25/11/2016 BBC Business Live


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This is Business Live from BBC News with Aaron Heslehurst


But, with the unstoppable rise of online shopping,


is the annual retail rush, still such a big deal?


Live from London, that's our top story on Friday


In the US and UK billions will be spent today in what is likely to be


the biggest shopping day of the year.


Also in the programme, Iceland versus Iceland,


the country takes on the UK supermarket chain in a trade mark


battle over which should have rights to the name.


And we'll be getting the inside track on the weeks


biggest financial stories with our Business Editor,


Simon Jack -- including governments' push for big spending


Today we want to know will your Black Friday be


Are you prepared to brave the crowds or is it couch surfing?


Online, online. Lots going on, we have that Friday feeling.


We are talking retail, because depending on where you live


in the world you have probably been bombarded with adverts and emails


offering "massive discounts" and "unmissable deals".


There's no escaping that today is not just Friday -


In the US, it's the day after the Thanksgiving holiday,


and it's traditionally marked the beginning of the Christmas


So needless to say it's a huge day for retailers.


Over 137 million Americans are expected to go in search


That would be a million and a half more than last year.


The big change though is the internet.


As many Americans shopped online as actually went


to stores last year - and online sales


Expect that trend to continue this year.


Here in the UK some 14 million people are expected to shop.


But again many will be doing it in their pyjamas.


What happens if you don't wear pyjamas? I didn't write that!


According to one prediction - British shoppers are expected


to spend over ?2 billion - but over a billion of that -


Actual traffic on the high street may even be down.


You of course would be doing it in your onesie.


Ben Perkins, Head of Consumer Business Research,


Running through the numbers, clearly millions will be shopping today,


both sides of the Atlantic. But, how long will this last? There are sales


all year long. Good question, what we have seen a significant


year-on-year growth for the last two or three years. From a consumer


loss of momentum. This will be the loss of momentum. This will be the


biggest Black Friday yet within the UK. It will be the biggest shopping


day of the year. For now, there seems to be some real momentum


behind it. Not the same degree of users from retailers will stop their


challenge is how they continue to capture the revenue growth without a


destroying... It is a tough one, we're talking about sales. As


consumers with painted, aren't we? Since the financial crisis we only


buy when no bargains on. -- as consumers we are tainted. There


always seems to be bargains but how sustainable is that the industry?


You got right to the heart of the central challenge in retail.


Postrecession we have become trained to buy on promotion. Even post


recovery consumers are reluctant to leave this behaviour is behind. With


the online phenomena, it would seem that more people are shopping online


then on the high street when these events takes place. From retailers


it is not just about the issue are trying to survive this, but also


their website have to be extremely robust. Exactly, and this is one of


the reasons why you seemed Black Friday moved from being Black Friday


to Black Friday weekend, and Black Friday week, and now Black Friday


fortnight. The reason is they plan to manage that peak in demand. So


that their website and other things do not fall over. Ever since we


started covering the single stay in China, I look at our Black Friday,


and go that is nothing. In China, in the first hour of their singles day,


only a one-day shop, the first hour was 5 billion. The first 30 seconds


was something likeable in dollars. We are nothing compared to them.


Lots of things are bigger and better in China, they? What is interesting


if you look at it in the round, is retail is moving from being


predictable to being disrupted by all of these new events that are


emerging. At the same time, this year we've seen a Halloween has


become bigger. These pose challenges to retailers that have become used


to that particular cycle of buying and selling. Interesting. Thank you


so much for coming in. Quite interesting, actually. Just say, you


have been really on put on this story. Probably because you've been


online shopping, maybe you have that television on. Ringo EU, not as real


name, says not many bargains in Greece but he is just bought a new


printer. -- rain though EU. Ben mentioned Halloween. At treat the


retail not a trick. Former minister has accused


the president of Brazil, Michel Temer, of pressuring him


into using his powers to help another minister


in a personal business matter. The Brazilian president has


denied any wrongdoing, but the case is putting key figures


in his government under suspicion. Plans to expand Heathrow Airport


with a third runway are set to breach the UK government's


climate change laws, The Committee on Climate Change says


the business plan for Heathrow projects a 15% increase


in aviation emissions by 2050. If that increase is allowed


ministers will have to squeeze even deeper emissions cuts from other


sectors of the economy. Meanwhile places like Istanbul,


opening six runways. In China they build several runways.


Japan's consumer prices fell in October for the eighth straight


month giving the world's third largest economy no sign of winning


We're talking about the world's third biggest economy. No sign of


winning the battle against inflation. Sharon is in Singapore


follows and summed up the issues facing the economy. It is either


prices falling in September. No dig surprise there. But what is


interesting about these numbers is that this is the eighth straight


string of falls in five years. It string of falls in five years. It


essentially showed that core prices, including fresh food, bold about 5%.


This data came several weeks after Japan's Central bank pushed back the


timeline. We know that the central bank's target is a key part of the


Prime Minister's bid to pump up the world's number to the economy. He is


doing it to stimulus measures, printing money. The programme has


weakened the yen. It has set up something of a stock market rally


that has spurred some hopes for the once soaring economy, but it doesn't


appeared to be enough. Growth is still fragile and inflation is well


below the central bank? Target. Good on you, Sharon!


Asian stocks advanced on Friday as the Thanksgiving break


in the United States helped slow a relentless surge in the dollar


that has sucked capital out of most emerging markets.


To be put into the forms of US debt, Treasuries for example. Some taking


them out of that and putting into the equity market. Let's have a look


at constant macro, still somewhat sub Jude.


The FTSE 100, it just a little bit of a pin job.


of the Black Friday deals state side - here's Michelle in New York.


A recent survey found that food gives a more popular than toys and


can she met electronics. With sales on Black Friday slipping, retailers


have started offering the deals earlier. Car buyers may be in luck,


because promotions have been ramped up as they try and get rid of unsold


vehicles. In an attempt to dispel doubts that retailers might have


about consumer demands. The volume is expected to be lied because US


markets only open for half a day and many people are still away. --


expected to be like. Could lead to more volatile trading session than


normal. Sue Noffke, UK Equities Fund Manager


at Schroders is here. Talking about the deflation issues


in Japan, give is your take? It could be quite a volatile day on


Wall Street because there's hardly anyone there, funny time, isn't it?


It is a strange time. US markets closed yesterday and are only open


for half the day. Quite a lot of people will take a nap to the


weekend. So, you're that is a bit distracted and left to its own


devices quite often things are bit muted. We would expect that the


focus to pick up again next week. -- Europe is a bit distracted. Pretty


big record highs on Wall Street. Yes and a run on the dollar I weathered


that pushes or pauses. Emerging malt kit currencies, the central bank is


coming in to try and help the rupee. That is partly about the fact that


they changed their notes. There is always other things going on, but


the big picture if this move out of emerging markets to repatriate those


US dollars. Why is it happening? It is the interest rate differential.


So, Trump's victory means that more stimulus to policies and likely


further interest rate rises. The first US interest rate rise about a


year ago. It is been on hold throughout 2016. December is likely


to see another rise. I rise means investor will get better returns...


They go, great stuff. We will see They go, great stuff. We will see


you again soon. We will see you again. Iceland versus Iceland, I


love it. Our very own Business Guru Simon


jack will be joining us to discuss the weeks big stories from the world


of finance including the take over We've had the mini budget here in


the UK. For the UK, Black Friday


is a relatively recent import from the US, but has now


become a key feature Every year, companies issue flash


sales on the Friday following Last year sales topped ?1 billion


in the UK on Black Friday. Shoppers are expected


to spend ?2.3 million But as we've already mentioned some


big names in retail Ben Thompson is at a parcel


distribution centre in Reading. Yes, welcome to Reading. I'm at the


regional distribution centre for one big parcel firm that is gearing up


for Black Friday. Certainly what happens next, this year 's game to


be a Black Friday for online. 77% of all the money better spent in the UK


on Black Friday will be done online in that means big business for the


parcel firms. You are the boss here, talk as to how important this is for


you? It is not just today, but when the parcels arrived here on Tuesday


and Wednesday and have to be sent out. That is right, today is a


combination of the year's work of planning. Coping with big amount is


our challenge. With hide a lot of people. This depot has 100,000


parcels. On Tuesday B 25 thousands. With a every million parcels today.


Another 1 million on Monday. Over the cause of the cyber weekend, 3


million parcels into our network. Next Tuesday is the single busiest


day of the year, what it is all about. Wonderful, good lock. Thank


you. That would be the challenge. It is not just getting them into this


place but getting them out to our front doors. ?1.3 billion spent just


a day and then of course over the rest of the weekend. On average we


will spend about ?200 each. That is then, apparently we will


spend ?200 each, will you, and what will you buy? Leg over the kids. Cat


accessories! -- Lego for the kids. A lot of business analysis, we've been


talking to the boss of Argos and games consoles were the biggest


seller in the first hour, apparently, overtaking toys.


You're watching Business Live - our top story - it's Black Friday -


where retailers are slashing prices to bring in the money,


but customers are increasingly turning to the internet instead


of the High Street to make their purchases.


So watch where the money is going today.


A quick look at how markets are faring....


Fairly flat, if not mixed picture, Germany and France, maybe people are


out shopping and not on the trading floors, you know how to get in


touch. Pretty dull on the markets. Although sometimes that is good.


It's a bit of a respite after the mad week we have seen.


And now let's get the inside track on this week's big financial stories


We dragged him into the studio on Friday! Good to see you Simon. I am


always in on Friday. On Monday you were at the CBI conference, Prime


Minister Theresa May made quite a critical speech. The biggest


business lobby in the UK, their annual shindig and the Prime


Minister addressed them. They were quite wary of the Prime Minister


because since she has taken office she has rattled their cage bed and


said she needs help to stamp out things like massive pay


differentials and people leaving their pension funds while scooting


off and taking away a lot of dividends, we have seen some


examples of that and she has said that she will give them low taxes


and will invest in productivity enhancing research and development


but they must do their bit and stamp out some of the excesses of


capitalism. She says she is pro-business but not pro business as


usual. The pound spiked after her comments which is interesting


because sometimes after his speech as it goes lower. She offered this


grand bargain, we will keep taxes low, we are in track to have the


lowest taxes of the G20 countries, due to reach 17%, she said she will


provide that as long as business cleared up its act and looked as if


it could reform pay. There's a huge argument about business


differentials at the moment. She promised that she was pro-business


and by and large they bought into that. Although a lot of that was


aimed at small to medium-sized businesses, the backbone of any


economy as opposed to big household corporate names? By lowering their


tax rates, when I speak to SMEs they care about things like the


administrative burden, the minimum wage in the UK is set to rise of


April next year and go to ?8 80 by the end of parliament, they have


auto enrolment, they are being forced to provide pensions. A lot of


stuff to deal with. They ask, can we just have some stability, no more


tricks and no surprise in the Autumn Statement. Let's talk about the


Autumn Statement, the mini budget. On Wednesday Chancellor Philip


Hammond had all sorts of rabbits to pull out of hats. I think the


biggest takeaway from this was not so much his measures but there was


this independent body set up by the previous Tory Chancellor, this


independent body to look at public finances over a five-year period.


And when that body and failed it everyone gave a sharp intake of


breath because they had predicted that over this period we would see


the highest debt as a percentage of national income that we've seen for


50 years, 90% debt to GDP. It's even worse than the 70s when the UK had


to borrow money from the IMF. A very gloomy forecast indeed. A lot of


people said it was too gloomy and we focus too much on that. Can we


afford it? The government will spend more and borrow more and cut taxes.


Debt as a percentage of income will rise. We have seen worse. ?1.7


trillion is roughly the GDP so 90% of that, if you do the maths!


Measures were announced to try to prevent the sale of start up


businesses to overseas and it happened one day later. Just


yesterday we heard that the darling of the Scottish technology industry,


Skyscanner, which helps you to search for cheap flights on the net,


is being sold for several million dollars, in one way it is a vote of


confidence in post-Brexit Britain, on the other hand is it not shame


that someone else was doing the buying. Philip Hammond set up


provisions in his statement to try to allow British businesses to grow


so that our crown jewels will not go to overseas companies. It is a great


deal for Skyscanner, they can go global, and it's a nice big payday.


The CEO in Edinburgh doing this. They are not in the rupee is


otherwise they wouldn't be any to count. Interesting to see what they


do with the Scottish company, that will be the long-term measure of if


it was a good deal or not. Thank you, Simon, enjoy your rest. In a


moment, we'll be going through the papers with soon. Here's a reminder


of how to get in touch. We'll keep you up-to-date with all the latest


details with insight and analysis from the BBC's team of editors and


writers around the world and we also want to hear from you so get


involved on the live web page. You can find us on Twitter and on


Facebook. Business Live on TV and online whenever you need to know.


Sue is back to look through some of the stories in the papers. This is a


classic, Iceland, the country, is angry about Iceland's stores move.


Just explain this? The frozen food supermarket specialist trading on


the high under that name, and the country of Iceland is upset about.


It is preventing Iceland, the country, from using the name for


other products and services derived from their homeland. The supermarket


says it is their trademark which is very strange. It is and this will be


debated. Whether a definitive decision comes at why has it only


happened now, I've been in this country for about 15 years, long


time. Some previous cases had gone and that this has -- they've been


upheld in the past. It is one for the lawyers. The Times is looking at


Pfizer plotted price hike with two UK firms. This is where the


regulator seems to be on the case. Drugs pricing is coming under


increased scrutiny globally in the United States and also here and


there are various rules and regulations. What seems to happen


with Pfizer is that they have sought to exploit a loophole within the NHS


pricing for drugs that don't have plated protection. So anyone can


sell them and make them, and the price caps do not apply to those


drugs whereas they do apply to more innovative drugs. The price on some


drugs were hiked over 200%, especially epilepsy drugs which to


some sufferers are absolutely critical. They are going to be taken


to task. Warnings of the biggest squeeze on pay for all of us since


the Second World War. This is the Institute for Fiscal Studies. It


looks that the economy and measures of it. And the squeeze is coming


from two aspects, rises in wages, that can be the mix of employment


within the economy so it's a bit like self-employment, people in work


but the quality and pay rates for those jobs is quite low and it's


also the level of inflation, the UK's decision to leave the EU,


sterling will push up inflation that will erode peoples real wages. Have


a good weekend. Thank you for your company, have a good time shopping!


Good morning, some significant changes this weekend.


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