24/03/2017 BBC Business Live


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Stock markets have risen since President Trump's election


on the promise of big spending to boost the economy,


but will his struggles with Congress get in the way?


Big falls for Samsung's shares after the South Korean giant says it


won't make the changes some investors want after its


And markets worldwide are once again focused on Washington and assessing


President Trump's ability to push through reform.


This is how the day has started in Europe -


we'll talk you through the winners and the losers.


Also in the programme - robots are increasingly


taking our jobs, but will it be good for the economy?


Our economics editor Kamal Ahmed will be here to discuss that


Today we want to know, would you pay to tweet?


Twitter is considering a paid membership option for businesses


and power users - what do you think?


Get in touch with us, we do love to hear from you.


We start in the US, where President Trump is battling


to deliver on one of his biggest election promises,


and to hang on to his credibility with investors.


Late on Thursday, Republicans were forced to delay a vote


in the House of Representatives on scrapping and replacing


the healthcare reforms known as Obamacare becuase they struggled


to drum up enough support across their own party.


Mr Trump is now trying to force a vote this afternoon,


On Wall Street it's being seen as a key test


The concern is if he can't deliver on scrapping Obamacare,


his other plans for massive tax cuts and spending hikes may not get


Let's just show you the scale of the expectation that has built up.


$2.2 trillion has been added to the value of US shares


since Trump was elected, in a rally of historic proportions.


If you take a look at the Dow Jones industrial average,


it has soared since the election in November.


As of the start of this week, it had gone up 14%


The financial sector has been the biggest winner -


that's because the President has promised to review


the strict regulations brought in after the financial crisis,


The Dow's index of bank shares has soared 17%.


Mike Jakeman is a Global analyst at The Economist Intelligence Unit.


Thank you for joining us this morning. So much of this market


growth has been delivered on a sense of expectation, hope. Is it starting


to look like President Donald Trump cannot quite strike a deal in


Congress the way the businessman was able to do in the commercial sector?


Yes, you can understand the reasons the business community were


optimistic about Donald Trump because we had a unification of the


President with a Republican president and Republican majorities


in both houses, it looked as if it could be a relatively smooth passage


by legislation but that overlooks the fact that could -- -- club is


not a traditional mainstream Republican and the party itself is


quite ideological split. We have seen this with the help depot, there


are moderate politicians whose constituents have been using


Obamacare the years, they are keen to keep as much as what they have


been using on the table as possible, then there are the right wing who


are obviously ideological opposed to Obamacare and want the whole thing


God. Trump is in the middle of this trying to get it through as tricky


as he can, losing votes on one side, gaining on the other. Repealing


Obamacare was central to his campaign for the presidency. If he


cannot deliver on this, that will spook the market in terms of


delivering on tax cuts, promised infrastructure spending. If you


cannot deliver, what will that mean? I would not be too worried about


that yet. For a start, we knew there would be problems with getting


things through Congress because of the way the party is split, and


health care is a divisive issue. We might


find there is a greater sense of harmony in the party on, for


example, tax cuts, so we will see an issue by issue struggle, some things


will go through Congress quickly because there is unification between


the administration and the party. Other things, issues that are really


central to American life, will prove more divisive. We were talking in


the Green room, you can pack a new president to a new car, as soon as


you drive off the forecourt the value depreciate. This is his


opportunity to act, would you expect him to have delivered more by now?


He has been sold a hospital pass by Paul Ryan on this, health care is


the first issue they have tackled and it is a tough start for a new


president, an issue that has dogged American presidents back to the


1940s, so too are expected to be sold and legislated in a couple of


months is quite a tough line. I think we will see a better pace of


progress in the coming months when they tackle issues that are not


quite as difficult. Briefly, do you think it will pass today? Not


necessarily today but in the next few weeks they will get something


through. Thank you for your time. That is the


focus for the markets, we will talk more about that later. Let's look at


some of the stories. Twitter is considering adding


a paid membership option The micro-blogging service,


which has struggled to grow its user base in recent years,


is carrying out surveys to "assess But it has not made any


indication it is considering Twitter's active user


base has plateaued, and advertising revenues,


currently the firms only meaningful Send us your thoughts on this via


Twitter, if you like, and we will share them with you later.


The Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has said allies will not have to choose


between favoring China and the United States,


despite tensions between the two super-powers.


He was speaking during a visit to Australia where he oversaw the


signing of bilateral trade agreements. Australia is China's


biggest export market. The European lender Credit Suisse


raised bonuses by 6% in 2016, according to the company's


latest annual report. The Swiss bank recorded a loss


of $2.4 billion last year, but the report said that the payouts


were necessary in The increase defies a recent


trend towards smaller We can see that FTSE here holding


steady, it has been open for almost 40 minutes, mentioning as we had


lined with, analysts keeping an eye on the vote by US lawmakers on


health care, a key test of Donald Trump's political agenda, so much


expectation and hope built up in the markets. If he cannot get this


through, what will that mean? It's been another tense day


for electronics giant Samsung. It has been facing investors


at its annual general meeting. The company's leader,


grandson of the founder and vice-chairman Jay


Y Lee, wasn't there. He's facing trial on charges


of bribery and embezzlement - which he denies - in a corruption


scandal that has seen president It would have been interesting to be


a fly on the wall at that AGM? Yes, there was a big restructure on


the table and for the moment they seem to have put it aside. Samsung


group shares were down, the flagship Samsung Electronics lost the red .7%


while other divisions lost considerably more than that. The


restructure is not off the table entirely but seems it will not be a


simple and straightforward process. It has been a difficult year for on


a number of levels, there has of course been that scandal and on top


of lets not forget the Samsung Galaxy note seven battery issue


which of course was connected to recall because in some cases those


batteries overheated and caught fire but you have to remember the


sell-off is coming of record high partly due to the semiconductor


business which has gone along quite nicely, seemingly unaffected by


everything else that has happened Samsung this year.


For now, Tim, thank you very much indeed.


Let's look at the markets the world. It has been an interesting session,


in Japan we saw gains because the yen weakened a liberal versus the


dollar but it was not a huge amount, enough to give Japan a bit of a


boost, it has had a torrid week this week mainly because of the weakening


dollar and of course the markets are not sure where to head this week


with concern that we mentioned about Donald Trump's ability to pass


through law. Let's look at Europe trading, they


are all a little bit flat, slight losses. We will discuss those in


more detail in a moment. Let's look ahead to what is


happening on Wall Street. The Mir Hussein has more.


Financial markets here in the US are set for another day of looking


The failure of the Republican Congress to bring its Healthcare


Bill to a vote on Thursday didn't do wonders for the market's


belief that the Trump administration can follow


More delays, or a failure of the legislation, might give


Still, investors will also have some key economic data to look at,


and there's possibly a greater certainty of good news there.


Orders for durable goods, those are longer-lasting


manufactured items, are expected to have seen another


rise in February, this time of about 1.2%.


A closely-watched survey of sentiment among managers


in the manufacturing sector is also expected to post a decent increase.


Joining us is Lucy MacDonald, CIO, Global Equities


Thank you for coming in this morning. A lot going on for the


market, the big focus is the vote happening in the States today but we


have had movement with oil as well, something playing on the markets.


With oil, it has been one of the big drivers of the recovery in the


market, so we have had the Trump rally but also a recovery in the oil


price as well, and that has really been because of cuts agreed with


Opec. Although those cuts have taken place, it does seem that the


expectation that the oil price will go up has meant that the credit


going into the shale industry in the US has kept its pumping and


therefore you have got higher infant 's and so that is now pushing down


on the oil price so it is going to be an interesting time for Opec to


decide whether they need to do more cuts all give more confidence that


the cuts will be of a longer duration. There is an Opec meeting


this weekend so the price of oil is going to be sensitive in the run-up


to that and probably early next week. Give us your reflection on


this week for the markets, it has been a funny one because last week


it was about central bank action with the Fed, meeting with many


other central banks around the world. This week has been unusual


with today, the big focus this afternoon, is in the United States?


It is the first week with a 1% fall in the market on Tuesday, the first


time for 100 days, so markets have been incredibly complacent, the fear


index is extremely low. It is a very complicated index in its


construction but what it is showing you is the expectations about


volatility going forward. That has gone up a bit? No, that has gone


low, so there is a lot of complacency in the market, so over


the last six months we have seen spikes in this index with Brexit and


then with the election, but it has come down to very low levels now, so


you have a very strong market with low volatility and that suggests


complacency, so this week having the first 1% fall in the market suggests


it is just the first crack in that complacency, and that is why this


vote is so important, because of the importance of the whole Trump agenda


of progress, pro-inflation, to keep the rally going. If there is


expectation that the tax reform in particular won't get through in


time, that will mean this whole trade and the basis of it is


question. OK, you will be back to do the papers at the end of the


programme. Thank you for now. Lots more to come


in the programme, including, are more robots good for the economy?


Hour of every human economics editor will be here to explain all. -- our


very human editor. You're with Business


Live from BBC News. In the UK, providers may have


to start compensating customers if landline


and broadband repairs are too slow. Ofcom proposes customers getting


refunds if broadband isn't set up on the day it was promised,


or if an engineer doesn't turn What is the reaction to this?


This is a consultation which will carry on until June and we will not


get concrete proposals from Ofcom until the end of the year, but it is


a significant move. Ofcom say around 5.6 million people every year lose


access to their landline or broadband, and that this isn't


rectified quickly enough. Apparently every year about 250,000


appointments with engineers are missed, the engineer simply doesn't


turn up, and Ofcom says that is not good enough. Also when people want


landline or broadband installed, there are often delayed there, so it


stays there would be an automatic entitlement to compensation, whether


that be cash payment or reduction in Bill, and this will result in


payment of about ?185 million per year. Incidentally it is only


landline and broadband customers, not mobile customers because


apparently mobile customers do get compensated quite well in most


cases, whereas when it comes to landlines it is only in about 15% of


cases and Ofcom says compensation is ad hoc and simply often not


adequate. Has there been any reaction from the


industry? I have not personally seen any but I


suspect there will be because the industry itself has come up with


proposals to rectify this. BT, virgin media, they have come


together and put out proposals but Ofcom says they don't go far enough


so it is back to the drawing board for them.


OK, thank you. Lots of other stories online, as


ever we can't fit them all. Portsmouth and Exeter's new boss to


hold takeover talks. This is chief executive Michael Eisner. They are


holding exclusive takeover talks according to BBC Business. Trying to


think of appropriate Disney movie titles! Bank branches inevitably in


the firing line as banks go more digital. The high-street bank or


branch as it work could become a thing of the past. Read about it


online. Our top story, as President Trump struggles to get health care


reforms through US Congress, concerns grow amongst investors


about he will be able to deliver the economic boost he promised. Now,


let's have a quick look at the markets. They are pretty flat, to be


honest. I would imagine as we get news out of the United States about


the vote in Congress on Obamacare or the affordable health care act as


it's officially known, will see some movement. Having said that these


markets in Europe may be closed by then but we will keep you


up-to-date. The UK's PM Theresa May


is to trigger Article 50 next Wednesday, officially notifying


the European Union And jobs will change rather


than disappear over the next decade as robots are increasingly used


in the world of work. A couple of interesting reports are


out on that this week as well. Let's discuss all of this with our


economics editor Kamal Ahmed. Good morning. Let's talk some big


figures. I think it is a moment to take stock to an extent. This


weekend in Italy sees the marking of the 60th anniversary of the birth of


what was the European economic commission. And to say at this


moment, it has achieved a huge amount. We sometimes forget this was


to stop War, which was successful. It integrated after the fall of the


Berlin Wall, after the fall of communism across Eastern Europe. It


launched a single currency relatively successfully. Any people


believe. We've got to a stage where there is this new fracture. Britain


is about to trigger Article 50 to leave the European Union, and both


the finance minister of Germany and Jean-Claude Juncker have spoken


about what the rest of Europe will look like. John Claude Inker spoke


to our editor and had this to say -- John Claude Yunker.


We will be sad, as I was sad when the referendum


I'm everything but in a hostile mood, when it comes to Britain.


We'll negotiate in a frank way, in a fair way, and are not naive.


There he is saying it's not about punishment, slight softening of the


language of the negotiations start. Also making clear we aren't naive.


The European Union 27 that are left in the European Union want to ensure


that whatever the dealers, and it should be a reasonable one they


think, it can't be better than being in the European Union. I think


that's going to be where the tension is. Much does Britain have to pay in


to be part of any European Union structures, to retain access to the


single market. That will be where the real battles are. Something else


you been writing about this week is robots. The possibility of


artificial intelligence meaning that many jobs as we know them now will


be not done by humans. Two interesting reports, one from


Germany and one from the UK on our future work. If you think about the


big trends coming in Western developed economies particularly but


also other emerging economies, it is the use of artificial intelligence


and robots. The German study makes an interesting point. The two groups


of workers who are somewhat protected from the AI revolution are


high skilled, human facing tight jobs like health care for example,


and lower skilled what it describes as dextrous jobs. Where human


ability to work in teams is very important. The ones at risk are what


you might describe as the middle management, data processing, middle


of type jobs. Those are the jobs that will disappear. The UK study


says up to 30% of all jobs can be done by robots or artificial


intelligence within the next decade. But it does say that will increase


productivity and increased economic wealth. And also there will be a


whole new set of jobs around technology and the type of work you


do, which means these jobs aren't simply lost from the system, but


just like we found with the industrial Revolution when everyone


said everyone is going to stop farming, actually we replace those


jobs with high manufacturing level jobs in cities. That's what they


always promised, there's a whole new range of jobs coming. It does tend


to happen. Economies are actually very good at creating work. If we


look at the levels of work in the UK at the moment, it's incredibly high.


Employment levels in the UK are almost at a record. Economies are


very good at replacing older jobs with new types of jobs. Thank you.


Stay in your human form, please! I could be a robot, who knows! I can


confirm he is not! LAUGHTER Now, many of you who are watching


in the UK may be aware that It's a chance to raise money


for charities that help people here in the UK and across Africa


by doing something funny. Since its launch in 1988,


it's raised hundreds So to raise more I persuaded one


of our regular guests, economist Jeremy Cook,


to part with his beard. There you go, that's


the halfway mark. And thank you everybody


for donating to Red Nose Day. It took years of him! It did. He's


had that beard for eight years. So far online he's raised, through that


very brave act, ?1642. I'm going to tweet the sponsorship link if you


want to boost it. Lucy has joined us to discuss some of the paper


stories. We mentioned Twitter may be considering paired membership. --


paid membership. One viewer says more pay walls coming to the web,


and other way the companies to make dollars. Another viewer says, I


would take down my account if this happened. Lucy, are you a fan of


twitter? I read it but I don't tweet. There are people and


organisations that it's worth keeping track of, isn't it? Some of


them are very prolific in terms of making venues known. Yes. As far as


the pay model is concerned, I think it's quite difficult to go from free


to paid. You could try a premium model like Spotify has where you


start free and then you start paying a little, and then you have a bit


more flexibility about it. If you just start trying to charge people


things, people will switch off and try something else. Also in the news


is the French elections. The latest bit of information you can see that


the defence Minister is defecting from the left to join the


independent candidate Emmanuel Macron. It would seem Emmanuel


Macron is getting more momentum by the day. This is a big story for


markets right across Europe, this risk. It is, and there is a huge


focus on how populism is doing across Europe and in France in


particular. We are just coming up to April and May. It is looking closer


now. A neck and neck between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron,


certainly in the first round. Then in the second we don't know what


will happen. But it does look much closer. Therefore, less concern as


far as markets are concerned. You can see that partly in the way the


European markets are beginning to perform better, as that populism


fear is receding. Lucy McDonald, thank you for joining us.


I think our guests will be nervous now I've been shaving off beards!


See goodbye.


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