03/10/2016 BBC Business Live

This is Business Live from BBC News with Sally Bundock

A make or break week for Deutsche Bank -

it's boss John Cryan is expected to negotiate deals on job losses

in Germany as well as try to negotiate a much smaller legal

Live from London, that's our top story on Monday 3 October.

Leading German firms have rushed to defend Deutsche Bank

amid concerns over the troubled lender's financial health.

Executives from Siemens, Daimler, Munich Re and BASF all say

The UK's Chancellor, Philip Hammond, is expected to say

at the Conservative party conference today that he will manage

the economy in a different way to his predecessor,

Markets today, a public holiday in Germany. Elsewhere at a slight

uptake but sterling has been falling. We will tell you why.

We will be getting the inside track on how a Japanese fashion brand is

hoping not to get lost in translation, as it makes a move into

Europe. And it used to be a British tradition to put the kettle on for a

cup of tea during the break of your favourite TV shows, but not any more

according to the main energy supplies. People say more people use

on demand and catch up services to watch television. So we want to know

from you, how much live television do you watch? Maybe you are watching

now. Use the hashtag BBC live. A warm welcome to the programme. I

hope you have your cup of tea or coffee latte or whatever you are

drinking right now. We have a packed programme with plenty to discuss. We

are starting with the fact it is another pivotal seven days for

Deutsche Bank following a week in which shares

in the German lender fell Deutsche is in the process

of negotiating a 14 billion dollar fine in the US for mis-selling

mortgage-backed bonds in the lead up Over the weekend, German business

leaders have come out These include the engineering

conglomerate Siemens and the parent company of Mercedes-Benz,

Daimler. Last week, Deutsche's chief

executive John Cryan moved to reassure staff

about the bank's financial position, stating that the fall in share price

was due to what he called Following reports that Deutsche

could reach a far smaller settlement with US authorities,

the company's New-York listed shares It's also reported he's poised

to reach a deal with labour unions in Germany this week paving the way

for job cuts in its home market. He is Senior Analyst,

Lafferty Ratings. welcome to the programme, good to

have you with us. Just before we get into the nuts and bolts, can you

remind people around the world watching, Deutsche Bank, a

relatively small bank in a global scale, but everyone seems to think

it is the most dangerous bank in the world. Can you explain why? I think

it is probably to do with its derivatives book. It does have a

large amount of derivatives on it. That means their linkage is between

lots of different banks, so lots of banks would be counterparties. If

something happened to Deutsche there would be a knock-on effect? Yes, it

could injure the system. It probably has a bigger systemic risk. On

Friday they wrote an e-mail to the staff saying it's speculation. That

it was rumours, but that is not the case, this is a bank in trouble?

Well, the investors have only been willing to pay 30 cents for every

euro worth of up value on Deutsche Bank's books. They are certainly

worried about something. Whether they are worried about short-term or

long-term... I'm not saying, my worries are more in the long term,

that I worry about Deutsche Bank's strategy and culture and whether it

has a business model that can earn decent returns over the long-term.

Many share your worries about the outlook of Deutscher. But the recent

appointment of the boss at the bank... Do you think he will pull

off the renegotiated deal with the Department of Justice? We're looking

at a five point for your rope bill instead of a 14 year and -- your row

bill. I don't know. A very political times this, isn't it? Yes. It does

look good he will get that figure down significantly from the original

14 billion or something. That is much more manageable for Deutsche

Bank's books, going forward. Deutsche is still a bank... You are

telling us something very interesting before we came an hour.

You said your research shows that smaller banks in Europe, around the

world, operate much better than the big banks because Deutsche Bank is

still, I would say, one of those banks that is too big to fail. They

can't let this bank fail? No, it's not going to fail, but in the long

term I would... We are seeing some excellence from smaller banks and

banks that are decentralised, like the bank in Sweden. It operates on a

decentralised basis, so it's like a series of smaller banks. There is

some real excellence there. In the long term that is a threat to

Deutsche because they are outperforming Deutsche. They do

outperform the bigger banks. We appreciate your time, thank you for

joining us. We will keep an eye on that and any

news coming out of Deutsche about job losses or any deal with the

United States and we will fill you in.

The electric carmaker Tesla, says deliveries more than doubled

in the three months to October compared to a year ago.

Tesla is yet to make a profit and is facing criticism

after its autopilot system was linked to several accidents.

The autopilot feature makes the vehicles automatically change

lanes and react to traffic, but it is not a fully-fledged

India has ratified the Paris Climate Change Agreement by committing

to produce at least 40% of its electricity from non-fossil

Last December, countries agreed to cut emissions in a bid to keep

the global rise in temperatures below two degrees Celcius.

India is one of the biggest emitters of greenhouse gasses in the world.

I got stuck with the tablet today. Keep taking the pills, Aaron!

What pills? Tablets!

That went straight over my head. IMG, job cuts. We were talking about

Deutsche Bank... There may be 1000 jobs going at

Deutsche in its IT section. Up to 9000 in total at Deutsche That is

what the speculation is. IMG are talking about 1800. This is all part

of the plan to save about 900 million euros by 2021.

So lots of jobs going across Europe, I would say. Let's talk about what's

been going on on financial markets around the world.

First, Karishma Vaswani is in Singapore and Sterling

is down in Asian trading after Prime Minister Theresa May set

a date for starting the formal Brexit negotiation process.

This is in reaction to what has been happening in Birmingham, at the Tory

conference. Investors not liking it, the strength of the pound? That is

absolutely right. The British pound has been falling in Asian trade down

about half a percent after those comments from the British Prime

Minister that the timeline for the process of the separation from the

European Union. You would think given that there is more

transparency, a bit more detail about when this is supposed to

happen, that what Asian investors have been clamouring for, more

details, more of a timeline as to when the timeline would happen that

they would be a bit more optimism in Asian markets today but that hasn't

happened. Even though the falls in the pound were not as dramatic as

what we saw back in June, many in Asia are telling me that's because

there is still a lack of confidence in how the UK is going to handle

this transition, in particular access to the single market. That is

key for many Asian businesses who are looking to continue doing

business in the West. OK, thank you so much. Good to see you.

We can see the markets have. In Hong Kong the Hang Seng was pushed higher

by gambling figures, lifting casino operators. In Japan talking about

that confidence survey and not moving, stagnant among the big

manufacturers in Japan. China manufacturing data out, slightly

better than expected in September. Let's have a look at markets in

Europe trending right now. All of them apart from Germany, who are

shut for a public holiday today. We no movement on Deutsche shares, we

will see how that affects estates later. France up a tiny better.

We'll talk more about Europe in a moment or two.

And Samira Hussain has the details about what's ahead

It is a new week and a busy one. Auto-makers will be reporting sales

numbers for the month of September. Stay tuned for details on how well

car-makers have fared in the world's largest economy. In the US election

news, vice presidential nominee Mr p and Tim Kane well hold their only

debate in the state of Virginia. The International monetary fund will be

holding their annual meetings in Washington this week. And at the end

of the week, we get a look at the health of the labour market when the

latest jobs report is released. US jobs, always important!

Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy for CIBC World Markets.

Let's start with this. Let's start with the pound react reacting in

Asia to what's happening in Birmingham today. Philip Hammond,

the UK's new wish Chancellor will speak. There were comments over the

weekend about how he is going to present a very different style to

George Osborne. What do you think that will do... Will that keep the

pound as it is all adds strength? There is some uncertainty regarding

the fiscal strategy the government. The main plank of the Osborne

Chancery has been removed. Hammond has been saying on BBC radio this

morning about the changing environment that the UK finds itself

in. That is the reason, justification, to change fiscal

strategy. Markets will be watching for the nuances today and also into

that Autumn Statement on November 23, to see if there will be any

fiscal spending plans that will be brought forward to try and provide a

benefit to the UK economy into 2017, because we are continuing to see

these headwinds about business investment, which will potentially

mitigate growth targets for next year. The government has to

potentially step in, to try and limit the damage. It's interesting,

with sterling. We heard about the day in Asia today. Sterling is going

to be so sensitive until the summer of 2019, surely? Yes, sterling will

be inherently sensitive. The talk over the weekend about the Prime

Minister talking a about this reform in 2017, it sets up a difficulty in

parliament in terms of pushing through that. That is the sort of

environment that doesn't play well with International investors. They

don't like uncertainty, which will be amplified by political skirmishes

in the House of Commons and House of Lords. And in Brussels. Yes, indeed.

There will be plenty of opportunity as we move forward to the triggering

of Article 50 for investors to be scared away and that sterling

rallies will be short lived. That will be bad news for most people

accept exporters. Yes. There is always a small silver lining.

Exporters will get a benefit, but if they are importing in order to make

the export there will be quid pro quo. You will take this through some

of shortly. Until then, thank you. Still to come, how

to move your business We get the inside track

on a Japanese fashion brand This is business live on BBC News.

First, let's talk about the Conservative Party conference

underway in Birmingham. The Chancellor Philip Hammond is the man

taking all the attention today, promising a new plan for the new

circumstances Britain is facing after the Brexit vote.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics last week

showed the services sector grew faster than expected.

So was Phillip Hammond, a key figure of the remain campaign,

wrong to warn of financial cases if we voted to leave?

He was speaking to the BBC this morning.

First of all I am delighted the economy has proved as resilient as

it has. But look, we are going through a process, we haven't served

the article 15 notice yet. We must expect some turbulence as they go

through this negotiating process and there will be a period of a couple

of years, or perhaps even longer, when businesses are uncertain about

the final state of our relationship with the European Union. During that

period we need to support the economy, to make sure consumer

confidence remains, to make sure business confidence is stable, so

that we get the investment that keeps the jobs, that keeps Britain

growing. That's my challenge as we go through this period.

Hammond is also expected to announce a boost for ?5 billion

house-building stimulus package today funded through borrowing.

Former Chancellor, George Osbourne, had promised a budget

It was the right approach for that time. But on 23rd June, the decision

the British people made changed our economic circumstances. We're going

to go through a period as I have said when there will be some

turbulence and uncertainty in the economy and it is right that the

Government has the flexibility to be able to support the economy, to

support jobs, to support economic growth during that period. And that

means that we have to reset our expectation about when we can reach

that point of sustainable public finances. George Osborne had set the

date at the end of this Parliament, 2019/2020, what we have said is that

we will not aim for a surplus in 2019/2020, but that doesn't mean

that we are abandoning fiscal discipline.

Philip Hammond there. More on our website.

Leading German firms have rushed to defend Deutsche Bank

amid concerns over the troubled lender's financial health.

Executives from Siemens, Daimler, Munich Re and BASF have

The Goldman Sachs is closed. It is a public holiday.

-- DAX. And now let's get the inside track

on the Japanese fashion brand Kemi. It is a well-known brand in Japan

which is now hoping to become The brand was founded by Junko Kemi,

a businesswoman who struggled to find clothes that worked

with her busy professional life In a moment we'll talk

to her about her journey from the rather restrained

Japanese corporate world Kemi now has five shops in Japan

and a thriving online business too. The business employs

around 30 people. Kemi selected London as their first

international territory due The company's international

expansion plans include other financial hubs like Singapore,

Frankfurt and New York. Junko Kemi, founder and lead

designer of Kemi joins me now. Welcome. Good morning. Welcome to

the programme. Can I start? I'm interested. You came from a very,

the Japanese corporate world, right and let's be frank, that's a very

serious, rigid, corporate world. And it is male dominated. Yes, male

dominated and you have gone from that into this free flowing fashion

industry. How did you make that transfer? I was born in Japan and my

grandmother owned a shop. I grew up seeing her business and she was my

role model. She enjoyed her role and the responsibility and she made her

customers so happy. Ever since I was 16 years old, I dreamt that I would

own my own company. After that I joined a big management consultancy,

a corporate strategy company as a management consultant and after

that, I started my own marketing companies and for three years I

worked so hard as a consultant and after that when Japan suffered a big

earthquake in 2011, I thought that life is short and I want to support

the business women like my grandmother. So I started Kemi. How

easy was it to start? You're very established if Japan. You have got

high-profile clients wearing your clothes, some are on television,

some are celebrities. How did you get to that point? So basically, we

are a very small company. So we are using social media and the customers

friends and friends of friends saw a TV anchor. And tell us about your

dresses. They are not cheap in the UK. Can I hold one up. The point is

they're hand-made in Japan. This is silk, isn't it? This is silk. They

are washable. So I can put this in a washing machine? Yes, everything,

the jacket and the suit and these dresses, we can wash. They would

look good on you Aaron. I'm thinking Saturday night! I washed over ten

times. Wow. That's amazing. London, I mean, was that an easy decision to

decide London is going to be the first? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I love

London and the multi-cultural and the professional services are big

here. But how do you plan to stand out? It is such a competitive market

in London? There are so many places to go and buy things like this. As

we did already in Japan, so we focus on professional busy women and they

are using an online shop first and we are planning to have a physical

shop in the City area of London and in Canary Wharf in one year. Canary

Wharf watch out! Thank you very much for joining us. Good luck with your

launch here in London. Shthis is how to stay in touch. The

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whenever you need to know. So you have got no excuses.

As you can see, Jeremy is back. On demand TV switches off, National

Grid power strike for a cuppa. This is National Grid where it would see

a massive surge when the kettle goes on in the old days, the commercial

break. It is the old days. The idea that we all watch a programme

collectively and we get to the end of the programme or an ad break and

everybody would make a cup of tea ready for the next part. Clearly,

there are more and more people who watch on demand. I watch virtually

no TV live. I watch all of it on demand or recorded. These issues and

it is interesting for advertisers as well, of course, because I don't

watch any advertising breaks. We just whiz through it. One of the

structural changes. It is the main screen or the second screen if you

will second screen being the tablet. One viewer says, "I watch live TV as

long as time is available." Does he make the tea? This viewer says I

only watch Business Live. The list goes on. Due it busy schedule. News

bulletins, if you want to watch those live, but again, you can watch

up with news on the internet or with other media sources. There is the

pause button. You don't have to wait for the commercials. Right. Other

stories... The Chinese. UK shops looking to Chinese tourists for a

golden week. There is a flip side about the Brexit story because we

find as consumers if we're going abroad the pound goes not as far as

it did pre-Brexit. But for those visitors coming to the UK, whose

currencies have appreciated they can get what they perceive to be bar

gains. In the context of Chinese shoppers who are keen spenders it

maybe the case that as we see another influx of Chinese visitors

during the golden week period that could be good news for retailers.

Have we got any evidence that this is happening or is this the hope

from the point of view from retailers? There is a lot of

anecdotal and the foot fall data is variable on occasion. So I think

what we're seeing is domestic consumers are being more reticent in

terms of spending and we are hoping that we're going to get the foreign

visitors who are going to fill the gap, but you have to debate where

the foreign visitors come to. In London, we will see evidence that

through their foot fall in the high street. In regional centres, perhaps

less so. We keep saying it is the flip side, but even property is 10%,

15% cheaper. There is a competitive advantage if you're prepared to take

the risks which maybe associated with the next two or three years.

Jeremy, thank you very much. It is a long haul flight. That's for

sure. That's Business Live for today. We will see you again

tomorrow. Bye-bye. Hello there. Good morning. We saw

some big improvements in the weather over the weekend and it is a very

quiet week ahead as well. This was the Weather