14/08/2017 BBC Business Live


14/08/2017

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This is Business Live from BBC News with Ben Thompson and Ben Bland.

:00:08.:00:10.

Japan reports its longest run of economic growth in a decade.

:00:11.:00:18.

Live from London, that's our top story on Monday the 14th of August.

:00:19.:00:33.

Japan records its sixth straight quarter of economic growth, fuelled

:00:34.:00:37.

But could soaring debt and stubborn deflation derail the recovery?

:00:38.:01:01.

Despite being banned in the country for years,

:01:02.:01:05.

a photo-sharing app 'colourful Balloons' has popped

:01:06.:01:07.

up on the mainland - but has no Facebook branding.

:01:08.:01:09.

And a new week but old worries over tensions between North Korea

:01:10.:01:12.

And with holiday season in full swing we'll speak to the founder

:01:13.:01:18.

of one hotel online booking firm who's trying to cut

:01:19.:01:21.

And as airline passenger arrests soar by 50%,

:01:22.:01:23.

Today we want to know what are your flying bugbears?

:01:24.:01:26.

Know surprisingly my biggest bugbear when a flying is the lack of legroom

:01:27.:01:42.

-- no surprise, my biggest bugbear. We start with Japan,

:01:43.:01:46.

which has just released its latest set of growth figures,

:01:47.:01:48.

and there's good news for It recorded its longest economic

:01:49.:01:50.

expansion in a decade. Japan beat expectations with growth

:01:51.:01:55.

of 1% between April and June - that's the sixth straight

:01:56.:01:58.

quarter of growth. The numbers are an encouraging

:01:59.:02:02.

sign for the government but don't solve the country's

:02:03.:02:07.

ongoing financial headaches. Japan's productivity per person

:02:08.:02:12.

per hour stands at $23.45. That leaves it in 18th place

:02:13.:02:19.

in the world, well behind the US on $33.41 and a host of others

:02:20.:02:24.

including Canada, the UK and France. The country's debt has also

:02:25.:02:27.

ballooned in recent years. At more than 250% of GDP it

:02:28.:02:33.

has the largest debt to output ratio in the world,

:02:34.:02:37.

by quite a comfortable margin. Long-term the country also faces

:02:38.:02:41.

what's been described If current trends persist,

:02:42.:02:43.

in less than 50 years nearly 40% of the population will be over

:02:44.:02:52.

the age of 65. Sir David Warren, an associate

:02:53.:02:55.

fellow of the Asia programme Do we take this to mean that the

:02:56.:03:09.

combination of monetary easing and fiscal stimulus and structural

:03:10.:03:11.

reforms is working? It is good news for Abenomics because it seems

:03:12.:03:28.

to be working, this is the strongest growth for two years, the strongest

:03:29.:03:33.

consumer spending for a couple of years and the longest continuous

:03:34.:03:38.

growth for over a decade. You have to go back to the early 2000s and

:03:39.:03:43.

their aggressive structural form of the Japanese economy to find

:03:44.:03:49.

continuous growth like this, and this bears out the positive verdict

:03:50.:03:55.

that the IMF were beginning to give on Abenomics a couple of months ago.

:03:56.:04:00.

What about the long-term issues, taking the debt issue to begin with.

:04:01.:04:08.

250% of GDP. Are they doing enough to sort that out? It is difficult

:04:09.:04:12.

for the Japanese government. This is a massive debt overhang and they

:04:13.:04:22.

need to sort this out, and they have controversially tried to begin the

:04:23.:04:27.

process of putting up VAT and to concentrate on fiscal consolidation

:04:28.:04:32.

and that is controversial at a time when they also trying to get

:04:33.:04:34.

inflation into the economy and get up and prices up. It is difficult

:04:35.:04:43.

for him -- and get wages up. The majority of the domestic debt is

:04:44.:04:46.

domestic, they are borrowing from themselves rather than international

:04:47.:04:49.

markets, the Japanese government won't want to lose their focus on

:04:50.:04:54.

the longer term, but it will be a continuing problem for them. If that

:04:55.:04:59.

seem to like a big problem to deal with, the ageing population is more

:05:00.:05:03.

complex, because the risk that they face if the number of people aged 65

:05:04.:05:09.

and over get close to 40%, you have people were lying on the state

:05:10.:05:13.

pension system and fewer people proportionally paying into the

:05:14.:05:17.

system. This is the biggest problem Japan has to face in the long-term,

:05:18.:05:21.

they need to bring more women into the workforce and the government has

:05:22.:05:26.

committed to do this. This means probably bringing more immigrants

:05:27.:05:29.

into the country, Japan has a very selective policy when it comes to

:05:30.:05:34.

immigration. But they are prepared to bite the bullet and bring workers

:05:35.:05:38.

in from abroad and it means people working much longer. We are seeing a

:05:39.:05:43.

growth in older workers working longer into what we think of as

:05:44.:05:49.

pensionable age, but these demographics are a long-term issue

:05:50.:05:53.

for the Japanese to address. Thanks for joining us.

:05:54.:05:55.

Let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news.

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The chief executive of Australia's largest bank is to retire following

:06:15.:06:16.

Ian Narev has been head of Commonwealth Bank since 2011

:06:17.:06:20.

but civil charges accuse the lender of breaching financing rules.

:06:21.:06:22.

Those claims have wiped billions of dollars off

:06:23.:06:24.

Narev is expected to step down in June next year.

:06:25.:06:28.

After weeks of public disagreement, the UK's

:06:29.:06:29.

Finance Minister Phillip Hammond and the country's Trade Secretary

:06:30.:06:31.

Liam Fox have written a joint article for the Sunday Telegraph,

:06:32.:06:34.

stating that Britain will need a transition deal when it

:06:35.:06:37.

The pair say that any deal would be "time limited" and should not be

:06:38.:06:41.

viewed as a "back door" to staying in the EU.

:06:42.:06:56.

Bitcoin is hovering above the $4,000 mark after surging past

:06:57.:06:58.

Bloomberg reports it has soared on growing optimism faster

:06:59.:07:02.

transaction times will hasten the spread of the cryptocurrency.

:07:03.:07:04.

Facebook is reported to have launched a photo-sharing app

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According to the New York Times, the social media giant

:07:07.:07:10.

which is banned in mainland China has launched an app called

:07:11.:07:12.

It's thought to have been released through a local company

:07:13.:07:16.

Let's find out more, Karishma Vaswani, our Asia business

:07:17.:07:19.

They have launched it, no branding so there is no real connection with

:07:20.:07:30.

Facebook, why was Facebook banned in the first place? As you know, the

:07:31.:07:36.

social media websites in general in China have been banned because of

:07:37.:07:40.

strict internet censorship rules and the tight control China places on

:07:41.:07:46.

their citizens and what they can access, but there's been no

:07:47.:07:49.

confirmation from about this story. But the New York Times and other

:07:50.:07:55.

media reported that Facebook said this launch was something they

:07:56.:08:08.

okayed. You know what this is, basically it is a photo sharing

:08:09.:08:14.

website. In China Facebook is banned, like many other forms of

:08:15.:08:20.

social media, including Twitter. This app which is called Colourful

:08:21.:08:25.

Balloons feels a bit like Facebook it doesn't carry the Facebook name

:08:26.:08:30.

or the logo. It was released in China by a company, but all the

:08:31.:08:40.

Facebook spokesman has said is that they are interested in China and

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they are spending time in understanding and learning more

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about the company. You know that I use Facebook because we have shared

:08:48.:08:48.

some funny in stories. It's Monday, the start

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of a new trading week, but the same issue is what's

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weighing on markets. Asian numbers down as those worries

:09:00.:09:03.

remain over the war of words between the United States

:09:04.:09:06.

and North Korea. That was enough to take the shine

:09:07.:09:10.

off the better-than-expected The Dow Jones and the S 500

:09:11.:09:13.

finished higher on Friday, but both had their second worst week

:09:14.:09:21.

in 2017 last week - In Europe, markets remain pretty

:09:22.:09:24.

quiet for the holidays - The same worries persist,

:09:25.:09:30.

and no one is willing to call More on that in a moment,

:09:31.:09:36.

but first let's head Stateside and Michelle has a look at what's

:09:37.:09:44.

ahead on Wall Street Today. Geopolitical fears dominated

:09:45.:09:48.

sentiment on Wall Street last week. Traders may find themselves busy

:09:49.:09:50.

poring over the latest Retail sales figures, jobs data,

:09:51.:09:53.

and the minutes from the most recent Fed meeting are all due out over

:09:54.:09:59.

the coming days. On the corporate front,

:10:00.:10:03.

keep an eye out for a host of high street names from The Gap,

:10:04.:10:06.

Walmart, Home Depot and Target, all reporting their latest

:10:07.:10:09.

earnings figures. On Wednesday, US, Mexican

:10:10.:10:14.

and Canadian officials meet in Washington DC for the first

:10:15.:10:18.

round of talks to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement,

:10:19.:10:23.

or "Nafta" for short. Investors will be watching that

:10:24.:10:26.

for any signs of increased This Monday, Canadian Foreign

:10:27.:10:28.

Minister Chrystia Freeland will testify to a

:10:29.:10:33.

parliamentary committee. She is expected to discuss

:10:34.:10:36.

the government's negotiating Justin Urquhart-Stewart is with us,

:10:37.:10:38.

of Seven Investment Management. The nick a is down almost 1%,

:10:39.:10:54.

shrugging off the rather dramatic improvement for the Japanese

:10:55.:11:00.

economy. Yes, some very good figures for the Japanese economy, Abenomics

:11:01.:11:05.

is beginning to work, but we have the issue of career and that will be

:11:06.:11:09.

covering all markets at the moment -- the issue of Korea. The United

:11:10.:11:21.

States just ignored it last week, though, and they just went up. We

:11:22.:11:25.

will be waiting for the next stage of this, but the markets are at low

:11:26.:11:31.

volatility, low volume, the middle of the summer, but this is when you

:11:32.:11:36.

could get some volatility coming in and people need to be prepared. Is

:11:37.:11:41.

it time to take some risk of an take some money off the table? -- and. We

:11:42.:11:54.

spoke about this last week, people are maybe watching North Korea not

:11:55.:11:56.

the market itself and this is where we could see a correction. You think

:11:57.:12:01.

about the amount which has come back already, pretty small, but it would

:12:02.:12:08.

take so little for a change. The fact that the United States are

:12:09.:12:11.

heading for a debt ceiling again, they have not had a budget proved

:12:12.:12:17.

and I can't get any -- they can't get any tax deals through, and then

:12:18.:12:21.

you have North Korea, so the investors are being more defensive

:12:22.:12:28.

and if people want to take some cash off the table, nothing wrong with

:12:29.:12:32.

that, it is moments like this, you can take some profit and then you

:12:33.:12:35.

can use the volatility to your advantage. You mentioned North Korea

:12:36.:12:40.

and the stand-off between the United States and Pyongyang. The markets in

:12:41.:12:44.

the United States were not that bothered about it last week. That is

:12:45.:12:52.

right. It completely ignored it, and what they were looking at there was

:12:53.:12:55.

the domestic figures which were not bad, and we had figures regarding

:12:56.:13:00.

inflation and that was looking fairly docile, as well, and there

:13:01.:13:04.

was one big issue which was the issue regarding interest rates. If

:13:05.:13:09.

they aren't going to go up as much as before, that was better news for

:13:10.:13:11.

the market and that overrode North Korea. Justin, thanks for joining

:13:12.:13:18.

us. We will see you later to go through the newspapers.

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Some is not over yet. Even if you have not been on your holiday, there

:13:21.:13:31.

is time to go on one. After the break we will speak to the planner

:13:32.:13:37.

of one hotel booking website who is hoping consumers will cut out the

:13:38.:13:39.

middleman when it comes to booking their holiday.

:13:40.:13:42.

You're with Business Live from BBC News.

:13:43.:14:01.

British businesses have cut back on investment

:14:02.:14:02.

plans as their confidence in the UK economy falters.

:14:03.:14:05.

That's according to the Institute of Chartered Accountants.

:14:06.:14:07.

Their study shows business confidence for the third quarter

:14:08.:14:09.

fell back into negative territory, reversing the gains made

:14:10.:14:11.

Richard Holt is their Economic Advisor.

:14:12.:14:14.

Has this reversal in confidence come about since

:14:15.:14:16.

Clearly this has happened against the background of the general

:14:17.:14:23.

election which introduced a great deal of uncertainty. Probably not

:14:24.:14:27.

the only reason. The other thing which happened was the Brexit

:14:28.:14:32.

negotiations began and continued to be rather unpersuasive and that

:14:33.:14:39.

worried companies, as well, there was also growing anxiety about the

:14:40.:14:44.

possibility of interest rate rises and I think probably a combination

:14:45.:14:46.

of those three together is what is behind this decline.

:14:47.:14:53.

Back in June London's businesses were starting to feel more

:14:54.:14:59.

optimistic, what has changed since then? It's those factors. It's the

:15:00.:15:04.

uncertainty over the domestic political situation, hopefully now

:15:05.:15:10.

resolved. Its concerns about what the Brexit deal will be when it will

:15:11.:15:16.

take place, and people are starting to worry about interest rates. That

:15:17.:15:20.

last thing is perhaps fading away but clearly the EU issue isn't going

:15:21.:15:24.

to disappear for the next two or three years. Thank you.

:15:25.:15:44.

On the website, Scottish salmon exports have reached record value of

:15:45.:15:52.

?346 million in the first half of this year. That is 70% higher

:15:53.:15:56.

compared to the same period last year. The industry saw 29,000 tonnes

:15:57.:16:01.

of fresh salmon sold in the second period of this year alone. The

:16:02.:16:06.

biggest market for them is the United States, while China is the

:16:07.:16:15.

most significant buyer in Asia. Much more on the website.

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You're watching Business Live - our top story.

:16:28.:16:29.

Japan records its sixth straight quarter of economic growth, fuelled

:16:30.:16:32.

But the world's third largest economy still faces financial

:16:33.:16:37.

hurdles, like a ballooning debt pile and prolonged deflation.

:16:38.:16:48.

A quick look at how markets are faring.

:16:49.:17:00.

Now, many of you may be about to head off on holiday, if so,

:17:01.:17:03.

there's a good chance that you may have used a third-party

:17:04.:17:06.

In fact, a study by Cornell University suggests that

:17:07.:17:10.

three-quarters of all hotel bookings were made through online

:17:11.:17:12.

travel agents such as Expedia or Booking.com.

:17:13.:17:16.

While this can be an efficient way to compare hotel

:17:17.:17:19.

prices within a city, holiday-makers may lose out

:17:20.:17:21.

on special offers granted to people booking directly with the hotel,

:17:22.:17:23.

this could include perks like free-wifi or free online check-in.

:17:24.:17:32.

And for hotel chains, third party booking websites remove

:17:33.:17:34.

the ability to offer a customised experience which would otherwise

:17:35.:17:36.

With us is Hotelchamp's chief executive officer

:17:37.:17:52.

I see the benefit of the King with a hotel directly because you can get

:17:53.:18:07.

some of those added perks. But if it's cheaper to do it through a

:18:08.:18:11.

third party I'm probably going to do it through a third-party. You're

:18:12.:18:16.

right about that. What we saw in the old days is that hoteliers sometimes

:18:17.:18:22.

charge higher prices on their own website rather than on a booking

:18:23.:18:27.

platform like Booking.com. Luckily we see a trend that hoteliers are

:18:28.:18:32.

more aware that they should create a level playing field where prices are

:18:33.:18:38.

the same. But still able to offer extra services or added value.

:18:39.:18:42.

There's a trade-off. By putting yourself on a third-party site you

:18:43.:18:46.

open yourself up to many more people who might not necessarily have heard

:18:47.:18:52.

about you. If I put myself on Expedia or Booking.com to get a

:18:53.:18:55.

bigger audience, but you say they don't really need to do that any

:18:56.:19:00.

more, we are better at shopping around? You are definitely better

:19:01.:19:04.

off shopping around. Hoteliers are very good at giving hospitality

:19:05.:19:07.

within the hotel. But they've been struggling to bring the same

:19:08.:19:11.

hospitality to their website, for example. This is where we come in.

:19:12.:19:16.

We help hotels to give the same hospitality level to the website as

:19:17.:19:23.

they do in the hotel. What we are trying to do is to bridge the gap

:19:24.:19:27.

when it comes to information from the hotelier to their website

:19:28.:19:33.

visitors. Quite often the hotelier can give you a better service if he

:19:34.:19:39.

knows what you're up to, and he can give you that by having this

:19:40.:19:43.

information. It's an interesting time to be going into the hotel

:19:44.:19:48.

industry, because when I go away, I tend to look for hotels, but a lot

:19:49.:19:58.

of my friends say they book through Airbnb. Is there still a robust

:19:59.:20:04.

business model for hotels in the traditional sense? The hospitality

:20:05.:20:09.

industry is growing tremendously. I think Airbnb is fulfilling a need

:20:10.:20:18.

that people like to have another experience. Hospitality is all about

:20:19.:20:22.

experience. What we see is that in the current model, where online has

:20:23.:20:30.

such a dominant position, guests don't get the right experience nor

:20:31.:20:33.

the right service level, letter in the value for money they would have

:20:34.:20:37.

got if the middleman hadn't had such a dominant position that they

:20:38.:20:43.

currently have. I can see the benefit of a hotel chain using your

:20:44.:20:48.

site, they can speak to their customers directly, they know who

:20:49.:20:50.

they are, what type of room they want, all those sorts of things. But

:20:51.:20:56.

from a traveller 's point of view, what difference does it really make?

:20:57.:21:01.

The convenience of a third-party site means you've suddenly got a

:21:02.:21:05.

whole array of hotels to book from. Yes. There are maybe two things to

:21:06.:21:11.

say to that. First of all, extensive research shows that most people do

:21:12.:21:15.

look around on the booking platforms, but still the majority

:21:16.:21:18.

goes directly to the hotel website for more information. The

:21:19.:21:25.

interesting fact is 99% of those people will leave that website

:21:26.:21:28.

without making a booking because they don't trust it or they don't

:21:29.:21:31.

get the right information, or they believe they will get a better deal

:21:32.:21:41.

elsewhere. HotelChamp is offering that to their guests and maybe even

:21:42.:21:47.

offering them a better deal. The convenience of the booking platforms

:21:48.:21:50.

looks great from a consumer perspective. Let's assume you go on

:21:51.:21:55.

a trip for a weekend to Barcelona, maybe you paid ?200 for a two night

:21:56.:22:01.

stay in a hotel. The current commission model, you easily pay

:22:02.:22:05.

close to ?50 on that booking. This is what the hotelier pays the third.

:22:06.:22:13.

Imagine what an experience or better deal be hotelier could give you if

:22:14.:22:17.

this middleman didn't have such a dominant position. You make your

:22:18.:22:21.

money from winds and the software? Exactly. Thank you for talking us

:22:22.:22:30.

through it. -- you make your money from licensing the software.

:22:31.:22:35.

70 years ago, Britain ended its rule over India

:22:36.:22:37.

and the country was divided into two separate states.

:22:38.:22:39.

Partition brought about the largest mass movement of people in history,

:22:40.:22:42.

but what has become of the economies of Pakistan and India?

:22:43.:22:44.

Since partition, India and Pakistan have taken different economic paths.

:22:45.:22:58.

India's economy was bigger than Pakistan from the start, because of

:22:59.:23:02.

the size of its population and because of the fact it inherited

:23:03.:23:06.

financial and government institutions. Today, India's economy

:23:07.:23:10.

is almost eight times bigger than its neighbours. But what's

:23:11.:23:13.

interesting is that during the first 50 years, both nations saw similar

:23:14.:23:18.

economic growth. The average income per person in Pakistan was higher

:23:19.:23:23.

than in India during this period. But, since the start of the

:23:24.:23:27.

21st-century, India's economy started to grow faster, widening the

:23:28.:23:31.

gap. This is largely down to economic reforms in India in the

:23:32.:23:36.

1990s when it opened its markets for foreign and private investments.

:23:37.:23:40.

Today, India and Pakistan are the largest economies in South Asia.

:23:41.:23:46.

Trade between the two countries is thriving and estimated to be close

:23:47.:23:51.

to $5 billion. Experts say that if this trade was formalised, the total

:23:52.:23:55.

bilateral trade between the two countries could touch $10 billion

:23:56.:23:57.

every year. We picked up this story in the

:23:58.:24:17.

papers, SnapChat who is in permanent decline because other companies are

:24:18.:24:24.

stealing its business. When it came to the market it was really rather

:24:25.:24:29.

expensive. Almost from day one it was cursed. We've seen the share

:24:30.:24:34.

price go down and we can hear the mutterings from Facebook and others,

:24:35.:24:37.

they can take away their meal any time they like. This is because the

:24:38.:24:42.

scale of Facebook is absolute. It's something they like, a little

:24:43.:24:48.

start-up, it's just the concept. It's not necessarily the

:24:49.:24:51.

intellectual property but the idea of sticking a filter on a video. The

:24:52.:24:56.

trouble is, anyone else coming in and doing that, Facebook can easily

:24:57.:25:00.

copy that as well. This is going to be the strength of these large

:25:01.:25:03.

operations, the same with Google. It will be difficult to come up against

:25:04.:25:08.

them and protect yourself. This is the point when the regulators are

:25:09.:25:12.

talking about getting involved, they have so much power they are

:25:13.:25:17.

effectively Monopoly players. You almost go back to the American trust

:25:18.:25:22.

system in the 19th century. You had these huge steel conglomerates that

:25:23.:25:26.

had to be broken up, and oil companies as well. That's where you

:25:27.:25:28.

saw these other American oil companies coming up. They become

:25:29.:25:35.

almost ubiquitous, they are effectively running monopolies. It's

:25:36.:25:39.

interesting to see that no one is breaking them up at the moment but

:25:40.:25:42.

at some stage, yes, the law is going to catch up with them and say you're

:25:43.:25:49.

operating as a monopoly. Do you SnapChat? No. I'm going to wait for

:25:50.:25:53.

it to go bust! Thank you.

:25:54.:25:57.

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