, and I worry about

China becoming more of a problem. We have taken it for granted that

whatever Europe and Japan are doing, at least China is moving along.

There wasn't really a substitute for China. India may come a someday.

They are doing better, but it has fallen behind sofa in size that it

would not compensate. That is the area of the world I worry about

most. What would mitigate the risk of a Chinese hard landing? What

should China and the rest of the global economy do? That is a tough

question. Ideally, you would like to regenerate growth and be more on

your feet when this happens so that when China starts slowing down,

Europe is doing better. The US is already doing better, some emerging

markets are going better. You would like the rest of the world not to be

dependent on China so much. But the IMF has marked down its forecasts

for global growth nine years in a row. The rumour is that they are

about to do it again. In the early stage, it was the advanced

countries, but for some time now, it has been China. There are limits to

what you can do when a country that big is slowing down.

Richard Hunter is Head of Research at Wilson King

Does he have a point? We have had guests on the show and other

programmes where I have heard them go, Beijing says growth is

officially around 7%, but realistically, on the ground, it is

probably 4%. What is your take on that? That is possibly true. Some of

the UK blue chips doing business out there would save 4% would be more

realistic. That said, given the exponential growth China has been

having, that is a number that a lot of countries would wish for. What

about the banking system? Everyone compares this with what happened in

2008, but the banking system in China is not tied into the western

banking system. It is different. It has without question had a number of

stimuli. China is going through a transformation from rural to urban.

This will take the next decade and as time goes on, we will realise

more and more that the Chinese do not look at their economy as we do

in the US and UK on a quarterly basis. They have decade views mind.

Any short-term bonds, there will be less concerned about. They might be

less concerned about short-term bumps in the road, but how much of

an impact does China, as the world's second largest economy, if it hits

those bumps, do we elsewhere feel that? Of course. There are ripples

in other economies. Generally speaking, when we have such anaemic

growth elsewhere, it is the likes of China that we look to to keep the

growth going. Richard, you are going to come back and talk through the

papers, like these young pilots flying is around.

The former head of the International Monetary Fund, Rodrigo Rato,

is to go on trial on charges of corruption.

The allegations date from when Mr Rato was chairman

of the one of Spain's biggest banks, Bankia.

It's claimed Mr Rato, and 65 other executives,

spent $13.5m on personal expenses while working at Bankia.

Mr Rato had also previously served as Spain's economy minister.

A Singapore based firm has acquired a 49% stake in Rolling Stone,

the magazine widely known as the voice of music

Bandlab Technologies aims to expand Rolling Stone's business

The Singapore firm has a portfolio of companies, including retail

operations in the music industry which it hopes will contribute

to the continued growth of the magazine

The messaging app Snapchat has announced its first gadget -

For a hip young company, it's chosen a rather

The glasses can record up to 30 seconds of video at a time and go

As part of the announcement, Snapchat is renaming itself

Snap Inc, underlining the company's ambition to go beyond

wine list used to be an old-fashioned word as well but that

is not now. Let's look at the BBC page here. Monarch Airlines is one

of the UK-based airline 's. With a lot of rumours that it is going

under. We don't know where they started, but this engine talk about

the Monarch engineers, who works tipped off yesterday afternoon, so

they raced into work to pick up their tools. There are reports that

some monarch claims sitting on the ground are being guarded. Looking at

social media, a lot of tweets are coming from pilots saying that the

planes are taking off, and they are saying to stop the rumours. Talking

of flying, would you hop in a plane with a 19-year-old pilot? As young

as you! Jamie! I can fly a simulator.

Because India has India launched eight satellites into

In recent months, the country has been launching an increasing number

of foreign satellites, earning $120m in the process.

I guess they have to show that they are earning money, because there was

probably some controversy about a country where a large chunk of its

population are still trying to feed themselves daily. And they have this

space programme? That's right. It is a country that has often faced

criticism for funding a space programme when we have so many other

problems to deal with. Increasingly, though, India's space agency, when

they have a launch for an Indian satellite - even today, the purpose

of that launch was to put a weather forecasting satellite into space,

which was for national purposes. But they always have some extra space in

the vehicle, and they are trying to feel that extra space with

satellites from foreign companies which pay India's space agency to

carry them along. So far, including the five this morning, India has

launched 79 foreign satellites. They have already secured deals to launch

dozens more foreign satellites, and they are looking at it as a way to

make their own operations more cost-effective. If you look

globally, the need for space satellite launches has been

increasing. There are companies that don't just want to put one or five

satellites into space, but a constellation anywhere between 24

and a satellites, and they can't always afford a satellite launch of

their own. That is why they need to piggyback onto launches by countries

like India and other space-faring nations. And there are even private

companies like space X. Let's look at what the market is doing.

We have seen a lot of optimism after Wednesday's decision from the

Federal open markets committee not to raise interest rates. That seems

to have been put off till later in the year.

I think this will feed through into Europe as well. This was the end of

last week. There are a few nerves about the election coming up as

well. Samira Hussain

has the details about what's ahead On Monday, the first of three US

presidential debates between Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton

and the Republican nominee Donald Trump. The presidential candidates

will be tackling three major themes, one of which will be achieving

prosperity. The 67th annual International astronautical

conference will be meeting in Mexico. The conference runs until

Wednesday, but interestingly, the SpaceX CEO will be laying out his

plans to colonise Mars. Finally, the well's largest cruise ship operator

Carnival will be reporting earnings. Investors will be paying close

attention to any possible changes to Carnival's financial outlook for the

rest of the year. It would be a response to global economic events

that are really affecting consumer confidence. Let's talk oil.

Spencer Welch is director of oil markets at IHS.

The gathering at Doha failed to come to an agreement on whether to freeze

production or not. I think the Saudis were cheeky to say they would

only do it if Iran did it. But I think Iran is now playing catch-up

and needs to get its economy up and running. There is no hope in heck

that Iran is going to limit its production at the moment? I think

you're right. It is unlikely that there will be a deal at the current

meeting in Algiers. It is not a formal Opec meeting. It is a meeting

of the International energy for. It just happens that most oil producers

are there, so they will talk about the situation. But the way Saudi has

treated this was to gain market share. Have they succeeded? Yes. In

November 2014... Too so why can't they let the press go back up again?

They would like the oil price to go up, but it is taking than expected.

US production has been in decline. Saudi production has been

increasing, so they have been gaining market share, but the price

of recovery has not kicked off. If Saudi production was cut back, would

that not push prices up? They tried that in the '80s and it took ten

years. So if they cut production, they will lose market share. But

even if they freeze production, which is what they are talking

about, you would be freezing at record levels. They are turning this

stuff out like there is no tomorrow. Absolutely. People talking about

freezing are already at high production levels. So that will not

make much difference to the market. Still to come -

is the future electronic? Could you soon be casting your

ballot by pressing a button We'll speak to a leader in the field

of electronic voting You're with Business

Live from BBC News. And now a look at some

of the stories from around the UK- and the airline Monarch has been

forced to respond to rumours it's Our Business Correspondent Dominic

O'Connell has more on this - We were both wondering, engineers

were tipped off yesterday. They raced back to work and grabbed their

tools. Do we know whether rumours came from? It started last night

when reports on social media two aircraft had been brought across

from America to bring passengers back from resorts in case Monaarch

got into trouble. Next-day, it celebrates its 50th anniversary of

taking passengers to the Mediterranean. It released a

statement this morning, I don't know if it was in talks with the Civil

Aviation Authority last night, but a statement says it is in talks with

its current stakeholders about a new financial investment. And that would

set aside the CAA demand. Airlines need to have three months cash at

hand to continue flying. So at the moment it looks like Monaarch will

live to fly another day. It has had a rather chequered past? , Yes it is

part of the old package industry, when you flew with the airline you

booked accommodation with. It has been struggling, reinvented itself a

couple of times, but two years ago in nearly went bust. It was sold to

a new private owner and it has been enjoying a new lease of life. But

one of its strengths, in the western Mediterranean, terrorist attacks in

Turkey and Egypt have really hit it hard. Thanks very much indeed. Just

before we move on, we like this story. He thought BHS was dead, but

it is being brought back to life online. That's not bad. Online is

the future, they say. Our top story - a former

International Monetary Fund Chief economist says that a slowdown

in China poses the biggest threat A quick look at how

markets are faring. We had a good week with gains all

round. And now let's get the

Inside Track on the future of the democratic process -

casting electronic votes. Today we're talking

to an industry leader. Smartmatic provides technology

and services to six using electronic voting

systems: Belgium, Brazil, Estonia, the Philippines,

USA and Venezuela. The company has managed elections

across five continents and processed But critics are quick to warn

that these sorts of systems can be vulnerable to cyber attacks -

and we've had very high profile breaches recently, including Yahoo

and the Clinton campaign. They are wondering whether the

ballots can be vulnerable. Antonio Mugica, chief executive

of Smartmatic is here. There are critics, what breaches

have you had in that 3.7 billion votes. , Not even once in 12 years.

How people tried, but you have to have the security systems? Yes, you

have two things, you have to take security seriously, which we do. And

then protecting an election system is more simple than many other

systems. It only goes live for a few hours and it gives you a big

advantage over hackers. What is interesting about this, does it

change the habit of voters. Does it change the way they behave?

Additional study is needed, but you make the voter more accessible and

you make it easier for people with disabilities to vote, for senior

people and illiterate people to vote. You bring in more inclusion

and that has been extensively demonstrated. We have a big election

coming up, and the world is watching very closely. The US presidential

elections. The US uses a form of electronic voting. But there are

differences, explained that. The US is a peculiar case because they use

a lot of technology everywhere, but their technology is quite old. Their

systems were developed ten to 15 years ago and they need a

significant upgrade, which hasn't happened yet. Are electronic voting

systems more popular in new democracies? In old democracies we

have a settled way of doing things and it seems to work. New

democracies, they think it is modern, secure and we go with this,

is that where your market is? The largest user of the electronic

voting is the United States. But it is not fully committed and gone the

whole way to electronic voting? It is going the whole way, but it is

just outdated. We are talking to more than 40 different countries

that at some stage, they are making their voting digital. This is a

gradual process. What is the biggest obstacle, security? No, the biggest

obstacle is political will and a certain lack of momentum by some

politicians. Is there a vested interest among politicians? The

whole world works differently, but in some emerging markets, you could

say those committing fraud don't want the fraud to go away, so they

wouldn't want to bring in something that makes the system more

transparent. Some older democracies, it is more about being afraid, risk

averse. Don't touch anything because we will get in trouble. Great stuff,

we appreciate your time. In a moment we'll take a look

through the Business Pages but first here's a quick reminder of how

to get in touch with us. Our pages where you can stay ahead

with the breaking business news. We will keep you up-to-date with the

latest details with insight and analysis from the BBC's team of

visitors from around the world. We want to hear from you. Get Involved

on the BBC live web page. On Twitter, and you can find us on

Facebook on BBC business news. Richard Hunter is back to go through

the papers. We have lots of a tweet on easyJet and does age matter. Ryan

says age doesn't matter but he wants his pilot to be old enough to rent a

car in the US. We all go through the same training scheme and when you

ask, you are just another pilot. Someone else says Battle of Britain

pilots were much younger than that. What do you reckon? If you have been

through all those riggers and past, good luck to you. What about

experience? You could apply that to anything. You could apply it to the

Air France flight, the captain went and had his nap. The vice captain

and they basically flew it into the ocean. Does experience count for

something? Maybe it does. I am only guessing there is only a certain

level that can take you to, but these individuals have done very

well. Good luck to them. What is the story want to talk about? At the

Brexit one. It is in the Financial Times, people in the city are more

worried we will have a hard line over Brexiter not get this kind of

things people in the city once. The banks having a passport to do

business. This is basically going to get worse as time goes on. At this

stage we have no details. It is inevitably causing uncertainty. The

passport thing is a big question. There was a report last week, but

potentially the passports coming in, exceeded the passports going out,

which could change the game. But whatever happens and what comes out

of this, the sooner the better, it is part of the UK's GDP, the

financial services industry. It has got to be the top of the agenda.

Richard Hunter, always a pleasure. Short and sweet, sorry about that.

That is it from us today, more businesses throughout the day. We

will see you soon. Goodbye.